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Smashing post Joni – and thanks for the TDN tip. For the runners data I was working off the table that was posted on Juddmonte’s Twitter feed (i.e. RP/European runners), and which is used in Kevin Blake’s second season sire commentary that appeared this week on TDN (minus Frankel … to follow later seemingly). You’re right, the RP is very patchy with respect to runners beyond Europe, other than stakes’ performers, and that is important given Frankel’s global reach. Rubelinda, for example, doesn’t yet appear in Frankel’s RP stats (although I do have her in my spreadsheets). Neither is the Chilean runner/winner (whose name currently escapes me) in there, nor Tamino Frankel. This will certainly feed into the average winning distance stat that ex Ruby Light asked for – though that 9.4 figure is pretty ‘noisy’ given this is just the first 3yo crop. Interesting to hear your observations on the fillies – I think JN is right. The residual value at the moment will mean that it’s better to keep these fillies unraced, rather than stack up a string of ‘duck eggs’. As for the colts – well, they need to get to the track, if at all possible. On which …
First Eleven was desperately disappointing today. It’s not the first time (nor the last) that a well-bred individual will do that, of course, and OK, some of it was green-ness (he fell out of the stalls) but he was being strongly encouraged along even after a couple of furlongs. Two things struck me watching the replay – ‘here’s another big colt’ and ‘he’s really slow’. Maybe he’ll improve (I certainly hope so for Juddmonte’s sake, since this is Frankel x Kingman’s mum), but as he was being ‘bumped’ round the turn at the back of the field of C5 maidens I was putting both thoughts together and thinking ‘this is a NH horse’. Not that I have any problems with that, as I much prefer jumpers – but I wouldn’t want to be paying £125k to get a NH horse (more like £5k for Pour Moi, who has already produced a Derby winner in WoE).
Like you, alongside the low number of genuine G1 performers, my biggest disappointment with Frankel the sire so far is definitely their run-style. That so many of them are gallopers, whose main attribute is that they keep galloping longer than others, but who lack a change of pace, doesn’t just mean that they are not going to win at the top level on the flat. It spells NH to me. The same concerns, of course, were around Galileo’s early crops – so maybe different mares are the answer in the longer term. But, as regards Crop 1, I am seriously wondering already how well they will jump – not just hurdles but fences. Already GE has bought one Frankel colt for hurdling. How many more of the 80-90-rated colts from Crop 1 will end up in the HiT sales this autumn? Which NH trainers will be interested? & which yards will they end up in?
Who knows – in a couple of years’ time, we could have Frankel all over the Supreme Novices’ Cheltenham thread, and all TRF’s main jumping posters posting on this one! Not quite what you’d probably have hoped for Joni – but it would certainly mean that Frankel would rule TRF!
I know what you mean, I’ve looked at some of those lovely big galloping Frankel colts and immediately thought I’d love to see them over fences. T’would be a step up in the world as far as I’m concerned
I’m pretty sure we’ll see a much improved effort from First Eleven next time – he surely can’t get any worse. I’m away in Canada this week but I saw on the wonderful Jess Samy’s Twitter feed the Racing UK guys looking at FE in the paddock and commenting on how much condition he was carrying. Obviously the Frankel’s have an exceptional record of first time out wins but this one was – well an exception!
As for some of them becoming jumpers – well no problem with that. Galileo has had hundreds of jumpers – it might actually make me start watching it again!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
There’s a hugely impressive Frankel strutting his stuff in Japan at the moment. Watch last night’s victory for the gorgeous Mozu Ascot below.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
JG confirms Cracksman a non-runner in the Arc and highly unlikely to run in the Champion. Baffling decision for me.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
JG confirms Cracksman a non-runner in the Arc and highly unlikely to run in the Champion. Baffling decision for me.
Let’s hope it pays off in the long run
Agree Mozu Ascot looks exciting (though I have no idea what the form amounts to). And what a handsome horse he is too!
I am very pleased that Cracksman will not be running in the Arc, being firmly in the camp believing that it would be detrimental to his development. Why?
“Should I run the horse in this race?” is a question that falls into the category of: “If there is any doubt the answer is No.” It is just too easy to screw up a racehorse’s development. The trainer and owner have shown plenty of doubt about whether it would good for the horse.
On a different occasion I quoted John Hammond (in a TDN article): “But I will go to my grave believing that there are a bunch of horses out there who get messed up and missed out on by having the hammer dropped on them either too soon or at moments when they can’t take it. It is very difficult to tell where that balance is. I’ve been lucky enough to win the French Derby twice but it could have been four times as there were two that I messed up.”
The stats for three-year-olds running in the Arc, and then racing as a four-year-old are very poor. Eighty percent of them never recover their earlier form. The race is a really tough race at the end of what is usually a tough season for classic-class three-year-olds; it bottoms out a lot of horses who are sometimes just not mature enough to deal with it. The stats for horses who did win the Arc as a four-year-old are similar, but in the opposite direction, if you know what I mean. Going back 30 years, eighty percent of the four-year olds who won the Arc did not race in it as a three-year-old.
Strong words from Tom Segal? Really? “.. one of the strangest decisions in the history of sport.” That should go down in the record books as the most journalisticly hyperbolic statement in racing history. With the emphasis on the last two syllables of hyperbolic. He seemed to chose three trainers whose actions did not exactly support his case. Paul Nicholls’ Denman subsequently suffered from heart or similar trouble for eighteen months after his effort to best Kauto Star. Three of Michael Dickinson’s famous five never won another race. And these were mature horses. The very top class races take their toll on even the classiest of horses. The situation of Aiden O’Brien is fairly unique (Godolphin is similar I suppose), but he has 55 Galileo three- and four-year-olds to John Gosden’s 6, and even more significantly just one owner instead of very many. Aiden’s aim for the colts is to produce stallions for Coolmore who can earn the “Boys” miraculous sums of money. They can afford to sacrifice the occasional “nearly top class” horse to find the one-in-five-years superstar stallion. Australia is earning about £10million a year with no runners on the track yet; so imagine what Galilieo is pulling in, and what they will do to find another like him. To compare the two trainers race planning opportunities is just strange. I noticed that Tom did not list any of the defining moments in the sport’s history where trainers chose (as Gosden is doing) not to pit their two best horses against each other.
Good post MV. Someone on here a while back linked to an old interview in the Independent with AOB where he stated “We destroy more horses than we make”, basically in the quest to find the next Galileo stud fee superstar. He acknowledged that the business model depends on it, and you are right, they can afford the wastage that other operations can’t.
As always a well informed and interesting post MV. Look, John Gosden has never shied away from running two horses in the same race. You only have to go back to this years King George when Enable and Jack Hobbs both lined up to know that he will run them if he thinks they have a chance. Clearly it says a lot about his opinion of Cracksman that he wants to save him from what could be a hard race. He obviously believes this horse has a very big future.
For me what was baffling was running him in Chantilly. Had they done what they said they were going to do and put him away after he won easily at York then I wouldn’t have a problem but, instead, they decided to send him to the Arc trial over the Arc distance on the Arc course and he wins THAT easily too! Is it not a bit like winning the Craven and then not running in the Guineas?
JG is a great trainer and knows more than I have forgotten and I am virtually certain that this will be a decision he has made because he thinks it is in the best interests of the horse. I just hope they and we don’t end up asking what might have been….
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Is it not a bit like winning the Craven and then not running in the Guineas?
Well…Eminent did win the Craven, in a super time, then the combined experience of the Guineas + Derby probably blew his Frankelbaby mind a bit, as evidenced by his run in the Eclipse, and Meade had to give him an easy race to undo the damage. Yes Cracksman is a cooler horse than Eminent. But still, Gosden may view Eminent as a cautionary tale.
If Cracksman was mine, I probably wouldn’t run him in the Arc if the trainer advised against. I certainly wouldn’t run him in the Champion. I might, however, have run him in that seemingly rather weak Group 1 in Cologne yesterday before packing him off for the winter.
A big few days for the Frankel’s with lots of these promising 2 year-olds stepping up into group company. I’m especially excited to see Midi in his maiden tomorrow plus Elarqaam, Herculean, Betty F, Lightening Quick and Nelson in the Royal Lodge. Hopefully we’ll see a couple of winners. It was nice to see Zabriskie and Spanish Point finish 1 and 2 yesterday in Ireland. Aiden has 4 Frankel’s and they ALL look good.
One horse we won’t be seeing is Cracksman. The debate continues in the Weekender this week with Simon Holt calling the decision “baffling” and Tom Segal saying that it was taken not in the best interests of the horse but the best interests of the trainer and the jockey. We have seen on here that it has polarised opinion. I will just state a couple of facts that might explain why I think his handling has been strange:
He was considered ready for the Derby in June and finished a close up 3rd.
He was still considered ready for the Irish Derby in July and finished an even closer up 2nd.
He was aimed at the major St Leger trial which he won by 6 lengths but then didn’t run in the Leger.
He was aimed at the major Arc trial for 3 year-olds which he won by 4 lengths but then didn’t run in the Arc because he is considered not ready.
He was taken out of a Derby trial because of good to soft ground but then runs and wins on it in the Voltigeur before winning easily on soft in the Prix Niel.
You can’t really blame people for scratching their heads no?"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
He was considered ready for the Derby in June and finished a close up 3rd.
I think had Cracksman run in the Dante he would’ve been ready for the Derby and won it,Joni. Therefore Gosden is probably well aware of his mistake. ie Cracksman was not ready for the Derby and does not want to make the same mistake this time.He was still considered ready for the Irish Derby in July and finished an even closer up 2nd.
Cracksman was ready, or at least ready enough to win a Group 1 for 3 year olds. Would’ve won with a better ride.He was aimed at the major St Leger trial which he won by 6 lengths but then didn’t run in the Leger.
Voltigeur may be thought of as the “St Leger trial”, but Cracksman is far from certain to have stayed the St Leger trip. In his case the more relevent factor is that the Voltigeur is also the only Group 2 mile and a half race confined to three year olds at that time of year. Which was also the probable reason for Voltigeur second favourite Mirage Dancer running there (another one that had no intention of going on to Donny).He was aimed at the major Arc trial for 3 year-olds which he won by 4 lengths but then didn’t run in the Arc because he is considered not ready.
At the time Cracksman ran in the Chantilly race he was still a possible runner in the Arc, made sense to give him a run there for experience. With the second favourite running poorly, although he won by 4 lengths did not need to be at his best. Fitted in at the right time for both possible end of season targets, Arc or Champion Stakes.He was taken out of a Derby trial because of good to soft ground but then runs and wins on it in the Voltigeur before winning easily on soft in the Prix Niel.
As far as I can remember, the withdrawl from the Dante was because a “hard race” on the expected soft ground may not have given him time to recover before the Derby. ie Withdrawl was nothing to do with not acting on the surface and everything to do with recovery time. That particular consideration did not come in to it at York or France.You can’t really blame people for scratching their heads no?
May be Joni, you and I might think Cracksman should have gone for the Arc but there are possible valid reasons for those words/actions/decisions.Value Is EverythingNice post, MV.
I had a few quid on Cracksman for the Arc about which I have no remorse as the price easily justified it.
Nor would I question Gosden’s decision not to run; he’s a fine trainer. What I would like to know is why he decided not to run. I agree with everything MV says about potentially ruining horses – it’s happened many times even with hardened individuals: how many horses have been finished by a great Grand National performance?
But if Gosden was convinced the Arc would come too soon for Cracksman, why enter him? Speculating on him acquiring the mental and physical maturity required ‘just in time’ to run? Highly unlikely. Further, why hold off so long on a decision? Why did the owner apparently tell a journalist that participation would hinge on a gallop that was planned for today?
Something has happened we don’t know about; maybe he didn’t eat up, perhaps a recent piece of work was less than inspirational. Could it be that Enable is flying at home and no matter how they looked at it they could not see him beating the filly?
Do any of you buy what seems to be the public reason – Frankie wasn’t available? I don’t. I don’t know why the horse was withdrawn but if Gosden was still concerned about the race harming the horse, he has not said so recently, at least not in a publication I can find.
If I had to bet on one of the choices it would be that they believe he cannot beat Enable under any circumstances. The result on Sunday will go some way to telling us if they were right.
A son of Frankel becomes the top lot at Goffs. A son of Belesta has just gone for 1.6mill euros. Will be trained by Aiden apparently.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Mark – is it possible for a horse to be ready for a Derby in June or July but not for an Arc in October? Seems odd. Especially as they all say he has improved a lot since The Curragh. Maybe it is but I am struggling to remember a precedent. Remember 17 of the last 23 Arcs have been won by 3 year-olds.
I agree that JG was worried about a hard race at York but the ground wasn’t that soft was it? And now we all seem to agree he needed the run that day to get him right for Epsom. Fair enough – we all make mistakes.
They have always been consistent about not running him in the Arc so I don’t think we can say he was ever a possible can we? If he was then what more would he have needed to do at Chantilly to make him a probable?
Reading the Weekender today it seems that Cracksman impressed in his work last week so I doubt there is anything wrong with the horse. I think Frankie believes Enable will win but would certainly not want the horse he turned down stopping her.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Another day another winner as Monarch’s Glen shows a really good attitude to win at Goodwood. Thankfully this is one of those Frankel 3 year-olds who has done nothing but improve. He is a big, strong looking colt who could be even better next year. I’ll be at Newmarket tomorrow to see the wonderful Jac and you can bet that the two of us will be cheering on those Frankel’s with full voice!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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