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A case of right place, right time for this over rated multiple group one winner. It happens.
There’s a wee bit of a problem with this assessment though. We’re not talking about some ageing sprinter scrambling home in a blanket finish to win a 5F G1 after competing in class 2 handicaps.
Furthermore, we’re not talking about a G1 with a small-field where one jockey sets a slow pace and steals the race by increasing the pace from the front.
We’re not talking about a horse winning a G1 after his nearest market rival gets a stinker of a ride from its jockey.
We’re talking about a horse which won 5 consecutive G1s in three different countries. We can talk about the opposition being poor, about him being lucky. But if the achievement is so unremarkable… well, how many others have done it?
I’m not saying the horse is not a genuine G1 performer. He is, however, when you look back at what he beat it doesn’t read very well. As for winning in three different countries, well all that tells me is that he travels well and manages to get his head in front of other sub standard G1 performers on three different shores
DOM’s lifetime best was getting beat one and a half lengths by Dylan Thomas as a 3yo. After that, it’s beating Pheonix Tower 4 lengths in the POWales. The horse was both lucky and well placed by connections, that’s all. I suppose he could only beat what was put in front of him which CLEARLY wasn’t much.
So by your reckoning, Zarkava was an average Group One winner, no?
DoM was a very good horse. He had excellent form at a mile as a 3yo and hammered all before him during the summer time. His autumn form is completely irrelevant.
Eh?!
I’m not sure what Zarkava has to do with the price of bread, but whilst we’re on the subject, Zarkava was exceptionally brilliant and beat the cream of europe with DOM out of sight. As for ignoring DOM’s last few beatings when up against the best he ever faced….no, I won’t, and why should anyone?The comparison was that you said that Duke of Marmalade beat crap horses.
Zarkava beat the cream of Europe did she?
The same Youmzain the Duke of Marmalade beat by a greater margin. Ask who finished 4 lengths behind Zarkava was beaten a few weeks later and was well and truly destroyed by Duke of Marmalade at Ascot.
So if you think that Duke of Marmalde ran to form in either the Arc or the Classic, then you need help. And if you think that Zarkava’s form (not her ability, because noone will ever truly know what that is) was much better than Duke of Marmalade, then I don’t know where to go with this.
A case of right place, right time for this over rated multiple group one winner. It happens.
There’s a wee bit of a problem with this assessment though. We’re not talking about some ageing sprinter scrambling home in a blanket finish to win a 5F G1 after competing in class 2 handicaps.
Furthermore, we’re not talking about a G1 with a small-field where one jockey sets a slow pace and steals the race by increasing the pace from the front.
We’re not talking about a horse winning a G1 after his nearest market rival gets a stinker of a ride from its jockey.
We’re talking about a horse which won 5 consecutive G1s in three different countries. We can talk about the opposition being poor, about him being lucky. But if the achievement is so unremarkable… well, how many others have done it?
I’m not saying the horse is not a genuine G1 performer. He is, however, when you look back at what he beat it doesn’t read very well. As for winning in three different countries, well all that tells me is that he travels well and manages to get his head in front of other sub standard G1 performers on three different shores
DOM’s lifetime best was getting beat one and a half lengths by Dylan Thomas as a 3yo. After that, it’s beating Pheonix Tower 4 lengths in the POWales. The horse was both lucky and well placed by connections, that’s all. I suppose he could only beat what was put in front of him which CLEARLY wasn’t much.
So by your reckoning, Zarkava was an average Group One winner, no?
DoM was a very good horse. He had excellent form at a mile as a 3yo and hammered all before him during the summer time. His autumn form is completely irrelevant.
Did you back and lay it for the same amount?
If so and it won, you win thirty quid less commission.
If it lost, you make neither a profit nor a loss.Soldier Of Fortune to the USA instead of Frozen Fire?
Looks like that could be a possibility
Zarkava was mightily impressive again in the Vermeille but I’m still thinking she’s a bit short for the Arc. When you look at her bare form she hasn’t beaten any colts or any older horses. She could be anything and is clearly a top class filly but have Duke Of Marmalade and Soldier Of Fortune not got overall better form? You could argue that point with regards to New Approach and Youmzain as well.
2/1 and below for a filly that still has to step up on bare form for a race like the Arc is not something to get me over excited.
They both do.
Her price reflects the way she wins her races and by extension, the way she would race against the colts, not necessarily her form, which is a dangerous way of betting.
Its not just Ravens Pass but lines through Major Cadeux give Tamayuz the beating of HTN too. Tenuous i know but much ive found HTN lovely to wacth and profitable this year, frankly his last run was what i would call …worse than the excuses.
Paco Boy is certainly not out of this either
I wouldnt take collateral form too seriously wrt HTN.
He can sit behind any horse around and still produce the same finishing kick.
So long as the ground is in his favour.
Compltely dependent on the ground. If it’s good or better, HTN will struggle to lose, if it’s not he’ll struggle to win.
How well did Vision D’Etat win? Was it workmanlike?
It wasn’t spectacular, but the best horse won.
Well at least you’re reasonable.
Regardless of how good or bad the colts are, you simply won’t know how good Zarkava is until she races against them. It’s that simple and I’ve seen over-confidence a hundred times in the last few years re any number of horses.
How anyone can be so certain about a filly who has yet to take on colts is beyond me. We’ve seen it time and time before.
Sure she looks a brilliant horse and sure she could win it, but to call her a cast-iron certainty in a rough race like the arc is naive.
My thoughts.
NA was never going to win on that ground. Manning did nothing wrong, if he let him go, he’d have been beaten out of sight. The horse is a difficult character, but on soft ground in the Arc, I’d be very interested.
Duke of Marmalade looks like a horse who needs someone to draw up alongside him to do his best. When horses come at him, he finds extra gears.
I’m not sure if he’s just relaxing when he hits the front or if he does actually need 1m4. There is no denying that he is a very, very good horse.I’d say let him prove the form wasn’t a fluke before everyone gets carried away. Visually impressive, but to call him the best 3yo since x is a jump.
Should be an interesting Arc…
I couldn’t emphasise enough that SOF was a completely false fav for the Arc and couldn’t see any reason why he should beat Youmzain today. Normal improvement was all he needed today to come out on top.
The die hards no doubt will say it was the ground.
Sometimes you stick to your guns and it pays dividends and this was one of them.
Still don’t think any of the pair are good enough to live with Zarkava or New Approach.
Dylan Thomas granted was a class act but I have always thought it was a case of spomething had to finish second.
The fact New Approach has had a set back plus this result makes me fancy Zarkava more than ever and I think she is the bet of the season to win the big one. Can’t believe 6/1 is still available
Without ever wanting to be vitriolic on a forum, you have lost your marbles completely.
On the Henrythenavigator thread you were extolling the virtues of Getaway and how certain you were that Soldier of Fortune’s win was a flash in the pan. But now, it’s Zarkava and New Approach to take the mantle.
Have some humilty, for God’s sake and admit you were wrong.
In any case Soldier of Fortune wasn’t travelling at any point today and I was surprised to see him finish in the places. That’s not to say that he’s a better horse than youmzain ( I don’t draw meaningless conclusions from races), but I wouldn’t say there’s a lot between the pair.
Prior to the race Getaway was regarded as a bit of a good thing by some good judges. Fortunes were lost that day so I am somewhat surprised why I am being asked why I think he may be a better horse than SOF.
SOFv wont be winning the arc and you can take that to the bank. No way is he good enough IMO
Getaway whipped round unseated his rider before the race, he was hanging to such an extent he jockey could hardly ride him> his head was so far to the right you would think he was looking for someone in the stands and I am asked why I thought he never enjoyed Epsom.
A blind man running for a bus could see the horse was hating the place and if one cound’t see that I think one should give up racing and take up golf..On second thoughts better not as I doubt one could spot the fairway.
I hope that answers my learned friends question.
Thanks for that – I was thinking about backing Soldier of Fortune, but if he’s not going to win, I think I’ll keep my money.
Points one by one.
If money down means that one horse is better than another, then we should all give the game up. I’ve done a lot of studies on market efficiency, but these pertain only to the market as a whole and not to individual/groups of bettors. What exactly has Getaway done to convince you that he’s a world-beater?
I don’t think that SOF is a world-beater but he has won an Irish Derby, won a good race in France, before the Arc came a bit soon.
Then on his reappearance, he’s won a decent race and will improve.Maybe in your opinion, he won’t win the Arc, but to cast it as a stone-cold fact is sheer arrogance.
Well imo, Getaway seemed to be going as good if not better than Soldier of Fortune towards the business end of the race and just couldn’t quicken past him. That he was boxed in didn’t help, but I don’t think he would have won with a clear run.
Given the fact that the latter should come on for the run and it would take a brave person to say with assurance that Getaway is better than Soldier of Fortune.
