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A.W. SEASON

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  • #4251
    bowser
    Member
    • Total Posts 7

    Its that time of year again when bowser starts calculating profit/LOSS for the passing turf season(dont play on jumps).Can anyone pass on a few gems for profitable punting on A.W. racing?bowser.  

    #101692
    apracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3105

    <br>Hi Bowser,

    You didn’t seem to be provoking much response (do I detect an anti-AW snobbery here?), so here’s my suggestions.

    I’d avoid most of the racing at Southwell and Wolverhampton. The variable nature of the surface, the ever changing pace and draw biases make the formbook useless. Unless you have the chance to watch these meetings live and can then bet the later races, I’d steer clear. Take a look at the record of Southwell favourites printed in today’s Post for evidence of the problems posed by Fibresand tracks.

    The one exception I’d make would be maiden races, which are usually uncompetitive and seem to me to be more predictable.

    I’d concentrate your efforts on Lingfield – two meetings per week after Xmas and generally of better quality than the other courses. The surface is consistent and there didn’t seem to be any major variation from meeting to meeting in how they ran, although we’ve yet to see the impact of a real cold spell.

    One pointer from last winter – I reckon horses carry their speed further on Polytrack, so they can win over a longer trip than on turf. The previous winner stepping up in distance can provide good bets.

    Alan<br>

    #101693
    bowser
    Member
    • Total Posts 7

    I think you hit the nail on the head there Alan,most people turn their nose up to A.W. racing.However plenty of 8,16 runner h;caps appeal more to me than a 4 runner novice chase at fontwell.Thank you for sharing your wisdom with us i will certainly bear it in mind during this cold snap.:)      

    #101696
    tooting
    Member
    • Total Posts 379

    bowser,

    Have you tried compiling your own speed ratings – they’re ideally suited to the winter all weather.

    #101698
    bowser
    Member
    • Total Posts 7

    tooting, excuse my ignorance but i wouldnt have a clue where to start.Is it time consuming?

    #101699
    Nick Hatton
    Member
    • Total Posts 399

    As tooting suggested speed ratings would definitely help you, especially in the shorter distance races. A general understanding of the 3 tracks is important as they are pretty different to each other. At Southwell and Wolverhampton there is a lot of ‘kickback’ (sand spraying up at the horses running behind) and for this reason frontrunners have an unusually good chance, particularly in sprint races. At Southwell you should ignore draws 15&16 at most distances and at Wolves you should be very aware that the ‘track bias’ can change dramatically. Due mainly to poor track maintenance it is periodically a big disadvantage to run near the inside rail. You should always look out for this bias.<br>As a general rule of thumb turf form should be ignored at Southwell and Wolves (the two fibresand tracks). This used to be the case at Lingfield too, but since the new polytrack surface was installed there is almost no ‘kickback’ and turf form often works out well. Hold-up horses have a far greater chance at Lingfield than at the other 2 tracks for this reason, although in 5f-6f races frontrunners are still the ones to be with.

    It is also important to develop a good understanding of the trainers who are successful on the a/w. Quite often good turf trainers are poor a/w trainers and vice-versa … this can help you find value selections. And a final thought …… don’t back horses aged 6 or over if they haven’t run on the a/w before, the logic being that if they were going to be any good on the surface they should have already raced on it. Of course they occasionally win, but backing them is a very quick route to the poorhouse !!

    Hope this rambling has been some help and I wish you all the best.

    Nick  :biggrin:

    #101702
    tooting
    Member
    • Total Posts 379

    bowser,

    Mine take me half an hour a week, but then my way of doing speed ratings would be far too simplistic and idiosyncratic for those who take them seriously.

    I’m sure there was a thread on how to compile speed ratings not too long back – try the archive section. Otherwise Nick Mordin’s books explain the subject well.

    At the very least you could try tracking the Racing Post speed ratings in the Weekender. Most punters just look at the highest ratings printed on the racecard – if you kept records of all ratings, I’d imagine you could gain an edge.  

    #101703
    bowser
    Member
    • Total Posts 7

    Thanks for all your help folks,much appreciated

    bowser.

    #101705
    guskennedy
    Member
    • Total Posts 759

    Bowser, the thread you’re looking for is called Speedratings and was started by Chantili on February 17th this year. It’s in the archive section.

    My problem with compiling speed figures for racing at Wolverhampton and Southwell is a simple one. Neither course has electric timing and you’re basically relying – in the twenty-first century for God’s sake! – on the reactions of a bloke holding a stopwatch. If you’ve ever tried to time a race from a video using such a device you’ll know how difficult and potentially inaccurate it can be.

    However, if you look up the thread in question you’ll see just how profitable accurate speed figures can be. I suggested that Kyllachy, Indian Country, Green Line, Greenslades and Faiza were worth following based on their early-season times. All bar Indian Country won and even in his case I think I can claim a moral victory in identifying him as well-handicapped on a mark of 85 considering he was later beaten under four lengths in Group One company at Royal Ascot.

    #101706
    bowser
    Member
    • Total Posts 7

    Hi Gus,i had a quick butchers at the speed ratings thread in the archive.Will take more time on it over the weekend and im sure i will have a few questions for you when im finished.

    Also Gus i was shocked to hear that race times are taken manually,is it the same for lingfield?  

    #101708
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    Bowser,<br>For what its worth I was told ages ago by bookie who works at Wolverhampton that the track there is rolled after every race and the rollers overlap and as a result the middle strip off the last bend is the place that provides the most winners. I have mentioned this in previous postings here and a few months ago a B.Hills odds on fav went off the middle on to the rails and got beat the same horse 2 meetings later in the same type of race come round the bend off the pace stayed exactly on the middle strip and won@5/1 I think it was. Not exactly rocket science. Only works at Wolverhampton though.

    #101709
    guskennedy
    Member
    • Total Posts 759

    Bowser, I’m relieved to say that Lingfield has electric timing.

    As I’ve pointed out in other threads over the past few months a majority of British tracks have hand-timing only and there are less with electric timing than when I started following racing in the mid-seventies. Brighton and Newcastle have fallen by the wayside in recent years. The BHB/Jockey Club/racecourses should be ashamed and embarrassed by this state of affairs but they’re not.

    #101713
    guskennedy
    Member
    • Total Posts 759

    Bowser…I just thought I’d revisit this thread and ask if you’re having any joy on the all-weather.

    #101715
    bowser
    Member
    • Total Posts 7

    Hi Gus,<br>have been having a great time on the sand.Bresbee (12/1 e.p),leitrim lakes(6/1),boston lodge(11/4),arogant prince(2/1) and beauchamp pilot yesterday have helped me to a healthy profit so far.I have had a few near misses as well but im used to that during the standard flat season and im just hoping this aint beginners luck.

    As yet i havent started any speed figures and am betting to a fraction of my normal stakes but the past few weeks have been enjoyable apart from the last few strides of the listed race at lingfield yesterday.still trying to get the stains off my boxers:o

    #101717
    The Guvnor
    Member
    • Total Posts 7

    Hi Bowser

    I to like the AW and I am very confident at picking winners most days.

    Example over the last week and a half ive had a total of 21 bets with 8 winners 6 Placed horses(2nd+3rd) and 8 unplaced horses.

    but when you break them down into track a pattern emerges which iam going to follow asnd that is at Wolverhampton ive had:

    8 Bets – 5 Winners – 1 Placed horse(2nd) and 2 unplaced

    Lingfield:

    7 Bets – 3 Winners – 3 placed(2nd=3rd) and 1 unplaced

    Southwell:

    6 bets – 0 winners – 2placed (2nd+3rd) and 4 unplaced

    As you can see Wolverhampton and Linfield are very easy to pick winners but im strugling at Southwell so im going to steer clear of placing bets and just record the selection for refrence.

    By the way does anybody else find that Southwell consistantly lets them down??

    Regards

    The Guvnor

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