The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

Home Forums Tipping and Research Daily Lays And Plays Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

Viewing 15 posts - 166 through 180 (of 218 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1506077
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4724

    Three top rated winners today, Wrenthorpe 9/2, Desert Doctor 15/2 and Amoola Gold at 4/1, the latter heading up rather tasty Tricast.

    THURSDAY OCTOBER 16

    Carlisle
    2.26 Pookie Pekan 148; Court Dreaming 144; Bafana Blue 141
    Wincanton
    3.55 Jamacho 135; Shiroccan Roll 131; Get Back Get Back 128
    4.30 Forgot To Ask 146; Flying Verse 135; Lillington 131
    Chelmsford
    7.00 Home Before Dusk 105; Assimilation 104; Lord Neidin 104

    #1506172
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4724

    A quiet day though Court Dreaming made fitbess tell at 13/2, he top rated Pookie Pekan making an encouraging return.

    FRIDAY OCTOBER 16

    Uttoxeter
    2.23 Midnight Sapphire 141; Haul Away 136; The Eaglehaslanded 136

    Haydock
    1.45 Air Raid 105; Happy Bere 105; Edgewood 105
    2.48 Mascat 93; Brentford Hope 91; Markazi 91

    Fakenham
    3.40 Kilfulum Cross 142; As You Like 142; Favorito Buck’s 142; One Forty Seven 142 (and 3 others within 2lbs, sort that one out!)

    #1506251
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4724

    A good day at Haydock with joint top Air Raid winning at 16/1 in a photo. The other handicap had top three filling the first three places, Brentford Hope 9/4 winning from Mascat and Markazi. The jumps races were toughies, the winner at Fakenham being only a pound off of the 4 joint-tops and Uttoxeter race full of seasonal debutants.

    Incidentally I didn’t rate it but makes a change to see an 18 runner novice chase at Uttoxeter even if it was a handicap. Cracking race and the winner Demachine is an interesting prospect at the right end of the ratings.

    With the accent on Group races at Ascot it makes for a quiet day on the handicap front. Bonus for me is that I have been able to keep up with the figures in amongst my Earth Science studies. (Had to recall Maths, Chemistry, Physics and Biology in the past week…, my head hurts!)

    SATURDAY OCTOBER 17

    Ascot
    4.15 Keats 120; Tempus 120; Njord 116; Hortzadar 116

    Catterick
    3.45 Count D’Orsay 109; Broken Spear 107; Lord Riddiford 104 (Weaker than last year’s event and looks a good chance for Count D’Orsay to repeat his success)

    Market Rasen
    3.21 Drumconnor Lad 147; Fleur Irlandaise 147; Dream Berry 144; Palladium 144
    4.31 Louis’ Vac Pouch 154; Ravenhill Road 153; Fidux 148

    Wolverhampton
    8.00 Iffraaz 102; Carlos Felix 101; Tafish 100

    #1506547
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4724

    After the defection of both Keats and Tempus the ratings gave a very nice winner in Njord at 15/2. Still waiting on the Wolverhampton race at time of updating the thread.

    I had a look at monthly results today and I note that the top rated made a decent profit in June, July and August, but the wheels came off in September. After the last couple of days returns are a few points in deficit for October. I always found September/October and awkward time and have generally cut back my betting activities during this time, but would hope that results will improve as the jumps season ramps up.

    On that very subject there is some decent jump racing tomorrow, though fitness likely to be a key.

    SUNDAY OCTOBER 18

    Ffos Las
    3.10 Ballyandy 166; Thebannerkingrebel 161; Remiluc 160

    Kempton
    2.57 Locker Room Talk 154; Cap Du Nord 148; Solar Impulse 147;

    Sedgefield
    4.33 Petite Power 154; Chanceanotherfive 154; Theligny 152; Arthur’s Gift 152
    5.10 River Frost 146; Melody Of Scotland 136; Landsman 135

    #1506650
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4724

    Locker Room Talk was the one top rated winner today at 9/2. The only Class 3 event tomorrow is a novices’ handicap chase at Plumpton and I’m avoiding them until there’s enough form in the book, so it’s a rare blank day.

    #1506695
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4724

    TUESDAY OCTOBER 20

    Exeter
    2.15 Whatthebutlersaw 122; Oscars Moonshine 114; Umndeni 112; Talktomenow 112
    2.50 Commodore Barry 142; Portway Flyer 141; Kitty’s Light 130

    Newcastle
    3.00 Brian The Snail 104; Many A Star 101; Blackheath 98

    #1506814
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4724

    Results have picked up again in recent days and Brain The Snail was a satisfying winner at 11/1. One of these instances where you have a proven performer at class, course and distance allowed to start at surprisingly long odds.

    WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 21

    Newmarket
    3.20 Sun bear 111; Manaabit 108; Zezenia 106

    Hereford
    3.00 Atlantic Storm 131; Falcon Sun 122; Ballyvic Boru 121

    Fontwell
    3.10 Presence Of Mind 144; The Russian Doyen 141; Distingo 140

    #1506917
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4724

    Upward curve continued today for top rates, Atlantic Storm winning at 13/2. Just a couple of qualifying races tomorrow before a busy period Friday to Sunday.

    THURSDAY OCTOBER 22

    Carlisle
    2.50 Romeo Brown 140; Flamboyant Joyeux 137; Fin and Game 136
    3.25 Lough Derg Farmer 126; Boric 126; Crank Em Up 126 (Just 3lbs separate the 6 runners)

    #1506988
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4724

    This Friday was always a must go to Newbury day when I was down south. Some decent handicaps as a prelude to a quality weekend.

    FRIDAY OCTOBER 23
    Newbury
    3.25 Moomba 113; Coconut 108; Gentleman At Arms 102
    4.00 Typhoon Ten 102; Gambon 100; Soar Above 98
    4.35 Eye Of The Water 102; Whelans Way 100; Roundhay Park 99

    Doncaster
    2.40 Rathbone 111; Aplomb 110; Tinto 108
    3.15 Hochfeld 100; Rhythmic Intent 98; Calculation 98
    3.50 Amir Kabir 105; Pride Of America 101; Kaleidoscopic 101

    CHELTENHAM
    3.00 Hometown Boy 158; Up The Straight 145; Dagueneau 145; Exod’ela 145; Lungarno Prince 145
    3.35 Azzuri 169; Doitforthevillage 169; Dolos 168
    5.15 Byron Flyer 153; Benny’s Bridge 149; Miss Heritage 149; Scorched Earth 149

    #1507081
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4724

    A low key ‘change of the seasons’ day today, with just a couple of winners from top 3.

    SATURDAY OCTOBER 24

    Kelso
    2.33 Some Chaos 165; Claud and Goldie 163; The Hollow Ginge 162; Chidswell 162

    Doncaster
    1.10 Tulip Fields 127; Cepheus 113; Iconic Choice 113
    2.20 Came From The Dark 114; Venturous 113; Orvar 110
    4.05 Breanski 106; Bear Force One 103; Musicality 103

    Newbury
    4.45 Tempus 112; Surrey Pride 110; Chatez 105

    Cheltenham
    3.15 Honest Vic 161; Goodbye Dancer 161; Flinck 156
    3.50 Frodon 175; Bob Mahler 172; Cogry 171
    5.00 Young Turk 140; Alminar 138; Ballymalin 136

    Interesting one for me is second rated in the staying chase at Kelso (2.33) CLAUD AND GOLDIE. Very lightly raced for a veteran and arguably still on the upgrade. Has been produced fit first time before and Sandy Forster will have this one ready.

    #1507223
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4724

    A cracking day with Some Chaos 11/4 (and top-2 forecast with a 14/1), Tulip Fields 9/1, Honest Vic 12/1 and Frodon 9/2.

    Plenty of rain about so I’ve given top 4 for each race tomorrow just in case of non-runenrs.

    SUNDAY OCTOBER 25

    Aintree
    1.22 One Style 159; Sametegal 152; Perfect Candidate 151; Brother Tedd 151
    1.57 Really Super 168; Oldgrangewood 167; Cracking Destiny 163; Magic Saint 159
    3.07 Neverbeen To Paris 141; Yes No Maybe So 136; Three Ways 136; Dell’Arca 132; Vancouver 132
    3.42 Caius Marcius 161; En Meme Temps 159; Jolly’s Cracked It 158; Marlborough Sounds 157

    Wincanton
    2.52 Worthy Farm 155; (Manofothemountain 142*); Step Back 137; Beau De Brizais 133
    * ran today so likely non-runner

    I’ll update the updated figures for performance of the ratings tomorrow. I had assumed the wheels would have come off by now but, after a very poor September, method has bounced back in the last 2 weeks and top rated still nicely in front. Suppose I’ll have to keep going for my faithful reader!

    #1507232
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3435

    Lovely work today Rob. I’m interested in Really Super tomorrow too and put her in the antepost comp.

    #1507235
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4724

    Hi greenasgrass. Yes, that Market Rasen form looks very solid and as a 6yo you must suspect there’s still some improvement in the locker. The flat win at Chelmsford was encouraging.

    #1507274
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4724

    3.07 is a bit of a carve up. Amended top 3 are:

    Three Ways 136; Dell’Arca 132; Legalized 131

    #1507354
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4724

    Results update

    Top Rated: 90/638 (14.1%) Returns 688.46 (108%)
    5lbs Clear: 21/131 (16%) Returns 158.91 (121.3%)

    Still a decent margin which is very pleasing for blind backing of top rated in competitive races. I’ve avoided posting those races where there were a number of handicap newcomers, but total results show 111% so maybe the newcomers aren’t the foe I feared.

    Jumps returns have produced most of the profit, though the flat really struggled in September.

    MONDAY OCTOBER 26
    Redcar
    1.15 Al Erayg 97; Stone Soldier 96; Striding Edge 94

    Leicester
    2.00 Win O’Clock 103; Buriram 99; Natural History 95 (Natural History had a tough race at Newbury on Saturday so this will presumably be a match)
    2.35 King Carney 114; Walhaan 110; Hartswood 108

    Nothing above Class 4 on Tuesday so a day off.

Viewing 15 posts - 166 through 180 (of 218 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.