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according to the racing post O’Brien is +£45.16 to a £1 stake up on his british runners in the last five seasons.
+£45.16 – Qualify 50/1 = -£4.84
-£4.84 – Wings Of Eagles 40/1 = -£44.84I remember there was a time when the racing media said Brendan Powell was a trainer to follow at Fontwell because he had massive profit to a £1 stake. But that was also only due to a couple of big priced winners. When one or two winners makes the difference then it’s impossible to know whether that profit is meaningful in regards future betting.
Ginger, why are you subtracting the big priced winners when they won ?
It is like you doing a P&L of your accounts and saying that 20/1 winner does not count.
For example every horse that sunspangled mentions is an O’brien horse, is that not tedious?
Surely a genuine horse racing fan should assess every runner objectively, not just focus on one trainer.
I don’t know whether that is true, Judge. But if it is I doubt he tips up every AOB runner. If a punter is selective in choosing which of a trainer’s runners to back, then even by only tipping one trainer’s runners can profit.
Might be tedious for some, but everyone’s tipping is tedious to some (I’m the evidence)… Complaining about the way others bet is surely equally as tedious. Simple, if something is tedious ignore it.
Value Is EverythingGinger, why are you subtracting the big priced winners when they won ?
It is like you doing a P&L of your accounts and saying that 20/1 winner does not count.
I am saying that if it wasn’t for one winner (take Qualify out) that “5 season profit” becomes a loss, Botchy.
Statistics encouraging punters to follow a trainer in the future must be meaningful statistics and not just coincidence; otherwise acting on it in the future will only end up with deficit.If my 5 season profit was only due to one big priced winner then I would not expect anyone to see that profit as at all meaningful. If profit is due to only one big priced winner it would be more likely to be due to a coincidence rather than the punter’s skill/knowledge.
Value Is EverythingAnd Ham if you’re honest 90 percent of your tips on here are Ballydoyle horses, which is fair enough, it’s a free country, but posting but after reading whoever posted about obriens uk group runners in future i may start at his runners and study out the way (in higher level races anyway)
as if focusing on O’brien is a new development for you, don’t make me laugh.
Like ive said i dont tip a horse because of a trainer nor i do i approach the race in that way, if it always ended up being the same trainer then so be it
But really i can categorically say that 90% of my slections are not ballydoyle horses lol look at this weekends selections
Desert skyline e/w
Quiet reflection e/w
Hydrangea
Ribchester
Nothinf in champion
Lord glittersSO what 1 in 6 of this weekends selection are ballydoyle horses, and they have multiple runners in most of the races,i wouldnt say thats unusual for my selections but i generally couldnt care who i end up backing if it was always obrien or someone else, aslong as they win lol
Not to mention you completely miss the comment ive made twice about his maiden horses…..
It dosent matter regardless, you like to back gosden/johnston horses constantly someone likes to follow ballydoyle, its all the same thing, trying to find a winner
Ginger, why are you subtracting the big priced winners when they won ?
It is like you doing a P&L of your accounts and saying that 20/1 winner does not count.
I am saying that if it wasn’t for one winner (take Qualify out) that “5 season profit” becomes a loss, Botchy.
Statistics encouraging punters to follow a trainer in the future must be meaningful statistics and not just coincidence; otherwise acting on it in the future will only end up with deficit.If my 5 season profit was only due to one big priced winner then I would not expect anyone to see that profit as at all meaningful. If profit is due to only one big priced winner it would be more likely to be due to a coincidence rather than the punter’s skill/knowledge.
My main point was Ginger not that it was an a anomaly, more that it’s pretty sad anyway that +£45 becomes an amazing figure whereas the norm for trainers over that period is something like -£500. I was just trying to use that as an example of how hard it is to win against the bookies.
GT is spot on with his stats assessment – the devil is always in the detail.
We all seek ‘systems’ to help us bypass the hard work, the same as dieters want a magic pill. There is so much data around that smarter heads than ours have long ago broken it down, found any system (like backing trainers at certain tracks) and eaten the edge.
Back to the hard work!
Soft now at Ascot with more rain on the way. Here Comes When looks a daft price in light of the ground. He’s 25/1 despite beating Ribchester (4/1) last time in soft to record his first G1. 6 of his 8 wins have been on easy ground and he will not be 25/1 this time tomorrow.
There are three or four in this who could spring a surprise on the ground, but HCW looks the best value.
according to the racing post O’Brien is +£45.16 to a £1 stake up on his british runners in the last five seasons.
+£45.16 – Qualify 50/1 = -£4.84
-£4.84 – Wings Of Eagles 40/1 = -£44.84I remember there was a time when the racing media said Brendan Powell was a trainer to follow at Fontwell because he had massive profit to a £1 stake. But that was also only due to a couple of big priced winners. When one or two winners makes the difference then it’s impossible to know whether that profit is meaningful in regards future betting.
Ginger, why are you subtracting the big priced winners when they won ?
It is like you doing a P&L of your accounts and saying that 20/1 winner does not count.
In any statistical analysis you have to look for data that doesn’t seem to fit the general pattern. It’s basically checking to see if there is a freak result that skews the figures artificially. These items are referred to as Outliers because there are generally a small number of them, yet they affect the overall result quite markedly due to being so far away from the bulk of the data.
Analysts will often reject these Outliers in order to get a more accurate picture based on the larger sample of more consistent results.
What you would basically be asking is whether 40/1 winners are guaranteed year after year moving forward.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Soft now at Ascot with more rain on the way. Here Comes When looks a daft price in light of the ground. He’s 25/1 despite beating Ribchester (4/1) last time in soft to record his first G1. 6 of his 8 wins have been on easy ground and he will not be 25/1 this time tomorrow.
There are three or four in this who could spring a surprise on the ground, but HCW looks the best value.
At first when the soft going was announced this morning i was slightly concerned for ribchester, although, if it wasnt for him being eased and then ridden in the most confusing ride this year by buick, youd have to think he would have won that and apart from his 2017 debut in meydan that hed probably have needed he would be 4 G1’s on the bounce, really cant see anything other than him winning, everytime i try to get him beat i end up putting more on LOL
that being said im convinced like your highlighting that something at a bigger price may run a place, had a small e/w on thunder snow at 16/1
Soft now at Ascot with more rain on the way. Here Comes When looks a daft price in light of the ground. He’s 25/1 despite beating Ribchester (4/1) last time in soft to record his first G1. 6 of his 8 wins have been on easy ground and he will not be 25/1 this time tomorrow.
There are three or four in this who could spring a surprise on the ground, but HCW looks the best value.
Remember you tipping HCW in the Sussex at a massive price, Joe.
Seemed to get the run of the race from the front that day and somewhat of a Goodwood specialist. Strong headwind forecast for Ascot tomorrow will be against most front runners and this is Berkshire not Sussex.
25/1 is fair, especially if it gets heavy. But Lighning Spear might get the advantage of a slip stream (hold up horse) was only a length away at Goodwood, goes well on soft and has run well at Ascot. Didn’t run that well in France last time, but often disappointed abroad. So 25/1 Here Comes When compared to 59/1 Lightning Spear, I prefer Lightning Spear and (after 3/1 Ribchester and 8/1 Beat The Bank) had a few quid on the latter @ 59/1.Value Is EverythingHe was prominent at Goodwood, GT, but didn’t get a definite lead until very late, essentially, to my eye, outstaying everything and winning perhaps with a bit more in hand than it seemed. Visually, the late rally by Ribchester was what caught they eye on the post, but I think that might have been deceptive.
Based on that assumption, and stamina being the order of the day tomorrow, I’ll stick with him. Am quite surprised to see that he’s never been tried beyond a mile. Tomorrow is reportedly his final race before retirement. I wonder why they’re finishing him as he’s having a good season and is only 7 and arguably, like quite a few, gaining stamina as he gets older.
Simcock said after Goodwood that the trip just stretches Lightning Spear on that ground. If he’s right, the horse will have little chance tomorrow.
The ground will almost certainly decide it and Thunder Rock should be there along with Al Wukair, Beat the Bank and maybe even old Breton Rock if things get completely desperate which is not impossible by the look of the forecast.
Persuasive is a mad price, too, I think. She loves soft ground, is a C&D winner and has only been out of the first three once. 28/1.
Am on Al Wukhair here at 13/2 .
I think the stiff finish and the headwind will suit this fella!!
And if it comes up proper soft Breton Rock is huge at 50/1 !! LOL
A few of us in search of long-priced winners here, but looking back on results, surprises are rare. In the last 15 years the longest priced winner was Where or When at 7/1. Three of those races were run on soft ground and one on heavy.
I am always in search of long priced winners Joe!! LOL
But this Al Wukair will be ideally suited by conditions trip and hopefully the way the race is going to be run!!A few of us in search of long-priced winners here, but looking back on results, surprises are rare. In the last 15 years the longest priced winner was Where or When at 7/1. Three of those races were run on soft ground and one on heavy.
Wings of Eagles was the biggest priced winner of the Derby in how many years, too, and I’m still recovering from talking myself out of backing him.
Wings of Eagles was the biggest priced winner of the Derby in how many years, too, and I’m still recovering from talking myself out of backing him.
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Very fair point.
I think I made the automatic assumption that awful weather and bad ground would make a big priced winner quite likely and was more than surprised when I looked back at results. But as you say, the shock can come at any time.
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