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Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

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  • #1499923
    robnorthrobnorth
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    A bit of a carve up with non-runners in the 1.55 at Ascot so amended top 3 are:

    Tone The Barone 103; Yimou 100; Mount Mogan 100

    The top rated won comfortably over C/D two runs ago then outspeeded on very quick ground at Salisbury. Very interesting back at Ascot.

    #1500061
    robnorthrobnorth
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    A couple of winners today and a few near misses. Tone The Barone repaid my confidence at 9/4 and Dreamloper next up at 9/2, after which the afternoon was a tad frustrating.

    Just three races tomorrow:

    SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 6

    York
    1.30 Dubai Acclaim 97; Glasses Up 96; Mr Carpenter 95
    3.40 Many A Star 108; Royal Context 106; Benefit Street 106

    Fontwell
    1.40 Soldier to Follow 135; Building Bridges 131; Esprit De Baileys 130; Capone 130

    Value for the day lies with a top rated that comes in under the radar form wise. SOLDIER TO FOLLOW’ s hurdles form doesn’t look special but this one has really struggled on soft and heavy going, by far his best run was on good to soft and forecast ground at Fontwell is good. Pulled up in a bog at Bangor on handicap debut, but few got through the ground on that day. Worth a punt at 20/1 with 25/1 available in a place.

    #1500172
    robnorthrobnorth
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    A near miss from Many A Star at 10/1, the other top rated were 100+ on Betfair and duly lived down to those expectations. Soldier To Follow led early but weakened quickly and there’s a suggestion of a physical problem. On the upside ‘supporting cast members’ Mr Carpenter 25/1 and Esprit De Baileys 8/1 did the business.

    Updated stats:

    Top Rated: Selections 387 Wins 60 Returns 497.88
    5lbs Clear: Selections 86 Wins 15 Returns 124.23

    Top rated strike rate is 15.5% and Top 3 are approximately 40% success (difficult to tie that figure down with joint rated but more or less 40%). Sound results over 360 races and returns from Betfair are always better than Industry SP. You do need a bit of patience in the quiet spells but, like today, the near misses give an indication that selections are in the right area.

    Steady action for the early part of this week ramping up at St Leger meeting starts on Wednesday.

    MONDAY SEPTEMBER 7

    Leicester
    3.20 De Vegas Kid 98; Eton College 94; Triple Distilled 93

    Perth
    3.40 Oleg 153; Cracking Destiny 152; Caius Marcius 150; Tidal Watch 150
    4.50 Bafana Blue 140; Notnow Seamus 136; The Boola Bee 135

    #1500298
    robnorthrobnorth
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    No top rated winners but there or thereabouts, with two winners from second rated Eton College 12/1 and Cracking Destiny at 7/1. Bafana Blue stayed on for 2nd at 25/1 and is the sort to keep in mind for stamina tests in the North in the coming months.

    TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 8

    Newton Abbot
    2.40 Rhythm Is A Dancer 147; Yeavering Belle 145; Doctor Look Here 140

    Goodwood
    4.40 Platitude 109; Just Hubert 105; Smart Champion 102

    Newcastle
    4.45 Eastern Sheriff 103; Glan Y Gors 94; Landue 94

    #1500395
    robnorthrobnorth
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    A blank today. Just Hubert 2nd at 7/1 was the nearest.

    WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 9

    Kempton
    1.55 Stamford Raffles 103; Omnivega 97; Summeronsevenhills 97 (Very much depends which Stamford Raffles turns up as he has two polar opposite ways of running!)
    2.25 Impatient 94; Itkaann 92; Zhui Feng 91

    Doncaster
    3.45 Fox Power 112; Groveman 109; Starcat 108

    Uttoxeter
    3.35 Cervaro Mix 141; Flashing Glance 137; Voodoo Doll 137
    4.10 Bermeo 132; Sirobbie 129; Portway flyer 126

    Nothing that immediately jumps out from this set of ratings, but you never know!

    #1500532
    robnorthrobnorth
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    Nothing from the top rated today, Omnivega EVENS and Flashing glance at 13/2 from the close rated. It’s been a low key week, but very little has gripped me as strong selections.

    THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 10

    Doncaster
    3.45 Cold Front 114; Jumaira Bay 114; Haqeeqy 113
    4.15 Hart Stopper 97; Musharrif 96; Breanski 94; Tenax 94
    This event looks like equine bingo with most having been below form or failed at a higher level of late.

    Chelmsford
    7.30 Watchable 101; Drakefell 98; Benny and the Jets 96

    #1500664
    robnorthrobnorth
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    Waiting on Chelmsford to see if top rated can break the losing run. Cold Front was 2nd at 5/1, beaten by the third rated Haqeeqy(12/1). 3rd, 5th and 6th in the 4.15, won by Bernardo O’Reilly who has ability but came to this off a couple of thumpings!

    FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 11

    Sandown
    2.30 Campari 112; Yes My Boy 104; Mon Choix 102
    3.05 Magical Wish 107; Typhoon Ten 107; Breath Of Air 107; Boy In The Bar 107 (A real toughie with the whole field within 5lbs)

    Doncaster
    1.10 Sweet Celebration 111; Albaflora 96; Frankel’s Storm 95
    1.40 Sleeping Lion 107; Calculation 107; Volcanic Sky 106
    2.10 Sunset Breeze 109; Byline 108; Danzan 108

    Chester
    4.00 Endowed 102; Buhturi 101; Sir Maximilian 99
    5.10 Arabist 100; Infrastructure 97; Gabrials Boy 95

    STOP PRESS – Dependable veteran Watchable obliged at 11/2, with 8/1 Drakefell providing the Exacta.

    #1500894
    robnorthrobnorth
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    Breath Of air own at 9/1 to clear a profit for the 4 joint tops in that race. Only other winner from top 3s was Sir Maximilian at 6/1, best of the rest being Sunset Breeze just pipped at Doncaster.

    Sleeping Lion and Calculation showed the folly of being held up at the back in a race which turns into a three furlong burn-up!

    SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 12

    Doncaster
    1.15 Firmament 113; Diocles Of Rome 109; Aweedram 107; Matthew Flinders 107; Sandret 107
    2.25 Arecibo 113; Jawwaal 112; Justanotherbottle 110; Han Solo Berger 110; Yimou 110
    5.15 Toronto 109; Spanish Archer 107; Away He Goes 106

    Fontwell
    3.25 Beat The Judge 168; Ballywood 157; Sizing Platinum 150
    3.35 Premier D’Trioce 135; Putting Green 129; Yes No Maybe So 123

    Chester
    2.40 Prejudice 116; Be More 115; Victory Chime 112
    3.15 Tidal Point 107; Overhaugh Street 103; Always Resolute 100
    4.20 Arcanada 98; Big Les 96; Penwortham 93 (Best drawn of these is Penwortham in 7, but of the low draws highest rated is course specialist Powerallied at 91)

    #1501140
    robnorthrobnorth
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    A few winners in the supporting cast today and Beat The Judge won at 15/8. The latter was a 140 rated hurdler looks a very decent chasing prospect while the ground doesn’t get too soft.

    The Chester sprint was won by stall 2, after Power Allied led for a good deal of the way. The three top rated didn’t show and it’s hardly worth looking outside the bottom half dozen in the draw in these events.

    Three interesting contests at Chelmsford tomorrow:

    SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 13

    Chelmsford
    2.20 Fiji 109; Oh This Is Us 108; Arbalet 107
    2.55 Raucous 109; Buridan 109; Watchable 105; Woven 105
    3.25 Fleeting Prince 112; Silver Line 109; Sanaadh 108

    #1501443
    robnorthrobnorth
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    A bit of a barren period at the moment, none of the races showing a winner from my top groups. It’s a time of the season I often find tough, and current results reflecting that.

    Only a single qualifying race for each of the next two days. I’ll update results summary later.

    MONDAY SEPTEMBER 14

    Bath
    4.05 Chil Chil 106; Motagally 105; Pri cess Power 98; Delagate The Lord 95
    Interesting C/D Rematch between the top two and looks tight

    TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 15

    Yarmouth
    1.30 Tritonic 109; Star If Wins 109; Thibaan 106
    Tight 4-runner contest I shall watch but not get involved betting wise.

    #1501484
    robnorthrobnorth
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    Results to date:

    Top Rated: Selections 424 Wins 63 Returns 517.25
    5lbs Clear: Selections 92 Wins 16 Returns 127.10

    Still showing a decent profit despite a sticky spell in the last week or so.

    Further to the comment about today’s Bath race, Motagally is now a pound better off with Chil Chil for a convincing C/D win in similar conditions yet prices are around the same. He didn’t handle the softened ground at Ripon and I make him best of the two.

    #1501538
    robnorthrobnorth
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    I took 2/1 on Betfair about Motagally and he didn’t the business very nicely at 11/8. He will keep winning while the ground stays quick.

    The method doesn’t measure direct collateral form rather the performance of horses against their handicap mark and that of the winner of their last race. Sometimes you have to set that, use your figures as an initial guide and then make a choice which on this occasion was a no brainer.

    A reminder that the one qualifying race tomorrow at Yarmouth looks a tight affair:

    Yarmouth
    1.30 Tritonic 109; Star Of Wins 109; Thibaan 106

    The action warms up later in the week as Yarmouth steps up a bit and Ayr Gold Cup meeting kicks into action. There is also a decent meeting at Kelso on Wednesday, which regrettably is a closed doors affair but members have a free day’s sub to Racing TV.

    #1501642
    robnorthrobnorth
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    The fourth rated won today’s race but no surprise as it was very tight.

    Yarmouth September Festival continues tomorrow, Kelso get their season kicked off and Ayr follows on from THrusday.

    WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 16

    Yarmouth
    3.45 Texting 108; Caspian Prince 105; Leodis Dream 98
    4.20 Via Serendipity 96; Strawberry Jack 95; King Ragnar 92

    Kelso
    5.10 Kaizer 148; Push tHe Tempo 146; Skiddaw Valleys 146
    5.40 Fort De L’Ocean 135; Monsiuer Co 134; Coll Mix 130

    #1501722
    robnorthrobnorth
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    Best today was reverse forecast in the 3.45 at Yarmouth.

    In the 4.20 I backed Via Srendipity, he lost. That’s the way of the world, if I don’t back him he wins!

    THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 17

    Pontefract
    2.20 Zim Baby 102; Gale Force Maya 99; Mountain Brave 96

    Ayr
    3.00 Redarna 105; Glasses Up 104; Just Hiss 104

    Yarmouth
    2.40 Protected Guest 101; Crystal Pegasus 98; Pactolus 92
    3.10 Gas Monkey 112; Bodyline 108; Byron Flyer 104
    5.10 Hamish Macbeth 100; City Walk 99; Spanish Angel 94

    Chelmsford
    6.00 Merhoob 106; Full Authority 105; Alemaratalyoum 102

    #1501845
    robnorthrobnorth
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    Three winners at Yarmouth from top 3 with Hamish Macbeth a top rated winner at 11/4, City Walk provided the Exacta in that contest. Redarna ran well at 40/1 at Ayr and often starts at long odds yet runs some decent races.

    Newbury
    2.30 Mankayan 112; Calling The Wind 110; King’s Caper 108

    Ayr
    3.55 Never In Paris 102; He’zanarab 98; John Kirkup 94
    25 runners but I reckon all these have a decent shout at double figure prices.
    4.25 Mondain 100; Elysian Flame 99; Fun Mac 94

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