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“I cannot see beyond Rolypolymoly at Worcester on Wednesday”
A pleasing outcome, not least because one was able to obtain a spot of 6/5 last night about the 8/15 winner.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Once again, you were right and I was wrong… Well done btw :)
Also, the ratings were right once again… Form in the book is superior to potential improvement, although records show that most horses do improve from run one to run two… Flintstone still jumped like a chaser and that wasn’t ironed out between races… Can’t make any sense of Anger Management’s run… The “strong prospects” have been rather poor so far this season but they’ve been doing alright over the long term… Would have been doing even better were it not for Hill Station… The division has been weaker than usual so maybe an improved batch being introduced over the coming weeks and months will see an uptick…
Since the perfectionist in me is in danger of overthinking this one, I will just be content with the fact that I am not a tipster and look forward to Fontwell on Sunday instead!
Whatever you are, BH, you’re the best there is at it and I’m already looking forward to your Fontwell Park preview.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"One taoist monk to another…
“Make sure not to miss the big Fu contest at Fonty well Park – it’s between the upstart Davies the doubler Carradine and the master Bruce the Hall Lee.”
Another taoist monk ..
“I’ll try to make sure to see that, but who are you by the way, I haven’t seen you in these parts before ?”
One taoist monk –
” I am the long suffering travelling monk they call the very umble one, bent almost double to do service to others , but like the butterfly that cannot fly – I am now without wing and can but sing..
” I’ve been beaten to hell and horribly blackballed and so shall not be going to Fonty well.”gamble in concert: https://youtu.be/u0iuaxvkXv4
Meanwhile, no upstart I, instead I am a discipline at the Church of BH.
I’m a mere punter, BH is above that, above even being a tipster, in fact.
BH is, I would say, an occasional, yet prolific, writer, with each successive work laying claim to being his Magnum Opus.
BH is to juvenile hurdle writing what Tolstoy was to War And Peace and Tolkien was to the chronicles of Middle Earth.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Davies somehow shows the clarity of observation that Tolstoy exhibited in his great work Anna Karenina – his first true novel, and I would suggest one that dissected and exposed the human condition with a skill that surprises.
I am on mute.
Fontwell Park on Sunday, a venue where I have views.
Many pigeon hole this track as a tight figure of eight which suits short runners.
It’s anything but.
And the hurdles track isn’t even a figure of eight.
And it’s an extended two miles – 2m1f162yds, in fact.
If you don’t stay, you don’t win.
Graffiti hosed up over course and distance, but he has a penalty and might find it difficult to concede weight to Cabrakan, who won off 74 on the Flat and is from a yard with plenty of previous in these sorts of races.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Likewise, there is no sense of rivalry or competitiveness on my end. I suppose if it would make the thread more interesting, we could do a thing where on the off-chance that this thread gets nominated for “thread of the year”, whoever has the most winners has the thread in their name… Would be quite cool to finish second to the Ness Ta Rah thread…
There isn’t a divergence of opinion here however as Cabrakan has earned the prestigious “Strong Prospects 1.” (which I am guessing makes him a mortgage job…)
FONTWELL – 4th SEPTEMBER
Seventeen days ago, Fontwell’s juvenile season opened with a maiden hurdle and the three-year-olds are set to return in what is a traditionally stronger contest. Though lacking the star power of Goshen, Blazing Bailey and Mr Thriller, who had all contested later events at the venue, it has been taken by the likes of King’s Wharf (2012), Vosne Romanee (2014), and Talking About You (2020) while Diable de Sivola would finish second in 2016. As such, while the average winners’ seasonal RPR from last month’s maiden was just 99.33, this contest has one of 110.03. The line up here consists of three with experience; amongst them two previous winners, including one from the Fontwell maiden, as well as the third from said contest; two winners from the flat – including the highest rated flat recruit to date – and an racecourse debutant. None of the form brought by the experienced runners exceeds a mark of 100 (though two have been given harsh official marks to that effect), but newcomers can be at something of a disadvantage at Fontwell. In terms of strike-rate, they fare just worse than average, but only Hereford and Taunton are trickier courses for juveniles to negotiate first time. Moreover, in the seventeen runnings of this contest since 2005, five had gone to newcomers, with the remaining twelve having already ran over hurdles; the impact values being 0.58 and 1.43 respectively. In terms of other course characteristics, Fontwell is a flat, left-handed track which invariably hosts its juvenile contests over eighteen furlongs; resulting in winning Dis and completion rates being on the lower side of standard. A couple of these have made the running under either code, and while nothing does so habitually, the pace should be honest without being particularly frenetic. The going has most recently been described as good and with mainly dry weather expected between now and post time, watering will be employed to maintain the good ground.Graffiti bg Gary Brown f7-0-0 (64) 70 j2-1-1 (106) 90 95
Sixties Icon (Excellent Art){A34}(0.82) 1/1 Banksy’s Art 100 3rd Juvenile Hurdle, Market Rasen 2018
The winner of that course and distance maiden covered in the introduction, Graffiti started off over a mile at Goodwood last September for Mick Channon. He then ran twice at Pontefract in the Autumn, finishing no nearer than eight lengths behind the winner in a pair of novice stakes. Following a winter break, he had a couple of spins on the all-weather in handicap company and while he finished last on each occasion, was at least able to finish closer. His initial mark of 71 was quite difficult to justify, and a return to the turf, drop to 67 and switch to Gary Brown’s failed to trigger a change in fortunes as he was tailed off at Pontefract over ten furlongs before looking decidedly slow over a mile when beating just one home at Newbury in June. Graffiti did shape as though he can get the trip over jumps and his full-brother, Banksy’s Art, managed to place third in a juvenile hurdle. His only other jumping relative, Big Kev (3/1), achieved little, although sire Sixties Icon (covered more in Mr Freedom’s profile) does have solid credentials for the sphere, course and time of year. Former inmates of Mick Channon’s have a solid winner-to-runner rate of 24.16%, although this drops to 19.09% when removing those who went to Sheena West; Banksy’s Art amongst them. Gary Brown himself had not enjoyed a winning juvenile from the nine he saddled since Hilali won Stratford in 2012, and the yard’s improvement rate of 16.67% is not encouraging. There was a distinct lack of confidence ahead of his Stratford bow, drifting to 25/1 from a morning show of 8s, and he hardly convinced in his temperament of jumping. Held up towards the rear, Graffiti took a keen hold as he hopped over his early hurdles, was tight and awkward at the fifth and missed the sixth. Though awkward again at the next, he did make headway over the hill and was on the leader’s quarters turning for home. From there, he looked a difficult ride under pressure and did not seem resolute on the run to the line, but while never looking to challenge the winner, Mutara, he did finish five-and-a-half lengths clear of the remainder. The form looks to amount to little as Mutata was a 55 rated flat horse who was well held on his debut, and subsequently a beaten odds-on favourite over course and distance. The remainder were either poor or badly underperformed. Little enthusiasm can be garnered from the clock either with the winning time some seven seconds slower than that posted by a 104 handicapper on the card. Five days prior to the Fontwell contest, Graffiti was given a spin on the flat in a twelve furlong Newbury handicap, but after again pulling in the rear found little when the race unfolded and was ultimately beaten twelve lengths. A recent spin was not particularly noteworthy for the trainer who is zero from twenty with runners returning within nine days. Nevertheless, it may have been a factor which enabled him to justify his being supported from 9/4 into 7/4 favouritism. Graffiti again pulled hard during the first circuit, but jumped somewhat better overall than he had at Stratford; with his wandering on the approach to a couple of early flights, skewing over another pair, and hitting the top of the sixth being the most egregious errors. Having been held up in rear during the first circuit, he moved into third along the back second time around before turning for home within a couple of lengths of the lead, travelling best of all. After the penultimate flight, he loomed alongside the leader while firmly on the bridle and following a jazzy leap at the last, was pushed out to extend a lengths advantage to a comfortable seven at the line. The form of the race was such that he did not have to improve from Stratford to win the contest, and the winning time, along with the fact that nothing jumped all too fluently, supports the notion that the race took little winning. With the benefit of course experience, Graffiti would be quite evenly matched with the reopposing Mutara, although none of the four to have come from that maiden have fared better than second in this race. The standard he sets is largely moderate and though he may not quite warrant a squiggle, there are probably a couple of hardier sorts in opposition should it turn into that kind of contest.Mutara bg Sean Curran f8-0-3 (55) 62 j3-1-2 (107) 87 97
Muhaarar (Lucky Story){3-c}(0.78) 3/2 Ramonex 136 1st 2m3f Handicap Chase (120), Catterick 2018
Making his debut at Kempton in February, Mutara finished no better than midfield on his first three outings. However, in five flat outings since his switch to handicaps in early April, he has yet to finish outside of the first four. It should be noted that these performances came off mark decreasing from 55 and that the winners’ enclosure has thus far eluded him; but by the same token, he has been a consistent animal. He was doing his best work towards the finish when third over eleven furlongs at Windsor in early May and returning to the turf after a Wolverhampton fourth, would twice find only one too good. At Leicester, he was no match for a horse who recently completed a four-timer, and at Chepstow last month, was bested by another subsequent winner. Mutara did little wrong on either occasion and has little to answer for in terms of attitude. Prior to this campaign, Muhaarar had one winner from seven juveniles and the jumpers that appear on the damline prior to Ramonex at 3/2 have been poor. Sean Curran had winners in the division; albeit at a winner to runner rate of 9.09%. None had scored first time out, which afforded lowered expectations for Mutara on his hurdling debut at this track on the tenth of July. Starting at 15/2, having been as short as 9/2 om the ring, Mutara was keen early on, and his being badly balked at the first put paid to his confidence as he was big and ungainly over the remaining obstacles. Never out of the rear, or threatening to get involved in the contest, Mutara was eased on the run-in; finishing over fourteen lengths behind Mucuna. There was ample scope for Mutara to leave that debut performance well behind, and eighteen days later back at Stratford, he found an opportunity which was enhanced by the market leaders disappointing. Donning first time cheekpieces, Mutara’s leap at the first was big, slow and untidy, but though not a model of fluency, his subsequent untidiness was relatively minor and not to the detriment to his performance. He settled quite well and tracked the leader before taking the lead at the hill on the second circuit. While he was being driven all along the final bend, he did not concede the lead and though steep at the last, he got away from the flight quickly enough and forged ahead on the run in to win by a length and a quarter from Graffiti. The form has since been somewhat advertised by the second and fourth filling the first two places at Fontwell, although it should be noted that it was a poor contest where none of the principles jumped well. Nevertheless, it was an improvement on his debut effort in terms of fluency and there was little to fault in his attitude. The withdrawal of Mucuna in a class three event back at Stratford a fortnight ago saw Mutara start the 4/6 favourite in a weak race for its type. However, he had become noticeably sweaty and, having the pace-making duties foisted upon him, was rather sketchy when hopping over the first three flights. Increasing the tempo going over the hill, he rounded the home turn with a three length advantage and appeared to have his main rival, Flintstone, outpaced; although not to the extent that his in-running price of 1.01 might suggest. By the time they reached the last, Flintstone had got to within a length and while Mutara was slightly the quicker away he was worn down at the half-furlong point before going down by a length and a quarter. Furlong for furlong, the winning time was the slowest on the card against the standard, and Flintstone subsequently disappointed when third at Worcester earlier this week. Mutara is quite evenly matched with Graffiti, and trainer Sean Curran did win this race with Talking About You in 2020, although neither set a strong standard for the flat recruits.Cabrakan bc Milton Harris f12-1-4 (76) 83
Divine Prophet (More Than Ready){1-x}(3.00) 3/1 Enqelaab 1st 2m2f Maiden Hurdle, Downpatrick 1993
The renaissance of Milton Harris will be of no mystery to followers of the juvenile hurdling division. Last season was an especially fruitful one with six of his eight representatives managing to land at least one race; headed by his first Grade One winner in Knight Salute. One remarkable aspect of this success is that five of those winners were bought at public auction with none commanding a fee exceeding 21,000 guineas, or bringing a BHA rating in excess of 75. The yard is already off the mark this term with Mucuna, and though changing hands privately, his latest introduction is the 76 rated Cabrakan. Formerly with Richard Hannon, who is also the source of last season’s Wensleydale runner-up for the yard, Genuflex, Cabrakan is the veteran of twelve races on the flat. His career began with a seventh placing in a Newmarket novice stakes last August, finishing just over fourteen lengths behind Coroebus. Later that month, he got to within a neck of shedding his maiden tag at Ffos Las in a race inundated with future winners, before closing his season with a fourth at Kempton. His return came in a mile handicap at Windsor in early April where he was a one paced fourth off 76. Stepped up to ten furlongs, he was within a couple of lengths of the winner when third of nine at Beverley, and last of four at Salisbury. After disappointing in a falsely run race at Doncaster, he found improvement for the application of blinkers and a step up to thirteen furlongs when a staying on third at Bath. In early July, Cabrakan was able to get off the mark on his ninth attempt when landing an eleven furlong Kempton handicap off 74. Settled in midfield and racing off a true galop, he was travelling best of all when turning for home in third on the inner. His response when asked to pick up at the distance was not immediate, but the penny dropped at the furlong marker and he ran through the line to win by a neck twice. The form has yet to be rigorously tested but the second and fifth have each won since. Cabrakan’s stint with Richard Hannon ended with a couple of lesser efforts in slowly ran races behind Caius Chorister, but he was back to something like his best on his stable debut in a racing league contest at Newcastle ten days ago. Racing over an extended twelve furlongs and attracting outside support to start at 14/1, Cabrakan raced in the rear and had yet to pass a rival with two furlongs left to run. He began to pick off rivals going into the final furlong; which he completed fastest of all to finish a two-and-a-half length fifth. He is now switched to the discipline for which he was bought and while statistics suggest that newcomers can find Fontwell to be tricky, Milton Harris has the most substantial 100% clear-round record of all British and Irish trainers, with his tally currently at fifty-six. Pedigree based evidence for hurdling potential is rather thin on the ground. Nothing up to the third dam has been tried over hurdles, although she did produce a maiden winner in Enqelaab, as well as the dam of low grade winning handicapper Mohtarres. The fifth dam has branches which extend to the likes of Turgeon, Lute Antique and Pique Sous from 5/5 onwards. Antipodean sire Divine Prophet raced neither outside of the Southern hemisphere nor beyond a mile. Set to have his first runner over hurdles, the 2016 Caulfield Guineas winner has a largely speed based pedigree, but is a reasonable height for a jumps sire and being a son of Choisir is a positive (Olympic Glory and Starspangledbanner each have 33.33% winner-runner rates while Choisir himself had one of 30%). In any case, Cabrakan has already proven himself a capable stayer and with the best part of a stone in hand of his rivals on recent flat form, he has solid prospects of making an immediate impact for his always dangerous trainer.Executive Pool bg Gary Moore f6-1-1 (54) 64
Churchill (Fastnet Rock){4-c}(0.80) 2/1 Final Approach 150 1st County Handicap Hurdle (G3,139), Cheltenham 2011
Despite being a winner on the flat, Executive Pool’s official rating of 54 is just a pound away from being the lowest in this line-up. Nevertheless, his pedigree and trainer make him difficult to dismiss on his hurdling debut. First-season sire Churchill stands at 16.2hh tall and though never quite proving that his stamina matched his class on the track, his offspring are showing themselves well capable of getting a trip and his career as a jumps stallion got off to a perfect start with The Churchill Lad. Executive Pool is out of a half-sister to the County Hurdle winner Final Approach, and is quite closely related to three other winning jumpers in Genuine Pearl (3/1), King Of Dubai (3/2) and King Red (3/2). Gary Moore has a strong winner-to-runner rate of 36.41% and his strike-rate at Fontwell is an excellent 28.72% which increases to 33.33% with hurdling debutants. He has won this particular contest three times from thirteen runners, with each success being a newcomer; including in 2017 with the 52 rated Lord E which Gary Moore trained himself on the flat. Executive Pool has also spent his career to date at Cisswood, which started off with three unremarkable efforts last Autumn in which he finished well beaten at Sandown, Goodwood and Chelmsford. His seasonal reappearance came in a 0-50 classified stakes at Brighton in early June over a mile and a half on soft ground. With first-time blinkers applied, he started the 10/3 second favourite having opened at 7/1 in the morning, and was sent straight into the lead from the outset. Setting a solid tempo, he was travelling strongest at the distance and although he drifted right and left across the track under pressure, he was always doing enough to hold the runner-up by half-a-length with the pair seven lengths clear of the rest. The runner-up has not been out since, but while the third and seventh subsequently won similarly weak events, a better indication of Executive Pool’s ability came later that month in a Windsor apprentice handicap over an extended eleven furlongs. Running off a revised mark of 55, he once again set a decent tempo and looked the most likely winner at the distance; trading as low as 1.26 in-running. He was caught inside the final furlong and carried his head high in the closing stages before going down by a length-and-a-quarter. Nevertheless, the winner was landing a brace under a penalty and the pair finished six lengths clear of the remainder. He was slightly below par when returning to the all-weather three weeks ago where he raced in midfield off a modest gallop before running on in the straight to snatch a five-and-a-half length third. This effort is somewhat excusable due to the lack of pace and a possible lack of fitness. While there is a class deficit for Executive Pool to overcome, he is still a largely unexposed improver with some fine attributes for a hurdling career. A respectable hurdling debut would not be unexpected, although there is a concern over the yard’s recent form.Mr Freedom bg Sheena West f7-0-0 (53) 57 j1-0-1 (-) 75 77
Sixties Icon (Sayif){9-c}(0.52) 4/1 Zero 128 1st 2m3½f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (112), Ascot 2007
As mentioned in Graffiti’s profile, juveniles that leave Mick Channon for Sheena West have a better record than those who go elsewhere and the same can be said for where Sheena West sources her juveniles. Her record for those from outside this connection reads as one winner from fourteen whereas those moving from West Ilsley to Falmer have an impressive winner-to-runner rate of 38.46%. Seven of these winners were rated 53 or less, which is encouraging for the latest to make that journey. Mr Freedom cost just £800 as a yearling, and after being beaten eleven lengths at Sandown on his debut last June, was beaten nineteen and fifteen lengths at Kempton and Salisbury before being put away for the winter. In May came his return in a Bath mile handicap off 59 for which he attracted outside support; starting at 10/1 having opened at twice the price in the morning. Pulling hard in the early stages, he struggled for room in the final couple of furlongs and though he only managed an eighth place finish, he was not given a vigorous ride in posting a new career best. He failed to build on that degree of promise in a similar contest at Ripon next time and while traffic issues were something of a feature, he had no such excuses when making no show whatsoever at Windsor next time. Given a two month break, a change of scenery, and a step up to a mile-and-a-half, Mr Freedom ran a considerably better race when returning to Windsor at the start of the month. Settling better on the prominent side of midfield, he was unable to accelerate with the principle as the race developed, but still ran on for a three-and-a-quarter length fourth of ten. His breeding offers mixed messages as the immediate damline is bereft of jumps experience until the winning novice handicapper Zero appears at 4/1, although the fourth dam also has another winner in Kristiansand and her next level of descendants includes the useful sorts London Prize and Categorical. The sire, Sixties Icon, has a fair winner-runner rate of 20.41%, his strike-rate before October is a healthy 32.14% and he has had four wins from twenty at Fontwell. Moreover, Sheena West has had three winning juveniles at Fontwell, including the 46 rated Feb Thirtyfirst, the 53 rated Hi Note, and the 52 rated Whipperway who scored on his hurdling debut. These factors did not translate into a successful hurdling debut at this venue seventeen days ago, for which he was mercurial in the markets before starting at 6/1. Taking a keen hold while racing at the rear of the field, his jumping, while largely safe, left plenty to be desired as there was not a single hurdle where he was not big, skewed, slow, awkward or any combination of same. It is then to his credit that he was able to make headway into a close enough third, and still look a feasible threat turning for home. This threat was short lived, however, as a lack of pace and fluency saw the leading pair get away just before the last, leaving Mr Freedom to finish a sixteen length third behind Graffiti. There was undoubted promise hiding in this performance and the yard’s juvenile strike-rate does jump up from 8.33% to 22.73% between first and second outings. If he has indeed learned from his debut then Mr Freedom would hold a good chance of finishing much closer to Graffiti, although whether he actually has is another matter.Miss Fedora bf Seamus Mullins Unraced
Helmet (Shamardal){12-b}(1.32) 3/1 Jurako 56.0 1st 3500m 4yo Claiming Hurdle, Compiegne 2005
The sole racecourse debutant in the line-up, Miss Fedora represents a Seamus Mullins with a fairly modest 11.67% winner-to-runner rate in the sphere, a first-time strike rate of 3.51%, and a zero from twenty-eight record with juveniles at Fontwell. Sire Helmet has a similarly modest winner-to-runner rate of 12.50%, but while two of the third dam’s hurdlers achieved little, a third, Jurako, won a French claimer at four. Channel Baie (3/2) is another winning descendent while the fifth dam produced the mighty Ouija Board as well as four winning jumpers headed by Spectrometer and Star Selection. Since 2004/05, only 25 from 1,038 previously unraced juveniles made winning debuts, and though far from irredeemable, the profile of Miss Fedora warrants little particular interest in this line-up.Strong prospects
1. Cabrakan
Reasonable prospects
2. Executive Pool
Feasible prospects
3. Graffiti
4. Mutara
5. Mr Freedom
Moderate prospects
.
Negligible prospects
6. Miss FedoraFar from being competitive, I routinely back both our selections and therefore have a “press up” when we agree.
For sure, I just doubled my bet on Cabrakan.
Great preview as always – much appreciated.
PS: This is completely and utterly YOUR thread.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Another good write up BH.
Being a glutton for punishment I’ve sided with Executive Pool, haunting thoughts of Hill Station still fresh in my mind.
Moore stable form is a concern but breeding looks plausible and he has plenty of size about him.
Mutara, Graffiti and the newcomer executive pool to fight this out.
I think that David Evans sent a Churchill runner to Gordon Elliott. Cabrakan has been withdrawn.In his absence I cannot split Graffiti and Mutara – looks like BH’s next preference is Executive Pool.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Hill Station has a new owner and remains with Gary, likely to run at Brighton 12th September.
Well handicapped on the flat?I’d have him 4lb ahead of his Flat mark based on my supposition as to his likely finishing position when falling on his hurdling debut.
But he was subsequently beaten 48 lengths – that would have to be a concern.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Seven-runner banquet at Plumpton on Sunday – I Have A Voice is my narrow choice over ITV Racing-televised Goodwood seller winner Borntobealeader in a contest where these two debutants make most appeal.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"The preview essay for Plumpton’s race has been posted on Fat Jockey (48 replies), Talking Horses (30 replies), Punters Lounge (14 replies) and Twitter (who knows?) where my handle is @HarchibaldS – short for Harchibald’s Sense of Urgency.
For anybody wondering why it has not been posted on by far the most prolific thread of its type (117 replies), the answer can be found in the lounge.
Those TRF articles posted on the 31st of August
Feeling somewhat strange and profoundly disappointed to have not posted it here. Perhaps that will change between now and post time, but if this steaming puddle of arse gravy is more valuable to the site, then so be it.
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