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Not many people back at SP. If you account for BP on the day of race taken, it would be a fair bit higher %. You can say for sure that the previous 2 years would of returned a better profit by far with less runners. I am presuming that the number were based on SP mind.
Just off the top of my head, last year Brave Anna 50’s and the year before Qualify 100’s would of accounted for 75% of bets placed to level stakes over two years.
Still saying that, with backing AOB runners this year, especially Ante Post has been nearly impossible due to the block entries made for each race and the number of runners actually turning up.
Sunspangled, can I ask you a question, if you see a horse that you like, but is trained by a different outfit to O’Brien, do you subconsciously dismiss it because it’s not a ballydoyle horse?
Ah, trying to stir things up again 😀 Just can’t leave it alone.
Maybe I should ask you do you feel unclean when you back a Ballydoyle horse?
Fun but useless fact, Beat The Bank is atempting to become a third winner at Champions Day for his groom Sandeep Gauravaram – his other wins courtesy of a certain racing freak by the name of Frankel.
The assumption is that the on the straight course the far side is going to be the best ground by some way. Churchill is drawn in 1 with Lancaster Bomber in 3 and Sir John 5, whereas Ribchester’s out in 13. It seems to me that O’Brien couldn’t have done the draw for this himself and come out with a better result.
Sunspangled, can I ask you a question, if you see a horse that you like, but is trained by a different outfit to O’Brien, do you subconsciously dismiss it because it’s not a ballydoyle horse?
Ah, trying to stir things up again 😀 Just can’t leave it alone.
Maybe I should ask you do you feel unclean when you back a Ballydoyle horse?
unclean LOL
Sunspangled, can I ask you a question, if you see a horse that you like, but is trained by a different outfit to O’Brien, do you subconsciously dismiss it because it’s not a ballydoyle horse?
Ah, trying to stir things up again 😀 Just can’t leave it alone.
Maybe I should ask you do you feel unclean when you back a Ballydoyle horse?
No I don’t, I’m quite happy to back Ballydoyle horses, just that I appraise every horse on it’s merits unlike some on here who back every Ballydoyle horse blind.
The assumption is that the on the straight course the far side is going to be the best ground by some way. Churchill is drawn in 1 with Lancaster Bomber in 3 and Sir John 5, whereas Ribchester’s out in 13. It seems to me that O’Brien couldn’t have done the draw for this himself and come out with a better result.
Completely agree. It was the same last year.
Aidan has had 131 runners in 74 Group races in the UK so far in 2017, winning 24 of them.
Indeed it’s impressive that he’s up to a level stake, especially when you consider he often has several runners in every race.
according to the racing post O’Brien is +£45.16 to a £1 stake up on his british runners in the last five seasons.
however you switch it to Ireland and he’s -£535.84. to the same stake. That’s a staggering difference. I would put this down to two factors, firstly that he’s had a lot more runners in Ireland, and also along similar lines he’s also been much more discerning with his British placed runners, only running the cream of his crop over here.
I wonder if “the borg” are quite as discerning, and only back his British runners and leave his Irish ones alone?
-£500 sounds quite bad but it’s pretty normal for a top class trainer over that period.
I think which explains how difficult it is for a punter to win against the bookies in the long run- you inevitably get ground down by the numbers- a trainer up +£45 over a five year period is considered a roaring success, while -£500 is considered normal. Backing all of Johnston’s runners over the same period would have given a minus of around £1300.
Looking at the figures the bookies have it nailed down to an exact science- no doubt they’ll be subtly shortening up the O’Brien’s UK runners even more next year- to strike back at “The Borg” whose spaceships are lined up
however you switch it to Ireland and he’s -£535.84. to the same stake. That’s a staggering difference. I would put this down to two factors, firstly that he’s had a lot more runners in Ireland, and also along similar lines he’s also been much more discerning with his British placed runners, only running the cream of his crop over here.
I wonder if “the borg” are quite as discerning, and only back his British runners and leave his Irish ones alone? 😉
I doubt that is in Group races Judge, possibly overall. When you consider a strike rate of first time out maiden winners in Ireland at roughly 4% and he will normally run 2 or 3 in each maiden race then yes if you backed every AOB horse full stop in Ireland you would certainly be losing a few quid.
only running the cream of his crop over here.
Yes, I’m sure the same would apply to Mullins over the Jumps
I see Churchill is into 2nd fav.
Has the rain arrived at Ascot yet.
Has been raining all day in Taunton, I would think the more rain that lands would be a negative for Churchill, he was pulled from the Sussex but maybe that was because of the extreme goingGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
-£500 sounds quite bad but it’s pretty normal for a top class trainer over that period.
I think which explains how difficult it is for a punter to win against the bookies in the long run- you inevitably get ground down by the numbers- a trainer up +£45 over a five year period is considered a roaring success, while -£500 is considered normal. Backing all of Johnston’s runners over the same period would have given a minus of around £1300.
Looking at the figures the bookies have it nailed down to an exact science- no doubt they’ll be subtly shortening up the O’Brien’s UK runners even more next year- to strike back at “The Borg” whose spaceships are lined up 🙂
If you focused purely on obrien, and follow the general lay all of his first time outers and backed all of his british group runners youd make a nice profit by the sounds of it (this year anyway)
I dont know why you get so annoyed by who people back obrien lol, i read into every race until i find something i like i couldnt care if its obrien or dalgliesh lol, but after reading whoever posted about obriens uk group runners in future i may start at his runners and study out the way (in higher level races anyway)
What would his irish +/- be if you taken all of his first time outers, i wonder…
however you switch it to Ireland and he’s -£535.84. to the same stake. That’s a staggering difference. I would put this down to two factors, firstly that he’s had a lot more runners in Ireland, and also along similar lines he’s also been much more discerning with his British placed runners, only running the cream of his crop over here.I wonder if “the borg” are quite as discerning, and only back his British runners and leave his Irish ones alone? 😉
I doubt that is in Group races Judge, possibly overall. When you consider a strike rate of first time out maiden winners in Ireland at roughly 4% and he will normally run 2 or 3 in each maiden race then yes if you backed every AOB horse full stop in Ireland you would certainly be losing a few quid.
Yes I didn’t say in group races Botchy. And I’m sure you’re right. An even more discerning eye might be able to do even better, by reading market moves etc.
-£500 sounds quite bad but it’s pretty normal for a top class trainer over that period.
I think which explains how difficult it is for a punter to win against the bookies in the long run- you inevitably get ground down by the numbers- a trainer up +£45 over a five year period is considered a roaring success, while -£500 is considered normal. Backing all of Johnston’s runners over the same period would have given a minus of around £1300.
Looking at the figures the bookies have it nailed down to an exact science- no doubt they’ll be subtly shortening up the O’Brien’s UK runners even more next year- to strike back at “The Borg” whose spaceships are lined up 🙂
If you focused purely on obrien, and follow the general lay all of his first time outers and backed all of his british group runners youd make a nice profit by the sounds of it (this year anyway)
I dont know why you get so annoyed by who people back obrien lol, i read into every race until i find something i like i couldnt care if its obrien or dalgliesh lol, but after reading whoever posted about obriens uk group runners in future i may start at his runners and study out the way (in higher level races anyway)
What would his irish +/- be if you taken all of his first time outers, i wonder…
I wouldn’t say I get annoyed, but every other poster on here seems to be an O’Brien drone, and it gets a bit tedious ploughing through all the posts where they are explaining how they are backing one of his runners (just for a change)
Wheres the yawn emoji when you need it
For example every horse that sunspangled mentions is an O’brien horse, is that not tedious?
Surely a genuine horse racing fan should assess every runner objectively, not just focus on one trainer.
And Ham if you’re honest 90 percent of your tips on here are Ballydoyle horses, which is fair enough, it’s a free country, but posting but after reading whoever posted about obriens uk group runners in future i may start at his runners and study out the way (in higher level races anyway)
as if focusing on O’brien is a new development for you, don’t make me laugh.
according to the racing post O’Brien is +£45.16 to a £1 stake up on his british runners in the last five seasons.
+£45.16 – Qualify 50/1 = -£4.84
-£4.84 – Wings Of Eagles 40/1 = -£44.84I remember there was a time when the racing media said Brendan Powell was a trainer to follow at Fontwell because he had massive profit to a £1 stake. But that was also only due to a couple of big priced winners. When one or two winners makes the difference then it’s impossible to know whether that profit is meaningful in regards future betting.
Value Is Everything
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