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With stable companion Cue Card disappointing today, Thistlecrack’s chance has increased imo.
What do you expect from an 10-year old staying chaser first time out? I think he ran okay, before running out of gas against useful, but rather mediocre yardsticks.
But one thing’s for sure: Thistlecrack’s connections will be thinking even more Gold Cup now.So you’ve argued his post but agreed with his point
@ MarkTT: I think his chances to take part in the race have increased. But, first let him run in two more competitive novice chases and then we’ll know a bit better where he really stands.
With stable companion Cue Card disappointing today, Thistlecrack’s chance has increased imo.
Cue Card hasn’t won on ground faster than Good To Soft since his novice chasing days. On that basis he put in a pretty decent effort yesterday, particularly off a lay-off.
Rob
Very fair point, Rob. I’d forgotten about his record with cut. He’s such a good mover you expect him to act on good.
With stable companion Cue Card disappointing today, Thistlecrack’s chance has increased imo.
What do you expect from an 10-year old staying chaser first time out? I think he ran okay, before running out of gas against useful, but rather mediocre yardsticks.
But one thing’s for sure: Thistlecrack’s connections will be thinking even more Gold Cup now.Exactly my point Ruby.
Massive part of ante-post betting is getting a starter – on the day. Vautour is imo the most talented chaser around, but I rate him a poor value bet for the Gold Cup mainly because of being doubtful he’ll run. If Cue Card was to turn up at 2/1 or even 3/1 on the day – connections might decide to go Stayers Hurdle or RSA instead. That’s far less likely to happen now. ie Yes, “Thistlecrack’s connections will be thinking even more Gold Cup now”. After Cue Card’s Wetherby performance Thistlecrack is more likely to turn up in the Gold Cup and therefore his “chance has increased imo”. Am glad we agree Ruby.
Value Is EverythingWith stable companion Cue Card disappointing today, Thistlecrack’s chance has increased imo.
Cue Card hasn’t won on ground faster than Good To Soft since his novice chasing days. On that basis he put in a pretty decent effort yesterday, particularly off a lay-off.
Rob
I could not disagree with you more Rob. Have you looked at those Good ground performances?
As is often the case, winning statistics imo mean absolutely nothing here. Indeed, they give a misleading slant on going preferences for Cue Card.
When assessing form and liklihood of running to form – what matters is form shown, not whether he won or not. In National Hunt racing horses do not run very often on “GOOD” going, with racecourse clerks targeting good-soft.
However, let’s look at Cue Card’s last four starts on officially Good going:
It was GOOD ground in last season’s Gold Cup, a race where Cue Card looked to be travelling well and in all probability would’ve shown his form but for falling. Looked to have a great chance of winning the Blue Riband on GOOD going at the time he came down. Was the going too firm for him that day?
Next Good ground run back in April 2015. Distant 26 lengths second to Don Cossack at Aintree in the Melling – at a time when clearly not at his best, shortly before the trapped epiwotsit operation that reinvigourated Cue Card.
Next run on officially GOOD ground was the 2014 Melling. An excellent 4 1/2 lengths second to Sprinter Sacre, with a full 19 lengths back to the third. ie Without the best NH horse since Arkle, Cue Card would’ve won the Melling by 19 lengths…
And before that run the next GOOD going run was as a novice. Producing one of THE best novice runs we’ll see by any horse, let alone Cue Card – in the 2012 Arkle. Second – putting up a performance rated 175 by Timeform – when 7 lengths behind Sprinter Sacre, 22 lengths in front of the third.
I regard Cue Card equally effective from on antything between good and heavy. Going can not be used as an excuse for Saturday.
Prominent position (other two ridden pominently Dynaste and Virak well beaten) might not have helped but even so… On “form” – even by giving weight to some – Cue Card should’ve had loads in hand at Wetherby. Fitness highly unlikely to have been an issue, with stable going really well and bullish about how the horse was working. Cue Card has questions to answer and – at the moment – imo probable age is catching up with this wonderful racehorse.
Value Is EverythingPossibly GT. But the breathing problem could be back also. These ops don’t cure forever. I guess we won’t know until at least another run and then we still may be guessing
Possibly GT. But the breathing problem could be back also. These ops don’t cure forever. I guess we won’t know until at least another run and then we still may be guessing
Although possible Homer, imo unlikely given how he’d been defeated.
Having 40/1 about him doing the Betfair/King George double in 2013, I remember that Boxing Day as if it were yesterday. Cue Card went from travelling smoothly to beaten within a couple of strides two out. Contrast that both to 2015 (Vs Vautour) and to Saturday. If it were a reccurrence of the old problem, personally I wouldn’t have expected him to find as much off the bridle, fighting back once passed.
Value Is EverythingWith stable companion Cue Card disappointing today, Thistlecrack’s chance has increased imo.
What do you expect from an 10-year old staying chaser first time out? I think he ran okay, before running out of gas against useful, but rather mediocre yardsticks.
But one thing’s for sure: Thistlecrack’s connections will be thinking even more Gold Cup now.Exactly my point Ruby.
Massive part of ante-post betting is getting a starter – on the day. Vautour is imo the most talented chaser around, but I rate him a poor value bet for the Gold Cup mainly because of being doubtful he’ll run. If Cue Card was to turn up at 2/1 or even 3/1 on the day – connections might decide to go Stayers Hurdle or RSA instead. That’s far less likely to happen now. ie Yes, “Thistlecrack’s connections will be thinking even more Gold Cup now”. After Cue Card’s Wetherby performance Thistlecrack is more likely to turn up in the Gold Cup and therefore his “chance has increased imo”. Am glad we agree Ruby.What happens with Cue Card is irrelevant to what happens with Thistlecrack, they certainly wont be running him in the Stayers Hurdle just to avoid Cue Card in the Gold Cup. They’ve said as much, different owners and a different jockey and the Tizzards wont run him in the wrong race just to avoid Cue Card.
As for last Saturdays race affecting his chances, miniscule, hardly worth a mention. Have Thistlecracks odds altered much since?
As for last Saturdays race affecting his chances, miniscule, hardly worth a mention. Have Thistlecracks odds altered much since?
Depends what you call “miniscule”, Yeats. In my estimation it changed Thistlecrack’s chances from a fair 18% (9/2) to 20% (4/1) – as my DLAP thread illustrates:
My estimate of Thistlecrack’s chance 20%
20 – 15.4 (11/2 = 15.4%) = 4.6
4.6 X 7 = 32.2
32.2 + (my idea of its chance) 20 = 52.2Therefore my total stake on Thistlecrack was 52 points @ 11/2.
Thistlecrack was available @ 11/2 when I posted about his chance being increased. 11/2 about something I believe is a fair 4/1 is a pretty good bet. (Not absolutely outstanding, but good). Yes, the odds have altered/shortened since, currently best price available only 9/2. So – allowing for a margin for error – for me is now unbackable.
Value Is EverythingI thought Thistlecrack’s debut fine as far as it went. Were it not Thistlecrack, one would hardly be talking about the Gold Cup. He did not beat much; the race was run in a slow time; he was a bit guessy at times; he shortened up nicely at one or two.
If he runs in either the Berkshire or Worcester Novices chases at the Hennessy meeting, he may get some decent opposition and show if he has learned from it.
His exploits as a hurdler have already demonstrated that he has the engine to be a Gold Cup winner; the question is rather: ‘can he jump like a Gold Cup winner?’ On that one the jury must still be out.
He is now a best priced 9/2 for the Gold Cup. That’s bonkers.
he was a bit guessy at times
You must of been watching a different race to me, SSK.
Value Is EverythingWere it not Thistlecrack, one would hardly be talking about the Gold Cup.
His exploits as a hurdler have already demonstrated that he has the engine to be a Gold Cup winner
A bit of a contradiction there SSK
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