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<br>Jackane,
Entry for the Derby costs £315 paid on Dec 1st 2004 for the 2006 Derby. Then there are various declaration stages at which more money has to be paid.
£1000 on March 7th, £3000 on May 19th and £2500 at the 5 day stage on May 29th.
The Oaks is different as the initial entry isn’t until March 1st 2006 and costs £800, with subsequent payments of £1400 and £1200 on May 19th and at 5 day stage.
So connections of Speciosa could have entered in March and dropped out after the Guineas if she’d disappointed for a cost of £800.
Of course the returns put the entry fee into context – the Derby winner this year collects £709,750.
AP
<br>There is one exception to the ’12F horses not in vogue’ – if the horse is a son of Sadlers Wells it doesn’t matter what his best trip is, he’s going to be popular as a stallion and his yearlings will sell well.
Best current examples – Galileo and Montjeu.
Astonishing when you look back at all the money Sangster and Magnier spent at Keeneland trying to buy stallions and Sadlers Wells was bred from a mare that Sangster owned and raced – Fairy Bridge.
AP
Quote: from SirHarryLewis
Whats more of a puzzle is why the race produced so many good horses in the eighties and so many duds in recent years.
SHL,
I’d guess it’s because most breeders are now aiming to produce 10F horses, not Derby winners. Around the world, the biggest prizes – Dubai, Hong Kong, Singapore, Breeders Cup – are at 10F.
And the stallions with the biggest valuations are those that produce the 10F horses.
How many recent Derby winners have been dropped to 10F for their subsequent races (e.g. Motivator) rather than aimed at the St Leger?
If you read the book about Sangster and Magnier and their campaign in the 80’s, the aim was to buy the Derby winner as a yearling as that provided the biggest return in the stallion market. But that no longer applies and Derby winners aren’t that commercial unless they can win at shorter or go on to take the Arc and/or Breeders Cup Turf.
AP
<br>Hannon’s comment before Newbury that their one doubt was whether he’d stay 5F now looks pretty accurate.
He’s all speed, but no response when challenged on todays evidence.
Who was it who wrote ‘it’s not how fast they go, but how they go fast that matters’.
AP<br>
<br>Worth remembering that the date for the Derby was set early for very good reasons, although those reasons no longer apply.
Throughout the 19th century and at least until 1914, Epsom didn’t stage any meetings after the Derby and Ascot didn’t stage any after the Royal meeting. That was because the tracks had no watering system and the trainers had no artifical surfaces on the gallops at home.
The classics were set in April, June and September to avoid the hard ground that was normal in mid summer.
Personally I’d favour moving the race back, particularly to allow for the inclusion of a Group 1 over 10F between the Guineas and the Derby, but I concede it’s never going to happen. It does remain ridiculous though that we have up to three options for 3-y-olds over 1M (Nmkt, Curragh, Ascot), but none over 10F. Changing the St James Palace and the Coronation Stakes to 10F would be an improvement in my view, but again, I know it’s never going to happen.
AP
<br>They could stage six Group 1 races at one hour intervals and some peopke would still whinge.
If they’d opted to start at 6:50 this evening and stuck to 30 min intervals, what would there be to complain about. Of course the racing is put on to fit in with shop opening times – that’s because racing and betting are financially tied together, just the same as they are in every other country in the world bar Dubai.
As for the football analogy, is the London derby being staged at 12:45 tomorrow to suit the fans and players – or is it just possible that it’s a financial arrangement to suit Sky TV.
He who pays the piper dictates what time he tunes up – racing is hardly alone in that.
AP<br>
<br>Three flat meetings yesterday with plenty of runners and there wasn’t a single one set to carry less than 8st 4lbs.
Apart from mixed age handicaps in which 3-y-olds get a big weight allowance from older horses, there are very few occasions when any race produces a lower weight in the current program – and that could be resolved in most cases by raising the top weight for the older horses.
The 24lb range from 8-4 to 10-0 should be sufficient.
AP
<br>Looks like hard work on the ground so far today, so I’ve backed Direct Access who’s a big strong sort that should handle the conditions and only has 10-6 to carry.
AP
<br>Dave’s approach simply confirms that there are as many different ways of making the game pay as there are profitable punters.
His principle objective is to avoid long confidence damaging losing runs, hence his choice to back more than one per race and to bet a high percentage of races, so that totally blank days are very rare.
AP
<br>Er, Chepstow doesn’t have an uphill finish, more like the opposite, although there is a rise that ends about three furlongs out.
AP
<br>Carvills,
Then again, that Henry Rix was a wizard on the left wing when he wasn’t tipping winners!
I’d support what Steve says about using the same skills in other fields and it’s probably significant that many of the full time punters I’ve met in the last fifteen years have had a background in IT, accountancy etc, or have run their own business.
AP<br>
<br>Thank you Clive – personally I feel they are now out of date as the combination of the rise of the Internet, exchanges and the big differences in the racing program have certainly altered my approach.
<br>To FSL, I’d say that the best rules are the ones you’re comfortable with and that means developing your own ideas. It means working out what type of bet suits you best, what areas you want to specialise in and how you choose to stake your bets.
Treat it like a business – have a plan, objectives, a budget and take the long term view. What happens on any one day, week or month shouldn’t alter your methods, so long as the accounts look OK at the annual review.
Lastly, be sure it’s what you really want to do – glamorous it ain’t!
AP<br>
<br>I must be missing something, but $16M for a dirt bred horse that has shown he can run fast on that surface and they are sending him to Biancone.
Doesn’t he train in California and aren’t they replacing their dirt tracks with Polytrack?
And with the same thing happening in Kentucky, are sires with a dirt track background going to command big fees in the years ahead?
AP<br>
<br>A furlong in 9.8 seconds!
Does anybody actually believe any thoroughred could do that, let alone an immature 2-y-old?
AP
<br>Gus,
Market forces at work – Cheltenham may have sold all the tickets for the first three days last year, but the usual proportion of those sales were to touts, who got stuck with them when nobody turned up to buy them.
That’s the explanation for the feeling expressed by many that did go for the comfort of the first three days compared with past years – 55,000 tickets sold, but nothing like that many people actually inside the racecourse.
This year the touts haven’t been buying. Good to see basic economic theory of supply and demand working in practice. In this case Cheltenham supplied six races instead of seven but still increased the price – resulting in reduced demand from the public.
AP
<br>Aston,
No, I opted out this year as I felt I’d run out of useful things to say about trends or the Festival.
I’ll still be a buyer though – it isn’t just the positive trends that can be helpful, but the negatives as well.
Btw, in my piece in the book last year I expressed a negative view of the four day festival. Well in the event I found I enjoyed it just as much, although nothing is ever going to convert me into a fan of watching horses do three laps of a garden centre and calling it a cross country race.
AP
