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The preview essay for Plumpton’s race has been posted on Fat Jockey (48 replies), Talking Horses (30 replies), Punters Lounge (14 replies) and Twitter (who knows?) where my handle is @HarchibaldS – short for Harchibald’s Sense of Urgency.
For anybody wondering why it has not been posted on by far the most prolific thread of its type (117 replies), the answer can be found in the lounge.
Those TRF articles posted on the 31st of August
Feeling somewhat strange and profoundly disappointed to have not posted it here. Perhaps that will change between now and post time, but if this steaming puddle of arse gravy is more valuable to the site, then so be it.
Most of the time we impart our last words, we do so obliviously…
I have not stated this outright because I never thought it relevant;-
This is not personal.
Certainly not on my part. I do not have any issues with David nor do I recall any. Any interaction I have had with him has been on the cordial side of unremarkable. He may have different recollections but that would be news to me.
Nevertheless, out of being confused as to why the response has not been in accordance with what I might consider to be rational, I have questioned my own part in this business. In short, there is not an abundance of ideas. Best I can come up with is “perhaps I could have been more tactful”; which is dissatisfying. Apart from tact being superficial, I am not asking an absent minded tourist to move out of the way so I can get off the bus, or a child to not stick a sandwich in the VCR. I am asking a grown and capable man to remove an article so hideous that the use of tact would diminish the severity of its offence.
That is actually the exhaustion of my thoughts on my part. A dialogue might help elucidate matters, but in its absence, I am left to merely guess at David’s motivations.
My initial thought was one which Ian alluded to; ego. He has taken umbrage to my confrontation and this has now become a battle of wills. This is nothing to do with the wrongs and wrongs of cheaply sending problem gamblers to predator casinos. This is about winning. Sam makes a similar posit about this being a game, rather than a battle, and an interesting one on clickbait. David may well be “just rude”, but very few people are rude for the sake of being rude and it would be a very hollow exercise.
Any or none of these could be correct. Only David knows for sure and he isn’t sharing the answer publicly. Now the following is said neither out of antagonism nor denigration. Rather, the matter of his silence has become a topic of discussion in and of itself and I inevitably have a thought. My current theory boils down to cowardice on his part. Now I am not calling David a coward. I am saying that this is an act of cowardice; something which I am quite certain we have all been guilty of at one point or another. Myself definitely included. The specifics of David’s cowardice are open to speculation. Either he is afraid to confront this topic with myself, or himself. But in either case, the path he has chosen is to do nothing and wait for this to blow over – which it eventually will.
To be frank, I do not care why my concerns have been ignored, nor do I care about who has ignored them. It is not something I will be thinking about in a few weeks’ time.
I absolutely want to stay here mostly because of the people, but also because it is where I have probably learned the most about the sport over a not insignificant portion of my lifetime. (Not to mention the tremendous amount of amusement). My passion for the sport has been very well served by this forum over the years and it is a service that I wish to perpetuate to the best of my abilities.
But not at the expense of some very rudimentary principles.
If I leave, it will inevitably be with a heavy heart. However, it probably won’t be something that I give much thought when I am on my deathbed reflecting on loves, losses, achievements, failures and everything in between. If beating me is something you will hold up as a great accomplishment during your twilight hours, then you probably need this victory more than anybody could fathom. But if it is not, then just delete the article.
Worth a shot!
It would be quite amusing and perfectly acceptable if the response is something along the lines of “Oh dear, I hadn’t noticed. Yes that is rather bad. Thank you for bringing it to my attention, it has been removed.”
A fairly interesting looking race at this stage.
Likewise, I will not derive any pleasure whatsoever from leaving.
I am a little surprised that there has been no dialogue on the matter, which leads me to suspect that the decision has already been made. I sincerely hope that this will not be one of my last posts on here, but if it is, I would be interested in an explanation for why this was allowed to happen for the sake of one grotesquely offensive and possibly illegal article. Particularly as I find it difficult to believe that TRF would not have survived but for the posting of same.
Hi Matron
If there is something he wishes to discuss with me in private then I can do so in confidence and grant the courtesy of discretion. However, anything I have to say to Cormack, I have said already in this thread.
Hi befair
Thank you for your frank disclosure.
I am familiar with gambling addiction through both personal and professional experience. I have seen the damage it can do to people and families. If anybody has seen its destructive powers, they would not view those predatory sites as something with which to compromise.
Those sites are on the same moral level as pimps and smack dealers. I wonder if this site was being funded by a pusher-pimp whether the apologists would still be so vocal.
Hi Ian
Ultimatums are neither savoury nor otherwise by default, rather they are wholly neutral until the context has been established. In some circumstances, they can be used for nefarious means; such as blackmail or emotional abuse. In others, they are used to maintain comfort/order for the benefit of a majority; like a bouncer telling someone to calm down lest they be ejected from an establishment. In this instance, it is a legitimate tactic of protest; a boycott.
There is no duress here whatsoever. I am not threatening Cormack’s reputation with anything he has not personally endorsed, and if he has no reason to feel guilty then he has no reason to be affronted by this protest. If that article stays up then I am leaving whether or not I threaten to do so. Indeed, I am giving him the courtesy of fair warning rather than first asking politely, then going off if I don’t get the desired outcome. I do not see how this would be any more appropriate than my current stance.
As far as being a stakeholder is concerned. If there are no forum members, there is no forum. If there is no forum then there is no reason for those parasites to offer Cormack money. A forum is no more than the people who contribute. These posters are attractions; when they post, others will click and read. Like it or not, you are intrinsically linked to TRF for as long as you post here. As am I.
It is a delight to share this forum with literally everybody who has posted in this thread and many who have not. However, much as it would displease me to shed that association, it is increasingly looking like the only way I can distance myself from that vile article.
The “slots” article is bad, but my feelings towards it beyond apathy are broadly those of amusement and a bit of pity. The one advertising casinos not on gamstop is disgusting.
Seeing as the next juvenile hurdle is not until a week on Sunday, that should give plenty of time for admin to ask themselves;-
What kind of gamblers would be signed up to gamstop?
Why do these casinos not want customers signed up to gamstop?
What would be the highly probable consequences of a problem gambler betting on these sites?
If one of these sites asked you to send traffic in their direction, is it ethically correct to do so?
Can it be reasonably assumed that the money used to pay for this “article” originally came from a vulnerable human being?
Does that vulnerable human being live in a vacuum, or does problem gambling affect proxy parties through theft and/or neglect?
How about grief through the elevated risk of suicide?How much did they pay you? Enough to make you comfortable with the above? It was enough to send at least one problem gambler in their direction, otherwise they would not have given you a penny. Sure, if a problem gambler wanted to find those sites bad enough, they would do so without your help. But that argument never exonerates the drug dealer in court and it does not exonerate you.
I do not want to leave this fine forum and its fantastic members. However, that desire to stay is exceed by my desire to not want to be on a forum funded by some of the most tragic cases that blight our society.
I am sure that as much as I might be missed, it will not be for long, nor will my absence cause any discernible damage to the forum. I do not hold any weight here. Indeed, my ultimatum is an appeal to basic decency, and the only leverage I possess is my presence.
The choice for yourself is very simple. You possess absolute power to rid this site of one of two things. Myself, a person who has invested countless hours over the best part of twenty years to this site, or that disgusting “article” designed solely to harm and exploit vulnerable human beings.
You have about ten days to make your decision.
As far as I am aware, the other forums have not endorsed sites where the USP is their not being on gamstop. Much as I detest the legal bookies, they at least give addicts (and their dependents) a fighting chance. Nevertheless, if such bottom feeding behaviour can be pointed out then I will also walk away from those places.
Admin have now had over fifty hours to address my concerns.
I could forgive/ignore most articles of that nature, tacky though they are, as I can understand why they are there. A paid puff piece on some podcast/trainer/syndicate etc would be more palatable, but beggars can’t be choosers.
However, I draw a very firm line on advertising/endorsing websites that are not on gamstop. Legal concerns notwithstanding, it is the moral equivalent of selling crack or heroin outside of a rehab clinic. If the scumbags behind those sites make any return on the investment given to TRF, it will come at a very human cost.
I see that the “article” actively encouraging gambling addiction is still up. Not an oversight then.
Whoring out the site’s reputation for an online casino promotion is tacky and sad, but a lot of racecourses do that anyway. However, such a brazen and obnoxious disregard for even the most basic of ethical principles is not something I want to be anywhere near.
Either that “article” goes, or I do.
Likewise, there is no sense of rivalry or competitiveness on my end. I suppose if it would make the thread more interesting, we could do a thing where on the off-chance that this thread gets nominated for “thread of the year”, whoever has the most winners has the thread in their name… Would be quite cool to finish second to the Ness Ta Rah thread…
There isn’t a divergence of opinion here however as Cabrakan has earned the prestigious “Strong Prospects 1.” (which I am guessing makes him a mortgage job…)
FONTWELL – 4th SEPTEMBER
Seventeen days ago, Fontwell’s juvenile season opened with a maiden hurdle and the three-year-olds are set to return in what is a traditionally stronger contest. Though lacking the star power of Goshen, Blazing Bailey and Mr Thriller, who had all contested later events at the venue, it has been taken by the likes of King’s Wharf (2012), Vosne Romanee (2014), and Talking About You (2020) while Diable de Sivola would finish second in 2016. As such, while the average winners’ seasonal RPR from last month’s maiden was just 99.33, this contest has one of 110.03. The line up here consists of three with experience; amongst them two previous winners, including one from the Fontwell maiden, as well as the third from said contest; two winners from the flat – including the highest rated flat recruit to date – and an racecourse debutant. None of the form brought by the experienced runners exceeds a mark of 100 (though two have been given harsh official marks to that effect), but newcomers can be at something of a disadvantage at Fontwell. In terms of strike-rate, they fare just worse than average, but only Hereford and Taunton are trickier courses for juveniles to negotiate first time. Moreover, in the seventeen runnings of this contest since 2005, five had gone to newcomers, with the remaining twelve having already ran over hurdles; the impact values being 0.58 and 1.43 respectively. In terms of other course characteristics, Fontwell is a flat, left-handed track which invariably hosts its juvenile contests over eighteen furlongs; resulting in winning Dis and completion rates being on the lower side of standard. A couple of these have made the running under either code, and while nothing does so habitually, the pace should be honest without being particularly frenetic. The going has most recently been described as good and with mainly dry weather expected between now and post time, watering will be employed to maintain the good ground.Graffiti bg Gary Brown f7-0-0 (64) 70 j2-1-1 (106) 90 95
Sixties Icon (Excellent Art){A34}(0.82) 1/1 Banksy’s Art 100 3rd Juvenile Hurdle, Market Rasen 2018
The winner of that course and distance maiden covered in the introduction, Graffiti started off over a mile at Goodwood last September for Mick Channon. He then ran twice at Pontefract in the Autumn, finishing no nearer than eight lengths behind the winner in a pair of novice stakes. Following a winter break, he had a couple of spins on the all-weather in handicap company and while he finished last on each occasion, was at least able to finish closer. His initial mark of 71 was quite difficult to justify, and a return to the turf, drop to 67 and switch to Gary Brown’s failed to trigger a change in fortunes as he was tailed off at Pontefract over ten furlongs before looking decidedly slow over a mile when beating just one home at Newbury in June. Graffiti did shape as though he can get the trip over jumps and his full-brother, Banksy’s Art, managed to place third in a juvenile hurdle. His only other jumping relative, Big Kev (3/1), achieved little, although sire Sixties Icon (covered more in Mr Freedom’s profile) does have solid credentials for the sphere, course and time of year. Former inmates of Mick Channon’s have a solid winner-to-runner rate of 24.16%, although this drops to 19.09% when removing those who went to Sheena West; Banksy’s Art amongst them. Gary Brown himself had not enjoyed a winning juvenile from the nine he saddled since Hilali won Stratford in 2012, and the yard’s improvement rate of 16.67% is not encouraging. There was a distinct lack of confidence ahead of his Stratford bow, drifting to 25/1 from a morning show of 8s, and he hardly convinced in his temperament of jumping. Held up towards the rear, Graffiti took a keen hold as he hopped over his early hurdles, was tight and awkward at the fifth and missed the sixth. Though awkward again at the next, he did make headway over the hill and was on the leader’s quarters turning for home. From there, he looked a difficult ride under pressure and did not seem resolute on the run to the line, but while never looking to challenge the winner, Mutara, he did finish five-and-a-half lengths clear of the remainder. The form looks to amount to little as Mutata was a 55 rated flat horse who was well held on his debut, and subsequently a beaten odds-on favourite over course and distance. The remainder were either poor or badly underperformed. Little enthusiasm can be garnered from the clock either with the winning time some seven seconds slower than that posted by a 104 handicapper on the card. Five days prior to the Fontwell contest, Graffiti was given a spin on the flat in a twelve furlong Newbury handicap, but after again pulling in the rear found little when the race unfolded and was ultimately beaten twelve lengths. A recent spin was not particularly noteworthy for the trainer who is zero from twenty with runners returning within nine days. Nevertheless, it may have been a factor which enabled him to justify his being supported from 9/4 into 7/4 favouritism. Graffiti again pulled hard during the first circuit, but jumped somewhat better overall than he had at Stratford; with his wandering on the approach to a couple of early flights, skewing over another pair, and hitting the top of the sixth being the most egregious errors. Having been held up in rear during the first circuit, he moved into third along the back second time around before turning for home within a couple of lengths of the lead, travelling best of all. After the penultimate flight, he loomed alongside the leader while firmly on the bridle and following a jazzy leap at the last, was pushed out to extend a lengths advantage to a comfortable seven at the line. The form of the race was such that he did not have to improve from Stratford to win the contest, and the winning time, along with the fact that nothing jumped all too fluently, supports the notion that the race took little winning. With the benefit of course experience, Graffiti would be quite evenly matched with the reopposing Mutara, although none of the four to have come from that maiden have fared better than second in this race. The standard he sets is largely moderate and though he may not quite warrant a squiggle, there are probably a couple of hardier sorts in opposition should it turn into that kind of contest.Mutara bg Sean Curran f8-0-3 (55) 62 j3-1-2 (107) 87 97
Muhaarar (Lucky Story){3-c}(0.78) 3/2 Ramonex 136 1st 2m3f Handicap Chase (120), Catterick 2018
Making his debut at Kempton in February, Mutara finished no better than midfield on his first three outings. However, in five flat outings since his switch to handicaps in early April, he has yet to finish outside of the first four. It should be noted that these performances came off mark decreasing from 55 and that the winners’ enclosure has thus far eluded him; but by the same token, he has been a consistent animal. He was doing his best work towards the finish when third over eleven furlongs at Windsor in early May and returning to the turf after a Wolverhampton fourth, would twice find only one too good. At Leicester, he was no match for a horse who recently completed a four-timer, and at Chepstow last month, was bested by another subsequent winner. Mutara did little wrong on either occasion and has little to answer for in terms of attitude. Prior to this campaign, Muhaarar had one winner from seven juveniles and the jumpers that appear on the damline prior to Ramonex at 3/2 have been poor. Sean Curran had winners in the division; albeit at a winner to runner rate of 9.09%. None had scored first time out, which afforded lowered expectations for Mutara on his hurdling debut at this track on the tenth of July. Starting at 15/2, having been as short as 9/2 om the ring, Mutara was keen early on, and his being badly balked at the first put paid to his confidence as he was big and ungainly over the remaining obstacles. Never out of the rear, or threatening to get involved in the contest, Mutara was eased on the run-in; finishing over fourteen lengths behind Mucuna. There was ample scope for Mutara to leave that debut performance well behind, and eighteen days later back at Stratford, he found an opportunity which was enhanced by the market leaders disappointing. Donning first time cheekpieces, Mutara’s leap at the first was big, slow and untidy, but though not a model of fluency, his subsequent untidiness was relatively minor and not to the detriment to his performance. He settled quite well and tracked the leader before taking the lead at the hill on the second circuit. While he was being driven all along the final bend, he did not concede the lead and though steep at the last, he got away from the flight quickly enough and forged ahead on the run in to win by a length and a quarter from Graffiti. The form has since been somewhat advertised by the second and fourth filling the first two places at Fontwell, although it should be noted that it was a poor contest where none of the principles jumped well. Nevertheless, it was an improvement on his debut effort in terms of fluency and there was little to fault in his attitude. The withdrawal of Mucuna in a class three event back at Stratford a fortnight ago saw Mutara start the 4/6 favourite in a weak race for its type. However, he had become noticeably sweaty and, having the pace-making duties foisted upon him, was rather sketchy when hopping over the first three flights. Increasing the tempo going over the hill, he rounded the home turn with a three length advantage and appeared to have his main rival, Flintstone, outpaced; although not to the extent that his in-running price of 1.01 might suggest. By the time they reached the last, Flintstone had got to within a length and while Mutara was slightly the quicker away he was worn down at the half-furlong point before going down by a length and a quarter. Furlong for furlong, the winning time was the slowest on the card against the standard, and Flintstone subsequently disappointed when third at Worcester earlier this week. Mutara is quite evenly matched with Graffiti, and trainer Sean Curran did win this race with Talking About You in 2020, although neither set a strong standard for the flat recruits.Cabrakan bc Milton Harris f12-1-4 (76) 83
Divine Prophet (More Than Ready){1-x}(3.00) 3/1 Enqelaab 1st 2m2f Maiden Hurdle, Downpatrick 1993
The renaissance of Milton Harris will be of no mystery to followers of the juvenile hurdling division. Last season was an especially fruitful one with six of his eight representatives managing to land at least one race; headed by his first Grade One winner in Knight Salute. One remarkable aspect of this success is that five of those winners were bought at public auction with none commanding a fee exceeding 21,000 guineas, or bringing a BHA rating in excess of 75. The yard is already off the mark this term with Mucuna, and though changing hands privately, his latest introduction is the 76 rated Cabrakan. Formerly with Richard Hannon, who is also the source of last season’s Wensleydale runner-up for the yard, Genuflex, Cabrakan is the veteran of twelve races on the flat. His career began with a seventh placing in a Newmarket novice stakes last August, finishing just over fourteen lengths behind Coroebus. Later that month, he got to within a neck of shedding his maiden tag at Ffos Las in a race inundated with future winners, before closing his season with a fourth at Kempton. His return came in a mile handicap at Windsor in early April where he was a one paced fourth off 76. Stepped up to ten furlongs, he was within a couple of lengths of the winner when third of nine at Beverley, and last of four at Salisbury. After disappointing in a falsely run race at Doncaster, he found improvement for the application of blinkers and a step up to thirteen furlongs when a staying on third at Bath. In early July, Cabrakan was able to get off the mark on his ninth attempt when landing an eleven furlong Kempton handicap off 74. Settled in midfield and racing off a true galop, he was travelling best of all when turning for home in third on the inner. His response when asked to pick up at the distance was not immediate, but the penny dropped at the furlong marker and he ran through the line to win by a neck twice. The form has yet to be rigorously tested but the second and fifth have each won since. Cabrakan’s stint with Richard Hannon ended with a couple of lesser efforts in slowly ran races behind Caius Chorister, but he was back to something like his best on his stable debut in a racing league contest at Newcastle ten days ago. Racing over an extended twelve furlongs and attracting outside support to start at 14/1, Cabrakan raced in the rear and had yet to pass a rival with two furlongs left to run. He began to pick off rivals going into the final furlong; which he completed fastest of all to finish a two-and-a-half length fifth. He is now switched to the discipline for which he was bought and while statistics suggest that newcomers can find Fontwell to be tricky, Milton Harris has the most substantial 100% clear-round record of all British and Irish trainers, with his tally currently at fifty-six. Pedigree based evidence for hurdling potential is rather thin on the ground. Nothing up to the third dam has been tried over hurdles, although she did produce a maiden winner in Enqelaab, as well as the dam of low grade winning handicapper Mohtarres. The fifth dam has branches which extend to the likes of Turgeon, Lute Antique and Pique Sous from 5/5 onwards. Antipodean sire Divine Prophet raced neither outside of the Southern hemisphere nor beyond a mile. Set to have his first runner over hurdles, the 2016 Caulfield Guineas winner has a largely speed based pedigree, but is a reasonable height for a jumps sire and being a son of Choisir is a positive (Olympic Glory and Starspangledbanner each have 33.33% winner-runner rates while Choisir himself had one of 30%). In any case, Cabrakan has already proven himself a capable stayer and with the best part of a stone in hand of his rivals on recent flat form, he has solid prospects of making an immediate impact for his always dangerous trainer.Executive Pool bg Gary Moore f6-1-1 (54) 64
Churchill (Fastnet Rock){4-c}(0.80) 2/1 Final Approach 150 1st County Handicap Hurdle (G3,139), Cheltenham 2011
Despite being a winner on the flat, Executive Pool’s official rating of 54 is just a pound away from being the lowest in this line-up. Nevertheless, his pedigree and trainer make him difficult to dismiss on his hurdling debut. First-season sire Churchill stands at 16.2hh tall and though never quite proving that his stamina matched his class on the track, his offspring are showing themselves well capable of getting a trip and his career as a jumps stallion got off to a perfect start with The Churchill Lad. Executive Pool is out of a half-sister to the County Hurdle winner Final Approach, and is quite closely related to three other winning jumpers in Genuine Pearl (3/1), King Of Dubai (3/2) and King Red (3/2). Gary Moore has a strong winner-to-runner rate of 36.41% and his strike-rate at Fontwell is an excellent 28.72% which increases to 33.33% with hurdling debutants. He has won this particular contest three times from thirteen runners, with each success being a newcomer; including in 2017 with the 52 rated Lord E which Gary Moore trained himself on the flat. Executive Pool has also spent his career to date at Cisswood, which started off with three unremarkable efforts last Autumn in which he finished well beaten at Sandown, Goodwood and Chelmsford. His seasonal reappearance came in a 0-50 classified stakes at Brighton in early June over a mile and a half on soft ground. With first-time blinkers applied, he started the 10/3 second favourite having opened at 7/1 in the morning, and was sent straight into the lead from the outset. Setting a solid tempo, he was travelling strongest at the distance and although he drifted right and left across the track under pressure, he was always doing enough to hold the runner-up by half-a-length with the pair seven lengths clear of the rest. The runner-up has not been out since, but while the third and seventh subsequently won similarly weak events, a better indication of Executive Pool’s ability came later that month in a Windsor apprentice handicap over an extended eleven furlongs. Running off a revised mark of 55, he once again set a decent tempo and looked the most likely winner at the distance; trading as low as 1.26 in-running. He was caught inside the final furlong and carried his head high in the closing stages before going down by a length-and-a-quarter. Nevertheless, the winner was landing a brace under a penalty and the pair finished six lengths clear of the remainder. He was slightly below par when returning to the all-weather three weeks ago where he raced in midfield off a modest gallop before running on in the straight to snatch a five-and-a-half length third. This effort is somewhat excusable due to the lack of pace and a possible lack of fitness. While there is a class deficit for Executive Pool to overcome, he is still a largely unexposed improver with some fine attributes for a hurdling career. A respectable hurdling debut would not be unexpected, although there is a concern over the yard’s recent form.Mr Freedom bg Sheena West f7-0-0 (53) 57 j1-0-1 (-) 75 77
Sixties Icon (Sayif){9-c}(0.52) 4/1 Zero 128 1st 2m3½f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (112), Ascot 2007
As mentioned in Graffiti’s profile, juveniles that leave Mick Channon for Sheena West have a better record than those who go elsewhere and the same can be said for where Sheena West sources her juveniles. Her record for those from outside this connection reads as one winner from fourteen whereas those moving from West Ilsley to Falmer have an impressive winner-to-runner rate of 38.46%. Seven of these winners were rated 53 or less, which is encouraging for the latest to make that journey. Mr Freedom cost just £800 as a yearling, and after being beaten eleven lengths at Sandown on his debut last June, was beaten nineteen and fifteen lengths at Kempton and Salisbury before being put away for the winter. In May came his return in a Bath mile handicap off 59 for which he attracted outside support; starting at 10/1 having opened at twice the price in the morning. Pulling hard in the early stages, he struggled for room in the final couple of furlongs and though he only managed an eighth place finish, he was not given a vigorous ride in posting a new career best. He failed to build on that degree of promise in a similar contest at Ripon next time and while traffic issues were something of a feature, he had no such excuses when making no show whatsoever at Windsor next time. Given a two month break, a change of scenery, and a step up to a mile-and-a-half, Mr Freedom ran a considerably better race when returning to Windsor at the start of the month. Settling better on the prominent side of midfield, he was unable to accelerate with the principle as the race developed, but still ran on for a three-and-a-quarter length fourth of ten. His breeding offers mixed messages as the immediate damline is bereft of jumps experience until the winning novice handicapper Zero appears at 4/1, although the fourth dam also has another winner in Kristiansand and her next level of descendants includes the useful sorts London Prize and Categorical. The sire, Sixties Icon, has a fair winner-runner rate of 20.41%, his strike-rate before October is a healthy 32.14% and he has had four wins from twenty at Fontwell. Moreover, Sheena West has had three winning juveniles at Fontwell, including the 46 rated Feb Thirtyfirst, the 53 rated Hi Note, and the 52 rated Whipperway who scored on his hurdling debut. These factors did not translate into a successful hurdling debut at this venue seventeen days ago, for which he was mercurial in the markets before starting at 6/1. Taking a keen hold while racing at the rear of the field, his jumping, while largely safe, left plenty to be desired as there was not a single hurdle where he was not big, skewed, slow, awkward or any combination of same. It is then to his credit that he was able to make headway into a close enough third, and still look a feasible threat turning for home. This threat was short lived, however, as a lack of pace and fluency saw the leading pair get away just before the last, leaving Mr Freedom to finish a sixteen length third behind Graffiti. There was undoubted promise hiding in this performance and the yard’s juvenile strike-rate does jump up from 8.33% to 22.73% between first and second outings. If he has indeed learned from his debut then Mr Freedom would hold a good chance of finishing much closer to Graffiti, although whether he actually has is another matter.Miss Fedora bf Seamus Mullins Unraced
Helmet (Shamardal){12-b}(1.32) 3/1 Jurako 56.0 1st 3500m 4yo Claiming Hurdle, Compiegne 2005
The sole racecourse debutant in the line-up, Miss Fedora represents a Seamus Mullins with a fairly modest 11.67% winner-to-runner rate in the sphere, a first-time strike rate of 3.51%, and a zero from twenty-eight record with juveniles at Fontwell. Sire Helmet has a similarly modest winner-to-runner rate of 12.50%, but while two of the third dam’s hurdlers achieved little, a third, Jurako, won a French claimer at four. Channel Baie (3/2) is another winning descendent while the fifth dam produced the mighty Ouija Board as well as four winning jumpers headed by Spectrometer and Star Selection. Since 2004/05, only 25 from 1,038 previously unraced juveniles made winning debuts, and though far from irredeemable, the profile of Miss Fedora warrants little particular interest in this line-up.Strong prospects
1. Cabrakan
Reasonable prospects
2. Executive Pool
Feasible prospects
3. Graffiti
4. Mutara
5. Mr Freedom
Moderate prospects
.
Negligible prospects
6. Miss FedoraOnce again, you were right and I was wrong… Well done btw :)
Also, the ratings were right once again… Form in the book is superior to potential improvement, although records show that most horses do improve from run one to run two… Flintstone still jumped like a chaser and that wasn’t ironed out between races… Can’t make any sense of Anger Management’s run… The “strong prospects” have been rather poor so far this season but they’ve been doing alright over the long term… Would have been doing even better were it not for Hill Station… The division has been weaker than usual so maybe an improved batch being introduced over the coming weeks and months will see an uptick…
Since the perfectionist in me is in danger of overthinking this one, I will just be content with the fact that I am not a tipster and look forward to Fontwell on Sunday instead!
It will come to the surprise of absolutely nobody that Ness Ta Rah is upholding a long family tradition of highly talented racemares.
Her ninth dam, Verdict, had none other than Pharos behind her when winning the 1923 Cambridgeshire, before going on to land the Coronation Cup the following season. At stud, she produced Quashed (winner of the 1935 Oaks and 1936 Gold Cup), Thankerton (second in the 1936 Derby and 2,000 Guineas) and Versicle (winner of the 1933 Ribblesdale).
Closer to Ness Ta Rah are numerous top fillies including Her Ladyship (3/2), Attraction (4/3), Sonic Lady (5/3), Major Emblem (3/5), Lady Lupus (5/4), Deirdre (5/5), Songline (5/6) and Jet Setting (5/8)
If she is not annually producing seven figure yearlings in her inevitable career as a sought out broodmare, there is something very wrong with the bloodstock industry. Indeed, I reckon Juddmonte will be paying for the right to allow Ness Ta Rah be covered by Frankel.
I’m curious, which one is Shawn Michaels / Razor Ramon / Big Daddy Cool Diesel / 1-2-3 Kid / Hunter Hearst Helmsley?
A couple of days after the south lakes hosted their sole juvenile hurdle of the season at Cartmel, Lake Worcester is set to host its own solitary juvenile hurdle. Though the race is generally contested by ordinary sorts, Cliffs Of Dover and Chief Justice, winners in 2016 and 2018 respectively, went on to make an impact in graded company while 2019 winner, Maria Magdalena, would place second in that season’s Wensleydale. This year’s renewal brings together a pair who have already won in the division this term, along with a winner from the flat who has not quite taken to hurdling thus far. A flat, left handed circuit with a long home straight, winning DIs at Worcester are quite inconsistent due to a relatively low sample size. Nevertheless, given the pace that often prevails at the venue, there would appear to be an inclination towards stamina. Furthermore, with the clear round rate of 94.90% being the fifth lowest in Britain, Worcester can catch out inexperienced sorts. The going is currently described as good and with warm and dry weather forecast between now and racing, the ground will be watered as is necessary.
Flintstone chg Nigel Twiston-Davies f9-0-5 (63) 71 j1-1-0 (-) 82 92
Starspangledbanner (First Samurai){19-e}(1.00) No jumps relatives
A nine race maiden on the flat, Flintstone made it one from one for Nigel Twiston-Davies’ juvenile campaign when winning at Stratford nine days ago. The master of Grange Hill Farm does have a solid record in the division. He has handled the likes of Bristol de Mai, Torpillo and Mahogany Blaze, and his winner-to-runner rate of 33.33% is the strongest in the field. Twiston-Davies also fares well with his flat recruits, six of his twenty-seven won as juveniles, although prior to nine days ago, only one managed to score first time. Ten seasons ago, the yard had a similar type in Golden Jubilee; Hannon trained mid-sixties performer with an American damline completely bereft of jumpers, carrying the same colours. Golden Jubilee got no further than the first in a Bangor juvenile before finishing well beaten at Warwick – although after a prolonged return to the flat, he did eventually manage to win a Sedgefield handicap off 92. The similarities diverge when it comes to their sires as while Golden Jubilee was Zavata’s one and only juvenile, Starspangledbanner had eight prior to Stratford with two finding the winners’ enclosure. Though Flintstone has not managed to win as of yet, he has generally been a fair and consistent sort. His two-year-old career, starting in May, consisted of three runs in as many months; all of which came at Newbury, none of which saw him get closer than twelve lengths to the winner. Following a break of nearly nine months, he returned in a mile handicap at Kempton where he finished a two length second off 64, looking one paced in the closing stages. Over the same trip at Chelmsford, he had to be rousted along for much of the contest before keeping on for a seven length third. The step up to ten furlongs only saw him finish sixth at Goodwood, but the form has worked out quite well for the level. Afterwards, he was given a gelding operation and a two month break and while he could only manage an eight length third at Leicester, the application of blinkers saw him turn in a career best performance at Kempton in early July. Racing over a mile off a mark of 62, he turned for home with all of the field to pass, but was vying for the lead inside the final hundred yards before going down by half a length. The form was boosted by the winner following up in two of his next three starts, but Flintstone did give the impression that he was not entirely committed to the battle. Eight days later, he returned to ten furlongs, racing off the same mark, for a Chepstow handicap in which he was the second favourite of four. Disputing the lead, he appeared to be travelling best in front at the distance but was unable to fend off a couple of rivals and would merely plug on for two and a quarter length third. The runner-up went one better next time, and there was less of a quibble about Flintstone’s resolve. His hurdling bow came in a class three contest, although the defection of Mucuna make it a weak race for the grade and Flintstone would start the 13/8 second favourite behind the penalised Mutara. Racing with enthusiasm, his early jumping was big and cautious and while it became neater after going out onto the second circuit, he maintained a tendency to rather hop his flights. He disputed second for much of the contest and was shaken along passing the hill before looking decidedly outpaced on the home turn; trading as high as 26/1 in-running. Nevertheless, any lingering concerns over his resolve were dispelled as he chased the leader down the straight and, though trailing his hind legs through the last, would dourly wear down the favourite before asserting in the final fifty yards. The winning time was the slowest against standard on the card and there is little to suggest that the runner-up had improved since his course and distance win last time out. Strictly on form, Flintstone has some five pounds to find on Rolypolymoly. Nevertheless, the way his jumping improved throughout the contest suggests that he can leave his debut showing behind and his overall profile suggests that he is the more likely of the pair to make a hurdler. Moreover, there was plenty to like about the way he battled at Stratford which may well be the deciding factor between a pair with identical flat ratings.Rolypolymoly bg Adam West f7-0-1 (63) 69 j2-1-1 (107) 91 97
Heeraat (Monsun){1-k}(0.60) 2/1 Zoffalee 135 1st 2m1f 4yo Handicap Hurdle (112), Ballinrobe 2019
Currently rated 63 on the flat, Rolypolymoly looked a fairly treated animal in that sphere and his two runs in hurdle contests to date show that he is just as good over jumps. After finishing sixth of nine on his debut at Salisbury last September, he rounded off his two year old campaign with midfield finishes at Goodwood and Kempton which earned him a BHA figure of 67. He ran to a similar level when midfield on his return at Pontefract over a mile in April, but shaped better when stepped up ten furlongs at Nottingham and Leicester, despite taking a keen grip at the latter when finishing just over three lengths behind in third. His latest flat appearance came at Salisbury, carrying top weight in a class four handicap over a mile and a half. He was supported into 7/2 second favouritism having been available at 5/1 but while he settled well enough in midfield, found himself with little room once the race picked up off a modest tempo. Whatever chance he held at the furlong marker was extinguished as he was blocked off once again and he was resigned to beating just one home. Though it can not be said that he was definitely an unlucky loser, he should have finished closer than he did in a race where the front two have both scored since. Rolypolymoly‘s damline offered flashes of optimism for his new vocation as he is out of a Monsun (36.11% winner to runner as a damsire) half-sister to capable hurdler Zoffalee. However, sire Heeraat’s five previous juveniles had finished no better than sixth in the sphere. As such, Rolypolymoly has become his sire’s best juvenile in a jumps career that began at Stratford on the tenth of July. Though up against three previous winners, he was backed down from a morning 10/1 to start the race as the 10/3 second favourite. Held up towards the rear, he did not jump with conspicuous fluency as he was awkward when hopping over the second and third, and tight at the fourth and seventh. He made headway towards the end of the back to get within striking distance, but his effort was blighted by his jumping the path on the approach to the last; from which he was slow to get away. The winner was long gone, but Rolypolymoly did rally to gain a couple of places on the run-in to finish a sixth-length second; three lengths clear of the remainder. He reappeared a fortnight later at Uttoxeter where he was supported from 3/1 in the morning to go off the 5/4 favourite. Though he hopped over the first, he jumped much more fluently on this occasion and was slotted in third position in the tightly bunched five strong field. He was within a length of the lead at three out and while he missed the hurdle, rather clambering over it, the mistake cost him little relative momentum and he was a length clear jumping the penultimate flight. From there, he was driven out and after a tidy enough jump at the last, was able to forge seven lengths clear by the line. The winning time was nothing out of the ordinary, but the form was given a boost when the runner-up landed a Killarney maiden next time out; although that horse subsequently flopped at Down Royal and the third was well beaten in a Fontwell maiden next time. Rolypolymoly was due to run at Market Rasen the following week, but was withdrawn on account of a cut leg. Now making his return after five weeks off the track, he has the ability to make a good account of himself here, although he has less scope for improvement than Flintstone and while the conditional’s claim could be handy, Rolypolymoly would not be a steering job.Anger Management bg John Ryan f6-0-0 (44) 43 j1-0-1 (-) 77 80
Ribchester (Nayef){22-a}(1.22) 3/2 Allow Me 129 1st 2m3½f Handicap Hurdle (120), Catterick 2012
Four-time Group One winner and dual Champion Miler Ribchester is having his first jumpers this season. No taller than average, Ribchester is of the speedy Iffraaj-Zafonic sireline and his third dam was the Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Mehthaaf. Nevertheless, one uncle, Tactic won over a mile and six while another, Bangkok, is being marketed as a dual-purpose sire. While half-brother Golconda Prince was unable to build on his fifth in a Huntington juvenile, another uncle, Taaresh, landed four low-grade hurdles over the minimum trip at Worcester and Wincanton. The first into the fold for Ribchester’s jumps stallion career was the six race maiden Anger Management, whose official flat rating of 44 exceeds his accomplishments. Beaten a combined seventy-seven lengths in two starts at Newmarket last Autumn, his four runs in 2022, between eight and fourteen furlongs, saw him finish no closer than twelve lengths to the winner. While the fair handicap hurdler, Allow Me, appears at 3/2 on the damline, six others within that proximity have achieved the sum total of nothing over hurdles from a combined twenty-four starts (although Nicholas Bill (Ghofar, Bollin William, Just Jasmine) is out of the fifth dam). Trainer John Ryan does have a decent enough record in the sphere with five winners from twenty-one juveniles, although only one of those would score first-time-out. At the end of last month at Market Rasen, Anger Management did not improve on that tally and was flattered by his second placing. Sent off the unfancied 16/1 outsider of three, Anger Management kept out of trouble at the back of the field as he hopped and skewed over the majority of hurdles. Off the bridle after jumping the last in the back, he managed to pass the patently underperforming second favourite three furlongs from home, but never posed even the remotest of threats to the very easy winner. By sheer virtue of his poor flat form, Anger Management may already be a better hurdler, but he still has a great deal to find if he is to make an impact here.Rogue Mission grg Milton Harris f5-1-1 (67) 70 j2-0-0 (-) 64 70
El Kabeir (Spinning World){2-d}(4.33) 2/1 Primus Inter Pares 107 1st 2m3f Handicap Chase (101), Catterick 2008
At the 2021 Tattersalls July Sale, Milton Harris walked away with four juvenile hurdlers for sums between fourteen and twenty thousand guineas. Three of these, Aliomaana, Genuflex and Knight Salute, would all find the winners’ enclosure with the latter named – incidentally the least expensive of the bunch – capping off a fantastic campaign with success in the Grade One Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree. Returning to the well at this year’s sale, Mr Harris brought along a much thicker wallet, and left with five potential juveniles; three costing over fifty-five thousand guineas. The cheapest of the quintet this time around was Rogue Mission, who commanded a comparatively modest sum of fifteen thousand guineas. Gelded before his racecourse debut in early January, Rogue Mission’s five flat outings have all come at Lingfield, the first four under the care of Tom Clover. A steady 25/1 ahead of a ten furlong novice stakes, Rogue Mission dove out of stalls, took keen hold in rear and went nowhere under pressure; finishing a ten length seventh of eight. He reappeared three weeks later in an identical contest where he attracted outside support in the ring, shortening four points to 12/1 at the off. He started better on this occasion, although he did have another horse to bounce off when leaving the stalls. Still keen and held up towards the rear, he moved into a prominent position turning for home and although he took a while to gather himself under pressure, Rogue Mission was able to narrowly get the best of an honest battle inside the final half-furlong with the pair finishing a couple of lengths clear. The runner-up sadly lost his life next time out, although the third and fourth have each given the form a bit of substance in subsequent outings. Four weeks later, Rogue Mission was outclassed in a match race against a horse who had finished a length second to a subsequent listed winner before he made his handicap debut over ten furlongs back in May. Returning after a ten-week break off a mark of 71, Rogue Mission was friendless in the market and ran accordingly. Ridden from the stalls, he made a short lived effort while going wide on the home turn, but ultimately finished a near nine length seventh of eight. Tom Clover has previously supplied only one juvenile hurdler in the form of Appreciate; who incidentally also joined Milton Harris. Based on his four runs in the division, Appreciate looked harshly treated by his mark of 90, although he has gone on to land a four-timer this Summer. Rogue Mission’s damline largely consists of milers and three (at 3/2) who went over jumps fared poorly. Nevertheless, half-brother Rare Groove won over two miles on the flat and uncle Primus Inter Pares was a winning handicap chaser over the intermediate trip. These strands of stamina influence will have to offset the lack of same from first-crop stallion El Kabeir. From the Scat Daddy/Johannesburg line (which has enjoyed little success in the sphere), El Kabir was a graded – rather than top class – miler in America, and while his height of 16.1hh is adequate, his DI of 5.86 is a concern. Moreover, while Rogue Mission has form over ten furlongs, none of his races have been strongly run affairs. Uncharacteristically these days for a Milton Harris juvenile, Rogue Mission was unfancied ahead of his hurdles debut at Stratford, as he went from an opening show of 11/4 in the morning to 13/2 at the off. In the event, he settled well enough but tight jumps at the first couple of flights saw him expend energy getting away and slow, untidy jumps at the fifth and sixth had him struggling along the back. His pecking on landing at the penultimate flight saw that he was tailed off before the home turn from which he completed in his own time. Rogue Mission returned to Lingfield for a racing league contest where he started at 125/1 and never got involved; finishing thirteen lengths behind his much better fancied stablemate Postmark. The best of his flat form sets the standard here, but his latest efforts leave plenty to be desired. While entitled to improve in the long run, it is worth noting that each of the yard’s juveniles to have won on their second outings placed either first or second on their debuts. As it so happened, Rogue Mission made it no further than the first flight when running at Fontwell a fortnight ago where, having approached the hurdle with plenty on his mind, he somehow went over it horizontally; giving Harry Reed no chance of maintaining the partnership.Cailin Saoirse bf Alexandra Dunn f7-0-1 (48) 60 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Bated Breath (Bahamian Bounty){14-a}(3.00) 3/2 Future Gold 75 5th 2m 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Cork 2020
Three efforts in Irish two-year-old maidens for Philip Byrne, where she finished no better than eighth or any closer than six lengths to the winner, earned Cailin Saoirse a stiff looking mark of 59. Returning in April at Navan, she was beaten by over ten lengths and the drop to 55 did see her finish in the first half of the field, although still beaten over twelve lengths. A further drop to 50 enabled her to finish a length-and-a-half fourth at Fairyhouse after which she joined Alexandra Dunn. Her UK debut came in a Ffos Lass 0-50 Classified Stakes last month over the longest trip she had encountered to date; an extended seven furlongs. There was enough support to send her off the 3/1 favourite of fourteen but she was unable to justify the gamble as while she travelled well and was in a decent position, she was too slow to challenge, ultimately finishing a three length third. Cailin Saoirse shaped as though a little further would suit and her dam did win over twelve furlongs, but stamina for hurdling is still far from assured. Moreover, there is no evidence of jumping ability on the damline and her new trainer has had just one winning juvenile from twenty-two. There was a period of support for her in the markets ahead of her hurdles bow at Fontwell, opening in the ring at 7/1 having earlier been 16/1, although she eventually drifted out again to 18/1 at the off. In the event, she also dispatched of her rider at the first flight with another flamboyant leap.Milly Molly Mandy grf Bill Turner f4-0-0 (42) 41
Hellvelyn (King Charlemagne){21-a}(2.00) 2/1 Norfolk Sky 119 4th TBA Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (L), Cheltenham 2014
Somerset trainer Bill Turner generally has more runners on the flat than over jumps, but his record with juvenile hurdlers is quite respectable. Though only 29.17% improve for the switch in codes, his winner to runner rate of 18.97% is a fair one and it increases to 27.03% with those he trained himself on the flat. Indeed, five of these would win at the first time of asking, including the 35 rated A Double Ewe Bee who landed a Ludlow juvenile seller at odds of 66/1 in December 2004. Rated half a stone superior is Milly Molly Mandy, who will be the yard’s first juvenile this season. Milly Molly Mandy first saw the racecourse at Southwell last August where she was beat one of her eight rivals home, finishing some thirty lengths behind the winner. Later that month, she beat two home at Chelmsford; getting to within eleven lengths of the winner with her ninth place finish. That was the last seen of her until this July where she returned to Southwell to finish just over fifteen lengths last of seven in a mile maiden. Her last appearance came in a Brighton classified stakes four weeks ago where she again finished last, some twenty-five lengths behind the winner. Milly Molly Mandy now makes the switch to hurdles and while two of her dam’s siblings failed to win over jumps, Norfolk Sky did win twice as a novice and came within seven lengths of picking up some black type at Cheltenham. The third dam produced two more winners in Toskano and Knocktopher, while the 2005 Free Handicap Hurdle winner, Admiral, appears at 4/3 on the damline. However, for all the sparkles of promise found on the distaff side, none of Hellvelyn’s five previous juvenile hurdlers managed to breach the first five in nine starts between them. Strictly on flat form, Milly Molly Mandy can be given no realistic chance and the sire offers no assistance in this regard either. Nevertheless, her trainer and damline offer traces of intrigue for her as a recruit to the division without making her of any serious interest in this company first time around.Strong prospects
1. Flintstone
Reasonable prospects
2. Rolypolymoly
Feasible prospects
3. Rogue Mission
Moderate/Negligible prospects
4. Milly Molly Mandy
5. Anger Management
6. Cailin SaoirseThank you, Ian.
At first glance, I do not think that the Worcester contest is a “double bet race”. I do have Rolypolymoly ahead by five pounds on ratings and the conditional’s allowance will probably help as well. But I think that Flintstone could improve quite significantly from his Stratford win if he jumps with a little more confidence… Are they still using the brush hurdles at Worcester? Will have to meditate on this one before I do my preview tomorrow.
Interestingly, while Worcester is the sixth most visited track of Twiston-Davies, he has not had a single juvenile there since my records begin in 2004. Probably a total nothing burger, but interesting all the same.
Struggling to split the top pair, giving us a rare instance of two strong prospects!
If one were to look up the word “idiosyncratic” in the dictionary, you will find a dry description of the word “idiosyncratic”. Nevertheless, if horse racing were to ever release an illustrated dictionary of the turf, a picture of Cartmel racecourse will likely accompany the definition. Set in the glorious South Lakes and nestled between the woods and the priory, it is essentially a funfair surrounded by a racecourse. While even the child version of this author would lament that those raucous children seemed more interested in the irrelevant festivities than the racing itself – a sentiment which has gotten worse with age and has expanded to encompass a large section of the racegoing public – it is not for nothing that this charming venue is a favourite of all who have made a visit. Good juveniles have graced the Cumbrian carnival with 2011 winner Countrywide Flame being the most notable, 2014 winner Vosne Romanee becoming a useful sort, while Silver Streak rather surprisingly finished fourth here in 2016 on his hurdling debut. However, given its rather novel nature, participants in Cartmel’s juvenile hurdles are typically a modest breed with the average winner’s seasonal RPR of 107.16 being the lowest in the country. Apart from the home stretch being located on the track’s inner, there is not a great deal idiosyncratic about the hurdles course itself. A tight, flat, left handed circuit, the winning juvenile DIs of 1.32 median, 1.84 mean are predictably higher than average – although against those of the average runner, they are still quite low comparatively which ties into the notion that speedy flat breds will not get an easy ride. A point further illustrated by the fact that while the clear round rate of 96.32% is close to bang average, the completion rate of 81.60% is the tenth lowest in the division. All six odds-on favourites in Cartmel’s juveniles since 2004/05 have justified their favouritism and with the median winner’s SP being the second lowest in the country at 2.63, it is not a course prone to surprise results. This year’s renewal consists entirely of hurdling debutants with three bringing official flat ratings exceeding the average for juvenile hurdles, and two having scored on the level. The going is currently described as good with a moderate chance of overnight rain interrupting the warm and cloudy weather forecast between now and post time. Nevertheless, as three of the field made the running last time out with a few showing a tendency to race keenly, the pace should still be an honest one.
Barneys Gift bg Philip Kirby f9-1-3 (74) 79
Johnny Barnes (Mark Of Esteem){14-c}(0.33) 2/3 Furimix 57.0 1st 3yo Claiming Hurdle, Cagnes-sur-Mer 2020
The highest rated and most experienced of these on the flat, Barneys Gift comes into the race with one win from nine, and a BHA mark of 74. He began his career in France with Jo Hughes where he reached the frame twice in four outings over seven furlongs last July; finishing third behind a couple of useful sorts at Compiegne, and a two length second in a Vichy maiden. After finishing midfield back at Vichy over a mile, he made the move to Philip Kirby’s yard where, following a creditable staying on third in a six furlong novice stakes at Pontefract, would get off the mark over an extra furlong at Redcar in early November. Coated in sweat and racing enthusiastically, he made all to justify his being backed from a morning 4/1 to 6/4 favouritism; pressing for home at the distance and holding on by three-quarters of a length at the line. The form was fairly standard for its type, although four subsequent winners have come out of the race and the mark of 78 awarded to Barneys Gift was reasonable. Given a winter break and a gelding operation, he fared poorly on his first two attempts in handicap company, finishing a tailed off last at Ripon on heavy ground, and six lengths behind the remainder at Haydock on good-to-firm. There was more promise when last seen in early June; finishing fifth of nine back at Haydock over seven furlongs on soft ground. However, he may have been flattered by setting the steady tempo and his effort petered out tamely inside the final furlong. Barneys Gift does have a trainer with a solid record in the division. Since his first forays in 2008, Philip Kirby has a good winner-to-runner rate of 27.03% headed by Skycutter; another ex-Jo Hughes animal for the same connections who won his first two starts last term. Skycutter was a good stone superior on the flat, however, and the Kirby yard has been struggling for winners recently. The pedigree offers even less encouragement as first crop sire Johnny Barnes has modest credentials for the sphere. Standing at less than 16 hands, the son of Acclamation peaked at Group Three standard and never raced beyond a mile. His preference for soft ground has been passed on to his early progeny, although that might not be so helpful in this instance. Mark Of Esteem is a fairly useful damsire, although while five descendants of the third dam have tried jumping, only one, Furimix (2/3), would show any form and that came in a claiming hurdle. On his two-year-old ability, Barneys Gift would probably be more interesting, but his credentials are crabbed not only by his and his trainer’s poor recent form, but also his questionable stamina and the lack of obvious redemption in the pedigree.Golden Ticket bg John C McConnell f7-0-0 (57) 63
Galileo Gold (Acclamation){23-b}(1.22) 2/1 Barliffey 91 2nd 2m2f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (83), Kelso 2011
John McConnell has sent a nine strong team to Cartmel for this meeting, and his winner on Saturday brought his strike rate at the course to 30%. The Meath trainer also has a solid record with juveniles he takes to Britain; amassing four wins from twenty-one starts. Golden Ticket is set to be his first juvenile to run at the Cumbrian venue, who will be making his stable bow having been claimed out of Andrew Oliver’s for €5,000 back in July. Juveniles leaving Andrew Oliver have a fair 18.92% winner-to-runner rate, headed by Mega Fortune and Dodging Bullets, although only Gibson Park would win after fetching less than five figures. Moreover, while McConnell’s first claimed juvenile, Bringbackmemorie, finished a good second at Down Royal last week, he was quadruple the asking price of Golden Ticket. Beating just two home at Punchestown on his racecourse debut last September, Golden Ticket finished midfield at Dundalk prior to a winter break, before returning to finish last at Navan in March. Gelded and switched to handicaps with a hood fitted, his initial mark of 68 looked harsh as he finished no closer than six lengths to the winner at Gowran Park and Leopardstown twice. Better was expected from his dropping into claiming company for a ten furlong contest at Fairyhouse, where he was backed from 10/1 to 6/1 in the morning before starting the 9/2 third favourite of nine. Tracking the leader from the outset, he was called upon for his effort on entering the straight but while he challenged briefly at the distance, he was swamped inside the final furlong; finishing a two-and-a -quarter length fourth. Though it was one of his better performances, the fact that he finished just behind a 47 rated gelding puts the form into perspective. Golden Ticket would be the lowest rated runner in the line-up, and his pedigree is only fair at best. He is set to be the first hurdler for Galileo Gold, a son of Paco Boy whose nine juveniles failed to win between them. The 2,000 Guineas winner does stand at a reasonable 16.1hh and is a half-brother to winning hurdlers Palladium and Petit Palais. His uncle, Barliffey finished second in a weak Kelso handicap and that is the extent of jumps ability on the damline. While any Irish raider would warrant close inspection in a contest such as this, Golden Ticket’s profile is otherwise moderate and it may be telling that connections have opted to come here rather than take in a more competitive event closer to home.Octopus grg Jennie Candlish f7-0-1 (60) 66
Kendargent (Refuse To Bend){8-a}(0.54) 0.5 Mackenberg 144 1st 2m3f Novices’ Chase, Catterick 2022
Starting his career with Joseph Tuite, Octopus was outclassed at York and Newbury on his first two outings last October. A switch to the all weather, under the care of Kevin Philippart de Foy, saw him backed from 22/1 to 15/2 on course and he duly posted a career best at Chelmsford when a four-length third of fifteen in a seven furlong restricted novice stakes. The race produced six individual winners at three, however, four handicap outings this term showed that Octopus had not trained on quite so well as modest efforts at Windsor, Chelmsford, Brighton and Leicester saw his mark drop from 68 to 60; all without finishing closer than sixth or nearer than seven lengths to the winner. His latest outing at Leicester back in May was as good a performance as any this season. Sporting first-time cheekpieces, Octopus broke well and led up to the two-furlong marker before falling through the field to finish seventh by as many lengths. Withdrawn from the Tattersalls Ascot May Sale, he has joined Jennie Candlish for a new career over jumps. Best known in the division for causing a 200/1 upset with Maoi Chinn Tire in the 2010 Wensleydale, Candlish’s overall winner-to-runner rate in the sphere stands at 13.33% with an improvement rate of just 27.78%. Sire Kendargent has a decent enough record with his juveniles, counting three winners from twelve to date. King d’Argent and Silver Shade managed to score first time out while Kenyan won a handicap during his initial campaign despite being rated just 45 on the flat. From the family of Brametot (2/1) and Monsun (3/1), Octopus is also a half-brother to Mackenberg who landed a hat trick of northern novice chases last term. Outside of his Chelmsford third, Octopus will need to improve on his flat form and a couple have more substantial profiles overall. Notwithstanding, his pedigree is not without merit and if the recent gelding has a positive effect, he probably won’t disgrace himself here.The Churchill Lad bg Rebecca Menzies f6-1-0 (67) 72
Churchill (Discreetly Mine){20-a}(0.71) 5/2 Wishlon 158 3rd Christmas Hurdle, Kempton 1988
Representing the first crop of Churchill and coming from the family of Jack Sullivan (2/1) and Seventh Heaven (2/3), The Churchill Lad commanded 105,000 guineas as a foal and 130,000 guineas as a yearling before joining the Joseph O’Brien. Starting his career last December, his first three outings came in successive months wherein he finished sixth in Dundalk maidens on each occasion. He was largely undone by inexperience first time out and his second outing can be forgiven due to a very slow start. Stepping up to ten furlongs for his final Irish engagement, The Churchill Lad raced in close order, but was done by a lack of pace in the closing stages; finishing just over four lengths behind the winner. The Churchill Lad was entered for the Tattersalls Online Sale in March, but was withdrawn beforehand in order to join Rebecca Menzies. There can be a degree of caution when it comes to those let go by Joseph O’Brien as of the eighteen to have left Owning Hill, just two would win as juveniles. That being said, Menzies may be an exception to this trend as the promising Hasty Brook has at least maintained his form, and The Churchill Lad has shown no signs of regression since moving to Howe Hills. He was initially set to take in the season’s curtain raiser at Hexham in June, but was instead redirected to Haydock for a ten furlong handicap off 67. Having his first start on turf, he once again fell asleep in the stalls and racing off a sound pace, was still bringing up the rear turning into the straight. Met with traffic issues three furlongs out, he had to be brought wide to make his effort and though green under pressure, ran on to snatch fourth in the final strides. He started at 33/1 for his next outing at Newcastle later in June, but was still fairly disappointing in a first time hood where, having raced keenly for much of the contest, was unable to quicken in a race which benefited those at the head of affairs. Nevertheless, after missing engagements at Carlisle and Wolverhampton, The Churchill Lad was able to break his duck at the sixth time of asking when returning to Newcastle for a two mile handicap ten days ago. Held up behind the field while taking a keen hold, he was shaken up approaching the distance whereafter he picked off his rivals one-by-one. Under a strong drive, he caught the clear leader at the furlong pole and though the idling rival was spurred on by the new challenge, The Churchill Lad pulled out extra towards the finish to prevail by a decisive neck; the pair finishing nine lengths clear of the strung out remainder. Much of what can be discerned from The Churchill Lad’s pedigree insofar as his hurdling prospects are concerned will be based on conjecture. Churchill has yet to have a runner over jumps and there are no national hunt horses nearby on the predominantly American damline. Notwithstanding, Churchill’s prospects are not without merit for this vocation. Winner of the National and Dewhurst stakes at two before landing the English and Irish Guineas double, Churchill did finish second in the International but was not wholly proven beyond a mile. While he is out of Galileo, the damline is not entirely conducive to stamina, with full-sister Clemmie restricted to eight furlongs, and granddam Airwave being a very fast mare. Nevertheless, Churchill’s full-brother Blenheim Palace stayed at least eleven furlongs, and his height of 16.2hh, and overall class, will be positives in this endeavour. The distaff side provides only one piece of distance evidence regarding jumps potential, although this does come in the form of Wishlon who finished third in the 1988 Christmas Hurdle as a novice. Though not yet granted the most powerful ammunition, the up and coming Rebecca Menzies has done well to date with her picking up black type with the £2,000 Fabianski, getting a win out of the 51 rated Tabou Beach Boy, having only one fall/unseat from thirty-four runs, and boasting an improvement rate of 55.55% (the highest in this field). The Churchill Lad looks as strong a juvenile prospect as any handled by his trainer and with proven stamina and recent form, he comes into this race with intriguing prospects.Eclairant Le Monde bf Donald McCain f4-0-1 (67) 71
Champs Elysees (Halling){4-m}(1.67) 2/1 Elgin 155 1st Kingwell Hurdle (G2), Wincanton 2018
Donald McCain possesses the strongest juvenile hurdling record of the trainers represented in this field with a winner runner rate of 29.82% headed by the likes of Navajo Pass, Hollow Tree and Starchitect. He also has three wins from eight in this particular contest with Gentifan winning in 2006, Ormesher in 2018 and Sacre Pierre last season. Though Never No Trouble has yet to get him off the mark for this season, he will be hoping for better with his intriguingly bred Eclairant Le Monde. Like Navajo Pass and two other winners from ten, she lived in Cholmondeley during her flat career which ended with a mark of 67. A six length fourth of nine on her sole two-year-old outing at Newcastle, she was still green when finishing sixth of twelve on her return in a Ripon maiden towards the end of May. Stepped up to an extended eleven furlongs for a Haydock novice stakes, she took up the running three furlongs out but was unsurprisingly outclassed by the front pair; one winning a handicap off 86 next time, and the other placing second in a listed race. Nevertheless, though she was beaten ten lengths, she did keep on well for third. She was unable to build on this promise when last seen in early July finishing fifth in a Carlisle maiden; weakening late on to finish over six lengths behind the winner, but within a length of subsequent improver Maggie’s Delight. On bare form, Eclairant Le Monde’s mark of 67 is probably as good as she has shown, but it still holds up well on these terms and her pedigree suggests that she should make a juvenile hurdler. Champs Elysees has a solid winner-to-runner rate of 25.42% with half of his progeny matching or surpassing their flat ability over hurdles. Her dam Clemency won twice as a novice hurdler and is a half-sister to the high-class Elgin. Mystique Heights is another winner at 3/2, while Dodging Bullets can be found further back on the damline at 5/2. Moreover, the yard is currently enjoying a grand spell of form, with all but one of their eleven most recent runners placing first or second, including a double on Saturday’s card. Eclairant Le Monde’s profile ticks practically every box and the yard also has a good record when it comes to wind operations performed on their inmates. Whether she is willing to put herself into a driving finish remains to be seen, but she would still be entitled to every respect here.Strong prospects
1. The Churchill Lad
2. Eclairant Le Monde
Feasible/ Moderate prospects
3. Octopus
4. Barneys Gift
5. Golden TicketWell done again Ian!
I am wondering if the six pounds made much of a difference considering how Flintstone towered over Mutara. Turf was flying up and Flintstone will have liked a bit of give although whether it got into the ground… winning time might reveal more.
Mutara was also bathed in sweat but winner the better horse on the day and will probably be the better horse long term for all that it wasn’t a very good race.
