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Weatherbys Cheltenham Betting Guide

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  • #2417
    newcastleviana
    Member
    • Total Posts 21

    Hi Everyone. Through the post yesterday morning I received a leaflet for ‘The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide by Paul Jones’. It claims to give an in-depth analysis of every race among other things but also it mentions all its good price winners from last year (Liberthine 25/1, Dabiroun 20/1 etc)

    Was wondering if this was all a load of cr*p and these were one of his 10 selections for every race or if he actually singled out those horses to win and also is it worth £13.95?

    Any help much appreciated

    Cheers<br>Dan

    #68849
    Zebra
    Participant
    • Total Posts 74

    I think it’s very good. Normally, there is a short list of 2 or 3 runners for each race but the analysis is excellent and I think it’s fair value

    #68850
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    I’ve used the betting guides for the last 2 years and found them very interesting, if you like trends/statistics etc. Basically Paul Jones analyses every race to identify trends in past winners in such things as

    Age<br>Market position (fav, top 4 in betting etc)<br>Price<br>Warm-up races used<br>Trainers<br>Official Rating<br>Weight carried<br>How the Irish fare in the race

    Obviously he can’t give you clear final selections in the guide as final declarations are not known but he does create a workable shortlist for you. As regards his final selections, he provides an overnight e-mail service (for an extra fee of course) where he gives you his picks for the next days racing. I used this for Aintree last year and he had a couple of good-priced winners but overall he did a bit better than break even.

    It’s good in the sense that it highlights horses who may have to overcome a couple of strong trends to win the race and often these horses are strongly fancied and don’t win.

    You’re not going to get the winner of every race obviously but they are OK if you like trends/stats as I said above.

    This is anexample of what Paul Jones does. The actual betting guide is a bit more indepth than this though.<br>http://www.attheraces.com/jumps/news.asp?opt=Hot+Handicaps

    #68851
    aston
    Member
    • Total Posts 168

    An excellent read if nothing else.<br>AP had an interesting piece in it last year. Have you done so again?

    #68852
    apracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3087

    <br>Aston,

    No, I opted out this year as I felt I’d run out of useful things to say about trends or the Festival.

    I’ll still be a buyer though – it isn’t just the positive trends that can be helpful, but the negatives as well.

    Btw, in my piece in the book last year I expressed a negative view of the four day festival. Well in the event I found I enjoyed it just as much, although nothing is ever going to convert me into a fan of watching horses do three laps of a garden centre and calling it a cross country race.

    AP

    #68853
    Gigginstown ManGigginstown Man
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    All them guides are grand but at the end of the day do any of ye actually go with what they say!!Would ye not rather pick the horses your self.I  definitely would!!

    #68854
    roryrory
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2685

    I’m guessing that you haven’t read the publication in question GM. Am I right?

    #68855
    stevedvg
    Member
    • Total Posts 1137

    Hi Dan

    I got the flyer from Weatherby’s today as well.

    I bought it the last 2 or 3 years (plus the Aintree guide last year).

    I think it’s excellent and gives a good overview of the races and I’ll be buying it again this year.

    I’ve not tried the email or text updates but have heard positive things about them.  

    However, I prefer to make my own picks with the guide just being part of my overall decision making process.

    Steve

    #68856
    Gigginstown ManGigginstown Man
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    I havent . i’m not into them types of books. I like either backing a horse i fancy myself or a horse i get word for.

    #68857
    stevedvg
    Member
    • Total Posts 1137

    Woah! Wait a minute.

    One minute you’re saying

    "Would ye not rather pick the horses your self.I  definitely would!!",

    the next you’re saying

    "I like either backing a horse i fancy myself or a horse i get word for"

    So, you’re really not that bothered about picking the horses yourself, are you?

    Steve

    #68858
    Gigginstown ManGigginstown Man
    Member
    • Total Posts 84

    If i get info from a reliable source i will have a punt on it because i know it will win,so there is no point backing again it.But reading from a book from a lad who doesnt know much more than the next…that seems pointles. Just what i think

    #68859
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    Gigginstown, you don’t know whether or not Paul Jones knows more or less than anyone. The books are just his angle and they are pretty good in fairness to him. Anyone who makes their living out of hores racing is going to know something about the game. Surely you can appreciate that.

    #68860
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4554

    Quote: from apracing on 11:57 am on Feb. 10, 2006[br]<br>…….although nothing is ever going to convert me into a fan of watching horses do three laps of a garden centre and calling it a cross country race.

    AP<br>

    AP

    Of course they could always get Peter Alliss in to do the commentary…………

    Rob

    #68861
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    These guides were a goldmine a few years ago but like any system, they have got less useful as they become more popular- I still wouldn’t approach the Festival without it though. Our edge on the Giggy Mans of the world may be less, but it’s still enough……

    #68862
    newcastleviana
    Member
    • Total Posts 21

    Cheers for that guys. I think i have heard enough good comments about this book to order one for myself.

    I do agree that picking winners from your own judgement is so much more satisfying, but seeing as using my own judgement  gives me a strike rate of 2% i think i might use my own judgement to buy this book

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