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I’d agree with laying dylan thomas if it rains and the ground goes soft. however if its anywhere near good or faster he is unopposable imo, slow pace ont be a problem hes got the speed, more so than anything else in the race!
newyork the point I was making is that DM won 3 of 4 of his (admittedly not the strongest) G1s by 5 or more lengths. I was enquiring whether the opposition of notnowcato was strong enough to justify the fact that he has won by much narrower margins if they are of the same ability.
and since when does not being the favourite devalue a horses performance? Hawk Wing was favourite for the derby, does that make High Chaparral’s performance less good and worth less in the ratings?
newyork Id love to hear you justification for saying not nowcato is as good as Dubai Millenium. In the G1s he won (there was 4 not 3) he demolished the fields and lost only once over a trip which was too far.
Are you somehow suggesting that the countless times notnowcato has lost over his preffered 10f were mere blips and the ones he won he was value for far more than the winning margin?
Flash,
your argument regarding Dubai Millenium seems to centre around the fact he didnt win an Arc or KG. However he was an out and out 10f horse beaten on his only attempt at 12f, does it make him less good as a horse because he didnt fully stay 12f? regarding his ability on grass I believe his 3 G1 wins (on ground ranging from heavy to GF) show him to be top class on the surface. He may not have had the strongest of opposition but in anihalating those he did face so easily he surely showed himself to be top drawer on grass and dirt.Irish stamp the Breeders Cup is at Monmouth Park this year.
At this point I’m inclined to agree with davidjohnson. while she has done everything asked of her so, and done it well, she has yet to prove to be anything other than a very good G3/G2 horse imo. there is a world of difference between that and winning a big G1 race. while its certainly not beyond the realms of possibility she will show the required improvement at this moment in time she hasnt shown the form to do so. I mean after the race at newmarket everyone was commenting that it was the worst G2 race theyd seen in a long time.
surely if the winner of the King George was upto or somewhere near the standard of a Mill Reef or a Dancing Brave it would completely devalue the legends of these horses. If a 140+ rated horse came along every couple of generations what would be the point. Surely their rarity is what makes them so special. rather than spending our time lamenting past glories we should look forward to meetings of the best horses of the day and when the special ones do come along we can truly savour them and remember the day you saw …….. win a derby a KG and an Arc.
ok maraahel beat scorpian in the hardwicke. but:
a) imo he wouldnt have at equal weights
b) scorpion clearly is better over further
c) DT is a much better horse than scorpion imoI wasnt saying scorpion would win, or possibly even beat maraahel (tho I think he will) but that I dont think the horse can hold a candle to DT. Im not convinced by the 10f/12f argument. hes only raced 12f twice won one easy and 3 in the other. form not the best but i dont think you can say hes much better at 10 given he hasnt raced 12 since he won the irish derby.
Gareth: ok there is a lot of G1s winners in the field, that doesnt make them proper G1 12f winners. Sergeant cecils is over 2m4f, scorpian is much better over 1m6f imo, laverock has 2, one in italy and the ground didnt suit manduro last year at longchamp. its a bit poor overall.
I would agree with newyork to an extent that dylan thomas is not quite the same horse this year and for whatever reason doesnt seem to have the stomach for a battle he did last year, in the irish champion for example.
That said there is no way I could oppose him for saturday as I really think he is just too good. Maraahel is so easily held on the coronation cup form by Scorpian I really just dont see an argument for him, its not like hes open to a massive improvement. Youmzain is probably the best value in the field and may be worth an e/w punt as id agree he hasnt been seen over his optimum trip.
A poor G1 it certainly is and for that reason I cant go against dylan thomas, I think even at short odd on he is too long given manduros run at ascot is rated one of the best on turf this year. he to me is the only proper G1 horse in the field.
regardless of acclimatisation deep impact was not in france long enough to have a proper preparation and on top of that the horse was ill and required medication in the run up, if it had been any normal race back home he wouldnt have run but it was the arc so he did. I think the horse was underated on official ratings due to this view of inferiority we have about races in the far east.
But what I cant understand is why the big fuss about Authorized not running in the KG when is already been pointed out that he would have very little to race against and imo winning would prove very little. The far more game route is to go 10f and race the top horses because thats where most of them appear to be at this moment in time.
He may not win, but he might as well try, ultimately it is the arc which will be used to decide how good he is wherever he goes next because that is now seen as the ultimate all ages 12f race. sad for the KG but true nevertheless imo.
my point wasnt the ratings, my point was that in the race was the dubai world cup winner, the previous years arc winner and the only horse to beat deep impact outside of the arc for which he was underprepared and then disqualified. who else did you want in the race? big fields dont always make good ones.
To everyone who has expressed concern about the fading KG, surely last years renewal was top class? Things change and everyone rolls with it. its not that long ago everyone still held the ledger in high regard yet I dont see many people defending it. quite the opposite in fact.
Ultimately it would make Authorized a far better horse in the course of history if he wins a top class 10f race and then god willing the Arc. if he does that he will have proven himself a truly proper good horse.
If on the other hand he went and walked away with the KG in which DT seems the only real opposition I can see the thread already:
Authorized wins poor derby and poor KG so what everything behind him was rubbish etc etc etc.
And one last thing, please can people stop saying they are certain this and so on. I highly doubt PCH pulled him out I think its more likely come from the Sheikh. That said no-one except those involved know for sure so please dont speculate as if it were concrete facts.
With Authorized now officially out of the KG surely the HRA under their own new legislation have to investigate for insider trading. theres been doubt over his running since the eclipse and yet last night his price shot up on betfair and this morning hes declared a non-runner. smacks of insider info to me.
Clive,
you call athletics bent. what do you think the majority of peoples view of racing is in this regard? its hardly been racking up the positive press of late!newyork, Im not saying there isnt a possibility that your speculation has some truth to it, its a cynical view but it had crossed my mind. my point is tho it is just that, speculation. there is always the possibility that thehorse is genuinely not at the top of his game, after all what to connections care, theyve already sold him to the sheikh!
newyork, Im so glad we have authorizeds stable boy here to tell us the reason for hestations over the king george.
Obviously I dont know you are the stable boy but I assume you must have some such connection in order to tell us all with such authority why the horse may not run!
