Punters Price Guide

[Formath]

Todays race is one where the pundits opinion diverges so I will have to stick with mine and you will have to make your own mind up Adrian Massey (Cape Secret), PatternForm (Nobelix) Formcast (Double Doors):

95/40 Chocolate Caramel, big run expected (RPR odds 9/2)
5/2 Double Doors, not won on the AW but progressive, visor today (RPR 9/2)
5/1 Cold Turkey, C&D6 but off track a year, market for guidance (RPR 95/40)
11/2 Eva Soneva So Fast, goes better on polytrack (RPR 60/1)
7/1 Torrens (RPR 15/2)
11/1 Nobelix (RPR 16/1)
11/1 Honduras (RPR 9/2)
60/1 Cape Secret (RPR 15/2)

[Formath]

No comparisons today as 2 races are posted, a sort of transition from the Flat to the jumping season.

Leic 3.40 Oct 16

11/8 Lady Gloria, looks difficult to beat
7/2 Sudoor, probably better on faster ground
7/2 Turban Heights, impressive C&D 2 months ago
15/2 Marzelline
15/2 Chantilly Tiffany
25/1 Little Darlin
50/1 Tokyo Jo

Hun 4.30

10/11 That Look, won debut chase here in Aug over 21f
9/2 Almizan, should be held by That Look
9/2 Arnold Layne, may be progressive, new yard
11/2 Thirty Five Black, a novicy novice
12/1 Nikola
25/1 Ice And Soda

You wouldn’t believe the effort that goes into these assessments, ignore my prices if you choose but do take note of the comments

[Formath]

YOU GUYS! I know there are a few discerning punters out there who read this thread, just reticent at making any comment, that’s all

Wetherby 3.45 Oct 17

11/4 Arctic Ghost, has the ability if fit, off track 197 days?
3/1 Mandingo Chief, won this race last year
9/2 Dumadic, can be competetive, off track 152 days?
5/1 Tighe Caster, has been struggling
17/2 Silver Knight
11/1 Manbow
15/1 Scots Grey
22/1 Briscoe Place
66/1 Snowy
66/1 Possextown

Just a reminder, the odds listed are my opinion of a realistic price after filtering each runner through 9 critical factors, rating them and converting to a percentage chance and adding an increment to allow for the book margin. Please yourself lol.[/color:23p4w6h2]

[Formath]

Nottingham Oct 18

13/8 Highland Legacy, improver with obvious claims
95/40 Market Forces, improver that could go well
7/2 Aphorism, improver but tougher test today
7/1 Mister Completely
9/1 Sphinx
40/1 Winges D’Argent

[Formath]

Perhaps it’s just my way of working but I found this race very difficult today, let’s put it down to this point of the season.

Cheltenham 4.05 Oct 19

9/2 Boychuk, OK if the going holds up
9/2 Nice Try, improver and may be more to come, 209 days off track?
11/2 Always Waining, recent form gives him a chance
11/2 Ardaghey, C&D this meeting last season, 265 days off track?
11/2 Bubble Boy, out of class here
13/2 Mr Pointment, has won first time out last 3 seasons, 251 days off track?
13/2 Commercial Flyer, significant betting would be an indicator, 220 days off track?
18/1 Joaaci, has plenty to prove
35/1 Keenan’s Future, vulnerable in this grade

[moehat]

really fancy Always Waining, and also Cape Greko in the 3.30…

[Formath]

Late posting so just for interest really: –

Newmarket 3.15 Oct 20

9/2 Notnowcato, sets the standard
5/1 Multidimensional, was injured so big test this
11/2 Literato, could well make a bold bid
13/2 Creachadoir, slight concern over distance and going

[Formath]

Kempton 3.25 Oct 21

7/4 Deep Purple, open to further progress
7/2 French Opera, recent form better than most here
9/2 Alsadaa, may not be good enough
5/1 Zamboozle, fluent hurdler but stiff opposition today
9/1 Another Bottle
11/1 Zero
14/1 Hansomelle
60/1 Irish Toast

[Formath]

Pontefract 3.40 Oct 22

7/4 Latin Lad, could go close, D?
3/1, Let Us Prey, merits respect but well exposed
4/1 Bazergan, improver but never won, D?
9/2 Alan Devonshire, improver but needs more, D?
6/1 Siberian Tiger, needs major improvement
40/1 Bold Choice, a lot to find, D?

[Formath]

Exeter 4.40 Oct 23

9/4 Liberty Ben, well suited here
4/1 Avesomeofthat, stiffer track today, D?
9/2 Storm Of Applause, fast ground hurdler,D?
9/2 Manly Money, well handicapped, jumping is a concern
13/2 Seafield Bogie, can be taken on
13/2 Beluga, G?
40/1 Cossack Dancer

[Formath]

Took me all of 15 minutes to assess this race manually . Filtered through 9 critical factors, valued and priced:

Folkestone 3.50 Oct 24

5/4 Free Gift, likely to be thereabouts on recent form
5/4 Croix De Guerre, not won in 15 outings but yard going well and looks well handicapped.
4/1 Mr Boo, may need a couple of runs, up 12lbs, 180 days off track?
33/1 Stance, never won over D as far? 344 days off track?

[Formath]

Mine is a disciplined, structured method although more an art than a science and has no merit other than it is my considered opinion .

Carlisle 2.40 Oct 25

3/1 Glingerbank, should go well, Richards/Dobbin combo
7/2 The Entomologist, jumping needs to improve
8/1 Calculaite, debut chase for a progressive hurdler, 177 days off track?
8/1 Tous Chez, fair hurdler but more needed
10/1 Kentucky Blue, last won over hdles Feb 04, 201 days off track?
10/1 John Forbes, chasing debut, best on soft
10/1 Water Taxi, improved needed to win this

[Formath]

This is the one race that I have assessed today from the usual level of Monday racing. You might query why post in this thread rather than the ‘basic VDW’ thread. You probably couldn’t care less but I will tell you any way.
The VDW methodology is a strategy to narrow the field to a shortlist from past performance by filtering some of the runners through not more than 6 filters. Then by conjecture (intelligent reasoning = opinion ) concluding whether there is a winner in the race.
My process is to filter every runner through up to 12 factors including the possible performance owing to the race conditions. These are then rated, valued and priced providing an independent view of betting possibilities. Opinion I grant you, but hopefully informed opinion

Catterick 3.00 Oct 30

9/2 King Harson, not won this season but good draw and dropped in weight
13/2 Nuit Sombre, LTO beat King Harson over C&D, mid-field draw
15/2 Il Castagno, may not be quite good enough, mid-field draw
8/1 Crocodile Bay, well drawn and a possible for the shake-up
17/2 Il Castagno, should go well over the trip and cannot be ruled out entirely, mid-field draw

[class tells]

can you confirm the vdw filters formath these are the ones i use.consistency rating,ability rating,coconut seller type rating, class of race lto,topspeed last three times out ajusted to todays weight,rpr last three times out,ajusted to todays weight,distance yes or no, bought your book yesterday win with staking stategy looks like i maybe going to dutch with a staking plan use the vdw abc method 2pts win A 2pts b /2pts b 1pt c increase after a loser picked out a race at newmarket on friday just wait and see if its on

[Formath]

class tells,

The filters that VDW used to narrow the field to a shortlist before subjecting runners to other considerations were:

1. First 5/6 in the betting f/c for non-hcaps/hcaps + any outside this range with GOOD consistent form.
2. Top 4 on £ Class prize money/wins – or for races lacking this factor, top 4 best ever unadjusted speed figure. This was varied at times on the Flat for example in the assessment of the 1982 2,000 Gns where there were 3 ‘time merit’ columns – top 3 best ever unadjusted ratings, same ratings weight adjusted, finally Split Second’s adjusted SF.
3. 3 most consistent from 1. above plus in addition any other/s outside this range from – each runner with one of last two placings 1 to 4, 5 most recent runs from these, then 3 most consistent from the 5.
4. Top 3 rating figures, including joint ratings, from two rating different rating sources (D. Mail Formcast & RPR will cover this) employed for comparison to confirm the shortlist from 1 to 3 above.

So from the above list you could have 6 filters, more or less, for a race. Then you had to ‘study the form of all concerned – taking a particular note of the class in which they ran, the courses they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by and most important how they performed in the later stages of each race.’

One factor missing from the above is weight carried, which VDW also used to consider.

That’s the best explanation I can give and I trust it answers your query.

[Formath]

Huntingdon 3.00 Oct 31

11/4 New Time, dropped 15lbs, LTO 1/12 +.75L, prominent led held on gamely. Possible breathing problems earlier, won here over hurdles after a 4 month break, looks short on class. O’Neill/McCoy combo
9/2 Otantique, up 7lbs, LTO 1/6 +3.5L, headway led easily. A leading player
11/2 L’Oiseau, dropped 8lbs, LTO 1/12 +7L, headway led stayed on strongly. One to consider
11/2 Vivid Imagination, up 1lb, LTO 3/6 -15L, not fluent ridden & weakening. Well handicapped but stamina is a concern
13/2 Own Line, dropped 10lbs, LTO 2/9 -1L, ridden headed kept on same pace. 2nd here last time but no better

[Formath]

Wetherby 3.25 Nov 2

9/4 Mister McGoldrick, something of a course specialist C4 and well handicapped, 181 days off track?
3/1 Borora, dependable and race fit could go well
7/2 Coat Of Honour, could show
5/1 Three Mirrors, CD2 and may have more to offer, off track 196 days?
17/2 College Girl (dropped 29lbs)
22/1 Lankawi
66/1 Art Virginia

[Author]

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