Juvenile Hurdlers 2022/23

[Colin Phillips]

You seem to have a very healthy attitude to life, BH.

Congratulations and long may it last.

[gamble]

A very refreshing read. I do think a feeling of contentment is the yardstick that should be striven for or accidentally arrived at rather than the elusive happiness drug. The hobo spirit is also not a bad thing and making the best of what you have. I think it is a good philosophy and not saying it replaces the one biscuit that Davies has nicely settled on but there are veins of similar goodness present and hopefully more will follow these unworldly goals in their secret monasteries of peace and contentment. Good that you have struck on this formula for life at a young age whilst I, certainly your senior, am still searching.

[IanDavies]

Free Chakartre for me in an intriguing Newton Abbot affair tomorrow.

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[sporting sam]

It would be no suprise to see Cowboy run a big race on debut.
Third to mighty Ulysses on the flat.

[IanDavies]

Mucuna loves this game – easily her best effort so far.

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[sporting sam]

Yes, that was authoritive.
Cowboy did well up to a point.
It was good to see the Moore horse come back well after last time.

[befair]

I haven’t seen any juvenile hurdlers in handicaps yet; have I missed any?

[IanDavies]

Free Chakarte 1.20 Uttoxeter for me today.

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[Bachelors Hall]

No juveniles in handicaps just yet. First batch of ratings have just come out this week;

MUCUNA (GER) 120
FREE CHAKARTE (FR) 105
CAPTAIN SQUARE (GB) 103
DICKTATE (GB) 96
INTRIGUING LADY (IRE) 81

Nothing looks especially well treated at first glance…

Stratford – 28th July – Preview
Stratford is set to host the first maiden juvenile hurdle of the season and, as per its title, probably won’t be the classiest affair. Quality form, either on the flat or over jumps, is thin on the ground with the six runners achieving just one win from a combined thirty-nine starts. Nevertheless, it is not a race entirely devoid of intrigue. The two runners with experience reoppose having finished fourth and fifth over course and distance eighteen days ago behind a pair of subsequent winners. Meanwhile, the four hurdling debutants, two of whom graduated the Tattersalls Sale early this month, represent capable trainers in the sphere and all bring ratings above the absolute average of 55 for juvenile hurdlers. That three of these are set to be their sires’ first runners over hurdles adds another dimension to the contest. Despite being a sharp and generally flat track which seldom sees winter ground, Stratford still presents one of the sternest stamina tests for juvenile hurdlers. The winning Dis of 0.93 median, 1.21 mean, are lower only at Cheltenham, Chepstow, Hexham and Worcester with only Hexham having the largest discrepancy between the DIs of winners and beaten horses. The completion rate of 81.20% is also in the bottom ten, although it is somewhat fairer as a jumping test with a clear round rate of 95.41% falling fractionally below average. It is not a venue which is particularly kind to debutants with the comparative strike-rate for newcomers being worse at just two British courses. The ground is currently described as good, good to firm in places, with moderate weather and some watering set to ease somewhat conditions. With there are no habitual front-runners among the six starters, Stratford’s stamina demands may not be as pronounced as usual.

Dicktate bg Roger Teal f5-0-0 (62) 64 j2-0-1 (96) 80 90
Lawman (Pivotal){3-d}(1.20) 2/2 Catherine Chroi 46 12th 3yo Maiden Hurdle , Fairyhouse 2021
After finishing well beaten on his debut at Kempton last August, Dicktate was not disgraced during the Autumn over ten furlongs at Bath and Goodwood; for all that he was beaten a combined fifteen lengths. However, his season ended with a tailed off eighth of nine at Newmarket and the revised mark of 64 still looked beyond him on his sole flat start this year when he was beaten twelve lengths at Salisbury with no apparent excuses to be made. Insofar as a switch to hurdling is concerned, the credentials of his sire, Lawman, are better as while his offspring are seldom better than ordinary, their winner-to-runner rate of 20% is solid enough. However, the damline is more patchy as the closest winning jumper, First Man’s success coming in a three-mile Catterick Handicap, appears at 4/3. Roger Teal’s jumps strike rate of 6.7% drops to 0% when isolating juvenile hurdlers with nine horses contributing to his zero from eighteen strike rate. Dicktate was the latest to add to this record when making his jumps bow behind Captain Square at Newton Abbot last month. Drifting from 17/2 to 18/1 in the ring, Dicktate was prominent in the opening stages but his being hampered at the first foreshadowed a round of mostly slow and cautious jumping which saw him fall back to midfield. Already ridden along going out into the second lap, he was disputing a distant third when the leader fell at two out. Having to avoid the faller, Dicktate attempted to pull himself up shortly afterwards and while he consented to continue, it was without enthusiasm, ultimately finishing a twenty length third behind the winner. Dicktate’s latest outing came at Stratford eighteen days ago where there was little market confidence beforehand in his improving for the experience; starting at 25/1. Disputing the lead in an evenly ran contest, he was close and untidy at the second, and steady when getting the fourth wrong. Dicktate was off the bridle from half a mile out and driven entering the straight. He still held a narrow advantage but was headed approaching the last where an awkward jump cost him any momentum that remained as he was relegated to a nine-and-a-quarter length fourth on the run-in. Despite his errors, there was an upturn in his enthusiasm and aptitude and further improvement can probably be expected. However, the standard he sets for the potentially capable newcomers is not a high one so the first-time application of the tongue-tie needs to have a telling effect.

Graffiti bg Gary Brown f7-0-0 (64) 70
Sixties Icon (Excellent Art){A34}(0.82) 1/1 Banksy’s Art 100 3rd Juvenile Hurdle, Market Rasen 2018
Starting off over a mile at Goodwood last September for Mick Channon, Graffiti ran twice at Pontefract in the Autumn, finishing no nearer than eight lengths behind the winner in a pair of novice stakes. Following a winter break, he had a couple of spins on the all-weather in handicap company and while he finished last on each occasion, was at least able to finish closer. His initial mark of 71 was quite difficult to justify, and a return to the turf, drop to 67 and switch to Gary Brown’s failed to trigger a change in fortunes. He was last seen looking decidedly slow over a mile when beating just one home at Newbury three weeks ago. Graffiti shapes as though he can get the trip over jumps and his full-brother, Banksy’s Art, managed to place third in a juvenile hurdle. Former inmates of Mick Channon’s have a solid winner-to-runner rate of 24.16%, although this drops to 19.09% when removing those who went to Sheena West; Banksy’s Art amongst them. Gary Brown himself has not had a winning juvenile from the nine he has saddled since Hilali won at this venue in 2012, and the yard’s improvement rate of 16.67% is not sufficient to grant encouragement to Graffiti’s patchy, if not lamentable, profile.

Mutara bg Sean Curran f8-0-3 (55) 62 j1-0-0 (-) 75 85
Muhaarar (Lucky Story){3-c}(0.78) 3/2 Ramonex 136 1st 2m3f Handicap Chase (120), Catterick 2018
Making his debut at Kempton in February, Mutara finished no better than midfield on his first three outings. However, in five flat outings since his switch to handicaps in early April, he has yet to finish outside of the first four. It should be noted that these performances came off mark decreasing from 55 and that the winners’ enclosure has thus far eluded him; but by the same token, he has been a consistent animal. He was doing his best work towards the finish when third over eleven furlongs at Windsor in early May and returning to the turf after a Wolverhampton fourth, would twice find only one too good. At Leicester, he was no match for a horse who recently completed a four-timer, and at Chepstow last month, was bested by another subsequent winner. Mutara did little wrong on either occasion and has little to answer for in terms of attitude. For all of his honesty, his stamina is not entirely assured and the pedigree is not wholly encouraging. Muhaarar has had one winner from seven juveniles and the jumpers that appear on the damline prior to Ramonex at 3/2 have been poor. Sean Curran has had winners in the division; albeit at a winner to runner rate of 9.09%. None had scored first time out, which afforded lowered expectations for Mutara on his hurdling debut at this track earlier in the month. Starting at 15/2, having been as short as 9/2 om the ring, Mutara was keen early on, and his being badly balked at the first put paid to his confidence as he was big and ungainly over the remaining obstacles. Never out of the rear, or threatening to get involved in the contest, Mutara was eased on the run-in; finishing five lengths behind Dicktate. There is ample scope for Mutara to leave that debut performance well behind, although his prospects hinge considerably more on potential than substance without accounting for the fact that, for all his consistency and decent attitude on the flat, his rating is still the lowest from that sphere.

Rogue Mission grg Milton Harris f4-1-1 (71) 70
El Kabeir (Spinning World){2-d}(4.33) 2/1 Primus Inter Pares 107 1st 2m3f Handicap Chase (101), Catterick 2008
At the 2021 Tattersalls July Sale, Milton Harris walked away with four juvenile hurdlers for sums between fourteen and twenty thousand guineas. Three of these, Aliomaana, Genuflex and Knight Salute, would all find the winners’ enclosure with the latter named – incidentally the least expensive of the bunch – capping off a fantastic campaign with success in the Grade One Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree. Returning to the well at this year’s sale, Mr Harris brought along a much thicker wallet, and left with five potential juveniles; three costing over fifty-five thousand guineas. The cheapest of the quintet this time around was Rogue Mission, who commanded a comparatively modest sum of fifteen thousand guineas. Gelded before his racecourse debut in early January, Rogue Mission’s four flat outings have all come at Lingfield under the care of Tom Clover. A steady 25/1 ahead of a ten furlong novice stakes, Rogue Mission dove out of stalls, took keen hold in rear and went nowhere under pressure; finishing a ten length seventh of eight. He reappeared three weeks later in an identical contest where he attracted outside support in the ring, shortening four points to 12/1 at the off. He started better on this occasion, although he did have another horse to bounce off when leaving the stalls. Still keen and held up towards the rear, he moved into a prominent position turning for home and although he took a while to gather himself under pressure, Rogue Mission was able to narrowly get the best of an honest battle inside the final half-furlong with the pair finishing a couple of lengths clear. The runner-up sadly lost his life next time out, although the third and fourth have each given the form a bit of substance in subsequent outings. Four weeks later, Rogue Mission was outclassed in a match race against a horse who had finished a length second to a subsequent listed winner before he made his handicap debut over ten furlongs back in May. Returning after a ten-week break off a mark of 71, Rogue Mission was friendless in the market and ran accordingly. Ridden from the stalls, he made a short lived effort while going wide on the home turn, but ultimately finished a near nine length seventh of eight. Tom Clover has previously supplied only one juvenile hurdler in the form of Appreciate; who incidentally also joined Milton Harris. Based on his four runs in the division, Appreciate looked harshly treated by his mark of 90, although he has gone on to land a four-timer this Summer. Rogue Mission’s damline largely consists of milers and three (at 3/2) who went over jumps fared poorly. Nevertheless, half-brother Rare Groove won over two miles on the flat and uncle Primus Inter Pares was a winning handicap chaser over the intermediate trip. These strands of stamina influence will have to offset the lack of same from first-crop stallion El Kabeir. From the Scat Daddy/Johannesburg line (which has enjoyed little success in the sphere), El Kabir was a graded – rather than top class – miler in America, and while his height of 16.1hh is adequate, his DI of 5.86 is a concern. Moreover, while Rogue Mission has form over ten furlongs, none of his races have been strongly run affairs. Rogue Mission has the class to make an impact first-time; particularly for a yard with a 26.67% strike-rate at Stratford. However, even if this is not the most testing juvenile hurdle held at Stratford, Rogue Mission may be one to come on with time if stamina concerns manifest.

Never No Trouble bf Donald McCain f9-0-3 (56) 62
Time Test (New Approach){2-f}(0.82) 2/2 Perceus 115 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Uttoxeter 2015
The most experienced of these on the flat, Never No Trouble comes into this contest with nine runs to her name. Five came as a two-year-old with the highlight being a half-length second in a Thirsk novice stakes over a mile in late August. This effort resulted in a mark of 67 which tumbled over her subsequent outings, the latest coming six weeks ago in a ten-furlong selling handicap at Ripon off 56. Attracting market interest for the first time in her career, she was sent off the 11/8 favourite having opened at 5/2 in the morning. Quick out of the traps, she was restrained to track the leader after a furlong before travelling smoothly into contention three furlongs from home. However, she did not find as much as she promised, ultimately splitting two older rivals of questionable professionalism. Nevertheless, this was just about Never No Trouble’s best performance since her Thirsk second and it was enough to see move from Adrian Nicholls’ to Donald McCain’s for £6,000. The two former Nicholls’ inmates to run in the sphere achieved very little in six outings between them, although five of the nine that McCain has bought out of a race have been winners. Most scored at a modest level although Collingham, who came out of a French claimer, was a decent horse last term. Donald McCain also has a strong overall record in the sphere with a healthy winner-to-runner rate of 30.09% and the yard has been in decent form as of late. However, he is not as successful with those lowly rated on the flat with none of the nineteen rated 60 or lower scoring first time out. Never No Trouble is one of three representing a first-crop sire; namely Dubawi’s son, Time Test. Winner of the York, Joel and Manhattan Stakes, Time Test is not the tallest and was untried over further than ten furlongs, but he is a nephew with the modest winning handicapper, Codeshare, with his third dam producing fair winners in Hue and Political Intrigue. From the family of Nashwan, Never No Trouble is herself a cousin of two winning jumpers in Perceus and Noble Behest, with the useful Seventh Sign appearing at 3/2. Stamina should not be an issue for Never No Trouble here, and her feasible pedigree and capable handler afford her some respect. Nevertheless, there is a class deficit to overcome and while she can match and surpass her flat form, she may benefit from an easier opening.

Rendition chf Stuart Edmunds f5-0-1 (68) 73
Ulysses (Pivotal){13-e}(0.85) 3/1 Poet 127 1st 2m½f Maiden Hurdle, Newbury 2012
Since 2004/2005, three-hundred-and-eight British and Irish trainers have saddled ten or more juvenile hurdlers. Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins have the strongest winner-to-runner rates, while in joint-third place on 55.56% are Paul Nicholls and Stuart Edmunds. The two juveniles previously bought by Stuart Edmund at the Tattersalls July Sale, Wolf Of Windlesham and Addosh would each earn black type during their first campaigns over hurdles having only cost 15,000 guineas. This year, Stuart Edmunds parted with 24,000 guineas in order to secure the 68 rated maiden, Rendition. Initially with Andrew Balding, Rendition made her debut when midfield in a Wolverhampton novice last December before returning in a similar contest at Chepstow in late April where she still looked green and was not strenuously encouraged to better her midfield finish. A few weeks later, Rendition went to Redcar for a ten furlong fillies’ race on good to soft where she lacked the pace of the two short-priced market principals, but was able to finish four lengths clear of the remainder. A twenty-one length midfield finish at Newbury can probably be dismissed as the race rather fell apart, and she posted what was probably her best effort to date early this month in a ten-furlong fillies’ handicap at Ffos Las off 72. Unable to quicken off a modestly-run contest, she ultimately finished a six-length sixth of ten in a race which is working out quite well. Of the untested jumps stallions in this contest, Rendition’s sire, Ulysses, is the most interesting of the three. The winner of an International Stakes and an Eclipse, and third in the 2017 Arc, Ulysses is not only the classiest but also has the most well-rounded profile. Out of Galileo and Oaks winner Light Shift, he comfortably has the stamina for the minimum trip over jumps and is also an adequate 16.1hh. His pedigree credentials are further supplemented by damline appearances of Champion Chaser Dodging Bullets (3/2) and Kingwell Hurdle winner Elgin (2/3). Rendition has a couple of pertinent uncles in Ace Ventura, who finished third in a juvenile hurdle on his debut, and Alessandro Volta, who won the Lingfield Derby Trial, while the third dam produced winning hurdlers Poet and High Stratos. Even with her BHA mark now down to 68, Rendition would still be the best treated on these terms and with her representing an interesting new jumps sire, brings with her a solid profile for an interesting trainer who introduced Addosh at this venue last summer.

Strong prospects
1. Rendition
Reasonable prospects
2. Rogue Mission
Feasible prospects
3. Never No Trouble
4. Dicktate
5. Mutara
Moderate prospects
6. Graffiti
Negligible prospects
.

[IanDavies]

With those that have been hurdling setting a low bar, Rendition, with her Flat OR of 68 and the weapon that is the 7lb gender allowance, appeals.

I look above me to find not only true greatness but that I am, for once, in the very best of company.

I have doubled my bet accordingly.

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[sporting sam]

Would be tempted to go for Milton Harris ( as he clearly has the Indian sign in juvenile hurdling) but the breeding suggests will need the run.
As you say Davies, the fillies weight is a key factor. Rendition it is, with Harris win without rendition.
Fascinating assessment BH thank you.

[Bachelors Hall]

At least the “strong prospect” beat the book…

Turns out that the “ample scope for Mutara to leave that debut performance well behind” was realised at a venue where experience often pays.

[Bachelors Hall]

Strap yourselves in… To mark an eighteen day break for the juvenile hurdlers, we are in for a real treat tomorrow. Guaranteed to be best three-runner summer juvenile held for at least twenty years!

Market Rasen – 30th July – Preview

Since the 2004/05 season, there have been twenty instances of three-runner juvenile hurdles held in Britain and Ireland. Amongst the sixty participants who constitute such novel events are the Grade One winners Footpad and Balder Succes, Grade Two winners Navajo Pass and Far West, and Grade Three winner Gewncily Berbas who, incidentally, also beat his two other rivals in the Grade Two Juvenile Hurdle at Fairyhouse in 2015. With the withdrawal of Rolypolymoly, Market Rasen is set to host the first three-runner juvenile hurdle to have been held in the summer during this time period. On paper, the race looks like a match although with the two principals demonstrating questionable attitudes, it could also be of interest to those who subscribe to that wives tale about the outsider of three. A sharp, largely flat and right-handed track the course’s winning DIs of 1.28 median, 1.69 mean, are amongst the ten highest in the country although the completion rate of 84% is in the lower third. Notwithstanding, the ground is currently described as good and while rain is forecast overnight, that none of the three runners are known to set the pace means stamina demands should not be too exacting.

Captain Square chg Tom Lacey f6-0-2 (69) 74 j2-1-1 (103) 85 97
Sir Percy (Duke Of Marmalade){1-m}(0.33) 3/1 Overturn 167 2nd Champion Hurdle, Cheltenham 2012
By Sir Percy (Knight Salute, Parliament Hill, winner-to-runner rate of 33.33%) and from the family of Chocala (2/1), Fisher Bridge (3/1) and Overturn (3/1), Captain Square probably has the most interesting and complete pedigree seen in the division this season. Moreover, while he was a six-race maiden on the flat for Andrew Balding, his official rating 69 is the highest brought into the race. His first three outings all came over seven furlongs last July where he followed a midfield finish at Sandown (behind recent Thoroughbred Stakes third Sonny Liston) with third (behind 1000 Guineas runner-up Prosperous Voyage) and fourth (behind Royal Lodge winner Royal Patronage) place finishes at Epsom. Captain Square got no closer five lengths to the aforementioned, but he did shape as though further would suit and his allotted mark of 72 was not unduly harsh. However, following an eight month break and a gelding operation, this potential did not play out in practice as Captain Square failed to make any real impression in a pair of twelve furlong handicaps in April. At Southwell, he failed to settle in a falsely run contest, but had no such excuse next time at Lingfield where he beat only one home. Captain Sqaure’s sights were lowered for his return to turf at Leicester and while all but one of his rivals were rated higher, his receiving weight all round and being much the least exposed saw him sent off the even money favourite. However, he failed to settle once again and although he led momentarily at the distance, was clear second best on the day. Following the race, Captain Square was claimed for £12,000 to join a Tom Lacey yard which, prior to Newton Abbot, was two winners from ten in the sphere; both scoring at the first time of asking. Andrew Balding has supplied 108 juveniles to the division since 2004/05 and twenty of those were winners; including the likes of Knight Salute, Hollow Tree and Flaxen Flare. The improvement rare of 22.78% is a low one and of the six previous juveniles who were bought out of selling and claiming races, not one win was achieved from their twenty-eight runs combined. This dire record was ended by Captain Square when he made a successful start to his new career at Newton Abbot nearly three weeks ago; albeit in most fortuitous circumstances. Not without supporters, he started the day as 6/5 favourite and while a plunge horse forced him out, he was still solid in the market; starting the race as 2/1 second favourite. Taking a keen hold just behind the vanguard, there was room for improvement in his jumping as he was low at the first, went left at the third, hopped over the fourth and skewed over the next. As the field left the back second time, Captain Square was the only one to just about keep tabs on the near-certain winner who led him by around four lengths when leaving him in a clear lead at the penultimate flight. Ponderous in his own company, he had to be chivvied along on the run to the last where he was ponderous. Nevertheless, he was so far clear that nothing more was asked of him as he coasted home by fifteen lengths. Given how the contest developed and how Captain Square closed out the race, it is improbable that he would have fared better than second had the leader maintained verticality. The winning time was modest and the would-be-winner was well beaten next time out. Captain Square’s second jumps outing came three weeks ago in a much more competitive contest at Stratford where he was sent off the 7/2 joint third-favourite. Tucking in behind the leaders and racing with enthusiasm, his hurdling was cleaner and more assured than on his debut. Going over the hill on the far side, he moved into a share of the lead although he was caught flat footed turning for home. Moreover, though he traded at less than his starting price in-running, he did not finish with any particular potency as he was relegated to fourth on the run-in before recapturing third from a beaten rival at the line; a finish which could have indicated a lack of pace, a lack of resolve, or both. Given that this is a three-runner contest for inexperienced riders that could be ran in a muddling fashion on a speed favouring track, neither possibility would bode well in these conditions. Nevertheless, the race has since produced three wins and a third (behind one of the winners) from the four subsequent runs which is difficult to ignore – even if this Summer’s juveniles have been a moderate bunch. In terms of breeding, experience and form under both codes, Captain Square has the strongest chance and the yard is enjoying a decent spell of form. Lack of pace and possible resolve are matters of obvious concerns in these circumstances, but perhaps if young Finn Lambert is able to take the initiative and not get into a dogfight (although he has won in close finishes during his short career), then Captain Square could be the master of his own destiny.

Anger Management bg John Ryan f6-0-0 (44) 43
Ribchester (Nayef){22-a}(1.22) 3/2 Allow Me 129 1st 2m3½f Handicap Hurdle (120), Catterick 2012
Four-time Group One winner and dual Champion Miler Ribchester is set to have his first jumpers this season. No taller than average, Ribchester is of the speedy Iffraaj-Zafonic sireline and his third dam was the Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Mehthaaf. Nevertheless, one uncle, Tactic won over a mile and six while another, Bangkok, is being marketed as a dual-purpose sire. While half-brother Golconda Prince was unable to build on his fifth in a Huntington juvenile, another uncle, Taaresh, landed four low-grade hurdles over the minimum trip at Worcester and Wincanton. The first into the fold for Ribchester’s jumps stallion career is the six race maiden Anger Management, whose official flat rating of 44 exceeds his accomplishments. Beaten a combined seventy-seven lengths in two starts at Newmarket last Autumn, his four runs in 2022, between eight and fourteen furlongs, have seen him finish no closer than twelve lengths to the winner. While the fair handicap hurdler, Allow Me, appears at 3/2 on the damline, six others within that proximity have achieved the sum total of nothing over hurdles from a combined twenty-four starts (although Nicholas Bill (Ghofar, Bollin William, Just Jasmine) is out of the fifth dam). Trainer John Ryan does have a decent enough record in the sphere with five winners from twenty-one juveniles, although only one of those would score first-time-out.

Via Serica bg Stuart Edmunds f6-0-2 (63) 68
Golden Horn (Nayef){14-a}(1.50) 2/2 Douglas Dc 126 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Tramore 2022
Since 2004/2005, three-hundred-and-eight British and Irish trainers have saddled ten or more juvenile hurdlers. Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins have the strongest winner-to-runner rates, while in third place on 55.56% is Paul Nicholls. Prior to Thursday’s juvenile hurdle at Stratford, Stuart Edmunds held a share of third place with Paul Nicholls although Rendition’s poor debut showing has seen his rate drop to 52.63%. Attempting to arrest this deterioration is the yard’s second juvenile of the season, Via Serica. Starting his career with Brian Meehan, the entirety of Winter separated Via Serica’s first two outings which came in maidens at Nottingham in October over an extended mile, and Newbury in April over eleven furlongs. He was green on each occasion, finishing nearer last than first with upwards of thirteen lengths between himself and the winner. Thirteen lengths was also the margin of defeat in a ten-furlong Windsor maiden, although being a well stung out field where he was within a couple of lengths of two subsequent winners, it did mark a career best. Stepping up in trip and into handicap company in mid-May, Via Serica was a three length third over a mile and a half at Bath off 64; looking green under pressure but, incidentally, finishing ahead of the season’s leading juvenile to date in Mucuna. Sporting first-time cheekpieces, he filled the same position at Windsor five days later where he led briefly at the distance but while plugging on, did not appear to throw himself into every stride. This would be his last run out of Manton Lodge Stables; a yard whose graduates have a fair winner-to-runner rate of 19.05% in juvenile hurdles, and a lesser 33.33% improvement rate. He was withdrawn prior to passing through Tattersalls at Ascot – the twelve such juveniles leaving Brian Meehan in this fashion won one race from forty-four starts. Via Serica’s debut for Stuart Edmunds (winless on the flat since December 2016) came at Sandown over a mile and six where he never left the rear, drifted when making his challenge at the distance before weakening late on to finish six lengths behind the runner-up (the well-handicapped winner in a different league). Making the switch to hurdling, Via Serica has a feasible pedigree for the sphere with Golden Horn showing a 28.57% winner-to-runner rate, cousin Douglas Dc winning a maiden juvenile, and four relatives at 3/2 on the damline (Mikado, Bombyx, National Trust and Freedom Now) all successful over jumps. On official flat ratings, Via Serica is the best treated in the field and jockey James Davies is by far the most experienced of the three. He is in good hands for his introduction although the lack of jumping experience and questionable resolve will count against him, as does the Edmunds yard having another runner completely tail off on Friday.

Strong prospects
1. Captain Square
Reasonable prospects
2. Via Serica
Feasible prospects
.
Moderate prospects
3. Anger Management
Negligible prospects
.

[IanDavies]

Marginally Via Serica for me.

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[Bachelors Hall]

Only priced up by one firm so far but would probably be the value play.

[IanDavies]

BH gets it right yet again at the ultimately surprisingly-rewarding odds of 8/13.

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[Bachelors Hall]

That was unexpectedly satisfying. More so as the RTV pundit was saying beforehand that Captain Square’s potentially having to make the running would be a negative. If only he had read the last sentence the horse’s profile…

[Author]

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