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Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

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  • #1504394
    robnorth
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    • Total Posts 4842

    Court Master showed as having a significant advantage and obliged at 9/4 today.

    Weather could be a factor in the coming days with a lot of rain forecast.

    FRIDAY OCTOBER 2
    (Amended for non-runners 2/10 10:30, going to be one of those weekends!)
    Fontwell
    1.35 Baddesley Knight 144; First Lord De Cuet 144; Ena Baie 136
    2.10 Aintree My Dream 150; Princeton Royale 149; Cobra De Mai 147

    Hexham
    2.55 Prussia My Love 142; Ask Paddington 139; Uptown Harry 136

    Ascot
    1.55 Prince Of Harts 112; Tulfarris 111; Grove Ferry 100
    3.05 Jumaria Bay 106; Lord Oberon 101; Herculean 99
    3.40 C’Est No Mour 100; Calling The Wind 98; Beholden 98
    4.50 King’s Lynn 110; Desert Safari 109; Musicality 109; Fresh 109

    #1504532
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Hard work today, no top 3 winners, but no surprise given that at Ascot in particular the going softened significantly. I’m wary of non-runners tomorrow and will give more than top 3 just to save editing tomorrow! At Ascot and Newmarket I suspect first task will be to look for previous soft/heavy ground winners and work from there.

    SATURDAY OCTOBER 3

    2.10 Moll Davis 103; Wondrous Words 102; Geranium 102; Moonlight In Paris 100; Goddess Of Fire 100
    3.20 La Lune 111; Ice Sprite 108; Stagaire 107; Inclyne 105
    4.30 Lawahed 92; One Small Step 92; Lorton 89; Nehaall 88; Theotherside 88; I’m Available 88

    Ascot
    3.05 Greenside 121; Young Fire 116; Admirality 116; Blue Mist 115; Revich 115; Shelir 115
    4.15 Tawny Port 110; Han Solo Berger 105; Zig Zag Zyggy 104; Celsius 102; Mighty Spirit 102; Beyond Equal 100

    Fontwell
    3.29 Miss Tynte 159; Fleur Irlandaise 150; Group Stage 149; Distingo 145; Jacamar 145 (*** top three in the weights are first time in handicap***)
    4.04 Havana Hermano 135; Away For Slates 131; Dustin Des Mottes 129; Flaminger 128

    Wolverhampton
    7.30 Full Authority 100; Nigel Nott 99; Katheefa 98; Venturous 98; Dandys Gold 98

    #1504769
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Ascot disappeared following the downpour and it’s perhaps no surprise that the one top rated winner was Full Authority (9/4) on the artificial surface at Wolverhampton. The two Fontwell races went to third rated.

    Highlight of Sunday jumps cards is a cracking two mile handicap chase at Kelso which is sadly off the agenda for attending as a member.

    SUNDAY OCTOBER 4

    Uttoxeter
    3.16 Molly Childers 153; Fortunate George 145; Ready And Able 142

    Kelso
    3.30 Nuts Well 167; Aye Right 162; Return Ticket 162 – Top rated often goes well off a break and stable will presumably have targeted this event.

    #1504975
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    A 1-2-3 in the chase at Kelso and a frankly amazing prize 17/2 the winner, a proven performer in a small field. Simply Ned couldn’t hold this opposition off 157, but goes out after a fine career including any amount of decent runs at Graded level and two Grade 1 wins.

    Nothing to do with this project but nice to see one of my fellow ‘Kelso roof-toppers’ owner Billy Muir landing the last with his horse Folks Like Us. They had been looking to keep this one to good ground last season, but race landed today on soft.

    Nothing too exciting tomorrow…

    MONDAY OCTOBER 5

    Pontefract
    1.00 HMS President 106; Sea Trout Reach 99; War Defender 96

    Windsor
    3.24 It’s Good To Laugh 96; Vulcan 89; Sevenna Star 88

    #1504979
    sporting sam
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2279

    Hello Rob.
    No Windsor tomorrow.

    #1504997
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Thanks Sam. Been a bit of a rushed day for me out doing various so didn’t get a chance to check having worked out figures after declarations. Not madly confident of the Pontefract figures in truth, but it’s that sort of time as the turf flat season winds down.

    #1505059
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    A blank at Pontefract today, but a couple of decent events at Leicester tomorrow.

    TUESDAY OCTOBER 6

    Leicester
    2.20 Spanish Archer 106; Rhythmic Intent 106; Arctic Sound 104
    2.50 Ainsdale 113; Count D’Orsay 109; Celsius 109

    #1505176
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Arctic Sound 11/2 was the winner from top 3 today.

    WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 7

    Nottingham
    2.00 Vindolanda 87; East End Girl 87; Lyrical 80

    Ludlow
    2.45 Storm Goddess 134; Hotter Than Hell 133; France de Reve 133; Skewiff 133
    3.20 For Good Measure 150; Sumkindofking 145; Shoal Bay 144

    Kempton
    7.30 Tiger Crusade 113; Yuften 111; Mister Snowdon 104

    #1505257
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Nice Exacta from the joint tops at Nottingham Vindolanda beating East End Girl, both at 13/2. Shoal Bay won at 6/1 to provide a 3rd top winner. Disappointed that Tiger Crusade missed out at Kempton as I thought that was a strong selection.

    This time last year we were off to York for the 2-day fixture, but the world’s different this year.

    THURSDAY OCTOBER 8

    Ffos Las
    2.20 Not A Role Model 134; Lord Bryan 134; Dell’Arca 132

    Exeter
    2.30 Keep Moving 157; Solar Impulse 140; Night Of Sin 136

    Chelmsford
    7.00 Lancelot Du Lac 100; A Momentofmadness 98; Top Breeze 97

    #1505350
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Some fiendishly difficult flat handicaps with York throwing up soem tough puzzles. On course last year I made hay by ignoring the form and selecting horses on paddock inspection alone, a luxury sadly unavailable this year.

    FRIDAY OCTOBER 9

    Newmarket
    4.10 Tritonic 112; Damage Control 112; Lauganini 111; Nasraawy 111

    York
    2.05 Chance 118; Young Fire 112; Another Touch 111
    2.40 Punctuation 115; Toronto 112; King’s Charisma 107; Dancing Harry 107
    3.45 Show Me Show Me 106; Orvar 106; Machree 106; Han Solo Berger 105; Lihou 105; Powerallied 105 (sort that one out!)

    Chepstow
    2.10 Blacko 149; Fraser Island 149; Group Stage 149
    4.55 Shantou Village 164; Horatio Hornblower 154; On Tour 153

    Kempton
    6.45 Atalnata’s Boy 122; Watchable 116; Raucous 114

    Strongest selection of the day looks to be CHANCE (2.05 York) who finished second on comeback in a strong form race.

    #1505499
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    A succession of tough looking handicaps proved the difficult puzzle that I expected and yielded zilch in terms of top 3 winners!

    Another tough day tomorrow and my decision to lay off betting in October is looking smart right now. Cesarewitch ratings are weighted heavily towards Irish staying form pinned by recent Group 1 winner Princess Zoe. Diffcult to judge as there aren’t a huge amount of staying handicaps in Ireland, so horses regularly run against each other. I’m hoping the general level proves stronger than the UK form.

    SATURDAY OCTOBER 10

    Hexham
    1.55 Henrietta Bell 135; Little Bruce 134; Skipthescales 129; Rivabodiva 129

    York
    2.35 Anythingtoday 115; Glasses Up 108; Chatez 106; Spirit Dancer 106
    3.10 Greenside 119; Staxton 118; Mr Lupton 114; Admirality 114
    4.20 Speedy Boy 109; Solo Saxophone 103; Eddystone Rock 102
    4.55 Fishable 108; Poet’s Dawn 99; Good Birthday 97; La Trinidad 97

    Newmarket
    3.35 Mutadaffeq 136; Great White Shark 130; Lynwood Gold 129; Rajinsky 114

    Chepstow
    2.12 Le Ligerien 161; Stimulating Song 152; Gunnery 149
    2.47 Secret Investor 164; Potterman 161; Boldmere 160; Django Django 160; Seddon 160
    3.57 Caswell Bay 165; Hometown Boy 159; Beaufort West 157
    4.32 Spiritofthegames 163; Doitforthevillage 162; Marracudja 161

    #1505671
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    A few near misses and a sprinkling of winners including Cesarewitch winner Great White Shark at a rather stingy 9/2.

    SUNDAY OCTOBER 11

    Goodwood
    3.25 Tawny Port 104; Eye Of The Water 97; Typhoon Ten 95; Mr Style 95
    4.25 Hyanna 109; Speed Company 104; Goshen 103; Battle Of Marathon 103

    Newton Abbot
    3.15 Oscarsman 153; Prabeni 153; Laugharne 151

    #1505761
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Near miss with Hyanna at 18/1, second time she’s gone close for the ratings. Other than that the negative slide through October continued and I’m pleased I’ve laid off betting.

    Top rated: Selections 564 Wins 78 Returns 593.11
    5lbs Clear: Selections 120 Wins 19 Returns 141.41

    Still in front, but a bit of a struggle with the weather turning. Notably there have been a number of races with 2 or 3 joint top rated which have increased selections without adding to the winners, notably Friday’s York 5 furlong sprint which had 6 within 1lb. Too close for any serious involvement.

    On the up side we were in the right ball park for the Cesarewitch and winner was in the top 3.

    Just one race tomorrow, a decent little race as Musselburgh closes out it’s flat season:

    MONDAY OCTOBER 12

    Musselburgh
    2.30 Hayadh 103; Alben Spirit 102; Queen’s Sargent 100; Gale Force Maya 100; Marshal Don 100

    It would be nice to think it might be possible to back to the track in the near future but I doubt there will be spectators allowed at racecourses until the spring at the earliest. A lot of complaining coming from various parties, but racing does at least have the Levy to keep it going as long as it can keep supplying betting fodder, an income stream denied to other sports. I’m a follower of lower league football and quite how some small Scottish teams are going to get through the season I do not know.

    #1505842
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Winner Marshal Don 4/1 was ‘in the mix’ in a close race at Musselburgh but not a race I was ever going to get involved in.

    MONDAY OCTOBER 12

    Hereford
    2.23 Fontley House 138; Shah An Shah 135; Dadsintrouble 132
    2.58 Simply Loveleh 136; Dame Du Soir 129; Oscar Rose 129

    Leicester
    5.00 Cold Stare 113; Magical Wish 105; Dazzling Dan 98; Endowed 98 (ASCENSION is rated 97, and held on pure figures, but he’s an out-and-out mud lover and I suspect still has a bit in hand)

    #1505921
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    The mares race at Hereford cut up to give Oscar Rose a penalty kick which she duly converted at 11/10. She’s not a bad mare but some of these contests are ‘egg and spoon’ races. There’s no depth in the UK mares’ racing population and I’ve always said that any trainer with a mare that can raise a gallop, particularly in the north, can make hay in these contests. Downside is they get hit by the handicapper when returning to open company. The Irish must be p***ing themselves laughing at the addition of a mares’ championship race at the Cheltenham Festival. It just looks a question of which one of the Irish mares will win it.

    A couple of fancy priced place horses in the other Hereford contest, but both well held by the progressive winner Neville’s Cross.

    Waiting on the Leicester race but pressed for time this evening so I’ll post tomorrow’s ratings now. A busy day for a Wednesday.

    WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 14

    Nottingham
    2.35 Badenscoth 100; Dogged 91; Furzig 88 (Not a strong race and handicap newcomer Balzac wouldn’t have to be anything special to take this)
    4.20 Bellevarde 99; Wrenthorpe 95; Just Glamorous 93

    Wetherby
    4.10 Shannon Bridge 149; Almazhar Garde 149; Awake At Midnight 147
    4.45 Western Rules 142; Teescomponents Lad 138; Silva Eclipse 137
    5.15 Amoola Gold 147; Havana Hermano 144; Vado Forte 143
    5.45 Oakley 152; Anemoi 149; Westland Row 145

    Kempton
    6.00 Moment Of Silence 113; Desert Doctor 113; Hamish Macbeth 109
    7.00 Hieronymus 103; Jumaira Bay 100; Zhui Feng 99; Newbolt 99

Viewing 15 posts - 151 through 165 (of 267 total)
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