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it’s right to say any of the six behind him in the Gold Cup betting would’ve won equally as easily
Including Don Poli, if the race was 6 miles on heavy going run at a end to end gallop
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:) :) :) Good one that Nathan.
it’s right to say any of the six behind him in the Gold Cup betting would’ve won equally as easily
Including Don Poli, if the race was 6 miles on heavy going run at a end to end gallop
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Good one that Nathan.And an uphill all the way stiff course
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Were it not Thistlecrack, one would hardly be talking about the Gold Cup.
His exploits as a hurdler have already demonstrated that he has the engine to be a Gold Cup winner
A bit of a contradiction there SSK
Can anybody name me a World Hurdle winner that has won the Gold Cup? Thought not. Every year or two a grand staying hurdler is touted as the next Pegasus over fences. Sure, they have the engine, but do they have the slick, fast, accurate jumping of fences usually required of a Gold Cup winner? As far as Thistlecrack’s debut is concerned, the answer has to be: “not on what we have seen so far”. That may all change if Thistlecrack thrashes some decent opposition in one of the Grade 2 Novices’ Chases at the end of the month.
he was a bit guessy at times
You must of been watching a different race to me, SSK.
I must have watched thousands of Novices’ Chases like that. Just because Thistlecrack guessed right doesn’t mean he didn’t guess. He did and no shame in that: he is a novice after all.
he was a bit guessy at times
You must of been watching a different race to me, SSK.
I must have watched thousands of Novices’ Chases like that. Just because Thistlecrack guessed right doesn’t mean he didn’t guess. He did and no shame in that: he is a novice after all.
Thistlecrack shortened up when he needed to and went long when he needed to. No guessing involved.
Value Is EverythingWere it not Thistlecrack, one would hardly be talking about the Gold Cup.
His exploits as a hurdler have already demonstrated that he has the engine to be a Gold Cup winner
A bit of a contradiction there SSK
Can anybody name me a World Hurdle winner that has won the Gold Cup? Thought not. Every year or two a grand staying hurdler is touted as the next Pegasus over fences. Sure, they have the engine, but do they have the slick, fast, accurate jumping of fences usually required of a Gold Cup winner? As far as Thistlecrack’s debut is concerned, the answer has to be: “not on what we have seen so far”. That may all change if Thistlecrack thrashes some decent opposition in one of the Grade 2 Novices’ Chases at the end of the month.
How many Stayers Hurdles winners go on to race over fences SSK?
And
How many Stayers Hurdles winners have gone over fences and then made such an impressive round of jumping on their steeplechasing debut?Value Is EverythingWasn’t at all guessy, SSK. Guessy horses usually lack confidence and race nervily, especially approaching a fence. Four out he put in a short one in the style of a very experienced horse. Three out he came up long and that can be a novicey jump or sometimes it’s exuberance – the likes of Sprinter Sacre would still be doing that occasionally. Key factor was that he sailed over which says so much about his energy levels at that late stage.
He certainly needs some jumping upsides experienced top notchers, just to hone his concentration, but his technique looks close to flawless.
Were it not Thistlecrack, one would hardly be talking about the Gold Cup.
His exploits as a hurdler have already demonstrated that he has the engine to be a Gold Cup winner
A bit of a contradiction there SSK
Can anybody name me a World Hurdle winner that has won the Gold Cup? Thought not. Every year or two a grand staying hurdler is touted as the next Pegasus over fences. Sure, they have the engine, but do they have the slick, fast, accurate jumping of fences usually required of a Gold Cup winner? As far as Thistlecrack’s debut is concerned, the answer has to be: “not on what we have seen so far”. That may all change if Thistlecrack thrashes some decent opposition in one of the Grade 2 Novices’ Chases at the end of the month.
How many Stayers Hurdles winners go on to race over fences SSK?
And
How many Stayers Hurdles winners have gone over fences and then made such an impressive round of jumping on their steeplechasing debut?Since 1989 there have been 21 horses that have won the stayers hurdle. Of those, Rustle, Kings Curate, Balasani, Doran’s Pride, Cyborgo, Karshi, Princeful, Bacchanal, Iris’s Gift, My Way de Solzen, More of That and Thistlecrack have gone on to race over fences (57%).
As to your second question, I don’t recall the word “impressive” being used of any of them apart from bookies and possessors of ante-post betting slips, Thistlecrack included.
So … ok, ok: Thistlecrack jumped well, very well for a novice, even if he spent a little too much time in the air at a couple.
For what it’s worth the Racing Post said of Thistlecracks’s race: “Made all, raced enthusiastically and jumped well, quickened pace after 13th, steadied and joined briefly between last 2, soon came clear, easily.”
Compare that to other future Gold Cup winners’ first attempt at fences. “Chased leaders, 4th halfway, closer in 3rd before 10th where slight mistake, left 2nd next, closed on outer to dispute 2 out and led last, soon clear, stayed on well, easily. [Don Cossack, fell RSA)
Or “Made all and jumped well, ridden before last, kept on well and always holding rival flat, ridden out” (Coneygree, Won Gold Cup).
“Tracked leader, went left 12th, challenging when bumped and mistake 4 out, given time to recover and 4 lengths down after 2 out, rallied and 2 lengths down last, driven and stayed on gamely run-in, led last stride (Bobs Worth beating Cue Card, Won RSA)
“Held up in mid-division, headway 8th, tracked leaders 11th, led approaching 3 out, clear from next, easily” (Kauto Star, did not run at Cheltenham that year)
“Prominent, led 3rd, mistake and headed 4 out, led 3 out, hung left approaching last, ridden out” (Denman, Won RSA)
“Mid-division, closer in 5th from 8th, ridden in moderate 4th from 5 out, closer order approaching straight, close 2nd 2 out, challenged and disputed lead last, stayed on well to edge ahead last strides” (Kicking King, 2nd Arkle)
“Mid-division, closer in 5th from 8th, ridden in moderate 4th from 5 out, closer order approaching straight, close 2nd 2 out, challenged and disputed lead last, stayed on well to edge ahead last strides” (War of Attrition, 7th Arkle)
“Jumped well, held up in touch and always travelling well, headway, switched right and challenged 2 out, soon led, clear last, easily” (Best Mate, did not run at Cheltenham that year).
Even with the sad death of Vautour, concerns about other principals’ soundness of wind and limb, age, going etc. etc. does that make Thistlecrack a 4/1 shot? Really?
Whenever Tizzard spoke at the back end of last season about the Gold Cup for this year, I had the impression that he had a few regrets that he hadn’t gone novices’ chasing instead. What price might he be now if he’d dished out a 20 length thrashing to Blaklion in the RSA?
As it is, all the horse has been in his first race is no better (or worse) than he should be: a talented novice beating inferior rivals easily. All I am questioning is the value. To quote Donald Rumsfeld, “There are known knowns and known unknowns; there are unknown knowns and unknown unknowns.”
You could also add Big Buck’s into the list that didn’t cut it over fences. Because he was dominant in the World Hurdle and top class at that you could also point to horses that filled the places through his dominance, as they were excellent staying hurdlers too…
As regards the Gold Cup and top staying chases…how far off were Punchestowns, Time For Rupert, Grands Crus, Smad Place, More Of That, Reve De Sivola…to name a few…
All top drawer at staying over hurdles but miles away from winning a gold cup! Some of those started well, some not so…but still fall woefully short of what it takes to win a gold cup.
I still wouldn’t back Thistlecrack for it if he was double his current odds…long way to go yet and still a hell of a lot to prove IMO!
You could add Big Buck’s although he became a superstar hurdler after his chase career. He never jumped another fence in public after unseating in the 2008 Hennessy.
More Of That still has potential. 3rd in the RSA despite bursting blood vessels isn’t a bad run.
I wouldn’t compare him with any winners of the Stayers Hurdle in trying to assess his fencing potential. All the hurdlers mentioned, all the champions, have, at some point been off the bridle and involved in battles. So far, bar his seasonal debut against Deputy Dan, Thistlecrack might as well have been on exercise gallops.
He is so straightforward and professional that it’s hard to quantify what he’s been doing. Imagine this impossible scenario: If we could watch each of his G1 wins last year and digitally delete all other runners and watch him go round on his own you would see a horse that seems to be utterly unaware he is in a race: there seems to be no concept to him of rivals. He just goes out and gallops. When his jockey asks him to go faster, he does so with no fuss whatever, no revving up, no flat spot, no ears back as he eyeballs other horses and sets his head down to do battle. The horse doesn’t race. He just runs.
As to his chasing debut, some seemed to see it as, ‘Oh, well, we know he can jump, then.’ I’ve been watching steeplechasers for fifty years and have seen every possible technique from the flying hurdle/chasing of Tingle Creek to the economical accuracy of Best Mate. Memory doesn’t serve me as well as I’d want it to these days, but I cannot recall a more impressive fencing debut than Thistlecrack’s. It would have been counted an accomplished round of jumping for any chaser. There are handicap steeplechasers who have jumped a thousand fences who still cannot jump as consistently well as Thistlecrack did at Chepstow.
My sole concern is his recent lack of competition, of not having to race anything and of not having to jump upsides a top class seasoned campaigner. I hope he runs on Saturday and I hope he faces a decent sized field where he can get in among them and get some idea of what it’s like to jump in a group at a decent pace.
Until there is evidence otherwise, I can see no weaknesses in him. One of his greatest assets, imo, is frequently overlooked: he is quirk-free. Not something you can say about many of the very best. Roll on Saturday.
You could also add Big Buck’s into the list that didn’t cut it over fences. Because he was dominant in the World Hurdle and top class at that you could also point to horses that filled the places through his dominance, as they were excellent staying hurdlers too…
As regards the Gold Cup and top staying chases…how far off were Punchestowns, Time For Rupert, Grands Crus, Smad Place, More Of That, Reve De Sivola…to name a few…
All top drawer at staying over hurdles but miles away from winning a gold cup! Some of those started well, some not so…but still fall woefully short of what it takes to win a gold cup.
I still wouldn’t back Thistlecrack for it if he was double his current odds…long way to go yet and still a hell of a lot to prove IMO!
Level of ability, soundness and jumping are obviously essential attributes in steeplechasing, Zammer.
Big Buck’s couldn’t jump fences anywhere near as well as hurdles and was returned to the smaller obstacles to be a Champion Staying hurdler.
Time For Rupert was around 10 lbs inferior to Thistlecrack over hurdles and so needed to improve over fences. That said; made an excellent start to his chasing career, jumping well in his first two starts and looked on his way to the top. Second of which (in December) a performance good enough to win an average RSA. Up until then impressing with his attitude. Sadly it subsequently all went wrong, three months went by before disappointing badly in the RSA. Probably had problems in the interim and reported afterwards to have bled and scoped badly. Resperatory difficulties meant he was never the same afterwards.
Grands Crus similarly 10+ lbs behind Thistlecrack as a hurdler, three impressive novice chases to start, beating Silviniaco Conti in the Feltham. Again not seen for almost three months, scoped badly after disappointing in RSA and never tha same after wind problems. Not wanting to go through with his effort and finding nothing off the bridle. When horses are hurting they won’t put it all in.
Smad Place was below Stayers Hurdle winning class and is an equally good chaser as he was over hurdles. Can’t see how he could be thought of as at all disappointing.
Reve De Sivola, are you kidding? Not up to winning a Stayers Hurdle, not a good jumper of hurdles and failed over fences. We’re trying to establish the good jumping Thistlecrack’s Gold Cup Chance.
Punchestowns was good enough to win an average Stayers Hurdle – beaten by Big Buck’s. Jumped well on chasing debut. Then made one bad mistake second time (February) – still impressive, putting up a Timeform rating better than last season’s RSA winner Blaklion did at Cheltenham. Met with a setback the week before Cheltenham and finished lame in RSA. Not seen for over 9 months and was never the same afterwards.
More Of That was a top class hurdler though not quite Thistlecrack standard. Always had physical problems. One run in the 2012/13 season in December, unbeaten in four his one whole season culminating in an impressive Stayers Hurdle 13/14 season. Then strangely tongue tied only 14/15 start, disappointing third at Newbury, racing asthough amiss. Missed a whole year afterwards before a chase debut. Jumped economically (nowhere like as impressive as Thistlecrack) in two Cheltenham novice chases. Guess what happened next? Went missing for three months before returning with blood flowing from nostrils in RSA. Some horses do not come back after health problems, some do and it’s possible More Of That could yet make the grade over fences.
So before the season was even half way through Time For Rupert and Grands Crus had put up performances good enough to win an average RSA… before healh problems got in the way.
Before the season was even half way through More Of That put up a performance good enough to be officially rated equal to the rating given to last season’s RSA winner Blaklion (Punchestowns also doing so in Feb)… before for both horses health problems got in the way…
Thistlecrack is quite a bit better hurdler than those four and (what’s more) looks a natural chaser. Hopefully Thistlecrack remains sound and if doing so I expect him to be better than an RSA winner.
Thistlecrack does not need to be a probable winner of the Gold Cup to be value at the now best odds 4/1. All he needs is a better than 20% chance to be worth a bet at that price… Or better than 15% at 11/2 when I originally said.
Value Is EverythingWhat do we imagine his plan might be? Saturday at Cheltenham, Boxing Day at Kempton (King George?), Argento / Denman Chase, Gold Cup? Clearly I’m missing something here, because that is at least a 10/1 shot to win the big one at this stage.
I’d love to see Thistlecrack step up to the plate, but if you watch every three mile novices chase this season you will see at least a dozen beat inferior opposition easily and jump well.
We have yet to arrive at the “Act of God needed to beat Vicario di Bray” pitch of hysteria, but I fear some may be teetering on the brink.
What do we imagine his plan might be? Saturday at Cheltenham, Boxing Day at Kempton (King George?), Argento / Denman Chase, Gold Cup? Clearly I’m missing something here, because that is at least a 10/1 shot to win the big one at this stage.
I’d love to see Thistlecrack step up to the plate, but if you watch every three mile novices chase this season you will see at least a dozen beat inferior opposition easily and jump well.
We have yet to arrive at the “Act of God needed to beat Vicario di Bray” pitch of hysteria, but I fear some may be teetering on the brink.
The things you’re “missing” are the importance of how well Thistlecrack jumped and fragility of rivals.
It’s not the same as a “dozen” ordinary hurdler jumping as well in 3m novice chases (although none have jumped as well). Because we know the horse has a massive amount of raw ability from his hurdles form. Therefore, what we wanted to know from chasing debut was does he jump? Not only can he jump, but he can both shorten up and lengthen with alacrity. A lot of the time inexperienced novices can do one but not the other. Thistlecrack looks a natural chaser, therefore can be expected to do at least equally as well over fences as hurdles.
Thistlecrack would only need to be placed in an average King George for natural progression of a Novice and added stamina test of Cheltenham to maintain or even shorten from 4/1.
Not only is the price about how good Thistlecrack could be, is also about the unsoundness of his nearest betting rivals, Coneygree and Don Cossack and age of fourth favourite Cue Card. What price will he be if one, two or all three don’t make it to Cheltenham?
I’ll have 112 points @ 10/1 please, SSK.
P.S.
What does Vicario Di Bray have to do with it?
Value Is EverythingSSK, you’re not alone in your view: there are a few pros on twitter who have similar reservations. Much depends on your assessment of the horse’s engine.
To offer a human analogy, if the next Olympics were in March and Usain Bolt had not jumped a hurdle what price would he be for the 100m hurdles gold?
And if he had run one 100m race and jumped the hurdles with the human equivalent of the fluency of Thistlecrack at Chepstow, what price would he then be for Gold?
It all depends if you believe the Tizzard horse has an equine Bolt engine – I do.
Let’s watch this from a different angle: It’s 80% sure right now that he WON’T win the GC. I guess this might sound a bot more realistic than him being 1st Fav for the race.
What do we imagine his plan might be? Saturday at Cheltenham, Boxing Day at Kempton (King George?), Argento / Denman Chase, Gold Cup? Clearly I’m missing something here, because that is at least a 10/1 shot to win the big one at this stage.
I’d love to see Thistlecrack step up to the plate, but if you watch every three mile novices chase this season you will see at least a dozen beat inferior opposition easily and jump well.
We have yet to arrive at the “Act of God needed to beat Vicario di Bray” pitch of hysteria, but I fear some may be teetering on the brink.
The things you’re “missing” are the importance of how well Thistlecrack jumped and fragility of rivals.
It’s not the same as a “dozen” ordinary hurdler jumping as well in 3m novice chases (although none have jumped as well). Because we know the horse has a massive amount of raw ability from his hurdles form. Therefore, what we wanted to know from chasing debut was does he jump? Not only can he jump, but he can both shorten up and lengthen with alacrity. A lot of the time inexperienced novices can do one but not the other. Thistlecrack looks a natural chaser, therefore can be expected to do at least equally as well over fences as hurdles.
Thistlecrack would only need to be placed in an average King George for natural progression of a Novice and added stamina test of Cheltenham to maintain or even shorten from 4/1.
Not only is the price about how good Thistlecrack could be, is also about the unsoundness of his nearest betting rivals, Coneygree and Don Cossack and age of fourth favourite Cue Card. What price will he be if one, two or all three don’t make it to Cheltenham?
I’ll have 112 points @ 10/1 please, SSK.
P.S.
What does Vicario Di Bray have to do with it?Thank you for the kind offer, which I regret that on this occasion I must decline as I am laying the hind quarters off Thistlecrack at 7/2 on Betfair.
Vicario di Bray won a Champion Hurdle trial at Haydock, beating half the leading fancies for that race. His next outing was the Tote Gold Trophy (“The Schweppes”) for which he was considered something of a blot on the handicap and started 4/7 favourite carrying 10-9. That morning the Racing Post carried the front page headline “Act of God needed to stop Vicario di Bray.” He was beaten three lengths.
Or put it another way, “value is everything”.
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