Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

[robnorth]

The Irish Flat season opens on Sunday and I’m really surprised that only 2 GB based trainers have had a go at the Irish Lincolnshire. The race looks low on quality and ripe for the taking for a half decent mile handicapper from this side of the Irish Sea. As it is Tony Coyle/Kaine Wood trained Thuunder Roar looks well weighted assuming the bumble round in rear at Southwell has set him right.

SUNDAY MARCH 16

Curragh
3.45 Smooth Tom 119; Soaring Monarch 115; Thunder Roar 113; Monastorboice 111; Fort Vega 111; Titanium 108; Orandi 108

Chepstow
3.37 Dromlac Jury 136; Greyval 133; Current Mood 129; Shantwopointfive 128

[robnorth]

TUESDAY MARCH !8

Wetherby
3.35 Lunar Discovery 142; Felicie Du Maquis 140; De Tellers Fortune 139

Exeter
3.17 Stoner’s Choice 145; Annsam 143; Le Ligerien 131

[robnorth]

WEDNESDAY MARCH 19

Haydock
2.20 Hermino AA 150; Yealand 137; Galunggung 135
4.25 Regarde 147; Rockinastorm 130; Saint Xavier 128

Southwell
6.30 Cracking Gold 97; Bajan Bandit 96; Longhaired General 95; Shimmering Spin 95

[robnorth]

A btwixt and between time at the moment after Cheltenham and just few odds and ends races to rate. That changes on Friday as the Go North Weekend starts with Musselburgh, Kelso and Carlisle on consecutive days. Could do with some rain though as all three are currently watering.

THURSDAY MARCH 20

Newcastle
2.00 Bergerac 119; Fahrenheit Seven 115; Prince Of Pillo 112; Ventura Express 111

[robnorth]

FRIDAY MARCH 21

Newbury
2.30 Genois 140; Tedley 138; Leave Of Absence 137
3.00 Montecam 143; He’s A Latchico 141; Manuelito 138; Glory And Fortune 134
3.30 Go To War 147; Zain Nights 144; Gold In The Rivers 144

Ffos Las
3.40 Top Of The Bill 152; Classic Concorde 145; Rouge De L’Ouest 142; Take Your Time 137

Musselburgh
3.50 She’s Notjoeking 136; All The Glory 134; Rockola Vogue 132; Theirshegoes 131
4.25 Giveupyerauldsins 130; Anamnada 126; Punxsatawney Phil 124; Kajaki 124; Top Man Tom 121
5.00 Cuban Cigar 133; No No Fizz 130; Restandbethankful 122; Heart Above 120

Southwell
7.00 Silver Samurai 103; Blue Prince 102; Ormolulu 99

[robnorth]

SATURDAY MARCH 22

Kelso
1.15 Cadell 162; Your Own Story 162; Pull Again Green 158
1.50 Sacre Coeur 161; Wyenot 149; Ottizzini 149
2.25 Starlyte 142; Salsada 136; Sayva 132; Foster’s Fortune 131; Galahad Threepwood 131
3.00 Leloopa 133; Tour Ovalie 130; Rula Bula 129; Sunset Hill 127

Bangor
1.35 Homme Public 152; Gentleman Bill 150; Milldam 149; Willaston 147
4.02 High Game Royal 131; Thankyouluckystar 130; Solar System 129; Land Genie 124; Holokea 124

Newbury
2.40 Black Gerry 162; Theatre Man 160; Imagine 151; Numitor 151; Riskintheground 151
5.00 Jetronic 139; Ballybreeze 137; Beau Balko 136
5.35 Golden Son 149; Neon Moon 147; Smarty Wild 141

[robnorth]

A very pleasing day at Kelso with three top rated winners though I only backed Starlyte at 14/1. Leloopa landed the Herring Queen Final at 22/1 but I went for the second Tour Ovalie. Sometimes you have to appreciate that the word ‘Value’ is written large in neon lights!

As a sdie issue I’d calculated ratings for the 3.35 and had Gold Des Bois as a decent looknig selection. Luckily I had a look at him in the paddock pre-race, his coat looked very dull so I gave him a miss. Good move as he was well beaten. It doesn’t happen very often but occasionally you see a horse where stable staff have brushed a the coat to make it shine and it hasn’t worked. This is the time to beware.

On to the third day of the Go North Finals.

SUNDAY MARCH 23

Carlisle
2.45 Tommy Combats 134; Carcaci Castle 133; Glory And Honour 129; Treaty Boy 126
3.20 Emotional Roller 126; East Street 125; One More Strike 124; Catch Catchfire 123; Ribeye 123; Uptown Harry 123
3.55 High Moon 141; O’Connell 140; Half Shot 135; Indian Louis 135
4.30 Does He Know 156; Credo 152; Dubai Days 146

Exeter
4.13 Concetto 134; Planned Paradise 130; Neo King 129

[robnorth]

A two day pause before the class level rises high enough to interest this thread. After the weekend, and since the filtering criteria was adjusted at the start of September last year the top rated results are 109 winners from 706 runenrs returning 705.99. Top rated has lost 1p over best part of 7 months. Filtering out those over 10/1 gives a 7% profit on turnover and plenty of scope for those beating SP.

The filter criteria of only rating those placed in the first 4 in one of their last two runs is on the face of it a blunt instrument, but one that has significantly improved returns.

WEDNESDAY MARCH 26

Market Rasen
3.15 Ryan’s Rocket 146; Ostend 138; Issar D’Airy 135

Kempton
7.00 Popmaster 118; Local Hero 114; King’s Lynn 113; Heathcliff 111

[robnorth]

THURSDAY MARCH 27

Warwick
4.32 Peejaybee 151; Stans The Man 139; Sail Away 137

[robnorth]

FRIDAY MARCH 28

Fontwell
3.45 Koenigsstern 128; Hatos 124; Call Off The Dogs 123; Next Left 122

[robnorth]

SATURDAY MARCH 29

Doncaster
1.50 Empirestateofmind 106; Spirit Genie 99; Helm Rock 98; Promethean 98; Debora’s Dream 97; Rogue Encore 97
3.35 Apiarist 114; Magnum Opus 111; Thunder Run 110; Fantastic Fox 110; Alpha Crucis 110; Native Warrior 109

Stratford
3.05 Pedley wood 142; The Wolf 139; Mahon’s Glory 131

Kempton
2.05 Cool Party 106; Alrazeen 102; Tritonic 101; Jabbar 101
2.40 Grey Cuban 115; Balmacara 113; Mount Atlas 111; Killybegs Warrior 111; Calumet 111
5.00 Harry Did 106; Amazonian Dream 102; Habooba 102; Walbank 101; Monsieur Beaulieu 100

Uttoxeter
3.55 Georgi Girl 139; King Arise 138; Range 136

[robnorth]

WE’re attending a Rotary Assembly in Aberdeen on Sunday and staying over Saturday to Monday so I thought it best to cover ratings to Monday. Hence Monday rating have been calculated off the 5 day declarations so may be affected by raised weights, though Calli Black would only benefit as she’s out of the weights yet still top. If I get a chance in between Rotary commitments I’ll delete the non-runenrs and adjust ratings as required.

Couldn’t rate the 3yo handicap at Doncaster or the juvenile handicap hurdle at Ascot on Sunday as there’s insufficient handicap form. With the early turf 3yo handicaps I’ll need to make a judgement call on which races to rate and which to leave.

SUNDAY MARCH 30

Doncaster
3.40 Billyjoh 114; Knebworth 106; Archduke Ferdinand 106; Aramis Grey 105; Woven 104
4.15 Chaturanga 109; Have Secret 108; Crimson Road 106; Royal Approval 104; Qitaal 103; City Of Delight 103

Ascot
3.20 Coastguard Station 153; Hypotenus 147
4.30 Two For Gold 156; Numitor 153; Northern Poet 145
5.05 Court In The Act 133; Loverdose 133; Court Cian 123

MONDAY MARCH 31

Wincanton
4.15 Calli Black 131; Star Walking 130; Komedy Kicks 130; Cluain Aodha 127; Miss Goldfire 126; Larchmont Lass 125; Briefly 125

Newcastle
4.00 Serious Operator 142; Horn Cape 141; Lihyan 140; Jericoacoara 139; Pay The Piper 138; Fingal’s Hill 137; Icare Allen 136

[robnorth]

Amended figures today:

Wincanton
4.15 Calli Black 121; Komedy Kicks 114; La Dolce Dolly 108

Newcastle
4.00 Horn Cape 141; Lihyan 140; Jericoacoara 139

[robnorth]

TUESDAY APRIL 1

Fakenham
4.20 Ip Up 128; For Pleasure 127; Busy Being Busy 116

Kempton
3.22 Everyonesgame 135; Demoiselle Kap 124; El Rojo Grande 109
3.55 Hermino AA 151; Ideal Des Bordes 143; Menaggio 141

WEDNESDAY APRIL 2

The Scottish flat season gets up and running with a relatively low key card, giving us regulars a chance to tangle with the nuances of Class 6 handicappers! The Class 3 sprint does have a couple of intersting runners showing up at the top of the figures. Both Profitable Edge and Eternal Sunshine, both finished the season with creditable runs in decent company and look likely to step up again this year. Fitness will be the key though, so I shall be taking a particular interest paddock side.

Musselburgh
3.37 Profitable Edge 118; Eternal Sunshine 102; Spartan Arrow 94; Looking For Lynda 94

Ludlow
3.45 Destroytheevidence 150; Good Boy Bobby 143; Annsam 142

[robnorth]

Just the one handicap for the opening day at Aintree, but it’s a fiendish contest with little to split most of the runners. A few are lightly raced and look targeted at this meeting.

THURSDAY APRIL 3

Aintree
4.40 The Folkes Tiara 161; Sans Bruit 161; Inedit Star 161; Tommy’s Oscar 160; Gunsight Ridge 160; My Mate Mozzie 159; General Medrano 159; Primoz 159.

[robnorth]

FRIDAY APRIL 4

Aintree
2.20 Brentford Hope 159; Kopeck De Mee 156; Serious Operator 155; Ike Sport 154; Steel Ally 153
4.05 Grandeur D’Ame 174; Ash Tree Meadow 171; Escaria Ten 169; Fantastic Lady 167; Western Zephyr 167; Marble Sands 165
5.15 Washington 163; Fiercely Proud 161; Country Park 157; Dominic’s Fault 156; She’s A Saint 155; Hamsiyann 155

[robnorth]

SATURDAY APRIL 5

Aintree
1.20 Navajo Indy 161; Dartan 160; Nurse Susan 153; Park Of Kings 152; Deep Cave 151; Jipcot 148
2.30 Richmond Lake 173; Happygolucky 172; Heltenham 170; Peaky Boy 168; Doctor Ken 167
4.00 Broadway Boy 184; Three Card Brag 182; Hyland 181; Minella Indo 178; Hitman 177; Duffle Coat 176; Coko Beach 175; Vanillier 175

Newcastle
2.40 Choosethenews 136; Immortal Fame 133; Flic Ou Voyou 129
3.25 Turn And Finish 140; Baron De Midleton 128; Thank You Blue 124

[Author]

Posts