Punters Price Guide

[Formath]

Going off topic and waffling a bit now

Regarding VDW consistency from the last 3 outings of the first 5/6 in the betting forecast and looking at the two top-class races at Doncaster today, and the following is the difference that I use in my assessments now.

Doncaster 3.10
VDW indicates – 3 Wooton Bassett, 3 Murbeh, 4 Forjatt.
Formath indicates – 5 Wooton Bassett, 5 Murbeh, 5 Forjatt
Doncaster 3.45
VDW – 6 Eastern Aria, 7 Roses For The Lady, 10 Meznah
Formath – 4 Eastern Aria, 3 Dyna Waltz, 2 Rumoush

I don’t know if it proves anything but it interested me

[emian]

Going off topic and waffling a bit now

Regarding VDW consistency from the last 3 outings of the first 5/6 in the betting forecast and looking at the two top-class races at Doncaster today, and the following is the difference that I use in my assessments now.

Doncaster 3.10
VDW indicates – 3 Wooton Bassett, 3 Murbeh, 4 Forjatt.
Formath indicates – 5 Wooton Bassett, 5 Murbeh, 5 Forjatt
Doncaster 3.45
VDW – 6 Eastern Aria, 7 Roses For The Lady, 10 Meznah
Formath – 4 Eastern Aria, 3 Dyna Waltz, 2 Rumoush

I don’t know if it proves anything but it interested me

The results you got there (well done) backs up what I have always advocated. One must put their own spin on basic VDW methods. I do, but I’ve now gone further than that. I’m concentrating on h/caps of class 4 and above with just 5-6 runners. I’m sure you can see the logic there. It’s proving to be very successful.
Good Luck with

your

take on things.

[Formath]

Dnc 240 Sep 10

Just for EMIAN I have included an adjustment to my tissue of an over round of 115%, as forecast by the RP, and IMO this would be the rock –bottom price to bet at. Even then you are allowing the book an unfair advantage that has to be overcome in the long-term by good selection otherwise it is impossible to profit, providing that my compilation is correct, of course.

Doncaster 2.40 (my ratings priced to 100% with alongside adjusted odds for a 115% overround book in brackets))

1. 6/1 (5/1) Opinion Poll, looks a contender
2. 5/1 (4/1) Askar Tau, off track 135? C&D* Leading stayer 2009 won this race.
3. 7/1 (6/1) Darley Sun, progressive 2009
4. 11/2 (9/2) Dirar, D? Class? Won the Ebor but tougher today
5. 10/1 (17/2), course? D?
6. 40/1 (35/1), G? Class?
7. 9/1 (15/2) Samuel, course? Of interest
8. 14/1 (12/1)
9. 80/1 (80/1), mare versus males? D?
10. 9/1 (15/2) Motrice, weight? Filly versus males? Progressive

[emian]

Just for FORMATH I have approached this race with the method I’m using at present. I would not normally be interested in this race btw..

Don 2.40

Opinion Poll *** 87
Askar Tau (discretionary inclusion) ** 60+
Dirar ** 53
Electrolyser ** 53+
Samuel ** 60
Motrice – discarded
Rest of the field discarded.

I would say

Opinion Poll

is a good thing to at least place.
Good Luck.

[Formath]

Thought for the day, “Winter rides in on the tail of the last horse home in the ST Leger.”

Rewilding is hyped to be home and hosed today if you bet at a complete disadvantage. No obvious negative variables emerged except they have all got to get the D on the course (Lester Piggot when asked what was his favourite classic replied the St Leger….’because you get a longer ride!’).

For comparison:
Timeform goes Rewilding, Snow Fairy, Dandino
Massey goes Snow Fairy, Midas Touch, Joshua Tree

St Leger (my ratings priced to 100% with alongside a 115% book price in brackets)

1. 28/1 (25/1)
2. 20/1 (18/1)
3. 8/1 (13/2) Dandino,could go better at D.
4. 9/1 (8/1) Joshua Tree, D is of some concern.
5. 6/1 (5/1) Midas Touch, D should suit.
6. 11/4 (85/40) Rewilding, impressive and D should suit.
7. 60/1 (50/1)
8. 60/1 (50/1)
9. 28/1 (25/1)
10. 10/3 (11/4) Snow Fairy, filly versus males? Thereabouts

[Formath]

Ffos Las 4.30 (my ratings priced to 100% with alongside 109% book odds in brackets)

1. 50/1 (40/1), hcap mark? D? G?
2. 4/1 (7/2) Spirit Is Needed, was below best last time out
3. 7/2 (10/3) Lethal Glaze, course? Not on form last 2 outings
4. 7/2 (10/3) Sea Of Heartbreak, filly versus males? D? Progressive.
5. 7/1 (6/1)
6. 10/3 (3/1) Ferdoos, filly versus males? Good win on debut, could be useful

[Formath]

I have amended the pricing today by omitting the calculation from my ratings and including the Betfair 100% tissue and the advised RP 112% book tissue. This means that the odds are not synchronised with my ratings as an attempt to be realistic in my expectations but not easy. It will be interesting to see how it turns out – well I think so. The question is whether to dutch the two top-rated or possibly bet Zefooha? It is only a class 5 hcap on a Monday anyway. Hoping to gain enlightenment I took 3 other sources and these are their tips:

Columns are one4racing, Formcast, Timeform
3, 4, 4 = top-rated
5, 3, 5
1, 2, 3

Musselburgh 3.20 (Race Cloth No, my ratings with alongside the Betfair 100% tissue and then 112% RP forecast book tissue in brackets)

1. 6 20/1 (18/1), off track 118? Hcap mark?
2. 10 11/1 (10/1), D?
3. 15 9/2 (4/1) Park’s Prodigy, reliable and has a chance.
4. 15 7/2 (3/1) Zefooha, mare versus males? Shortlisted.
5. 21 4/1 (7/2) Cat O’Nine Tails, weight? Filly versus males? Well beaten last time but easier today.
6. 3 8/1 (7/1), form?
7. 5 16/1 (14/1), off track 113? Mare versus males?
8. 21 7/1 (6/1) Toshi, off track 367? D? Not to be discounted of this mark.

[emian]

I have amended the pricing today by omitting the calculation from my ratings and including the Betfair 100% tissue and the advised RP 112% book tissue. This means that the odds are not synchronised with my ratings as an attempt to be realistic in my expectations but not easy. It will be interesting to see how it turns out – well I think so. The question is whether to dutch the two top-rated or possibly bet Zefooha? It is only a class 5 hcap on a Monday anyway. Hoping to gain enlightenment I took 3 other sources and these are their tips:

Columns are one4racing, Formcast, Timeform
3, 4, 4 = top-rated
5, 3, 5
1, 2, 3

Musselburgh 3.20 (Race Cloth No, my ratings with alongside the Betfair 100% tissue and then 112% RP forecast book tissue in brackets)

1. 6 20/1 (18/1), off track 118? Hcap mark?
2. 10 11/1 (10/1), D?
3. 15 9/2 (4/1) Park’s Prodigy, reliable and has a chance.
4. 15 7/2 (3/1) Zefooha, mare versus males? Shortlisted.
5. 21 4/1 (7/2) [b:24cpwjsl]Cat O’Nine Tails[/color:24cpwjsl][/b:24cpwjsl][/size:24cpwjsl], weight? Filly versus males? Well beaten last time but easier today.
6. 3 8/1 (7/1), form?
7. 5 16/1 (14/1), off track 113? Mare versus males?
8. 21 7/1 (6/1) Toshi, off track 367? D? Not to be discounted of this mark.

That’s the one for me.
Should place for sure!

[Formath]

Just a sprint today and the ground may be Soft or softer, going by the rain here. Horseradish looks like it will be all the rage with just a couple of niggles for me with regard to proven speed and track fitness? None of them have proved particularly quick but the best 3 in order of merit are No’s 1, 4, 2.

In comparison other tips are:
Column headings – Cloth No, on4racing, Formcast, Timeform, Massey.

1. 2, 3, 2, 1 – 2nd rated Fathsta
2. 3, 0, 0, 0
3. 0, 0, 0, 2
4. 0, 0, 0, 0
5. 1, 1, 1, 3 – top-rated Horseradish
6. 0, 2, 3, 0

Haydock 4.00 (my ratings priced to 100% with alongside a 109% book tissue as advised by the RP)

1. 4/1 (7/2) Fathsta, strong traveller in good form
2. 6/1 (5/1), form?
3. 33/1 (28/1), G? Form?
4. 15/2 (7/1), course? Form?
5. 13/8 (11/8) Horseradish, off track 131? Relatively unexposed may have more to offer.
6. 15/2 (7/1), filly versus males? Form? Class?

[Formath]

An 8f listed contest where I could be wrong looking at the comments of leading pundits. Skysurfers has not got proven speed. Best by speed are No’s 1, 5, 2.

In comparison other tips:
Column headings – cloth No, one4racing, Formcast, Timeform, Massey

1. 3, 0, 0, 2
3. 0, 0, 0, 0
4. 1, 0, 0, 0
5. 0, 2, 0, 0
6. 0, 3, 1, 1 Riggins
7. 2, 1, 2, 3 Skysurfers

Sandown 4.05 (my ratings priced to 100% with alongside a 110% book tissue in brackets)

1. 10/3 (11/4) Bronze Cannon, off track 353? New yard, D may not suit
2. Non-runner
3. 12/1 (10/1)
4. 15/2 (13/2)
5. 2/1 (13/8) Penitent, off track 103? G? Class? Could bounce back.
6. 50/1 (40/1), class?
7. 4/1 (7/2) Skysurfers, a contender by all accounts.
8. Non-runner

[Formath]

I found this race a difficult one to call in the end. Northside Prince may have recorded a treble but he is not a proven fast runner. The best on overall time are No’s 2, 4, 1.

Other tips for comparison:
Col headings – cloth No, one4racing, Formcast, Timeform, Massey

1. 0,3, 0, 2
2. 0, 0, 1, 0
3. 3, 2, 3, 0 Plaisterer
4. 0, 0, 0, 0
5. 0, 0, 0, 3
6. 2, 0, 0, 0
7. 0, 0, 0, 0
8. 1, 1, 2, 1 Northside Prince

Ayr 4.20 (my ratings priced to 100% with alongside the 112% book tissue as advised by the RP)

1. 5/1 (9/2) Bencoolen, course? G? Will need to go well to win this.
2. 9/2 (7/2) Mirrored, form? Changed yards several times.
3. 9/2 (7/2) Plaisterer, mare versus males? Not totally out of it.
4. 60/1 (50/1), off track 159? Weight? D? Form?
5. 6/1 (5/1) Jutland, on a fair mark today
6. 9/1 (8/1), course/
7. 28/1 (25/1), hcap mark?
8. 9/2 (7/2) Northside Prince, last 2 wins over C&D

[Formath]

Not a very exciting class 2 3yo+ hcap where it looks like you pays your money and takes your pick. Sirvino is the proven fastest but has not been in form this season. High Office has progressed but not shown speed and may not have the class. Proven quickest in order of merit are No’s 1, 2, 3.

For comparison other pundits’ selections in order of merit:
One4racing 3, 8, 7
Formcast 6, 3, 8 (going best recently when I have checked)
Timeform 6, 1, 4
Massey 4, 5, 6

Pontefract 4.00 (my ratings priced to 100% with alongside a 112% tissue in brackets as advised by the RP)

1. 19 5/2 (9/4) Sirvino, course? Form? Was progressive 2009.
2. 16 4/1 (7/2) Just Lille, mare versus males? D? Form? Front runner
3. 14 6/1 (11/2) Fastnet Storm, front runner
4. 10 35/1 (33/1), hcap amrk? D? Class?
5. 10 35/1 (33/1), hcap mark? G? Form ? Draw?
6. 14 6/1 (11/2) High Office, Class? Draw? Progressive looks out to beat the handicapper.
7. 15 5/1 (9/2) Take It To The Max, G? Not been at best recently.
8. 10 35/1 (33/1)

[Formath]

I’ve never been a great fan of AW racing usually because I get it wrong, it must be said. In this class 3 3yo+ hcap. The Newmarket Gosden trained High Twelve will be supported on the strength of the yards form, but he’s not a proven quick runner. The proven faster runners in order of merit are No’s 3, 11, 9, 6.

Pundits selections in order of merit are:
One4racing 3, 6, 10
Formcast 2, 8, 6
Timeform 13, 8, 3
RPR 4, 3, 9

Wolverhampton (my ratings priced to 100% with alongside 119.5% tissue in brackets as advised by the RP)

1. 8 18/1 (14/1), hcap mark? Form?
2. 9 15/1 12/1), form?
3. 24 9/2 (7/2) Red Somerset, not beyond him tonight
4. 16 15/2 (6/1) Good Again, filly-v-males? Form? Won 3 in 2009
5. 11 12/1 (10/1), off track 111? Hcap mark?
6. 9 15/1 (12/1)
7. 7 20/1 (16/1)
8. 12 11/1 (17/2) High Twelve, yard in good form.
9. 10 13/1 (11/1), D? Form?
10. 11 12/1 (10/1)
11. 11 12/1 (10/1), course? Form? Class?
12. 2 125/1 (100/1), hcap mark? Form? Class?
13. 11 12/1 (10/1), class?

[Formath]

Ascot 3.45 A listed fillies stakes and 4 defections already so I have swerved making my own assessment.

This is how some pundits select in order of merit:

one4racing 13, 5, 1
Formcast 12 14 5
Timeform 9, 13, 5
Massey 1, 5, 6

Looks like a betting nightmare IMO. Formcast has the best dutching record in the races I have checked recently so a fiver each on Shimmering Surf and Warling would provide an interest, Polly’s Mark will probably be less value.

[Formath]

A top class contest to enjoy. In my experience speed is the clincher to form at this level and the proven runners are No’s 2, 6, 5, 7, 4

Other pundits’ selections for comparison in order of merit:
One4racing 2, 7, 1
Formcast 6, 2, 7
Timeform 2, 6, 7
Massey 7, 2, 4

Ascot 4.15 (my ratings priced to 100% with alongside in brackets an adjusted 112% book tissue)

1. 7 20/1 (16/1)
2. 29 9/4 (15/8) Rip Van Winkle, won this 2009
3. 6 28/1 (25/1), course?
4. 14+ 13/2 (6/1) Beethoven, looks to have a place chance.
5. 11 10/1 (17/2)
6. 24 3/1 (5/2) Makfi, course? G? High class miler.
7. 14 13/2 (6/1) Poet’s Voice, improver that was a smart 2yo
8. 4 80/1 (80/1), D?

[Formath]

A Gp 2 Class 1 sprint so speed should take it given luck in running IMO. Proven fast runners most of them but these are best No’s 1, 2, 3, 10, 12

Ascot 4.15 (my ratings priced to 100% with alongside in brackets a book tissue of 119.5%)

1. 26 4/1 (10/3) Kingsgate Native, course? Form? Has to be on a going day
2. 23 5/1 (4/1) Dalghar, course? Smart French contender
3. 17 8/1 (13/2) Himalya, G? Has looked an awkward ride.
4. 10 20/1 (18/1)
5. Non-runner
6. 10 20/1 (18/1), form? Class?
7. 11 16/1 (14/1), D?
8. 17 8/1 (13/2) Sayif, off track 99? Won this race 2009, debut for Stoute yard
9. 11 16/1 (14/1)
10. 12 14/1 (12/), course? Form? Filly-v-males?
11. Non-runner
12. 18 7/1 (6/1) Lady Of The Desert, filly-v-males? Progressive, could be more to come
13. 6 100/1 (80/1), G? Filly-v-males?

[Formath]

Leicester 4.40 (My form ratings priced to 100% with alongside a possible book tissue of 113% in brackets)

A not too exciting race in a dull racing day IMO the best being a class 3 3yo+ fillies stakes over 8f on GS. Fillies are ever capricious but over the D speed should be a critical factor and the two proven fast runners are No’s 3 & 7.

1. Non-runner
2. 5 60/1 (60/1), weight-change?
3. 13 6/1 (11/2) Super Sleuth, off track118? D suits needs some improvement
4. 10 10/1 (17/2), class?
5. 10 10/1 (17/2), course?
6. 20 3/1 (5/2) Decorative, well regarded smart prospect.
7. 24 9/4 (15/8) Long Lashes, G? Has class but latest run disappointing.
8. 6 33/1 (28/1)
9. 8 15/1 (13/1)

[Author]

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