- This topic has 185 replies, 34 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
PS I hope Long Run wins well at Warwick, gets even shorter in price and pushes out the odds on Weird Al and Diamond Harry, to me the most likely to come home 1-2…but in which order? That is what I’m having a problem with
If there is an over hyped horse in the RSA then Weird Al must be pretty high on the list. Long Run’s stance in the RSA market is fully justifed.
CS, if you don’t rate Long Run’s form…..or you don’t like his jumping technique…..or you think he is a false price…………or you think he is over-raced….then it would have been helpful if you had said so originally, instead of suggesting he is all hype, which he patently is not.
tbracing
Have you seen something I’ve missed? Serious question as I’m still torn between "Al" and "Harry"
WEIRD AL (IMO)
Jumps perfectly, not a semblance of an error in 3 chases
Can come with a late rattle or push on from 2 or 3 out
Settles really well,
Has winning course experience
Stays well
Appears to have no mental traits or sides to him
Is better value due to less fashionable yard/jockey
If Willie Mullins had him he’d be favourite
Improved with every runAlthough I was on 2st time out at 20-1…word was he could not be beat that day…I won’t let loyalty sway my final decision which might well be not to have a bet in the race if I can’t split them…or back them both ew, something I very rarely do
McCoy will have a ride in the race, and there will be a few French-breds in it. Won’t you be swerving it, for betting purposes?
Grasshopper
I think you’ll find I’d mentioned most of these points re Long Run in the past..except perhaps his "over-raced young horse" past, that’s how they do things in France, and that, to me, is not the way to train top flight chasers, they need plenty of time to mature. I believe this is one of the main reasons why so few top grade hurdlers fail to make top grade chasers, too much racing in their younger days
….and to save you mentioning them Dawn Run, Night Nurse et al..every rule has exceptions
McCoy will have a ride in the race, and there will be a few French-breds in it. Won’t you be swerving it, for betting purposes?
If I fancied one of the ex-French horses or I fancied McCoy’s mount, yes I would leave the race well alone. What is McCoy on BTW?
I do fancy Punchestowns as the clear 3rd best in the RSA but he was never trained or raced as a jumper in France, to me it’s more the early over racing than the breeding that I don’t like
Just to re-assure you with regards to Punchestowns CS – he had 7 starts in France between June 2006 (debut at Granville) and August 2007 (defeat to top hurdler/chaser Portal’s Toy at Clairefontaine). He was raced in AQPS races (effectively French-bumpers) and given he was with Phillipe Chemin will have been well schooled for a hurdles debut – probably at Auteuil later in 2007.
tbracing
Have you seen something I’ve missed? Serious question as I’m still torn between "Al" and "Harry"
WEIRD AL (IMO)
Jumps perfectly, not a semblance of an error in 3 chases
Can come with a late rattle or push on from 2 or 3 out
Settles really well,
Has winning course experience
Stays wellAppears to have no mental traits or sides to him
Is better value due to less fashionable yard/jockey
If Willie Mullins had him he’d be favouriteImproved with every run
Some perfectly valid points and I’m not arguing some of them, but you seem pretty blind sighted to whats been acheived by other runners in the race.
You have a pretty poor perception of the market place if you think he’d be favourite if trained by Mullins. The ability of Long Run and Punchestowns is undoubted and there for all to see, even Daimond Harry and thats why they are where they are. Weird Al hasn’t set form standards as high as the others ahead of him yet simply and thats why he is a longer price. A bigger price doesn’t mean he is better value.
He’s beaten the same horse twice now in Knockara Beau, whilst a good horse wouldn’t get his nose up Long Runs ass let alone upside him.
Just for info, and reading our handicappers’ weekly blog (shameless plug – http://www.britishhorseracing.com/goracing/blogs/handicappers.asp) the current ratings/performance ratings are:
Long Run – 160
Punchestowns – 159
Weird Al – 150There’s still no rating for Diamond Harry but after his chase debut the handicappers was quoted as saying "looks likely to transfer all his 163-rated hurdling ability to fences", and given the Knockara Beau line, I think it’s safe to say he’d be sat at around that mark (163) after Saturday.
That confirms that Weird Al therefore has a lot to find on the ratings but his jumping and attitude will surely stand him in good stead in what’s looking like an unusually strong renewal imo.
Correction – Long Run is on 161 (gone up 1lb today, which must be a ‘collateral form’ rise).
If Diamond Harry ran to 163 at Haydock or even close to it for that matter, then you can call me Raymond Van Barnfeld. Denman ran off 2 lb lower than that when winning his first Hennessy, and that took into account his demolition job in the Royal and SunAlliance.
Correction – Long Run is on 161 (gone up 1lb today, which must be a ‘collateral form’ rise).
Thank you for posting those Paul, a quick question too if possible:
Do the handicappers at the BHA only look at the form shown by the likes of Tazbar, Tchico Polos etc. when assessing Long Run’s UK mark or did they take into account the Maurice Gillois runner-up – Rubi Ball’s three subsequent easy wins in Graded/Listed company at Auteuil and Pau?
I know they certainly handicap French form where neccesary, and I’ve sent your question over to them for a specific response.
Just for info, and reading our handicappers’ weekly blog (shameless plug – http://www.britishhorseracing.com/goracing/blogs/handicappers.asp) the current ratings/performance ratings are:
Long Run – 160
Punchestowns – 159
Weird Al – 150There’s still no rating for Diamond Harry but after his chase debut the handicappers was quoted as saying "looks likely to transfer all his 163-rated hurdling ability to fences", and given the Knockara Beau line, I think it’s safe to say he’d be sat at around that mark (163) after Saturday.
That confirms that Weird Al therefore has a lot to find on the ratings but his jumping and attitude will surely stand him in good stead in what’s looking like an unusually strong renewal imo.
REPLY
I’d agree with the 163 (minimum) on Diamond Harry but I can’t see a stone between him and "Al" even on the bare bones of the form lines, I felt that Weird Al had plenty in hand on Saturday and wasn’t asked draw away from Knockara Beau, giving the jockey on the runner-up enough hope to keep him up to his task. Harry, on the other hand, bolted clear of Knocara Beau who wasn’t asked too much after that with the race effectively over in a matter of 100 yards or so
Weird Al has more scope than the others and, as you say, his attitude and jumping will see him in good stead and I agree this looks a very good RSA where jumping will win the day, my only reservation re Diamond Harry is his mind seems to wander at least once during the majority of his races, I feel the one part of the race where he might just be at risk would be if he’s still cantering on the bit coming down the hill and starts wandering around as if he’s bored with it all.If Diamond Harry ran to 163 at Haydock or even close to it for that matter, then you can call me Raymond Van Barnfeld. Denman ran off 2 lb lower than that when winning his first Hennessy, and that took into account his demolition job in the Royal and SunAlliance.
And wouldn’t Denman have won that day with a stone more on his back?
Of course he would, 161 was utterly ludicrous, thankfully for me as I won a five figure sum that day Denman coupled with Archibald and Inglis Drever
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.