February 10, 2006 at 11:12 #2417newcastlevianaMember
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Hi Everyone. Through the post yesterday morning I received a leaflet for ‘The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide by Paul Jones’. It claims to give an in-depth analysis of every race among other things but also it mentions all its good price winners from last year (Liberthine 25/1, Dabiroun 20/1 etc)
Was wondering if this was all a load of cr*p and these were one of his 10 selections for every race or if he actually singled out those horses to win and also is it worth Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£13.95?
Any help much appreciated
Cheers<br>DanFebruary 10, 2006 at 11:20 #68849ZebraParticipant
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I think it’s very good. Normally, there is a short list of 2 or 3 runners for each race but the analysis is excellent and I think it’s fair valueFebruary 10, 2006 at 11:26 #68850davidbradyMember
- Total Posts 3901
I’ve used the betting guides for the last 2 years and found them very interesting, if you like trends/statistics etc. Basically Paul Jones analyses every race to identify trends in past winners in such things as
Age<br>Market position (fav, top 4 in betting etc)<br>Price<br>Warm-up races used<br>Trainers<br>Official Rating<br>Weight carried<br>How the Irish fare in the race
Obviously he can’t give you clear final selections in the guide as final declarations are not known but he does create a workable shortlist for you. As regards his final selections, he provides an overnight e-mail service (for an extra fee of course) where he gives you his picks for the next days racing. I used this for Aintree last year and he had a couple of good-priced winners but overall he did a bit better than break even.
It’s good in the sense that it highlights horses who may have to overcome a couple of strong trends to win the race and often these horses are strongly fancied and don’t win.
You’re not going to get the winner of every race obviously but they are OK if you like trends/stats as I said above.
This is anexample of what Paul Jones does. The actual betting guide is a bit more indepth than this though.<br>http://www.attheraces.com/jumps/news.asp?opt=Hot+HandicapsFebruary 10, 2006 at 11:41 #68851astonMember
- Total Posts 168
An excellent read if nothing else.<br>AP had an interesting piece in it last year. Have you done so again?February 10, 2006 at 11:57 #68852apracingParticipant
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No, I opted out this year as I felt I’d run out of useful things to say about trends or the Festival.
I’ll still be a buyer though – it isn’t just the positive trends that can be helpful, but the negatives as well.
Btw, in my piece in the book last year I expressed a negative view of the four day festival. Well in the event I found I enjoyed it just as much, although nothing is ever going to convert me into a fan of watching horses do three laps of a garden centre and calling it a cross country race.
APFebruary 10, 2006 at 12:06 #68853
All them guides are grand but at the end of the day do any of ye actually go with what they say!!Would ye not rather pick the horses your self.I definitely would!!February 10, 2006 at 12:17 #68854roryParticipant
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I’m guessing that you haven’t read the publication in question GM. Am I right?February 10, 2006 at 12:48 #68855stevedvgMember
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I got the flyer from Weatherby’s today as well.
I bought it the last 2 or 3 years (plus the Aintree guide last year).
I think it’s excellent and gives a good overview of the races and I’ll be buying it again this year.
I’ve not tried the email or text updates but have heard positive things about them.
However, I prefer to make my own picks with the guide just being part of my overall decision making process.
SteveFebruary 10, 2006 at 12:57 #68856
I havent . i’m not into them types of books. I like either backing a horse i fancy myself or a horse i get word for.February 10, 2006 at 14:07 #68857stevedvgMember
- Total Posts 1137
Woah! Wait a minute.
One minute you’re saying
"Would ye not rather pick the horses your self.I definitely would!!",
the next you’re saying
"I like either backing a horse i fancy myself or a horse i get word for"
So, you’re really not that bothered about picking the horses yourself, are you?
SteveFebruary 10, 2006 at 15:57 #68858
If i get info from a reliable source i will have a punt on it because i know it will win,so there is no point backing again it.But reading from a book from a lad who doesnt know much more than the next…that seems pointles. Just what i thinkFebruary 10, 2006 at 16:36 #68859davidbradyMember
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Gigginstown, you don’t know whether or not Paul Jones knows more or less than anyone. The books are just his angle and they are pretty good in fairness to him. Anyone who makes their living out of hores racing is going to know something about the game. Surely you can appreciate that.February 10, 2006 at 17:27 #68860robnorthParticipant
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Quote: from apracing on 11:57 am on Feb. 10, 2006[br]<br>…….although nothing is ever going to convert me into a fan of watching horses do three laps of a garden centre and calling it a cross country race.
Of course they could always get Peter Alliss in to do the commentary…………
RobFebruary 10, 2006 at 17:55 #68861carvillshillParticipant
- Total Posts 2778
These guides were a goldmine a few years ago but like any system, they have got less useful as they become more popular- I still wouldn’t approach the Festival without it though. Our edge on the Giggy Mans of the world may be less, but it’s still enough……February 10, 2006 at 22:35 #68862newcastlevianaMember
- Total Posts 21
Cheers for that guys. I think i have heard enough good comments about this book to order one for myself.
I do agree that picking winners from your own judgement is so much more satisfying, but seeing as using my own judgement gives me a strike rate of 2% i think i might use my own judgement to buy this book
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