One At A Price

[Danny_TLDR]

Cilaos Glace
Doncaster 3.55
16/1 (Betfair/PP)

The key here is the combination of a step up in trip, a drop to class 4 and a return to good ground. You can draw a line through his run at Leicester where he travelled well to a point but hated the heavy going. Prior to that he was a good 2nd in a decent race at Wetherby. He won off this mark (118) as a hurdler and he’s bred to be a better chaser. I’m hoping he can prove it here tomorrow, outrunning generous odds.

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[Venture to Cognac]

Good luck Danny

[Danny_TLDR]

Thanks VtC. Wasn’t to be unfortunately. Horse looks completely disinterested. Try and try again as they say…

Rowland Ward
Fakenham 4.05
8/1 (B365)

Another with the angle being a return to drying ground, Rowland Ward was lightly raced on the flat for Ralph Beckett and achieved an OR of 83 in that sphere. He beat Thyme White (OR 140) on only his second attempt over hurdles, then was squeezed out on his next start in the G2 Triumph trial at Cheltenham. Travelling well and flattering to deceive has become somewhat of a trademark for this horse, but runs behind Wild Max and Edwardstone this season have offered enough encouragement to suggest he’s worth one more try in this class. The stronger pace here will suit, and a tweak of the wind could also help with his finishing effort.

Twitter - @danny_TLDR

[Danny_TLDR]

Nickolson
Uttoxeter 3.00
14/1 general

Nickolson went into the notebook after splitting Ribble Valley and Molly Ollys Wishes in an intermediate hurdle at Carlisle in October. He looks the type to progress onto chasing next term but I think he might have a handicap in him before the season is out, and the form of that race in Carlisle would suggest a mark of 133 is very workable. He had a break after disappointing on heavy ground in a class 1 listed race at Sandown and a run in a jumpers bumper should have put him spot on for this. The step up in trip will also play to his strengths. I’m sure he has been overlooked in the market.

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[Danny_TLDR]

Sir Valentine
Market Rasen 3.30
8/1 (Betfair/PP)

Sir Valentine rates a keen e/w selection here in the context of this race. Any one of three graded handicap hurdle performances last season would pretty much be the standout piece of form here. He runs off 2lb lower than when finishing a length 4th in last season’s Betfair Hurdle. He began the season novice chasing, and 2nd place finishes to Fusil Raffles and Malystic have hardly disgraced him. He’s run once over hurdles already this season, and it’s that performance on which the market seems happy to disregard his chance here, but I’d be more than willing to draw a line through that- the ground at Warwick that day was horrendous and it would not have suited him at all. The step up in trip on a sharp track should be no issue for a strong finisher over 2m. The addition of a visor can be interpreted any number of ways, but it would t put me off- And in fact, the cynic within can view at as a sign that they are at least trying to win.

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[Danny_TLDR]

Crossed My Mind
Cork 4.05
9/1 (Betfair/PP)

Crossed My Mind has been in fine form over fences this season, winning twice and finishing midfield in a warm DRF handicap. This return to hurdles represents a significant drop in class, and when you take into account Simon Torrens valuable 5lb claim, he races off a 12lb lower mark than that over fences. It also means he races here only 1lb higher than when winning this same race in 2019. This looks a smart bit of placing, and he should arrive here a fresh horse. With 5 places on offer, it looks a bet to nothing.

Twitter - @danny_TLDR

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