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Or put it another way, “value is everything”.
Like the rest of the world, GT, you’ve been Trumped!
Thank you for the kind offer, which I regret that on this occasion I must decline as I am laying the hind quarters off Thistlecrack at 7/2 on Betfair.
Vicario di Bray won a Champion Hurdle trial at Haydock, beating half the leading fancies for that race. His next outing was the Tote Gold Trophy (“The Schweppes”) for which he was considered something of a blot on the handicap and started 4/7 favourite carrying 10-9. That morning the Racing Post carried the front page headline “Act of God needed to stop Vicario di Bray.” He was beaten three lengths.
Or put it another way, “value is everything”.
Very good SSK. :lol: “Value is everything” and it can be found in anything from outsiders to favourites.
Headlines are made to catch the eye on a newspaper’s front page, often exaggerating truth and linked to something else. In Tudour times the human Vicario Di Bray was an English Cleric switching from Roman Catholic to Protestant depending who’s in power. Hence the “act of God needed to stop Vicario Di Bray” an exaggeration of the horse’s chance. Punters probably did not understand the religious undertones and took too much notice of the headline, thinking it was an accurate assessment of the writer’s opinion. You’re right, VDB not having the chance betting suggested.
The bang in-form, improving, mud loving, strongly run race loving (hold up racehorse) – Vicario Di Bray – wins on heavy ground the strongly run Daily Mail Racedial Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock… Beating previous year’s Champion Hurdle winner Celtic Shot (who was conceding 6 lbs) 2 lengths.
Thrown in at the weights for the Schweppes Gold Trophy, but it was run under very different conditions. Dropped out last (the worst place possible) in a less than truly run race on this time good ground – Newbury testing speed much more than stamina of the Haydock test – beaten by the more prominently ridden, speedier type Grey Salute.
In contrast, Thistlecrack doesn’t seem beholden to ground, speed or stamina constraints. Appearing equally effective on heavy or good, can be ridden from the front, mid-div or held up, at 3m+ has speed that makes him fully effective in slowly run races and stamina to burn in truly run affairs.
Value Is EverythingNice piece, Gingertipster. It’s a day that I remember well, mainly involving a jolly lunch in the old members restaurant, during the course of which I just about covered my losses with a bet on what one of my companions would have for pudding
Nice piece, Gingertipster. It’s a day that I remember well, mainly involving a jolly lunch in the old members restaurant, during the course of which I just about covered my losses with a bet on what one of my companions would have for pudding
Not sure whether I was there that day.
First time I went to Newbury was 1985 for the Stroud Green Hurdle (day before the Schweppes) where Grey Salute’s trainer John Jenkins had the winner Wing And A Prayer. Had bets in four races that day, won all four. Other winners if I remember rightly were Ragged Robin, Gold Tycoon and possibly Western Sunset.
Gradually increased my visits to the course and been a member for a while. Though I don’t frequent the restaurant.
Do you still go to Newbury SSK? If so, give me a shout.
Value Is EverythingSo disappointing to see just three rivals stand their ground against Thistlecrack tomorrow…Aqalim being one of them! Suppose it will be another canter round and another point, point and a half clipped off his price for Cheltenham…frustrating…
Tizz won’t be happy either I’d think. If he has the KG in mind, the horse needs experience in some rough and tumble. Might well have been better off running him against 8 or 9 in the Betfair
Hope they don’t lead with Thistlecrack. Needs to jump in amongst horses to give him experience – if going for the King George. May be if having an easy race could turn up at Newbury too.
Value Is EverythingI think that error unsettled Scudamore more than it did the horse – definitely needs experience in a decent sized field and he’s not going to get that in these little Novice Chases.
I think that error unsettled Scudamore more than it did the horse – definitely needs experience in a decent sized field and he’s not going to get that in these little Novice Chases.
That’s true Joe, however, don’t think he’s ready for a King George unless he can make all. That’s unlikely if Coneygree takes part.
What I got from today was he’s great when in front but gets put off (particularly at ditches) when someone’s in front of him. If surrounded by experienced good jumping top class horses on Boxing Day it could end badly for that race and future prospects.
Value Is EverythingI think that error unsettled Scudamore more than it did the horse – definitely needs experience in a decent sized field and he’s not going to get that in these little Novice Chases.
I fully agree with you. The Worcester Novice Chase at Newbury in two weeks time could be a more informative target. Anyway after this poor round of jumping his price is down to 7/2.
I think that error unsettled Scudamore more than it did the horse – definitely needs experience in a decent sized field and he’s not going to get that in these little Novice Chases.
Sadly, I think you have hit the nail on the head. Over hurdles Scudamore didn’t have to do much more to do than sit on the horse. It is that much more difficult over fences and I think he made a mess of it today. I have no problem if he sends the horse forward as he did at an early fence but I don’t think you can keep changing tactics at every fence. It sends out mixed messages to an inexperienced horse. Full credit to Thistlecrack, I think many horses with less scope would have ended up injured or on the deck.
Hopefully, this will be a wake up call for the jock.
I think Coneygree’s win has blinded punters to the fact that it’s simply very difficult for novices to win a gold cup.
Thistlecrack is clearly a huge talent with a massive engine, you could argue he’s a bit of a freak of a horse. But those novicey errors he won’t be able to get away with in the Gold cup, and it’s doubtful that the space of a few months will be able to bridge that gap, whatever races he runs in.
On the plus side for him it looks a very weak gold cup this year, so anything remains possible.
I think that error unsettled Scudamore more than it did the horse – definitely needs experience in a decent sized field and he’s not going to get that in these little Novice Chases.
Sadly, I think you have hit the nail on the head. Over hurdles Scudamore didn’t have to do much more to do than sit on the horse. It is that much more difficult over fences and I think he made a mess of it today. I have no problem if he sends the horse forward as he did at an early fence but I don’t think you can keep changing tactics at every fence. It sends out mixed messages to an inexperienced horse. Full credit to Thistlecrack, I think many horses with less scope would have ended up injured or on the deck.
Hopefully, this will be a wake up call for the jock.
Can’t see how it can be Tom’s fault.
No good keeping on running around tracks not seeing another horse, because time will come when he is amongst horses and then doesn’t know what to do. Far better using a novice chase to educate the horse rather than seeing horses in front of him for the first time and because of it making mistakes in a King George or Gold Cup.Value Is EverythingTrouble is, GT, they don’t have that much time if the GC remains the target. You can never tell what’s in a jockey’s mind (or anyone else’s!), but Scu has been treating the ride on this horse like a set of crown jewels, and I can understand that. He’s talked of nerves in the days and nights before the horse runs and maybe I’ve added all that in to the interpretation of today. But I think Stilvi is right. If you don’t have time for the conventional novice route and steady education on the track, you might as well settle on tactics and stay with them.
I’d like to have seen him get in among them but perhaps it just does not suit the horse. Making the running all the time did no harm to Coneygree’s jumping and maybe they should simply utilise that massive engine and his comfort in any position to crack on from the start and race at a pace that suits the horse rather than trying to school him.
Making the running all the time did no harm to Coneygree’s jumping and maybe they should simply utilise that massive engine and his comfort in any position to crack on from the start and race at a pace that suits the horse rather than trying to school him.
That’s just it though Joe. Coneygree did not have a Coneygree to bother about, therefore the Bradstock horse could try and go from the front every time… Although just like Thistlecrack, Coneygree was headed for a few fences on his second chase start (Feltham). Tizzards know if they run in the King George or Gold Cup they’ll probably be taking on Coneygree and they can’t both lead… And what happens in future if something else goes on at a suicidal pace? Does Tom just go faster and runs out of puff (Remember Desert Orchid and Nupsala)? I said before today’s race that I hoped they let something else lead for this very reason. If Thistlecrack can’t jump a fence when there’s just one horse in front of him then that’ll always be a weakness rivals can exploit. Therefore trying to teach the horse in these early races is the best thing to do. ie Even though it makes that particular race more difficult to win and might make a mistake or two – it makes life easier for the future if able to let something else lead when pace is too strong.
Value Is Everything
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