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Looks to be handed to fast forward on a plate here.
Mucuna carries a seven pound penalty into the race and that may be more than enough to stop her, as she has to run off levels here with the boys. Bukela fell when poised to strike and recovery soon after a fall has a lower strike rate than other circumstances as you pointed out.
Recent wins under Fast forward’s belt too.
The other key factor is the yard and schooling will have been long in the making for this runner.Ha Long Bay for me – good luck all.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Hi Sam
I entirely agree.
When I saw last night’s show of 11/4, I thought that would not last long. Yet he’s now been pushed out to 10/3 which makes no sense on publicly available information. Alan King might send one over hurdles when flat options have dried up, but TF and RPR are both under the impression that he is six pounds well in on his BHA rating. Plus, Alan King likes to have a half decent one for the summer and while Tuddenham Green has had an entry, he hasn’t been seen since November.
Mucuna won’t be helped by the penalty, although the typical improvement from first to second outing will offset that somewhat. The bigger concern is class since by proxy and against the clock, the Hexham and Aintree form looks little better than what she achieved on the flat.
The manner in which Bukela fell could also be a concern as he was cautions over his early jumps and his giving two-out too much air was what ended his race. He may have been schooled extensively in the interim but jumping at home and jumping in race conditions are two different things.
Hi Ian
He’s been the one for money. A case can be made. Not entirely sure about the trainer but if his is a gambling yard (and he has had a couple of winners when the money’s been down) then there could be something to it.Fillies first and second – that 7lb gender allowance….
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Fast Forward jumped too big for his own good, but at least he beat the price…
Winner came from nowhere although the trainer’s record at Market Rasen is something to behold.
That does make it three from three for the fillies this season. However, this is not a general trend that plays out over the long term given that they have a 6.74% strike rate overall (compared to the 10.42% for geldings).
There could be something said for the time of year, although these figures do not factor in field sizes which may have a bit of an impact;-
Thanks for that, BH.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"An intriguing contest at Newton Abbot on Tuesday coming up next.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"It’s alright I guess?
You’re welcome for the stat thing btw. If you have something you think may be worth looking at, I am happy to try and pull something together when possible.
Newton Abbot – 21st June – Preview
The first three juvenile hurdles this season have all gone to the fillies. This is more a statistical cluster than systematic trend which plays out in the long term and at Newton Abbot, Intriguing Lady will be the sole vanguard for her sex against Dicktate and four other geldings. Held for the first time last season, the only other juvenile contest held at Newton Abbot during June was won by the classy Barizan in 2009. Otherwise, while good juveniles such as Cracker Factory, Leoncavallo and Hiconic, along with eventually useful sorts in Vosne Romanee, Fire Dragon and Olofi, have graced the Westernmost track in the country during the summer, such events are typically modest affairs with the average winner’s seasonal RPR being just short of 110. This maiden juvenile is rather par for the course as the sole participant with experience failed to impress first time, and although a couple of the newcomers have fair flat form for the time of year, neither have substantial profiles. A tight, left-handed track, Newton Abbot’s average winning DIs of 1.40 median, 1.51 mean make it one of the least demanding in the country insofar as stamina is concerned. Jumping is a slightly different matter as its clear round rate of 94.31% is lower than average, and this drops to 91.32% for newcomers which ranks it the ninth lowest in Britain and Ireland. Newton Abbot is also one of the less predictable racecourses with the mean ISP of 8.10 also the ninth lowest. The going is currently good with the ground being regularly watered to maintain.Alphonse Le Grande bg Ed Dunlop f14-1-3 (68) 75
Sea The Stars (Zoffany){1-n}(1.15) 3/1 Darley Sun 130 1st 2m6f Novices’ Hurdle, Stratford 2013
The Dunlop name is synonymous with flat racing with Harry and Ed following in their father’s footsteps by landing numerous top races at home and abroad. However, while the pater John was responsible for introducing Wahiba Sands to the jumps world, his sons have had such an impact on the game. Harry made it one from sixty-six at Uttoxeter last December, while Ed has yet to score in three attempts dating back to May 1989. The latter has had a fair spell on the flat recently and will be hoping Alphonse Le Grande can help him to draw level with his brother. One pound shy of bringing the highest flat rating into the race, Alphonse Le Grande is also the most experienced, and most accomplished runner in this field. A veteran of fourteen starts, he made his debut last July at Newmarket, finishing no closer than nine lengths to the winner in three outings. Switching to handicaps and stepping up to a mile, he was beaten less than four lengths off 67 at Wolverhampton and following a gelding operation and two month break, got to within half-a-length of breaking his duck at Kempton. The maiden victory finally came his way at the ninth attempt, just before Christmas in a Wolverhampton nursery over an extended nine furlongs off 67. Since then, his tally has not been doubled, nor has he has reached the frame in five subsequent outings; one on New Year’s Eve and four this spring at distances up to a mile and a half. Nevertheless, despite looking ponderous on occasion, he had been running to a consistent level while shaping as though he would thrive over further (Being such an anomaly, his last appearance, which saw him finish tailed off at Beverley having never settled, may well be forgiven). While damsire Zoffany was never tried beyond a mile, and dam Dolce Strega won a Group 3 over seven furlongs, stamina is still a key feature in Alphonse Le Grande’s pedigree. Sea The Stars has a fine winner to runner rate of 32.26% in the sphere while granddam is a half-sister to three winning jumpers over twenty furlongs and further; including the 2009 Cesarewitch winner, Darley Sun. Neither ability nor stamina are matters for concern, although even forgiving the latest outing, the trainer’s non-existent record in the division and the possibility that this race may be too sharp are not readily ignored.Beerenberg bg Brian Barr f9-0-2 (56) 61
National Defense (Evasive){14-b}(1.40) 3/1 Tsar Noir 57.0 2nd 4500m Grand Steeple-Chase Ville de Deauville (L,52.0), Clairefontaine 2019
Initially with Joseph O’Brien, Beerenberg finished tenth at Cork last May, and eleventh at Naas in August before fetching 2,500 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale. There was a hint of promise on his British debut when fourth in a Kempton maiden before rounding off the year with a tepid performance on his handicap debut at Southwell. 2022 began with a second placing in a Wolverhampton seller over an extended mile where, along with finishing a length and a half ahead of Intriguing Lady, was arguably (but not decidedly) unlucky not to finish closer. Beerenberg’s four subsequent outings all came in handicap company and while his rating dropped to 55, he was never worse than midfield and his third at Chelmsford over ten furlongs saw his mark increase by a pound. Brian Barr has yet to have a winning juvenile from five and none of the four with more than one jumps race to their name was able to match their flat form. National Defense is a first-season sire and his credentials are not outstanding. Less than half of Invincible Spirit’s stallions have produced winners in the sphere, and National Defense is not the tallest at 16.0hh. Nevertheless, he did win over a mile at two and along with being a cousin of Adayar, is from the family of Aachen and Aalim. Beerenberg’s damline also affords distant glimmers of encouragement as the granddam is a half-sister to multiple winner Bright Sparky, and capable French handicap chaser Tsar Noir. Beerenberg is improving at his own rate, although he is still around a stone short of the best flat form and his head carriage could count against him along with his trainer’s negligible form in the sphere.Captain Square chg Tom Lacey f6-0-2 (69) 74
Sir Percy (Duke Of Marmalade){1-m}(0.33) 3/1 Overturn 167 2nd Champion Hurdle, Cheltenham 2012
By Sir Percy (Knight Salute, winner-to-runner rate of 31.82%) and from the family of Chocala (2/1), Fisher Bridge (3/1) and Overturn (3/1), Captain Square has the most interesting pedigree in this line-up. Moreover, while he was a six-race maiden on the flat for Andrew Balding, his official rating 69 is the highest brought into the race. His first three outings all came over seven furlongs last July where he followed a midfield finish at Sandown (behind Derby also-ran Sonny Liston) with third (behind 1000 Guineas runner-up Prosperous Voyage) and fourth (behind Royal Lodge winner Royal Patronage) place finishes at Epsom. Captain Square got no closer five lengths to the aforementioned, but he did shape as though further would suit and his allotted mark of 72 was not unduly harsh. However, following an eight month break and a gelding operation, this potential did not play out in practice as Captain Square failed to make any real impression in a pair of twelve furlong handicaps in April. At Southwell, he failed to settle in a falsely run contest, but had no such excuse next time at Lingfield where he beat only one home. Captain Sqaure’s sights were lowered for his return to turf at Leicester and while all but one of his rivals were rated higher, his receiving weight all round and being much the least exposed saw him sent off the even money favourite. However, he failed to settle once again and although he led momentarily at the distance, was clear second best on the day. Following the race, Captain Square was claimed for £12,000 to join a Tom Lacey yard with two winners from ten in the sphere; both scoring at the first time of asking. Andrew Balding has supplied 108 juveniles to the division since 2004/05 and twenty of those were winners; including the likes of Knight Salute, Hollow Tree and Flaxen Flare. However, the improvement rare of 22.78% is a low one and of the six who were bought out of selling and claiming races, not one win was achieved from their twenty-eight runs combined. Captain Square has plenty going for him on his flat ability, pedigree and trainer’s respectable first time record. However, he is another who may find this contest on the sharp side and that he found himself in a seller while under the care Andrew Balding could be ominous.Dicktate bg Roger Teal f5-0-0 (62) 64
Lawman (Pivotal){3-d}(1.20) 2/2 Catherine Chroi 46 12th 3yo Maiden Hurdle , Fairyhouse 2021
After finishing well beaten on his debut at Kempton last August, Dicktate was not disgraced during the Autumn over ten furlongs at Bath and Goodwood; for all that he was beaten a combined fifteen lengths. However, his season ended with a tailed off eighth of nine at Newmarket and the revised mark of 64 still looked beyond him on his sole start this year when he was beaten twelve lengths at Salisbury with no apparent excuses to be made. Roger Teal’s jumps strike rate of 4% drops to 0% when isolating juvenile hurdlers with eight horses contributing to his zero from seventeen strike rate. The credentials of his sire, Lawman, are better as while his offspring are seldom better than ordinary, their winner-to-runner rate of 20.37% is solid. The damline is more patchy as the closest winning jumper, First Man, appears at 4/3.Hill Station bg Gary Moore f4-0-0 (56) 59
Born To Sea (Tobougg){11-d}(1.00) 1/0 Fulani’s 10th 3200m 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Compiegne 2011
On BHA ratings, Hill Station is the worst treated on these terms with his mark of 56 a fair reflection of a lacklustre four-race career. Three outings last year saw him finish no closer than eighth to the winner and his handicap debut on his seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton five weeks ago resulted in an eleven length eighth. Unfancied in the market, he was not sharp enough to get involved in the mile and a half contest and was allowed to coast home in the straight as he passed beaten horses. There is little encouragement on the distaff side either as his dam, the only relative with hurdles experience, finished well beaten as a three-year-old in France. Nevertheless, there are elements of encouragement in Hill Station’s profile. His sire, Born To Sea (Aspire Tower, A Wave Of The Sea) has a solid winner to runner rate of 23.33% and his improvement rate of 50% is the strongest of the sires represented here. Gary Moore’s winner-to-runner rate of 36.57%, is much the strongest in this field and his record in Newton Abbot juveniles stands at 40%. Moreover, his first-time strike-rate of 19.25% is well above average and interestingly, when isolating those he trained on the flat himself, his first-time record at the track is four winners from four; the horses in question carrying BHA ratings of 68, 62, 59 and 59 again. Hill Station has to leave his flat form well behind, even though he was tenderly ridden on his reappearance during a time when the yard was coming out of a cold spell. In a contest where the leading contenders have shadows hanging over their profiles, Gary Moore’s record with his sort could be telling.Intriguing Lady bf Nigel Hawke f12-0-3 (50) 66 j1-0-0 (-) 58 72
Fascinating Rock (Invincible Spirit){9-e}(1.13) 2/1 Arthurian 87 1st 2m½f Juvenile Selling Hurdle, Stratford 2008
Along with twelve flat outings to her name, Intriguing Lady is the most experienced hurdler set to face the starter by virtue of her running at Hexham early this month. She was formerly trained by Mark Johnston who, since 2005, has been the most prolific supplier of juvenile hurdles with 212 former inmates of Kingsley House taking up the vocation. For context, Mick Channon is next on the list with just three others reaching triple digits. Of those 212, fifty were winners, giving a healthy rate of 23.58%, although less than a third would improve on what they had shown for Johnston. The latter factor would be a matter of concern for Intriguing Lady whose early promise was fleeting and has been supplanted by disappointment. Her debut came at Ayr last August where, sporting a hood, she finished second of four behind a fair and experienced rival and ahead of a pair that have subsequently achieved little. Running green and down the field on her next two starts, she posted her career best on her handicap debut in a seven-furlong Newcastle nursery in October off 65. She was arguably unlucky when sixth in a Chelmsford claimer on her seventh and final start as a two-year-old, but on her first four starts of 2022, finished last in a handicap, last in a claimer, third in a seller won by a 54 rated animal, then eighth of nine in a Southwell handicap. Intriguing Lady was last seen finishing midfield in a Wolverhampton handicap where, sporting her fourth form of headgear, refused to settle before weakening late on. After this final outing, Intriguing Lady went to the Tattersalls Ascot March Sale where she commanded just £2,000. Such an appraisal is not inherently damning to a young hurdler’s prospects, however, as five of the thirty-four juveniles to have left Mark Johnston’s at public auction for less than £5,000 would be winners. Her new handler, Nigel Hawke, has a respectable record in the sphere with a 19.70% winner to runner rate that increases to 25.71% with flat sourced horses. The lion’s share of this success come from those from Jim Bolger’s with seven of the ten such horses winning. Indeed, the winner-to-runner rate for those not trained by Jim Bolger drops to 8%. Furthermore, Nigel Hawke’s juveniles invariable improve for experience with his first-time strike rate being a mere 4.62%, and second time rate just 5.88%. Fascinating Rock’s record is below average by general standards with his sole winner from eight being the Joseph O’Brien trained Faron, and his clear round rate of 81.82% being low by any measure. Intriguing Lady’s uncle did win a juvenile hurdle, albeit a weak Stratford seller, and apart from minor winner Manjaam at 3/2, jumping prowess on the damline is negligible before reaching Mengli Khan at 4/2. Drifting from 9/1 to 14/1 at Hexham, all concerns manifested in the contest itself as she raced keenly, made errors at most flights before weakening tamely on leaving the back and finishing well beaten. Some experience is better than none, the sharper test might suit and the yard came close to breaking its dry run with a neck second last week. However, considerable improvement would still be required for her to feature strongly here.Strong prospects
1. Hill Station
Reasonable prospects
2. Captain Square
3. Alphonse Le Grande
Feasible Prospects
.
Moderate prospects
4. Beerenberg
5. Intriguing Lady
6. Dicktate
Negligible prospects
.Brilliant as always.
Captain Square for me.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Why you haven’t been offered a column in a racing publication yet is beyond me. Excellent write up again and I’m with you on Hill Station. Moore stable can’t be ignored at the track with juveniles. Happy to take a chance at 7s.
Hill Station as short as 5/1 from 12/1 at Oddschecker this evening.
When the great man speaks, the market MOVES.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Thank you TYT
When I was at Hexham, Tommo brought me into the winners’ enclosure, put a microphone in front of me and had me talk about what I had written on the pedigrees. It took me two sentences to realise that my work does not have mainstream appeal!Hi Ian
Now down to 11/4. Either it’s a case of the market readjusting, or he wins head-in-chest.12/1 to 11/4 – this is the sheer POWER of the written word of TRF’s Juvenile Hurdler (and so much more besides) guru Bachelors Hall aka the quite superbly-named Harchibald’s Sense Of Urgency on Twitter.
Can’t wait for this contest down in Devon later today!
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Bachelor’s; as Hemingway said ‘Know how complicated it is and then state it simply.’ I was a columnist for many years, and I think your commercial viability suffers from excessive detail.
Like other TRF members, I greatly relish your posts, but for the average reader……Well written BH
Have Your CV ready. Unless they really are STUPID the racing post will be calling you soon.Hill station
And
Captain square
Have this between them, with the Moore yard likely to improve their runner to win first time out.
Intriguing Lady almost by default for third…
A reverse forecast the first two.
Marginal preference for Hill station and a win bet. Intriguing Lady third in two tiny trifectas?Hollow victory for me, but a brilliant effort from BH – 12/1 overnight to 2/1 favourite and falls when clear two out with the race at his absolute mercy.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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