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JohnJ as for Exotic, maybe he did blow up. If so it is fair to conclude that given an ideal prep he would have run to form, putting him a similar distance behind KS as in 2007. Given the form between these two old adversaries is pretty solid, and given ED looked booked for a half decent finishing position until the lack of a prep took its toll, I am stuggling to see how KS can be described as running significanly below form, if at all.
So what you’re saying is that Kauto Star ran to form because Exotic Dancer didn’t, which just about sums up the rest of your contribution to this thread?
Geezuz jumping Ja hosaphine!!!!!………Did anyone watch the after race interview……….Ruby looked as sick as a a parrot.he’s stood there and told us how he saw the race. He said they never went that fast a gallop and I was in trouble going past the stands……….either he’s a total fookin idiot who doesn’t have a clue about horses and should be working on a pig farm or Kauto Stra ran a mile below his best……….unbelieveable any one would doubt the mans word or they are that blind they couldn’t see Kauto wasn’t a shdow of himslef on the day.
As the man rightly said any horse can be beaten on the day……….that does not mean he thinks Denman is a better horse nor does it mean he thinks he will ever do it again.
All I care about is whether or not he should be running tomorrow……that was a tough race on him, he never looked to me 100% right at Ascot but maybe I was expecting too much after Kempton. I just hope PN is right and he is 100%.
From the best chaser to be seen on a race course for years to near calling the horse a Mule after one poxy race is beyond a joke …iF that was the horses true form I’m Johnathen Routh and your all on candid Camera….obviously somepeople have a lot to learn about racing.
MCP,
My comment about Kauto ‘ramming it up people’ tomorrow was not aimed directly at you, it was aimed at all the Kauto knockers that have suddenly appeared.
However to say he’s not a ‘super’ horse on the basis of one defeat against a monster of a horse in Denman is ludicrous.
And you say that he only won as he was entitled to in the King George – surely the fact that he’s entitled to win by 10-15L on the bit shows how good he really is.
Maybe he’ll be supported on course because he’s the headline horse running tomorrow but if 8-11 is around when I get there I’m lumping on!
If Kauto hadn’t run in the Gold Cup he would be 1/10 to win this race Paul so who can blame you.
Monet Garden is unlikely to get the trip with Old Vic sure to be trying Denman tactics.
Exotic Dancer is probably the best he has been in along time but it has never been good enough in the past.
Gungadu is surely miles out his class.
He a stone better than anything in the race if Kempton is to be believed.
However the fact is he was beaten at Cheltenham and we can only hope it was a one off, Old Vic won’t be hanging about and fully fit Exotic Dancer would beat Kauto Star 9 times out of 10 if he ran like he did at Cheltenham again……I think Kauto is one tough cookie and will win but to be honest I still think he shouldn’t be running……….he should have gone on holiday with his big mate Denman……….wish him well and hope he comes through with flying colours.
8/11 about Kauto is a great price IMO- I made him 2/5 assuming the going description is accurate! Any stamina doubts cited in the light of his GC run are laughable, especially seeing as nothing else in tomorrow’s race will be overly keen to turn it into anything like the same test we saw at Cheltenham.
With question marks of some description hanging over most of the rest, I’ll be keeping an eye on Gungadu, who looked to have more in hand than the bare form would suggest in his last two runs and is well entitled to still be improving.This is my opinion (having sidestepped the arguments on here): I don’t think Kauto Star is a value bet at all.
Kauto was an uneasy favourite in this year’s The Betfair Chase (could get evens on the day). He was an uneasy favourite in this year’s King George (could get 5/6 on the day). There seems to have been a fog of vague doubts surrounding him all season (probably because of his seasonal debut at Aintree); none of them had substance, and he won those easily.
Now when there are substantial doubts about him for the first time… he’s 8/11 and many of the people (I know, and on other forums) who have previously been against him are now saying that he’s a value bet. I don’t get it.
IMO: he was been ridden along and jumped poorly before stamina was an issue in The Gold Cup, and finished tired; Walsh’s theory was that he ‘left his race behind at Ascot’ and, if so, this is definitely a step too far; he hasn’t ran at this late stage in previous seasons and is only running now to win the Order Of Merit (a negative motive).
I remember having this argument last year about another horse that ran poorly and finished tired at Cheltenham yet was made a short-priced favourite for a race at Aintree: Detroit City. Overall it pays to take these horses on.
And if Kauto does win then I’ll be pleased that another brilliant 3m horse hasn’t lost his ability too early.
Geezuz jumping Ja hosaphine!!!!!………Did anyone watch the after race interview……….Ruby looked as sick as a a parrot.he’s stood there and told us how he saw the race. He said they never went that fast a gallop and I was in trouble going past the stands……….either he’s a total fookin idiot who doesn’t have a clue about horses and should be working on a pig farm or Kauto Stra ran a mile below his best……….unbelieveable any one would doubt the mans word or they are that blind they couldn’t see Kauto wasn’t a shdow of himslef on the day.
By that reasoning, Paul Nicholls must really be a "total fookin idiot." He said that his (then) stable star had run the best race of his career, and that there were no excuses for his defeat. He was just beaten by an exceptional horse on the day, he said.
Nicholls trains Kauto Star horse – so must have at least some idea of what he is talking about. I think Ruby Walsh was plainly miffed at having chosen the wrong horse and in an effort to soften the blow had to offer some plea of mitigation for Kauto’s defeat. Such is human nature when things don’t go to plan or turn out they way one thought they would.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
A few comments in this thread and also several media people casting doubt on the wiseness of running 20 days after Cheltenham and the possible effect of the hard race on Kauto Star. Is this really valid ? Are horses today not as "tough" (for want of a better word) as they used to be or is that attitudes have changed on the number of times a horse runs during a season ? Desert Orchid at his peak used to be on the go from October to April most years, in fact having finished second to Pearlyman in the QMCC he ran 21 days later when winning over 3M1F at Aintree before winning the Whitbread over 3M5F 16 days later at Sandown. Would running once every five weeks, assuming there are viable engagements, be asking too much of a horse ?
FWIW I think its possible they may be running today to give Kauto Star a confidence booster and maybe ascertain if he is becoming a little inconsistent, although to contradict myself slightly I think his Gold Cup run will be as good as he is at Cheltenham. Kempton Park is a different kettle of fish altogether. With regards to today it will be interesting if Old Vic is on a going day and is allowed an uncontested lead, I think he could well be the one to cause an upset.
Surely, it all depends on how hard a race the horse had had on the previous outing?!
Can’t remember for a fact, but it is likely that Flyingbolt didn’t have a hard race on the Tuesday.
Kauto Star appeared to have a very hard race behind Denman and there must be a chance that the race has left its mark.
Colin
- Total Posts 17716
Reading between the lines in PN’s article today, I’d say the Order of Merit is the reason for today’s run, with possibly another at Sandown to make certain.
If that proves to be the case then the incentive, like a few others should be scrapped in the interest of the horses?Well, if my selection, Exotic Dancer, flops again, I think I’ll use the same excuse as above.
My horse ran even worse than KS the last day, and also felt the effects , I guess.If we are to fall into the trap of judging by one race alone, then ED should probably come last.
It looks like being a favourites’ day, I suppose, with plenty of Cheltenham Festival runners seemingly fancied.
Racing doesn’t always work out like that, though, so it will be interesting to see what happens.
Surely, it all depends on how hard a race the horse had had on the previous outing?!
Can’t remember for a fact, but it is likely that Flyingbolt didn’t have a hard race on the Tuesday.
Kauto Star appeared to have a very hard race behind Denman and there must be a chance that the race has left its mark.
Colin
Colin
I take your point, but how long does it take to get over a race ? I assume Kauto had a reasonably hard race against Monet’s Garden FTO but was running again in less than a month (27 days I think) in the Betfair Chase. Likewise with the example I used with Desert Orchid, who had a hard race in the QMCC on heavy ground against Pearlyman before winning two good races in the following six weeks. Assuming fitness was spot on prior to the Gold Cup (the stable said it was) then is 20 days enough time to rest and get back to somewhere near peak fitness ? Mr Nicholls obviously thinks so, so why should we doubt him ?
I’ll tell you what you should all be doingis getting on to your bookies right now and asking for the big three.
I just got of the pnone and have been laid
Kauto Star 8/11
Inglis Drever 6/4
that’s over 3/1 the double
The ground is right Inglis Drever has one unknown quantity to beat and if Kauto is as well as PN says it could be the best bet of the season.
Not being the shyest of people I asked for 1/2 Master Mindeed as was accomodated in the treble as well at almost 11/2. with Tidal Bay doesn’t run he’ll be 1/3 but if you don’t ask you dont get.
Plus I got laid over 6/4 Master Minded and Kauto Star
How often do you get a chance to back the 3 of the 4 best horses in the country in perfect racing conditions?
Could all get stuffed but I think if you don’t bet them you could feel very silly by the end of the meeting……or I could just have blown the majority of my Cheltenham winnings.
First, I didn’t think you had any Cheltenham winnings after saying that if you did win at Cheltenham it was all going on Kauto Star to win this years and next years Gold Cup. KS got beat, so that should have made you skint.
Second, ID and KS have both been beat already so you’re doubles and trebles are down this week also – so yes, you have just blown all your fictional Cheltenham winnings.
But I’m sure you will have got out of it somehow and managed to cover yourself with an up and down double on Blazing Baileys and Our Vic
Take care mate.
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