[Bachelors Hall]

Yes, sewing kit!

Somebody make this happen. Please.

[Bachelors Hall]

I am long overdue a haircut… I typically lose the winter coat at around Cheltenham time, but I am really vibing with it at the moment. I am sure that the imminent receding and greying of my hair is playing some part in my decision to persevere with it for as long as I can. Perhaps that is having an impact on my ability to read juvenile hurdles?

Newton Abbot 27th JUNE – PREVIEW NOTES

Unless stated, all figures relate to British and Irish juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05
For context, the average strike rate (SR) across all juveniles is 9.54%, winner-runner (WR) 19.55%, improvement rate (IMP) 36.90%, clear round (CR) 96.07%, prize money per race (PMPR) £1107.31
FS = Finishing speed from last.

Race History/Stats
* Introduced in 2021, two runnings to date
* No previous runner competed outside of ordinary company and only the two winners achieved a seasonal RPR exceeding 100 (both would also win again as juveniles).

Course Info
* Flat, very sharp, left-handed track
* Average winning Dis of 1.33 median, 1.47 mean are within highest third of all courses, as is the discrepancy against beaten horses
* Clear round rate of 94.20% second lowest in Great Britain, 90.91% rate for newcomers fifth lowest in country. Completion rate of 79.44% fourth lowest in country.
* Odds-on SR of 50% is within lowest third of racecourses.
* Average winners’ seasonal RPR of 108 lower only at Fakenham, Hereford and Uttoxeter
* Frontrunners can be at a disadvantage.

Ground & Pace
* Good, good to firm in places. Dry weather forecast with rain not expected to reach course by race time, watering to maintain.
* One has made running on flat in France while another rather tore away on hurdling debut. Solid pace anticipated.

Ceejaybe chg Jo Davis f2-0-0 (-) 29
Free Eagle (Duke Of Marmalade){9-c}(0.75) 3/1 Cyborg 122 1st 2m Maiden Hurdle, Ballinrobe 2010
Breeding
* Free Eagle 17.65% WR, 41.67% IMP
* Duke Of Marmalade 20% WR as damsire, 12.82% as sire
* Cotillion (3/2) only other jumps winner from third dam
Source
* Cost 4,500gns as yearling
* Juveniles trained on flat by trainer 0-8 WR, none improved on flat form
Trainer
* 11.11% WR, 0-16 first time out
Flat Profile
* Last on both starts on all weather over a mile in Feb/Mar, beaten at least 22½l on each occasion
Summary
* Not the worst pedigree but did not show enough in two flat runs to suggest he can be competitive at this juncture

Kilcummin grg Mark Gillard f7-0-1 (57) 64
Mastercraftsman (Dalakhani){9-b}(0.64) 3/1 Cult Classic 58.0 1st 3400m Conditions Hurdle, Pompadour 1999
Breeding
* Mastercraftsman 26.21% WR, 27 individual winners since 2004/05; behind only Galileo and Montjeu
* Dalakhani 17.02% WR as damsire
* Half-brother Cardinal Rule a modest maiden over jumps. Granddam Insight finished third in French Oaks, sibling of Saffron Walden
Source
* Cost £7,000 at the Tatts Ascot June sale via Neil King
* Most expensive juvenile of seven bought from sales by trainer, sole winner Karl Marx (r13w1)
* Sole ex-Joseph Parr juvenile 76 rated Age Of Sail – r3w0 juvRPR 111
Trainer
* 11.54% WR, 0-23 first time out
* First time CR rate of 86.96% lowest in lineup
Flat Profile
* Three runs at 2yo earned opening BHA mark of 65 which has dropped to 59 over course of four outings since April
* Should stay minimum trip over hurdles, given to wandering under pressure
Summary
* Leading juvenile sire, has not build on moderate 2yo campaign and still looks green. Potential to do better in due course.

Max Of Stars bf Ollie Pears f4-0-0 (55) 57 j1-0-1 (-) 83
Cloth Of Stars (Rock Of Gibraltar){31}(0.67) 3/2 Tiger Roll 174 1st Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2014
Breeding
* Cloth Of Stars first crop. 1st Ganay, 2nd and 3rd in Arc. 2/3 Elgin 3/2 Dodging Bullets, 1.62m
* Sea The Stars 35% WR as juvenile grandsire, 33.33% WR as sire.
* Four juveniles to date in France, two placed and one winning claimer
* Rock of Gibraltar 13.64% WR as damsire.
* Third dam, On Air, 4th in Kennel Gate. Produced useful Khachaturian and dam of Tiger Roll
Source
* €8,500 as yearling from Arqana
* Sole placed juvenile My Brother Jack, trained on flat by Pears
Trainer
* 0-8 WR. No runners at Newton Abbot. 100% IMP courtesy of My Brother Jack (sole qualifier)
Jockey
* Brian Hughes’s first ride in Newton Abbot juvenile, juvenile SR 15.04% highest in lineup
Flat Profile
* Made debut in February. Beaten at least eleven lengths first three outings in maidens at Southwell and Doncaster.
* Handicap debut off 56 at Southwell over 1m4f. Raced keenly with uncontested lead, headed final furlong, flashed tail under pressure. Finished 2¼l fourth of six.
Jumps Form
3/6/23 HEX 2m GGS 2/5 8.5l Hourless (NTO r0-w0-p0) FS-85% Rtg 83
(18/1|9/2) Steady1, big2, steady & close 5, blundered 8. Took keen hold, pulled self back into lead passing stands, clear going into back, headed home turn, held on for second.
Summary
* Distant relative of Tiger Roll and first-season sire not without potential. Best effort on flat came also most recent despite pulling hard and faltering late. Performed simililarly on hurdles bow at Hexham. Sets standard on jumps form, albeit a very modest one, and though patently vulnerable to anything with ability and aptitude, should still run her race and might well be better suited by Newton Abbot (even if it is not a course which always favours frontrunners).

Quizlet bg Mark Gillard f6-0-0 (55) 58
Time Test (Sakhee’s Secret){22-d}(1.00) 4/3 Band Of Outlaws 147 1st Fred Winter Hurdle (G3,139), Cheltenham 2019
Breeding
* Time Test two winners from two runners in juvenile hurdles (Never No Trouble and Hourless)
* Sakhee’s Secret 0-2 as damsire, 21.43% WR as sire
* 2/1 Talented Kid (PU only start), only close relative with jumps experience
Source
* Fetched 1,600gns at Tatts April Online
* Second least expensive juvenile of seven bought from sales by trainer, sole winner Karl Marx (r13w1) cheapest at £1,200
Trainer
* 11.54% WR, 0-23 first time out
* First time CR rate of 86.96% lowest in lineup
Jockey
* David Noonan only jockey in line-up to have won on juvenile at Newton Abbot
Flat Profile
* Unplaced in six outings, closest when 3¾l sixth of seven in Feb Wolverhampton handicap off 62. Had shown tendency to pull.
* Raced rather lazily on sole outing for new trainer when beating just one home in Salisbury handicap, 20l behind winner
Summary
* Both of sire’s juveniles to date have been winners. However, remainder of profile is patchy and questions to answer after modest reappearance/stable debut.

Uncle Matthew bg Evan Williams f6-1-0 (65) 69 j1-0-0 (-) 79
Fast Company (Manduro){13-c}(0.78) 3/1 Scriptwriter 134 5th Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle (G2,133), Ascot 2009
Breeding
* Fast Company since 2018/19; 38.89% WR, 22.39% SR (2nd highest) 64.29% IMP (5th highest)
* Won 2021 renewal of this race with Langafel
* Manduro 3-13 WR, 62.50% IMP as damsire, 32.14% WR as sire
* Half-brother pulled up sole jumps start. Nephew of Hunter’s Light. Fourth dam produced Darshaan, along with useful jumpers Daraydan and Darialann.
Source
* £16,000 Tatts Ascot March
* ex-John Gosden’s have below-average record in juveniles; WR 18.35%, IMP 22.97%
* First to join Evan Williams from Gosden’s
* Williams 31.75% WR with those bought at public auction. 29.79% for those costing £20,000 or less. Ex-Gosdens 18.60% WR <= £20,000
Trainer
* 27.73% WR, although only 10% since 2018/19
* 21.67% Strike rate during summer.
* No runners in race but 4 wins from 20 at Newton Abbot including with Barizan twice in 2009
Jockey
* Adam Wedge 94.74% CR lowest in lineup of jockeys with >100 juvenile rides
Flat Profile
* Five-race 2yo campaign starting in Autumn saw him finish no closer than fourth with a BHA mark of 62.
* Made winning return in 1m3f Southwell handicap off 62; starting slowly, prominent halfway and stayed on dourly to prevail by head. Third, fourth and fifth all placed next time.
Jumps Form
3/6/23 HEX 2m GGS 4/5 19.25l Hourless (NTO r0-w0-p0) FS-86% Rtg 79
(3/1|7/2) Steady hop1,2,3 steady slow 4, hop skew 5,wandered 6. Mid div, began to struggle midway along back, unable to quicken, came home own time straight.
Summary
* Trainer not as prolific in division as he was previously and recent yard form not inspiring, but has decent record in Newton Abbot juveniles. Pedigree is very solid, neither stamina nor attitude would be a concern, and flat form is strongest British form in this lineup by good half-stone. However, those leaving John Gosden’s often underperform when switched to hurdles, Evan Williams juveniles typically perform first time and confidence over hurdles needs to improve from Hexham where behind Max Of Stars.

Vitani grf Adam West f7-0-1 (42) 46
Roaring Lion (Dubawi){10-b}(1.91) 0.5 Iron Heart 114 1st 2m½f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (107), Newbury 2021
Breeding
* Roaring Lion first juvenile hurdler, won Eclipse, International, Irish Champion and QEII
* Grandsire Kitten’s Joy 1-7 WR as sire, sole stallion son Bobby’s Kitten 2-5 WR in GB/IRE
* Dubawi 26.92% WR as damsire, 33.33% as sire
* Half-brother Iron Heart won handicap as a juvenile, uncle Red Riverman won one hurdle and four chases, distant relative of Teaatral (5/2)
Source
* Ran once for James Ferguson before sold at Tatts December Mares for 8,000gns
* Trainer’s sole winning juvenile, Rolypolymoly, ran for Adam West on flat (BHA 63)
Trainer
* One winner from ten, none won first time out.
Flat Profile
* Shown only modest form in six starts for new trainer. Largely consistent since winter break without running beyond 50
* Stamina and attitude seem fine, appears to get unbalanced on undulating tracks.
Summary
* First runner over hurdles for ill-fated Roaring Lion, rest of pedigree perfectly reasonable. Conditions are such that she should run to form, although that is of a modest standard even in context of this lineup.

Waitara chf David Pipe f6-2-1 (30.0/66) TF68
Recoletos (Hernando){1-t}(0.54) 1/2 Theamoi 62.5 1st 3550m 3yo Handicap Hurdle (59.0), Fontainebleau 2022
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/waitara
Breeding
* Recoletos first juvenile runner. Won Moulin and d’Ispahan, 3rd French Derby. Half-brother to winning hurdler Pedregalejo. 1.63m
* Whipper’s sole juvenile stallion Very Nice Name 14.29% WR. Whipper himself 20% WR
* Hernando 29.27% WR as damsire inc. Punjabi, Adagio and Gaelic Warrior. 60.71% IMP
* Nephew of Timos. 0.5 Thea (1st 4yo Hurdle, Auteuil), 0.5 Ticinello (3rd 4yo Hurdle Enghien). 2/1 Trillion Stars, 3/1 Thagus (both winners)
Source
* 40.99% WR overall
* 7-22 first time ex-French Claimers
* Waitara second least expensive of such horses, only Jilaijone lower at €10,806; won first time at Fontwell last term for same owner.
* First export of Thierry & Gaël Lemer.
Trainer
* David Pipe 46.67% WR since 2018/19 (5th highest) 38.46% SR during June.
* Four winners from thirty-four in Newton Abbot juveniles
Flat Profile
* Beaten by at least 12l on both outings at two, but began 3yo campaign with win in Pau 2000m claimer (retained for €11,001)
* Forgiven sixth place finish next time having missed break. Second penultimate outing; winner (2kg lighter) had run of race, stayed on well from remainder.
* Last seen winning 2100m Toulouse claimer in mid March. Broke slowly but soon in lead racing keenly. Caught at distance but responded generously for pressure; winning decisively by length and a half.
* Fifth placed finisher only subsequent winner. Nevertheless, runner-up has since been consistent in handicaps off 62. Mark in mid-high 60s would be appropriate.
Summary
* Was initially set to line up in Hexham contest where last two runnings had gone to David Pipe trained ex-French claimers but for minor setback. Emerges on top at these weights, has shown consistent form throughout 2023 and a good attitude to complement same. First-season sire yet to be tested but has perfectly reasonable credentials and the damsire and damlines are encouraging. Slight concern about a lack of form shown on ground better than soft, but has much the strongest profile in a weak looking contest.

Outstanding Prospects
1. Waitara
Reasonable Prospects
.
Feasible Prospects
2. Max Of Stars
3. Uncle Matthew
Moderate Prospects
4. Kilcummin
5. Quizlet
6. Vitani
Negligible Prospects
7. Ceejaybe

[Bachelors Hall]

Caught some of the ITV coverage and quite liked the stuff with Ruby.

Definitely not a fan of the camera angles during the race though. The aerial shots are useless for race reading, the mobile camera is nauseating and the way they switched angles before, during and after the fences was infuriating.

If they are trying to make it dramatic for casuals, maybe I get it. But as someone who is into the substance of what is happening, I found the live production to be farcical.

[Bachelors Hall]

Hexham is very much the highlight of my summer… but the winter stuff can be alright sometimes…

HEREFORD 4th JANUARY
Unless stated, all figures relate to British and Irish juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05
For context, the average strike rate (SR) across all juveniles is 9.53%, winner-runner (WR) 19.40%, improvement rate (IMP) 36.96%, clear round (CR) 96.07%, prize money per race (PMPR) £1085.22

Race History/Stats
* Maiden Juvenile first held on card in 2017, 5 editions (abandoned 2021)
* Average winning Dis of 0.65 median, 1.11 mean lower than course average (1.22 and 1.43 respectively)
* Average winners’ seasonal RPR of 114.40 higher than course average, but still below par overall
* One winning newcomer (5.56% SR), rest had experience (13.33% SR)
* Gerolamo Cardano (1st 2020) 3rd in Finesse (poor edition), Krypton Gold (4th 2022) won Ascot juvenile handicap
* Buckle Street (3rd 2017) and Broughtons Admiral (5th 2018) went on to be fairly useful
* Star de Mohaison made winning GB debut in a novice on this card in 2005

Course Info
* Flat, sharp, right-handed track
* Average winning DI 1.32 (+0.05 cf. standard – lower in this contest)
* Average winners’ seasonal RPR 108.81 (-9.45 cf. standard – higher in this contest)
* Clear round 95.35% (-0.72 cf. standard), completion rate 81.41% (-5.84 cf. standard)
* Fairly standard insofar as markets are concerned
* Newcomers’ clear round rate of 90.82% is lower only at Taunton among GB courses with >100 runners
* Front runners have sixth best record amongst GB courses

Ground & Pace
* Soft, light rain forecast overnight, cloud and moderate breeze forecast for morning
* No habitual pacemakers in field

Triumph Odds
Just Another One 100/1

Apologise bg Oliver Greenall f4-1-0 (71) 76 j1-0-1 (-) 56 55
Fascinating Rock (Acclamation){22-d}(1.18) 2/2 Allee Bleue 141 1st 2m4½f Handicap Hurdle (125), Leicester 2017
Breeding
* Fascinating Rock second crop, 1 winning juv from 9 (Faron)
* Acclamation solid damsire
* Cousin of useful Allee Bleue, 3/2 with winning jumpers Doubly Guest, Augustine and Alexandra Romanov, 3/3 Titi de Montmartre
Source
* ex-Andrew Slattery juveniles 28.57% (2-7) WR, 60.00% IMP
* Oliver Greenall private sales; 66.67% (4-6) WR when from France, 0-6 WR from GB/IRE flat
Trainer
* 15.91% WR
* Most juvenile hurdle runs without fall or unseat (154)
* 2-11 at Hereford, 2nd in this race with Quids In 2017
* Yard gone month without win but came within nose at Warwick on New Year’s Eve
* First time strike rate 4.44%, second time 8.33%, third time 16.67%
Flat Profile
* Made debut in early August, fair efforts in midfield in first three outings in maiden company
* Scored on handicap bow at Killarney in mid-October off 65 over extended 12 furlongs on soft ground, 4/1 joint favourite
* Tracked leaders, led at distance, kept on to win by 1¼l
Jumps Form
* Hurdles/stable debut Market Rasen start of December, good to soft, 9/4 > 7/4 favourite of seven
* In touch but lost ground with slow and awkward jumps, still close leaving back but beaten before straight where blundered badly two out, won three way battle for 47l third
* First two finished second and fourth at Wetherby, fourth and fifth each finished slightly closer next time, winning time reasonable
Summary
* Won soft ground handicap on final start in Ireland. Backed on debut, shaped as though would improve for experience and will probably have to.

Archer bg Milton Harris f6-0-3 (59) ?
Nutan (High Chaparral){16}(0.88) 3/3 Alcatraz Island 61.0 2nd Grand Steeple Alain du Breil (L,58.0), Le Lion d’Angers 2021
https://www.racebets.com/en/horse-racing/race/details/id/5122598/external/21554 (Manheim)
https://www.racebets.com/en/horse-racing/race/details/id/5279103/external/21833 (Saarbruken)
Breeding
* Nutan on third crop, twelve runs without win from three juveniles, Sergeant (also Von Der Recke>Harris) won three handicaps in summer after juvenile campaign.
* High Chaparral decent juvenile sire, less so as damsire (11.54% WR)
* Closest jumps relative fairly useful French handicap chaser Alcatraz Island 3/3
Source
* ex-Von Der Recke 8.00% WR since 2004/05 (Mondul 03/04 dual graded winning juvenile for Harris)
* Federstar only winning juvenile from eight for Harris since Mondul, Brilliant, Leopold and Sergeant won at four
Trainer
* 26.76% WR, 43.33% WR since return in 2018/19
* Strike rates improve across first three outings (10.94%, 15.09%, 17.50%)
* Yet to saddle winning juvenile from three at Musselburgh
* Fair recent form; had winner on Boxing Day with Polyphonic and won flat handicap on Friday with Scriptwriter
Jockey
* 22.86% SR
Flat Profile
* ex-German trained, five starts in Germany, one in Switzerland, maiden
* Best placing in most valuable contest came when third over 1800m at Dielsdorf in May, finishing 3½l third to Swiss Derby 6th, 3l behind Swiss Leger runner-up
* Well beaten final two outings in summer, showing pronounced tendency to hang left. Official mark approximately 59
Summary
* Yard has history with German imports although while this one mixed it with Swiss classic horses, the form does not amount to much and latest efforts do not instill confidence.

Elmaftun grg Nigel Hawke f3-0-0 (55) 54 j2-0-0 (-) 22 31
Dark Angel (Arcano){5-d}(11.00) 3/1 Stamp Your Feet 138 1st 2m½f Handicap Hurdle (128), Hereford 2017
Breeding
* Dark Angel fair record
* Arcano 40.00% (2/5) WR as damsire
* 3/1 Stamp Your Feet fairly useful handicap hurdler, won over this course and distance
Source
* 11,000gns Tatts July
* ex-Kevin Prendergast 21.92% WR, 32.14% IMP
Trainer
* 17.95% WR, 29.03% IMP
* First time SR 4.00%, second time 5.26%, third time 18.92%
* Six runners at Hereford, none placed
* Overall, 4 winners from 19 since 21st December, winner at Plumpton on Monday
Jockey
* Second string
Flat Profile
* Beaten 20 and 19 lengths on two starts in Ireland at Cork and Navan during Spring, 200/1 beaten 26l GB/yard debut in Lingfield novice stakes in September
Jumps Form
* Hurdle debut in Ludlow juvenile early November, 50/1
* Keen, midfield, jumped poorly, left behind entering straight, finished tired, beaten 63l
* Last seen start of December at Market Rasen, 100/1
* In rear, jumped poorly and to left, detached back stretch, fell two out, stewards enquiry as to horse should have been allowed to continue that far
Summary
* Showed little on Flat in Ireland and regressed from poor hurdling debut on second start.

Just Another One bg Nigel Hawke f2-0-2 (-) 77 j2-0-1 (-) 105 108
Vocalised (Galileo){1-x}(1.09) 1/2 Leagan Gaeilge 116 1st 3yo Maiden Hurdle, Leopardstown 2019
Breeding
* Vocalised 7.41% WR; two winners – Leagan Gaeilge (Just Another One’s niece/half-sister) and stablemate I Have A Voice
* Galileo solid record as damsire
* Neither sibling able to place over hurdles
Source
* Unraced for Jim Bolger
* Ex-Bolger juveniles that did not go to Nigel Hawke 20.78% WR
* Bolger > Hawke juveniles 53.33% WR (8/15)
Trainer
* 17.95% WR, 29.03% IMP
* First time SR 4.00%, second time 5.26%, third time 18.92%
* Six runners at Hereford, none placed
* Overall, 4 winners from 19 since 21st December, winner at Plumpton on Monday
Jockey
* First string
Flat Profile
* Made racecourse debut at Nottingham in mid August, finishing 8½l second at 66/1, filled same position fortnight later at Ffos Las, 33/1.
* Form probably as good as anything seen in this line up and showed decent attitude
Jumps Form
* Hurdling debut in class 2 at Market Rasen in September, good ground, trimmed from 7/1 to 11/2 third favourite of five
* Held up off the pace looking in danger of becoming seriously detached when being ridden along the back. Hopped over the second and third, got in very close to the fourth and took his last two in the manner of a tired horse. Latter jumps are curious given that he visually finished strongly to take the runner-up spot on the flat. However, the closing sectionals were glacial compared to the other races on the card over the same trip so it is probable that the race simply disintegrated.
* Form done no favours by winner who has since been sold to race on the flat, third filled same position when well beaten by Dixon Cove at Hereford
* Second and latest outing came in Grade Two Prestbury Hurdle at Cheltenham two months ago. 20/1>66/1 in morning, 50/1>40/1 in ring
* Same raced Hawke ran Repetitio and Historic Heart; both would win subsequently as juveniles
* In rear, left behind going down hill, came home in own time. Ridden away from third, tight and awkward three out and went left two out but jumped better overall
Summary
* Bare form is ordinary but still reads well in context of this field and yard’s juveniles do improve with experience. Is unraced on soft although niece/half-sister Leagan Gaelige claimed her sole hurdles win on the surface.

Tessy Lad bg Richard Hughes f12-3-3 (73) 77 j1-0-1 (-) 92 103
Australia (Medicean){19-b}(0.67) 3/1 Comedy Act 111 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Plumpton 2010
Breeding
* Australia 19.23% SR, 30.77% IMP
* Medicean 5.00% WR as damsire
* 3/1 winners Comedy Act and Circus Clown, 4/1 Circus Star (2nd Triumph, 3rd Anniversary, 3rd Punchestown)
Source
* ex-Richard Hughes juveniles 0-13 WR 0% IMP
* Seven ran for Hughes in juvenile hurdles, Wholeofthemoon first to run into place at Wetherby in November
Trainer
* Yet to saddle any winning jumper, couple of placings recently, without flat winner for three weeks
Flat Profile
* Twelve runs and three wins; all of which came in handicap company; Newbury July 1m2f off 60, Windsor August 1m3½f off 64, Wolverhampton October 1m4f off 69
* Honest and consistent, usually racing near pace, highest official mark in line-up
Jumps Form
* Debut came in Newcastle introductory juvenile towards end of November, available at 3/1 in morning, 9/4 > 6/4 favourite in ring
* Tracked leader at modest tempo, jumped well, first error when steady and close to two out, steadied again into last, one paced on run-in, losing second close home
* Fourth and fifth filled first two placings next time while winner ran to level behind promising horse on New Year’s Day
Summary
* Highest official rating on flat and consistent horse in that sphere. Shaped wth plenty of promise on hurdling debut in Newcastle contest that is working out quite well.

Tropical Talent bg Sylvester Kirk f6-0-1 (63) 68
Nathaniel (Fastnet Rock){21-a}(0.91) No jumps relatives
Breeding
* Nathaniel 30.56% WR (Zanahiyr, Burning Victory, Navajo Pass) 50.00% IMP
* Fastnet Rock 12.50% WR as damsire, fair as sire
* No jumps relatives nearby
* 5/1 Sri Pekan who sired 19 winning jumpers; most notably Edmo Yewkay and Palua
* Sri Pekan 2-11 WR with juveniles including dual winning juvenile Don’t Call Me Derek – a 22/20 relative of Tropical Talent (common ancestress Wagtail b.1818)
Source
* With David Elsworth at two, ex-Elsworth juveniles 15.15% WR, 29.17% IMP
* ex-Sylvester Kirk juvs 24.24% WR
* All Kirk juvenile hurdlers trained by himself; 0-14 SR from 5 juveniles – highest RPR 86
Trainer
* See above
* No flat winner in 80 runs, no jumps winner for nineteen years
Flat Profile
* Six races altogether; four as two-year old where showed best form in three Kempton contests; beaten less than 4l in a pair of novice stakes and finishing 6½l fourth in a nursery off 70
* Couple of races in handicaps in April, beaten 7¾l at Southwell off 69, then tailed off at Nottingham off 66. Not seen since
Summary
* Strong sire and showed some ability at two. Not seen since running flat in April and little else encouragement in profile.

Twm Sion chg Bernard Llewellyn f2-0-0 (-) 42
Fight Club (Equiano){3-c}(0.25) 2/1 Starlit Night 81 1st 2m6f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (76), Stratford 2017
Breeding
* Fight Club, won G2 and G3 over 10f in GER, eventually ran over hurdles in GB. finished no closer than 24l to winner in three starts, sired three hurdlers, none finishing closer than 49l to winner in six combined starts
* Equiano 0-2 WR as damsire, 0-8 WR as sire
* Dam half-sister to very modest winning handicap hurdler
Source
* Those trained by Llewellyn on flat 0-10 from five juveniles
Trainer
* 24.14% WR
* 2-28 SR first time out
* One placing from eight starts at Hereford
* Ten weeks since last winner, latest runners well beaten
Flat Profile
* Two runs at Bath in Autumn 2021, last of eight on both occasions beaten 32l and 19½l, not seen since.
Summary
* Sire is a curiosity, no ability in pair of starts at two and not seen since.

Tying The Knot bg Alan King f6-0-1 (64) 76 j2-0-1 (-) 82 93
Noble Mission (Louis Quatorze){1-m}(0.76) 4/2 Stolen Light 101 1st 2m1f Novice Hurdle, Killarney 2006
Breeding
* Noble Mission stood in USA, now in Japan, three juveniles to date, one winner (Goobinator won twice in 2019/20)
* Louis Quatorze 0-2 WR as damsire
* American pedigree, fourth dam ancestor of winning jumpers Stolen Light (4/2), Danse Idol and New Rules (4/3)
Source
* 75,000gns at Tatts Guineas Sale at two
* Trained by Alan King on flat, self-trained juveniles have 50.00% WR (47-94)
* Such horses rated 62 and above have first time strike rate of 29.73%, second time 25.40%
Trainer
* More winning juveniles than any other trainer; 114 since 2004/05
* 20.00% SR at Hereford, sole runner in this contest (Big Boy Bobby) finished second last year
* Yard among winners but below usual form for yard
Flat Profile
* Maiden after six outings, finishing no closer than six lengths to winner
* Career best when third at Sandown at two (race ran to suit), well beaten in handicaps final two outings off 71 and 67 on good and heavy ground
Jumps Form
* Hurdle debut in mid-november Southwell juvenile, good ground, 3/1 second favourite of six gelded since final flat outing
* Held up, tight at first, trailed hind legs at third, awkward fourth, blundered three out, never able to make impression, beaten 34l finishing short head ahead of 50/1 shot
* Time not lamentable compared to others on card but all horses well beaten in subsequent outings
* Second hurdles outing introductory juvenile at Sandown at start of December, soft ground, 33/1
* Held up in rear off solid pace, occasionally cautious and made mistakes three out and last, but more sound than on debut. Passed well beaten horses but never involved and beaten 16l
* Decent time due in part to early pace, runner-up finished last in Finale next time
Summary
* Feasible pedigree and with leading yard. Glimpse of flat ability but trainer typically does better with this type. Improved from debut to second outing but more needed.

Highland Lass chf Richard Price f4-0-0 (10) 0 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Highland Reel (Dubawi){4-k}(0.79) 2/1 Crazy Queen 89 5th 2m 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Wexford 2016
Breeding
* Highland Reel first crop, good start, three winners from eleven including potentially useful Spartan Army
* Dubawi 30.43% WR as damsire
* Damline has no hurdlers of note
Source
* 1,000gns Tatts Autumn 2021 (unraced)
Trainer
* One winning juvenile from twelve (In The Crowd 2012/13)
* 60.00% IMP (3/5)
Flat Profile
* Four runs starting in May, beaten no less than 35l starting no shorter than 80/1, finishing ahead of no competitive horse
Jumps Form
* Sole outing in C&D fillies maiden in November, 250/1
* In rear, pulled hard, novicey jumps, detached half-way, pulled up; reportedly lost action
Summary
* Strong sirelines but no sign of ability on either code.

Jikala bf Venetia Williams j2-0-0 (-) ? 95
Berkshire (Network){u}(0.20) 2/1 Drole d’Histoire 61.0 1st Prix Achille-Fould (L,4yo+ Newcomers Hurdle), Auteuil 2018
Breeding
* Berkshire first crop sire, big horse (1.68m), won Royal Lodge and Darley Stakes, 4/2 with Tiger Groom, 4/3 Rashaan
* Yet to have GB/IRE jumper, 0-3 in France
* Network 3 winners from 7 as damsire
* 0.5 Happy Dancing achieved little in nine starts, 2/1 (dam’s full brother) Balsamo won AQPS chase at five, 2/1 Drole d’Histoire won listed newcomers hurdle, 2/2 Ifrane won Nimes handicap chase at 4yo, 3/1 Kario de Sormain won Prix Heros XII (G3) and Prix Georges Courtois (G2); herself dam of Hardkore (beat Good Risk At All on debut, fatal fall next time), Enee (won HcH at 6) and Falafel (won chase at 5). 3/1 Neige de Sormain (2×1.4yC Auteuil), 3/1 Umbertok (1.3yH Pau), 3/1 Baptist’Palace (1.HcC 6yo), 5/1 Orloph (1. Prix Morgex)
Source
* €22,000 Arqana Deauville Summer Sale; same sale Venetia Williams bought Ibleo for €210,000 in 2016 (beaten sole outing as juvenile, eventually classy 2m handicap chaser) and The Crooner for €14,000 in 2018 (0-3 as juve, winning handicap hurdler and chaser)
* David Morrison yet to export juvenile hurdler
* Venetia Williams 26.32% WR with ex-French hurdle recruits, 0-8 WR since 2015/16
Trainer
* 30.00% WR
* 10.29% overall first time strike rate
* 0-19 for French hurdle recruits, increases to 30.77% SR second time out
* 1 win from 9 at Hereford
* Yard in fair form
Jumps Form
* Racecourse debut; 24/4/22 Angouleme €13,000 filly’s conditions hurdle 3400m good to soft
* Held up towards rear, mistake at last in back but jumped soundly otherwise, headway to get within half a dozen lengths of leader entering straight but ultimately finished one paced fourth, beaten just under five lengths
* Winner subsequently placed in reasonable conditions hurdles and chases in provinces, third won minor contest next time, sixth runner up in minor claimer
* Second and final outing
* Second and latest start; 22/5/22 Dax €18,000 filly’s conditions hurdle 3500m good to soft; wore tongue tie
* Initially in rear, pulled self into tracking position first lap, bad blunder six out, awkward three out, off bridle and lost ground thereafter, tired went left two out, beaten 18l fourth
* Winner won similar contest in September
Summary
* French hurdles recruit who showed fair form on debut without obviously matching the experienced hurdlers here. Yard does well in sphere but this type improves with experience and pedigree suggests much the same.

Strong prospects
1.Tessy Lad
2.Just Another One
Reasonable prospects
3.Jikala
Feasible prospects
4.Apologise
5.Tying The Knot
Moderate prospects
6.Archer
7.Tropical Talent
Negligible prospects
8.Elmaftun
9.Highland Lass
10.Twm Sion

[Bachelors Hall]

Hearty congratulations to Ian for winning thread of the year twice on the bounce

Apologies for going quiet… Holidays, illness and writers block… Would like to improve the whole time management thing in 2023 but time will tell.

In meantime, preview notes for the first juvenile hurdle of 2023. Happy new year to all of you and all of yours :)

MUSSELBURGH 1st JANUARY

Unless stated, all figures relate to British and Irish juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05
For context, the average strike rate (SR) across all juveniles is 9.53%, winner-runner (WR) 19.40%, improvement rate (IMP) 36.96%, clear round (CR) 96.07%, prize money per race (PMPR) £1085.22

Race History/Stats
* Introduced to card in 2014; held nine times
* Average winners’ seasonal RPR of 125.78 some 8lbs higher than course standard
* Winning Dis of 1.00 median, 1.05 mean are much lower than course standard (1.26, 1.59 respectively)
* Six previous winners, eleven runners in total, went on to contest the Scottish Triumph; Fiveandtwenty the only to do so successfully, landing the double in 2021 before placing third in the Anniversary
* Project Bluebook (1st 2017) finished third in the Scottish Triumph and fourth in the Fred Winter before winning the Grade Two juvenile at the Fairyhouse Easter meeting
* Other notable juvenile performances; Herbiers (2nd 2021) won the juvenile handicap at Ascot, Nietzsche (3rd 2017) placed third in Fred Winter, Hannon (1st 2019) failed by a nose to win a Naas Grade Two novice
* Long term, Superb Story (1st 2015) won the County Hurdle the following year, Castafiore (Fell 2017) won the 2019 Altcar Novices’ Chase

Course Info
* Flat, sharp, right-handed track
* Average winning DI 1.42 (+0.15 cf. standard – lower in this contest)
* Average winners’ seasonal RPR 117.67 (-0.59 cf. standard – higher in this contest)
* Clear round 96.32% (+0.25 cf. standard), completion rate 90.81% (+3.56 cf. standard)
* Fairly standard insofar as markets are concerned
* Newcomers’ clear round rate 97.06% fairest of GB courses compared to experienced runners
* Previous course winners 28.00% SR (+5.45 cf. standard)
* Front runners have second best record amongst GB courses

Ground & Pace
* Soft, Good to Soft in places, steady light rain and gentle breeze forecast overnight
* Cabrakan made all (uncontested) when winning at Newcastle, Bringbackmemories disputed at Sedgefield and Duyken led on flat in France while racing keenly. Solid pace anticipated

Triumph Odds
Cabrakan 50/1

Cabrakan bg Milton Harris f13-1-4 (75) 83 j2-1-1 (-) 96 107
Divine Prophet (More Than Ready){1-x}(3.00) US Pedigree
Breeding
* First hurdler for Divine Prophet; Caulfield Guineas winner, reasonable height (1.65m), yet to have soft ground winner
* Grandsire Choisir fine juvenile stallion himself, 33.33% WR and 43.75% IMP as grandsire
* No nearby jumpers on US pedigree, 3/2 Dangerous Midge, 5/5 Turgeon and Lute Antique (jumps sires)
Source
* ex-Richard Hannon inmates solid WR of 21.21%
* Milton Harris two winners from four (Gulf Punch, Genuflex) with former Hannon horses
Trainer
* 26.76% WR, 43.33% WR since return in 2018/19
* Strike rates improve across first three outings (11.11%, 15.09%, 18.42%)
* Yet to saddle winning juvenile from three at Musselburgh
* Fair recent form; had winner on Boxing Day with Polyphonic and won flat handicap on Friday with Scriptwriter
Jockey
* Mitch Bastyan 22.86% SR
Flat Profile
* Ran thirteen times for Richard Hannon, collecting sole success in eleven furlong Kempton handicap in July off 74; coming off strong pace to win by a neck
* Largely consistent and responds well under pressure, but often let down by tardy starts
* OR of 75 third highest in this field
Jumps Form
* Made hurdles debut in Exeter juvenile in November, starting 9/4 second favourite of five having been available at 7/2 in morning
* Tracked and disputed with eventual winner at fair tempo, novicey at first but neat for much of remainder. Slightly slow away from two out but marginal lead at last where got in close and stumbled on landing. Tried to challenge again on run-in but squeezed out and forced to switch. Kept on but probably second best in any case.
* Pair five lengths clear of the remainder, form yet to be tested, looked fair at time.
* Returned six days later for quite valuable Introductory Juvenile at Newcastle donning first-time cheekpieces and starting solid 15/8 second favourite
* Given uncontested lead and set a steady tempo, kicked on from three out and driven out on run-in to win by two lengths
* Slightly awkward at first, third and fifth, and flattened the second, but jumped well in the straight
* Fourth (the reopposing Freddy Robinson) and fifth filled first two places in similar contest at Musselburgh the following week
Summary
* Just about strongest hurdles form in field and front-runners do well at Musselburgh. Penalty to shoulder and easy lead not assured but battling qualities could be telling.

Freddy Robinson bg Brian Ellison f10-0-2 (62) 74 j2-1-0 (105) 92 107
Adaay (Indian Ridge){4-k}(19.00) 0/5 Go Fox 114 1st 2m Handicap Hurdle (105), Perth 2021
Breeding
* Adaay second season sire, short, won Sandy Lane and Hungerford, all three hurdlers have been winners, all three juvenile hurdle stallion sons of Kodiac have produced winners in sphere
* Half-brother Go Fox a winning handicap hurdler, cousins Conducting, Cape Arrow (won HcH as juv) and Goodwood Starlight also winning jumpers
* 3/1 Hidden Cove, 2/4 Tile Tapper, 4/3 Christopher Wood, 5/3 Paint The Clouds, 5/5 Max Dynamite
Source
* With current trainer on flat, such Ellison juveniles 28.95% WR 41.38% IMP
* Bought in for 3,000gns at Tattersalls Autumn Sale
Trainer
* 31.18% WR
* 3/39 (7.69%) SR at Musselburgh, 0-5 in this contest
* Yard without winning jumper since Freddy Robinson four weeks ago, couple of recent seconds on flat
Jockey
* Sean Quinlan 13.33% SR at Musselburgh (6.08% overall)
Flat Profile
* Ten flat outings, best placing a second in Redcar seller over a mile on last start in sphere.
* Initially rated 76 but drop to 62 a fair reflection of overall form
* Seemingly failed to stay on sole try beyond a mile, has raced freely and looked suspect under pressure
Jumps Form
* Hurdling debut came in Newcastle Introductory Juvenile, uneasy 16/1 outsider
* Raced keenly in rear, tight at second, close at sixth and hopped through top of three out. Squeezed out at penultimate flight, made a couple of places on run-in to finish 6½l fourth
* Returned for similar contest at Musselburgh following week, opened at 12/1 in morning but started 11/2 third favourite of six
* Still enthusiastic but settled better in rear, awkward over first two flights but fluent from thereon apart from clipping three out
* Travelled well to move into share of lead two out, led by two lengths at last, quickened clear run-in to win by eight lengths
* Reasonable time compared to handicap on card (also steady tempo), favourites jumped poorly, form untested but runner-up since improved on flat
Summary
* Probably already better over hurdles than on flat and looked impressive when winning over C&D last month. Form has holes and while now more experienced than when meeting Cabrakan at Newcastle, race may not be run to suit given stamina not yet fully proven at solid pace.

Bringbackmemories bg John C McConnell f7-0-4 (82) 88 j2-0-2 (-) 110 106
Iffraaj (Shamardal){8-k}(1.74) 3/2 Paso Doble 131 3rd Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Kempton 2021
Breeding
* Iffraaj 13.51% WR, Shamardal 14.71% WR as damsire
* Closest jumps relative on damline the modest Be Faithful at 3/1, useful types Paso Doble, Batave and Bailarico appear at 3/2
Source
* ex-Ger Lyons 22.62% WR, 47.37% IMP
* 0 winners from 5 when sold out of claimers
* Bought for €20,000 after final start
Trainer
* 20.93% WR
* Two winners from four in this contest (Hannon 2019, Never Do Nothing 2020); beaten runners making hurdling debuts
* Three winners from fourteen since Christmas
Flat Profile
* Failed to win in seven starts but reached the frame on three occasions.
* Best efforts came at Roscommon over ten furlongs, finishing second in a Median Auction race in May on soft, and in a claimer on his final flat outing on good in August
* Looked one paced and given to wandering under pressure. Ran up to and beyond OR of 82 on several occasions
Jumps Form
* Made debut in useful looking contest at Down Royal, drifted from morning show of 6/1 before settling at 9/1 in ring
* Sent off towards rear, made headway along back, just behind leading pair at distance, wandered under pressure and missed final flight (had jumped soundly to that point), no match for winner but ran on to make seven lengths on third with the trio fourteen lengths clear of remainder
* No subsequent winners from down field but first and third matched form next time at Listowel; the former then winning impressively in USA
* Second and latest outing came in Sedgefield maiden towards end of September where a solid 6/4 second favourite
* Raced keenly in prominent position, missing third flight only serious error, going well at top of straight but unable to match winner’s speed. Lost battle for second on run-in, finishing 9½l third, 19l clear of remainder
* Form working out well for course; winner McTigue followed up in Auteuil Grade II, second placed My Brother Jack filled same position behind Scriptwriter at Sedgefield and the fifth placed Silver Vision at Musselburgh. Fourth placed Vintage Valley also won next time out
Summary
* Down Royal and Sedgefield form look good on paper and give him edge at weights. Yard also likes this race. Suspect attitude is a concern.

Duyfken bg Nick Alexander f6-0-1 (33.0/72.6) 68
Le Havre (Monsun){1-n}(0.87) 0.5 Zoffanien 138 4th Champion Four Year Old Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2021
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/duyfken
Breeding
* 1 winner from 11 GB/IRE, 16.67% IMP, 18.42% WR in France
* Monsun 37.84% WR as damsire
* Half-brother to decent juvenile Zoffanien, nephew of Amarak (1st 4yo Auteuil Hurdle, 3/2 Crossword (2 wins in claimers). 3/3 Top Of The Glas 3/3 Superb Story 3/4 Le Vagabond 4/2 Silence Reigns
Source
* ex-Carlos Laffon-Parias 28.57% WR, 9.09% IMP; El Fontan sole export from fourteen to achieve RPR exceeding 120 as juvenile
* Sold for €28,000 at Arqana Deauville Summer
* Nick Alexander bought his sole winning juvenile (Wakool) at same sale in 2019 for €48,000
Trainer
* One winner from five in division, four ex-flat horses all rated at least 77 in that sphere
* Couple of seconds in past fortnight but yard largely out of form
Flat Profile
* Winless in six outings, his best effort came when second on his penultimate start in a 2400m Longchamp handicap in early June, racing off 33 (72.6)
* Racing keenly and setting an even tempo, he was challenged approaching the distance and while he kept his rivals at bay for the next furlong, seemed unwilling to give best and ultimately went down by a length and a quarter
* He was last seen racing off the same mark at Le Lion d’Angers where he again made the running, but faded in the straight having done too much early
Summary
* A probable stayer but one with a suspect temperament. Form puts him in 75th percentile of all juvenile recruits but leaves him slightly short in this company first time.

Jad Mahal bg Maurice Barnes f5-0-1 (65) 72 j1-0-0 (-) 21 26
Dabirsim (Shamardal){4-m}(2.25) 0.5 Selma 119 3rd 3600m 3yo Handicap Hurdle (62.0), Auteuil 2021
Breeding
* Dabirsim’s six juveniles have failed to win in eleven starts with their PMPR at £64
* Shamardal 14.71% WR, 23.53% IMP as damsire
* Family of Dubai Millennium (3/1), half-sister Selma had fairly useful form as 3yo handicapper in France
Source
* Formerly with Alan King, those who left Barbury Castle have two wins from eight in division;-
* Royal Sunday won a Hereford juvenile maiden in April 2018 on his hurdles bow for Alex Hales, Kings Creek won on his second outing for Iain Jardine having twice been beaten over hurdles for King
* Having fetched £34,000 as a two-year-old at the Goresbridge Breeze Up, he was let go at this August’s Goffs UK sale for £2,000 after one run over hurdles
Trainer
* 8.70% WR, although 50.00% IMP
* Won an Ayr novice with Currahee in March 2008 on fourth hurdles run having bought him for 2,500gns at the DBS December Sale
* Winless from 30 runners since then, 0-6 at Musselburgh
* No winning jumpers from 23 in three months
Flat Profile
* Ran four times on flat prior to hurdling debut, with sole worthwhile form coming by way of 2¼l third in Wolverhampton maiden at two
* Beaten twelve and thirteen lenghts in Spring, then tailed off in first-time visor when last seen in July
Jumps Form
* Very easy to back ahead of season’s curatin raiser at Hexham (2/1 in morning, opened 3/1 in ring, 6/1 at off)
* Raced keenly in midfield, big over second, steady and close at fifth, faded afterwards, finished tailed off
Summary
* Since May, he has been gelded, had a wind op, been tailed off under both codes and sold cheaply. Yard capable of getting something from bargain purchases but unlikely to make much impact at this stage.

Master Oliver chg Iain Jardine f3-0-1 (60) 65
Mastercraftsman (High Chaparral){14-b}(0.78) 3/1 Plinth 92 1st 2m5½f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (78), Market Rasen 1997
Breeding
* Since his first crop in 2014/15, Mastercraftsman has sired 25 winning juvenile hurdlers; the most in GB/IRE, 6 clear of Authorized
* Mastercraftsman above average in all metrics apart from clear round; 25.51% WR, 12.77% SR, 44.44% IMP
* High Chaparral successful sire, less so as damsire but broodmare progeny still have 54.55% IMP
* Uncle dual G1 winner over 7f in New Zealand, only jumps relative modest winning handicapper Plinth (3/1), jumps sire Jupiter Island 4/1
Source
* Seven of yard’s juveniles trained on flat by Iain Jardine, no wins from twenty starts
* Incidentally, of three that he trained on flat that went to other yards as juveniles, Must See The Doc (Dan Skelton) and Jorgie (Jim Goldie) were both dual winners
Trainer
* 13.64% WR
* 4.76% SR first time out
* 1 win from 20 at Musselburgh, 0-5 in this race although did saddle Oot Ma Way to finish 50/1 runner-up last year
* Couple of flat winners in past fortnight
Flat Profile
* Made debut in Musselburgh seller over extended twelve furlongs in mid-October. 12/1 > 8/1 in morning, 9/1 > 16/1 in ring
* Green and one paced, 3l fourth of five, fancied horses disappointed
* Some market support, prominent but weakened off steady pace in Wolverhampton novice stakes
* Last seen in Southwell novice stakes 23 days ago, started 10/3 having been 8/1 during day
* Held up, headway in straight, plugged on for four length third under claimer
* Likely stayer, still green
Summary
* Excellent sirelines and yard had big priced runner-up last year. However, late starter who still looks green and would need to improve considerably first time.

Paddy’s Fancy grf Oliver Greenall f5-0-0 (53) 55 j1-1-0 (-) 92 92
New Bay (Mizzen Mast){8-h}(1.22) 0.5 Caballine 91 5th Fillies’ Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Doncaster 2020
Breeding
* New Bay second crop, two winners from four juveniles to date, quite short, won French Derby, son of Dubawi (9 winning juvenile sires from 11)
* Half-sister a moderate juvenile, nearest winner on damline 3/1 Light Programme (won handicap hurdle off 73)
Source
* Only other self-trained Greenall juvenile the 47 rated Mi Laddo; collected prize money
Trainer
* 15.91% WR
* Saddled Herbiers to finish 50/1 second in this race in 2020
* Trainer with most juvenile hurdle runs without fall or unseat (153)
* Yard gone month without win but came within nose at Warwick on New Year’s Eve
Flat Profile
* Thrice down the field at two, beaten less than six lengths on couple of handicap runs in early summer off 55
Jumps Form
* Made hurdles bow following five month break in Leicester fillies’ juvenile contest (good to firm), first-time cheekpieces, started 9/2 third favourite having started day at 12/1
* Started prominently, steadied and slow over first two, went rear. Big over fourth, neat over next two, headway approaching penultimate flight where untidy, just about tidiest over last, won on the nod after battle to line while still looking green, front pair eleven lengths clear
* Time modest due partly to steady tempo, form amounts to little outside of unexposed French recruit in second; trainer has low first time strike rate so perhaps to credit
* Stepped up in class for listed fillies’ contest at Aintree, started 28/1
* Raced in rear, keen early, neat over first few jumps, unable to get close, mistakes over final two, finished 20½l sixth ahead of beaten horses
Summary
* Modest on flat but landed gamble in weak Leicester contest on hurdling debut. Overfaced at Aintree and something to find in this company.

Sanitiser bg Archie Watson f12-4-2 (90) 97
The Gurkha (Dalakhani){23-a}(0.41) 4/1 Former Senator 108 1st 2m Maiden Hurdle, Kilbeggan 2006
Breeding
* The Gurkha second crop, three winners from seven to date (Sonning, Champion Green, Addosh), quite short, Sussex Stakes winning son of Galileo (26.79% WR as grandsire)
* Dalakhani fair as sire and damsire
* Third dam Dance Design, herself a niece of winning hurdler Former Senator, 5/1 Executive Perk
Source
* ex-Paul Cole juveniles 14.29% WR
* Bought in for 20,000gns at Tatts Autumn Sale
Trainer
* Archie Watson without winner from two, both placing third without meeting market expectations (Alazwar, Noble Anthem)
* 53% strike rate with all hurdlers this season
* Fair recent form on flat
Jockey
* Brian Hughes winning most rider of juveniles in line-up (59 since 2004/05)
* 17.65% SR at Musselburgh (14.94% overall)
Flat Profile
* Won four from twelve on flat, winning three times at two and again on penultimate outing
* Latest win came in ten furlong racing league handicap at Windsor at start of September off 86, held up, headway from distance, led half-furlong, driven length clear
* Disappointed week later in similar contest at Southwell
* Prone to taking a keen hold and hanging under pressure, highest rated in line-up and generally runs to mark
Summary
* Highest rated flat horse in field, yard doing well with hurdlers (if not yet juveniles) and good Musselburgh pilot on board. Feasible pedigree but questionable temperament.

Ancora bf Ewan Whillans j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Amaron (Law Society){20-c}(2.27) 1/0 Ajesha 2x1st 4500m Listed Chase, Baden-Baden 2007
Breeding
* Ancora Amaron’s first juvenile in GB/IRE, one winner from five in France
* Law Society 22.86% WR as damsire
* Dam won two listed chases in Germany, winning German hurdler Areal at 4/2 on damline
Source
* Cost £12,000 at Goffs Yorton 2021
Trainer
* Ancora first juvenile for trainer
* Without winner in nearly four weeks, sprinter Ramon Di Loria has twice gone close
Jumps Form
* Sole racecourse outing came over course and distance in early November, started 100/1
* Took keen hold in rear, big and skewed over early jumps, detached in back straight, pulled up before turning for home
Summary
* Fair German pedigree but C&D debut two months ago offered absolutely no encouragement.

Strong prospects
1. Cabrakan
Reasonable prospects
2. Bringbackmemories
3. Freddy Robinson
4. Sanitiser
Feasible prospects
5. Paddy’s Fancy
6. Duyfken
Moderate prospects
7. Master Oliver
Negligible prospects
8. Jad Mahal
9. Ancora

[Bachelors Hall]

Dixon Cove was actually a decent price at the opening show (8/13 iirc) and I was quite pleased with getting the distant second correct. That said, this is a fantastic little race… Fantastic to the point that even though I am in lovely Lausanne, I opted to write a full essay for the contest…

PRESTBURY HURDLE
Cheltenham’s Prestbury Hurdle will be the first graded contest of the season in the division. For as long as there has been a Mackesons Gold Cup, a juvenile hurdle has also been held at the meeting. Prior to its elevation to Grade 2 status in 2004, the last two horses to place in both the Prestbury and the Triumph were Katarino, winner of both events on 1998/99, and Against The Grain who was second in each contest during the 1984/85 season. However, since 2004, the race has produced two Triumph winners (Katchit 2006/07, Defi du Seuil 2016/17), five Triumph seconds (Fair Along 2005/06, Franchoek 2007/08, Barizan 2009/10, Far West 2012/13 and Adagio 2020/21) and another five who would finish third. Indeed, while the Finesse and Adonis have produced three winners of the Triumph, the Prestbury has been the most prolific British Triumph Hurdle trial in terms of combined wins and placings. Furthermore, since 2004, the Prestbury also had seven Finale winners, four winners of the Anniversary, and another three in Punchestown’s Champion 4YO contest. Five Prestbury graduates ran into a place in the Fred Winter, although none of them won either contest.

In keeping with the quality of juveniles during the summer and autumn, this year’s renewal looks comparatively average at this juncture. The would-be front three from the Wensleydale reoppose, although those have yet to breach the 120 mark. Indeed, the best English form represented here came at Sedgefield when Scriptwriter made a winning debut. The remaining English form comes from the runner-up in a below-par Market Rasen contest which is not working out well. Ireland supplies the strongest winning form in the shape of War Correspondent, although the most substantial overall comes from a Nicholls trained ex-French recruit who mixed it with the best of the spring contingent. The line-up is completed by three newcomers with above average, if not outstanding profiles.

Given the quality of runner Cheltenham typically attracts, the average beaten DIs of 1.00 median and 1.36 mean are already low. Nevertheless, the winning DIs of 0.91 and 1.07 are lower still which is indicative of the necessity for stamina at the venue. While few would claim that Cheltenham is an especially easy course to jump around, its clear round rate of 97.08% is still one of the highest in the country, suggesting that bad jumpers tend not to get sent to Cheltenham. Hurdles experience is beneficial in this contest as debutants in the sphere are without a win from nineteen attempts, although four (Afsoun, Roc d’Apsis, Baraka de Thaix and Hargam) have reached the frame. Moreover, winning hurdling form is also quite essential as the races only previously successful maidens were Pistolet Noir (second favourite in the 2009 renewal) and Sam Winner (already thrice runner-up at Auteuil in 2010). The going at Cheltenham is currently good, with dry and breezy weather forecast between now and post time. None of the ten strong line up has made the running in the past, but a few have raced prominently and keenly. As such, while a particularly searching gallop is unlikely, there are enough energetic bodies to anticipate an honest enough tempo.

Triumph Odds
Blueking d’Oroux 33/1
Medyaf 33/1
Scriptwriter 40/1
Perseus Way 50/1
Tuddenham Green 50/1
War Correspondent 50/1
Mr Freedom 66/1
Just Another One 100/1

Medyaf bg Dan Skelton f4-0-0 (64) 64 j2-2-0 (123) 114 116
Sea The Moon (Rock Of Gibraltar){13-e}(0.78) 3/2 Poet 127 1st 2m½f Maiden Hurdle, Newbury 2012
Juvenile hurdlers who start their careers with John Gosden have a winner to runner rate of 18.10% which is close enough to average. However, only Pied Piper recorded an RPR exceeding 140 during their first campaigns over hurdles and their improvement rate stands at just 21.74%. A half-brother to a Group 2 winner who cost 110,000 guineas as a yearling, Medyaf did not live up to expectations on the flat as he finished nearer last than first on all four flat outings – although his final BHA mark of 64 meant that he left Clarehaven Stables on a lower foundation than most of his ilk. His first two outings last Autumn, at Nottingham and Newcastle, were not without promise as he shaped as though he would improve with age. However, the application of blinkers for the second half of his flat career cultivated a regression in both form and attitude, and he was allowed to leave Gosden for just 9,000 guineas at the Tattersalls February Sale. There, he was purchased by Craig and Laura Buckingham and he would join a Dan Skelton yard with a fine record in the division. His winner to runner rate of 38.20% and improvement rate of 49.44% are above average and his clear round rate of 98.53% is the highest of any trainer with fifty or more juveniles to his name. Medyaf’s pedigree also gives cause for optimism for his new vocation as sire Sea The Moon has a fine winner runner rate of 38.10% headed by The Tide Turns, Tritonic and another Skelton inmate in Allmankind. Jumpers do not immediately appear on the damline, although the third dam produced the dams of useful winner Poet and High Stratos with the talented French chaser Sans Commission appearing at 5/2. Medyaf made his hurdling bow at the start of October in a Stratford maiden Skelton used to introduce Too Friendly to make a winning debut last season. Opening at 10/3 in the morning, he had drifted out to 9/1 before being sent off the 7/1 fourth favourite of seven. Tracking the leader from the outset, Medyaf was understandably fresh on his first racecourse appearance in nearly eight months, although did not pull particularly hard. He did miss the second, got in close to the fourth and was skewed over the next, but his round of jumping was otherwise decent for a newcomer. The front pair were a long way clear by the time they turned into the straight, and though by no means a certain winner approaching the last, he did appear to be travelling better of the two when La Breille’s fall left him a distance clear. The race had lost much of its depth when the easy-going Caesar’s Palace was pulled up quickly after two out, but the form received a boost when La Breille gained compensation in a fillies’ event at Fakenham. Medyaf reappeared just over a fortnight ago in the Wensleydale Hurdle; a contest Dan Skelton won with Langer Dan, and placed with his other two runners. Drifting from 2/1 to 4/1 during the day before being clipped a point in the ring, Medyaf raced third in a tight four runner field; getting close to the second and eighth, and tight at three-out, but otherwise jumping fine. He was travelling as well as the remaining trio entering the straight and was able to surge ahead of his remaining rival approaching the last. Medyaf began to wander under pressure on the run-in and briefly appeared to take his mind off racing when bumped by the riderless Mr Freedom. Nevertheless, he was happy to run again once getting a lead from his free-spirited companion. The lessons revealed by this performance are unhelpfully cryptic; particularly as his following Mr Freedom compromised any real elucidation of his resolve and his being a bit quicker than Tuddenham Green was not a revelation. However, the quality of form and its correspondence with the clock suggests that it was quite moderate for listed company. With Medyaf the only runner shouldering a penalty, it is more likely that he will emulating Cabot Cliffs’ attempt to run into a place for connections last year, as opposed to Allmankind’s winning first prize in 2019.

Blueking d’Oroux bg Paul Nicholls j3-1-1 (68.5/150.7) 119 130
Jeu St Eloi (Blue Bresil){14-b}(1.00) 1/0 Belle du Bresil 58.0 4th Prix Wild Monarch (L,3yHF), Auteuil 2015
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/blueking-doroux
Ex-French hurdlers who join Paul Nicholls as juveniles have a terrific winner to runner rate of 62.5%, with the likes of Far West, Sanctuaire and Monmiral among the many who moved to Ditcheat before the Summer. Thus far, the one horse who matches this description this season is the thrice raced Blueking d’Oroux. Sire Jeu St Eloi, a six race maiden over jumps, is now onto his third crop of jumpers and while he has yet to produce any superstars, his winner to runner rate of 33.33% is respectable. Blueking d’Oroux’s dam finished fourth in the Prix Wild Monarch (a listed contest for unraced hurdlers), although the remaining distaff side of the pedigree is rather threadbare as the next winning jumper, classy juvenile Petite Parisienne, appears at 4/2. Blueking d’Oroux was initially under the care of Arnaud Chaillé-Chaillé, whose exported juveniles six winners from ten, including Djakadam, Charli Parcs, Dicosimo and, Diego du Charmil; the only previous Chaillé-Chaillé juvenile to join Paul Nicholls – incidentally for the same owner. Blueking d’Oroux began his career at Fontainebleau in mid-March, starting the race at 9/1. Prominent in the early stages before tucking in behind the leaders, he jumped well enough in the main save for steadying slightly at a couple. He was briefly outpaced after two out, but after being ridden into the last, where he reached for the flight, he landed in the lead and was ridden out to win by three-and-a-half lengths. The subsequent form of those in behind has been much of a muchness although the seventh did win a claimer easily next time out and fourth placed Castellet eventually ran second in a listed race. Taking a step up in class for the Prix Champaubert, he was sent off at just under 5/1 while receiving three kilos from Losange Bleu, and four from Whymper. Settled midfield and in touch, he posted another respectable round of hurdling, only slightly steadying at a couple along the back. He was close up and travelling well turning into the straight, but as much as he was in contention during the battle to the line and managed to get the better of Whymper in the final strides, he never looked like landing the decisive blow on the winner. The final of Blueking d’Oroux’s French outings came in the Prix Go Ahead, the first listed race of the season for experienced colts/geldings, and a contest from which Paul Nicholls sourced Sam Winner (2nd in 2010), Keltus (6th in 2013), Qualando (3rd in 2014), and Pic d’Orhy (1st in 2018). Though he was the only runner in the field introduced in a contest worth less than €20,000 to the winner, Blueking d’Oroux started the 2.8/1 second favourite of six. Tracking the leaders off a steady tempo, his early jumping was sound with only minor blemishes up to getting in close to the last in the back. He was outpaced on the turn for home and dropped to last when landing steeply at two out. Like the remainder of the tightly packed field, he had yet to be asked any serious questions approaching the last. However, an awkward, reaching jump put him at a distinct disadvantage on the sprint to the line, and he probably did well to go into fourth, three and a half lengths clear of the last pair. The form of the race has worked out well with the first and second confirming their places at the top of the division in the Prix Aguado, and the fifth an easy winner next time at Clairefontaine. Though Losange Bleu has not been out this autumn, the form has been further substantiated with third placed Libueno, and the fifth placed David du Berlais each winning valuable contests at Auteuil. Being bred to make a juvenile and having twice already met with defeat, Blueking d’Oroux could not be readily described as unexposed or scopey. Nevertheless, he has mixed it with established, quality performers and given how the Prix Go Ahead unraveled, he may yet prove better than his bare form. Since 2004/05, ex-French hurdlers have a fine 19.35% strike rate in the Prestbury, and this figure becomes 41.66% (5/12) when residents of Ditcheat are taken in isolation; two of whom (Sam Winner and Hinterland) were making their UK bow. Team Nicholls comes into the race in fantastic form, and the yard’s fellow French recruit Dixon Cove earned a bloodless victory on her UK debut earlier in the week. As in France, Blueking d’Oroux may find a couple stronger than him by the end of the season, but high expectations for his introduction are difficult to avoid.

Cabrakan bg Milton Harris f13-1-4 (75) 83
Divine Prophet (More Than Ready){1-x}(3.00) US Pedigree
The skill of Milton Harris is covered in Scriptwriter’s profile, although it is also worth a mention that while Cabrakan was not purchased at public auction, the yard has done well with ex-Hannon recruits in the past. From four past horses, two were winners; namely the three-time winner Gulf Punch, and last year’s Wensleydale runner-up Genuflex. Cabrakan ran eleven times for Richard Hannon, and though he would take nine races to get off the mark, he had mostly been running consistently in defeat while racing off marks in the mid-seventies. His win came at Kempton in early July, running off 74 over an extended ten furlongs on slow ground, where he benefitted off the strong pace while getting first run on the other strong finishing closer. His final two starts for the yard were substandard and though finishing strongest of all when a two-and-a-half length fifth in a racing league event at Newcastle, ran no kind of race when last seen bringing up the field in a similar race at Newcastle. Cabrakan is set to be the first runner over jumps for sire Divine Prophet; a high class miler in Australia. Divine Prophet is a decent size at 16.1hh and sons of Choisir (himself a success in the sphere) has a strong winner-to-runner rate of 30.43%. Cabrakan’s damline is bereft of jumpers, with the most pertinent animals to jumping (Turgeon and Lute Antique) showing at 5/5. Cabrakan’s BHA mark puts him the 82nd percentile of all juvenile recruits, his trainer has a 26.09% first time strike rate since 2019 and there is potential ability in his sire. However, given his patchy profile and occasional subpar effort, Cabrakan will likely prefer calmer waters.

Just Another One bg Nigel Hawke f2-0-2 (-) 77 j1-0-1 (-) 105 108
Vocalised (Galileo){1-x}(1.09) 1/2 Leagan Gaeilge 116 1st 3yo Maiden Hurdle, Leopardstown 2019 (Vocalised)
Nigel Hawke’s record with ex-Jim Bolger horses has been a topic covered on numerous occasions in my writing due to the uniquely impressive results. Outside of this dynamic Hawke’s winner-to-runner rate with juvenile hurdles stands at 9.09% while ex-Bolger juveniles have one of 20%. Nevertheless, of the thirteen who have moved from Coolcullen to Thorne Farm eight found the winners’ enclosure. What makes this arrangement all the more intriguing is that it constitutes part a journey which ultimately leads to the Keri Brion and the American jumps programme; as trodden by the likes of Historic Heart, Boulette, Theocrat and Peat Moss. This season’s class began with I Have A Voice (a fair third behind Tuddenham Green at Chepstow before winning at Southwell), and following on his hooves is Just Another One. Gelded in December and leaving Bolger’s to join Hawke in July, Just Another One first saw the racecourse in August for an uncompetitive five-runner Nottingham maiden held over an extended mile on good-to-firm. Drifting from a morning 20/1 to 66/1 at the off, Just Another One spent the early stages of the contest in rear and, at times, somewhat detached from the pack. He made headway to move into second at the distance and while he never stood a chance against the 85 rated long odds-on favourite, he comfortably held the remaining three to the tune of nearly four lengths. A fortnight later, he reappeared in a restricted ten-furlong maiden at Ffos Lass where he fluctuated in the market before starting at 33/1. He was sent into the lead before disputing at an even tempo. Responding to pressure two furlongs out, he was headed a furlong out and carried across the track by the 85 rated winner. Though he rallied, he ultimately went down by a neck and was probably flattered by the proximity. Nevertheless, the fourth and fifth each placed next time out and the form is amongst the stronger represented in this line-up. Sire Vocalised has a weak record in the sphere, with only one of his twenty-four juveniles managing a win from fifty-six outings. Nevertheless, that win did come from Just Another One’s niece/half-sister Leagan Gaeilge, who won her first and only start over hurdles; namely a moderate edition of the three-year-old maiden at Leopardstown’s festive meeting. However, the only others on the damline to try hurdling, full-brother San Aer and half-brother Advena, achieved little in the sphere. Juveniles trained by Nigel Hawke, regardless of where they were previously trained, seldom perform on their hurdling debuts; their first-time strike-rate standing at just 4.23%. As such, Just Another One appeared to fare well on his debut at Market Rasen in a race Hawke won with Nachi Falls in 2016, and a course where he saddled Tiger Roll to make a winning debut in November 2013. Receiving some outside support in the ring, backed from 7/1 to 11/2, Just Another One was held up off the pace and looked in danger of becoming seriously detached when being ridden along the back. His hurdling also left plenty to be desired as he hopped over the second and third, got in very close to the fourth and took his last two in the manner of a tired horse. These latter jumps are curious given that he visually finished strongly to take the runner-up spot on the flat. However, the closing sectionals were glacial compared to the other races on the card over the same trip so it is probable that the race simply disintegrated. Moreover, the form has been done no favours by the winner or the third, who have each ran poorly on subsequent starts. Nigel Hawke did send Repetitio to finish third in this race three years ago, but the yard’s modest second-time-out strike rate of 5.66% is more in keeping with Just Another One’s profile in this company.

Mr Freedom bg Sheena West f7-0-0 (53) 57 j5-3-1 (120) 113 114
Sixties Icon (Sayif){9-c}(0.52) 4/1 Zero 128 1st 2m3½f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (112), Ascot 2007
Juveniles that leave Mick Channon for Sheena West have a better record than those who go elsewhere; and the same can be said for where Sheena West sources her juveniles. Her record for those from outside this connection reads as one winner from fourteen. After Fontwell in early September, those moving from West Ilsley to Falmer have an impressive winner-to-runner rate of sixteen from forty. Prior to Mr Freedom’s victory, seven of these winners were rated 53 or less, which afforded encouragement for the latest to make that journey. Mr Freedom cost just £800 as a yearling, and his best showing on the flat came on the last seven outings; finishing a staying on fourth off 54, over an extended eleven furlongs at Windsor in early-August. His breeding offers mixed messages as the immediate damline is bereft of jumps experience until the winning novice handicapper Zero appears at 4/1, although the fourth dam also has another winner in Kristiansand and her next level of descendants includes the useful sorts London Prize and Categorical. The sire, Sixties Icon, has a solid winner-runner rate of 22.45%, and his strike-rate before October is a healthy 33.33%. Mr Freedom’s hurdling debut came at Fontwell in August, for which he was mercurial in the markets before starting at 6/1. Taking a keen hold while racing at the rear of the field, his jumping, while largely safe, left plenty to be desired as there was not a single hurdle where he was not big, skewed, slow, awkward or any combination of same. It is then to his credit that he was able to make headway into a close enough third, and still look a feasible threat turning for home. This threat was short lived, however, as a lack of pace and fluency saw the leading pair get away just before the last, leaving Mr Freedom to finish a sixteen length third. There was undoubted promise hiding in this performance and the yard’s juvenile strike-rate did jump up from 8.33% to 22.73% between first and second outings. Seventeen days later, all of the above led to Mr Freedom belying the relative lack of enthusiasm in the market to comfortably land 9/1 odds back at the same venue. Taking a firm hold while bringing up the field at a modest tempo, Mr Freedom still showed a tendency to hop and skew at his early flights, but it was much less pronounced than on his debut and he did hurdle quite quickly on occasion. Still bringing up the rear of a tightly bunched field jumping the penultimate flight, he passed a couple of rivals approaching the last where he was within a length of the lead. From there, he had the pace to quickly put the race to bed, winning readily by two, four and seven lengths. Given how the race unfolded, the winning time was far from impressive and little more could be said of the form. The runner-up was an uncompelling debutant and those with experience were below par. His third jumps outing came at Plumpton where he started the steady 10/3 second favourite in a race which looked somewhat stronger on paper. Held up towards the rear, he made minor errors such as skewing somewhat, getting in tight and rather reaching at his hurdles, but apart from being especially awkward at three out, generally went about things efficiently enough. Having made headway on the second circuit, he was caught for toe as the leader pressed on leaving the back, but he was able to reel him in by the last and powered clear up the run in to score by four and twenty-one lengths. Mr Freedom completed his hat trick when returning to Fontwell four weeks ago and though conceding upwards of twelve pounds all round, was still sent off a solid 5/4 favourite. Once again held up towards the rear, Mr Freedom was tight at the majority of his hurdles, but his only real error came when getting too close to the third. Entering the straight, he was within striking distance of the leading pair and travelling much the strongest of the three. His being ridden into the last when upsides the leader was the first time he was asked a question by Marc Goldstein and in response, Mr Freedom needed only pushing on the run-in to score by a comfortable ten lengths. The runner-up subsequently finishing an eleven length fourth off 100 gives a fair indication off the standard of form. Nevertheless, in the context of this season, it warranted a place in the Wensleydale Hurdle for which he opened as favourite in the ring before edging out to 11/4 second favourite at the off. Held up in a close fourth, he slightly skewed on a couple of occasions and was tight at the fourth, but otherwise posted his neatest round of jumping to date. Approaching the penultimate flight, Mr Freedom was close behind the leading pair and travelling as well as either of them. However, he became highly distracted and, having to veer to his left to avoid hitting the wings of the flight, ran out of the race and introduced Marc Goldstein to the ground. That the riderless Mr Freedom rejoined his companion, jumped the last and ran on to pass the post in the lead suggests that there were no misgivings about either racing or hurdling. Sheena West is without a winning juvenile from ten at Cheltenham and Mr Freedom would be below the standard required to win one of these. Nevertheless, the yard did sent Tobago Bay to finish seventh in the 2009 Fred Winter, and Reaction to finish third in the Finesse the following season, so another creditable showing would not be a surprise.

Perseus Way chg Gary Moore f6-2-1 (80) 85
Sea The Stars (Kingmambo){3-n}(1.22) 3/1 Kerrier 0 PU 2m Novices Hurdle, Chepstow 1997
Initially racing in the Godolphin blue, Perseus Way started his career with a win over a mile in heavy ground at Leicester last October. However, he then finished down the field at Newmarket and with testicles removed and cheekpieces applied, he finished just worse than midfield in a Wolverhampton contest won by Emily Upjohn. He was released for 80,000 guineas at the Tattersalls February sale and resumed his career for Owen Burrows in a Sandown handicap off 80. Though poor on his return, he ran with credit on his second start for the yard when second of four in a Newbury handicap that was not run to suit. Perseus Way was last seen at Newbury two months ago, doubling his tally by leading home eighteen rivals over ten furlongs. Held up towards the rear off a solid gallop, he made smooth headway out wide after the turn for home and took up the running at the distance before fending off persistent challenges from either side with good tenacity. Perseus Way makes the switch to hurdling; a sphere for which his pedigree gives mixed signals. Sea The Stars has a healthy winner to runner rate of 33.33% headed by Stars Over The Sea and Starchitect, although the imminent damline is discouraging despite the flat class of uncle Master Of The Seas. The first jumper appers at the third dam, who produced Kerrier to pull up on all three hurdles runs. She also produced the broodmares of unaccomplished maidens Grey Command and Cookie Ring. Nevertheless, more distant relatives do include Bowler Hat (4/4) and Old Gringo (5/3). New trainer Gary Moore is less ambiguous in his talents as he boasts a winner runner rate of 35.91%, and a first-time strike rate of 18.89%. That being said, he could be quite fairly described as an underachiever with his juveniles at Cheltenham; counting just one win from forty at the venue since 2004 (no thanks to Goshen). Notwithstanding, he has had three from eight reach the frame in this contest, including last year’s third Yorksea who, at 33/1, was another son of Sea The Stars making his stable/hurdling debut. There is a lack of hurdling experince to overcome as well as a gulf in flat ability with Scriptwriter. However, in any ordinary contest, Perseus Way would be a most intriguing newcomer on account of his flat accomplishments, likeable attitude and talented trainer and sire. Though it would be a tough ask to win this race on his first start, a big run cannot be entirely ruled out.

Scriptwriter bg Milton Harris f4-1-0 (102) 101 j1-1-0 (-) 110 117
Churchill (Pivotal){6-e}(0.86) 2/1 Persian Warrior 121 1st 2m Novice Hurdle, Stratford 2009
At the 2021 Tattersalls July Sale, Milton Harris walked away with four juvenile hurdlers for sums between fourteen and twenty thousand guineas. Three of these, Aliomaana, Genuflex and Knight Salute, would all find the winners’ enclosure with the latter named – incidentally the least expensive of the bunch – capping off a fantastic campaign with success in the Grade One Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree. Returning to the well at this year’s sale, Mr Harris brought along a much thicker wallet, and left with five potential juveniles; three costing over fifty-five thousand guineas which far exceeds the previous high of twenty-seven thousand guineas exchanged for Pyramid Place in 2020. Since returning from his hiatus, Milton Harris has had tremendous success with relatively inexpensive auction buys, as per their 60% winner-to-runner rate, so it is highly intriguing to see how he fares with pricier types. Scriptwriter, the most expensive of his July sale recruits, came from an Aiden O’Brien whose stock seldom carry their flat ability over hurdles. Since 2004, only two of the sixteen ex-Ballydoyle juveniles (Sardinia and HMS Seahorse – both joining Paul Nolan) would win in the division, with six of the winless juveniles rated 83 or above – including Table Mountain who cost 200,000 guineas in 2010. Scriptwriter’s debut came in a Curragh maiden last August, the same event used to introduce Wichita and Circus Maximus. He was the mount of Ryan Moore and started the shorter price of two Ballydoyle newcomers at 4/1. He raced prominently before fading into a three length sixth inside the final furlong. No classic horses finished ahead of him, but he did split a pair of next time out winners, with the one behind subsequently finishing second in a Listed race at Dundalk. He got off the mark in a mid-September Gowran maiden when the 11/8 favourite. Tracking the leaders, he was outpaced distance and ran green under pressure before running on strongly to lead close home. The form has not been strong with only two winners in behind; the fourth landing a Dundalk maiden, and the sixth taking a Limerick handicap off 73. His two-year-old season ended with a fifth in Newmarket’s Autumn Stakes for which he was sent off at 14/1. Racing in mid division he was green in the dip but kept on for a six length fifth of ten. Winner Coroebus was a class apart from his rivals, but Scriptwriter was able to get within a length and a quarter of Aikjal (won Group Three International), while finishing a neck ahead of Alflaila (won Listed Pomfret Stakes) and another head in front of Lingfield Derby Trial winner, United Nations. Scriptwriter returned in the Ballysax in which he was the Ballydoyle second string. Held up, he made some headway home turn and kept on in the straight without ever looking a threat. The front pair, headed by Piz Badile, were well clear, but Scriptwriter was only a neck behind Dante third Bluegrass and upwards of five lengths ahead of useful handicap sorts. Overall, the level of form shown on the flat by Scriptwriter is perhaps marginally better than his official rating of 102, which itself would put Scriptwriter within the 99.65% percentile of rated juvenile hurdlers. Scriptwriter is representing first-season jumps sire Churchill. Winner of the National and Dewhurst stakes at two before landing the English and Irish Guineas double, Churchill did finish second in the International but was not wholly proven beyond a mile. While he is out of Galileo, the damline is not entirely conducive to stamina, with full-sister Clemmie restricted to eight furlongs, and granddam Airwave being a very fast mare. Nevertheless, Churchill’s full-brother Blenheim Palace stayed at least eleven furlongs, and his height of 16.2hh and overall class will be positives in this endeavour. Scriptwriter’s damline is not outstanding insofar as jumps prospects go, but there is evidence of ability as half-brother Saeer has placed over hurdles, uncle Persian Warrior won a Stratford novice, and the talented Grumeti appears at 4/3. Given the patchy record of those that Coolmore do not keep within the family for hurdling campaigns, enthusiasm for Scriptwriter is somewhat tempered. Nevertheless, his highly credible flat ability, feasible pedigree and the tutelage of a trainer who has done wonders with less fashionable types made Scriptwriter an intriguing prospect for the season. Helping with Churchill’s fine start as a sire of juveniles, Scriptwriter made it three winners from six for the freshman stallion when making a winning debut in a maiden at Sedgefield four weeks ago; the same venue Milton Harris successfully introduced Knight Salute and Genuflex last term. Starting the 11/10 favourite, Scriptwriter raced with enthusiasm while tracking the leader from the outset. He was scruffy at the first and tight over the first couple of flights and though he was better when settling into a rhythm, was slightly awkward again when the tempo increased; including when wandering on the approach to the last and landing on all fours. Notwithstanding, his momentum was enough to get his head in front and while he perhaps made a meal of beating My Brother Jack on the run-in, the manner in which he put a few lengths between himself and his rival, despite veering markedly to his right, suggest that he had a fair amount in hand. The second and third have since given the form a more solid look with the pair each finishing second next time out, and the clock suggests that it was an above average performance for the track. Scriptwriter shaped as though he should learn plenty from the experience, and he has at least a stone in hand of the best any of his rivals produced on the flat. While he will likely need to fulfil that debut promise to challenge Blueking d’Oroux, and the yard could be coming into the race in better form, Scriptwriter has the credentials to give a good go at repeating Knight Salute’s success of twelve months ago.

Super Stars bg Adrian Paul Keatley f11-0-5 (65) 75
Sea The Stars (Holy Roman Emperor){9-f}(2.08) 3/1 Gentleman’s Deal jumps sire
Since 2004/05, Mark Johnston has been the most prolific supplier of flat recruits to the juvenile hurdling division with two-hundred-and=fifteen graduates. Fifty of these would be winners, giving a decent rate of 23.26%. Their improvement rate is a less impressive 29.82%, although this does not preclude lower rated sorts from success with Nordano being rated 66, Raven’s Tower 63, and Helensburgh just 59. Medyaf and Mr Freedom were rated lower than Super Stars on the flat, although their multiple wins does rather negate this fact. Super Stars was initially rated 77 having twice finished second at two, but this mark would slide down to 67 before being arrested by a couple of third placed finishes in September; firstly at Brighton over ten furlongs, then at Hamilton over an additional furlong where he looked a likely winner at the distance before fading late on. Hanging left and folding tamely when last seen at Yarmouth twenty-five days ago, he was since knocked down for 17,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale to join Adrian Keatley; a yard with only one win from thirty four starts in the sphere (Champagne Terri on third outing in weak Doncaster contest, March 2020). Super Stars is also by Sea The Stars, though like Perseus Way, the damline is threadbare. His great granddam was the mighty Sleepytime, and her son, Gentleman’s Deal, is the sole jumping evidence available strictly by virtue of his siring a couple of winners from twenty. Super Stars is another who would be interesting on ordinary company, but has too much to find in most respects to be warranted serious consideration here.

Tuddenham Green bg Alan King f5-0-2 (70) 76 j2-1-1 (120) 112 116
Nathaniel (New Approach){7-f}(0.53) 2/1 Devilment 150 2nd Anniversary Hurdle (G1), Aintree 2015
Since 2004, Alan King has saddled more winning juvenile hurdlers than anybody else in Britain or Ireland, with his tally of 113 including top class animals in Katchit, Walkon, Sceau Royal, Grumeti, Blazing Bailey and Franchoek to name but a few. His record in this particular contest is not without merit as he has landed back-to-back renewals with Katchit and Franchoek in 2006 and 2007, although his best placing from nine since Franchoek came when Cracker Factory finished runner-up in 2018. Alan King’s representative this year is Tuddenham Green; carrying the same colours as Cracker Factory and similarly rated on the flat. Gelded after a lacklustre debut at Haydock last June, he showed enough improvement when sixth and fourth in mile contests at Kempton and Lingfield respectively to warrant an opening BHA mark of 69. Tuddenham Green had been entered in minor juvenile hurdle events during the summer, but connections opted to keep him on the flat for a pair of handicaps. His reappearance came at the end of June for a Haydock handicap over an extended eleven furlongs. Racing keenly towards the rear, he was asked for his effort three furlongs out and though he lacked the turn of foot shown by the front pair (each subsequent winners), he stayed on honestly enough to finish six and a half lengths third of a strung out eight runner field. A month later, he was stepped up to a mile and six for a Sandown handicap, although it did not present the desired stamina test. Held up in touch, Tuddenham Green was keeping tabs on the principals up the straight, but finding himself caught in a pocket, he found himself shuffled to the rear at the distance. Though it would be a stretch to suggest this cost him victory, he did stay on determinedly to keep on for a close third. He was given a ten week break before making an inevitable switch to hurdling for which he is very feasibly bred. Nathaniel has produced a commendable eleven winning juveniles from thirty-three (headed by Zanahiyr, Burning Victory and Navajo Pass), with his progeny boasting a healthy strike rate of 20.69%. His granddam produced the accomplished juvenile hurdler Devilment along with another winner in Nasee, while winning German hurdler Interior Minister appears at 3/2 on the damline. Tuddenham Green’s introduction to hurdling came in the same Chepstow juvenile Alan King won with Katchit, Franchoek and Karezak and gave debuts to Secret Edge and Sceau Royal. Sent off the solid 6/4 favourite of five, he took a keen hold in rear and was tight over the first. Nevertheless, while his enthusiasm continued, he was tidy over the next couple before clipping the fourth. He was caught out by the flattened fifth hurdle, which put him a few lengths behind the field, and he was tight at the first in the straight as well as slightly missing the penultimate flight. Notwithstanding, though still lacking that patent turn of pace, he was staying on strongest of all without straining himself and a clean jump and the last gave him a lead which he extended to nearly three lengths by the line. The winning time compared very favourably against the Free Handicap Hurdle later on the card and the runner-up gave the form a solid look when an arguably unlucky second to another of Alan King’s with a decent looking performance at Kempton. Another Wensleydale expat, Tuddenham Green was sent off the 11/8 favourite for the contest and raced just behind the lead while taking a keen hold. His hurdling was acceptable, although he did give his early flights a bit of air and was awkward at the fifth and eighth. With the frontrunner fading on entering the straight, Tuddenham Green held the lead until being outpaced by Medyaf approaching two out, whereafter he was unable to find an extra gear in finishing a three-length second. Cheltenham’s additional stamina demands may be to Tuddenham Green’s benefit and his prospects of best representing the Wensleydale form are reasonable, although that might not be enough to repel his more promising rivals.

War Correspondent grg Ray Cody f8-0-3 (81) 86 j1-1-0 (-) 105 114
Teofilo (Linamix){1-e}(0.50) 0.5 Tower Bridge 148 3rd Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (G1), Aintree 2018
With a winner runner rate of 9.52% and strike rate of 4.48%, Excelebration was probably better suited to standing in Morocco than siring juvenile hurdlers. Nevertheless, Ray Cody was able to Bell Ex One up to the standard where he would place in the Fred Winter before heading to Australia. This season, he has gone to war with a son of Teofilo; a sire with a much healthier winner to runner rate of 32.61% Trained by Cody on the flat, War Correspondent began his career in May; already gelded and sporting a tongue tie first time. His first three outings earned him a rating of 75 which he carried to third at Dundalk on his handicap debut before filling the same position over an extended twelve furlongs at the Galway Festival from a pound higher; looking quite thoughtful on the latter occasion. Two lesser performances followed in handicap company, and his flat campaign was rounded off with a two and a quarter length third in a Listowel maiden where he got into a barging match at the start and pulled himself up near the finish. Nevertheless, the form was decent with the first and second winning next time, and the sixth going on to land the November Handicap. A switch to hurdles beckoned and along with his useful sire, War Correspondent comes from a rich damline of jumping talent. A half-brother to Tower Bridge, he is a nephew of Noel Meade’s useful novice Walk On Mix, a cousin of Royal Shakespeare, and a 3/3 relative of Detroit City. There are also a couple of French Champion Hurdlers nearby, with World Citizen (1982) appearing at 3/1, and Paiute (1979 & 1980) at 5/2. War Correspondent’s hurdles bow came in the same Punchestown maiden won by Espoir d’Allen, A Wave Of The Sea, Quilixios, and the aforementioned Bell Ex One. Starting the 7/2 third favourite of eleven, War Correspondent raced keenly and was soon tracking the leaders having been held up early on. He was steady at the first and slow away from the third having landed steeply, but jumped soundly in the main (for all that Rachael Blackmore thought he could do better). Making his challenge on the home turn, he was handed the lead by a rival nearly falling at the last. War Correspondent was none too clever either, but he made good use of the momentum and while he looked to be keeping a bit to himself, he was always narrowly holding the runner-up. The fifth was well beaten in an Ayr handicap off 114, and the nine length sixth was a 125/1 shot. Nevertheless, that 125/1 shot proved her placing when third next time at Galway behind the seventh placed finisher, and the winning time was almost identical to that posted by older horses in the 80-109 handicap later on the card. Irish raiders have been plundering races at Cheltenham as of late although Duffle Coat is the only such winner from twelve in this race since 2004, with both Won In The Dark and Guitar Pete each finding one too good. Ray Cody should still have healthy optimism on his first raid to these shores and in Sam Twiston-Davies, he has a rider who won the Fred Winter on Diego du Charmil, and guided the 50/1 Saint Riquier to finish second in this race twelve months ago.

Strong prospects
1. Blueking d’Oroux
Reasonable prospects
2. War Correspondent
3. Scriptwriter
Feasible prospects
4. Perseus Way
5. Tuddenham Green
6. Mr Freedom
7. Medyaf
Moderate prospects
8. Cabrakan
9. Just Another One
Negligible prospects
10. Super Stars

[Bachelors Hall]

HEREFORD 8th NOVEMBER
Race History/Stats
* Though there have been fillies maidens at Hereford during the months of August, September and February, only two took place in November (2007 & 2018)
* Giving Glances was the 3/10 favourite when making a winning hurdling debut for Alan King in the latest running
* Giving Glances only juvenile filly to have won a pattern race after competing at Hereford; (the listed fillies’ race at Doncaster)
* Raffles Gitane placed in Cheltenham’s juvenile fillies’ handicap. Norma Hill and Alikat eventually earned RPRs exceeding 130

Course Info
* Flat, sharp, right-handed track
* Average winning DI 1.34 (+0.07 cf. standard), sharper side of average
* Average winners’ seasonal RPR 108.73 – sixth lowest in UK
* Clear round 95.31% (-0.75% standard) – lower third in UK/IRE
* Clear round rate for newcomers 90.67% – fourth lowest in UK
* Front runners hold discernible advantage
* ex-French hurdlers have 35.71% SR; 6th of 39 UK/IRE courses with 10+ runners
* ex-French hurdlers making their UK debuts as juveniles; 3 wins from 6 (Star de Mohaison, Giorgio Quercus, Raffles Gitane)

Ground & Pace
* Good, good to soft in places, showers overnight, rain in morning
* Couple have raced close but Cianciana only made running on one occasion, La Referi led for 2f on sole start – could be speed test if none take initiative

Cape Helles bf Donald McCain f5-1-0 (73) 77 j1-0-1 (-) 96 101
Australia (Danehill Dancer){6-e}(0.63) 0.5 Evening Hush 129 2nd Finale Juvenile Hurdle (G1), Chepstow 2016
As far as juvenile hurdling damlines are concerned, Cape Helles possesses one of the more appropriate ones for the division. Half-sister Evening Hush finished second in the Grade One Finale Hurdle, cousin Wolf Prince finished second in the Grade One Spring Juvenile Hurdle, and another cousin, Sonoran Sands, won twice in the sphere. Basalt (2/1), Fleeting Moment (2/2), Sayeh (3/1) and Hired Hand (3/1) are other successful closely-related jumpers. Sire Australia also has a solid record in the division with a 22.73% winner-to-runner rate from his first three crops. Cape Helles was unraced as a two-year-old and started her career in a Newcastle maiden over a mile in March. Starting at 20/1, she was unsuited by the trip and pace, but emerged with some credit in failing by a short-head to grab third. The following month at Haydock over the same trip, she ran to a similar level but was unable to take advantage of her prominent position at the head of a muddling pace; fading to finish a nine-length seventh behind Nashwa. Cape Helles broke her duck at the third time of asking in a nine-furlong Carlisle maiden towards the end of May. The subject of strong support throughout the day, starting at 17/2 having been 50/1 during the morning, Cape Helles broke well and while having to be niggled along early on, was able to race in a handy position. Turning for home within striking range, she took the lead off the better travelling favourite approaching the final furlong and stayed on to hold her rival by three-quarters of a length at the line. Though Cape Helles showed a likeable attitude in front, the runner-up almost certainly failed to give best. While the remainder of the field were upwards of five lengths behind, the performance did not warrant a rating of 77 and this played out in her two subsequent outings in handicap company. She was not disgraced at Ripon next time as despite her being beaten seven lengths, raced prominently in a strongly run race from which the first and third won next time out. However, she did finish weakly ten weeks prior to her hurdling debut when an eight length last of five at Doncaster in a twelve furlong fillies’ contest. Cape Helles spent her flat career with Donald McCain, and became the twelfth such horse to go juvenile hurdling; among which she is the third highest rated behind Navajo Pass (85) and Goobinator (82). Three of the previous eleven won during their juvenile campaigns (the two aforementioned along with the 63 rated Ormesher) and all three would also do so at the first time of asking. All told, she had a promising profile ahead of her hurdling debut at Market Rasen forty-five days ago. Based on the yard’s record with self-trained hurdling newcomers, the ten week absence ought not have been a major concern; even if that record improves with race fitness. Cape Helles had plenty going for her on pedigree and was not harshly treated in what was a modest renewal of the Class 2 contest. Furthermore, Donald McCain’s record with juvenile newcomers at Market Rasen stood at two wins and three placings from eleven and with the yard absolutely flying at the time, a good showing would have come as no surprise. The market echoed these sentiments as she was backed from an opening show of 7/2 to 15/8 at the off. However, her performance was a rather disappointing one. Tracking the leading pair off a solid tempo, Cape Helles was the last one to hang onto the winner leaving the back, and was just within a length passing the three furlong pole before beginning to struggle; ultimately faltering on the run-in to lose second place and finish nearly nine lengths behind the winner. She travelled comfortably enough and though slow at the second and close at the fourth, put in a reasonable round of jumping. The winner has since been bitterly disappointing on her two subsequent outings, and the time does little to suggest that the race was any better than average. Coming into this race with disappointing efforts to her name, finishing weakly on each occasion, Cape Helles has questions to answer. However, the potential pace set up of this race does afford her profile some respite.

Cianciana chf Brian Ellison f15-2-4 (67) 73 j1-0-1 (-) 98 105
Cityscape (Three Valleys){1-w}(1.00) 2/1 Duke Of Bronte 125 1st 2m3½f Novices’ Hurdle, Doncaster 2022
Breeding
* Cityscape 0/12 WR, 0/29 SR, 2/6 33.3% IMP
* Three Valleys 1/4 WR, 2/2 IMP
* Family of Boreas (3/1), niece of winning jumpers Duke Of Bronte and Taws, placed jumper Mandatum 3/1
Trainer
* Brian Ellison 30.43% WR
* Self-trained recruits rated 62+ 17.65% SR first time out, 21.43% SR second time out
Horse
* 15 races on flat, starting over 5f last June
* Off the mark on fifth attempt in Newcastle nursery last December over 1m off 52
* Runner up on four of next seven outings, including on turf in 1m2f handicaps at Nottingham and Newmarket off 59
* Doubled tally when landing Newcastle 1m2f handicap off 62, responding well for pressure to win by 1½l
* Unsuited by slow pace at Redcar and outclassed under overweight in racing league final flat start.
* Minimum trip no concern, settles when solid pace, can wander but responds to pressure
* Made hurdling debut at Sedgefield three weeks ago in maiden won by yard with newcomer in 2019
* Steady 7/1 4th fav of 10, started in midfield but jumping errors cost her ground; hopping, skewing and going to right
* Stayed on past beaten horses straight to finish 5l third, somewhat flattered by proximity to Scriptwriter (rated 102 on flat) and My Brother Jack (runner-up either side)
* Should have learned and may do better going right handed

Dixon Cove bf Paul Nicholls j3-0-3 (65.0) 120 121+
Earl Of Tinsdal (Dansili){19-b}(0.82) 2/1 The Giant Bolster 168 3rd Cheltenham Gold Cup (G1), Cheltenham 2014
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/dixon-cove
Profile from prospects piece
Since 2004/05, Paul Nicholls has had 189 juvenile hurdlers under his care, coming from a vast array of sources. Six were fillies who gained hurdling experience in France, with five of those winning at least once during their initial campaigns; including Malaya – landed the 2017 Wensleydale and finished second in the Adonis, R de Rien Sivola (2nd 2008 Prestbury), Pepite de Soleil (2nd 2008 Finale), and Bold Fire (2nd 2006 Victor Ludorum). The latest Ditcheat requisition, Dixon Cove, will be their first from Philippe Peltier; a trainer whose six exported juveniles resulted in three winners headed by Balder Succes, and Tout est Permis. Dixon Cove has an interesting, if peculiar, pedigree for a juvenile hurdler. Sire Earl of Tinsdal was a three time Group One winner over middle distances in Germany and Italy. Like his sire, Black Sam Bellamy, Earl of Tinsdal stands at an imposing 16.2hh and also has form on heavy ground. A nephew of placed hurdlers in Central Europe, Earl of Tinsdal has had few representatives under either code, although he did get his first jumps winner in July when Roxalagu won at Bad Harzburg. On the distaff side, Dixon Cove’s most compelling relative is her uncle The Giant Bolster; twice placed in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and another son of Black Sam Bellamy. Prior to this year, Shanandoa (2/1), who took low grade handicaps at Stratford and Uttoxeter, was the only other winning jumper although there have been two more three-year-olds this term in Moon Dawn (2/2) and Winteriscoming (3/2). Dixon Cove herself has yet to find the winners enclosure, but has reached the frame at Auteuil in all three outings to date. Her first racecourse appearance came in March for the Prix Auricula; a debutants contest which has been used as a launchpad for the likes of Tarla, Pepite Rose, Gitane du Berlais, Elimay and Stormy Ireland. Sent off amongst the outsiders in a field of twelve, Dixon Cove was held up in rear and her early jumping was marked by big and cautious leaps. She became more fluent when taking a midfield position along the back; a position she still held turning for home. Little ground was made on the leaders between the final two hurdles, although the field did dissipate around her and despite an ungainly style under pressure, was able to snatch a near five-length third at the line. With none of the first five home starting at single-digit prices, the form did not look strong at the time and while the sixth won at Dieppe next time, the winner finished some twenty-five lengths behind Gala Marceau on her second outing. Dixon Cove’s second outing came in the Prix Champoreau; a conditions race in which the aforementioned Malaya finished second in 2017. Starting the 2/1 second favourite of six, Dixon Cove was once again held up towards the rear and though more confident over the first three flights, she was steady and close at the fourth. While big when reaching at the next and landing steeply, the pace was such that she was vying for second place along the back and was within a length of the lead over the penultimate flight. While she managed to get the measure of the pacesetter after the last, she never managed to hit the front herself; although with the rail to help, she did regain second place on the run-in and finished within a length of the winner. Dixon Cove’s final outing came in the third week of May for the Groupe III Prix Sagan. The focal point of the fillies’ Spring season, the Sagan has been contested by useful exports in Tarla, Sway, Kotkikova and Elimay, as well as Cambaceres winners Chimere du Berlais and Tanais du Chenet, and Roll On Has who would take the Alain du Breil. This year’s renewal was not a vintage one; as per the absences of Gala Marceau and Panther du Berlais along with the fact that the only previous winner in the line-up did so in a claimer. Sent off the 3/1 favourite of eight, Dixon Cove took up her customary position towards the rear and made minor errors along the way such as hopping and being slow away from several flights. She was in touch rounding the final bend but a slow jump to her right at two out exacerbated her lack of pace. Another awkward jump at the last left her treading water, although she did manage to reclaim an eleven length third close to the line. The first two since upheld the form to a degree in the listed Prix d’Iena; finishing second and third while giving weight to the winner. Much like her new stable companion Blueking d’Oroux, Dixon Cove brings French form which, while good, places her behind some of the best in the division. There is nothing preventing her from mixing it in decent company and the shedding of her maiden tag in an ordinary race looks assured. Notwithstanding, based on her pedigree and all racecourse evidence to date, Dixon Cove would more likely be one with the long-term in mind.
Update
The Prix Sagan form is not leading the way in France, but it still has a place at the head table of the fillies’ division. The front pair (Villa Rica and Angela du Berlais) filled the first two in the Groupe III Prix Magne, while fourth placed Rose Secrete won a minor chase at Segre. As per recent stable tours, Dixon Cove is being aimed for the Listed Fillies’ Juvenile at Aintree (a race in which the yard’s Malaya finished second) and she would have much the strongest chance of the home contingent based on everything seen to date. Nicholls has won 21 from 52 in past fortnight while Harry Cobden has a 30.7% SR with juveniles. Pace has potential to be a concern but holds a significant class advantage.

Highland Lass chf Richard Price f4-0-0 (10) 0
Highland Reel (Dubawi){4-k}(0.79) 2/1 Crazy Queen 89 5th 2m 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Wexford 2016
Breeding
* First crop sire Highland Reel has had two winners from six to date. Dubawi has a 33.33% WR as both a sire (5/15) and a damsire (7/21)
* Despite strong sirelines, damline is moderate. Sole nearby jumper (above) unplaced in 12 starts.
Trainer
* Richard Price has 1/11 WR, In The Crowd (ex-Alan Swinbank) winning twice in 2012/13 (Warwick 2nd start, Wincanton Handicap on 4th)
* 3/5 (60%) improved on flat rating as juveniles
Horse
* Cost 1,000gns Tatts Autumn 2021
* Failed to record RPR or TF figure in four starts since debut in May, beaten 35, 96, 54 and 37 lengths

La Referi chf Nigel Hawke f1-0-0 (-) 29
Pride Of Dubai (Teofilo){5-f}(1.15) 2/1 Novis Adventus 136 1st 2m4f Handicap Hurdle (119), Worcester 2018
Breeding
* Sire Pride Of Dubai dual G1 winning 2yo in Australia. Sole juvenile to date (Lifetime Legend) runner-up in modest Wetherby contest.
* Grandsire Street Cry 1/3 WR (Estinaad 2013)
* Teofilo 8/32 (25%) WR as damsire, 32.61% WR as sire
* Uncle Novis Adventus three time winning hurdler (started at 5yo), cousin New Reality made winning debut as juvenile for Hawke having left Bolger
Trainer
* Nigel Hawke 18.31% WR, 30% IMP
* 4.29% SR, 90% clear round first time out
Source
* Jim Bolger 25.84% WR, 38.18% IMP
* Bolger>Hawke 7/13 53.85% WR including 50 rated Peat Moss, 50% improvement, 2/13 SR first time (New Reality fortunate winner)
Horse
* Sole flat outing late August, 1m Chepstow novice stakes, wore tongue tie
* Green, led for 2f, weakened at distance, beaten 19l

Outstanding prospects
1. Dixon Cove
Reasonable prospects
.
Feasible prospects
2. Cianciana
3. Cape Helles
Moderate prospects
4. La Referi
Negligible prospects
5. Highland Lass

[Bachelors Hall]

Thanks Ian :)

If nothing else, I think I have finally shaken that Hill Station silks carrying monkey off my back, which feels better than I would like to admit!

Oddly enough, I have no problems with being called a “genius”, or even a “god”. But “tipster” does make me uncomfortable. Still, you retrained yourself from mentioning the £98 trifecta, which is appreciated :)

MUSSELBURGH – 2nd NOVEMBER
Unless stated, all figures relate to British and Irish juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05
For context, the average strike rate across all juveniles is 9.51%, winner-runner 19.37%, improvement rate 37.08%, clear round 96.12%

Race History/Stats
* Ran as maiden since 2019, juvenile held on card since 2012, no race 2017
* Average seasonal winning RPR 115.39 (-2.93 cf. standard)
* Most notable winners – Sir Chauvelin (2015: 3.Scottish Triumph, 3. Summit), Collingham (2021: 2.Chatteris Fen), both owned by Jimmy Fyffe; not represented this year.
* Winning DI 0.86 much lower than course average
* Six of nine runnings won by debutants (SR 18.75%), all of whom rated 76+ on flat

Course Info
* Flat, sharp, right-handed track
* Average winning DI 1.33 (+0.06 cf. standard) – much lower in this contest
* Clear round 96.06% (+0.20% standard) – Very average
* Clear round rate for newcomers 96.95% – top ten of fair hurdling tracks relative to experienced horses
* Front runners hold discernible advantage

Ground & Pace
* Good to soft, chance of rain overnight, heavy rain forecast by midday.
* My Brother Jack made running on both hurdles starts to date and has no obvious challenger for lead

My Brother Jack bg Ollie Pears f9-1-0 (53) 60 j2-0-2 (111) 108 115
Decorated Knight (Sri Pekan){19}(0.71) 2/2 Zeloso 90 1st 2m3½f Handicap Hurdle (85), Hereford 2002
Breeding
* Decorated Knight first crop. DI 0.73, Height 1.65m (good), 3×1.G1 inc Irish Champion Stakes.
* 22/32 Galileo sires produced winning juveniles, 27.46% WR as grandsire
* Sri Pekan 2/25 WR as damsire. Family of Acropolis (2/2), M-Lolshan (3/1) and Vinnie Roe (3/3)
* Close relatives achieved little over hurdles, cousins Head Gardner and Zeloso won at minor level
* Half-brother “Dubs” currently lives in Greater Manchester and is a very silly boy; doing his legs in after jumping out of his field and going on a mad gallop. Thankfully his bandages are off now, and observers noted that if he had something to jump, he probably would have won a race or two…
Trainer & Jockey
* Prior to My Brother Jack, Ollie Pears had 6 juvs race 9 times without any collecting prizemoney; although none had fallen or unseated
* Brian Harding 9/48 18.75% SR on juvs at Musselburgh; inc. from front on Fiveandtwenty (x3), Project Bluebook, Forth Bridge and Rutherglen. Prominent on others.
Horse
* Gelded prior to debut and winless in 8 prior to winning 5-runner 1m6f Wolverhampton Handicap off 52
* 25/1>50/1 morning, started 33/1 on hurdling debut in Sedgefield maiden late September. Somewhat warm beforehand
* Raced enthusiastically from front without pulling too hard, disputed along back, readily left behind by winner approaching last but battled gamely for second
* Jumped quick and neat with only minor errors at third and seventh
* Winner produced arguably strongest form seen to date in France next time, third previously second to subsequent valuable US winner, fourth easy winner at Wetherby nto
* Returned for another Sedgefield maiden 17 days ago, starting steady 9/4 second favourite
* Made running once again, setting stronger pace than on debut
* Headed approaching last, did not go down without fight. 102 flat-rated perhaps had bit more than 2¼l in hand
* Winning pace and time creditable compared to maiden hurdle on card (2nd rated 114)

Noble Anthem bg Archie Watson f6-2-0 (86) 92
Starspangledbanner (Montjeu){13-b}(0.60) 2/1 Changing The Guard 148 1st 2m½f Handicap Chase (137), Newton Abbot 2014
Breeding
* Starspangledbanner 4/11 36.36% WR, 57.14% IMP set to increase
* Montjeu 2nd only to Galileo for winners and leader for wins as sire. 24.32% WR as damsire
* Family of Spinning Queen (2/1 – 1.Sun Chariot), Nephew of Changing The Guard (above) and Shannon Springs (1.3mMdH). 2/2 Braganza, 3/1 Monasteroris
Trainer
* Predominantly a flat trainer (won Champions Sprint with Glen Shiel), 17/55 all jumps runners (30.91% SR)
* Sole juvenile, Alazwar, was Shadwell dispersal who won junior bumper on debut before 3rd in maiden hurdle on only start
* Latest two hurdlers were winners (Fakenham and Carlisle last week)
* Former inmates have 3/10 WR in juvenile hurdles, Noble Anthem highest rated by 5lbs
Horse
* Green when 9th on debut in Wood Ditton.
* Still green but ultimately won with bit to spare second time out in 1m Thirsk novice; 3rd, 5th, 7th and 9th won within next three starts
* Not disgraced when 4th of 14 behind Eldar Eldarov at Newcastle, then won 5-runner 1m2f (gf) Ayr handicap in early July off 85; edged slightly under pressure but still battled well against experienced rival
* Was kicking off at start before running no race in first time cheekpieces back at Ayr later that month
* Gelded and better behaved when last seen at Kempton five weeks ago but still ran flat in finishing a 10l last of 13
* Withdrawn from Tattersalls Autumn HIT sale last week

Soleil de Cannes Iain Jardine f1-0-0 TF41 j2-0-1 89 92+
Quick Martin (Alhaarth){1-l}(0.60) 0.5 Carlain 67.0 3rd Prix Ferdinand Dufaure (G1,4yC), Auteuil 2012
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/soleil-de-cannes
Profile written for prospects piece
Making his racecourse bow on the all-weather at Chantilly in February, Soleil de Cannes was slow away and lacked the pace to pass any rival before finishing tailed off. Three weeks later, he took in the division’s curtain raiser, the Prix d’Essai des Poulains, at Compiegne. His starting price of 77/1 reflected his form and profile, although his pedigree is more befitting of a jumper. First crop sire Quick Martin’s career highlight was a second in a four-year-old conditions hurdle at Auteuil, although he is a half-brother to smart sorts Oklahoma Seven and Sierra Nevada. In one of breeding’s oddities, the distaff side is actually more compelling as Soleil de Cannes’ half-brother, Carlain, finished third in the Champion Chase for four-year-olds while uncle Honneur Au Roi won listed chase for four-year-olds at Enghien. In his Compiegne bow, Soleil de Cannes finishing a near forty length eleventh was in keeping with his starting price. Racing just behind the leaders, he was slow and awkward at times and while he was still in contention leaving the back, was badly outpaced when the race developed before being allowed to come home in his own time. Gelded afterwards, he returned to Compiegne at the end of March in calmer waters for a claiming hurdle. A 14/1 shot in a field of seven, he was held up in touch but still given to big and slow jumps throughout his round. He found himself outpaced once again but managed to improve from sixth to second between the final two flights before finishing four lengths clear of the remainder without posing the remotest threat to the winner. After the race, Soleil de Cannes was claimed for €23,506 by Tobias Jones to join an as yet unnamed British trainer. Those brought out of French jumps claimers have a perfectly respectable winner to runner rate of 25.64%, and former trainer David Windrif has been responsible for four exported juveniles including the winner Un Guet Apens. Soleil de Cannes’ form is difficult to rate much higher than 90 at this juncture, although the claimer was given something of a boost when the fourth placed Jeu Tentant won a Fontainebleau claimer next time. There may be a moderate enough race for him during the early season, although he shapes as though likely to eventually do better in handicaps over further.
Update
* Since joined Iain Jardine for £25,000 via Charlie Mann at the Goffs UK Spring sale
* Form looking better than at time, with winner Jereviendrai winning a listed chase, 4th placed Jeu Tentant adding Auteuil and Compiegne claimers to his tally, and the 5th also winning a couple of races
* Iain Jardine 3/21 14.29% WR, 1/20 SR first time out. Yet to saddle ex-French recruit in division
* Only trainer in line-up with winning juv at Musselburgh; albeit at rate of 1 from 19
* Three wins and two places from last seven runners on flat

Ancora bf Ewan Whillans Unraced
Amaron (Law Society){20-c}(2.27) 1/0 Ajesha 2x1st 4500m Listed Chase, Baden-Baden 2007
Breeding
* First UK/IRE juvenile for Amaron, 1/4 WR with French 3yo jumpers; Piste d’Etoiles won minor race at Jarnac
* 1.64m (decent height) DI 2.00, 9×1.between 7 and 9f including G1 at San Siro. Cousin of 5 winning jumpers including Luxstar (3.Robert Lejeune)
* Shamardal 21.54% WR as grandsire
* Law Society 8/34 23.53% WR as damsire. Dam won pair of listed chases in Germany
* Niece of Apollo Star (multiple group winner over mile in Germany), jumpers Aratan and Areal appear at 4/2 on damline
Trainer
* First juvenile for Ewan Whillans, who took over from father Alistair. Alistair 0/14 WR in division, 100% CR
* Ewan without winner for 32 days
Horse
* Unraced, cost £12,000 at Goffs Yorton Sale in 2021

Silver Vision grf Stuart Coltherd f8-0-0 (50) 64 j2-0-0 (-) 78 75
Muhaarar (Pivotal){8-d}(1.11) 0.5 Cubomania 148 2nd Dan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase (A,139), Fairyhouse 2019
Breeding
* Muhaarar 2/10 WR, 16.67% imp
* Half-sister to useful Cubomaina; effective on all ground up to 2m4f
* Other jumps relatives inc. (2/2) Coldstream, (2/3) Battling Bessie, (3/3) Brazil, (4/2) Diakali, (4/3) Divapour
Source
* ex-Roger Varian 31.25% WR, none with juv RPR exceeding 120, 25% imp
Trainer
* 1/6 16.67% WR; winner Dequall awarded Carlisle handicap running off 97
Horse
* Made debut last Autumn for Roger Varian, finished within 3l of winner at Kempton and Wolverhampton in February (rated 63 for hcp debut at latter)
* Beat one rival from twenty and beaten 26,12 and 33l for Jackie Stephen
* Both hurdling starts came at Sedgefield behind My Brother Jack.
* First-time hood, 66>100/1, held up in touch, began to lose ground leaving back, beaten 31l
* Untidy jump then hampered at second, saddle slipped, pulled up

Strong prospects
1. My Brother Jack
Reasonable prospects
2. Soleil de Cannes
3. Noble Anthem
Feasible prospects
.
Moderate/Negligible prospects
4. Silver Vision
5. Ancora

[Bachelors Hall]

Unless stated, all figures relate to British and Irish juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05
For context, the average strike rate across all juveniles is 9.51%, winner-runner 19.37%, improvement rate 37.08%

Race History/Stats
* Ran each year since at least 2004 (18 runnings)
* Average winning RPR 123.14 (4.82 cf. standard)
* Notable winners –Chic Name (2015: 2.Finale), We Have A Dream (2017: 1.Anniversary), Allmankind (2019: 3.Triumph), Adagio (2020: 2.Triumph), In This World (2021: Beat Fil d’Or in France)
* Notable participants – Galahad Quest (4.2019: 1.Finesse), Biscar Two (3.2004: 2.Finale), Cobra de Mai (5.2015: 153 rated chaser)
* Odds on favs r7w6
* Stamina demands more pronounced than in other races at Warwick – winning Dis 0.78 md, 1.30 mn

Course Info
* Flat, sharp, left-handed track
* Average winning DI 1.37 (+0.10 cf. standard) – much lower in this contest
* Clear round 95.35% (-0.71% standard) – lower third in GB/IRE
* Front runners hold discernible advantage

Ground & Pace
* Good, good to soft in places with heavy rain forecast overnight. Light showers before racing.
* No habitual pacemakers but a few have raced prominently

Charles St bg Fergal O’Brien f9-1-7 (79) 87
Outstrip (Fantastic Light){5-g}(1.12) 2/2 Stag Horn 135 1st Leamington Novices’ Hurdle (G2), Warwick 2022
Breeding
* Outstrip 0-3 WR GB/IRE, 0-4 WR France, Exceed And Excel 11.59% WR as grandsire
* Fantastic Light 28% WR, 28.57% Improvement rate as damsire
* Cousin Stag Horn won G2 novice hurdle at this venue, another cousin Saint Riquier won a 2m3f HcH at Warwick after placing 2nd in Prestbury Hurdle
* Other relatives on damline – 2/2 Star Rider (1.2m3f NvHM) 3/2 Fashion Mix (1.3yH) 3/1 Fragrant Mix 58% WR as jumps sire
* First ex-George Boughey to go juvenile hurdling
Trainer
* Fergal O’Brien 29.17% WR, 41.67% (5-12) WR since 2020/21, Two winners from as many races this season.
* First time strike rate 18.18%, four of last ten newcomers won first time
* Charles St set to be trainer’s highest rated GB/IRE flat recruit (dual winner Volkovka rated 81 in France)
* Charles St also most expensive at public auction, fetching 50,000gns at Tatts August (winning debutant Naizagai cost 40,000gns)
* Yard in-form, landed double at Hereford on Monday
Horse
* 50,000gns Tatts August
* Made debut in January when second in 10f Lingfield maiden, off mark six days later in Wolverhampton 1m4f maiden – no subsequent winners
* Gelded and given three month break. Runner-up on five of next seven outings, all at around 12f
* Consistently posted performances worthy of mid-80s ratings but shown to hang and flash tail
* Tried in cheekpieces then blinkers last time out. Left off here on first run in 78 days
* Should stay, happy with ground, highest rated but only few pounds in hand

Forward Flight bg Alan King f7-1-1 (74) 82
Declaration Of War (Silver Hawk){9-f}(1.86) 2/2 Tap Tap Boom 136 4th Prix Pierre de Lassus (G3,4yH), Auteuil 2018
Breeding
* Declatation Of War 0-5 WR 0-15 SR, 25% imp
* Silver Hawk 24.24% WR, 20.83% imp as damsire
* Half-brother to Glide Down (2.JvH Mras), cousin of winners Tap Tap Boom (above), Thumbs Up, Turf Trivia 101 36-4-8 (4 jumps wins each) and Dark Equation (1.New York Turf Writers Cup Hurdle)
Trainer
* Alan King 113 winning juveniles since 2004/05 – highest in GB/IRE, 47.88% WR, 50.60 imp
* First time out – 26.07% strike rate. 27.47% self-trained flat recruits, 35.29% (r51-w18) when rated 70+ (1 faller)
* Warwick record; r48-w16-p15, record in this contest r10-w5-p3 (r4-w1-p1 with ex-flat debutants)
* Tom Bellamy 14.10% SR, 100% CR FTO, 3-11 Alan King juvs FTO, all Alan King r491-w65 13.24%
Horse
* Thrice raced at 2yo, beaten no less than 8¾l. Gelded over winter
* Won on return/handicap debut, landing 4 runner Yarmouth mile off 74 – set steady tempo, kept on when challenged. Runner-up 2nd next time, 3rd won 3 starts later
* Beaten 9l, 12½l and 36l next three outings. Given to pulling hard. Different mounting strategies along with hood (left off) employed

Non Stop bg Joe Tizzard f8-1-2 (67) 71
Starspangledbanner (Authorized){23}(0.33) 3/1 Moon Indigo 138 1st 2m3½f Novices’ Chase, Wetherby 2011
Breeding
* Starspangledbanner 30% WR, 57.14% imp, Authorized 27.78% WR as damsire
* 2/1 Arabian Sun, Ride The Lightning, Resplendent Light; all modest maidens, as was cousin Abertillery, 3/1 Moon Indigo (above) closest winner. 3/3 Thorpe
Trainer
* Joe Tizzard’s first juvenile hurdler. Colin Tizzard 37.5% WR, 5-10 WR flat recruits, 0-1 Self trained. r14-w1 FTO, r3-w0 Warwick
Horse
* €26,000 yearling at Goffs Sportsman’s
* Thrice beaten over 7f last Autumn at Chepstow and Kempton (x2), earning BHA of 59. Gelded over winter
* Denied by head on return/hcp debut over Lingfield 7f in May; setting strong pace, headed by fast finisher on line
* Never going at Salisbury over 6f, but off mark in Lingfield 8f Hcp off 62; good pace, prominent on outer, kicked clear home turn, always doing enough to win by ¾l and 1¾l
* Runner-up eventual winner, 3rd placed next time, 4th and 5th multiple subsequent wins
* Off for 53 days, returned with ¾l third of thirteen in Kempton 1m handicap off 66, prominent at solid tempo, kept on but just outpaced final furlong (not slowing down)
* Below par when last seen 69 days ago over same C&D, no obvious excuse and no explanation offered
* Untried beyond mile but racing style and pedigree suggest he should improve for trip. Yard had three winners (all favs) and a second Monday. Plausible pace angle.

Romancero le Dun bg Jane Williams Unraced
Spanish Moon (Fragrant Mix){7}(1.40) 1/0 Uranus Le Dun 61.0 3rd Prix Finot (L), Auteuil 2011
Breeding
* Spanish Moon 44.44% WR in GB/IRE, 10.17% WR in France
* Dam listed placed at 3 in France, 0.5 Falbala le Dun (1.4yH Com), 0.5 Italiaana le Dun (4-0-3), 3/2 Salsaretta (2.de Chambly; 3yHLM, 149 rated chaser), 3/2 Breaken (2.Frascati)
Trainer
* Jane Williams 35.71% WR. 4-11 36.36% WR unraced
* Nick & Jane Williams 16-56 28.57% WR unraced inc. Reve de Sivola, Me Voici, Urbain de Sivola, Siruh du Lac & Erick Le Rouge.
* Unraced newcomers from yard 7.55% FTO strike rate (2.49% for all trainers)
* Jane Williams at Warwick r4-w2-p1
Horse
* Unraced, €3,000 not sold at Arqana Summer Sale 2021

Vaxholm bg J S Moore f21-3-3 (48) 61
Estidhkaar (Yeats){1-k}(0.78) 3/1 Ptarmigan Lodge 111 1st 2m4f Handicap Hurdle, Navan 1996
Breeding
* Estidhkaar 0-9 WR, 0-27 SR, Yeats 0-1 as damsire, 3-23 (13.04%) WR sire
* Closest winning relative Ptarmigan Lodge (above), distant relatives Le Moss (5/1), Our Conor (5/4), Kempes (5/5)
Trainer
* Stan Moore 0-19 WR, 0-37 SR
Horse
* Won three from five on AW between October and January, the last being a 10f Lingfield handicap off 57.
* Nine runs since without a place
* Can run freely. Plenty to find with all, even on best form

Victory bg Alan King f9-1-3 (77) 81
Churchill (Champs Elysees){9-e}(0.91) 0.5 I Doubt That 90 10th 2m Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Navan 2022
Breeding
* Churchill first crop, 16.2hh, 2 winners from 5 to date (The Churchill Lad, Scriptwriter)
* Family of Zafonic (3/2), close jumps relatives of little note, Maze Runner (3/4) useful juvenile, Nearby (4/3) winning novice
Trainer
* Alan King 113 winning juveniles since 2004/05 – highest in GB/IRE, 47.88% WR, 50.60 imp
* First time out – 26.07% strike rate. 27.47% self-trained flat recruits, 35.29% (r51-w18) when rated 70+ (1 faller)
* Warwick record; r48-w16-p15, record in this contest r10-w5-p3 (r4-w1-p1 with ex-flat debutants)
* Tom Cannon 10.4% SR, 96.9% CR FTO, 6-33 juvs Alan King FTO, all Alan King 802-108 13.47%
Horse
* 57,000gns Tatts December Foals
* Beaten no less than 6l on first four starts at 2yo
* Improved keeping on 3rd in 1m Kempton nursery before closing season with win in similar contest off 70
* Narrowly failed to win at Doncaster 1m2f off 76 on reappearance
* Matched effort on penultimate outing at Windsor when rallying to reclaim 2½l 2nd over 1m3½f – form not working out
* Three month break, never better than midfield when last seen at Kempton 41 days ago
* Should stay, no real temperament concerns, possible preference for good ground

Lemon Ice chf Sean Curran f6-0-1 (61) 69 j1-0-0 (-) 61 57
Mastercraftsman (Galileo){8-f}(0.60) 2/2 Next Bend 122 1st 2m Handicap Hurdle (104), Navan 2017
Breeding
* Mastercraftsman 25-93 26.88% WR (3rd highest number of winners since 2004/05 behind Galileo and Montjeu)
* Cousin a fair winner (above), half-siblings Crecerelle and Abstract winless in 16 combined over jumps. 4/4 Cerberus
Trainer
* Sean Curran 3-23 13.04% WR | 0-22 FTO, 2-13 15.38% 2TO
Source
* ex-Johnny Murtaghs 1-18 5.56% WR
Horse
* Sole instance of finishing within 9l of winner came on penultimate flat outing when ½l 3rd of 10 in 1m5f Down Royal handicap off 63
* Only runner in field with hurdling experience, which came in Stratford Maiden four weeks ago
* 14/1 (28/1 at one point in morning), in rear, in trouble halfway and detached shortly afterwards, stayed on for 43l third behind two subsequent winners
* Hopped at a couple but not offensively bad at jumping. Still needs considerable improvement here.

Strong prospects
1. Non Stop
Reasonable prospects
2. Charles St
3. Victory
4. Romancero le Dun
Feasible prospects
5. Forward Flight
Moderate prospects
6. Lemon Ice
Negligible prospects
7. Vaxholm

[Bachelors Hall]

An intriguing race indeed. Definitely provides some respite from the field size saga…

Some refreshing and experimenting ahead…

To any new readers. A brief welcome and thank you very much for your curiosity. I research and write about juvenile hurdlers because it is a most underappreciated area of the sport. Underappreciated largely because of the dearth of information readily available to the racing public. To this end, while subscribing to the Historian’s process of using imperfect and patchy evidence to make sense of events, I attempt to lessen some of the mystery within the division. While I predominantly write previews and the likes for myself, I take great delight whenever they help the reader develop a greater appreciation of the sphere.

Nevertheless, I must make it abundantly clear that I AM NOT A TIPSTER. NOTHING I EVER WRITE HAS BEEN A TIP, NOR WILL IT EVER BE. I write solely to inform, never to advise. I do have a prospects list at the bottom, but this is solely to ascertain the strength of my analysis (to see if I am extrapolating the right kind of information from my data). If you ignored this unqualified maxim last season, you would have been a very successful punter. If you have been ignoring it this season, you would be cursing my very existence. To be clear, I very seldom bet on these things so would be appalled to suggest anybody bets on the basis of my work. If you use what you read to inform your punting then good luck and be sensible – but understand that it is entirely of your own volition.

To seasoned readers. You will know that my output is not as consistent as it has been in the past and can often be sporadic. This is because I have considerably less spare time than I did a year and a bit ago. Much as I would love to do long form previews and reviews for every race, the time and energy required does not exist. So, based on feedback I have been receiving for a while, my processes will evolve so that more races can be covered. For the sake of my time (and probably the sanity of many readers), ordinary races will be covered more in note-form. Notwithstanding, because I still prefer long-form, previews for the bigger and more notable races will be gratuitous in their verbosity. If I am feeling generous, I might add tl;dr’s to these because I do want as many people as possible to enjoy my work.

The Wetherby previews offered some indication that this would be coming, and the preview for the upcoming contest at Huntingdon will be a tender step towards brevity. As I have profiles ready written for the Kempton pair, this will be something of a hybrid.

Hope you enjoy and keep in mind that questions, feedback and suggestions are always welcome.

HUNTINGDON – 30th October – Preview
Race History/Stats
* 16 runnings since 2004
* Average winning RPR 116..25 (-2.07 cf. standard)
* Notable participants – Starluck (1st 2008 – 3rd Anniversary, 4th Triumph, future RPR 160), Nyanza (1st 2014 – 1st Aintree Fillies’ Hurdle)
* Newcomers have 14.10% strike rate, experienced horses 6.67% SR
* Previous winners r8-w3-5p

Course Info
* Flat, right handed, galloping track
* Average Winning DI 1.33 (+0.06 cf. standard)
* Clear round 96.38% (+0.32%)

Ground & Pace
* Good, watering to maintain, cloudy with light breeze, slim chance of rain
* Couple have raced prominently but neither are confirmed frontrunners.
* More emphasis on speed rather than stamina

Triumph Odds
Age of Sail 100/1

Admiralty House chg Alan King f7-0-4 (79) 86 j1-1-0 (-) 111 111
Sea The Stars (Tobougg){5-h}(1.00) 2/1 Enchanted Forest 133 3rd 2m Handicap Hurdle (120), Punchestown 2013
Since 2004, Alan King has saddled more winning juvenile hurdlers than anybody else in Britain or Ireland, with his tally of 113 including top class animals in Katchit, Walkon, Grumeti, Blazing Bailey and Franchoek to name but a few. He boasts a 30.95% strike rate with juveniles at Huntingdon since 2004, with three winners from seven (McVicar, Nyanza and Twilight Twist) coming in this contest. When it comes to all Alan King self-trained newcomers rated 70 and above, his record of 18 wins from 50 runs is both healthy and substantial. Admiralty House is such a horse, having earned a BHA mark of 79 during a seven race flat career at the yard. Costing 55,000 guineas at a two-year-old breeze-up, and gelded before seeing the track, Admiralty House finished third in a nine furlong Wolverhampton novice stakes in January before going one better at Chelmsford over ten furlongs the following month; getting within a length of King Edward VII runner-up Grand Alliance. Given a near four month break, he returned to finish a good second in a Salisbury maiden over a mile and a half, but pulled too hard for his own good at Newbury and, with the hood applied, at Wolverhampton. His penultimate start saw him post a career best in a ten furlong handicap at Newbury in mid-August. Racing off 76, he took a keen hold once again while held up off a strong pace, but finished strongly within the distance and got to within a head of Cracksman’s brother at the line. However, he reverted to type at Yarmouth on his latest flat start in mid-September when finishing last of ten at Yarmouth having pulled hard and raced awkwardly under pressure. A nephew of Dutch Art (who has a 4.08% strike rate 8.33% improvement rate as a juvenile sire), the damline of Admiralty House consists of maiden jumpers. Half-brother Combarro twice finished runner-up in claiming hurdles as a four-year-old while uncle Enchanted Forest did place in a handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, but was still a twenty-three race maiden. Nevertheless, sire Sea The Stars is a positive attribute as per his winner to runner rate of eleven from thirty-three which includes Stars Over The Sea, Starchitect and Admiralty House himself. His progeny’s strike rate does improve form 9.38% first-time to 42.86% by the third run (but drops to 0% on the fourth run, highlighting the limitations of statistics) which is another tenuous positive for Admiralty House. That winning hurdles debut came at Kempton a fortnight ago in a contest won by the yard five times since 2008; including with Mcvicar who followed up in this contest in 2012). A drifter from 2/1 in the morning to 7/2 at the off, Admiralty House took a keen hold in the rear of the field until pulling himself into a prominent position after the third. Without settling fully, he went into a definite lead on the side section of the track before engaging in a prolonged battle up the straight with the reopposing Age Of Sail. Age Of Sail appeared to be edging ahead on the approach to the final flight, but a clumsy jump returned the initiative to Admiralty House who forged a couple of lengths clear on the run-in. In terms of jumping, Admiralty House tended to go to his right (a trait which caused a heft collision at the fourth) and was fairly awkward at the second, the fourth and the last, but he was also neat at times so should be able to improve in that regard. Admiralty House will now have to concede Age Of Sail who was arguably in a position to beat him at Kempton, and his keen going nature could be a concern. Notwithstanding, the course characteristics and pace composition can help mitigate that negative, and the greater scope for improvement is a positive in Admiralty House’s bid to maintain his yard’s decent record in this contest.

Fils de Roi bg Fergal O’Brien j6-1-2 (60.0/132) 113 116
Saint des Saints (Poliglote){31}(0.67) 2/1 Worldbest 72.0 3rd Grand Prix d’Automne (G1), Auteuil 2009
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/fils-de-roi
* French recruit bought out of claimer for €25,056
* Initially trained by Yannick Fouin – 52.63% WR with exports including Ptit Zig, Style de Garde, Riviere d’Etel and Domtaline.
* Winning claimers from French jumps races have 5-14 (35.71%) WR, 4-6 (66.67%) WR when costing over €25,000. First time strike-rate of 3-14, (all trained by David Pipe).
* Fergal O’Brien 26.09% WR, 14.29% SR first time out. Yet to saddle an ex-French jumps recruit but did get dual winner Volkovka out of a French flat claimer. Junior NH winner Tintintin also French sourced.
* Saints des Saints 30.77% WR inc. Monmiral, Le Rocher, Fusil Raffles and 9 others with Juv RPRs 135+ (wouldn’t have been claimers in France)
* Poliglote 33.33% WR as damsire inc. Goshen, Qualando and Magistrato.
* Distaff relatives inc. – 2/1 Worldbest, 0.5 Tengara (2nd 3yo H Enghien), 2/1 Orcantara (3rd Bournosienne), 2/2 Porticello, 2/2 Invicter (2nd Cambaceres), 2/2 Pindare (2nd Des Drags)
* Six races in France, winning once and placing twice.
* Made debut in early June with second to far superior horse. Badly outpaced second time out.
* Can be forgiven chase debut when landing in path of rival at four out, resulting in backside ending up on floor. Quite remarkable that he completed the course. Obstacle was similar to the water jump at Cheltenham’s XC course.
* Dropped to claiming company. Third over 3000m, raced prominently, outpaced, then regained 12l third on run-in.
* Well clear when somehow fell two out in Clairefontaine claiming chase.
* Landed Auteuil 3500m soft ground claimer last time by fifteen lengths. Almost unseated at fifth but otherwise jumped fine. Winning time poor, form worth rating in mid 110s.
* Capable recruit but will almost certainly need trip in due course. Conditions unlikely to suit.

Age Of Sail bg Gary Moore f6-0-2 (76) 83 j2-0-2 (116) 113
Frankel (Pivotal){22-b}(1.06) 0.5 Polarisation 114 2nd Juvenile Hurdle, Sandown 2015
Gelded shortly after his sole outing for Godolphin, where he beat one home in a Goodwood maiden last September, Age Of Sail’s next public appearance came at the Tattersalls February Sale where he fetched 60,000 guineas and joined Joseph Parr. In the space of eighty-two days, running over distances between eight and twelve furlongs, Age Of Sail failed to breach the front two in five outings. Nevertheless, he was never beaten any more than three and a half lengths and ended his stint with a BHA mark of 76. Twice placing fourth in a Windsor maiden and Southwell novice, he ran on well to finish third off 77 on his handicap debut over ten furlongs at Sandown, and might have finished closer when squeezed out in the closing stages at Leicester over an extra two furlongs. His flat stint was capped with a solid enough fifth of fourteen at Newbury and his attentions were turned to hurdles as he moved to Gary Moore’s yard. Another successful trainer in the sphere, Moore has a winner-to-runner rate of 35.91% while sire Frankel has one of 31.25%. A nephew of Lammtarra, jumpers are thin on Age Of Sail’s damline as while half-brother Polarisation finished second on his sole run in the sphere, the nearest winners stem from the fourth dam in King Of The Picts (4/5), Noland (4/5) and Ruzzini (4/6). Introduced at Chepstow last Saturday, Age Of Sail was backed from 5/2 in the morning to 13/8 second-favourite at the off and spent much of the contest held up in fourth of the five runners. Taking closer order at the top of the straight, he briefly held a narrow lead approaching two out, and disputed until his being slow away from the last gave the initiative, and ultimately a near three-length victory to Alan King’s Tuddenham Green (since runner-up in the Wensleydale). His round was reasonable for a debutant, but there was still room for improvement as he was slow away from the same flight on the first circuit, stumbled on landing after the fourth and tight at the next two. The winning time was comparable to the “Free Handicap Hurdle” later on the card (which was more steadily ran) and the form is about as strong as anything seen prior to the Wensleydale in what has been a weak British division thus far. Age Of Sail made his second hurdling appearance at Kempton a fortnight ago where he was sent off the 10/11 favourite. Sweated up before the race, he made the early running at a modest tempo before being headed at the far bend. Turning for home, he went alongside Admiralty House and after a protracted battle, appeared to just edge ahead before stumbling on landing; leaving his rival to eventually win by two lengths. Gary Moore has a record of six wins from forty-one (14.63% SR) at Huntingdon, and won this race in 2004 when it was a maiden contest. The seven pound pull with Admiralty House will be beneficial and Age Of Sail’s Chepstow second is perhaps the stronger form. However, this track may better suit his rival and the application of a visor will probably have to be effective in bringing out improvement in his overall jumping.

Briar Bank bg Toby Lawes f3-0-0 (54) 51 j1-0-0 (-) 72 76
Garswood (Verglas){9-b}(3.00) 1/0 Push Me 104 1st 2m½f Handicap Hurdle (91), Perth 2014
* Little form in three outings on the flat, including a pair of 10 furlong contests at Chelmsford and Sandown in May and June.
* First juvenile hurdler for Toby Lawes.
* Dam won modest Perth handicap. Half-brother and uncle were poor maidens, Classic Fly (1 win from 34) appears at 3/2, Larkwing at 5/3
* Made it 0 winners from 7 for sire Garswood on hurdling debut at Fontwell 30 days ago.
* 66/1, mid division, left behind on turn for home, one paced, won battle for 23¾l fourth after rival blundered at last.

Midnight Train bg Nicky Henderson f10-2-1 (61) 69
Iffraaj (Medicean){1-k}(1.67) 2/2 Ifiandra 56.0 3rd 3400m 4yo Conditions Hurdle, Cagnes-Sur-Mer 2018
* Rated 54 after three runs over 7f at two, beaten no less than 9¼l on each start
* Started 3yo campaign with narrow victories in handicaps; Windsor 8f, Nottingham 10f (well positioned in slow run race)
* Couple of 4th place finishes over 10f at Lingfield and Sandown sandwiched between modest efforts, including on heavy.
* Last seen finishing second at start of month in Wolverhampton handicap off 60. Last turning in, navigated traffic and stayed on well to finish ½l second.
* Should stay minimum trip, no real attitude concerns and possibly a bit better than official mark.
* Nicky Henderson has outstanding WR of 64.57% since 2004/05, first-time strike rate of 44.44%.
* Only other Clive Cox > Nicky Henderson juvenile was Little Dutch Girl (rare juv winner for sire).
* Many horses have joined Henderson having raced for owner Spence on the flat;- (*list not exhaustive*)
*** Eradicate – Mark Johnton – OR106 – Won on debut before winning two Swinton Hurdles, BHA high of 143
*** Cape Express – Michael Jarvis – OR97 – Won on second start over hurdles, four in total, BHA 136
*** Monetary Fund – Gerard Butler – OR83 – Won on debut as juvenile, BHA 130
*** Hurricane Higgins – Mark Johnston – OR103 – Won on sole hurdle start
*** Courtesy Call – Mark Johnston – OR86 – 4th Adonis on debut, won third start, BHA 123
*** Hassle – Clive Cox – OR95 – joined as 5yo, BHA 125
*** Nordic Quest – Gerard Butler – OR82 – thrice placed and won on fourth start, BHA 128
*** Grey Blue – Mark Johnston – OR 84 – 3rd debut juvenile, BHA 115
*** Recognition – Roger Varian – OR 70 – Won on debut as juvenile, BHA 110
*** Soldier In Action – Mark Johnston – OR105 – Won second start as juvenile, BHA 141
*** Fraser Island – Mark Johnston – OR 83 – Won debut as juvenile, BHA 135
*** Progressive – Roger Varian – OR 78 – Won on debut as juvenile, BHA 121
* Nicky Henderson 7-14 (50%) WR for flat recruits officially rated 70 and lower. Said recruits have 46.15% first-time strike rate.
* Record with juveniles at Huntingdon; r19 w8 p7 (42.11% SR)
* Henderson newcomers at Huntingdon since 2004 – Reaching Out 1st this race in 2005. Monetary Fund 1st, One Lucky Lady 2nd, Divin Bere 1st.
* Iffraaj 14.71% WR, winners include Cerberus, Doubly Clever and Battle Angel. WR rate increases to 23.53% when DI is 1.67 or lower
* Iffraaj improvement rate of 40.91% second highest in field. 54.55% when DI <1.68
* Family of Love (3/2) and Frankel (8/6). Cousin placed over hurdles at four in France. 3/1 Jumeriah Liberty (modest hurdle winner), 3/2 Birds Of Prey (fairly useful triple winner)

Strong prospects
1. Midnight Train
Reasonable prospects
2. Admiralty House
3. Age Of Sail
Feasible prospects
4. Fils de Roi
Moderate prospects
.
Negligible prospects
5. Briar Bank

[Bachelors Hall]

Thank you :)

I wasn’t “gone” per se, more busy/tired. I was planning on doing the Fakenham hurdle but just didn’t have the energy on the day… Which is annoying as I actually “fancied” La Breille. Such is life…

I have thrown something together for the junior NH hurdle

Wetherby (Junior Hurdle) – 28th October – Diatribe/Preview Notes

[Bachelors Hall]

The Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle is an integral feature of the early season juvenile calendar, although its history is best described as “varied”. This defining feature has been omnipresent since its inception in 1986 when it superseded the Thorp Arch Novices’ Hurdle; a juvenile event which was invariably split into two divisions. The first renewal saw Qurrat Al Ain lead home Cumbrian Nijo with the pair becoming ordinary handicappers. The next two were then taken by Royal Illusion (won the Victor Ludorum and Anniversary hurdles later that season) and Royal Derbi (won the Punchestown Champion 4YO before eventually finishing second in the 1993 Champion Hurdle). Afforded Grade 2 status in 1990, but relegated to listed class in 2001 the pattern continued unabated with the likes of Swift Sword, Desert Mist, Aviation, Calomeria and Nicky Nutjob emerging victorious in a race that has had some very notable participants. Silver Wedge, Bellator, Kerawi and Quazar did well in earlier renewals while more recently, Grandouet, Sametegal and Sceau Royal trod the Wetherby turf with last year seeing Porticello adding his name to the useful column. The most notable participants this century each finished runner-up in the contest. In 2006, Katchit was beaten by Degas Art before landing the Prestbury, Finesse, Triumph and Anniversary ahead of becoming Champion Hurdler. 2011 runner-up Countrywide Flame filled the same position in the Finale and Anniversary Hurdles as well as winning that season’s Triumph.

The extent to which this season’s participants might follow the aforementioned remains to be seen, and it is difficult to assess at this juncture. Only four runners are set to face the starter and the absences of the two Milton Harris entries and French recruits for Paul Nicholls and Rebecca Menzies make the contest much more winnable. Notwithstanding, those who do line up are all winners over hurdles that, without threatening to take the division by storm, would not be out of place in any decent renewal. The flat form brought into the race is average at best with none able to score under that code. Notwithstanding, all four are by strong sires in the sphere, represent successful trainers and have shown themselves to be able jumpers of hurdles.

A flat, left-handed, galloping track, the West Yorkshire venue’s average winning DIs of 1.20 median, 1.33 mean are close to standard, although these are some twenty points lower than those of the average participant. Furthermore, the clear round rate of 94.63% is one of the lowest in the country and the completion rate of 82.10% also suggests Wetherby offers a good test of a young hurdler’s aptitude. Only one of the participants has made the running in the past, but with him being a course and distance winner, the impetus to repeat those tactics should ensure an honest pace. The going is currently described as good to soft, good in places, and there is a chance of light showers during the morning.

Triumph Odds
Tuddenham Green 50/1

Medyaf bg Dan Skelton f4-0-0 (64) 64 j1-1-0 (-) 102 106
Sea The Moon (Rock Of Gibraltar){13-e}(0.78) 3/2 Poet 127 1st 2m½f Maiden Hurdle, Newbury 2012
Juvenile hurdlers who start their careers with John Gosden have a winner to runner rate of 18.10% which is close enough to average. However, only Pied Piper recorded an RPR exceeding 140 during their first campaigns over hurdles and their improvement rate stands at just 21.74%. A half-brother to a Group 2 winner who cost 110,000 guineas as a yearling, Medyaf did not live up to expectations on the flat as he finished nearer last than first on all four flat outings – although his final BHA mark of 64 meant that he left Clarehaven Stables on a lower foundation than most of his ilk. His first two outings last Autumn, at Nottingham and Newcastle, were not without promise as he shaped as though he would improve with age. However, the application of blinkers for the second half of his flat career cultivated a regression in both form and attitude, and he was allowed to leave Gosden for just 9,000 guineas at the Tattersalls February Sale. There, he was purchased by Craig and Laura Buckingham and he would join a Dan Skelton yard with a fine record in the division. His winner to runner rate of 38.20% and improvement rate of 49.44% are above average and his clear round rate of 98.53% is the highest of any trainer with fifty or more juveniles to his name. Medyaf’s pedigree also gives cause for optimism for his new vocation as sire Sea The Moon has a fine winner runner rate of 38.10% headed by The Tide Turns, Tritonic and another Skelton inmate in Allmankind. Jumpers do not immediately appear on the damline, although the third dam produced the dams of useful winner Poet and High Stratos with the talented French chaser Sans Commission appearing at 5/2. Medyaf made his hurdling bow at the start of the month in a Stratford maiden Skelton used to introduce Too Friendly to make a winning debut last season. Opening at 10/3 in the morning, he had drifted out to 9/1 before being sent off the 7/1 fourth favourite of seven. Tracking the leader from the outset, Medyaf was understandably fresh on his first racecourse appearance in nearly eight months, although did not pull particularly hard. He did miss the second, got in close to the fourth and was skewed over the next, but his round of jumping was otherwise decent for a newcomer. The front pair were a long way clear by the time they turned into the straight, and though by no means a certain winner approaching the last, he did appear to be travelling better of the two when La Breille’s fall left him a distance clear. The race had lost much of its depth when the easy going Caesar’s Palace was pulled up quickly after two out, but the form received a boost when La Breille gained compensation in a fillies’ event at Fakenham on Wednesday. Few would be considering the Triumph Hurdle at this juncture, but in a race of unexposed horses of comparable ability, Medyaf is not readily dismissed; particularly given Skelton’s record in the race reads as a winner (Langer Dan in 2019) and two thirds (King d’Argent in 2018 and Cabot Cliffs in 2020 for the same owners) from three runners. However, one concern could be that Medyaf was a tricky ride on the flat, and his being left a long way clear at Stratford deprived observers of the means to assess his resolve under pressure.

Mr Freedom bg Sheena West f7-0-0 (53) 57 j4-3-1 (120) 114 112
Sixties Icon (Sayif){9-c}(0.52) 4/1 Zero 128 1st 2m3½f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (112), Ascot 2007
Juveniles that leave Mick Channon for Sheena West have a better record than those who go elsewhere; and the same can be said for where Sheena West sources her juveniles. Her record for those from outside this connection reads as one winner from fourteen. After Fontwell in early September, those moving from West Ilsley to Falmer have an impressive winner-to-runner rate of sixteen from forty. Prior to Mr Freedom’s victory, seven of these winners were rated 53 or less, which afforded encouragement for the latest to make that journey. Mr Freedom cost just £800 as a yearling, and after being beaten eleven lengths at Sandown on his debut last June, was beaten nineteen and fifteen lengths at Kempton and Salisbury before being put away for the winter. In May came his return in a Bath mile handicap off 59 for which he attracted outside support; starting at 10/1 having opened at twice the price in the morning. Pulling hard in the early stages, he struggled for room in the final couple of furlongs and though he only managed an eighth place finish, he was not given a vigorous ride in posting a new career best. He failed to build on that degree of promise in a similar contest at Ripon next time and while traffic issues were something of a feature, he had no such excuses when making no show whatsoever at Windsor next time. Given a two month break, a change of scenery, and a step up to a mile-and-a-half, Mr Freedom ran a considerably better race when returning to Windsor at the start of the month. Settling better on the prominent side of midfield, he was unable to accelerate with the principle as the race developed, but still ran on for a three-and-a-quarter length fourth of ten. His breeding offers mixed messages as the immediate damline is bereft of jumps experience until the winning novice handicapper Zero appears at 4/1, although the fourth dam also has another winner in Kristiansand and her next level of descendants includes the useful sorts London Prize and Categorical. The sire, Sixties Icon, has a solid winner-runner rate of 22.45%, and his strike-rate before October is a healthy 33.33%. Mr Freedom’s hurdling debut came at Fontwell in August, for which he was mercurial in the markets before starting at 6/1. Taking a keen hold while racing at the rear of the field, his jumping, while largely safe, left plenty to be desired as there was not a single hurdle where he was not big, skewed, slow, awkward or any combination of same. It is then to his credit that he was able to make headway into a close enough third, and still look a feasible threat turning for home. This threat was short lived, however, as a lack of pace and fluency saw the leading pair get away just before the last, leaving Mr Freedom to finish a sixteen length third. There was undoubted promise hiding in this performance and the yard’s juvenile strike-rate did jump up from 8.33% to 22.73% between first and second outings. Seventeen days later, all of the above led to Mr Freedom belying the relative lack of enthusiasm in the market to comfortably land 9/1 odds back at the same venue. Taking a firm hold while bringing up the field at a modest tempo, Mr Freedom still showed a tendency to hop and skew at his early flights, but it was much less pronounced than on his debut and he did hurdle quite quickly on occasion. Still bringing up the rear of a tightly bunched field jumping the penultimate flight, he passed a couple of rivals approaching the last where he was within a length of the lead. From there, he had the pace to quickly put the race to bed, winning readily by two, four and seven lengths. Given how the race unfolded, the winning time was far from impressive and little more could be said of the form. The runner-up was an uncompelling debutant and those with experience were below par. His third jumps outing came at Plumpton where he started the steady 10/3 second favourite in a race which looked somewhat stronger on paper. Held up towards the rear, he made minor errors such as skewing somewhat, getting in tight and rather reaching at his hurdles, but apart from being especially awkward at three out, generally went about things efficiently enough. Having made headway on the second circuit, he was caught for toe as the leader pressed on leaving the back, but he was able to reel him in by the last and powered clear up the run in to score by four and twenty-one lengths. Mr Freedom completed his hat trick when returning to Fontwell four weeks ago and though conceding upwards of twelve pounds all round, was still sent off a solid 5/4 favourite. Once again held up towards the rear, Mr Freedom was tight at the majority of his hurdles, but his only real error came when getting too close to the third. Entering the straight, he was within striking distance of the leading pair and travelling much the strongest of the three. His being ridden into the last when upsides the leader was the first time he was asked a question by Marc Goldstein and in response, Mr Freedom needed only pushing on the run-in to score by a comfortable ten lengths. The runner-up subsequently finishing an eleven length fourth off 100 gives a fair indication off the standard of form. Though Mr Freedom would be the most exposed runner in the line-up and would be vulnerable to improvers, he is undoubtedly an admirable sort representing a yard which sent Mohanad to finish third in the 2009 renewal of this race (one of the lesser editions), so a respectable showing would not be unexpected.

Tuddenham Green bg Alan King f5-0-2 (70) 76 j1-1-0 (-) 111 116
Nathaniel (New Approach){7-f}(0.53) 2/1 Devilment 150 2nd Anniversary Hurdle (G1), Aintree 2015
Since 2004, Alan King has saddled more winning juvenile hurdlers than anybody else in Britain or Ireland, with his tally of 113 including top class animals in Katchit, Walkon, Sceau Royal, Grumeti, Blazing Bailey and Franchoek to name but a few. Though his strike rate with juveniles at Wetherby is merely a fair 12%, he has saddled Secret Edge (trained by himself on the flat) and Cracker Factory to win this contest as well as sending the aforementioned Katchit and Sceau Royal to finish runner-up. His representative this year is Tuddenham Green; the highest rated flat recruit to the tune of five pounds. Gelded after a lacklustre debut at Haydock last June, he showed enough improvement when sixth and fourth in mile contests at Kempton and Lingfield respectively to warrant an opening BHA mark of 69. Tuddenham Green had been entered in minor juvenile hurdle events during the summer, but connections opted to keep him on the flat for a pair of handicaps. His reappearance came at the end of June for a Haydock handicap over an extended eleven furlongs. Racing keenly towards the rear, he was asked for his effort three furlongs out and though he lacked the turn of foot shown by the front pair (each subsequent winners), he stayed on honestly enough to finish six and a half lengths third of a strung out eight runner field. A month later, he was stepped up to a mile and six for a Sandown handicap, although it did not present the desired stamina test. Held up in touch, Tuddenham Green was keeping tabs on the principals up the straight, but finding himself caught in a pocket, he found himself shuffled to the rear at the distance. Though it would be a stretch to suggest this cost him victory, he did stay on determinedly to keep on for a close third. He was given a ten week break before making an inevitable switch to hurdling for which he is very feasibly bred. Nathaniel has produced a commendable eleven winning juveniles from thirty-three (headed by Zanahiyr, Burning Victory and Navajo Pass), with his progeny boasting a healthy strike rate of 20.69%. His granddam produced the accomplished juvenile hurdler Devilment along with another winner in Nasee, while winning German hurdler Interior Minister appears at 3/2 on the damline. Tuddenham Green’s introduction to hurdling came in the same Chepstow juvenile Alan King won with Katchit, Franchoek and Karezak and gave debuts to Secret Edge and Sceau Royal. Sent off the solid 6/4 favourite of five, he took a keen hold in rear and was tight over the first. Nevertheless, while his enthusiasm continued, he was tidy over the next couple before clipping the fourth. He was caught out by the flattened fifth hurdle, which put him a few lengths behind the field, and he was tight at the first in the straight as well as slightly missing the penultimate flight. Notwithstanding, though still lacking that patent turn of pace, he was staying on strongest of all without straining himself and a clean jump and the last gave him a lead which he extended to nearly three lengths by the line. The winning time compared very favourably against the Free Handicap Hurdle later on the card and the runner-up gave the form a solid look when an arguably unlucky second to another of Alan King’s with a decent looking performance at Kempton. Tuddenham Green is the only runner currently quoted for the Triumph Hurdle, although the 50/1 is probably a fair reflection of his prospects at this juncture. That being said, while this field is comprised of unexposed sorts of reasonable promise, Tuddenham Green has the most substantial profile as per his flat ability, form achieved, trainer, pedigree and scope for further improvement.

Vintage Valley grg Donald McCain f3-0-0 (65) 66 j2-1-0 (-) 95 104
Mastercraftsman (Araafa){1-i}(1.50) 2/2 Genuflex 106 2nd Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (L), Wetherby 2021
In 2011, Hollow Tree left Andrew Balding to join Donald McCain for who he won three races as a juvenile including the Grade One Finale Hurdle. Since then, two other juveniles failed to score having made that journey, although Vintage Valley was recently able to break that trend. A thrice raced maiden on the flat, Vintage Valley shaped with some promise on his debut at Haydock in April when running green and lacking the pace to better fifth in a steadily run mile and a half contest. He failed to show on his return to that venue the following month, but probably matched the form of his debut when fifth of eight at Chepstow back in June. After fetching £32,000 at the Tattersalls Ascot Sale in July, Vintage Valley made his hurdling debut at Sedgefield last month in the same contest McCain introduced Genever Dragon to make a winning debut two years ago. On breeding, there is plenty of encouragement in the pedigree for the game. Mastercraftsman is one of the most successful sires of juveniles and along with Genuflex (runner-up in this race last year), he is also a cousin of Gendarme and Good Prince, as well as a nephew of Ginistrelli. Starting at 10/1, he was much easier in the market of the two Fyffe runners, although the other was rated eighteen pounds superior on the flat and already had a run over hurdles to his name. Leading early before getting a lead in the straight first time round, he disputed going out onto the second circuit before a tight jump at the last in the back saw him lose ground. Well behind by the time they turned for home, Vintage Valley merely got the better of a scrap with a 100/1 outsider for a twenty-nine length fourth. Apart from tight jumps at the first, and the same flight on the second circuit, he posted a fair round of jumping; albeit with a tendency to go towards his left. The bare form of Vintage Valley’s debut is modest, but he shaped as though he ought to improve in due course. Making his second outing over this course and distance sixteen days ago, Vintage Valley was able to get off the mark. On paper, the race had looked like a match between an intriguing Milton Harris newcomer in Highland Frolic, and the nine hurdles at the course. Nevertheless, as the former drifted markedly, Vintage Valley’s price contracted from a morning show of 13/2 to 11/4 at the off. In the event, Vintage Valley set a solid pace, jumped very neatly save for hitting the fifth, had all bar Highland Frolic in trouble before reaching the end of the back and had shaken off that rival by the turn for home. Vintage Valley was kept up to his work and came home seventeen lengths to the good. The winning time was decent enough and taking Vintage Valley in isolation, his performance was visually very good. However, it is worth noting that despite the fact there were no fallers in the race, the standard of jumping was lamentable with all five rivals making errors at virtually every hurdle. Another factor to consider is that since 2004, thirty-two horses have come out of that race to contest the Wensleydale, yet only Aviation (eighth in the 2005 running of the “trial”) went on to win a decidedly poor renewal of the race. The three winners who would finish runner-up in the listed race did so without achieving RPRs exceeding 107. Vintage Valley still has several positives in his profile such as his breeding, his in-form trainer, the fact that he has the second highest rating on the flat, and most pertinently, the likelihood that he will enjoy another uncontested lead over this course and distance. However, the closing sectional last time suggests a considerable expenditure of energy was made, the bare form is probably the weakest on balance and though the pater McCain won this race in 2004 with Calomeria, young Donald is without a winner in six attempts.

Strong prospects
1. Tuddenham Green
Reasonable /Feasible prospects
2. Mr Freedom
3. Vintage Valley
4. Medyaf
Moderate prospects
.
Negligible prospects
.

[Bachelors Hall]

Up until 1996, Kempton’s first juvenile hurdle of the season had been known as the Riverdale – a name which survived from the sixties and predated the Ferry Boat Chase, Charisma Gold Cup and Captain Quist Hurdles. Though a contest with more ordinary renewals than good, it did launch the jumps careers of Broadsword, Barnbrook Again, Silver Wedge and Bring Sweets during the eighties and nineties, while Combermere and Runway Romance were other useful graduates during the period. In 2002, the finish was fought between hurdling newcomers Spectroscope and Nas Na Riogh; who would go on to win the Triumph and Finale Hurdles respectively, and last year, the Anniversary winner, Knight Salute, saw off Scottish Triumph hero Impulsive One. In between these editions, the race was also contested by the likes of Chief Yeoman, Trouble At Bay, Noble Request, Quel Destin, Cerium, Katies Tutor and All Set To Go. This year’s edition looks fair-to-middling at this juncture as while five of the seven are maidens, four have flat ratings higher than the average winner of the contest. The standard is set by Chepstow runner-up, Age Of Sail, who ran creditably in what was probably the best British juvenile seen to date, although Alan King has won this race five times and he introduces a 79 rated newcomer. Kempton is a flat, right handed circuit with a reputation of being a speedy track. However, it’s winning DIs of 1.00 median, 1.22 mean are low compared to other courses (sixth lowest in Britain) as well as the beaten runners at the venue. Though stamina would theoretically become more of an issue on a testing surface, the figures for this contest (invariably ran on good ground) are consistent with the standard for the course. Clear round and completion rates are on the fairer side of average and though newcomers are at a slight disadvantage in this particular contest, their overall record at the venue shows little discernible difference. The going at Kempton is currently described as good, good to firm in places, and while watering will continue throughout Saturday, there is no rain forecast before post time. With only two instances of frontrunning in the field, the pace may not be especially strong.

Admiralty House chg Alan King f7-0-4 (79) 86
Sea The Stars (Tobougg){5-h}(1.00) 2/1 Enchanted Forest 133 3rd 2m Handicap Hurdle (120), Punchestown 2013
Since 2004, Alan King has saddled more winning juvenile hurdlers than anybody else in Britain or Ireland, with his tally of 112 including top class animals in Katchit, Walkon, Grumeti, Blazing Bailey and Franchoek to name but a few. He boasts a 30% strike rate with juveniles at Kempton since 2004, with five winners coming in this contest. The yard’s record with debutants is two wins from five, those trained on the flat by himself is one from four, and those trained by himself making their hurdling debuts are zero from three. Notwithstanding, when it comes to all Alan King self-trained newcomers rated 70 and above, his record of 17 wins from 49 runs is both healthy and substantial. Admiralty House is such a horse, having earned a BHA mark of 79 during a seven race flat career at the yard. Costing 55,000 guineas at a two-year-old breeze-up, and gelded before seeing the track, Admiralty House finished third in a nine furlong Wolverhampton novice stakes in January before going one better at Chelmsford over ten furlongs the following month; getting within a length of King Edward VII runner-up Grand Alliance. Given a near four month break, he returned to finish a good second in a Salisbury maiden over a mile and a half, but pulled too hard for his own good at Newbury and, with the hood applied, at Wolverhampton. His penultimate start saw him post a career best in a ten furlong handicap at Newbury in mid-August. Racing off 76, he took a keen hold once again while held up off a strong pace, but finished strongly within the distance and got to within a head of Cracksman’s brother at the line. However, he reverted to type at Yarmouth when last seen a month ago when finishing last of ten at Yarmouth having pulled hard and raced awkwardly under pressure. A nephew of Dutch Art (who has a 4.08% strike rate 8.33% improvement rate as a juvenile sire), the damline of Admiralty House consists of maiden jumpers. Half-brother Combarro twice finished runner-up in claiming hurdles as a four-year-old while uncle Enchanted Forest did place in a handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, but was still a twenty-three race maiden. Nevertheless, sire Sea The Stars is a positive attribute as per his winner to runner rate of 31.25% which includes Stars Over The Sea and Starchitect – the former landing this race on his hurdles debut in 2014. His progeny’s strike rate does improve form 9.38% first-time to 42.86% by the third run, but drops to 0% on the fourth run, highlighting the limitations of statistics. The yard and sire afford Admiralty House plenty of respect, although his inconsistency on the flat suggests that he might benefit from experience.

Age Of Sail bg Gary Moore f6-0-2 (76) 83 j1-0-1 (-) 108 113
Frankel (Pivotal){22-b}(1.06) 0.5 Polarisation 114 2nd Juvenile Hurdle, Sandown 2015
Gelded shortly after his sole outing for Godolphin, where he beat one home in a Goodwood maiden last September, Age Of Sail’s next public appearance came at the Tattersalls February Sale where he fetched 60,000 guineas and joined Joseph Parr. In the space of eighty-two days, running over distances between eight and twelve furlongs, Age Of Sail failed to breach the front two in five outings. Nevertheless, he was never beaten any more than three and a half lengths and ended his stint with a BHA mark of 76. Twice placing fourth in a Windsor maiden and Southwell novice, he ran on well to finish third off 77 on his handicap debut over ten furlongs at Sandown, and might have finished closer when squeezed out in the closing stages at Leicester over an extra two furlongs. His flat stint was capped with a solid enough fifth of fourteen at Newbury and his attentions were turned to hurdles as he moved to Gary Moore’s yard. Another successful trainer in the sphere, Moore has a winner-to-runner rate of 35.91% while sire Frankel has one of 31.25%. A nephew of Lammtarra, jumpers are thin on Age Of Sail’s damline as while half-brother Polarisation finished second on his sole run in the sphere, the nearest winners stem from the fourth dam in King Of The Picts (4/5), Noland (4/5) and Ruzzini (4/6). Introduced at Chepstow last Saturday, Age Of Sail was backed from 5/2 in the morning to 13/8 second-favourite at the off and spent much of the contest held up in fourth of the five runners. Taking closer order at the top of the straight, he briefly held a narrow lead approaching two out, and disputed until his being slow away from the last gave the initiative, and ultimately a near three-length victory to Alan King’s Tuddenham Green. His round was reasonable for a debutant, but there was still room for improvement as he was slow away from the same flight on the first circuit, stumbled on landing after the fourth and tight at the next two. The winning time was comparable to the “Free Handicap Hurdle” later on the card (which was more steadily ran) and the form is about as strong as anything seen in what has been a weak British division thus far. Age Of Sail sets the standard on the basis of his Chepstow outing and likely experience, although the record of Gary Moore juveniles at Kempton is a curious one as only one from fifty-two has won since 2004. That being said, he has also had three of the last four runners-up in the Adonis Hurdle.

Lark Lane bg Richenda Ford f17-0-3 (45) 56
Sixties Icon (Rip Van Winkle){1-n}(0.68) 3/1 Visibility 138 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Leicester 2003
With seventeen flat outings to his name, Lark Lane is by far the most experienced runner in this field. His official rating of 45 is also the lowest. The closest he came to winning was when headed near the line in a Leicester mile handicap off 46, although he has also placed third in selling company including when last seen at Ripon over ten furlongs at the end of August. Set to be the second juvenile trained by Richenda Ford, Lark Lane was formerly with Mick Channon whose ex-inmates have a 25.17% winner runner rate which drops to 19.64% when Sheena West juveniles are eliminated. Sixties Icon has a solid 22.45% winner to runner rate while the third dam produced winning juvenile Visibility as well as the dam of winning jumpers Vorashann and Vaziani. Lark Lane does not have the worst pedigree for the sphere, but his exposed flat ability and occasionally suspect attitude negate interest at this juncture.

Tartarus bg Alexandra Dunn f3-0-2 (71) 71
Ruler Of The World (Mark Of Esteem){14-b}(0.48) 2/2 Atalan 1st 3900m Premio Piero e Franco Richard Novices Chase (G3), Merano 2017
With only three runs to his name, Tartarus is the least expereinced runner in this field. He is also coming into the race off the longest break having not been seen since April. His debut came in a ten furlong Lingfield maiden in March where, having been supported from 7/1 to 3/1 raced close up but ran very green under pressure before finishing a length and three quarter second, nearly four lengths clear of the remainder. Tartarus ran a similar race to a similar level over the same course and distance at the end of the month, losing second on the line. His last flat outing came when an eleven length eighth of thirteen in a ten furlong Windsor novice where he was again green under pressure before fading in the final half-furlong. As the race was inundated with subsequent winners, the form would not have been far off his best, itself worth little more than his official mark of 71. This would be his final outing for Paul Cole, whose former inmates have a winner runner rate of 14.71%, and improvement rate of 33.33%. Fetching £14,000 at the Tattersalls Ascot May Sale, Tartarus has since joined an Alexandra Dunn whose improvement rate stands at 18.18%, with only one of her twenty-three juveniles finding the winners’ enclosure. Ruler Of The World has one winning juvenile from seven and Tartarus has a half-brother and three uncles that are maidens over hurdles; although cousins Atalan and Jewel de Cerisy have fair form on the continent while Converti won a three mile maiden at Worcester.

Trojan Horse chc Anthony Honeyball f9-2-3 (78) 88
Ulysses (Monsun){22-d}(0.58) 0.5 Guiri 125 1st 2m4½f Handicap Hurdle (113), Punchestown 2021
Anthony Honeyball does not train many juvenile hurdlers, although he has done well with those who have run for him. With Sailing Grace winning at Newton Abbot, he is now on four winners from eleven since 2011; three of these scoring first time out. His next is set to be Trojan Horse; a 78 rated dual winner formerly trained by Mark Johnston. Honeyball has had just one higher rated in Jukebox Jive, but Trojan Horse will be his highest rated recruit. While ex-Mark Johnstone recruits have a solid winner runner rate of 23.47%, only 29.82% improve for the switch in codes. Nevertheless, the sole juvenile to switch between the yards was the 50 rated Mister Allegro who won twice for Honeyball last term. After finishing a near six length third in a mile novice at York last October, Trojan Horse got off the mark at the second time of asking towards the end of that month with an easy win at Redcar from a high seventies rated performer. Returning in mid-April, Trojan Horse landed a cross-winter brace when taking a five runner novice stakes over twelve furlongs at Ripon on heavy ground. Racing keenly to the fore he hit the front three furlongs out and though ponderous under pressure, ran to the line with a bit to spare over three subsequent winners. Trojan Horse would not add to his tally in six outings, but apart from a Royal Ascot handicap, would still run consistently. He was last seen sixty-nine days ago in a twelve furlong handicap at Ripon where, having been rated 84 earlier in the season, was running off 78. Racing close up off a steady gallop, he was unable to match the winner for pace in the final couple of furlongs, but did keep on to pull upwards of three lengths clear of the remainder. He is set to be one of two runners for first-crop sire, Ulysses, who is off the mark with jumpers after Lincoln won in France. The winner of an International Stakes and an Eclipse, and third in the 2017 Arc, Ulysses boasts a classy and well-rounded profile. Out of Galileo and Oaks winner Light Shift, he comfortably has the stamina for the minimum trip over jumps and is also an adequate 16.1hh. His pedigree credentials are further supplemented by damline appearances of Champion Chaser Dodging Bullets (3/2) and Kingwell Hurdle winner Elgin (2/3). From the family of Guadalupe (2/1) and Royal Rebel (3/1) Trojan Horse is a half-brother to two winning jumpers in Guiri and Gambol as well as being a nephew of jumps sire Getaway. Damsire Monsun is also a positive, with his broodmares producing thirteen winning juveniles from thirty-six. The entire Trojan Horse might be a little fresh first time out, but he has a decent size about him and should have no trouble getting the trip so a decent showing would not be discounted.

Volenti bg Adam West f9-1-0 (50) 60
Estidhkaar (Mastercraftsman){8-c}(3.00) 3/1 Grapelli 60.0 1st 3700, Handicap Chase (56.0), Cagnes-dur-Mer 2004
The second of two winners in this field, but rated over a stone below Trojan Horse, Volenti gained his sole success in a seven furlong Epsom handicap in mid-July. Racing off 51, he was held up off a blistering gallop and traded at 180 at one stage, but kept on as the race fell apart and led in the final strides. Since then, he has not ran to within a stone of that performance in four outings; showing a tendency to pull hard and sweat freely in the process. Switched to hurdling, his pedigree offers mixed messages as while Mastercraftsman is looking as good a damsire as sire, and the third dam produced a winning chaser in France, Volenti’s sire Estidhkaar has yet to produce a winning juvenile from eight (with twenty-six attempts between them). Adam West enjoyed his first winning juvenile this term in Rolypolymoly, but has been struggling as of late.

Rendition chf Stuart Edmunds f5-0-1 (68) 73 j1-0-0 (-) 44 68
Ulysses (Pivotal){13-e}(0.85) 3/1 Poet 127 1st 2m½f Maiden Hurdle, Newbury 2012
Since 2004/2005, three-hundred-and-eight British and Irish trainers have saddled ten or more juvenile hurdlers. Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins have the strongest winner-to-runner rates, while in joint-third place on 55.56% are Paul Nicholls and Stuart Edmunds. That was until Rendition and Via Serica brought that number down to 50% – which still gives him a clear fourth. The two juveniles previously bought by Stuart Edmund at the Tattersalls July Sale, Wolf Of Windlesham and Addosh would each earn black type during their first campaigns over hurdles having only cost 15,000 guineas. This year, Stuart Edmunds parted with 24,000 guineas in order to secure the 68 rated maiden, Rendition. Initially with Andrew Balding, Rendition made her debut when midfield in a Wolverhampton novice last December before returning in a similar contest at Chepstow in late April where she still looked green and was not strenuously encouraged to better her midfield finish. A few weeks later, Rendition went to Redcar for a ten furlong fillies’ race on good to soft where she lacked the pace of the two short-priced market principals, but was able to finish four lengths clear of the remainder. A twenty-one length midfield finish at Newbury can probably be dismissed as the race rather fell apart, and she posted what was probably her best effort to date early July in a ten-furlong fillies’ handicap at Ffos Las off 72. Unable to quicken off a modestly-run contest, she ultimately finished a six-length sixth of ten in a race which is working out quite well. Rendition is a daughter of Ulysses (covered in the Trojan Horse profile) and has a couple of pertinent uncles in Ace Ventura, who finished third in a juvenile hurdle on his debut, and Alessandro Volta, who won the Lingfield Derby Trial. The third dam produced winning hurdlers Poet and High Stratos. Rendition made her hurdling debut in late July at Stratford; the same venue where Addosh was introduced. However, while supported in the morning from 11/4 to 7/4, she drifted to 5/2 in the ring and though still sent off the second favourite, she ran a race too bad to be true. Racing keenly in the rear, she was big over the first, and awkward and slowly away at the second fifth and seventh; whereafter she was struggling to keep in touch and detached before the turn for home. Her performance was capped with a very tired jump at the last which saw her finish a thirty-one length sixth of six. Naturally, a great deal will need to have been learned from the experience and she will also need to show benefit from her wind operation. Nevertheless, her flat form does not leave her with a great deal to find on these terms and the Edmunds yard (which has had one winning juvenile from two at Kempton) is currently in decent health.

Strong prospects
I don’t know / Age Of Sail
Reasonable prospects
I don’t know / Rendition/Trojan Horse
Feasible prospects
I don’t know / Admiralty House
Moderate prospects
I don’t know / Tartarus
Negligible prospects
I don’t know / Volenti/Lark Lane

[Bachelors Hall]

Thanks lads :) Oddly enough, I did get name dropped by David Carr in the August 23rd Racing Post which was really nice!

The “top prospects” have been doing miserably this season so am not sure how much of a handle I have on this year’s bunch. I think the seconds are doing alright but I haven’t really had a look. Would be happier if more was going as expected but for however dumb I can feel from time to time, at least I am not the genius who came up with this sort of race…

Junior “National Hunt” Hurdles are a dumb idea. In August, I wrote a piece about them and had I previewed the first race of its kind, which took place at Ffos Las last Sunday, I would have borrowed heavily from said piece. Since this is the first race of its kind that I will preview, I will just repost the whole thing; partially for posterity, and partially because apart from some misunderstanding of the race’s conditions, my view has stayed unchanged for the most part.

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This season will see the introduction of Junior National Hunt Development Hurdle Races. They will be open to juveniles that have not previously competed in a Flat race, or a Jump race except for a NH Flat or Junior National Hunt Development Hurdle Race. According to Richard Wayman of the BHA, their purpose is to provide “young jumping horses with the opportunity to start their careers at an earlier stage”. The idea, according to TBA’s Bryan Mayoh is that “Jump horses need to be broken and taught to jump earlier than has been traditional in Britain”.

As things currently stand, juvenile hurdles in Britain, that traditionally begin at Hexham on Epsom Derby Day, are the opportunity and there is nothing to prevent any trainer from breaking in horses and teaching them to jump in order to participate in these contests. Indeed, in Britain and Ireland since 2004/05, 1035 horses have made their first racecourse appearances as juvenile hurdlers while 643 entered the division having started in NH Flat races and a further 103 joined from the French AQPS division. There have also been 18 juvenile hurdlers during the tail end of the season from the point-to-point field. Whether these will be excluded from the new races is not clear although for what it is worth, none of them fared better than Cobaltic who finished second in a Wexford maiden in 2019 (incidentally, Seabass does form part of this very niche group).

The apparent issue is that the French bred youngsters with hurdling experience regularly outperform the homegrown talent, and this notion is played out in the statistics. During this period, there have been 504 such imports enter the division. Their winner-to-runner rate is 45.83%, their strike rate is 22.96% and 68.25% of these animals achieve RPRs exceeding 107 during their initial campaigns. These figures alone are useless without context, so their impact values compared to all juvenile hurdlers (1.00 being the standard) read as 2.51, 2.61 and 3.92 respectively. Naturally, the fact that many of the ex-French hurdlers will have already shown sufficient ability to warrant the expense of import will skew the figures, but that they are able to outperform the local horses to such a degree is still very notable.

There is another group of juveniles with even better figures, although these are flat recruits who were officially rated 100 and above. Given that this type is invariably the most expensive available through public sale, and is increasingly sent to race in warmer climes, their relevance would be of diminishing interest to breeders and organisers alike.

Insofar as those qualified to run in this new subdivision of juvenile hurdling are concerned, it would be useful to see how such types have fared over the years;

From this table, the most prominent finding is that if you want to win one of these races, simply buy a French bumper horse. This is perfectly fine for those who wish to mop up a few races which will be less competitive than open juvenile hurdles. However, quite how it resolves the issues this initiative sets out to remedy is another matter entirely. Furthermore, of the 72 unraced horses who won as juveniles, 28 of them were bred in France at a winner-to-runner rate of 16.67% (ahead of Germany – 8.33%, Britain – 6.49%, America – 6.25%, and Ireland – 4.60%). Among the sires of the unraced French bred winners were Discover d’Auteuil, Kapgarde and Maille Pistol, while the sires of ex-AQPS performers includes the likes of Buck’s Boum, Cokoriko, Dom Alco and Great Pretender before we even get past the G’s.

The direction of where this exposition is going is not very well hidden, but it is one rooted in fundamental breeding theory. If you want a precocious foal, you send a speedy mare to Dark Angel or No Nay Never. If you want a foal that will stay, then send a stout mare to Camelot or Nathaniel. If you want your foal to hold its form for a few years then maybe use Sea The Stars or Dubawi.

If you want a jumper who will win races as early as three, send a jumps mare to a stallion who did well over obstacles at an early age.

The common denominator among a sizable portion of successful young hurdlers in France is that their sires ran over hurdles themselves. The likes of Saint des Saints, Kapgarde, Turgeon, Balko and Great Pretender have been mainstays on the leading sire lists for over a generation while Cokoriko, Jeu St Eloi, Castle du Berlais (all by jumpers themselves), Choeur du Nord, Magneticjim and Gemix promise to perpetuate this precept for the foreseeable future.

The above notwithstanding, these Junior National Hunt Development Hurdle Races will be welcomed in this quarter; albeit purely as a novelty offshoot to the division rather than as an initiative that will make any discernible impact on the British jumps breeding industry. The solution to the dearth of young jumps talent produced by British breeders would be to stock more stallions with jumps experience. Simply buying existing stallions from France would be a short-cut but perhaps not one conducive to long term success. A more viable and sustainable option would be to encourage connections to keep their national hunt prospects entire. Rather admirably, this is being attempted by the Pitchall Stud in an effort to keep Midnight Legend’s legacy alive with Midnights Legacy. However, it is a hefty responsibility for one horse to carry on its shoulders. The mares’ side of the sport has seen an expansive proliferation of races and save for the festival’s mares’ hurdle detracting from several Champion Hurdles and Stayers Hurdles over the years, the positive results on the breed have been self-evident. An equivalent series of jumps contests for colts and horses would, at this juncture, suffer greatly from the shallow pool of possible participants. Nevertheless, if a significant bonus was offered to connections of an entire horse winning or even reaching the frame in a Grade One hurdle, that would most probably yield far greater results than this latest initiative.

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Regarding the bit within the conditions I misunderstood, it turns out that those who had raced prior to the 1st of October 2022 are not qualified. However, while it states that horses must not have ran in flat races, it is not clear whether Bumpers held since the start of this month are counted. Nor does it make any mention of a horse making a winning jumps debut in France since October (and it is worth noting that Auteuil and Cagnes-sur-Mer each host decent newcomers races during this time period).

In any event, the first one was held last Sunday and to the astonishment of absolutely nobody, there were just five declared runners, four were French bred and the rank outsider was an Irish bred by Milan who has not had a single winning juvenile from seventeen, out of a mare by Presenting who has one winner from twenty-two as a sire, and none from twenty-two as a damsire. The second edition has just four newcomers set to face the starter. Half are French bred, one is a flat bred who has an accidentally good pedigree for the sphere, and the other is the first runner over hurdles for an actual British based jumps sire; albeit a slow maturing staying type.

Quite how these races are supposed to strengthen the British national hunt breeding industry is anybody’s guess. Perhaps the genius in the programme’s design will stun us all in a decade’s time. But for now, it is just a stupid novelty which will serve no purpose beyond messing up my stats for unraced horses. Indeed, if any good horses do emerge, they can remain novices for next season provided they stick to three races. What a stupid, stupid idea. Newton Abbot is a tight track with its winning Dis putting it in the sharper third of racecourses. The going is currently good although light showers are forecast.

Him Malaya bg Paul Nicholls Unraced
Martaline (Kendor){12-e}(0.57) 1/1 Malaya 142 1st Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (L), Wetherby 2017
Paul Nicholls is one of the most successful trainers of juvenile hurdlers around. Since 2004, he has trained 105 individual winning juveniles (second only to Alan King), earned £2.3 million (second only to Willie Mullins) and won Grade Ones with Adrien du Pont, All Yours, Celestial Halo, Monmiral, Quel Destin and Zarkandar. Many of his juvenile hurdlers have also gone on to become top class in the long term including Clan des Obeaux, Frodon, Twist Magic and Dodging Bullets. However, not once has he sent a horse out to make his racing debut in a juvenile hurdle. The closest to doing so has been with Grand Sancy who ran in a couple of “junior bumpers” in 2017 before a four race campaign which saw him twice finish second in novice hurdles before a well held fourth in the Adonis and his pulling up in the Fred Winter. Nevertheless, there will be few more appropriate juveniles for his first foray into this novelty sphere than Him Malaya. As his fairly witty name suggests, Him Malaya is a full-brother to Malaya; a filly who won the Listed Wensleydale Juvenile for the yard in 2017 before winning the juvenile handicap at Ascot later in the season and eventually landing the Imperial Cup. Malaya was very much an early sort as she took a three-year-old hurdle at Lyon in March (by thirty lengths) as well as the listed Prix d’Iena in May before moving to Ditcheat. However, she was also a useful fairly sort on the flat and thought good enough to run in listed company at two. Him Malaya is also an uncle of this season’s useful looking three-year-old hurdler Jac Jumper, his grandam was a good multiple winner over jumps while other capable relatives include Cladour (2/1), Daytona Beach AA (2/2) and Saint Charles (3/1). Martaline is one of the strongest French sires of three-year-old jumpers (34.69% winner to runner in his native country) and his exported juveniles have represented him well as per We Have A Dream, Riviere d’Etel and the aforementioned Malaya. None of his five unraced British or Irish juvenile debutants managed a win in eleven starts although his juvenile offspring are undefeated at Newton Abbot thanks to Hell Red. Paul Nicholls also has a solid record at the venue, boasting three wins and three placings from nine starts, and his overall stable form is strong at the moment.

Ice N Slice chg Kayley Woollacott Unraced
New Approach (Medicean){11-d}(0.60) 2/1 Thomas Hobson 158 1st Leamington Novices’ Hurdle (G2), Warwick 2016
Kayley Woollacott has yet to saddle a juvenile hurdler although her late husband did have seven run without success; including three who would have qualified for these races. Her first runner in the sphere is set to be Ice N Slice who, after fetching 105,000 guineas as a yearling, failed to see the racecourse for Jessica Harrington and was sold for just 5,500 guineas at the Tattersalls May Online sale. Those who Jessica Harrington eschews a juvenile hurdling career for the sales have just a 3.03% strike rate, although few will have more compelling pedigrees for the sphere. Sire New Approach has a fine winner to runner rate of 40.74% headed by useful multiple scorers in Stepney Causeway, Jaleo and last season’s top class Pied Piper (he is also two wins from three with juveniles at Newton Abbot). Ice N Slice is also a nephew of the talented Thomas Hobson and Fearless, while his third dam produced another classy type in Torpichen. Nevertheless, the tumbling sales prices and the trainer having a quiet spell (only recent runner failed to land gamble) limit appeal here.

Jupiter Allen chg Jane Williams Unraced
Castle du Berlais (Network){u}(0.23) 1/0 Bienvenue Allen 55.0 1st 3600m 45yo AQPS Mares Conditions Hurdle, Argentan 2016
Of all the British trainers who this series would have appealed to, there is no more obvious candidate than the George Nympton pairing of Nick and Jane Williams. While the woeful record of unraced newcomers is covered in the introduction, Nick and Jane Williams are something of an exception. Since 2004, they have had sixteen such horses win in the sphere (four doing so first-time-out), along with another five winners who were trained by the pair to make their debuts in France. Amongst these horses are graded winning juveniles Flying Tiger, Le Rocher and Me Voici, along with the top class pair of Fox Norton and Reve de Sivola. They naturally had a runner in the first race of its kind at Ffos Las, although that one ran out at the last while still competitive. Their second such runner is set to be Jupiter Allen who, in the spirit of firsts, is set to be the maiden British representative of first-crop sire Castle du Berlais (also mentioned in the intro). A son of Saint des Saints, Castle du Berlais has the type of pedigree one would expect in a French based jumps sire. A full-brother to the dam of Grade One winner Altesse du Berlais and Grade One placed Colbert du Berlais, he is a half-brother to Sire du Berlais, the son of another Grade One winning mare, and the nephew of Royal Rosa and Royal Atalza. During his brief racing career, he won two of eight starts including the Prix Roger de Minvielle; a listed chase for three-year-olds. His first season at stud has started well, with four winners from fifteen including the useful looking Goliath du Rheu and Chief Cove. Jupiter Allen’s damline has plenty of winning jumpers, although those nearby are not wholly precocious. His dam registered her sole success as a five-year-old while uncle Doll Allen and granddam Nadou won in cross country chases. There are earlier types from the third dam including Montreal (3/1), Eden Conti (3/2), Moissac (4/1), Mirande (4/1), Connetable (4/3) and Hemevoici (4/3). Any horse of this nature sent out by the yard will be of obvious interest and current stable form is better than numbers suggest. However, Newton Abbot is not the dour test that would probably bring out the best in Jupiter Allen.

Sailing Grace bf Anthony Honeyball Unraced
Dartmouth (Scorpion){1-w}(0.69) 1/0 War Creation 121 1st 2m3f Handicap Hurdle (112), Haydock 2017
From the archetypal first-crop French jumps stallion to the fairly typical first-crop British jumps stallion. Dartmouth won a mile maiden at Sandown as a two year old, though he would spend all but the end of his three-year-old campaign handicapping. At four, he won the Ormonde and Hardwicke before placing in the King George and Canadian International, and his five-year-old campaign saw him win the Yorkshire Cup and fail by a nose to win the Lonsdale. Though he has had a flat winner (over twelve furlongs), Dartmouth has the hallmarks of a jumps stallion. A tall horse at 16.1hh, he is a half-brother to a hurdler who won his sole race at six, while Forgotten Voice, Idol’s Lad, Big Occasion (3/2) Flash Ball and Boarding School (4/2) also appear on his damline. Seven of the ten sons of Dubawi to have tried have produced winning juvenile hurdlers, although the combined winner runner rate is a fair 18.06%His first runner over jumps is set to be Sailing Grace who is out of a winning hurdler by Scorpion; another typical jumps sire who, though capable of producing top-class jumpers in Might Bite and Riders On the Storm, had an abysmal record with juvenile hurdlers – none of his sixteen winning from thirty starts between them. Sailing Grace is the niece of three other winning jumpers in Taniokey, Blazer’s Mill and On The Sixth Day, while Plaid Maid (5/3), Carruthers and Coneygree (5/4) are notable distant relatives. Anthony Honeyball is not a prolific trainer of juveniles although of the ten he has saddled, three were able to win with two doing so first time out. Sailing Grace has a reasonable profile for a national hunt horse, although based on most available evidence, “store horse” types tend not to make juvenile hurdlers.

Strong prospects
1. Him Malaya
Reasonable prospects
2. Jupiter Allen
Moderate prospects
3. Sailing Grace
4. Ice N Slice

[Bachelors Hall]

Apologies for dropping off the radar – particularly given the recent drama which is simply a case of bad timing! Rather annoyingly, work and general life are not bedfellows of exhaustive research projects. The past few races have also been fairly bobbins but that’s by the by. Nevertheless, tomorrow’s contest at Wetherby was well worth a three-quarter-arsed essay :)

Jump racing returns to Wetherby with the fixture featuring a juvenile hurdle that has been present on the card since the early eighties. Since 2004, its average winner’s seasonal best RPR of 105.7 has been nearly a stone below standard and has seldom had much bearing on the future. Nevertheless, fairly useful sorts in Simply Gifted and Mixsterthetrixter made their jumps debuts in the contest during the nineties, with Poker de Sivola and King d’Argent also being introduced in subsequent renewals. The race is also a springboard for the Wensleydale Hurdle later in the month, although of the thirty-two to take in both races, only Aviation (eighth in the 2005 running) would go on to land perhaps the weakest ever edition of that contest. This year’s renewal could be above-average as it pits the unbeaten The Churchill Lad against Milton Harris’ most expensive juvenile hurdler seen to date. A flat, galloping track, the West Yorkshire venue’s average winning DI of 1.26 is close to standard, although the clear round rate of 94.6% is the fourth lowest in Britain. Experience is a useful asset in this particular contest, with newcomers having a 6.35% strike rate compared to 10.53% for those with a run under their girths; although this gap is not especially pronounced across all races at the course. The going is currently described as good, good to firm in places with a chance of light rain falling before post time. None of the seven runners are habitual pacesetters and though a couple have raced fairly enthusiastically, the gallop is unlikely to be overly taxing.

The Churchill Lad bg Rebecca Menzies f6-1-0 (67) 72 j1-1-0 (-) 101 103
Churchill (Discreetly Mine){20-a}(0.71) 5/2 Wishlon 158 3rd Christmas Hurdle, Kempton 1988
Representing the first crop of Churchill and coming from the family of Jack Sullivan (2/1) and Seventh Heaven (2/3), The Churchill Lad commanded 105,000 guineas as a foal and 130,000 guineas as a yearling before joining the Joseph O’Brien. Starting his career last December, his first three outings came in successive months wherein he finished sixth in Dundalk maidens on each occasion. He was largely undone by inexperience first time out and his second outing can be forgiven due to a very slow start. Stepping up to ten furlongs for his final Irish engagement, The Churchill Lad raced in close order, but was done by a lack of pace in the closing stages; finishing just over four lengths behind the winner. The Churchill Lad was entered for the Tattersalls Online Sale in March, but was withdrawn beforehand in order to join Rebecca Menzies. There can be a degree of caution when it comes to those let go by Joseph O’Brien as of the eighteen to have left Owning Hill, just two would win as juveniles. That being said, Menzies may be an exception to this trend as the promising Hasty Brook has at least maintained his form, and The Churchill Lad has shown no signs of regression since moving to Howe Hills. He was initially set to take in the season’s curtain raiser at Hexham in June, but was instead redirected to Haydock for a ten furlong handicap off 67. Having his first start on turf, he once again fell asleep in the stalls and racing off a sound pace, was still bringing up the rear turning into the straight. Met with traffic issues three furlongs out, he had to be brought wide to make his effort and though green under pressure, ran on to snatch fourth in the final strides. He started at 33/1 for his next outing at Newcastle later in June, but was still fairly disappointing in a first time hood where, having raced keenly for much of the contest, was unable to quicken in a race which benefited those at the head of affairs. Nevertheless, after missing engagements at Carlisle and Wolverhampton, The Churchill Lad was able to break his duck at the sixth time of asking when returning to Newcastle for a two mile handicap in mid-August. Held up behind the field while taking a keen hold, he was shaken up approaching the distance whereafter he picked off his rivals one-by-one. Under a strong drive, he caught the clear leader at the furlong pole and though the idling rival was spurred on by the new challenge, The Churchill Lad pulled out extra towards the finish to prevail by a decisive neck; the pair finishing nine lengths clear of the strung out remainder. Much of what can be discerned from The Churchill Lad’s pedigree insofar as his hurdling prospects are concerned would have been based on conjecture. The Churchill Lad was Churchill’s first runner over jumps, and there are no national hunt horses nearby on the predominantly American damline. Notwithstanding, Churchill’s prospects are not without merit for this vocation. Winner of the National and Dewhurst stakes at two before landing the English and Irish Guineas double, Churchill did finish second in the International but was not wholly proven beyond a mile. While he is out of Galileo, the damline is not entirely conducive to stamina, with full-sister Clemmie restricted to eight furlongs, and granddam Airwave being a very fast mare. Nevertheless, Churchill’s full-brother Blenheim Palace stayed at least eleven furlongs, and his height of 16.2hh, and overall class, will be positives in this endeavour. The distaff side provides only one piece of distance evidence regarding jumps potential, although this does come in the form of Wishlon who finished third in the 1988 Christmas Hurdle as a novice. Though not yet granted the most powerful ammunition, the up and coming Rebecca Menzies has done well to date with her picking up black type with the £2,000 Fabianski, getting a win out of the 51 rated Tabou Beach Boy, having only one fall/unseat from thirty-four runs, and boasting an improvement rate of 55.55% (the highest in this field). The Churchill Lad looked as strong a juvenile prospect as any handled by his trainer and he made a near flawless start to his hurdling career at Cartmel six weeks ago. Backed into 15/8 having opened at 9/4, The Churchill Lad was held up last of four in a strongly ran race. He moved into third on passing the sticky toffee pudding shop and gained another position along the woodside before entering the final bend poised on the leader’s quarters. Jumping the last, The Churchill Lad held a lead of several lengths which was extended in no uncertain terms on the run-in before he was eased in the final hundred yards; crossing the line twenty-four and thirty-eight lengths to the good over his rivals. Quite what he achieved is difficult to ascertain as the front pair went off too quickly for their own good, the third was never at the races and the winning time was modest compared to everything else on the card. Nevertheless, The Churchill Lad travelled as well as any juvenile seen in Britain this season, and his hurdling was also up there as the only semblances of imperfection came when he was somewhat tight at the third, fifth and sixth. It is highly probable that he came close to the best of his performances on the level and shaped as though he would improve for the experience. The Churchill Lad does have a penalty to shoulder and on these terms, the interesting Highland Frolic is a stone well in on flat form. That pre-race exuberance cost him his taking part in a Market Rasen contest a fortnight ago is also a concern, the race is not certain to be run to suit and the yard has yet to have a winner from fifteen this month. Nevertheless, his experience at Cartmel should stand him in good stead here and he is the only proven winner in this line-up on either code so an honest showing is not difficult to envisage.

Ballynaveen Boy grg Sam Allwood f7-0-0 (44) 49
El Kabeir (Oasis Dream){4-m}(3.00) 0.5 Demi Plie 134 1st 2m4f Mares Handicap Chase (127), Fairyhouse 2019
Sam Allwood has yet to saddle a winning juvenile hurdler from six, El Kabeir has yet to produce one from four, and the 44 rated Ballynaveen Boy is not an obvious candidate to buck those trends. Beaten by over a dozen lengths in six of his seven flat outings, and only once running close to his BHA mark, the only glimmer of optimism appears on the damline. Distantly related to Enable (4/2), he is a half-brother to the fairly useful mare Demi Plie (by Mastercraftsman) and the third dam produced three useful winning jumpers in Tandem, Gallant Light and Porgy.

Highland Frolic bg Milton Harris f4-0-1 (73) 81
Highland Reel (Nayef){4-n}(0.82) 2/1 Trebizond 112 1st 1m7½f Maiden Hurdle, Roscommon 2021
Since returning from an enforced sabbatical, Milton Harris has made an art of both training and sourcing juvenile hurdlers. Without spending more than 27,000 guineas at public sale, he has saddled ten winning juveniles from twenty-three including his first Grade One winner in Knight Salute last season. This success has instilled both confidence and ambition in his owners which manifested in four juveniles being recruited over the summer for sums exceeding £50,000. The first of these to jump a hurdle is set to be Highland Frolic; a maiden who left John Gosden with a BHA rating of 73. Juvenile hurdlers who started their careers at Clarehaven tend not to set the division alight with their winner to runner rate a fair 16.67%, and a modest improvement rate of 21.74%. Nevertheless, Milton Harris has thus far bucked that trend with both his ex-Gosden recruits, Pyramid Place and Aliomaana, winning multiple races. Incidentally, the former was the most expensive recruit for the yard prior to the recent spree. Gelded prior to seeing the racecourse and sporting blinkers first time out, Highland Frolic made his debut in a Haydock novice stakes over a near mile and a half back in April. Starting at twice his morning show of 6/1, he was held up in rear off a very modest tempo and found himself caught napping when the race picked up entering the straight. Nevertheless, despite running green having been given plenty to do, he made good ground inside the distance and though unable to reach the front pair, ran on well to finish a length and a half third; splitting a pair of next time out winners. He ran no kind of race next time at Yarmouth where he was a drifter in the market before finishing completely tailed off. Highland Frolic was more stable in the market for his next appearance a fortnight later in a twelve furlong Salisbury maiden. Ridden out of the stalls with purpose, he set a strong pace and though he was off the bridle half a mile from home, he held his position until approaching the distance whereafter he fell into a near six length fifth. Making the switch into handicap company when last seen some four months ago at Doncaster, Highland Frolic was given a mark of 74. An awkward start forced a reversion to more conservative tactics behind a steady gallop, although while he was in a decent enough position in the straight, he was unable to make any real impression on the contest as he plugged on for a near six-length fourth. Nevertheless, the form has worked out well for the level, with the second, third and fifth winning over the next couple of months. Being a half-brother to Palace Pier, neither his breeding nor yearling price tag of 320,000 guineas suggested a juvenile hurdling campaign was a goal for Highland Frolic. Nevertheless, the pedigree is not wholly inconsistent with his new venture as Highland Reel has made a fine start in the sphere, with half of his four hurdlers to date winning, and the other half placing. Uncle Trebizond also won a maiden at four years old while another, Burns Night, would also land a modest staying handicap hurdle later in his career. Since 2018, the sole Milton Harris juvenile sent to Wetherby was Wensleydale runner-up Genuflex, and Highland Frolic will be the yard’s sole runner on the card. Lack of experience is always a factor for newcomers, although Milton Harris has a fine record in this regard as attested by the fact that five of his twenty juveniles since 2018 scored first time, and none fifty-six since 2004 has fallen or unseated. Highland Frolic is a patently interesting recruit to the sphere and has plenty of positives in his profile, although racecourse evidence does suggest that he may benefit from a solid pace which is not a given here.

John The Pirate brg Philip Kirby Unraced
Mondialiste (Dalakhani){7-a}(0.51) 3/1 Ashnaya 115 1st 2m7½f Novice Chase, Wetherby 2005
Philip Kirby has a solid winner-to-runner rate of 26.32% with juvenile hurdlers, although his first time strike rate is just 6.25%. John The Pirate is set to make his racecourse debut in a juvenile hurdle, and such horses have a strike-rate of just 2.40% first time out. None of the yard’s five previously unraced juveniles managed a win during their initial campaigns. He is part of Mondialiste’s first crop of jumpers, which currently has a record of one fall and one unplaced from two starts. Standing at a decent 16.1hh, the globetrotting Mondialiste won his first race at four before landing the Woodbine Mile and Arlington Million as well as finishing third in the Prix Jean Prat. Though a son of Galileo, whose winner to runner rate as a grandsire is a decent 27.6%, Mondialiste’s nephew Intello has had one winning juvenile from eight with none improving on their flat form. John The Pirate’s imminent damline consists of several maidens of little note, although cousin Richard Strauss, along with Ashnaya (3/1) did win over jumps and the class increases further out with Contraband (3/2), High Ransom (3/2), Royal Gait (4/2) and Lieutenant Miller (4/5). Hungarian super sprinter Overdose also appears at 3/2.

Robin Goodfellow bg Tracy Waggott f6-0-0 (42) 45
Dark Angel (Kingmambo){22-b}(1.08) 0.5 Ruggero 0 PU 2m Novices’ Hurdle, Warwick 2015
Born a Godolphin horse but failing to run in the blue colours, Robin Goodfellow joined Tracy Waggott for 14,000 guineas at Tattersalls in May. In six outings since May, at distances ranging from a mile to a mile and six, his best effort was a plodding on fifth of nine off 46 in a ferociously run Musselburgh handicap. His yard has yet to have a winning juvenile from fourteen having twenty-nine starts between them. Dark Angel’s record is solid in the division but the damline is without any winning jumper before Rosodeaux at 5/3. One half-brother pulled up on both outings over hurdles, but another, Buratino, has sired a couple of winners in the sphere.

Run At Dawn chg Nigel Hawke f2-0-0 (-) 60
Dawn Approach (Teofilo){13-c}(0.45) 1/0 Ringside Humour 123 4th 2m½f Mares Novice Hurdle, Punchestown 2017
Nigel Hawke’s record with ex-Jim Bolger horses has been a topic covered on numerous occasions in my writing due to the uniquely impressive results. Outside of this dynamic Hawke’s winner-to-runner rate with juvenile hurdles stands at 9.09% while ex-Bolger juveniles have one of 20%. Nevertheless, of the eleven who have moved from Coolcullen to Thorne Farm seven found the winners’ enclosure. What makes this arrangement all the more intriguing is that it constitutes part a journey which ultimately leads to the Keri Brion and the American jumps programme; as trodden by the likes of Boulette, Theocrat, Peat Moss and, the winner of this very contest in 2020, Historic Heart. Furthermore, the Nigel Hawke yard has a record of two winners from five in Wetherby juveniles. However, the yard’s first time strike rate stands at just 4.41%, and the Wetherby winners already had plenty of experience; Pola Chance was making his seventh appearance over hurdles, and Historic Heart his fourth. The latest Bolger-Hawke-America candidate is Run At Dawn who made his racecourse debut for Hawke at Ffos Las in early August in a heavy ground maiden over an extended seven furlongs. Though far too green to do himself justice, he still outran his 80/1 SP when eventually figuring out how to go in a straight line to finish a seven and a half length third. He returned to the former coal mine later than month, but weakened to finish fifth over ten furlongs. Though his dam was a fair novice hurdler, Run At Dawn has a modest pedigree for the sphere overall. Sire Dawn Approach has had just one winning juvenile from seventeen, and the nearest winner on the damline is Concetta at 5/5. Run At Dawn is unexposed and does provoke some curiosity, although his profile is not sufficiently substantial to warrant considerable attention first time out.

Vintage Valley grg Donald McCain f3-0-0 (65) 66 j1-0-0 (-) 87 85
Mastercraftsman (Araafa){1-i}(1.50) 2/2 Genuflex 106 2nd Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (L), Wetherby 2021
In 2011, Hollow Tree left Andrew Balding to join Donald McCain for who he won three races as a juvenile including the Grade One Finale Hurdle. Since then, two other juveniles failed to score having made that journey, although there is some evidence to suggest that Vintage Valley is capable of breaking that trend. A thrice raced maiden on the flat, Vintage Valley shaped with some promise on his debut at Haydock in April when running green and lacking the pace to better fifth in a steadily run mile and a half contest. He failed to show on his return to that venue the following month, but probably matched the form of his debut when fifth of eight at Chepstow back in June. After fetching £32,000 at the Tattersalls Ascot Sale in July, Vintage Valley made his hurdling debut at Sedgefield a fortnight ago in the same contest McCain introduced Genever Dragon to make a winning debut two years ago. On breeding, there is plenty of encouragement in the pedigree for the game. Mastercraftsman is one of the most successful sires of juveniles and along with Genuflex, he is also a cousin of Gendarme and Good Prince, as well as a nephew of Ginistrelli. Starting at 10/1, he was much easier in the market of the two Fyffe runners, although the other was rated eighteen pounds superior on the flat and already had a run over hurdles to his name. Leading early before getting a lead in the straight first time round, he disputed going out onto the second circuit before a tight jump at the last in the back saw him lose ground. Well behind by the time they turned for home, Vintage Valley merely got the better of a scrap with a 100/1 outsider for a twenty-nine length fourth. Apart from tight jumps at the first, and the same flight on the second circuit, he posted a fair round of jumping; albeit with a tendency to go towards his left. The bare form of Vintage Valley’s debut is modest, but he shapes as though he ought to improve in due course. Notwithstanding, the leading pair have more substance about them and with McCain having won only two from thirty with juveniles at Wetherby, there will be better opportunities later in the season.

Strong prospects
1. Highland Frolic
2. The Churchill Lad
Feasible/Moderate prospects
3. Vintage Valley
4. Run At Dawn
Negligible prospects
5. John The Pirate
6. Ballynaveen Boy
7. Robin Goodfellow

Hi FJ

I actually wrote a piece on that sort of race a couple of months ago

Junior National Hunt Development Hurdle Races

That probably would have been the bulk of any preview I would have written on the race. In the event, the only four who stood a chance were all French bred and the fifth was an Irish bred by a Milan who is 0 winners 17 runners in juvenile hurdles, out of a Presenting who is 22-1 winner runner as a sire and 22-0 WR as a damsire. Interesting novelty but a profoundly stupid idea if the intention is to improve the breeding industry.

[Bachelors Hall]

Having just written a long arse essay on the back of a busy week at work, my thoughts will be very brief and incomplete…

The slots article was bad, but its existence is fair game for discussion and I appreciate it being opened to same.

The gamstop article was neither open to discussion nor compatible with my wilful presence. Its removal came later than ideal and its stench will linger, but the basic demand was eventually met so quid pro quo, I am content to post here again.

Given the controversy, I would like to offer more substantial thoughts in the near future, but for now, I will just thank everybody concerned for their patience and contributions.

[Bachelors Hall]

I see that my mission to convert the world into autonomous worshipers at the altar of juvenile hurdlers was an unqualified success…

The juvenile hurdle on Market Rasen’s ‘Prelude’ card was, in 2003, a selling race. That contest was won by Quick who was bought-in for 3,600 guineas ahead of a career which saw him place at the Cheltenham festival. With the exception of 2005, it has since been a Class 2 contest and carries a very respectable roll call that would warrant a title along the lines of “Triumph Hurdle of the Summer”. Indeed, 2006 winner Katchit would follow up in the real deal at Cheltenham later that season while Franchoek, runner-up in 2007, and Barizan, winner in 2009, would each finish second in the Festival showpiece. Recent years have been comparatively barren with the latest graduate to reach the front five in the Triumph being 2015 winner Leoncavallo. Nevertheless, the likes of Fox Norton, Cliffs of Dover and Talking About You have emerged from this race to collect pattern races during the same season. Though this contest is usually representative of the best juvenile hurdlers seen over the summer, this summer’s crop has lacked the strength and depth of previous seasons. Just two come into this race with hurdling experience and while the unexposed The Churchill Lad put up one of the more impressive British performances to date, Via Serica failed to show on his start over course and distance. Moreover, only one of the four newcomers won on the flat and although their form is above average in the grand scheme of things, it is ten pound short of that shown by four of the six winning newcomers in this race. Notwithstanding, all six declared runners have positives in their profile and while it is a stretch to imagine many of these contesting the season’s better races, it should still be an interesting and informative affair.

Set in the town rumoured to be the subject of Elton John’s “Saturday Night’s Alright For Fighting”, Market Rasen is a fairly tight, right handed circuit with minor undulations. Favouring sharper sorts, its average winners’ DIs of 1.27 median, 1.68 mean, are some of the highest in the country and while they drop for this particular contest, this would be more due to class correlation than any real stamina requirements; the average winner’s seasonal RPR being eight pounds higher than in other races at the venue. The clear round rate of 95.72% is fractionally below the national average although it does see more juveniles pull up than standard. Previous winners have an impact value of 1.79 in this race although while newcomers can struggle to jump around the venue, they are historically at no discernible disadvantage in this race. The ground is currently riding as good and has been watered to maintained with little to no rain is forecast before post time. A few of these have made the running on the flat, including a free-running sort who did so over an extended mile last time out. Without being particularly strong or searching, the pace should at least be honest.

The Churchill Lad bg Rebecca Menzies f6-1-0 (67) 72 j1-1-0 (-) 101 103
Churchill (Discreetly Mine){20-a}(0.71) 5/2 Wishlon 158 3rd Christmas Hurdle, Kempton 1988
Representing the first crop of Churchill and coming from the family of Jack Sullivan (2/1) and Seventh Heaven (2/3), The Churchill Lad commanded 105,000 guineas as a foal and 130,000 guineas as a yearling before joining the Joseph O’Brien. Starting his career last December, his first three outings came in successive months wherein he finished sixth in Dundalk maidens on each occasion. He was largely undone by inexperience first time out and his second outing can be forgiven due to a very slow start. Stepping up to ten furlongs for his final Irish engagement, The Churchill Lad raced in close order, but was done by a lack of pace in the closing stages; finishing just over four lengths behind the winner. The Churchill Lad was entered for the Tattersalls Online Sale in March, but was withdrawn beforehand in order to join Rebecca Menzies. There can be a degree of caution when it comes to those let go by Joseph O’Brien as of the eighteen to have left Owning Hill, just two would win as juveniles. That being said, Menzies may be an exception to this trend as the promising Hasty Brook has at least maintained his form, and The Churchill Lad has shown no signs of regression since moving to Howe Hills. He was initially set to take in the season’s curtain raiser at Hexham in June, but was instead redirected to Haydock for a ten furlong handicap off 67. Having his first start on turf, he once again fell asleep in the stalls and racing off a sound pace, was still bringing up the rear turning into the straight. Met with traffic issues three furlongs out, he had to be brought wide to make his effort and though green under pressure, ran on to snatch fourth in the final strides. He started at 33/1 for his next outing at Newcastle later in June, but was still fairly disappointing in a first time hood where, having raced keenly for much of the contest, was unable to quicken in a race which benefited those at the head of affairs. Nevertheless, after missing engagements at Carlisle and Wolverhampton, The Churchill Lad was able to break his duck at the sixth time of asking when returning to Newcastle for a two mile handicap in mid-August. Held up behind the field while taking a keen hold, he was shaken up approaching the distance whereafter he picked off his rivals one-by-one. Under a strong drive, he caught the clear leader at the furlong pole and though the idling rival was spurred on by the new challenge, The Churchill Lad pulled out extra towards the finish to prevail by a decisive neck; the pair finishing nine lengths clear of the strung out remainder. Much of what can be discerned from The Churchill Lad’s pedigree insofar as his hurdling prospects are concerned would have been based on conjecture. The Churchill Lad was Churchill’s first runner over jumps, and there are no national hunt horses nearby on the predominantly American damline. Notwithstanding, Churchill’s prospects are not without merit for this vocation. Winner of the National and Dewhurst stakes at two before landing the English and Irish Guineas double, Churchill did finish second in the International but was not wholly proven beyond a mile. While he is out of Galileo, the damline is not entirely conducive to stamina, with full-sister Clemmie restricted to eight furlongs, and granddam Airwave being a very fast mare. Nevertheless, Churchill’s full-brother Blenheim Palace stayed at least eleven furlongs, and his height of 16.2hh, and overall class, will be positives in this endeavour. The distaff side provides only one piece of distance evidence regarding jumps potential, although this does come in the form of Wishlon who finished third in the 1988 Christmas Hurdle as a novice. Though not yet granted the most powerful ammunition, the up and coming Rebecca Menzies has done well to date with her picking up black type with the £2,000 Fabianski, getting a win out of the 51 rated Tabou Beach Boy, having only one fall/unseat from thirty-four runs, and boasting an improvement rate of 55.55% (the highest in this field). The Churchill Lad looked as strong a juvenile prospect as any handled by his trainer and he made a near flawless start to his hurdling career at Cartmel four weeks ago. Backed into 15/8 having opened at 9/4, The Churchill Lad was held up last of four in a strongly ran race. He moved into third on passing the sticky toffee pudding shop and gained another position along the woodside before entering the final bend poised on the leader’s quarters. Jumping the last, The Churchill Lad held a lead of several lengths which was extended in no uncertain terms on the run-in before he was eased in the final hundred yards; crossing the line twenty-four and thirty-eight lengths to the good over his rivals. Quite what he achieved is difficult to ascertain as the front pair went off too quickly for their own good, the third was never at the races and the winning time was modest compared to everything else on the card. Nevertheless, The Churchill Lad travelled as well as any juvenile seen in Britain this season, and his hurdling was also up there as the only semblances of imperfection came when he was somewhat tight at the third, fifth and sixth. It is highly probable that he came close to the best of his performances on the level and shaped as though he would improve for the experience. The Churchill Lad does have a penalty to shoulder and also has a bit to find with a few rivals on flat form. Nevertheless, his experience at Cartmel should stand him in good stead here, the race could be ran to suit, and with the yard amongst the winners at Perth this week, The Churchill Lad holds decent prospects in a fairly weak renewal of this contest.

Just Another One bg Nigel Hawke f2-0-2 (-) 77
Vocalised (Galileo){1-x}(1.09) 1/2 Leagan Gaeilge 116 1st 3yo Maiden Hurdle, Leopardstown 2019
Nigel Hawke’s record with ex-Jim Bolger horses has been a topic covered on numerous occasions in my writing due to the uniquely impressive results. Outside of this dynamic Hawke’s winner-to-runner rate with juvenile hurdles stands at 9.09% while ex-Bolger juveniles have one of 20%. Nevertheless, of the eleven who have moved from Coolcullen to Thorne Farm seven found the winners’ enclosure. What makes this arrangement all the more intriguing is that it constitutes part a journey which ultimately leads to the Keri Brion and the American jumps programme; as trodden by the likes of Historic Heart, Boulette, Theocrat and Peat Moss. This season’s class began with I Have A Voice last week at Plumpton, and following on his hooves is Just Another One. Gelded in December and leaving Bolger’s to join Hawke in July, Just Another One first saw the racecourse in August for an uncompetitive five-runner Nottingham maiden held over an extended mile on good-to-firm. Drifting from a morning 20/1 to 66/1 at the off, Just Another One spent the early stages of the contest in rear and, at times, somewhat detached from the pack. He made headway to move into second at the distance and while he never stood a chance against the 85 rated long odds-on favourite, he comfortably held the remaining three to the tune of nearly four lengths. A fortnight later, he reappeared in a restricted ten-furlong maiden at Ffos Lass where he fluctuated in the market before starting at 33/1. He was sent into the lead before disputing at an even tempo. Responding to pressure two furlongs out, he was headed a furlong out and carried across the track by the 85 rated winner. Though he rallied, he ultimately went down by a neck and was probably flattered by the proximity. Nevertheless, the fourth and fifth each placed next time out and the form is amongst the stronger represented in this line-up. Sire Vocalised has a weak record in the sphere, with only one of his twenty-four juveniles managing a win from fifty-six outings. Nevertheless, that win did come from Just Another One’s niece/half-sister Leagan Gaeilge, who won her first and only start over hurdles; namely a moderate edition of the three-year-old maiden at Leopardstown’s festive meeting. However, the only others on the damline to try hurdling, full-brother San Aer and half-brother Advena, achieved little in the sphere. Juveniles trained by Nigel Hawke, regardless of where they were previously trained, seldom perform on their hurdling debuts; their first-time strike-rate standing at just 4.48%. He did win this with Nachi Falls in 2016, a dual winner having his fourth start, and saddled Tiger Roll to make a winning debut at the course in November 2013. Tiger Roll was an exception to many a rule and New Reality being gifted his debut win last term puts this record into further context. This is before one mentions that Hawke has had one win from forty-nine under both codes since June. While the unexposed and clearly capable Just Another One is an interesting recruit for the division, the yard’s recent form and overall record with newcomers tempers enthusiasm on this occasion.

Via Serica bg Stuart Edmunds f6-0-2 (63) 68 j1-0-1 (-) 51 60
Golden Horn (Nayef){14-a}(1.50) 2/2 Douglas Dc 126 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Tramore 2022
Since 2004/2005, three-hundred-and-eight British and Irish trainers have saddled ten or more juvenile hurdlers. Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins have the strongest winner-to-runner rates, while in third place on 55.56% is Paul Nicholls. At the start of the current season, Stuart Edmunds held a share of third place with Paul Nicholls, although the poor debut showings of Rendition and Via Serica have seen his rate drop to a merely impressive 50%. The latter will be attempting to arrest this deterioration and redeem himself by giving the yard its second consecutive win in this race after Addosh took last year’s renewal. Starting his career with Brian Meehan, the entirety of Winter separated Via Serica’s first two outings which came in maidens at Nottingham in October over an extended mile, and Newbury in April over eleven furlongs. He was green on each occasion, finishing nearer last than first with upwards of thirteen lengths between himself and the winner. Thirteen lengths was also the margin of defeat in a ten-furlong Windsor maiden, although being a well stung out field where he was within a couple of lengths of two subsequent winners, it did mark a career best. Stepping up in trip and into handicap company in mid-May, Via Serica was a three length third over a mile and a half at Bath off 64; looking green under pressure but, incidentally, finishing ahead of the season’s leading juvenile to date in Mucuna. Sporting first-time cheekpieces, he filled the same position at Windsor five days later where he led briefly at the distance but while plugging on, did not appear to throw himself into every stride. This would be his last run out of Manton Lodge Stables; a yard whose graduates have a fair winner-to-runner rate of 19.05% in juvenile hurdles, and a lesser 33.33% improvement rate. He was withdrawn prior to passing through Tattersalls at Ascot – the twelve such juveniles leaving Brian Meehan in this fashion won one race from forty-four starts. Via Serica’s debut for Stuart Edmunds (winless on the flat since December 2016) came at Sandown over a mile and six where he never left the rear, drifted when making his challenge at the distance before weakening late on to finish six lengths behind the runner-up (the well-handicapped winner in a different league). Via Serica has a feasible pedigree for the sphere with Golden Horn showing a 25% winner-to-runner rate, cousin Douglas Dc winning a maiden juvenile, and four relatives at 3/2 on the damline (Mikado, Bombyx, National Trust and Freedom Now) all successful over jumps. Via Serica’s hurdles bow came over this course and distance eight weeks ago in a three-runner contest where he was the best treated on official flat ratings. However, there were also concerns over his lack of jumps experience, questionable resolve and poor stable form. Though these concerns were not sufficient in preventing his shortening from 3/1 to 6/4 in the ring, they manifested on the track in no uncertain terms. Tracking the favourite for much of the contest, his early jumping was acceptable save for his clipping the first. However, after flattening the fourth, he had to be ridden into the next and was in trouble when hitting the last in the straight. Though he just about held on along the turn for home, his effort completely flattened out at the three furlong marker from where he was relegated into third, jumped the last two in the fashion of a tired horse and finished completely tailed off. While the Edmunds yard has gone a month without any winners, its runners over the past fortnight have been reaching the frame and it would be safe to assume that they are past the worst of their cold spell. Via Serica should be able to draw a line through his hurdles bow, although he would still need to prove that the experience did not leave a lasting impression and even at his best, his chances would not be profoundly obvious in this company.

Cape Helles bf Donald McCain f5-1-0 (73) 77
Australia (Danehill Dancer){6-e}(0.63) 0.5 Evening Hush 129 2nd Finale Juvenile Hurdle (G1), Chepstow 2016
As far as juvenile hurdling damlines are concerned, Cape Helles possesses one of the more appropriate ones for the division. Half-sister Evening Hush finished second in the Grade One Finale Hurdle, cousin Wolf Prince finished second in the Grade One Spring Juvenile Hurdle, and another cousin, Sonoran Sands, won twice in the sphere. Basalt (2/1), Fleeting Moment (2/2), Sayeh (3/1) and Hired Hand (3/1) are other successful closely-related jumpers. Sire Australia also has a solid record in the division with a 25% winner-to-runner rate from his first three crops. The only newcomer with winning flat form in this line-up, Cape Helles was unraced as a two-year-old and started her career in a Newcastle maiden over a mile in March. Starting at 20/1, she was unsuited by the trip and pace, but emerged with some credit in failing by a short-head to grab third. The following month at Haydock over the same trip, she ran to a similar level but was unable to take advantage of her prominent position at the head of a muddling pace; fading to finish a nine-length seventh behind Nashwa. Cape Helles broke her duck at the third time of asking in a nine-furlong Carlisle maiden towards the end of May. The subject of strong support throughout the day, starting at 17/2 having been 50/1 during the morning, Cape Helles broke well and while having to be niggled along early on, was able to race in a handy position. Turning for home within striking range, she took the lead off the better travelling favourite approaching the final furlong and stayed on to hold her rival by three-quarters of a length at the line. Though Cape Helles showed a likeable attitude in front, the runner-up almost certainly failed to give best. While the remainder of the field were upwards of five lengths behind, the performance did not warrant a rating of 77 and this played out in her two subsequent outings in handicap company. She was not disgraced at Ripon next time as despite her being beaten seven lengths, raced prominently in a strongly run race from which the first and third won next time out. However, she did finish weakly when last seen ten weeks ago when an eight length last of five at Doncaster in a twelve furlong fillies’ contest. Cape Helles spent her flat career with Donald McCain, and is set to become the twelfth such horse to go juvenile hurdling; among which she is the third highest rated behind Navajo Pass (85) and Goobinator (82). Three of the previous eleven won during their juvenile campaigns (the two aforementioned along with the 63 rated Ormesher) and all three would also do so at the first time of asking. Based on the yard’s record with self-trained hurdling newcomers, the ten week absence is not a major concern; even if that record improves with race fitness. Cape Helles has plenty going for her on pedigree and is not harshly treated on these terms. Furthermore, Donald McCain’s record with juvenile newcomers at Market Rasen stands at two wins and three placings from eleven and with the yard absolutely flying at the moment, a good showing would come as no surprise.

Exciting News bf Dan Skelton f4-0-2 (75) 81
Night Of Thunder (Pivotal){9-f}(1.17) 3/2 Whisper Cool 108 1st 3-Y-O Hurdle, Killarney 2010
Similar to the Bolger-Hawke connection, but probably more famous, is that between the Gredleys and Dan Skelton. While its roots potentially began with Rock Of Leon and The Raven Master, each formerly with Michael Bell prior to winning as juveniles for Skelton, the successful connection was showcased at the highest level when Allmankind won at Cheltenham and Chepstow before finishing third in the Triumph. Since then, Stepney Causeway and Too Friendly (ex-George Scott) would become useful multiple winners with only once-raced Nevendon failing to win. In Exciting News, the trend of Gredley horses joining Dan Skelton from Michael Bell is set to continue this term. Exciting News made her racecourse debut in a ten furlong fillies’ novice stakes at Wetherby in April. Racing keenly towards the rear, she was nearer last than first when asked for her effort at the three furlong marker. Though she hung under pressure, the penny did drop inside the final furlong as she made a couple of places to finish runner-up to Lingfield Oaks trial winner Rogue Millennium by a length and a half. The third also went on to win three of her next five outings and a mark surpassing 80 would not be unreasonable for this performance. However, she failed to build on that promise next time in an Ascot maiden where she folded very tamely inside the final two furlongs having subsequently been found in season. Given a five week break, she returned for a fillies’ maiden at Nottingham over an extended mile for which she halved in price to 5/2 through the day before settling at 3/1 in the ring. Racing keenly once again, she tracked the Godolphin pair throughout and while they pulled five clear of Exciting News, she herself was upwards of three and a half lengths ahead of the remainder; although everything in behind was well beaten on its next outing. Exciting News was last seen at the beginning of August making her handicap debut over an extended mile at Beverley. Racing off 77 and with only one behind her in the market at 18/1, she pulled herself into a clear lead which she held to the furlong pole before fading to finish a four-and-a-half-length fifth. Dan Skelton has a fine record in the division overall, with a winner-to-runner rate of 37.93% and a healthy improvement rate of 54.76%. He has also fared well at this venue, counting three winning juveniles from twelve, although the yard has not been busy as of late with its first runner since the seventh of this month finishing weakly at Worcester. Exciting News does not possess the most substantial pedigree, with her sire, Night Of Thunder being largely untested. A son of Dubawi (who as a grandsire has a fair 16.9% winner-to-runner rate, and a weak improvement rate of 21.28%), Night Of Thunder has yet to have winning juvenile, but has had his first winning hurdler, and being of an average height, his overall profile neither obviously positive nor negative at this juncture. The third dam of Exciting News is the granddam of the winning juvenile Whisper Cool, although all other descendants to have tried hurdling have done so without success. On account of her connections and the promise of her Wetherby debut, the decently sized Exciting News provokes interest as a juvenile recruit. However, while Market Rasen can favour front-runners, her free running nature and likely freshness following her absence will go against her at this stage of her education.

Jewel Of Kabeir bf Adrian Paul Keatley f3-0-1 (65) 68
El Kabeir (Lemon Drop Kid){9-e}(2.08) 2/1 Waaheb 146 2nd Future Champions Novice Hurdle (G1), Leopardstown 2012
Adrian Paul Keatley has saddled just one winning juvenile from thirteen, and she would not win until her third outing. His latest runner, Jewel Of Kabeir, has just about the weakest flat form in this field and that is based on a stand out performance last time out. Beaten eighteen lengths on her debut at Wolverhampton last December, she returned towards the end of June to finish a thirteen length eighth of ten in a Thirsk novice stakes over a mile. The latter was not without a modicum of promise, but it was not enough to prevent her going off the 80/1 outsider of five in a similar contest at Pontefract some six weeks ago. Held up in rear, she was still in touch with the field approaching the final furlong and while the winner had bolted clear, Jewel Of Kabeir managed to thread through the pack to grab second in the dying strides, just over five lengths behind the winner. The pace was quite strong but not to the extent that would give a ready explanation for Jewel Of Kabeir’s improvement. While the remainder of the field were all rated in the seventies, it is likely that given how easily the winner scored, most underperformed on the day. First season stallion El Kabeir is from a Scat Daddy/Johannesburg line which has enjoyed little success in the sphere. El Kabir was a graded – rather than top class – miler in America, and while his height of 16.1hh is adequate, his DI of 5.86 is a concern. The damline offers much more encouragement, however, as uncle Waaheb was very useful on his day and the third dam produced three multiple winners in Mutakarrim, Ghaabesh and Daasij as well as the dam of high-class juvenile Power Elite. Jewel Of Kebeir is still unexposed, and if her Pontefract second can be taken at face value then she has the ability to perform at an average level in this division. The distaff side of her pedigree offers further encouragement although with the yard’s record in the division, and its recent form across all racing, Jewel Of Kabeir may be one for the longer term.

Strong prospects
1. The Churchill Lad
Reasonable prospects
2. Cape Helles
Feasible prospects
3. Exciting News
Moderate prospects
4. Just Another One
5. Via Serica
6. Jewel Of Kabeir
Negligible prospects
.

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