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That’s typical of the way things have been going for me for as long as i can remember. Apologies for putting the mockers on your bragging rights BH
Please can we have eight runners!
Intriguing Lady each way was tempting but not with six runners and ‘defaulted’ into second thanks to the loose horse. Deserved but highly unlikely! Another great write up. In depth and informative.
For goodness sake BH please do not change your style for anything.
It was Goshen in the Triumph Hurdle all over again.
I think a few bets went up in smoke today too.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Three of the four at Newton Abbot tomorrow are fillies and I think Free Chakartre is the one to be with.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Nothing new to learn tomorrow, really.
Today’s Irish juvenile maiden at Tipperary looks a fun puzzle to solve. The flat ratings on offer are no better than those seen in the British equivalents so far. Charlie Luciano appeals most on breeding. He opened at 10s and has been hammered into 7/2. Second best on breeding looks to be Tory Reel who is into 15/2 from double figures. I am no Bachelors Hall though
I think the echoes caused by the sound of my soul being utterly obliterated have just finished reverberating. Tomorrow’s race offers no potential of the glory that comes with highlighting a horse right before a huge plunge and a day ahead of it winning how it likes… But it’s still a race I guess…
NEWTON ABBOT – 1st July – Preview
Four runners are set to face the starter in the latest instalment of the juvenile hurdles; the second consecutive one to take place at Newton Abbot. Given that the bulk of what could be written about these participants has already been written in previous previews, and that my energy levels are quite minimal, I am going to be quite lazy on this one. Essentially, I will post their titles, most recent profiles, and add onto them an overview of subsequent performances and anything that may be useful in the context of this contest. Hopefully, this will not become a habit but, out of necessity, it will have to be utilised today.Good juveniles such as Cracker Factory, Leoncavallo and Hiconic, along with eventually useful sorts in Vosne Romanee, Fire Dragon and Olofi, have graced the Westernmost track in the country during the summer. However, as a rule, such events are typically modest affairs with the average winner’s seasonal RPR being just short of 110. This particular juvenile was first held when opening the delayed 2020 season and was taken by Hiconic who ruled that particular summer. Last year’s renewal produced four subsequent winners, although only fourth placed Koi Dodville could be considered above average. Connections of Koi Dodville are represented here by Free Chakarte; one of two previous winners in the line-up. The remaining half of the field has shown little to date.
A tight, left-handed track, Newton Abbot’s average winning DIs of 1.40 median, 1.51 mean make it one of the least demanding in the country insofar as stamina is concerned. Jumping is a slightly different matter as its clear round rate of 94.03% is lower than average. Newton Abbot is also one of the less predictable racecourses with the mean ISP of 8.10 also the ninth lowest. The going is currently good, all intended watering has been completed, and no further rain is expected before post time.
Beerenberg bg Brian Barr f9-0-2 (56) 61 j1-0-0 (-) 54 68
National Defense (Evasive){14-b}(1.40) 3/1 Tsar Noir 57.0 2nd 4500m Grand Steeple-Chase Ville de Deauville (L,52.0), Clairefontaine 2019
Preview for Newton Abbot 21st June
Initially with Joseph O’Brien, Beerenberg finished tenth at Cork last May, and eleventh at Naas in August before fetching 2,500 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale. There was a hint of promise on his British debut when fourth in a Kempton maiden before rounding off the year with a tepid performance on his handicap debut at Southwell. 2022 began with a second placing in a Wolverhampton seller over an extended mile where, along with finishing a length and a half ahead of Intriguing Lady, was arguably (but not decidedly) unlucky not to finish closer. Beerenberg’s four subsequent outings all came in handicap company and while his rating dropped to 55, he was never worse than midfield and his third at Chelmsford over ten furlongs saw his mark increase by a pound. Brian Barr has yet to have a winning juvenile from five and none of the four with more than one jumps race to their name was able to match their flat form. National Defense is a first-season sire and his credentials are not outstanding. Less than half of Invincible Spirit’s stallions have produced winners in the sphere, and National Defense is not the tallest at 16.0hh. Nevertheless, he did win over a mile at two and along with being a cousin of Adayar, is from the family of Aachen and Aalim. Beerenberg’s damline also affords distant glimmers of encouragement as the granddam is a half-sister to multiple winner Bright Sparky, and capable French handicap chaser Tsar Noir. Beerenberg is improving at his own rate, although he is still around a stone short of the best flat form and his head carriage could count against him along with his trainer’s negligible form in the sphere.Supplement
Available at 12/1 in the morning, Beerenberg was steady in the ring and started the 8/1 fourth favourite of six. Held up towards the rear, he was not a complete natural to jumping as he was given to hopping, skewing and steadying at numerous hurdles. While the leading pair were out of reach by the time he made some headway on the turn for home, he did jump the penultimate flight in third position. However, it is concerning that he attempted to pull himself up when hampered by a faller and his twenty-three length last of four finishers is reflective of his ability and aptitude.Free Chakarte bf David Pipe f6-2-1 (32.0) 63 j2-1-1 (-) 90 98
Highland Reel (Pivotal){13-e}(0.82) 2/1 Libeccio 126 1st 2m4½f Handicap Hurdle, Plumpton 2016
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/free-chakarte
Preview for Hexham 4th June
David Pipe won this race in 2010 with Lucky Quay, and last year with Koi Dodville; who had been bought out of a French claimer on his previous start. While Koi Dodville cost the same connections €14,506 after finishing second at Saint-Cloud, French Chakarte was slightly pricier at €17,001 following her win at Fontainebleau thirty-eight days ago. The road to Fontainebleau began last June with a staying-on third in a 1400m newcomers race at La Teste de Buch under the care of Simone Brogi. Disappointing on her return to the venue the following month, Free Chakarte was switched to Christophe Ferland’s yard and was next seen at Toulouse in March over 2100m where she finished in midfield; fading having led to the furlong marker. Later that month, a switch to handicapping (off a valeur of 33 (72.6) and more patient tactics back over a mile at La Teste failed to pay off as she got very warm and finished well beaten. Free Chakarte was then dropped to claiming company which saw her finally get off the mark at Royan in a 1600m contest on souple ground worth €8,000. Initially setting the pace, she slotted behind the leaders going into the back before regaining the lead turning for home and fending off a better travelling rival to win by three-quarters of a length. She conceded five-and-a-half kilos to the 29.0 rated runner-up and was nearly nine pounds better than the fifty-six rated third. The form has not been well advertised since, but it would still be worth a rating in the mid-high sixties. Later in April, Free Chakarte completed the double at Fontainebleau in a 2000m claimer worth more than twice the Royan contest. Stalking the leader from the outset, she was asked for her effort at the distance and though her immediate response was to wander under pressure, she straightened out inside the final furlong and had the measure of her rivals to the tune of a decisive length at the finish. She was getting weight from the first three to follow her home, but with them all rated between 30.0 (66) and 34.0 (74.8), another mark in the mid-high sixties would not be wide of the mark. Two of the nine juveniles formerly trained by Christophe Ferland were winners with each also able to score on their first runs in Britain. David Pipe is not shy about buying juveniles from French claimers and five of the twelve sourced in this fashion were winners; giving a winner runner rate of 41.67% which compares favourably to the 20.45% for all other trainers. While three of these would take a few runs to find their mark, the most recent pair – Adagio and Koi Dodville – did score at the first time of asking. Free Chakarte’s sire, Highland Reel, is one of two in this contest having their first forays in National Hunt racing and is also a globetrotting son of Galileo. However, while Mondialiste leaned towards the mile end of middle-distances, Highland Reel won five times over a mile and a half including a King George and a Coronation Cup. Highland Reel is the shorter of the two, measuring at 16.0¼hh, but despite his Antipodean flat heritage, is a 3/3 relative of Starspangledbanner; a sire emerging as rather adept with juvenile hurdlers. While preferring livelier ground as a racehorse, Highland Reel is getting winners on soft. All the same, as a probable source of stamina with good ground ability, Highland Reel has the attributes to enjoy success with summer jumpers. The distaff side of Free Chakarte’s pedigree also has some potential for the sphere as evidenced by uncle Libeccio who finished second in the juvenile handicap at Sandown before winning fairly useful hurdles over middle distances. Though unlikely to set the scene alight, Free Chakarte has less questions to answer than her opponents here and comes into the race with a solid chance.Supplement
Free Chakarte shortened from 13/8 to 6/5 in the Hexham ring and was ultimately the only horse in the race. Sent to the front from flagfall, she posted a decent round of jumping with her only errors coming when skewing over the fifth, clipping the sixth and being untidy over the last when a very long way clear of her rivals. There is little to say about the form, particularly as the only seemingly feasible threat fell at the penultimate flight, and the time compared to the other races over the distance on the card was modest. Nevertheless, she was eased inside the final furlong and needed to do little more than required of her on the day. She made a quick reappearance at Aintree six days later and, in what looked no stronger a contest than at Hexham, was sent off the 2/5 favourite. However, while securing the lead was done quite easily, she did not settle quite so well as her first outing and her jumping also declined by a degree or two. Free Chakarte did trade as low as 1.29 in-running and was still leading on the bridle jumping two out, but an untidy jump at the last saw her concede the lead and she was relegated to third inside the final hundred yards. The most obvious explanation – that the race came too soon after Hexham – is probably the most plausible one and having enjoyed a three-week break, she will be the freshest coming into this contest. Moreover, she is weighted to reverse placing with her Aintree victor, Mucuna, and with the sharper Newton Abbot looking to suit her better than the aforementioned, not to mention her being the most apparent pace angle and her win over a mile in France, her prospects look solid.Mucuna bf Milton Harris f8-1-0 (49) 55 j1-1-0 (-) 86 94
Guiliani (Gold Away){14-b}(0.89) 2/1 Capellini 98 1st 2m Handicap Hurdle (93), Plumpton 2013
Preview for Market Rasen 17th June
Prior to his forced sabbatical, Milton Harris was no slouch when it came to juvenile hurdlers; saddling Modul to win the Grade 2 Summit and Finesse Hurdles in 2003/04 and subsequently guiding Gulf Punch (rated 45 and claimed for £5000), Pseudonym (also claimed for £5000), Rosie’s Glory (rated 60) and Moonfleet (rated 57) to the winners’ enclosure. Nevertheless, since his glorious return to the shores of Hoofiana, Harris has proven himself in no uncertain terms with an excellent winner to runner record of ten from twenty capped by last season’s hugely admirable Knight Salute. He has started the current season as he ended the last by winning a juvenile hurdle at Aintree with the 49 rated Mucuna. Her first five outings, commencing last October, came on the all-weather; starting at triple digit prices on each occasion with her best effort coming with a midfield finish in a mile Handicap at Kempton off 46. However, the switch to turf and a step up to ten furlongs saw her get off the mark at Salisbury back in April. Held up in midfield and racing widest of all, she was asked for her effort half a mile from home. It took a while for her to move through the gears, but she did run on strongest of all; taking it up in the final hundred yards and winning by three quarters of a length. The field finished in a heap but while the form amounts to little, Mucuna was clearly the best on the day. She was unable to follow up in a couple of Bath handicaps off 50 during May, finishing fourth on both occasions, but it was apparent that the track did not see her to best effect. The switch to hurdling came last week at Aintree and while she was backed from 20/1 into 4/1 second favourite, this was not a clandestine move as there was plenty of evidence for a good showing in a weak race. Although her rating is a low one, Milton Harris, since his return, has trained Romeo’s Bond (55) to win, and Global Agreement (56) to place first time. Mucuna’s pedigree was also feasibly conducive as Guiliani (another first-season sire) is a nephew of Getaway and the damline contains winners Capellini (2/1), listed class handicapper Beringneyev (3/1), Mahogany Blaze (4/3) and Petit Mouchoir (5/5). Held up last of four, in a race ran at a galop comparable to the handicap on the card, Mucuna was novicey over the first three flights as she was steady and awkward over one and two and jumped left while leaving her hind legs in the third. Nevertheless, she was more fluent thereafter and though behind her two remaining rivals when turning for home, was close up and ultimately the last to come off the bridle. Despite being squeezed out at the final flight, she took the lead in a matter of strides and with the rail to help, ran out a decisive and enthusiastic three-length winner. All told, she did not have to improve on her flat form to land the spoils and she is in deeper waters here if her opponents run to scratch. Notwithstanding, her willingness and proven hurdling ability still count for something and with the yard in decent form, Mucuna should put up a respectable showing.Supplement
Though very well supported ahead of her Aintree bow, the market was rather lukewarm on her chances as she drifted from a morning 6/4 to 11/4 at the off. Held up off the pace, by some distance at stages, Mucuna’s standard of jumping was just below that of her debut. Having made headway into a threatening position rounding the turn for home, she was caught for toe as the race developed and a pair of awkward jumps over the last two flights did her no favours. The run-in at Market Rasen is the best part of two furlongs so she had plenty of time to put a strong finishing burst together. However, while she managed to eventually grab second in front of the stands, there was still over four lengths between herself and the winner at the line. The contest looked hotter than at Aintree but the prize went to the rank outsider and as few of her rivals really took to hurdles, the performance can only be regarded as a downgrade. Furthermore, Mucuna also hinted at a preference to jumping to her right, and while this was not a problem at Aintree, it could be one at Newton Abbot if symptomatic of an ingrained physiological issue. Mucuna has already beaten Free Chakarte and although the latter is better weighted, this could be offset by her rider’s claim. Notwithstanding, the characteristics of Newton Abbot do give weight to the argument that the Aintree placings can be reversed.Intriguing Lady bf Nigel Hawke f12-0-3 (50) 66 j2-0-1 (-) 61 69
Fascinating Rock (Invincible Spirit){9-e}(1.13) 2/1 Arthurian 87 1st 2m½f Juvenile Selling Hurdle, Stratford 2008
Preview for Newton Abbot 21st June
Along with twelve flat outings to her name, Intriguing Lady is the most experienced hurdler set to face the starter by virtue of her running at Hexham early this month. She was formerly trained by Mark Johnston who, since 2005, has been the most prolific supplier of juvenile hurdles with 212 former inmates of Kingsley House taking up the vocation. For context, Mick Channon is next on the list with just three others reaching triple digits. Of those 212, fifty were winners, giving a healthy rate of 23.58%, although less than a third would improve on what they had shown for Johnston. The latter factor would be a matter of concern for Intriguing Lady whose early promise was fleeting and has been supplanted by disappointment. Her debut came at Ayr last August where, sporting a hood, she finished second of four behind a fair and experienced rival and ahead of a pair that have subsequently achieved little. Running green and down the field on her next two starts, she posted her career best on her handicap debut in a seven-furlong Newcastle nursery in October off 65. She was arguably unlucky when sixth in a Chelmsford claimer on her seventh and final start as a two-year-old, but on her first four starts of 2022, finished last in a handicap, last in a claimer, third in a seller won by a 54 rated animal, then eighth of nine in a Southwell handicap. Intriguing Lady was last seen finishing midfield in a Wolverhampton handicap where, sporting her fourth form of headgear, refused to settle before weakening late on. After this final outing, Intriguing Lady went to the Tattersalls Ascot March Sale where she commanded just £2,000. Such an appraisal is not inherently damning to a young hurdler’s prospects, however, as five of the thirty-four juveniles to have left Mark Johnston’s at public auction for less than £5,000 would be winners. Her new handler, Nigel Hawke, has a respectable record in the sphere with a 19.70% winner to runner rate that increases to 25.71% with flat sourced horses. The lion’s share of this success come from those from Jim Bolger’s with seven of the ten such horses winning. Indeed, the winner-to-runner rate for those not trained by Jim Bolger drops to 8%. Furthermore, Nigel Hawke’s juveniles invariable improve for experience with his first-time strike rate being a mere 4.62%, and second time rate just 5.88%. Fascinating Rock’s record is below average by general standards with his sole winner from eight being the Joseph O’Brien trained Faron, and his clear round rate of 81.82% being low by any measure. Intriguing Lady’s uncle did win a juvenile hurdle, albeit a weak Stratford seller, and apart from minor winner Manjaam at 3/2, jumping prowess on the damline is negligible before reaching Mengli Khan at 4/2. Drifting from 9/1 to 14/1 at Hexham, all concerns manifested in the contest itself as she raced keenly, made errors at most flights before weakening tamely on leaving the back and finishing well beaten. Some experience is better than none, the sharper test might suit and the yard came close to breaking its dry run with a neck second last week. However, considerable improvement would still be required for her to feature strongly here.Supplement
Intriguing Lady was sent off the 20/1 outsider of the field but there was improvement from her Hexham showing. Held up in the rear, she settled much better and her jumping also saw significant improvement with her skewing over the second being the only error of note. Nevertheless, she was still treading water on the turn for home and but for her remaining rivals pulling themselves up after the penultimate flight mele, she may have finished last. In fairness, she was carried widest of all by the loose horse and though she had no chance with the winner and less chance with the would-be winner, she is beginning to look one that could work with a reasonable mark.Strong prospects
1. Free Chakarte
Reasonable prospects
2. Mucuna
Feasible prospects
.
Moderate prospects
3. Intriguing Lady
Negligible prospects
4. BeerenbergStratford – 10th July – Preview
Since 2005, nine juveniles competed at Stratford during the summer before running in the Triumph. While most finished well beaten at the festival, Fair Along and Barizan would find only one too good during the 2005/06 and 2009/10 campaigns respectively. Ironically, the aforementioned failed to score at Stratford before going on to better things. Those that have won corresponding runnings of Sunday’s contest include Callisto Moon and Leoncavallo, who won in 2007 and 2015 before following up in the Wensleydale, and Simarian who in 2008 would land the Grade 2 Prestbury Hurdle. Nevertheless, as is often the case with these events, such horses are outliers and the typical standard of this contest is modest with the average winner’s seasonal RPR being 107.53. This year’s renewal features three previous winners, although their Cheltenham aspirations are quite slim as the standard of the nineteen juveniles seen to date this term has been modest. Neither is there a great deal to be said of the three maidens introduced to the fold from the flat. Notwithstanding, the field is set to be the joint largest seen thus far and the race ought to be competitive if nothing else so it should be an intriguing contest for what it is.Despite being a sharp and generally flat track which seldom sees winter ground, Stratford still presents one of the sternest stamina tests for juvenile hurdlers. The winning Dis of 0.97 median, 1.21 mean, are lower only at Cheltenham, Chepstow, Hexham and Worcester with only Hexham having the largest discrepancy between the DIs of winners and beaten horses. The completion rate of 81.26% is also in the bottom ten, although it is somewhat fairer as a jumping test with a clear round rate of 95.41% falling fractionally below average. It is not a venue which is particularly kind to debutants with the comparative strike-rate for newcomers being worse at just two British courses. The ground is currently good and, with warm weather anticipated, will be watered to maintain. Shipton Moyne made all to make a winning debut at Market Rasen last time and with several of these happy to race prominently, the pace should be an honest one.
Captain Square chg Tom Lacey f6-0-2 (69) 74 j1-1-0 (-) 82 88
Sir Percy (Duke Of Marmalade){1-m}(0.33) 3/1 Overturn 167 2nd Champion Hurdle, Cheltenham 2012
By Sir Percy (Knight Salute, Parliament Hill, winner-to-runner rate of 33.33%) and from the family of Chocala (2/1), Fisher Bridge (3/1) and Overturn (3/1), Captain Square probably has the most interesting and complete pedigree seen in the division this season. Moreover, while he was a six-race maiden on the flat for Andrew Balding, his official rating 69 is a pound off the highest brought into the race. His first three outings all came over seven furlongs last July where he followed a midfield finish at Sandown (behind Derby also-ran Sonny Liston) with third (behind 1000 Guineas runner-up Prosperous Voyage) and fourth (behind Royal Lodge winner Royal Patronage) place finishes at Epsom. Captain Square got no closer five lengths to the aforementioned, but he did shape as though further would suit and his allotted mark of 72 was not unduly harsh. However, following an eight month break and a gelding operation, this potential did not play out in practice as Captain Square failed to make any real impression in a pair of twelve furlong handicaps in April. At Southwell, he failed to settle in a falsely run contest, but had no such excuse next time at Lingfield where he beat only one home. Captain Sqaure’s sights were lowered for his return to turf at Leicester and while all but one of his rivals were rated higher, his receiving weight all round and being much the least exposed saw him sent off the even money favourite. However, he failed to settle once again and although he led momentarily at the distance, was clear second best on the day. Following the race, Captain Square was claimed for £12,000 to join a Tom Lacey yard which, prior to Newton Abbot, was two winners from ten in the sphere; both scoring at the first time of asking. Andrew Balding has supplied 108 juveniles to the division since 2004/05 and twenty of those were winners; including the likes of Knight Salute, Hollow Tree and Flaxen Flare. The improvement rare of 22.78% is a low one and of the six previous juveniles who were bought out of selling and claiming races, not one win was achieved from their twenty-eight runs combined. This dire record was ended by Captain Square when he made a successful start to his new career at Newton Abbot nearly three weeks ago; albeit in most fortuitous circumstances. Not without supporters, he started the day as 6/5 favourite and while a plunge horse forced him out, he was still solid in the market; starting the race as 2/1 second favourite. Taking a keen hold just behind the vanguard, there was room for improvement in his jumping as he was low at the first, went left at the third, hopped over the fourth and skewed over the next. As the field left the back second time, Captain Square was the only one to just about keep tabs on the near-certain winner who led him by around four lengths when leaving him in a clear lead at the penultimate flight. Ponderous in his own company, he had to be chivvied along on the run to the last where he was ponderous. Nevertheless, he was so far clear that nothing more was asked of him as he coasted home by fifteen lengths. Given how the contest developed and how Captain Square closed out the race, it is improbable that he would have fared better than second had the leader maintained verticality. The winning time was modest and the form in behind is modest with the second and fourth running a nothing race next time out. Moreover, this is a much more competitive race and he is effectively carrying a penalty for finishing second. Moreover, his pulling in the early stages and laziness in the closing stages at Newton Abbot are causes for concern. Notwithstanding, Captain Square has the best flat form of 2022, shaped as though he should improve for hurdling experience and is bred to appreciate the test afforded by Stratford so he would not be readily discounted.Mucuna bf Milton Harris f8-1-0 (49) 55 j3-2-1 (-) 91 98
Guiliani (Gold Away){14-b}(0.89) 2/1 Capellini 98 1st 2m Handicap Hurdle (93), Plumpton 2013
Prior to his forced sabbatical, Milton Harris was no slouch when it came to juvenile hurdlers; saddling Modul to win the Grade 2 Summit and Finesse Hurdles in 2003/04 and subsequently guiding Gulf Punch (rated 45 and claimed for £5000), Pseudonym (also claimed for £5000), Rosie’s Glory (rated 60) and Moonfleet (rated 57) to the winners’ enclosure. Nevertheless, since his glorious return to the shores of Hoofiana, Harris has proven himself in no uncertain terms with an excellent winner to runner record of ten from twenty capped by last season’s hugely admirable Knight Salute. He has started the current season as he ended the last by winning a juvenile hurdle at Aintree with the 49 rated Mucuna. Her first five outings, commencing last October, came on the all-weather; starting at triple digit prices on each occasion with her best effort coming with a midfield finish in a mile Handicap at Kempton off 46. However, the switch to turf and a step up to ten furlongs saw her get off the mark at Salisbury back in April. Held up in midfield and racing widest of all, she was asked for her effort half a mile from home. It took a while for her to move through the gears, but she did run on strongest of all; taking it up in the final hundred yards and winning by three quarters of a length. The field finished in a heap but while the form amounts to little, Mucuna was clearly the best on the day. She was unable to follow up in a couple of Bath handicaps off 50 during May, finishing fourth on both occasions, but it was apparent that the track did not see her to best effect. The switch to hurdling came a month ago at Aintree and while she was backed from 20/1 into 4/1 second favourite, this was not a clandestine move as there was plenty of evidence for a good showing in a weak race. Although her rating is a low one, Milton Harris, since his return, has trained Romeo’s Bond (55) to win, and Global Agreement (56) to place first time. Mucuna’s pedigree was also feasibly conducive as Guiliani (another first-season sire) is a nephew of Getaway and the damline contains winners Capellini (2/1), listed class handicapper Beringneyev (3/1), Mahogany Blaze (4/3) and Petit Mouchoir (5/5). Held up last of four, in a race ran at a galop comparable to the handicap on the card, Mucuna was novicey over the first three flights as she was steady and awkward over one and two and jumped left while leaving her hind legs in the third. Nevertheless, she was more fluent thereafter and though behind her two remaining rivals when turning for home, was close up and ultimately the last to come off the bridle. Despite being squeezed out at the final flight, she took the lead in a matter of strides and with the rail to help, ran out a decisive and enthusiastic three-length winner. All told, she did not have to improve on her flat form to land the spoils, but her willingness and proven hurdling ability did not go unnoticed. Mucuna returned to the track a week later at Market Rasen and, though very well supported ahead of her Aintree bow, the Market Rasen market was rather lukewarm on her chances as she drifted from a morning 6/4 to 11/4 at the off. Held up off the pace, by some distance at stages, Mucuna’s standard of jumping was just below that of her debut. Having made headway into a threatening position rounding the turn for home, she was caught for toe as the race developed and a pair of awkward jumps over the last two flights did her no favours. The run-in at Market Rasen is the best part of two furlongs so she had plenty of time to put a strong finishing burst together. However, while she managed to eventually grab second in front of the stands, there was still over four lengths between herself and winner Shipton Moyne at the line. The contest looked hotter than at Aintree but the prize went to the rank outsider and as few of her rivals really took to hurdles, the performance can only be regarded as a downgrade. Furthermore, Mucuna also hinted at a preference to jumping to her right, and while this was not a problem at Aintree, it could have been one at Newton Abbot nine days ago if symptomatic of an ingrained physiological issue. Fortunately for her followers, this proved not to be the case; at least not in a way that was entirely detrimental to her winning chances. While the habit of jumping across her hurdles was actually more pronounced on her latest effort, she often went markedly to her left on this occasion which may indicate that she simply likes jumping toward the inner. The Newton Abbot contest was essentially a match between herself and Free Chakarte. Though the longer priced of the pair during the day’s exchanges, they were almost level at the off with Mucuna going off a fraction longer at 6/5. Still racing keenly on her third jumps outing in as many weeks, she was soon tracking the leader having initially raced third of four. Her hurdling was not wholly fluent as along with going to her left, she skewed at the first, was untidy at the second, tight at the fifth, big at the sixth and slow away from the last two. Despite these errors however, she was travelling best once the race was between the two principals within the microcosm of a Newton Abbot battle, Mucuna’s stamina edge (and possibly her rider’s allowance) told over her rival’s speed. Indeed, given how the race developed, it is to her credit that she was able to earn the victory and while it probably amounts to little, the race was the strongest in the division this term from a time perspective. There is a Market Rasen beating to overturn with Shipton Moyne and this being her fourth run within a month will be a concern. Nevertheless, Mucuna does meet Shipton Moyne on better terms (even discounting the conditional allowance), the race should be ran at a more even gallop, her form is the strongest in the line-up and Stratford does have the potential to bring out further improvement. Moreover, as demonstrated by Appreciate in the previous race, Milton Harris is adept at running in-form horses multiple times within a short window of time.Dicktate bg Roger Teal f5-0-0 (62) 64 j1-0-0 (-) 63 66
Lawman (Pivotal){3-d}(1.20) 2/2 Catherine Chroi 46 12th 3yo Maiden Hurdle , Fairyhouse 2021
After finishing well beaten on his debut at Kempton last August, Dicktate was not disgraced during the Autumn over ten furlongs at Bath and Goodwood; for all that he was beaten a combined fifteen lengths. However, his season ended with a tailed off eighth of nine at Newmarket and the revised mark of 64 still looked beyond him on his sole flat start this year when he was beaten twelve lengths at Salisbury with no apparent excuses to be made. Insofar as a switch to hurdling is concerned, the credentials of his sire, Lawman, are better as while his offspring are seldom better than ordinary, their winner-to-runner rate of 20% is solid enough. However, the damline is more patchy as the closest winning jumper, First Man’s success coming in a three-mile Catterick Handicap, appears at 4/3. Roger Teal’s jumps strike rate of 6.7% drops to 0% when isolating juvenile hurdlers with nine horses contributing to his zero from eighteen strike rate. Dicktate was the latest to add to this record when making his jumps bow behind Captain Square at Newton Abbot. Drifting from 17/2 to 18/1 in the ring, Dicktate was prominent in the opening stages but his being hampered at the first foreshadowed a round of mostly slow and cautious jumping which saw him fall back to midfield. Already ridden along going out into the second lap, he was disputing a distant third when the leader fell at two out. Having to avoid the faller, Dicktate attempted to pull himself up shortly afterwards and while he consented to continue, it was without enthusiasm, ultimately finishing a twenty length third behind the winner. Those he split were over fifty lengths behind Mucuna next time out, and though experience entitles him to a modicum of improvement, there would have to be a dramatic upturn in enthusiasm and aptitude.Fast Style bg Sam Allwood f5-1-2 (70) 70 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Camacho (Dalakhani){3-d}(1.00) 3/1 Colenso 111 1st 2m Handicap Hurdle (110), Tramore 2019
Though twelve ex-Roger Charlton juveniles have won since 2004/05, their overall record is ordinary with their winner-runner rate being 18.46%, and improvement rate a modest 20.93%. While Fast Style’s official rating of 70 is the highest in this race, his price tag of 15,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale is low for a successful prospective juvenile from the yard. The rating came courtesy of his getting off the mark at the fifth time of asking in an October Kempton nursery over a mile from a perch of 66. His rating that day of 66 was fair based on his two previous efforts at the venue, but the performance was not enough to keep him at Beckhampton. He joined a Sam Allwood yard which is starting to get its jump winners, although none of the six juveniles to date have obliged in thirteen runs. Fast Style’s breeding is little more encouraging as while Camacho has had three winning juveniles, it is at a below average rate of 11.54% . Grandam Pearl Dance finished third in a Moyglare Stud Stakes, and the first jumpers appear from the third dam; who produced winning handicapper Colenso, as well as the dam of fair French jumper Ejo Pritchard. Despite making his hurdles bow in a weak looking four-runner event at Aintree last month, these factors did not prevent Fast Style’s drifting from a 7/1 morning show to 25/1 at post time. In the race itself, he failed to settle fully behind the leaders, jumped moderately and was detached after jumping the last in the back whereafter he was pulled up.Mutara bg Sean Curran f8-0-3 (55) 62
Muhaarar (Lucky Story){3-c}(0.78) 3/2 Ramonex 136 1st 2m3f Handicap Chase (120), Catterick 2018
Making his debut at Kempton in February, Mutara finished no better than midfield on his first three outings. However, in five outings since his switch to handicaps in early April, he has yet to finish outside of the first four. It should be noted that these performances came off mark decreasing from 55 and that the winners’ enclosure has thus far eluded him; but by the same token, he has been a consistent animal. He was doing his best work towards the finish when third over eleven furlongs at Windsor in early May (Shipton Moyne was seven and half lengths behind) and returning to the turf after a Wolverhampton fourth, would twice find only one too good. At Leicester, he was no match for a horse who recently completed a four-timer, and at Chepstow three weeks ago, was bested by another subsequent winner. Mutara did little wrong on either occasion and has little to answer for in terms of attitude. For all of his honesty, his stamina is not entirely assured and the pedigree is not wholly encouraging. Muhaarar has had one winner from seven juveniles and the jumpers that appear on the damline prior to Ramonex at 3/2 have been poor. Sean Curran has had winners in the division; albeit at a winner to runner rate of 9.52% with zero from twenty scoring first time out. Though of modest ability on the flat, there are elements within his profile to suggest he can at least match his flat form although it is not obviously likely that he can do so at the first time of asking.Rolypolymoly bg Adam West f7-0-1 (63) 69
Heeraat (Monsun){1-k}(0.60) 2/1 Zoffalee 135 1st 2m1f 4yo Handicap Hurdle (112), Ballinrobe 2019
Currently rated 63 on the flat, Rolypolymoly has the highest mark of the three newcomers and could also be the most fairly treated animal in that sphere. After finishing sixth of nine on his debut at Salisbury last September, he round off his two year old campaign with midfield finishes at Goodwood and Kempton which earned him a BHA figure of 67. He ran to a similar level when midfield on his return at Pontefract over a mile in April, but shaped better when stepped up ten furlongs at Nottingham and Leicester, despite taking a keen grip at the latter when finishing just over three lengths behind in third. His last appearance came four weeks ago at Salisbury, carrying top weight in a class four handicap over a mile and a half. He was supported into 7/2 second favouritism having been available at 5/1 but while he settled well enough in midfield, found himself with little room once the race picked up off a modest tempo. Whatever chance he held at the furlong marker was extinguished as he was blocked off once again and he was resigned to beating just one home. Though it can not be said that he was definitely an unlucky loser, he should have finished closer than he did in a race where the front two have both scored since. Rolypolymoly‘s damline offers flashes of optimism for his new vocation as he is out of a Monsun (34.29% winner to runner as a damsire) half-sister to capable hurdler Zoffalee. However, sire Heeraat was a sprint bred sprinter and none of his five juveniles to date have finished better than sixth in the sphere. As such, while he has form over ten and twelve furlongs, these came in falsely run contests so he will be relying on his damline for stamina here. Moreover, trainer Adam West has failed to saddle a winning juvenile from seven in sixteen starts, with the only respite being that two did improve on their flat form without reaching the frame. A generous assessment of Rolypolymoly’s flat profile suggests that there is the ability and potential stamina to make an impact here. However, the record of his sire and trainer, along with the poor record of newcomers in this contest, conspire to temper enthusiasm.Shipton Moyne bf Richard J Bandey f5-0-0 (45) 51 j1-1-0 (-) 82 90
Coach House (Kyllachy){4-n}(3.00) 2/2 Mongolia 58.0/111 1st 3800m 4yo Fillies’ Conditions Hurdle. Angers 2020
Since finishing a ten length sixth on her racecourse bow at Kempton in December, Shipton Moyne was unable to match that effort in four subsequent flat outings. Having ran over a mile at Kempton (beaten twenty-eight lengths) and seven furlongs at Chelmsford (beaten fifteen lengths) prior to a break, her latest flat spin came at Windsor in early May over an extended eleven furlongs where she finished weakly some twelve lengths behind Alan King’s Fast Forward. Prior to switching to jumps at Market Rasen, sire Coach House had a winner from three juveniles, and cousin Mongolia won in the French provinces at four. However, the remainder of the damline (which includes Treve and Triptych) is weak as far as jumpers are concerned until reaching the fair Balkeo at 4/4. Moreover, Kyllachy is an underwhelming influence in the sphere with one winner from twenty-nine as a sire, and zero from three as a damsire. On paper, there was little reason to suspect that Shipton Moyne would be able to reverse the significant gap between herself and Fast Forward, or match the standard set by Mucuna. Trainer Richard Bandey’s previous juvenile had failed to win, although his record at Market Rasen is three winners from six and Shipton Moyne had not gone unbacked; starting the day at 40/1, going as low as 14/1 in the ring before starting at 20/1. Leading or disputing from the outset, the front pair were about a dozen lengths clear passing the post first time although the pace was not overly strong. Her hurdling was not entirely neat as she was given to skewing slightly and landing somewhat steeply. Nevertheless, it was certainly proficient enough to quickly get from one side to the other and as her rival faded on leaving the back, she took full advantage of getting first run on the remainder; maintaining a steady advantage that amounted to four and a half lengths at the line. The performance was something of a revelation although the winning time was weak and if one assumes that the second and third underperformed (there are feasible reasons for both being true) then she did not have to improve a great deal on her flat form to win that contest. There was plenty to like about the way Shipton Moyne went about things at Market Rasen and being unexposed, she is very much open to further improvement; although the suspicion is that improvement will probably be vital in these circumstances.My Rosa’s Gold chf Nigel Hawke f10-0-0 42 (48)
Havana Gold (Verglas){16-e}(1.18) 3/1 Pigeon Island 146 1st Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (G2), Kempton 2008
Nigel Hawke, can claim a respectable record in the sphere with a 19.40% winner to runner rate that increases to 25.71% with flat sourced horses. The lion’s share of this success comes from those who started with Jim Bolger; seven of the ten such horses winning as juveniles. Indeed, the winner-to-runner rate for those not trained by Jim Bolger drops to 8% and neither that were trained for the flat in Stoodleigh were successful. Furthermore, Nigel Hawke’s juveniles invariable improve for experience with his first-time strike rate being a mere 4.62%, and second time rate just 5.77%. The latest to attempt breaking this trend is the ten race maiden My Rosa’s Gold. During her career, only twice has she been beaten less than four lengths; when she was eighth off 45 in a Lingfield nursery, and three outings ago at Bath off 46. She weakened on her only try at nine furlongs or beyond, and her latest two appearances saw her beaten eleven and eighteen lengths off 46. Sire Havana Gold has a strike-rate of 5.41% in the division, although the improvement rate of 42.86% is reasonable, albeit from a small sample. The damline is quite encouraging as Verglas has three winners from twelve as a damsire, the dam is a half-sister to two winning hurdlers in Telemachus and Nakoma while the third dam produced the talented Pigeon Island along with winning juvenile Dalmo along with On Alert who won at four. Without the distaff side to the pedigree and her trainer’s overall ability, My Rosa’s Gold would be easily overlooked as a prospective hurdler. Trepidation still persists on the basis of her flat ability and the yard’s slow burning approach, but there may be a longer term future when handicaps become an option.Strong prospects
1. Mucuna
Reasonable prospects
2. Shipton Moyne
3. Captain Square
Feasible/Moderate prospects
4. Mutara
5. Rolypolymoly
6. My Rosa’s Gold
7. Fast Style
Negligible prospects
8. Dicktatetl;dr
Captain Square – Flat form amongst the better in this field and is bred to do well over hurdles. Won on hurdling debut but was fortunate in doing so and aspects of his performance give cause for concern. Nevertheless, is entitled to improve and should benefit from conditions.Mucuna – Winner on flat at modest level and with trainer who knows how to train juveniles. Already two wins from three in new vocation and latest effort was best yet despite unfavourable test. Every chance for better here and rider offsets double penalty.
Dicktate – Profile not most conducive to game and showed questionable attitude when well beaten on Newton Abbot debut.
Fast Style – Highest official rating in line-up but unraced in 2022 prior to Aintree where big drifter and pulled up before leaving back.
Mutara – Modest maiden but has shown himself to be consistent at his level since handicapping. Pedigree and trainer not negligible for new career but will probably benefit from experience.
Rolypolymoly – Comparatively decent on flat and attitude is improving. Nephew of faily capable sort but records of sire and trainer are not encouraging here.
Shipton Moyne – Surprise winner on hurdles bow at Market Rasen but perhaps did not accomplish a great deal. Likeable performance first time and scope for improvement but not certain to confirm placings with Mucuna due to weight and conditions.
My Rosa’s Gold – Shown very little on flat but interesting damline. Trainer is capable but usually starts slowly
Epic – what a piece of work, BH.
I hate to think how long that would take me to put together.
Mucuna top on my numbers and the bet is always doubled when the great man seems to think the same.
Another masterpiece.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“Bachelor’s; as Hemingway said ‘Know how complicated it is and then state it simply.’ I was a columnist for many years, and I think your commercial viability suffers from excessive detail.
Like other TRF members, I greatly relish your posts, but for the average reader……”Hi Befair,
Apologies for delayed response. I think the key term is commercial viabilty. If my goal was to write for money then I agree entirely. My work would have to be considerably more streamlined in order to fit within the limited print space but also to maintain the attention of the average reader. Nevertheless, at this juncture I have little designs on such a career path. Rather annoyingly, I quite like my current job as it is one of those very rare ones which has a net positive impact on society while also paying my bills. If I did not care about my job (which has often been the case) then I would absolutely consider my options. But for now, writing these previews is simply a hobby and as it is just a hobby, I have the freedom to practise it as I please.
Insofar as the detail, I would quite like for it to take less time to produce. However, my aim for these previews is to inform at an exhaustive level because that is what I would want to read in anticipation of such races. I could trim down the content by writing like a tipster; i.e, concentrating on the positives of those I “fancy” while neglecting those of the opposition. However, were I to read this from another writer, I would find it to be biased, selective, incomplete, lazy etc. Opinions inherently form part of the analysis, but even (or especially) if I get it wrong, I still want to find the evidence of my misjudgement in the profile.
“For goodness sake BH please do not change your style for anything.”
Thank you Sam. I wont :D
“Today’s Irish juvenile maiden at Tipperary looks a fun puzzle to solve. The flat ratings on offer are no better than those seen in the British equivalents so far. Charlie Luciano appeals most on breeding. He opened at 10s and has been hammered into 7/2. Second best on breeding looks to be Tory Reel who is into 15/2 from double figures. I am no Bachelors Hall though 😉”
Hi TYT,
Excellent shout on the Tipperary race. Due to my being aghast that HRI still allow Stephen Mahon anywhere near racehorses, I avoid writing on regions with illegitimate governing bodies. As such, you are more than welcome to take the lead on such races :D“Epic – what a piece of work, BH.
I hate to think how long that would take me to put together.”Thank you Colin :) This one took most of yesterday afternoon. I broke to watch three or four races and to catch the closing stages of TdF… also to walk/dance around every so often. Not sure how long it would take to sit down and get it all done in one go, but I don’t imagine it would be as much fun either…
“Mucuna top on my numbers and the bet is always doubled when the great man seems to think the same.
Another masterpiece.”Always appreciated. The 11/4 last night is now a thing of the past thanks to the weight of your double stake! Fair amount of support for Rolypolymoly. Yard two from four at Stratford… The 9/1 was potentially generous but couldn’t justify this plunge solely on paper. Are there any stats on Adam West market movers?
“Mucuna top on my numbers and the bet is always doubled when the great man seems to think the same.”
Once again, The Great Man Bachelors Hall lends invaluable assistance in….KEEPING THE WOLF FROM THE DOOR.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I understand Bachelors; just that your unique analysis deserves the widest audience (and financial recompense).
‘What every writer/musician/artist wants, really really wants, is to be paid;’ Terry PratchettI suspect BH is happy enough as he is.
I do my own occasional broadcasts on a dedicated Facebook page, linked to from my Twitter, simply because it’s something I enjoy doing.
I’ve been asked if “the service could become more organised, with set broadcast times and notifications.”
I replied: “It’s not a ‘service.’ That word implies I do it to serve others. I don’t – I do it for me.”
I’ve also been asked if I will ever charge for access to it.
I replied: “If I started charging, I would have to start offering a service. No thanks.”
Not everyone does these things in pursuit of money.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"It’s a bit like watching my uncles going at it… in a very civil manner of course…
“I would have to start offering a service. No thanks.”
This, along with work schedule and dodgy laptop, is a pretty key reason for my wandering off last season. As I am not indebted or obliged to anybody but myself, I do have the freedom to walk away whenever. While a fair amount was happening earlier this year, I also wanted to do it just because I could so I was happy to exercise said freedom.
Were someone to offer me a comfortable and secure stream of income to write precisely as I do at the moment, I would probably accept. If the opportunity came to lend my research and/or writing skills to an entity within the industry (not gambling), I would be interested. However, were I offered to use said skills on a broader range of topics in a more succinct style, I am not sure I would be too enthused. I struggle to imagine a publication for which my work would be suited in its current form (I will never write for the bookies) and I would be loathe to make my work lesser for the sake of broader appeal.
I would like my work to be familiar and accessible to everybody who would be interested in such a thing. Not for fame, but because I think the work can enhance a person’s enjoyment and appreciation of a race and that is only a good thing. In a similar vein, it is also a reason why I would be reluctant to ask for money. I want my content to be freely available to anybody and being a soppy idealist, do not feel that anybody should be priced out from what is ultimately a hobby of mine. A hobby which plays second fiddle to a career where I am actually making a net positive contribution to society (which can not be said of most “job” jobs).
Insofar as motivation/validation is concerned, as one can can probably tell, I am not materially driven. Indeed, while my actual work does not pay a great deal, it does afford me food, shelter, internet access and a few trips a year. Since I don’t drive, neither have nor want children, and carry no interest in flashy gadgets or appearances, I would not know what to do with any more money.
External validation isn’t completely worthless. It is pleasant if my work is praised by someone whose judgement I hold in regard – be it someone on the forums or a writer/journo/owner on twitter. Indeed, getting votes for “Thread of the Year” definitely means something to me. But niceness notwithstanding, the biggest motivator is personal satisfaction. Knowing that whatever I have produced is the best I could have done. Comparing oneself to others can be a precarious enterprise, but since we do not live in a vacuum, it is handy to see if anybody is doing a better job at studying and writing about juvenile hurdlers. To my knowledge, nobody else is really trying but if someone wanted to have a go, I would quite like it if they had to pull out all the stops.
I can so relate to all of that.
Great to have you back around, BH – I for one will never take your presence for granted.
A wandering free spirit comes and goes as he pleases.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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