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As we approach Bastille Day and the Grand Prix de Paris (which has thrown up a number of Arc winners in recent years), here are this Saturday’s runners:-
AIRMAIL SPECIAL IRE M. 3 ans 58 kg FABRE A
ASHKAZAR M. 3 ans 58 kg ROYER DUPRE A DE
AXXOS GER M. 3 ans 58 kg———- (Suppl.) SCHIERGEN P
EAGLE MOUNTAIN GB M. 3 ans 58 kg O’BRIEN AP
HONOLULU IRE M. 3 ans 58 kg O’BRIEN AP
MY QUENTIN M. 3 ans 58 kg VERMEULEN F
PRINZ GER M. 3 ans 58 kg WOHLER A
RUSSIAN DESERT (IRE) M. 3 ans 58 kg FABRE A
SAGARA USA M. 3 ans 58 kg PEASE JE
ZAMBEZI SUN GB M. 3 ans 58 kg BARY (S) P
No Soldier of Fortune but perhaps too soon after his last run. A supplemented German? Thoughts?
LL
Has to be Zambezi Sun for me.
Would have remained unbeaten, beat Lawman and won the Prix Du Jockey Club last time out had he not met trouble in-running. This will only be his fourth run, so the horse is open to plenty of improvement and will appreciate the step up to 2400m.
My ew bet for the Arc and currenly best priced at 16/1.
Air mail special for me, had an e/w bet for the arc when was at 16s shortening now. may not win at the wknd but expect a good run as fabre will have him spot on for the arc.
Well done Bosranic. Zambezi Sun by a country mile. But a bit controversial with Eagle Mountain unseating Fallon after about 4 furlongs. The winning margin was emphatic and it must be debatable whether Eagle Mountain would have got close. Another example of French 3yos being aimed at the latter half rather than the first.
In this part of the world 3-Y-0s receiving 8lbs from the older horses at the start of October , which happens in the Arc, is viewed by many as an unfair advantage.
I should have done my homework first, but I believe 3-Y-0s are something like 13 for 14 in recent Arc runnings. I know which age group I’d concentrate on.
Nail on head ClintN. The authorities will have to address this issue ‘ere long.
Meanwhile Longchamp is alive with the most fantastic fireworks show after the end of racing tonight. Sorry, but the French really know how to live.
Longchamp is alive with the most fantastic fireworks show after the end of racing tonight. Sorry, but the French really know how to live.
I bet the horses loved that.
Well done Bosranic. Zambezi Sun by a country mile. But a bit controversial with Eagle Mountain unseating Fallon after about 4 furlongs. The winning margin was emphatic and it must be debatable whether Eagle Mountain would have got close. Another example of French 3yos being aimed at the latter half rather than the first.
One of the most impressive performances of the season. He tore a decent field to shreds.
After his Derby win and close second in the Eclipse, I thought Authorized was made for the Arc – a good traveller, decent turn of foot and proven stamina, but this performance has got me thinking.
I don’t think Authorized has the turn of foot to beat Zambezi Sun. If he’s going to beat this horse, Dettori (should he be on board) will need to be well positioned, make his move coming out of the false staight and play ‘catch me if you can’.
Odds-on the Arc goes to a 3YO.
The Arc is my favourite flat race. It brings together the best middle distance horses in Europe. Very few avverage horses have won this prestigious race. I look forward to it more than any other. I’ll never forget how I felt when Sassafras defeated Nijinsky back in 1970. I was absolutely distraught.
It looks wide open this year and I shall wait until nearer the time brfore selecting one.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I would be very interested to know if any of you out there who do your own ratings saw/have rated the race. I havnt had chance to see the race but was a little surprised to see the RP ratings team give the winner only 118 given how easily he won by all accounts.
I haven’t watched the race but gave Zambezi Sun a figure of 122 on the paper form and on a scale comparable with RPRs.
That compares with recent winners Rail Link (rated 121 by RP in the race), Scorpion (123), Bago (113), Vespone (121) and Khalkevi (114) and has Zambezi Sun 2 ahead of Eagle Mountain and Sagara showing 3 lb better form than in the Prix du Jockey-Club.
He is a contender, but that was almost certainly a weak Group 1 once Eagle Mountain was out of the way, and I am not getting especially excited at this stage.
In this part of the world 3-Y-0s receiving 8lbs from the older horses at the start of October , which happens in the Arc, is viewed by many as an unfair advantage.
I should have done my homework first, but I believe 3-Y-0s are something like 13 for 14 in recent Arc runnings. I know which age group I’d concentrate on.
It’s 11 from the last 15 and 14 from the last 20.
In the last ten years, 69 three-year-olds have run in the Arc and 19 have finished in the first three against 11 older horses placed from 75 runners. The trend is in favour of the younger horses but it’s hardly conclusive.
In this part of the world 3-Y-0s receiving 8lbs from the older horses at the start of October , which happens in the Arc, is viewed by many as an unfair advantage.
I should have done my homework first, but I believe 3-Y-0s are something like 13 for 14 in recent Arc runnings. I know which age group I’d concentrate on.
It’s 11 from the last 15 and 14 from the last 20.
In the last ten years, 69 three-year-olds have run in the Arc and 19 have finished in the first three against 11 older horses placed from 75 runners. The trend is in favour of the younger horses but it’s hardly conclusive.
If the race was run in the US 3-Y-0s would get half of the 8lbs allowance – or less . I wonder how the numbers would read then ? Pride certainly would have given the older brigade a win last year against the 3-Y-0 s ( a group only a few weeks away from being older horses themselves ).
Excellent nights racing!!
ZAMBEZI SUN was indeed impressive but lets take a reality check,Axxos the 2nd horse is no superstar and it didn`t run like a particular good race.
With regards to the ARC my biggest worry would be the horses track sense,i think he will need a lot of luck in running and the “Arc“ produces more than its fair share of horror stories, 10-1 would be about right from what ive seen!!
What amazed me on the night was the objection from Eagle Mountains connections to the winner, i couldn`t see where the possible gain would be?, with regard to the incident itself Pasquier appeared to be nerved that Fallon had given him a shoulder barge after about 200 metres and was thus returning the favour,it was unfortunate that Eagle Mountain went to ground so easy as this type of jostling happens in races everyday………….a great example of intentional interferance was Heffernan making straight for the rail on South Dakota yesterday and the Jockey on Myboycharlie having to take a pull!!
Still,i wonder if the stewards would have delivered a differant verdict had the 2nd been a French trained,all in all having bet ZAMBEZI to rather big stakes i was rather relieved when the result was allowed to stand!
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