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Trends knock out ……………..

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  • #2423
    Slooch Arm
    Member
    • Total Posts 40

    Now the races have been run lets see what this trend shows.

    Just done a bit of research – horses placing prior to winning at Cheltenham 1996 onwards

    Horse finished 1st or 2nd LTO

    Supreme Nov Hdl           8/9 Noland 1st lto<br>Arkle                              7/9 VPU 1st lto<br>Champ Hdl                     9/9 Brave Inca 1st lto<br>RSA Hdl                          9/9 Nicanor 1st lto<br>Champ Ch                      7/9 Newmill 1st lto<br>RSA Chase                     8/9 Star De Mohaison 1st lto<br>Bumper                          8/9 Hairy Molly 1st lto<br>Gold Cup                        6/9 War of Attrition 2nd lto<br>Triumph                          9/9 Detroit City 1st lto<br>Stayers                           7/9 MWDS 1st lto

    This trend shows that Hardy Eustace, Our Ben, Accordion Etoile and Moscow Flyer have got it to do.

    Hardy is now almost impossible to back.

    Our Ben’s price is risible. There’s no value in his price even if you multiply by 3.

    Accordion Etoile should be nowhere near fav.

    Moscow Flyer……………..? Should be retired before he makes a fool of himself.

    There are no doubt others but this is just a quartet of Fool’s gold.

    Now before you all rage about trends being useless just remember to look at this thread at the end of Cheltenham week.

    I suppose one might buck the trend but 2 certainly won’t so mind how you go and trade out if you can!!

    Of the 4 mentioned horses Hardy did best followed by the old goat MF, the other 2 fell – whaddya think now Jackane? Still stubborn?

    (Edited by Slooch Arm at 12:15 pm on Mar. 20, 2006)

    #68925
    jackane24
    Member
    • Total Posts 444

    You should stop before you make a fool of yourself :biggrin:

    Who cares about trends??? They mean nothing – they tell the story which teletext results page tells. They don’t say anything about horses being unlucky in running. They don’t say anything about the ground being unsuitable. They don’t say anything about horses staying on. They don’t say anything about horses stepping up in class.<br>Accordion Etoile came 3rd in a 2m Grade 1 chase Lto on unsuitable ground. The Arkle is a NOVICE Grade 1 which will be run on suitable ground. But because AE ddn’t come 1st or 2nd Lto we should just ignore him.

    Moscow Flyer’s stable was out of form on both occasions he ran this season. He is going to be fresh come Cheltenham, and for my money, is one of the greatest 5 horses ever. He has provided me and MANY others will amazing Cheltenham moments, and has not been demolished in either of his 2 starts this year. But we should ignore him because he didn’t come 1st or 2nd LTO.

    Hardy Eustace – a 2-time Champion Hurdle winner, was off injured from March last year until New Year’s Eve last year. Won the race easily, and had a low blood count (??? viral infection???) when he ran in the AIG, but had overtaken Brave Inca and was still full of running. He will get ground which suits at Cheltenham, but we should ignore him because he didn’t come 1st or 2nd Lto.

    Our Ben ran over 2m 5f last time out, and was staying on really well. He will definitely get 3m and will be a much better horse for it. But we should ignore him because he didn’t come 1st or 2nd Lto. Was about 2 lengths from 2nd and staying on, but doesn’t matter. Ignore him.

    Kicking King shouldn’t have won the King George last year because he didn’t win last time out. Didn’t even come 2nd. Was miles back in 3rd and going backwards. 10 out of 10 of the last runnings had been won by horses who had won last time out. Didn’t stop Kicking King. <br>I’ve just grabbed the closest RP to me – happens to be from Saturday. The Reynoldstown Novices Chase says that the winner will come from the first 2 in the betting (10/10) and the winner will have the best RP rating from last time out (10/10). But the winner was 17/2, the outsider of the 5, and had only the 3rd highest RPR.

    Come On Johnny shouldn’t have won the November H’Cap because he didn’t come in the top 4 last time out. But he absolutely p!ssed the race.

    #68926
    Slooch Arm
    Member
    • Total Posts 40

    Mr Jackass, very briefly, if you ignore trends you are a fool.

    In any generation of horses all the hard luck stories generally even themselves out so that it is pretty much the same from year to year.

    I shan’t argue the toss with you on the form lines coz I agree with most of it.

    Should I be wrong regarding at least 3 out of the 4 above then I will be happy to come back and hold my hands up. Indeed, just to show how serious this is, I’d be happy to have a straight £100 that at least 3 of the above will fail. I’m sure we can sort out the necessary arrangements should you accept the challenge.

    #68933
    jackane24
    Member
    • Total Posts 444

    I was actually going to ask what prices you would give on Moscow, Hardy and Our Ben. Obviously you are not a bookie, but I’d stick a score on each with you if you give good price. Moscow is currently 3/1, Hardy Eustace currently 6/1, and I have no idea about Our Ben. Hang on, RP says Our Ben is 5/1. Post the prices on here – maybe other people would like a little flutter.

    #68936
    jackane24
    Member
    • Total Posts 444

    I was actually going to ask what prices you would give on Moscow, Hardy and Our Ben. Obviously you are not a bookie, but I’d stick a score on each with you if you give good price. Moscow is currently 3/1, Hardy Eustace currently 6/1, and I have no idea about Our Ben. Hang on, RP says Our Ben is 5/1. Post the prices on here – maybe other people would like a little flutter.

    Oh, and by the way – If you agree with the trends, that is fine. I’m not going to slag you off, but I will slag off the method. I don’t use them because they are there to be broken. 2 trends in the race same were broken on Saturday. If I was betting at the moment and following trends, I would have ploughed into the Listener with the short price, and lost my money. Plenty of people did.

    And you talk about luck evening itself out. How much luck did the filly Yesterday have??? Did she actually EVER win a race??? I loved that horse soooooooooo much, but my god was she unlucky.

    #68938
    Slooch Arm
    Member
    • Total Posts 40

    Mr Jackass, as you may be aware, I’m not a bookmaker and so do not have enough lays to cover myself here.

    In any event this is about trends – not individual chances. If I wanted to dog the chances of the above horses then I would have started another thread.

    Indeed, I have contributed significantly to the Racing Demon thread in damning the chances of Accordion Etoile.

    Do you want an even 100 on the terms detailed above or do you just want me to give you OTT prices like a damn fool?

    #68939
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    I totally agree with Jackane about the trends but simply do not fancy any of the horses highlighted.

    On another forum a supposed "big pro punter" was telling me that Monkerhostin cannot win the GC because no 2nd in the KGV has done so for blah blah years. So? where was the logic in that?

    Trends like that are about as relevant as no horse in green silks or whatever and jackane, have to agree ithw your points about pure form numbers are neitehr here nor tehre

    But some trends have logic. Losing at aintree after winning at Chelts for one. Thats becuase theres an explanation….<br>

    #68940
    Slooch Arm
    Member
    • Total Posts 40

    The logic is simple. In any generation of horses there will be a proportion that are grade performers, a proportion that are handicappers and a proportion that are selling platers etc.

    The point is that the proportions do not change markedly. Therefore history largely repeats itself. Whether or not you choose to accept that is up to you but it is a fact. There maybe some variance greater than others in a generation’s ability but so what – that’s what makes it a trend, not a certainty.

    Clivex you should credit me with a little deeper thought than comparing this to the colours of a jockeys silks. I shall avoid berating you for it just this once so that we can maintain our normal mode of agreement.

    Mr Jackass, you originally thought this could be a possibility for investment. Now you are aware that I’m not that stupid, how do you feel about an even £100. Seems a decent price, especially if you’ve got them in a Yankee!

    #68941
    cormack15cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8783

    Trends are very powerful indicators of how a race may pan out based on the history of that particular race. The Cheltenham Festival is a strong trend meeting and many of the trends there are ignored at your peril.

    HOWEVER, only certain trends are meaningful and they also need to be approached with a certain degree of statistical rigour.

    For example, if someone said to me, about a particular race, that 2nd favourites had only won once in the last ten years it would be pretty meaningless and not really of any value at all.

    On the other hand certain ‘types’ of horses do tend to win certain races year in year out and it is often possible, by making a fairly straightforward statistical evaluation of certain races, to identify horses which are over/under priced.

    I would point out though that presenting a set of figures such as Slooch does is no more than a starting point and is fairly meaningless in itself.

    For example, simply stating that 7 of the last 9 Champion Chases have been won by a horse with a 1st or 2nd last time out wouldn’t make me any more or less inclined to support such a horse this year or make me any more or less inclined to abandon one who hadn’t. You would need additional information. What percentage of teh overall number of runners in the last 9 years had a 1 or 2 last time? What was the overall  % chance of a horse with a 1 or 2 last time winning? What was the average sp of the horses with a 1 or 2 lto?

    Without the additional info the original assertion is largely meaningless, as are any conclusions derived from it.

    Trends, like most routes to profitability in horse race betting, require lots and lots of graft and any attempt to short cut this by leaping to conclusions based on insufficient data or insufficient or error strewn analysis will lead one to the poor house.<br>

    (Edited by cormack15 at 4:51 pm on Feb. 20, 2006)

    #68942
    cormack15cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8783

    Quote from Slooch – <br>The logic is simple. In any generation of horses there will be a proportion that are grade performers, a proportion that are handicappers and a proportion that are selling platers etc.

    The point is that the proportions do not change markedly. Therefore history largely repeats itself. Whether or not you choose to accept that is up to you but it is a fact. There maybe some variance greater than others in a generation’s ability but so what – that’s what makes it a trend, not a certainty.

    What you say about the number of good/poor performers is correct but I’m not sure how it adds any credence at all to your original arguments relating to a specific set of races at a specific race meeting.<br>

    #68943
    Nixer
    Member
    • Total Posts 105

    Looks like old Slooch is looking for that Irish backlash he never got in the Moscow flyer thread. <br>Your soooooooooooooooooo contraversial. NOT. <br>Do you ever get tired of being an asshole.<br>Rgae against the world man. YEAH

    #68944
    Slooch Arm
    Member
    • Total Posts 40

    Rather unsurprisingly, a rather blinkered response.

    The whole racing timetable has the same races, year in, year out culminating for most in the Cheltenham Festival.

    If you add to that the proportion point alluded to earlier it is absolutely obvious. When a horse shows a certain amount of ability it will only run in a certain type of race and if it can’t come 1st or 2nd in that race then it can’t win at  the festival.

    What if it was unlucky?? This happens more rarely than people think. Good horses generally don’t get in a position where luck matters or they can overcome it – BM in his last Gold Cup.

    Clivex came up with an example of a horse giving 2 others 10lb in a race and being only just beaten – should reverse it at Cheltenham. Having thought further about this I concluded that his scenario simply wouldn’t arise.

    If you can’t see it I’m not going to try to convert. We shall return to this thread on 19th March.

    Incidentally since you all think I’m talking rubbish I will extend the £100 offer to anybody else except Nixer who seems to think this forum is suitable for his rather puerile jibes

    #68945
    Slooch Arm
    Member
    • Total Posts 40

    Certainly EC…………….my apologies if any offence caused Jackane, none was intended.

    #68946
    jackane24
    Member
    • Total Posts 444

    Cheers EC – it was insulting. Why do you think I wasn’t posting? ;)

    Slooch – I said you are probably not a bookie. Look about 10 words before I ask what prices you would give. You want to bet 100 quid that none of Our Ben, Hardy, Moscow and Accord Et win??? What a terrible bet. If I put 20 quid win on each of them, I would win 120 quid, 140 quid, 90 quid and 110 quid. So I would win a minimum tenner should 1 come in, and I expect 2 of those to come in. So you are giving me no value – the same odds that 1 wins and all 4 winning. I might as well do a Lucky 15 for a fiver. So thanks – but no thanks.

    Just another post about these trends. Saturday’s ROP picked out FROM THE TRENDS, What a Native (PU), The Listener (Fell), My Will and Penzance. Quite why anyone would pick Penzance I do not know. He has done nothing all year – has been miles behind in his last 3 starts now, and his form figures of 344 flatter him so much. And My Will?? My god. Admittedly, going into the Festival last year I fancied him, but now. I wouldn’t back him at any odds. He is nothing more than a mediocre hcapper, and for the trends to pick him out as being the prospective winner of the Ascot Chase proves its absolute uselessness.

    There’s only been 1 horse in the last 22 years to win a Hennessy and GC in the same year for one reason – no horse has been good enough to progress from hcapper to Gr1 in 4 and a half months. Trabolgan possibly would have been good enough. Damn shame he’s not in it.

    #68947
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    Nixer is a serious prat…as ever

    :angry:

    Cormack summed it up well i thought

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