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As I expected The Insider is staying put in the USA, transferred from Gordon Elliott’s barn to Keri Brion.
Tomorrow’s Fakenham contest contained too many imponderables for me.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"We must be due a decent juvenile hurdle soon. The standard so far this season, in England at least, has looked very, very weak. No wonder Bachelors has clocked off a bit recently!
It’s the Wensleydale at Wetherby on Friday; that’s normally one of the better early-season juvenile events.
Hopefully BH will be back for that.
The Wensleydale, as Gladders states with his usual gravitas, is when the UK juvenile hurdling scene moves up a gear or two.
Can’t wait.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"An intriguing quartet nonetheless, I feel.
I do hope BH is able to preview it.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I actually think the “rag” Vintage Valley – 8/1 with William Hill but only 11/2 with Bet365 – is the value bet in the Wensleydale.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Juvenile hurdling may move up a gear, as Ian rightly says, but it loses some of the desperation and last-chance-saloon feel of the summer races, which I always find endearing.
The Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle is an integral feature of the early season juvenile calendar, although its history is best described as “varied”. This defining feature has been omnipresent since its inception in 1986 when it superseded the Thorp Arch Novices’ Hurdle; a juvenile event which was invariably split into two divisions. The first renewal saw Qurrat Al Ain lead home Cumbrian Nijo with the pair becoming ordinary handicappers. The next two were then taken by Royal Illusion (won the Victor Ludorum and Anniversary hurdles later that season) and Royal Derbi (won the Punchestown Champion 4YO before eventually finishing second in the 1993 Champion Hurdle). Afforded Grade 2 status in 1990, but relegated to listed class in 2001 the pattern continued unabated with the likes of Swift Sword, Desert Mist, Aviation, Calomeria and Nicky Nutjob emerging victorious in a race that has had some very notable participants. Silver Wedge, Bellator, Kerawi and Quazar did well in earlier renewals while more recently, Grandouet, Sametegal and Sceau Royal trod the Wetherby turf with last year seeing Porticello adding his name to the useful column. The most notable participants this century each finished runner-up in the contest. In 2006, Katchit was beaten by Degas Art before landing the Prestbury, Finesse, Triumph and Anniversary ahead of becoming Champion Hurdler. 2011 runner-up Countrywide Flame filled the same position in the Finale and Anniversary Hurdles as well as winning that season’s Triumph.
The extent to which this season’s participants might follow the aforementioned remains to be seen, and it is difficult to assess at this juncture. Only four runners are set to face the starter and the absences of the two Milton Harris entries and French recruits for Paul Nicholls and Rebecca Menzies make the contest much more winnable. Notwithstanding, those who do line up are all winners over hurdles that, without threatening to take the division by storm, would not be out of place in any decent renewal. The flat form brought into the race is average at best with none able to score under that code. Notwithstanding, all four are by strong sires in the sphere, represent successful trainers and have shown themselves to be able jumpers of hurdles.
A flat, left-handed, galloping track, the West Yorkshire venue’s average winning DIs of 1.20 median, 1.33 mean are close to standard, although these are some twenty points lower than those of the average participant. Furthermore, the clear round rate of 94.63% is one of the lowest in the country and the completion rate of 82.10% also suggests Wetherby offers a good test of a young hurdler’s aptitude. Only one of the participants has made the running in the past, but with him being a course and distance winner, the impetus to repeat those tactics should ensure an honest pace. The going is currently described as good to soft, good in places, and there is a chance of light showers during the morning.
Triumph Odds
Tuddenham Green 50/1Medyaf bg Dan Skelton f4-0-0 (64) 64 j1-1-0 (-) 102 106
Sea The Moon (Rock Of Gibraltar){13-e}(0.78) 3/2 Poet 127 1st 2m½f Maiden Hurdle, Newbury 2012
Juvenile hurdlers who start their careers with John Gosden have a winner to runner rate of 18.10% which is close enough to average. However, only Pied Piper recorded an RPR exceeding 140 during their first campaigns over hurdles and their improvement rate stands at just 21.74%. A half-brother to a Group 2 winner who cost 110,000 guineas as a yearling, Medyaf did not live up to expectations on the flat as he finished nearer last than first on all four flat outings – although his final BHA mark of 64 meant that he left Clarehaven Stables on a lower foundation than most of his ilk. His first two outings last Autumn, at Nottingham and Newcastle, were not without promise as he shaped as though he would improve with age. However, the application of blinkers for the second half of his flat career cultivated a regression in both form and attitude, and he was allowed to leave Gosden for just 9,000 guineas at the Tattersalls February Sale. There, he was purchased by Craig and Laura Buckingham and he would join a Dan Skelton yard with a fine record in the division. His winner to runner rate of 38.20% and improvement rate of 49.44% are above average and his clear round rate of 98.53% is the highest of any trainer with fifty or more juveniles to his name. Medyaf’s pedigree also gives cause for optimism for his new vocation as sire Sea The Moon has a fine winner runner rate of 38.10% headed by The Tide Turns, Tritonic and another Skelton inmate in Allmankind. Jumpers do not immediately appear on the damline, although the third dam produced the dams of useful winner Poet and High Stratos with the talented French chaser Sans Commission appearing at 5/2. Medyaf made his hurdling bow at the start of the month in a Stratford maiden Skelton used to introduce Too Friendly to make a winning debut last season. Opening at 10/3 in the morning, he had drifted out to 9/1 before being sent off the 7/1 fourth favourite of seven. Tracking the leader from the outset, Medyaf was understandably fresh on his first racecourse appearance in nearly eight months, although did not pull particularly hard. He did miss the second, got in close to the fourth and was skewed over the next, but his round of jumping was otherwise decent for a newcomer. The front pair were a long way clear by the time they turned into the straight, and though by no means a certain winner approaching the last, he did appear to be travelling better of the two when La Breille’s fall left him a distance clear. The race had lost much of its depth when the easy going Caesar’s Palace was pulled up quickly after two out, but the form received a boost when La Breille gained compensation in a fillies’ event at Fakenham on Wednesday. Few would be considering the Triumph Hurdle at this juncture, but in a race of unexposed horses of comparable ability, Medyaf is not readily dismissed; particularly given Skelton’s record in the race reads as a winner (Langer Dan in 2019) and two thirds (King d’Argent in 2018 and Cabot Cliffs in 2020 for the same owners) from three runners. However, one concern could be that Medyaf was a tricky ride on the flat, and his being left a long way clear at Stratford deprived observers of the means to assess his resolve under pressure.Mr Freedom bg Sheena West f7-0-0 (53) 57 j4-3-1 (120) 114 112
Sixties Icon (Sayif){9-c}(0.52) 4/1 Zero 128 1st 2m3½f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (112), Ascot 2007
Juveniles that leave Mick Channon for Sheena West have a better record than those who go elsewhere; and the same can be said for where Sheena West sources her juveniles. Her record for those from outside this connection reads as one winner from fourteen. After Fontwell in early September, those moving from West Ilsley to Falmer have an impressive winner-to-runner rate of sixteen from forty. Prior to Mr Freedom’s victory, seven of these winners were rated 53 or less, which afforded encouragement for the latest to make that journey. Mr Freedom cost just £800 as a yearling, and after being beaten eleven lengths at Sandown on his debut last June, was beaten nineteen and fifteen lengths at Kempton and Salisbury before being put away for the winter. In May came his return in a Bath mile handicap off 59 for which he attracted outside support; starting at 10/1 having opened at twice the price in the morning. Pulling hard in the early stages, he struggled for room in the final couple of furlongs and though he only managed an eighth place finish, he was not given a vigorous ride in posting a new career best. He failed to build on that degree of promise in a similar contest at Ripon next time and while traffic issues were something of a feature, he had no such excuses when making no show whatsoever at Windsor next time. Given a two month break, a change of scenery, and a step up to a mile-and-a-half, Mr Freedom ran a considerably better race when returning to Windsor at the start of the month. Settling better on the prominent side of midfield, he was unable to accelerate with the principle as the race developed, but still ran on for a three-and-a-quarter length fourth of ten. His breeding offers mixed messages as the immediate damline is bereft of jumps experience until the winning novice handicapper Zero appears at 4/1, although the fourth dam also has another winner in Kristiansand and her next level of descendants includes the useful sorts London Prize and Categorical. The sire, Sixties Icon, has a solid winner-runner rate of 22.45%, and his strike-rate before October is a healthy 33.33%. Mr Freedom’s hurdling debut came at Fontwell in August, for which he was mercurial in the markets before starting at 6/1. Taking a keen hold while racing at the rear of the field, his jumping, while largely safe, left plenty to be desired as there was not a single hurdle where he was not big, skewed, slow, awkward or any combination of same. It is then to his credit that he was able to make headway into a close enough third, and still look a feasible threat turning for home. This threat was short lived, however, as a lack of pace and fluency saw the leading pair get away just before the last, leaving Mr Freedom to finish a sixteen length third. There was undoubted promise hiding in this performance and the yard’s juvenile strike-rate did jump up from 8.33% to 22.73% between first and second outings. Seventeen days later, all of the above led to Mr Freedom belying the relative lack of enthusiasm in the market to comfortably land 9/1 odds back at the same venue. Taking a firm hold while bringing up the field at a modest tempo, Mr Freedom still showed a tendency to hop and skew at his early flights, but it was much less pronounced than on his debut and he did hurdle quite quickly on occasion. Still bringing up the rear of a tightly bunched field jumping the penultimate flight, he passed a couple of rivals approaching the last where he was within a length of the lead. From there, he had the pace to quickly put the race to bed, winning readily by two, four and seven lengths. Given how the race unfolded, the winning time was far from impressive and little more could be said of the form. The runner-up was an uncompelling debutant and those with experience were below par. His third jumps outing came at Plumpton where he started the steady 10/3 second favourite in a race which looked somewhat stronger on paper. Held up towards the rear, he made minor errors such as skewing somewhat, getting in tight and rather reaching at his hurdles, but apart from being especially awkward at three out, generally went about things efficiently enough. Having made headway on the second circuit, he was caught for toe as the leader pressed on leaving the back, but he was able to reel him in by the last and powered clear up the run in to score by four and twenty-one lengths. Mr Freedom completed his hat trick when returning to Fontwell four weeks ago and though conceding upwards of twelve pounds all round, was still sent off a solid 5/4 favourite. Once again held up towards the rear, Mr Freedom was tight at the majority of his hurdles, but his only real error came when getting too close to the third. Entering the straight, he was within striking distance of the leading pair and travelling much the strongest of the three. His being ridden into the last when upsides the leader was the first time he was asked a question by Marc Goldstein and in response, Mr Freedom needed only pushing on the run-in to score by a comfortable ten lengths. The runner-up subsequently finishing an eleven length fourth off 100 gives a fair indication off the standard of form. Though Mr Freedom would be the most exposed runner in the line-up and would be vulnerable to improvers, he is undoubtedly an admirable sort representing a yard which sent Mohanad to finish third in the 2009 renewal of this race (one of the lesser editions), so a respectable showing would not be unexpected.Tuddenham Green bg Alan King f5-0-2 (70) 76 j1-1-0 (-) 111 116
Nathaniel (New Approach){7-f}(0.53) 2/1 Devilment 150 2nd Anniversary Hurdle (G1), Aintree 2015
Since 2004, Alan King has saddled more winning juvenile hurdlers than anybody else in Britain or Ireland, with his tally of 113 including top class animals in Katchit, Walkon, Sceau Royal, Grumeti, Blazing Bailey and Franchoek to name but a few. Though his strike rate with juveniles at Wetherby is merely a fair 12%, he has saddled Secret Edge (trained by himself on the flat) and Cracker Factory to win this contest as well as sending the aforementioned Katchit and Sceau Royal to finish runner-up. His representative this year is Tuddenham Green; the highest rated flat recruit to the tune of five pounds. Gelded after a lacklustre debut at Haydock last June, he showed enough improvement when sixth and fourth in mile contests at Kempton and Lingfield respectively to warrant an opening BHA mark of 69. Tuddenham Green had been entered in minor juvenile hurdle events during the summer, but connections opted to keep him on the flat for a pair of handicaps. His reappearance came at the end of June for a Haydock handicap over an extended eleven furlongs. Racing keenly towards the rear, he was asked for his effort three furlongs out and though he lacked the turn of foot shown by the front pair (each subsequent winners), he stayed on honestly enough to finish six and a half lengths third of a strung out eight runner field. A month later, he was stepped up to a mile and six for a Sandown handicap, although it did not present the desired stamina test. Held up in touch, Tuddenham Green was keeping tabs on the principals up the straight, but finding himself caught in a pocket, he found himself shuffled to the rear at the distance. Though it would be a stretch to suggest this cost him victory, he did stay on determinedly to keep on for a close third. He was given a ten week break before making an inevitable switch to hurdling for which he is very feasibly bred. Nathaniel has produced a commendable eleven winning juveniles from thirty-three (headed by Zanahiyr, Burning Victory and Navajo Pass), with his progeny boasting a healthy strike rate of 20.69%. His granddam produced the accomplished juvenile hurdler Devilment along with another winner in Nasee, while winning German hurdler Interior Minister appears at 3/2 on the damline. Tuddenham Green’s introduction to hurdling came in the same Chepstow juvenile Alan King won with Katchit, Franchoek and Karezak and gave debuts to Secret Edge and Sceau Royal. Sent off the solid 6/4 favourite of five, he took a keen hold in rear and was tight over the first. Nevertheless, while his enthusiasm continued, he was tidy over the next couple before clipping the fourth. He was caught out by the flattened fifth hurdle, which put him a few lengths behind the field, and he was tight at the first in the straight as well as slightly missing the penultimate flight. Notwithstanding, though still lacking that patent turn of pace, he was staying on strongest of all without straining himself and a clean jump and the last gave him a lead which he extended to nearly three lengths by the line. The winning time compared very favourably against the Free Handicap Hurdle later on the card and the runner-up gave the form a solid look when an arguably unlucky second to another of Alan King’s with a decent looking performance at Kempton. Tuddenham Green is the only runner currently quoted for the Triumph Hurdle, although the 50/1 is probably a fair reflection of his prospects at this juncture. That being said, while this field is comprised of unexposed sorts of reasonable promise, Tuddenham Green has the most substantial profile as per his flat ability, form achieved, trainer, pedigree and scope for further improvement.Vintage Valley grg Donald McCain f3-0-0 (65) 66 j2-1-0 (-) 95 104
Mastercraftsman (Araafa){1-i}(1.50) 2/2 Genuflex 106 2nd Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (L), Wetherby 2021
In 2011, Hollow Tree left Andrew Balding to join Donald McCain for who he won three races as a juvenile including the Grade One Finale Hurdle. Since then, two other juveniles failed to score having made that journey, although Vintage Valley was recently able to break that trend. A thrice raced maiden on the flat, Vintage Valley shaped with some promise on his debut at Haydock in April when running green and lacking the pace to better fifth in a steadily run mile and a half contest. He failed to show on his return to that venue the following month, but probably matched the form of his debut when fifth of eight at Chepstow back in June. After fetching £32,000 at the Tattersalls Ascot Sale in July, Vintage Valley made his hurdling debut at Sedgefield last month in the same contest McCain introduced Genever Dragon to make a winning debut two years ago. On breeding, there is plenty of encouragement in the pedigree for the game. Mastercraftsman is one of the most successful sires of juveniles and along with Genuflex (runner-up in this race last year), he is also a cousin of Gendarme and Good Prince, as well as a nephew of Ginistrelli. Starting at 10/1, he was much easier in the market of the two Fyffe runners, although the other was rated eighteen pounds superior on the flat and already had a run over hurdles to his name. Leading early before getting a lead in the straight first time round, he disputed going out onto the second circuit before a tight jump at the last in the back saw him lose ground. Well behind by the time they turned for home, Vintage Valley merely got the better of a scrap with a 100/1 outsider for a twenty-nine length fourth. Apart from tight jumps at the first, and the same flight on the second circuit, he posted a fair round of jumping; albeit with a tendency to go towards his left. The bare form of Vintage Valley’s debut is modest, but he shaped as though he ought to improve in due course. Making his second outing over this course and distance sixteen days ago, Vintage Valley was able to get off the mark. On paper, the race had looked like a match between an intriguing Milton Harris newcomer in Highland Frolic, and the nine hurdles at the course. Nevertheless, as the former drifted markedly, Vintage Valley’s price contracted from a morning show of 13/2 to 11/4 at the off. In the event, Vintage Valley set a solid pace, jumped very neatly save for hitting the fifth, had all bar Highland Frolic in trouble before reaching the end of the back and had shaken off that rival by the turn for home. Vintage Valley was kept up to his work and came home seventeen lengths to the good. The winning time was decent enough and taking Vintage Valley in isolation, his performance was visually very good. However, it is worth noting that despite the fact there were no fallers in the race, the standard of jumping was lamentable with all five rivals making errors at virtually every hurdle. Another factor to consider is that since 2004, thirty-two horses have come out of that race to contest the Wensleydale, yet only Aviation (eighth in the 2005 running of the “trial”) went on to win a decidedly poor renewal of the race. The three winners who would finish runner-up in the listed race did so without achieving RPRs exceeding 107. Vintage Valley still has several positives in his profile such as his breeding, his in-form trainer, the fact that he has the second highest rating on the flat, and most pertinently, the likelihood that he will enjoy another uncontested lead over this course and distance. However, the closing sectional last time suggests a considerable expenditure of energy was made, the bare form is probably the weakest on balance and though the pater McCain won this race in 2004 with Calomeria, young Donald is without a winner in six attempts.Strong prospects
1. Tuddenham Green
Reasonable /Feasible prospects
2. Mr Freedom
3. Vintage Valley
4. Medyaf
Moderate prospects
.
Negligible prospects
.WB BH – great stuff.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Thank you :)
I wasn’t “gone” per se, more busy/tired. I was planning on doing the Fakenham hurdle but just didn’t have the energy on the day… Which is annoying as I actually “fancied” La Breille. Such is life…
I have thrown something together for the junior NH hurdle
Wetherby (Junior Hurdle) – 28th October – Diatribe/Preview Notes
Haven’t had chance to read your article in full yet, BH, but my immediate thought upon reading the background to all this intro is: if they want 3yo hurdlers to develop quicker why not have 3yo hurdles start even earlier than they already do (June) as in France?
As it stands, Derby Day in June is two months earlier than it was not so long ago when the season started in August.
As for these Junior bumpers aiding progression, have they ever heard of Flat Maidens?
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"An eventful contest to say the least.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"That’s really frustrating!!
Mr Freedom appeared to be going the best but he was done no favours by Medyaf and you could see what was going to happen fifty yards before the hurdle.
The winner will no doubt pick up another race or two but overall I don’t think the form will be that great.
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