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I think you have to be an exceptional jumper of fences to be a gold cup winner as a novice and I don’t think thistlecrack falls into that category, not on the evidence we’ve seen so far.
If Thistlecrack can’t jump a fence when there’s just one horse in front of him then that’ll always be a weakness rivals can exploit.
That isn’t what happened today. He had specific problems at three ditches where the horse decided what he wanted to do, not Scudamore. On the last occasion Scudamore was a little braver and there wasn’t really much of an issue. I don’t think the ‘mistakes’ had anything to do with following another horse. The question is just whether he is a better horse if he is allowed to stride on.
I would be quite happy if he has another two runs before the Gold Cup. Those races need to be selected very carefully as the one big day is in March. Today’s race was tougher than ideal and I think a little break might be of more benefit than another quick race.
Coneygree also has a way to go to make that March date. I doubt very much that the two will clash beforehand.
MUST ADMIT I AGREE WITH GINGER. HE WAS JUST GOING TO SLOWLY, I THINK AT PACE IN THESE MICKEY MOUSE RACES WILL SEE A BETTER THISTLECRACK.
Hmmm: I’ve watched the replay twice now – and so confused was I by this that I then went and watched his Chepstow round as a comparison, and then the Long Walk replay.
The things that struck me on the comparisons were that he jumped much better at Chepstow and that he had absolutely no problem racing mid-division, alongside and jumping upsides other horses over hurdles. The latter was a surprise reminder because at one point today I thought I was watching a horse that needed to be kept apart from others, up front and out of sight of another horse. So, I’m of the view that positioning him like this in the race today was all about jumping worries.
Cheltenham is well known as a tough jumping test for a novice, especially early on in their novice season, and as a course that will show up issues. One thing that showed up was that the horse spent much of the race on his right (i.e. wrong) lead. More obvious were the jumping problems. Today Thistlecrack had a problem with everything that wasn’t a standard fence. It was particularly noticeable at the ditches, but he was also novice-y at the water. The first ditch though is what really concerned me. It was a total horlicks, as well as the sort of mistake that can do their backs no good at all. From what I can see, TS didn’t do anything wrong there; the horse just didn’t see that he had another stride in there and took off a mile too far, without any reason for it. He did something a bit similar at a ditch at Chepstow, but got away with that one. This isn’t being ‘brave’ or attacking fences, as some of the race commentators are suggesting. Rather, as anyone who has jumped horses will know, it’s just the sort of thing that some horses do when faced with a jump they’re not sure about. It’s not clever, and it’s certainly not nice to ride them when they do this! So, I can see why TS was then trying to make his mind up for him.
Hopefully the horse will learn from this, but ironing out these sorts of issues isn’t easy.
I was with him all the way over hurdles (where he was strangely underrated for a lot of last season) but sad to say I can’t have him over jumps on evidence of today. We all have our preferences but I still believe that punters often make too many excuses for poor jumping animals. There is simply very little room for error at the top.
If Thistlecrack can’t jump a fence when there’s just one horse in front of him then that’ll always be a weakness rivals can exploit.
That isn’t what happened today. He had specific problems at three ditches where the horse decided what he wanted to do, not Scudamore. On the last occasion Scudamore was a little braver and there wasn’t really much of an issue. I don’t think the ‘mistakes’ had anything to do with following another horse. The question is just whether he is a better horse if he is allowed to stride on.
I would be quite happy if he has another two runs before the Gold Cup. Those races need to be selected very carefully as the one big day is in March. Today’s race was tougher than ideal and I think a little break might be of more benefit than another quick race.
Coneygree also has a way to go to make that March date. I doubt very much that the two will clash beforehand.
I agree with you Stilvi, that Thistlecrack currently has a specific problem with open ditches. You might be right that it has nothing to do with following another horse. But imo (at the moment) this problem is probably made worse when following horses. At times he seemed to be distracted, wanting to take off at the same time as the horse in front of him.
I disagree, if Thistlecrack is to run in the Gold Cup and (if Cue Card doesn’t impress in the Betfair) King George this season – the more experience at jumping ditches/behind another horse in race conditions – the better.
Value Is EverythingI saw two races today: The first one was basically the first circuit and I would call it “Thistlecrack with horses around him”. The second race today was the entire 2nd circuit, with no one around him. Just like a private racecourse gallop. Although he jumped better on the 2nd circuit, he won’t ever get this kind of luxury in a G1 Chase in Britain. The time was still extremely slow (36 seconds in fact) and his first two chase performances are not even within a stone of that what Coneygree achieved in the Berkshire (his first chase) and then in the Feltham. He had a proper opponent rated 165 over hurdles in Saphir Du Rheu who could match strides with him, but landed twice on the floor during the middle part of those races.
By contrast, Marinero is rated 35 lbs lower than Thistlecrack and somehow he still managed to put quite some pressure on him on the first circuit. Just imagine more horses in the race, a much faster pace and also more horses to take him on. We all know what outcome might have been.
If he doesn’t show dramatic improvement in the Worcester in two weeks time, then the KG might come a bit too fast and he might bypass it.
As far as the GC goes, it might be still realistic, but he’d need 2-3 more PROPER races over fences and also to improve his jumping. I’m not counting him out, but maybe he is not a chaser after all or he might not learn that fast at the age of almost 9.
Right now, I’m tempted to have some of the 5/1 for the World Hurdle. If he fails in just one chase, there will be no “back to the drawing board”. Thistlecrack will surely revert to hurdles and be an odds-on shot for the World Hurdle.Was really concerned for the horses safety during todays race. Was peeking behind the hands covering my face at each fence after the first ditch. Could have easily done back damage and I was expecting him to be pulled up after. Guessy and novicey at the water the first or second time (cant remember). After the second ditch if i was riding I would have pulled him up – thats how concerned i was (guess thats why im not a jock).
Bit confused about the interview after with the jock – seemed to make light of it. Pro’s – class is obvious and looks like a chaser. Seems to jump the regulation fences well but the jump at the last was also a concern. Fair play to the connections – right age to do it and if they dont try they dont know. Targeting this race instead of the World Hurdle is what I would have “tried”. Con’s – jumping. With horses around and possibly ahead how will that jumping hold up. Ditches/water/3rd last and last 2 – I have a real concern. Safety could be put at risk by sticking some front runners in and around with a horse that hasnt been racing pace jumping for very long. I like Tom but hope both him and the connections and the trainer know what they are doing.
After all that hes probably nailed on for the GC but taking off that far off those fences -best of luck with that. Hope the horse survives this attempt at it – thats all.
Was really concerned for the horses safety during todays race. Was peeking behind the hands covering my face at each fence after the first ditch. Could have easily done back damage and I was expecting him to be pulled up after. Guessy and novicey at the water the first or second time (cant remember). After the second ditch if i was riding I would have pulled him up – thats how concerned i was (guess thats why im not a jock).
I was quite sure he’d pull him up… But I’m also NOT a jockey.
Wasnt concerned about the time considering Tom had hold of him at ditches and 3rd last and last – the concern to me is that he had to
I think you are all worrying about nothing.
Thistlecrack will struggle to follow a lead at pulling up pace, he was dragged down to the level of the opposition, no wonder he lost focus was probably dropping off to sleep. He needs to run and get into a rhythm, not messing about start, stop, start, stop. Any jumping of anything needs a bit of forward momentum, the better the race and pace will see the best of Thistlecrack.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Still got a lot to prove for me…
If we’re comparing with Coneygree…on his 2nd start he won the grade 1 Feltham by 40 lengths from 2 horses rated 135 & 147 who had both won their previous races…Coneygree put in an excellent round of jumping too and was only a second or two slower on the clock than the King George later on the card….he could easily have bounced that day too as it was just 28 days after him coming back from 671 days off!
He was also 40/1 for the Gold Cup right up to the last bookie going NRNB! I know the two can’t really be compared odds wise as one was a real late decision and the other is being talked of as though he’s already past the post….still….interesting how some bookies today reacted by shortening Thistlecrack!
Suppose this time next week we could be a little clearer on a few things!
Still got a lot to prove for me…
If we’re comparing with Coneygree…on his 2nd start he won the grade 1 Feltham by 40 lengths from 2 horses rated 135 & 147 who had both won their previous races…Coneygree put in an excellent round of jumping too and was only a second or two slower on the clock than the King George later on the card….he could easily have bounced that day too as it was just 28 days after him coming back from 671 days off!
He was also 40/1 for the Gold Cup right up to the last bookie going NRNB! I know the two can’t really be compared odds wise as one was a real late decision and the other is being talked of as though he’s already past the post….still….interesting how some bookies today reacted by shortening Thistlecrack!
Suppose this time next week we could be a little clearer on a few things!
Agree and if it wasn’t for Coneygree I don’t think they would be thinking about the gold cup. Although as the opposition is potentially so dire you can understand why they are tempted.
I think they should forget about going for the championship races now and just stick to the novice route. Otherwise the horse could get seriously injured or even killed. Then again it’s a gelding, it’s go no stud value unlike a top class horse from the flat so they can pretty much do what they like with it.
Looking on the bright side, watching the performance of More of that today I thought it was a fairly mediocre display of jumping, he just tries to hurdle his fences and doesn’t look a natural. Thistlecrack by contrast does, he’s got much more scope for a fence, he can be breathtaking at times but as he lacks experience I think the sensible thing would be to keep him to the novice route and aim him at something like the JLT.
I’ve watched it twice more and I think some perspective is needed here. He was upsides, or in second, for most of the fences on circuit one and made one error. He seemed a bit caught out by the water on both circuits – almost as though he was expecting a regulation fence or some kind of drop, but you couldn’t count them as mistakes of any kind.
On circuit two, allowed his head coming away from the stands he was imperious. His jump at the ditch he misread on circuit one was stunning. TS was, I believe, thinking of trying to organize him at the 2nd last but wisely left him alone and he put in a clever jump. TS let him run down the last to take off on the right stride.
I suspect, Titus, he was on that right lead for so long because TS steered him wide throughout, exceptionally wide for no apparent reason, almost as though he believed there was a special strip of ground away from the others.
While that error at the first ditch was a breath-holder, and, understandably most are concentrating on it, he was absolutely fine everywhere else. His huge jump at the second ditch saw him just brushing the top with his heels, but it was a leap Sprinter Sacre would have been proud of.
While I’d love to have seen a flawless round, he must be given huge credit for what he did after that mistake. He landed on the fence – literally. He met it coming down at his stifle meaning his back legs were pretty much at ground level and had to be dragged through the fence. Such a blunder would have seen many pulled up for fear of back injury or confidence damage, but not this fella. It did not affect his confidence one jot as he jumped the next perfectly then attempted the same trick again at the next ditch. His engine must be out of this world.
When Marinero came to him at the bottom of the hill and he sensed it he just stretched away in magnificent fashion, gobbling up the ground as he pulled clear. He really is a wonderful racehorse. I suspect we’ll see a tour de force at Newbury with Thistlecrack putting everything to the sword in Coneygree fashion. Can’t wait to see him again.
There is not much point in comparing Thistlecrack with Coneygree as there are very few similarities. Rated about the same as novice hurdlers, Coneygree spent much of his first “year off” being schooled by, amongst others, Alfie Bradstock, the trainer’s son who is also a professional show jumper.
When Coneygree came back in the Berkshire Novices chase, he had already been withdrawn by an idiot vet from a race at Plumpton. If Thistlecrack were mine, I’d be interested to run him the Berkshire for two reasons. First it is over 2m4f, so he might get a stronger pace through the race. Secondly, the pedigree of the race is vastly superior to other races this side of Christmas, having been won by the likes of Remittance Man, Denman, Bob’s Worth (beating Cue Card) and, of course, Coneygree. Then take things from there.
If Coneygree’s journey to the Gold Cup helps connections decide where to go with Thistlecrack, it should be remembered that if the Bradstocks had started spouting about Coneygree being a Gold Cup horse at that stage they would have been locked up. It was only after the Feltham chase, including a look at the race times, that the Bradstocks decided to run Coneygree in a Gold Cup trial – just to see. Even after that, he would probably have run in the RSA had the ground been soft.
I cannot help feeling that the likeable Colin Tizzard might have been better advised to keep his cards closer to his chest. Every year, good staying novices are entered for the Gold Cup “just in case” the race cuts up or a novice puts up a jaw-dropping performance in February. Novices actually have quite a good record in the Gold Cup considering how few have run. (AP maintains to this day that Gloria Victis went wrong before he jumped the second last).
As for today’s performance, Thistlecrack did win as he pleased even with his howlers at the ditches; thank goodness Scu didn’t fall off; a top notch performance next time out having learnt and it’s game on. Can’t wait.
Just looks a very inexperienced horse over fences but one with plenty of scope. Thankfully connections didn’t follow the advice of one or two on here and run him in the Betfair or some other similar race on only his second outing, he would have probably ended up on the floor.
Races like yesterdays are just what he wants at the moment to build up his experience and confidence but can’t help thinking they are rushing him, especially if he runs at Newbury. It can’t be right to run a prospective Gold Cup horse 3 times in 4 weeks as a novice in my book.
Think they’d be better off taking their time a bit more and going the novice route till after Christmas and see where they stand after the Feltham.
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