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Some interesting thoughts here Joni (as usual!):
Re Cracksman & the Arc: the ‘should he/shouldn’t he’ run question goes to the heart of one of the key observations made on this thread about the Frankel’s – that they need time. For sure, Cracksman is up to running in the Arc, but does that mean it’s going to be to his benefit to have the proverbial ‘gun’ put to his head in what is invariably a rough as well as tough race? He could run in it, and even run well, but at this stage I can’t see him winning it. Every race he’s run in this year he’s off the bridle 3f out, and he’s taken a while to hit top gear. This has been up against a bunch of 3yo colts who are nowhere near Enable, or the 4yos. He’s an honest, resolute horse who will give of his all, so I could see a race like the Arc absolutely ‘bottoming him’. Personally, I think the waiting game is the right one. If this is the way things pan out, “Johnny G” should be given some credit for taking a leaf out of the Stoute/Fabre (and HRAC) route, rather than chasing the first Frankel G1 winner in Europe tag.
On which, Eminent – yes, he just isn’t a G1-winning horse yet (in England or Ireland). But, interestingly for next year, Frankie has ridden him. So they now have a direct comparison between him and Cracksman, the two Frankel colts that Johnny G singled out as good ones from Crop 1.
As for Crop 2, Elarqam is the one I’m watching, as I loved Attraction and have followed all her progeny. There are some lovely pictures of him at York on the MJR website.
http://www.markjohnstonracing.com/elarqam-impresses-racecourse-debut/
Clearly he is a very level headed individual, which is what someone on another forum said about him when they saw him when he was being prepped for Book 1 last year. That makes a welcome change! He is the absolute double of his mum (without the alignment problems of her forelegs). Same plain looks; same colour; same head; same back end. The yard must think a fair bit of him to start him off in a Class 3 (with entries at Ascot and York), rather than say Hamilton (which is where Shamardal began). Be interesting to see what they do next in terms of grade.
Great points Titus and good to read that there is someone out there seeing it the same way as JG and connections of Cracksman. I take everything you say on board and agree with much of it. The Arc IS a rough and tough race and COULD bottom him; he does take a while to hit top gear and seems to find a flat spot in his races and he hasn’t faced anything like the calibre of horse he would be facing in the Arc.
However, I would argue that he is a little better than just an “honest, resolute horse” – in his last two runs especially, he has shown a high cruising speed and gone past the leaders very easily. He has then used that big stride to gallop all the way to the line drawing well clear in both races. He is improving rapidly and, lets be honest, it is not a vintage year. Put it this way, if Enable wasn’t running would they run Cracksman? Would you? I know I would. I might even suggest that part of the reason Frankie is against him running is that he wouldn’t be riding him and he would be the biggest danger to him winning another Arc!
I have always said that the best trainers do the right thing by their horses, are patient and don’t rush them and you site my favourite three trainers, all of which were/are perfect examples of how to handle a maturing thoroughbred. But I can’t honestly say that none of these would have run Cracksman in an open year if he were theirs. Workforce won the Arc as a three-year-old on only his 5th start having been beaten in the King George. Rail Link was having his 5th start also. This would be Cracksman’s 7th start and remember this horse has been narrowly beaten in two Derby’s, won a Voltigeur by 6 lengths and won an Arc trial over the Arc course and distance with the minimum of fuss. Yes he may well be better as a four- year-old but he will not enjoy the weight advantage and you never know what he might be up against next year. It will surely be a better field than THIS years!!
If they had put him away after York as they said they were going to, then maybe the argument would stand. But JG has obviously seen enough progression in the horse to make him change his mind about THAT and I don’t think you can argue that the Prix Niel proved he shouldn’t run. He handled the track well and won easily despite the slow pace and sticky ground being against him.
For what it’s worth I think it is almost certain that he WON’T run unless something happens to Enable – I just hope that they don’t live to regret it.
I am with you regarding Elarqam. He only really seemed to be getting going in the last half furlong and I wouldn’t be surprised to see MJ turn him out again quite quickly in a conditions race or something before aiming him at the Dewhurst. He is one of many exciting Frankel two-year-olds to whet the appetite for next year.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Cracksman is no one paced individual. Has an excellent turn of foot for a 12f horse.
It’s true that he’s often pushed along some way out. In both Voltigeur and Foy came off the bridle before many rivals, but then – once asked seriously for his effort – quickening instantly and sustaining that speed.According to Simon Rowlands/Timeform closing sectionals of the Voltigeur were faster than the two furlong shorter Group 1 International, despite Frankie not going for everything. That’s partly to do with the early pace being set by Cliffs Of Moher and Barney Roy being comparitively faster in the shorter race; but sectionals prove Cracksman has more than enough speed for a 1m4f Group 1. Trouble for him is his stable companion does too. Unless taking note of sectionals it’s easy to be fooled in to thinking a horse that is pushed along fairly early doesn’t have much speed and he/she’s only staying on. That’s not always the case.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3prJJbl74JI
Value Is EverythingIf I owned him Joni (“fat chance”!), I’d be doing what connections say they’re going to do. Reasoning, he’s a 3yo colt who is G1-placed and who has won a couple of G2s. To enhance his future stud value now he really needs to win the Arc, not just be placed in it. And – as we’re all saying – there’s a big obstacle there in the name of Enable, not to mention others who might yet turn up like Ulysses, Highland Reel and OOSG (who are more than a bit better than the ones he’s been beating up recently). On balance, I’d say the chances are he’d run well but there’s a risk that the brutal race that the Arc is might leave its mark on him. So, as an owner, I’d much rather be patient with him, put him away thinking he’s the absolute king-pin, and then campaign him appropriately as a 4yo, with the Arc as his planned end-of-year target, not an after-thought.
Interesting that you mention Workforce & Rail Link as comparisons. Workforce is the one who is much nearer Cracksman in racing style and current ratings (RPR of 128). Rail Link, as I recall, had much more instant acceleration than either of these two and is the type that more commonly wins an Arc. Both of them had already won G1s ahead of the Arc, so in that sense they didn’t have so much riding on their participation. Workforce had a really tough race in the Arc, beating Nakayama Festa by a head. As a 4yo he won the G3 Brigadier Gerard and then was second in the Eclipse (to So You Think) and in the KG (to Nathaniel) before bombing out at Longchamp again – he probably remembered it! After a few years in Japan, he’s currently standing at Knockhouse, as a dual-purpose sire. As Ginge says, Cracksman has ‘an excellent turn of foot for a 12 furlong horse’ … & there’s the nub in these speed-obsessed days. If I were connections, I’d be looking to campaign him in such a way that he doesn’t take the fast track to becoming a dual-purpose sire. Just think – if he ran in the Arc and got injured he’s a 3yo colt who is 2xG1 placed and who has won a couple of G2s, all over 12f. That’s a NH sire.
Of course, if anything prevented Enable from running, I might think again!
All good points Titus but let’s remember that this plan to put him away after the Voltigeur was conceived back in June after the Irish Derby when Pat Smullen got off him and said he was still green and needed more time. For sure, that day, he WAS green. He should really have won that race but took too long to get going and didn’t quite get up (though you might argue PS gave him a bit much to do!) At the time I thought their reasoning made sense. The horse still clearly had plenty to learn. But SINCE then he has won a Voltigeur by 6 lengths running sectionals that had Timeform purring even if the opposition wasn’t top class and he has then won an Arc trial by the best part of 4 lengths. JG himself has said that he has improved a lot since The Curragh which is why they changed their minds about running him after York. Yes he will face better horses in the Arc but he wouldn’t need to improve very much on what he has shown so far to be very competitive against a field that have, for the most part, got big question marks hanging over them. I am sure that were Enable not from the same stable, they would have little hesitation in running him. Someone very wise said on here the other day that if they were both to run they might just set it up for something else as their similar running styles and boundless stamina meant they would probably take each other on quite early in the straight. So Cracksman WOULD then have a hard race. I just don’t think you should avoid a race because of one horse even if she IS from the same stable.
You can never be certain of victory in a race as competitive as the Arc but I would question whether it is likely to be any easier for Cracksman next year. THIS year you have a horse in great form, with experience of the track and with only one serious adversary. Run him I say!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Woman wins on debut in Australia! The 33rd Frankel to win on debut out of 61 winners.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Very strong words from Tom Segal in this week’s Weekender – “it would be one of the strangest decisions in the history of sport, let alone racing, if Cracksman missed the race to leave the path clear for his stablemate.”
On the fact that Enable and Cracksman are from the same yard and therefore may avoid each other for that reason he says “if Paul Nicholls or Michael Dickinson or Aiden O’Brien thought the same way we would never have had some of the defining moments in the sport’s long history.”
I have to say I am with him on this….. Worth reading the whole article.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
A great article especially for you number-crunchers out there. The bottom line is “there has never been a stallion like Frankel” –
https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/astonishing-rise-frankel-goes-its-now-time-believe/"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Just read that article Joni and it just makes your heart swell with pride for what Frankel has achieved in such a short space of time..a horse of a lifetime and feel privileged to be part of history in the making.
Hope Cracksman takes his chances too.
Battery fading…
..great posts from yourself and Titus
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Very strong words from Tom Segal in this week’s Weekender – “it would be one of the strangest decisions in the history of sport, let alone racing, if Cracksman missed the race to leave the path clear for his stablemate.”
On the fact that Enable and Cracksman are from the same yard and therefore may avoid each other for that reason he says “if Paul Nicholls or Michael Dickinson or Aiden O’Brien thought the same way we would never have had some of the defining moments in the sport’s long history.”
I have to say I am with him on this….. Worth reading the whole article.
It´s funny these articles never surface, when AOB jerks his fillies around to not hurt the stud value of his colts. Where was the outcry, when Winter skipped the Irish Champion Stakes in favour of the Matron, because of Churchill. If Enable were with AOB, she´d probably be running in the Breeders Cup F&M instead of the Arc.
As we are coming towards the time of year when the jumpers take centre stage for me, I thought I would put together some of my main Frankel thoughts for this season, organised around two themes.
1: The “Missing Frankel’s”
From the start, attention was drawn to the low number of runners (see Tony Morris’ article in TOB). This is improving but still noticeable. The combined first/second crop statistics for second-season sires in mid-September 2017 show Frankel on 82 runners (c.f. Nathaniel – 103, Excelebration – 106, Bated Breath – 108, Helmet – 103, all of whom had roughly comparable book sizes).
Crop 1 gives the best indication of the patterns behind the numbers. It contained 125 foals (64 colts, 61 fillies); of these 76 had raced (taken as a record in the RP database) by 16 September 2017 (60%). 47 are colts (some of whom have been gelded); 29 are fillies. So, whereas 27% of the colt foals had not made the racecourse by mid-September, the comparable figure for fillies is 52%.
In answer to the question, why are the runners on the low side, then, we need to look more to the fillies. Whereas the evidence from last year seemed to suggest that the fillies were more tractable than the colts, this was on the basis of the relatively small numbers who raced at 2. For whatever reason (injury, temperament, ability, maturity, residual value, or a combination of those), the data from Crop 1 suggests that Frankel’s fillies are less likely to make the track than the colts. Although it’s early days, Crop 2’s runners seem to be showing the beginnings of the same pattern – 17 runners to date, 3 of whom are fillies. I am thinking – is this another Mill Reef or Montjeu?
2: Performance
Again focusing on Crop 1, and taking those offspring with a RPR: 21 members of Crop 1 have a top RPR > 100 (11 colts, 2 geldings, and 7 fillies). The 21/76 figure is what gives Frankel his stellar performance stats (28% of runners are L class and above).
Drilling down into the stats, however, gives a more nuanced picture. There are 2 G1 standard colts (Cracksman – RPR 123, Eminent – RPR 117) – although neither has yet won a G1. One filly (Soul Stirring – RPR 112, in Japan) has won a G1. Of a crop of 125 foals, then, only 1 is a proper G1 performer with a rating > 120. 9 have ratings of 110 – 115. They are the G2/3 class animals. 9 others have ratings in the 100-109 range, and so are L/G3 class horses.At the top end, with one 120+ performer from his first crop, Frankel’s figures are no different to many of the best sires. Instead, what is marking him out with his first crop is the weight of numbers in the L-G2 bracket. This is exceptional by any standards. As anticipated, the majority of these have achieved their best RPR as 3yos. Some may well improve on that as 4 & 5yos. But there are also four (interestingly, all of them fillies) who have not progressed from 2 to 3, including ones that were being lauded to the rafters last year, notably Mi Suerte, Fair Eva and Queen Kindly. The non-progression theme is one that seems to characterise a lot of those with a RPR > 100. If there is a pattern emerging with many of Frankel’s better offspring it is that they start out as very promising maiden winners (many of them win first time out), advance quickly to their peak rating and then plateau (or regress).
The headline performance negative, of course, is the zero G1 winners in Europe in his first crop (currently). In comparison to his key second-season sire contemporaries, Frankel is currently out-performed on ratings terms and on G1 wins by Nathaniel (Enable – RPR, 128) and Excelebration (Barney Roy – RPR, 124). These two, whilst well supported, were on 2013 fees of £20000 and €22500 respectively (~ a fifth of Frankel’s). Helmet (Thunder Snow – RPR, 119), on a 2013 fee of £10000 (less than a tenth of Frankel’s), is hard on their heels in terms of top ratings/G1 wins.
The fee qualification is central to tempering Frankel’s early headline stats. His outstanding figures come from a book comprising the most stellar collection of mares possibly ever assembled for a first season sire. This was to give Frankel every possible chance of succeeding as an elite stallion. That means that to compare Frankel’s performance now against other stallions at the same career stage is extremely risky. Instead, there is a need to attempt to mediate for the effect of book quality.
Whilst many of the mares in Frankel’s first book were classy performers in their own right, or close relatives, the most significant sub-category of mares for evaluating his performance comparatively is the black-type producers i.e. mares who have already established their ability to produce high quality stock to other stallions. The numbers here give an indication of the comparative advantage that Frankel had with his first book: of the mares with Crop 1 foals, 23 are already between them the dams of 30 G1 winners. They include the dams of Byword, Treasure Beach, Lope de Vega, Dubawi, Naaqoos, Special Duty, Decorated Knight, Finsceal Beo, Stacelita, Arcano, Laragh, Eden’s Moon, Midday, Izzi Top, Passage of Time, Timepiece and many more.
When mated to Frankel, to date 4 of these G1-producing mares (Honorine, Binche, Lady Vettori and Zomaradah) have produced offspring with a RPR > 100. So, 19% of Frankel’s stakes’ grade progeny is from this group of mares. But, where do their Frankel progeny sit in ratings terms in their overall record? The answer is ‘mid-tier’:
Honorine (2000): Treasure Beach (Galileo – 121); Elidor (Cape Cross – 114); Count Octave (112); Honor Bound (Authorised – 98); Heartless (New Approach – 85); Honorina (Sea the Stars – 84); Early Morning Rain (Rock of Gibraltar – 44).
Binche (1999): Byword (Peintre Celebre – 126); Proviso (Dansili – 114); Finche (111); Navarre (Dansili – 91); Zatsfine (Oasis Dream – 90); Adjective (Dansili – 83); Louviere (Alhaarth – 74); Askew (Beat Hollow – 68).
Lady Vettori (1997): Lope de Vega (Shamardal – 121), Lord of the Land (Shamardal – 114); Light the Stars (Sea the Stars – 106); Lady Frankel (105); Bal de la Rose (Cadeaux Genereux – 104); Le Roc (Montjeu – 94); Leap Ahead (Desert Prince – 90); Lavande Violet (Hurricane Run – 69); Flower Bowl (Anabaa – 69).
Zomaradah (1995): Dubawi (Dubai Millenium – 128); Emirates Queen (Street Cry – 113); Princess Nada (Barathea – 105); UAE King (104); Dubai Queen (Kingmambo – 102) Mubrook (Alhaarth – 90); Suba (Seeking the Gold – 86).
The same pattern emerges from the four additional G1-producing mares who have produced offspring with a RPR > 85 from Frankel:
Straight Lass (1998): Naaqoos (Oasis Dream – 119); Barastraight (Barathea – 110); Sizing Stars (Sea the Stars – 99); Straight Shooter (94); Mubaarez (Green Desert – 86); Soundstrings (Oasis Dream – 81); La Pedrera (Danehill Dancer – 77); Winter Queen (Dubawi – 71); Isobel Archer (Oasis Dream – 71); Della Bravo (Dalakhani – 33).
Rosie’s Posy (1999): Make Believe (Makfi – 121); Dubawi Heights (Dubawi – 117); Generous Thought (Cadeaux Genereux – 105): Estikmaal (Oasis Dream – 99); San Remo (94); Welsh Dancer (Dubawi – 79); Hazy Days (Green Desert – 55)
Quest to Peak (2002): Special Duty (Hennessy – 117); Presidency (Oasis Dream – 103); Icespire (91); Exemplify (Dansili – 89); Venitoux (Galileo – 76).
Model Queen (1998): Regal Parade (Pivotal – 121); Hot Prospect (Motivator – 116); Entifaadha (Dansili – 107); Mount Helicon (Montjeu – 106); Sea the Skies (Sea the Stars – 88); Commander (88); Sister Sylvia (Fantastic Light – 87); Mokhaiad (Dubawi – 81); Convention (Encosta de Lago – 77); Canyon Ranch (Danehill Dancer – 71).
The other 15 G1-producing mares with Frankel foals in Crop 1 are between them responsible for 31 horses with a RPR > 100. Some have produced multiple individuals of this level, mostly to different stallions (Oatsee – 5; Clepsydra – 4; Zee Zee Top – 3; Midsummer – 3). Yet, the Frankel offspring from this set of 15 are either currently nowhere near this league, or unraced.
The mares are the forgotten piece in the Frankel jigsaw at the moment. Such is their quality (at least in Books 1 and 2) that the normal benchmark for assessing stallion progression (‘upgrading’ evidence) is made impossible to answer. Analysing these great matriarchs’ progeny, however, suggests that there are some important areas of qualification beyond the headline early comparative stats. For now I’m keeping an open mind, but if one of the marks of a great stallion is his capacity to produce a comparable level of quality from top quality producing mares then Frankel has a way to go still.
Where to start. I’m neither pro or anti Frankel and as he is by the God of stallions I understand the fascination with him but here’s my take.
1. For a new sire on stats alone doing well but whether up to justifying his fee debatable..
2. Seems to be getting a lot of good horses buy no top ones as yet.
3. Hard to see what the best distance of his offspring is but seems to be trending towards further than he went where the speed he has is diluted.
4. In comparison with his dad light years behind especially given he’s been sent the best book of mares ever sent in a stations first few seasons.
5. There is still time but he needs a couple of top horses very soon or the market could turn to the likes of Australia who seems to bred and exceptional looking first crop and some outstanding looking batch. Doesn’t mean they will be good of course.
6. He will be given time as after galileo there is no outstanding stallion and a few of the really good ones are either retired like Cape cross or nearing the end of their stud careers.
7. Fwiw it could be his progeny aren’t a copy of him like his dad and until he manages to breed his xfactor then he won’t be top dog at stud. Maybe it’s just the wrong mares but as I’ve not looked fully at hi stats I can’t comment.
8. Comparisons with galileo are pointless as he is an amazing stallion who is producing more group one winners now than ever even at the age of 19.As far as cracksman goes Johnny g has always been such a ditherer and we had this before with golden horn. It is prudent to keep him ready in case something happens to enable but as a few have pointed out next seasons could see the likes of expert eye the pentagon or anyone of aobs fillies being as good if not better than enable and what happened with Almanzor could happen to any horse. Just go for it man. I think capri is as good as cracksman if not better and it could be a tough choice for Ryan moore who to pick but I think that both will go close if allowed to run. Horses who have won over further than 12f have won the arc and something tells me enable isn’t a shoein and Michael stoute obviously thinks so if he’s declared Ulysses who was stuffed by enable in the king george. Should it come up heavy in the arc then enable,capri and order of St george would be my idea of the horses fighting out the finish.
Has any of his European runners ever won three races on the trot?
And if yes, how many?
Does anyone know his stamina index for his 3-year olds?Thanks
Great post again Titus – well researched and I agree with much of it. One correction if I may – the RP database is not the best when it comes to Frankel as is doesn’t include all his worldwide runners. TDN is a better source and it shows that Frankel has had 105 starters from 215 named foals in crops 1 and 2. This is roughly equivalent to most other sires.
You are right that there are more un-raced fillies than colts but again this is very normal. Jeremy Noseda provided some interesting insight into this the other day when La Figlia ran. He said that it is better to leave a well-bred filly un-raced than race her several times and not win. I suppose this stands to reason – better to have “un-raced daughter of Frankel” than “daughter of Frankel, unplaced in 3 starts.” With the colts there is less to lose I suppose.
As for the rest I agree mostly with what you say. Frankel has exceptional stats in terms of overall win percentage (26.6) and in terms of group winners to group runners (19 from 74 – 25.7%). These figures compare favourably even to established sires with very good books like Dubawi (17.6%) and Galileo (17.1% – though he often suffers from having several in one race!) James Willoughby stated the other that “at this stage of his career, there hasn’t been a stallion like him” and he currently sits 4th in the Global Sires List – unprecedented for a second-crop sire.
I also agree that some of his progeny have failed to kick on after promising starts. Fair Eva has obviously only had 1 start this year before getting sick but certainly the likes of Queen Kindly, Mi Suerte and a few others haven’t really progressed but I don’t think many of them have have RE-gressed either. Queen Kindly is still running well in pattern races. Hopefully the likes of UAE King, Cracksman and Eminent will continue to improve as 4 year olds.
The disappointment has definitely been the shortage of Group 1 performers. Soul Stirring aside, none have been able to win at the highest level and it may even be that Frankel’s first European Group 1 comes from his second crop. Obviously I still have high hopes for the likes of Cracksman, Eminent and Soul Stirring but it is fair to say that, so far, he has been unable to produce anything even close to himself and that he is still way, way behind daddy. The 2 year-olds we have seen give us hope for the future, not least the highly impressive Tanino Frankel yesterday, but this lack of Group 1’s would certainly be my biggest disappointment with Frankel. As I have said a few times before I am surprised that not many of his possess a turn of foot. They tend to be gallopers and I think it is no coincidence that his runners have had more success recently since they have been ridden more aggressively. Like Dad they tend to be able to gallop for longer than the average horse and they often seem to run through the line which is good, but few of them actually quicken.
As you say, it is still early days but I have been very encouraged with how they have been running since June/July time and how several of them still seem to have their best days ahead of them. I am fairly certain that his covering fee will now increase next year given his success (we will find out in November) and really hope that we will start seeing Group 1 performers very soon.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
First Eleven (Frankel x Zenda) Half brother to Kingman, runs in the 2:00 at Sandown tomorrow.
Has any of his European runners ever won three races on the trot?
And if yes, how many?
Does anyone know his stamina index for his 3-year olds?Thanks
UAE King, Last Kingdom and Toulifaut have all won three on the trot. Looking at the RP his stamina index is 9.4. Certainly he has had high-class winners at distances ranging from 6f up to 2m.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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