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<br>Does using my experience to write about racing disqualify me from the job title then?
Reminds me of a comment on another chat room that suggested I couldn’t be called a real pro punter as I’d had a redundancy payment to get me started.
Like all these things, it depends on your definition. If you’re going to take purist line and limit the job title to those that have no other source of income, then I only know two! Because of course, you’d have to discount those with a working wife that helps out with the mortgage.
As for the idea that anonymity helps in the betting ring, I’d say that opposite is more true. Being known means that the bookies know that I’m not putting on for somebody else, that I’m not laundering the money, and that I’ll be there again in future. Being known also means I can call bets without having to wait around for a ticket to be printed.
My own guess (and it can never be more than that) as to the numbers of full time punters across the country. Well I know plenty that have set themselves up in the last one to two years using the Net and it wouldn’t surprise me to find that there were between 300 and 500 people now making the bulk of their living from betting.
Not as many as the residents of Fantasy Island (aka BF forum) would like us to believe, but far more than five years ago, when on course was really the only option.
Alan
<br>I’d absolutely echo what Rory has posted. I laid Creskeld this morning at 7/4 and was amazed that punters were willing to back him at the show prices.
He’s a moderate handicapper with a 2/22 career record before today’s race. He needs a strong pace, which he got last week and wasn’t sure to get today and Rory’s point about the draw is well made. Note also that today’s winner Shore Vision was lumbered with stall 1 last time.
Any punter that backs a 5/4 fav in a 16 runner 0-70 handicap is beyond saving.
And any punter that shouts fix whenever he backs a loser is similarly lost.
I also laid two winners this afternoon at Warwick – Cresswell Quay and Wild Dream. My conclusion is that I made two mistakes and need to try harder tomorrow.
I will raise again the eternal question – one to which I have never in thirty years heard a decent answer – if you’re convinced it’s all bent , why do you bet on it?
Alan
<br>Hi Bowser,
You didn’t seem to be provoking much response (do I detect an anti-AW snobbery here?), so here’s my suggestions.
I’d avoid most of the racing at Southwell and Wolverhampton. The variable nature of the surface, the ever changing pace and draw biases make the formbook useless. Unless you have the chance to watch these meetings live and can then bet the later races, I’d steer clear. Take a look at the record of Southwell favourites printed in today’s Post for evidence of the problems posed by Fibresand tracks.
The one exception I’d make would be maiden races, which are usually uncompetitive and seem to me to be more predictable.
I’d concentrate your efforts on Lingfield – two meetings per week after Xmas and generally of better quality than the other courses. The surface is consistent and there didn’t seem to be any major variation from meeting to meeting in how they ran, although we’ve yet to see the impact of a real cold spell.
One pointer from last winter – I reckon horses carry their speed further on Polytrack, so they can win over a longer trip than on turf. The previous winner stepping up in distance can provide good bets.
Alan<br>
<br>The reason we don’t weigh horses in this country is purely practical. In order for the information to be supplied in time for punters to have it in the morning paper, the weighing would have to take place at the stables the day before the race. That would mean every trainer having a set of scales. Then you’d need an official to go round checking that all the scales were calibrated correctly.
And if a trainer is bent, then he simply gives out the wrong weight and nobody is going to know any different.
Yes, you could have scales at every racecourse, but then only a few punters would have access to the info, just as happens now with the weights of greyhounds.
As to the ‘run over best distance’ argument, what makes you think that owners and trainers know what that is. When you buy a new horse, you might spend eight or ten races trying to find out the answer and still not be sure. And if I buy a stoutly bred 2-y-old that will eventually win over two miles, are you saying I can’t run it as a 2-y-old beacuse there aren’t any races over 2m.
On that basis, the Derby would be contested almost entirely by unraced horses! And so would the Grand National, as there are no other races over that distance.
I wish those who are convinced that racing is bent would answer just one question –
If it’s bent , why do you bet on it?
If I invited you to a poker game and told you in advance that all the other players were card sharps and the cards were marked, would you still join in?
Alan<br>
Hi Racing Daily,
It’s certainly possible and I’ve managed it for the last eleven years. Admittedly I’ve added to my betting income by other means, mainly writing and tipping, but I could have lived on the betting profit alone if necessary.
BUT, by the time I depended on that income, I had a good capital base built up over the previous ten years, I’d paid off my mortgage and I had no family to support. Those things make it much easier to start, as the pressure for immediate success is removed. I reckon it took me two years to adapt to being a full time punter as opposed to doing it as a hobby.
I was also used to playing to large stakes before I went full time and changing from bets of £20 or £50 to stakes in the hundreds can be difficult to do without it inhibiting your betting.
I know that I have been, and still am, very fortunate to be able to make a living from something I love doing. I also know that I would have been very unhappy if I’d died without at least trying my hand as a ‘pro’.
If you can show a consistent pattern of profitable betting over a five year period, then you have the ability. Whether you have the right sort of mental approach, only you can decide.
Good luck, Alan
<br>Nick raises a question about the potential for an owner/trainer to lay a horse in a weak market, giving Wolverhampton as an example.
Clearly, the oportunity exists, as it always has, since I could ask a bookie at Wolves to lay a horse for me. Betfair increases the range of options, but anybody set on making a serious amount would be daft to take that route. If one or two account holders on Betfair set out to lay a short priced horse by offering prices well ahead of those in the on course market, that would show up very easily in Betfair’s records. Especially if they were not regularly laying horses to lose the same amount.
The economics indicate that if you own a favourite, even for an AW race, you are better off letting it run on it’s merits than trying to stop it and profit that way. Of course, racing has it’s share of people that would prefer to earn a bent pound than a legal tenner!
As far as the punter is concerned, there are two things you can do to help avoid being caught out – stick to better class races for your betting and beware of prices that look too good to be true. To offer an example this afternoon, consider the 6F fillies race at Salisbury (2:10). Does anybody think that Hamdam Al Maktoum is going to be on Betfair laying Khulood having told the trainer to take a pull? So bet on that, rather than any of the low grade 16 runner lotteries at Southwell (in one of which I have a runner today!).
