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Ginger do you think Beat the bank will win mate? I might follow you in.
I’ve lost faith in my own assessments, unsurprisingly
Can’t really answer that question, Judge.
In my opinion Ribchester still has the best chance of winning, but as you know, it’s all about price/value for me.Ribchester @ 9/4 (30.8%) and Beat The Bank @ 9/2 (18.2%) makes it a combined price of a shade of odds against one of the pair winning. I’d say it should be a shade of odds-on. I believe it’s more like a fair 2/1 or 15/8 Ribchester and a fair 4/1 or 7/2 Beat The Bank. ie Currently I believe there’s a small amount of value in both, but a lot will depend on who actually turns up on Saturday. So if you’re thinking of backing Beat The Bank now, my advice is to wait until the day. If a lot of punters are thinking the same way as a lot on here would not surprise me one bit if Beat The Bank drifts out to an even better price. There’s Usually a shortening of Ballydoyle innmates on the day and Ribchester’s record (and hope of the North) will ensure he’ll have his supporters too.
Value Is EverythingI think Beat The Bank could drift on the day given how ‘The Lads’ like to get stuck into Churchill and Ribchester being a well-known and pretty solid favourite.
Agreed. Think there’s every chance of a bit of 11/2 or bigger popping up.
Cheers pal
It would slightly concern me though that his worse run this season came at Ascot. Some horses just don’t take to the place.Btw Steve’s description of O’brien supporters as being the borg made me laugh. I looked up the description of them on wiki:
The Borg are a vast collection of “drones”, or cybernetic organisms linked in a hive mind called “the Collective”, or “the Hive”. The Borg annex the technology and knowledge of other alien species to the Collective via a process of “assimilation”: forcibly transforming individual beings into drones by violently injecting microscopic machines, or nanoprobes, into their bodies and surgically augmenting them with cybernetic components.
Some don’t act at Ascot, Judge. But Balding is pretty straight and there was an excuse of a dirty scope. Also going was as firm as he’d encountered.
Wondered what Borg meant. Thought Steve was using a tennis term. :lol:
Value Is EverythingHere’s my take on the race.
Al Wukair is a horse I’ve always liked but may find a couple of these too good. Beat The Bank is priced up quite short for what he has achieved. However, I said to myself after his eye catching demolition job last time that I’d back him in his next group 1 as long as there wasn’t a proper high class horse in the field. For me, there is. Beat the Bank has to improve again here to get beat Ribchester who is a proven top quality Group 1 horse. He has taken on the top horses and has beaten them or run them close (a close second in this race to minding last season). I think the 9/4 on offer with Bet365 is huge. I think 6/4 favourite is a fairer price.
Beaten by the heavy ground last time, he is a better horse than Churchill I think (a doubt to run anyway). He’s better than Al Wukair I think. He’s most probably better than beat the Bank who still needs to improve yet again to get to the level of the Godolphin horse.
Ribchester @ 9/4
Wondered what Borg meant. Thought Steve was using a tennis term. 😆
I thought he was saying the old serve-volleyer was moving the markets with his short shorts millions.
Are we forgetting about Lightning Spear? Third in this race last year, possibly enormous each-way price.
Ei ei Beat The Bank and Here Comes When fans!
Ascot groundstaff currently making back-up plans with heavy ground possible.
Team Ribchester made a right horlicks of it at Goodwood, I’m not sure if it was by design or just a suicidal ride in those conditions to make the running and then kick on for home early but a more patient held together ride would of surely seen another victory, with that in mind I don’t see heavy being a total negative for Ribchester although it wouldn’t be ideal.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
The Borg are doing rather well 😀
” Aidan has had 131 runners in 74 Group races in the UK so far in 2017, winning 24 of them. Winners to runners, that’s a strike rate of 18.3 percent. Winners to races (and, let’s face it, you can only win each race with one horse) it’s a strike rate of 32.4 percent. Aidan wins one in every three races he contests.
You might think then that those 24 winners were more or less all short-priced favourites. Yet, on the contrary, nine of them started at 4/1 or longer. And six of them – 25 percent – were 8/1 or longer.
Some punters obviously didn’t think quite so much of their chances.
Of course, in many of the most prestigious races, Aidan often has multiple runners – Wings Of Eagles was one of six in the Epsom Derby, for instance. It used to be said that, when he saddles up a large squad, it’s a scatter gun approach, that none of them are particularly outstanding.If that was ever the case, it certainly isn’t now. Surely bettors should have realised the obvious truth: there are so many top-class horses in the yard these days that, when Aidan runs several in one race, pretty well all of them have a chance. There are very few no-hopers.
Indeed, if you’d had a £10 win bet on every single one of O’Brien’s 131 Group-race runners so far this year, you’d be £560 in profit.”
To put the figures into context, you invest £1310 quid to make £560 profit. ie £1310 on and £1870 back.
Another way of looking at it is putting £1310 on a 1/2 shot to get £655 profit. That is a better profit for the same investment.
If we take the 40/1 outlier Wings Of Eagles out of the stats, we get £1300 invested for a £160 profit. That is like putting £1300 on to get £1460 back. If I put the £1300 on a 1/7 favourite, I will get £1485.71 back and a superior profit.
Not really pant wetting stuff in my mind but the advantage of the Borg approach is that there is zero thinking required and no time wasted trying to work as an individual personality.
I do back O’Brien occasionally if I see value. I backed Kew Gardens recently, and I have done Saxon Warrior for the Arc at 50/1 and The Derby at 33/1. No doubt The Borg will all be whooping and hollering if the colt wins The Derby as 6/4 Fav
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
To put the figures into context, you invest £1310 quid to make £560 profit. ie £1310 on and £1870 back.
Another way of looking at it is putting £1310 on a 1/2 shot to get £655 profit. That is a better profit for the same investment.
If we take the 40/1 outlier Wings Of Eagles out of the stats, we get £1300 invested for a £160 profit. That is like putting £1300 on to get £1460 back. If I put the £1300 on a 1/7 favourite, I will get £1485.71 back and a superior profit.
Not really pant wetting stuff in my mind but the advantage of the Borg approach is that there is zero thinking required and no time wasted trying to work as an individual personality.
I do back O’Brien occasionally if I see value. I backed Kew Gardens recently, and I have done Saxon Warrior for the Arc at 50/1 and The Derby at 33/1. No doubt The Borg will all be whooping and hollering if the colt wins The Derby as 6/4 Fav
I agree taking out the 40/1 winner gives a better context, Steve; and suspect taking one other winner from the list would end up in a loss. But comparing it with a 1/7 shot imo does nothing for the “context”.
Getting back £1460 for £1300 investment is a profit of £160, that’s 12.3%.
Any gambler should be happy with that.
1/7 shot gets back more money, but there’s also a fair chance of getting back sweetfa – losing every penny of your £1300 investment. Where as there’s no chance of a zero return the other way.…And to give some context for odds on betting: The average 1/7 shot is poor value. So – in the long run – backing nothing else but long odds-on shots a punter has just as much chance of making a loss as any other type of investment.
EDIT: And… The punter backing all AOB runners would have inversted:
£30 on the 2000 Guineas and got back £25 (-£5) 3 runners and Churchill won @ 6/4
£30 on the 1000 Guineas and got back £100 (+70) 3 runners and Winter won @ 9/1
From that point onwards the punter would’ve always been in profit, using the money he/she had already won from the bookmaker to re-invest.So another way of looking at it is: The AOB system punter only invested £35 of his own money and got back £655. Profit of 1871.42% compared to just 14.2% of the 1/7 shot punter.
Value Is EverythingAlso to put that AOB profit in context:
AOB is on the verge of a World Record of Group 1 wins this year. So it’s highly likely a £10 stake would show a profit. Other years he has not been on course for that record and some years nowhere near it. So showing a profit this year is probably only a coincidence. Continuing to back all AOB runners next and future years will in all probability show a loss; especially as (after this season’s excellent record) punters are likely to over-bet and/or bookies shorten AOB’s runners. Therefore less money returned.Value Is EverythingIf you bet on 131 horses, you would expect, just on the laws of probability alone, to get one or two big price winners, that’s part of the gamble, not fair to say they don’t count after the event 😟
Sunspangled, can I ask you a question, if you see a horse that you like, but is trained by a different outfit to O’Brien, do you subconsciously dismiss it because it’s not a ballydoyle horse?
If you bet on 131 horses, you would expect, just on the laws of probability alone, to get one or two big price winners, that’s part of the gamble, not fair to say they don’t count after the event 😟
So what you’re saying is this relys on one or two big priced winners.
Yes, any system with 131 selections by the laws of probability may well have one or two big priced winners. But one or two coincidental big priced winners in a poor system can also transform a loss making system in to a profit making one. So you’ve got to look further to see if it is coincidental or not. One year’s profit means little…A punter who has on average 131 selections a year has 1310 bets in 10 years.
If that punter happens to show a profit in only one of two of those years (and an overall deficit) then that profitable one or two years does not mean he has a profitable system. There will be a fair share of outsiders in other years too, but it’s likely big priced winners will only come close enough together for a yearly profit just once or twice.
If profit came in the last of those 10 years then it is possible future years will show a profit, but in this case the past (and future shortening of prices available) makes future profit unlikely imo.However, if you are looking for a Group 1 AOB system, does seem his outsiders can be under-estimated by the markets.
Value Is Everything
It would slightly concern me though that his worse run this season came at Ascot. Some horses just don’t take to the place.
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