Juvenile Hurdlers 2023/24

[Bachelors Hall]

They are back, and so too is this thread.

Been covering for the boss at work this week as well as having a delightful time travelling to the North East due to the train strikes. As such, I am going to start with a couple of stats tables related to trainers and sires, and preview the curtain-raiser in note form. Any ideas or requests for stats/data are welcomed and will be fulfilled if possible. Any questions, comments or suggestions, please feel free to ask.

I AM NOT A TIPSTER. I AM NEVER A TIPSTER. NOTHING I WRITE IS EVER A TIP. THIS CONTENT IS SOLELY INTENDED TO INFORM, NEVER ADVISE

HEXHAM 3RD JUNE – PREVIEW NOTES

Unless stated, all figures relate to British and Irish juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05
For context, the average strike rate (SR) across all juveniles is 9.54%, winner-runner (WR) 19.55%, improvement rate (IMP) 36.90%, clear round (CR) 96.07%, prize money per race (PMPR) £1107.31

Race History/Stats
* Traditional curtain raiser, held each year since 2008 apart from 2020
* Average winning Dis 0.89 median, 1.14 mean. Figures lower only at Chepstow and Cheltenham.
* Average winners’ seasonal RPR of 103.43 over a stone lower than standard juvenile hurdle.
* Four graduates have gone on to contest the Triumph; Simarian (1st 2008, 7th Triumph), Lindenhurst (2nd 2013, 9th Triumph), Koi Dodville (1st 2021, 11th Triumph), Rupestrian (1st 2009, PU Triumph).
* Dinarius (5th 2008), Ocean Transit (4th 2008) and Linger (UR 2016) eventually earned RPRs exceeding 130
Course Info
* Undulating, galloping, left-handed track.
* Average winning Dis of 0.89 median, 1.11 mean are 0.46 lower than average runner; greatest discrepancy of all racecourses.
* Clear round 97.24% (+1.17 cf. standard), completion rate 77.91% (-9.36 cf. standard) lower only at Southwell.
* Odds-on SR of 40% is lowest of all British courses with 10 or more qualifiers.
* No discernible pace advantage
Ground & Pace
* Good. Dry weather forecast, watering to maintain.
* Three have made running in past. Solid pace anticipated.

City Of Ruins bg Donald McCain Unraced
Nathaniel (New Approach){7-f}(0.53) 2/1 Devilment 150 2nd Anniversary Hurdle (G1), Aintree 2015
Breeding
* Nathaniel 27.5% WR, including Zanahiyr, Burning Victory and Navajo Pass. Won this race in 2019 with Green Etoile.
* Full-brother Tuddenham Green won two Juveniles last term and finsihed second in Wensleydale.
* Nephew of Devilment (2nd Anniversary) and Nasee (minor staying hurdle winner)
Source
* Cost 7,000gns as yearling at Tatts October Sale.
* Donald McCain one win from five with racecourse debutants (Sacre Pierre a three-time winner in 2021/22).
Trainer
* 38.89% WR since 2018/19.
* 12 runners without a win at Hexam, 2nd in 2018 running with Weinberg.
Summary
* Outside of Junior NH Hurdles, previously unraced juvenile hurdling debutants have a first-time-out strike-rate of just 2.35%. Nevertheless, one such winner was trained by Donald McCain and this pedigree is an especially strong one for the time of year.

Hourless bg Alan King f5-1-0 (49) 57
Time Test (Green Desert){14-c}(1.36) 3/1 Blue Bit 107 1st 2m Handicap Hurdle, Tramore 1997
Breeding
* Time Test second season, one juvenile to date; Never No Trouble r9w1 RPR91
* Green Desert below average influence in juvenile hurdles (15.79% WR damsire, 15.38% WR sire)
* Family of Kutub, Blue Bit (3/1) only winning jumper of ten+ relatives from 3rd dam.
Source
* Cost 70,000gns at last year’s Tatts Guineas Sale.
* Self-trained Alan King juveniles 51.06% WR.
* Those rated 61 or below have 15% first time strike rate. However, those rated 56 or below are only one winner from thirteen, with Proprioception’s sole win from six coming in a Southwell mares’ handicap off 92.
Trainer
* Most winners of any trainer since 2004/05, 47.13% WR, 48.57% IMP
* Three runs in this race, one win (Green Etoile 2019), one second (City Dreamer 2017)
Flat Profile
* No show on first three outings, but won handicap debut off 47 at Wolverhampton over 1m1½f.
* Raced keenly in rear off modest tempo, green under pressure but led inside final furlong winning with bit to spare.
* Raised two pounds, still green when one paced 5th last time at Bath
Summary
* Represents most successful trainer in the sphere and does have a win to his name. However, that came at a decidedly modest level and there is also a concern that he could find himself unbalanced around Hexham.

Indication Rocket bg Rebecca Menzies f9-1-2 (61) 64
Dandy Man (Rip Van Winkle){14-c}(0.71) 3/1 Rocky Wednesday 140 3rd Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Fairyhouse 2011
Breeding
* Dandy Man 7.14%WR, 0-12 IMP. Chatez (Alan King rated 96 on flat) only winner.
* Rip Van Winkle 0-3 as damsire, 7.69% WR as sire.
* Third dam produced useful winners Bohemian Spirit and Rocky Wednesday
Source
* 16,000gns as 2yo at Tatts Guineas Sale.
* Sole self-trained flat recruit beaten only hurdles start.
Trainer
* 62.50% Improvement rate since 2018/19 is highest in GB.
* 26.67% First time strike rate, including three such winners last term. First juvenile at Hexham.
Flat Profile
* Most experienced runner in the field courtesy of nine outings. Modest on first three starts over 6f, but has steadily improved for switch to handicaps and step up in trip.
* Runner-up in slowly run 10f Newcastle Nursery in September, off the mark penultimate outing in mile handicap off 55 at same track in early May.
* Had run of race up front, but pulled clear again when caught inside distance to win by 2½l. No subsequent winners but those out since have run to form.
* Last seen ten days later finishing third at Wolverhampton over a further furlong-and-a-half off 61. Travelled strongly but no extra when headed turning for home.
Summary
*Rebecca Menzies is a very capable trainer of juveniles who finds improvement from her charges more often than not; which is very much a positive for a horse who is only a few pounds from the top rated. However, while the damline is sound, the sire and damsire have poor records and stamina around Hexham is not assured.

Uncle Matthew bg Evan Williams f6-1-0 (65) 69
Fast Company (Manduro){13-c}(0.78) 3/1 Scriptwriter 134 5th Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle (G2,133), Ascot 2009
Breeding
* Fast Company since 2018/19; 41.18% WR, 22.73% SR (2nd highest) 64.29% IMP (5th highest)
* Manduro 3-12 WR, 62.50% IMP as damsire, 32.14% WR as sire
* Half-brother pulled up sole jumps start. Nephew of Hunter’s Light. Fourth dam produced Darshaan, along with useful jumpers Daraydan and Darialann.
Source
* £16,000 Tatts Ascot March
* ex-John Gosden’s have below-average record in juveniles; WR 18.35%, IMP 22.97%
* First to join Evan Williams from Gosden’s
* Williams 31.75% WR with those bought at public auction. 29.79% for those costing £20,000 or less. Ex-Gosdens 18.60% WR <= £20,000
Trainer
* 27.97% WR, although only 9.52% since 2017/18
* 22.03% Strike rate during summer.
* Two runners in this contest; Simarian (1st 2008 – strongest juvenile graduate from contest; 1st Prestbury, 7th Triumph) Quickdrawmcgraw (2nd 2022)
Flat Profile
* Five-race 2yo campaign starting in Autumn saw him finish no closer than fourth with a BHA mark of 62.
* Made winning return in 1m3f Southwell handicap off 62; starting slowly, prominent halfway and stayed on dourly to prevail by head. Third, fourth and fifth all placed next time.
Summary
* Trainer not as prolific as he was previously, but still managed a second in this contest last year with 52 rated Quickdrawmcgraw. Pedigree is very solid, neither stamina nor attitude would be a concern, and the his Southwell win is as strong as any British form in this line-up. However, those leaving John Gosden’s often underperform when switched to hurdles.

Max Of Stars bf Ollie Pears f4-0-0 (55) 57
Cloth Of Stars (Rock Of Gibraltar){31}(0.67) 3/2 Tiger Roll 174 1st Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2014
Breeding
* Cloth Of Stars first crop. 1st Ganay, 2nd and 3rd in Arc. 2/3 Elgin 3/2 Dodging Bullets, 1.62m
* Sea The Stars 35% WR as juvenile grandsire, 33.33% WR as sire.
* Two juveniles to date in France, each placing at moderate level.
* Rock of Gibraltar 13.95% WR as damsire.
* Third dam, On Air, 4th in Kennel Gate. Produced useful Khachaturian and dam of Tiger Roll
Source
* €8,500 as yearling from Arqana
* Sole placed juvenile My Brother Jack, trained on flat by Pears
Trainer
* 0-6 WR. No runners at Hexham. 100% IMP courtesy of My Brother Jack (sole qualifier)
Jockey
* Sean Quinlan won 2017 running with 8/1 shot Costa Percy
Flat Profile
* Made debut in February. Beaten at least eleven lengths first three outings in maidens at Southwell and Doncaster.
* Handicap debut off 56 at Southwell over 1m4f. Raced keenly with uncontested lead, headed final furlong, flashed tail under pressure. Finished 2¼l fourth of six.
Summary
* Distant relative of Tiger Roll and first-season sire not without potential. However, while best form on flat came last time out, it still leaves enough to find and her attitude was not massively encouraging.

Waitara chf David Pipe f6-2-1 (30.0/66) TF68
Recoletos (Hernando){1-t}(0.54) 1/2 Theamoi 62.5 1st 3550m 3yo Handicap Hurdle (59.0), Fontainebleau 2022
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/waitara
Breeding
* Recoletos first juvenile runner. Won Moulin and d’Ispahan, 3rd French Derby. Half-brother to winning hurdler Pedregalejo. 1.63m
* Whipper’s sole juvenile stallion Very Nice Name 14.29% WR. Whipper himself 20% WR
* Hernando 29.27% WR as damsire inc. Punjabi, Adagio and Gaelic Warrior. 60.71% IMP
* Nephew of Timos. 0.5 Thea (1st 4yo Hurdle, Auteuil), 0.5 Ticinello (3rd 4yo Hurdle Enghien). 2/1 Trillion Stars, 3/1 Thagus (both winners)
Source
* David Pipe 7-22 first time ex-French Claimers; including last two winners of this race, Koi Dodville and Free Chakarte (both bought off Flat).
* Waitara second least expensive of such horses, only Jilaijone lower at €10,806; won first time at Fontwell last term for same owner.
* First export of Thierry & Gaël Lemer.
Trainer
* David Pipe 46.67% WR since 2018/19 (5th highest) 38.46% SR during June.
* Last four runners in this race; Free Chakarte (1st 2022), Koi Dodville (1st 2021), Bathwick Scanno (2nd 2011), Lucky Quay (1st 2010)
Flat Profile
* Beaten by at least 12l on both outings at two, but began 3yo campaign with win in Pau 2000m claimer (retained for €11,001)
* Forgiven sixth place finish next time having missed break. Second penultimate outing; winner (2kg lighter) had run of race, stayed on well from remainder.
* Last seen winning 2100m Toulouse claimer in mid March. Broke slowly but soon in lead racing keenly. Caught at distance but responded generously for pressure; winning decisively by length and a half.
* Fifth placed finisher only subsequent winner. Nevertheless, runner-up has since been consistent in handicaps off 62. Mark in mid-high 60s would be appropriate.
Summary
* Last two runnings have gone to David Pipe trained ex-French claimers, and while Free Chakarte and Koi Dodville had slightly higher ratings, Waitara still emerges on top at these weights. Moreover, she has shown consistent form throughout 2023 and a good attitude to complement same. First-season sire yet to be tested but has perfectly reasonable credentials and the damsire and damlines are encouraging. Only concern would be a lack of form shown on ground better than soft.

Strong Prospects
1. Waitara
Reasonable Prospects
2. Uncle Matthew
3. Indication Rocket
Feasible Prospects
4. City Of Ruins
Moderate Prospects
5. Hourless
6. Max Of Stars
Negligible Prospects
.

[IanDavies]

Oh, hello stranger!

Waitara for me too, actually.

I’d say I’d been worried about you in your absence, but I always keep a remote eye on you on Twitter because

1. You’re a top bloke

and

2. You’re one of the very few who are actually well worth reading.

Welcome back to TRF!

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Helcatmudwrestler]

Always enjoy reading your posts BH , the data you have is just amazing .
Ive always enjoyed the juvenile hurdle division . The second chance to make good for some of them . Seeing who could rack up a sequence from end July at the Devon meets , until as my Dad used to say the good ones come out in November .
From earliest racing memories The Grey Bomber was very good before his accident . Others i remember racking up sequences were Hopscotch ( it was 10 or 11 wins by season end ) . High Knowl i liked too .
One other i remember was horse called Big Speil , iam sure he pot hunted a few back in day , before the good ones came out . Cannot find any record of him now , would be early 80s , but he would pop up regular in results read out from other meeting in late summer on Channel 4 in days before SIS and RTV etc . Iam away from uk now but follow from afar , with the Aussies picking up some good ones who would go hurdling and influx French its changed a bit it seems .
Iam surprised how many have made Cheltenham for the Triumph out of that Hexham race , ic have guessed none if asked .

Looking forward to following your previews .

[IanDavies]

Friday’s contest at Aintree seems to have slipped through the net.

Meanwhile, Hexham winner Hourless reappears on the Flat at Nottingham on Monday.

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[apracing]

Big Spiel Timeform comment from 1983/84 season:

“Won 2 juvenile hurdles at Devon and Exeter in August, making all on second occasion; blinkered when second at Taunton in September, not seen out again until May; acts on hard going.”

Trained by Martin Pipe of course. He was pulled up on that run in May and never reappeared.

[Helcatmudwrestler]

Thanks AP racing , glad the horse Big Speil was not a false memory although quite clearly my memory of his alleged ability is slightly warped

[IanDavies]

Like Lana Del Rey at Glastonbury, Bachelors Hall seems to be spending increasing amounts of time in his trailer having his hair done between stage appearances.

However, seeing as the great man – unlike Ms Del Rey – doesn’t charge extortionate (or indeed any) amounts to watch him periodically perform, he can always be forgiven.

There’s a race at Newton Abbot this very Tuesday evening and I think Waitara, withdrawn at Hexham, might be the one here.

She’s a half sister to seven winners, including one over hurdles in France, don’tcha know, and a winner in said country herself on the Flat at Pau and Toulouse.

An OR of 66, given the generous 7lb gender allowance on top, looks a mighty number in the context of this feast.

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Bachelors Hall]

I am long overdue a haircut… I typically lose the winter coat at around Cheltenham time, but I am really vibing with it at the moment. I am sure that the imminent receding and greying of my hair is playing some part in my decision to persevere with it for as long as I can. Perhaps that is having an impact on my ability to read juvenile hurdles?

Newton Abbot 27th JUNE – PREVIEW NOTES

Unless stated, all figures relate to British and Irish juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05
For context, the average strike rate (SR) across all juveniles is 9.54%, winner-runner (WR) 19.55%, improvement rate (IMP) 36.90%, clear round (CR) 96.07%, prize money per race (PMPR) £1107.31
FS = Finishing speed from last.

Race History/Stats
* Introduced in 2021, two runnings to date
* No previous runner competed outside of ordinary company and only the two winners achieved a seasonal RPR exceeding 100 (both would also win again as juveniles).

Course Info
* Flat, very sharp, left-handed track
* Average winning Dis of 1.33 median, 1.47 mean are within highest third of all courses, as is the discrepancy against beaten horses
* Clear round rate of 94.20% second lowest in Great Britain, 90.91% rate for newcomers fifth lowest in country. Completion rate of 79.44% fourth lowest in country.
* Odds-on SR of 50% is within lowest third of racecourses.
* Average winners’ seasonal RPR of 108 lower only at Fakenham, Hereford and Uttoxeter
* Frontrunners can be at a disadvantage.

Ground & Pace
* Good, good to firm in places. Dry weather forecast with rain not expected to reach course by race time, watering to maintain.
* One has made running on flat in France while another rather tore away on hurdling debut. Solid pace anticipated.

Ceejaybe chg Jo Davis f2-0-0 (-) 29
Free Eagle (Duke Of Marmalade){9-c}(0.75) 3/1 Cyborg 122 1st 2m Maiden Hurdle, Ballinrobe 2010
Breeding
* Free Eagle 17.65% WR, 41.67% IMP
* Duke Of Marmalade 20% WR as damsire, 12.82% as sire
* Cotillion (3/2) only other jumps winner from third dam
Source
* Cost 4,500gns as yearling
* Juveniles trained on flat by trainer 0-8 WR, none improved on flat form
Trainer
* 11.11% WR, 0-16 first time out
Flat Profile
* Last on both starts on all weather over a mile in Feb/Mar, beaten at least 22½l on each occasion
Summary
* Not the worst pedigree but did not show enough in two flat runs to suggest he can be competitive at this juncture

Kilcummin grg Mark Gillard f7-0-1 (57) 64
Mastercraftsman (Dalakhani){9-b}(0.64) 3/1 Cult Classic 58.0 1st 3400m Conditions Hurdle, Pompadour 1999
Breeding
* Mastercraftsman 26.21% WR, 27 individual winners since 2004/05; behind only Galileo and Montjeu
* Dalakhani 17.02% WR as damsire
* Half-brother Cardinal Rule a modest maiden over jumps. Granddam Insight finished third in French Oaks, sibling of Saffron Walden
Source
* Cost £7,000 at the Tatts Ascot June sale via Neil King
* Most expensive juvenile of seven bought from sales by trainer, sole winner Karl Marx (r13w1)
* Sole ex-Joseph Parr juvenile 76 rated Age Of Sail – r3w0 juvRPR 111
Trainer
* 11.54% WR, 0-23 first time out
* First time CR rate of 86.96% lowest in lineup
Flat Profile
* Three runs at 2yo earned opening BHA mark of 65 which has dropped to 59 over course of four outings since April
* Should stay minimum trip over hurdles, given to wandering under pressure
Summary
* Leading juvenile sire, has not build on moderate 2yo campaign and still looks green. Potential to do better in due course.

Max Of Stars bf Ollie Pears f4-0-0 (55) 57 j1-0-1 (-) 83
Cloth Of Stars (Rock Of Gibraltar){31}(0.67) 3/2 Tiger Roll 174 1st Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2014
Breeding
* Cloth Of Stars first crop. 1st Ganay, 2nd and 3rd in Arc. 2/3 Elgin 3/2 Dodging Bullets, 1.62m
* Sea The Stars 35% WR as juvenile grandsire, 33.33% WR as sire.
* Four juveniles to date in France, two placed and one winning claimer
* Rock of Gibraltar 13.64% WR as damsire.
* Third dam, On Air, 4th in Kennel Gate. Produced useful Khachaturian and dam of Tiger Roll
Source
* €8,500 as yearling from Arqana
* Sole placed juvenile My Brother Jack, trained on flat by Pears
Trainer
* 0-8 WR. No runners at Newton Abbot. 100% IMP courtesy of My Brother Jack (sole qualifier)
Jockey
* Brian Hughes’s first ride in Newton Abbot juvenile, juvenile SR 15.04% highest in lineup
Flat Profile
* Made debut in February. Beaten at least eleven lengths first three outings in maidens at Southwell and Doncaster.
* Handicap debut off 56 at Southwell over 1m4f. Raced keenly with uncontested lead, headed final furlong, flashed tail under pressure. Finished 2¼l fourth of six.
Jumps Form
3/6/23 HEX 2m GGS 2/5 8.5l Hourless (NTO r0-w0-p0) FS-85% Rtg 83
(18/1|9/2) Steady1, big2, steady & close 5, blundered 8. Took keen hold, pulled self back into lead passing stands, clear going into back, headed home turn, held on for second.
Summary
* Distant relative of Tiger Roll and first-season sire not without potential. Best effort on flat came also most recent despite pulling hard and faltering late. Performed simililarly on hurdles bow at Hexham. Sets standard on jumps form, albeit a very modest one, and though patently vulnerable to anything with ability and aptitude, should still run her race and might well be better suited by Newton Abbot (even if it is not a course which always favours frontrunners).

Quizlet bg Mark Gillard f6-0-0 (55) 58
Time Test (Sakhee’s Secret){22-d}(1.00) 4/3 Band Of Outlaws 147 1st Fred Winter Hurdle (G3,139), Cheltenham 2019
Breeding
* Time Test two winners from two runners in juvenile hurdles (Never No Trouble and Hourless)
* Sakhee’s Secret 0-2 as damsire, 21.43% WR as sire
* 2/1 Talented Kid (PU only start), only close relative with jumps experience
Source
* Fetched 1,600gns at Tatts April Online
* Second least expensive juvenile of seven bought from sales by trainer, sole winner Karl Marx (r13w1) cheapest at £1,200
Trainer
* 11.54% WR, 0-23 first time out
* First time CR rate of 86.96% lowest in lineup
Jockey
* David Noonan only jockey in line-up to have won on juvenile at Newton Abbot
Flat Profile
* Unplaced in six outings, closest when 3¾l sixth of seven in Feb Wolverhampton handicap off 62. Had shown tendency to pull.
* Raced rather lazily on sole outing for new trainer when beating just one home in Salisbury handicap, 20l behind winner
Summary
* Both of sire’s juveniles to date have been winners. However, remainder of profile is patchy and questions to answer after modest reappearance/stable debut.

Uncle Matthew bg Evan Williams f6-1-0 (65) 69 j1-0-0 (-) 79
Fast Company (Manduro){13-c}(0.78) 3/1 Scriptwriter 134 5th Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle (G2,133), Ascot 2009
Breeding
* Fast Company since 2018/19; 38.89% WR, 22.39% SR (2nd highest) 64.29% IMP (5th highest)
* Won 2021 renewal of this race with Langafel
* Manduro 3-13 WR, 62.50% IMP as damsire, 32.14% WR as sire
* Half-brother pulled up sole jumps start. Nephew of Hunter’s Light. Fourth dam produced Darshaan, along with useful jumpers Daraydan and Darialann.
Source
* £16,000 Tatts Ascot March
* ex-John Gosden’s have below-average record in juveniles; WR 18.35%, IMP 22.97%
* First to join Evan Williams from Gosden’s
* Williams 31.75% WR with those bought at public auction. 29.79% for those costing £20,000 or less. Ex-Gosdens 18.60% WR <= £20,000
Trainer
* 27.73% WR, although only 10% since 2018/19
* 21.67% Strike rate during summer.
* No runners in race but 4 wins from 20 at Newton Abbot including with Barizan twice in 2009
Jockey
* Adam Wedge 94.74% CR lowest in lineup of jockeys with >100 juvenile rides
Flat Profile
* Five-race 2yo campaign starting in Autumn saw him finish no closer than fourth with a BHA mark of 62.
* Made winning return in 1m3f Southwell handicap off 62; starting slowly, prominent halfway and stayed on dourly to prevail by head. Third, fourth and fifth all placed next time.
Jumps Form
3/6/23 HEX 2m GGS 4/5 19.25l Hourless (NTO r0-w0-p0) FS-86% Rtg 79
(3/1|7/2) Steady hop1,2,3 steady slow 4, hop skew 5,wandered 6. Mid div, began to struggle midway along back, unable to quicken, came home own time straight.
Summary
* Trainer not as prolific in division as he was previously and recent yard form not inspiring, but has decent record in Newton Abbot juveniles. Pedigree is very solid, neither stamina nor attitude would be a concern, and flat form is strongest British form in this lineup by good half-stone. However, those leaving John Gosden’s often underperform when switched to hurdles, Evan Williams juveniles typically perform first time and confidence over hurdles needs to improve from Hexham where behind Max Of Stars.

Vitani grf Adam West f7-0-1 (42) 46
Roaring Lion (Dubawi){10-b}(1.91) 0.5 Iron Heart 114 1st 2m½f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (107), Newbury 2021
Breeding
* Roaring Lion first juvenile hurdler, won Eclipse, International, Irish Champion and QEII
* Grandsire Kitten’s Joy 1-7 WR as sire, sole stallion son Bobby’s Kitten 2-5 WR in GB/IRE
* Dubawi 26.92% WR as damsire, 33.33% as sire
* Half-brother Iron Heart won handicap as a juvenile, uncle Red Riverman won one hurdle and four chases, distant relative of Teaatral (5/2)
Source
* Ran once for James Ferguson before sold at Tatts December Mares for 8,000gns
* Trainer’s sole winning juvenile, Rolypolymoly, ran for Adam West on flat (BHA 63)
Trainer
* One winner from ten, none won first time out.
Flat Profile
* Shown only modest form in six starts for new trainer. Largely consistent since winter break without running beyond 50
* Stamina and attitude seem fine, appears to get unbalanced on undulating tracks.
Summary
* First runner over hurdles for ill-fated Roaring Lion, rest of pedigree perfectly reasonable. Conditions are such that she should run to form, although that is of a modest standard even in context of this lineup.

Waitara chf David Pipe f6-2-1 (30.0/66) TF68
Recoletos (Hernando){1-t}(0.54) 1/2 Theamoi 62.5 1st 3550m 3yo Handicap Hurdle (59.0), Fontainebleau 2022
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/waitara
Breeding
* Recoletos first juvenile runner. Won Moulin and d’Ispahan, 3rd French Derby. Half-brother to winning hurdler Pedregalejo. 1.63m
* Whipper’s sole juvenile stallion Very Nice Name 14.29% WR. Whipper himself 20% WR
* Hernando 29.27% WR as damsire inc. Punjabi, Adagio and Gaelic Warrior. 60.71% IMP
* Nephew of Timos. 0.5 Thea (1st 4yo Hurdle, Auteuil), 0.5 Ticinello (3rd 4yo Hurdle Enghien). 2/1 Trillion Stars, 3/1 Thagus (both winners)
Source
* 40.99% WR overall
* 7-22 first time ex-French Claimers
* Waitara second least expensive of such horses, only Jilaijone lower at €10,806; won first time at Fontwell last term for same owner.
* First export of Thierry & Gaël Lemer.
Trainer
* David Pipe 46.67% WR since 2018/19 (5th highest) 38.46% SR during June.
* Four winners from thirty-four in Newton Abbot juveniles
Flat Profile
* Beaten by at least 12l on both outings at two, but began 3yo campaign with win in Pau 2000m claimer (retained for €11,001)
* Forgiven sixth place finish next time having missed break. Second penultimate outing; winner (2kg lighter) had run of race, stayed on well from remainder.
* Last seen winning 2100m Toulouse claimer in mid March. Broke slowly but soon in lead racing keenly. Caught at distance but responded generously for pressure; winning decisively by length and a half.
* Fifth placed finisher only subsequent winner. Nevertheless, runner-up has since been consistent in handicaps off 62. Mark in mid-high 60s would be appropriate.
Summary
* Was initially set to line up in Hexham contest where last two runnings had gone to David Pipe trained ex-French claimers but for minor setback. Emerges on top at these weights, has shown consistent form throughout 2023 and a good attitude to complement same. First-season sire yet to be tested but has perfectly reasonable credentials and the damsire and damlines are encouraging. Slight concern about a lack of form shown on ground better than soft, but has much the strongest profile in a weak looking contest.

Outstanding Prospects
1. Waitara
Reasonable Prospects
.
Feasible Prospects
2. Max Of Stars
3. Uncle Matthew
Moderate Prospects
4. Kilcummin
5. Quizlet
6. Vitani
Negligible Prospects
7. Ceejaybe

[IanDavies]

Delighted to see Bachelors Hall back and, though it’s NOT a tipping item, I am nevertheless thrilled to see Waitara handed “Outstanding Prospects.”

To Devon!

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[apracing]

It’s a long round trip from Malton for one runner at the meeting, Max Of Stars. And a similarly long trip for Brian Hughes for one ride.

But I suppose there aren’t many option for a juvenile hurdler at present.

[TakeYourTime]

Good to see you back, BH. Another informative write up but I’m going to chance a ‘moderate prospect’ today with a free bet courtesy of Sky Bet.

Kilcummin finished 5th of 6 behind Hexham Juvenile Hurdle winner, Hourless, at Wolverhampton in April. The winner got the perfect split on the day whilst Kilcummin was widest of all but stayed on nicely. He carried in excess of a stone more than the winner on the day which, in theory, gives him a chance when you consider Hourless beat today’s short-priced fav, Max Of Stars, shouldering 7lbs more.

Kilcummin 16/1, win only.

[Cork All Star]

Max Of Stars won by almost as far as Gaelic Warrior did at Tramore last December.

She could only beat what was there but that looked like a desperately poor race.

[IanDavies]

Yet another astute observation from Alan.

I’d agree even by the standards of summer UK juvenile hurdles, that was a poor contest.

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[TakeYourTime]

Another moderate looking contest at Stratford tomorrow. Alan King saddles the current fav, Two Past Eight, who won on hurdling debut at Aintree last month. 7lbs penalty to contend with here and is probably up against a better horse in Milton Harris’ runner, Swiss Money, who was picked up from France after comfortably winning a flat claimer. It may or may not be telling that Milton Harris sponsors the race… at 7/2 I’ve taken a chance on him.

Of those at a price, Favorite Boy is related to a few nice horses with form over jumps. He’d be my pick for the forecast.

[apracing]

Here is Swiss Money winning that claimer – he’s in green and white:

https://www.equidia.fr/courses/2023-06-15/R1/C7

Bought for 35,000 euros after that. Milton Harris has a pretty good record with ex flat horses going into juvenile hurdles and watching that film, this one should surely be favourite today. Only negative I can see is that Harris has only had the horse for four weeks, but even that suggests he must have schooled OK if he’s willing to run him this soon.

His French flat handicap mark converts to 85 UK and the horse he beat last time is rated 86, so the form looks solid.

[IanDavies]

I thought Saisissante, with the generous 7lb gender allowance, was quite interesting at double-digit odds, but Swiss Money ticks various form, who the trainer is, who the sponsor is, Alan Potts thinks it should be the favourite boxes!

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[BigG]

I had a look through these and I thought that Sunrise Boy was the only one
from the back that was making up ground late on behind Two Past Eight on
his 1st run over hurdles. He should come on from that and if I hadn’t slept
on this morning I would have taken the 10s, I’ve had to settle for 7/1.

I agree with take Your Time, Favourite Boy has some interesting breeding
and could be worth an E/W at 33/1, or 28/1 4 places Skybet.

[Author]

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