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Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

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  • #1501985
    robnorthrobnorth
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    • Total Posts 4626

    Mondain 11/4 winner at Ayr and two placed in the Bronze Cup.

    Busy day tomorrow:

    SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 19

    ]Newbury
    2.15 Good Birthday 110; Maydanny 109; Royal Marine 109
    4.30 Baashir 99; Diocles Of Rome 96; Epic Endeavour 96
    5.05 Petite Jack 115; Cardano 105; Fox Vardy 102

    Ayr
    2.30 Wasntexpectingthat 105; Admirality 104; Illusionist 104; Northernpowerjouse 104
    3.40 Kynren 114; Hey Jonesy 114; Nahaarr 114; Barbill 113
    4.15 Zwayyan 103; Irreverent 103; Johan 99
    4.50 Bronze River 98; Make My Day 95; Glasses Up 93
    5.25 National League 100; Gulf Of Poets 98; Queen’s Sargent 97

    Newmarket
    2.40 Madame Tantzy 98; Lady Lynetta 95; Excellent Times 93
    3.50 Smart Champion 108; Rochester House 107; Tynecvastle Park 107
    4.25 Folk Dance 94; Kepala 94; Bollin Joan 93

    #1502198
    robnorthrobnorth
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    • Total Posts 4626

    A liberal sprinkling of winners in the top 3 today with 3 top-rated or joint winners at 6/1, 7/2 and 7/5. Managed to stuff my own betting a bit and made a minor loss!

    Ayr Silver and Gold Cup weren’t too bad with 2nd 17/2 and 4th 33/1 in Silver, won 7/2 and 5th at 12/1 in the Gold Cup.

    Not be the easiest couple of weeks, but overall ratings are showing around 40% winners from top 3 which is decent in the most competitive contests. I’ve tried running some filters no the top rated, but any ‘logical’ filters tend to be covered by the market and overall it’s better to play the figures direct. It means some long losing runs but the fancy priced winners make up for that so far.

    Back to tick over for a few days, but midweek action looks pretty decent.

    SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 20

    Chelmsford
    1.30 Blown By Wind 107; Kimifive 105; Oh This Is Us 102
    3.00 Sampers Seven 108; Will To Win 105; Live In The Moment 100

    Plumpton
    2.50 Get Back Get Back 140; Magic Dancer 139; Limelighter 134

    #1502359
    robnorthrobnorth
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    • Total Posts 4626

    Small fields admittedly, but all three winners in the top three today turning an overall profit, Get Back Get Back at 100/30 continuing what has been a satisfying jumps campaign to date for this thread.

    Blown By Wind was fourth and is continually hampered by his inability to get out of the stalls on terms.

    Results up to and including 20/09/20:

    TOP RATED – Selections 454 Wins 68 Returns 538.65
    5LBS CLEAR – Selections 92 Wins 16 Returns 127.10

    Win percentage ahs dropped somewhat in the last last couple of weeks but method still showing a decent profit on raw top rated selections with no filtering. Target win percentage is 17%, and its currently sitting at 15% (though bear in mind some races have 2 or more joint).

    Weather promises to be a bit more unpredictable in the coming days, but such spells have tended to throw up the winners this season.

    MONDAY SEPTEMBER 21

    Warwick
    2.45 Western Miller 149; Monsieur D’Arque 147; Mercian Prince 143

    Leicester
    3.05 Rose Hip 99; Dark Shot 96; Mighty Spirit 95

    #1502485
    robnorthrobnorth
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    • Total Posts 4626

    Dark Shot (2nd rated) won at 11/1 and the top 3 filled the first 3 places at decent prices.

    Just the one race tomorrow:

    TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 22

    Warwick 4.40 Padleyourowncanoe 153; Young Wolf 142; Mr Mafia 141

    Top rated picked up an injury on last jumps outing, but has run creditably no the flat since. If he’s anywhere near his best this doesn’t look too taxing.

    #1502867
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4626

    WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 23

    Perth
    3.40 Townshend 152; Justatenber 149; Teescomponents Lad 149
    4.15 Very First Time 165; Bafana Blue 153; Amalfi Doug 151

    Goodwood
    1.50 Gin Palace 113; Silent Attack 111; Dawaam 109
    3.30 Tribal Craft 102; Vindolanda 102; Makawee 99

    Kempton
    7.00 Never Alone 101; Damage Control 96 Star Of Wins 96; Media Storm 96

    #1502959
    sporting sam
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1065

    Hello Rob.
    I hadn’t looked at your post today.
    I put up Elmono for the 4.15 Perth.
    Would have made a nice combination tricast!!
    Keep up the good work.

    #1502996
    robnorthrobnorth
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    • Total Posts 4626

    Sam, must admit I noted Elmono as having a ton in hand at Cartmel. Lucinda Russell liked my Tweet that his ears were ‘doing overtime’ on the run-in. I had him as fourth rated so pretty much had that raced covered. Certainly worth opposing La Bague Au Roi and Jarvey’s Plate who I imagined were out for a pipe opener.

    Otherwise a fairly quiet day. Townshend disappointed and his record, and periods off the track, suggest a physical problem that resurfaces periodically. Gin Place has looked well weighted the last twice but is falling short. Did manage the winner third rated in the Goodwood 3.30, but then there were only 3 runners!

    THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 24

    (amended for non-runners a.m. 24/9)

    Pontefract
    2.05 Aweedram 99; Arctic Sound 97; Victory Chime 96
    2.40 Amazing Red 113; Dark Jedi 106; Frankel’s Storm 92 (*other 2 no handicap form*)

    Newmarket
    2.25 Auchterarder 107; Gale Force Maya 105; Flippa The Strippa 104
    4.10 Grand Bazaar 98; Hawridge Flyer 92; Kaloor 91
    4.45 Scottish Summit 98; Ballard Down 98; First Winter 97

    Kempton
    7.30 Phuket Power 103; Concierge 101; Mount Mogan 99

    Bit of a Scottish theme running there with Aweedram, Auchterarader and Scottish Summit top rated!

    #1503140
    sporting sam
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1065

    Hi Rob, not sure where he comes on your ratings, but I’m sticking Lancelot du luc in a combination tricast with your three in the race this evening at Kempton. I’m a follower of concierge and his good showing at Ascot saw him in a good light never runs a bad race.
    Race is off at 7pm.

    #1503168
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4626

    Thanks for the time correction Sam. I do the ratings straight after declarations, so it could be they retimed as they have done that to me before. Thankfully my money was on nice and early!

    A day which was going totally the wrong way as the first two top rated finished last. Grand Bazaar thankfully got his head in front 4/7, but then we roared home with Scottish Summit 7/1 and Phuket Power 15/2!

    A couple of strong looking selections tomorrow with a bit in hand.

    FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 25

    Uttoxeter
    3.10 Tel’Art 152; Dream Berry 144; Tea Clipper 144

    Newmarket
    4.45 Kattani 97; Wild Hero 97*; Piece Of History 92; Breath Caught 92

    Haydock
    4.35 Midnights Legacy 108; King’s Charisma 108; Dancing Harry 103
    5.35 The Rain King 104; Raaed 98; Aweedram 97**; Kaser 97; Ajax Tavern 97

    * Engaged in the Cambridgeshire which presumably they didn’t think they would get in.
    ** Ran cr*p today so presuming will give this one a miss.

    #1503400
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4626

    The two clear tops both disappointed. Tel’Art dropped out quickly on the home bend and this may have been one race too many as historically he’s had a rest after three or less races. The Rain King ran to his 125/1 price and it seems no surprise that Donnacha O’Brien got shot of him.

    Breath Caught was a 3rd rated winner at 4/1, and Capone inherited second rated in Tel’Art’s race winning at 5/1 (I have my notes to prove it!).

    Busy day tomorrow and a ‘Bumbling Boris Moonshot’ style top rated selection in the Cambridgeshire!

    SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 26

    Market Rasen
    2.10 Bandsman 148; Rebel Royal 143; Fortunes Hiding 139
    2.45 Fair Mountain 151; Highly Prized 148; Dino Velvet 148

    Haydock
    2.05 Milltown Star 115; Key Victory 111; Alternative Fact 110
    2.40 George Cornelius 112; Lord Riddiford 110; Militia 108
    3.10 Molls Memory 104; Indian Creak 97; Punchbowl Flyer 97
    3.45 Indianapolis 105; On To Victory 102; Hochfeld 101
    4.15 Carlos Felix 93; Speed Company 91; Zambesi Magic 88 (updated 12:05 26/9)

    Newmarket
    3.35 Kryptos 126; Derevo 123; Bear Force One 122; Mutafani 122
    4.40 Presidential 121; Fleeting Prince 112; Tomfre 110

    Ripon
    4.05 Hyperfocus 107; Abel Handy 100; Broken Spear 96

    Chelmsford
    6.15 Red October 115; Prejudice 113; Solid Stone 112
    7.15 Quloob 104; True Destiny 92; Australis 91

    Red October looks a bet back at Chelmsford, having won a more competitive race here two runs ago.

    In the Cambridgeshire I’ve had a small each-way bet on Kryptos with Betfair (6 places). Decent animal who was very progressive as a 3yo but then had to miss that’s year renewal of this event. Off the track since then didn’t cut any ice first 3 runs this season, but more like his former self of late and hinted last time behind a convincing winner that the 1m 1f trip might be better than 1m 2f.

    #1503603
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4626

    A pig of a day today with no top rated winners and only a couple of top 3s at Chelmsford. Well done to Roger Varian for finally finding a soft enough contest for Australis to get his head in front! From my point of view I would have struggled to have selected the winner in a walkover…

    Really rubbing it in, my best bet Red October refused to enter the stalls, the Market Rasen hurdle first three were all handicap newcomers, the Market Rasen chase winner hadn’t completed on his last two starts and the Cambridgeshire draw was dead against Kryptos who ended up a close second on his side beating Sir Busker and Montatham.

    But tomorrow’s another day and there’s bound to be a 33/1 lurking around the corner.

    SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 27

    Nottingham
    2.05 Skontonovski 104; Itkaann 101; Silver Samurai 98 (A little caution as a couple haven’t run in handicaps)
    4.25 Bernardo O’Reilly 118; Recon Mission 113; Roulston Scar 110

    Chester
    4.10 Chartered 101; Heart Of Soul 92; Gabrial The One 89
    4.45 Seinesational 100; Edinburgh Castle 98; Calculation 97

    Musselburgh
    2.50 Fashion Advice 108; Line Of Reason 101; Sound Of Iona 101
    4.00 Dawaaween 93; Nirodha 89; Freyja 82

    Chartered is potentially most interesting. Well behind a decent animal last twice, drop in trip will probably help and she’s lightly raced so there may still be a bit in the tank.

    #1503682
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4626

    Dawaaween finally came good at 9/4 after a few near misses. I think the change of seasons from summer to autumn is inevitably having some affect on results and I’m scaling back my own betting a bit before NH season proper is up and running in November.

    Top Rated – Selections 493 Wins 72 Returns 559.96
    5lbs Clear – Selections 104 Wins 17 Returns 128.66

    Races with withdrawals (like Red October yesterday), non-runners or joint rated make the figures a little fuzzy, but over the period of this project to date the ratings are averaging 40% winning races from top 3. That’s not bad in a competitive set of races and gives an overall and steady impact value of greater than 1.3. Target for top rated is 16% and we are just below that.

    My own betting since start of July is showing profit of around 10% on turnover since start of July. That’s not bad off a method throwing up selections in most Class 2 and 3 handicaps. I’ve not really found any filter that would have made a difference and maximising turnover seems to be the key.

    MONDAY SEPTEMBER 28

    Hamilton
    2.00 Archaeology 87; Le Chiffre 87; Granite City Doc 87 (Three joints in a 7 runner race suggests this is tight to call)
    3.30 Never In Paris 90; Zim Baby 88; Mina Velour 88

    Newton Abbot
    4.10 King Alfonso 151; Scardura 146; Master Work 140

    I’m starting an 8 month Open University course in early October, so may have to back off the volume of races I do ratings for. I’ll see how it goes though and will produce figures as I am able. Having retired from work at the end of July I find myself busier than ever!

    #1503797
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4626

    TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 29

    Ayr
    3.15 Harrison Point 99; Get Knotted 97; Clog Maker 96

    Bangor
    1.40 See The Sea 144; Kajaki 144; El Borracho 143
    3.25 Solstice Star 149; Commodore Barry 146; Manofthemountain 142

    #1503945
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4626

    WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 30

    Nottingham
    2.55 Saluti 99; Tenax 96; Production 94;
    3.30 Rosa Gold 94; Global Hero 93; Alfred Boucher 91; Humbert 91

    Kempton
    6.30 Intrepidly 105; The Gill Brothers 103; Golden Force 99; Variyann 99
    7.00 Iffraaz 97; Master Of Stars 93; City Tour 92

    #1504252
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4626

    A quiet spell was ended by Iffraaz at 5/1.

    Now into October which I find pretty much the most difficult month of the year. I’m taking a betting break until November, but I’ll keep posting the ratings and update results.

    THURSDAY OCTOBER 1

    Warwick
    1.45 Smiths Cross 132; Lygon Rock 131; Vancouver 130
    2.20 Court Master 145; Global Tour 134; Bootlegger 133

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