Punters Price Guide

[Formath]

Back to where I feel comfortable assessing a race in detail and coming to my own conclusions .

Kelso 2.20 a class 3 hcap chase over 22.5f on soft, which looks a reasonable contest. My form ratings converted to a fair odds 100% tissue and those out to 7/1 may be considered IMO. Timeform goes No’s 4, 7, 3 so I may not be far away. The forecast over-round is 112% if you wish to take that into account to adjust my prices.

1. 8/1
2. 8/1
3. 11/1 weight-change? Mare v males?
4. 4/1 Always right, off track 124? LTO keen hit 13th/3rd chased no impression -2.7L 2/10, prolific winning pointer goes well fresh.
5. 66/1 of track 101?
6. 9/1
7. 11/2 Camden George, LTO not fluent headway ridden chased stayed on -.5L 2/15, has been quirky and unreliable.
8. 6/1 Lockstown, LTO ridden dropped to rear left alone 3 out won, lucky to win, cheekpieces tried.

[Formath]

Newbury 2.25 a class 4 nov hurdle over 24.5f on soft side of good, and may be trickier than at first glance. The market may come for Minella Stars but Nicholls also fields the classier Tricky Trickster, IMO an open contest where anything out to 6/1 may be considered. My ratings priced to 100% with the forecast over-round being 110.5%.

1. 6/1 Minella Stars, LTO challenged led driven out won +2.75L 1/11, comfortable win first time out
2. 9/2 Our Island, LTO headway headed rallied stayed on strongly won +hd 1/10, could be more to come
3. 5/1 Railway Dillon, hcap mark? LTO not fluent led ridden stayed on under pressure hard ridden won +.5L 1/16, could progress.
4. 80/1 off track 1034?
5. 7/1
6. 11/2 Russian Song, LTO lost place well behind went 3rd no impression -21L 3/10, has work cut out today.
7. 7/2 Tricky Trickster, off track 97? LTO never travelling mistake driven PU, something to prove hurdling (is it a prep race for the Grand National?)

[Formath]

Ascot 3.00 a grade 1 chase over 21.5f on GS and a fine race to watch but not to bet in IMO. Speed mostly counts at this level in which case the proven fast runners, omitting No 5, are No’s 6, 7, 3. My ratings priced to 100% and the forecast over-round is 110.5% any out to 6/1 may be considered but Riverside Theatre looks a solid favourite and could be a warm order where Timeform go Riverside Theatre, Tartak, Pride of Dulcote:

1. 20/1, off track 84? Weight-change?
2. 11/2 Deep Purple, LTO led headed lost touch hampered U, lacks consistency (Williams/Maloney 2nd best combo)
3. 6/1 Gauvain, course? LTO behind hampered weakened -30L 5/9, D may not suit?
4. 11/2 Pride Of Dulcote, LTO made all narrow lead stayed on gamely won +hd ¼, has potential.
5. 60/1, weight-change? Form?
6. 5/2 Riverside Theatre, LTO held up mistake outpaced ridden stayed on for 2nd -12L 2/9, the one to beat (Henderson/Geraghty best combo)
7. 5/1 Tartak, LTO held up headway ridden kept on won +.75L 1/15, not out of it

[Formath]

Kempton 3.55 a class 4 4yo + hcap over 8f on standard. This is the best I could find today the way I approach race assessment and I have never been successful on the artificial surface tracks. I have tried to analyse why and it may be because they race against each other so often that you have to catch them on a going day when they are fit. In this race 7/10 runners are C&D winners. So if you don’t mind fillies then the obvious choice has to be the progressive in-form Chilli Green. Timeform goes Chilli Green, Lockantanks, Den’s Gift. My ratings priced to 100% with the forecast over-round at 115%.

1. 17/2 Den’s Gift, off track 288? Form? LTO led soon clear headed no extra -3.5L 8/11, looks high in the hcap.
2. 4/1 Chilli Green, filly v males? Hcap mark? LTO keen tracked lead led ran on comfortably won here +1.75L 1/10, progressive and in form
3. 18/1
4. 17/2 Gallantry, hcap mark? LTO ridden never reached leaders -8L 6/8, D suits.
5. 60/1, form?
6. 17/2 Samarinda, LTO led ridden headed weakened -3.5L 4/8, not at this level.
7. 28/1, going ? Form?
8. 17/2 Lockantanks, class? LTO in rear headway quickened ran on readily won +2.25L 1/8, of interest.
9. 3/1 Highly Regal, LTO ridden led soon clear tiring caught –shd 2/10, looks a contender off this mark.
10. 60/1, off track 474? Course? D? Form? Class?

[Formath]

Carlisle 3.40 a class 3 hcap chase over 28f on heavy going, which means it will be critical to stay the distance on the going carrying the weight. Timeform agree with me more or less and go Overlady, Victory Gunner, Star Player the same three possibles. My ratings priced to 100% with the forecast over-round being 113.5%.

1. 11/2 Star Player, LTO held up led soon clear ridden eased won +22L 1/7, a stayer
2. 28/1, weight-change? Form?
3. 13/1
4. 60/1, off track 68?
5. 3/1 Victory Gunner, D? LTO led ridden drifted jumped right stayed on won +2L 1/8, has claims.
6. 9/2 Overlady, mare v males? LTO prominent weakened tailed off PU, won this last time race was run in 2009.
7. 10/1, off track 101? D? Form?
8. 17/2, mare v males? Course?
9. 17/2, D?

[Formath]

Taunton 3.40 a class 2 hcap hurdle over 17f on soft, not my favourite type of race although this looks a good one on paper. Four of them have a weight-change advantage but it may no be so critical over this shorter trip on a tight track IMO. Timeform go Iolith, Ciceron, Organisateur, which looks about right. My ratings priced to 100% with a forecast over-round of 110.5%.

1. 10/3 Organisateur, hcap mark? LTO in rear blundered struggling tailed off 13/14, improver with inexperienced 10lb claimer up to reduce weight burden.
2. 9/1 off track 101? G?
3. 11/2 Ciceron, LTO held up headway driven to lead kept on under pressure won +hd 1/7, proven on G.
4. 4/1 Iolith, LTO intouch headway led in command ridden clear won +7L 1/14, harder today in a hcap at this mark.
5. 9/2 Spear Thistle, D? Class? LTO led headed led headed weakened -5L 2/7, goes on S.
6. 9/1, D?
7. 40/1, G?

[Formath]

Doncaster 3.40 a class 2 hcap chase over 24f on GS or softer. IMO these aged runners are not class 2 and never have been. The four at the bottom of the card look favoured by the weight over the D IMO, although Timeform disagree and go Wogan, Brooklyn Brownie, Briery Fox possibly on class. My ratings priced to 100% with a forecast over-round of 112%, where any out to 7/1 may be considered.

1. 9/2 Brooklyn Brownie, hcap mark? LTO in touch ridden weakened -27L 6/17, prefers better G.
2. 9/4 Wogan, off track 95? LTO driven lost place ridden kept on under pressure -15L 3/8, predefrs better G. (Henderson noted)
3. 40/1
4. 22/1
5. 14/1, course?
6. 11/2 Il Duce, D? LTO mid division weakened PU, something to prove. (King/Thornton best combo)
7. 40/1, off track 241? Weight-change? Form?
8. 4/1 Dark Ben, LTO jumped well made all clear ridden out won +4.5L 1/8, in form

[Formath]

Searching for a method to avoid the labour of making my own race assessments I thought why not try the old idea of a consensus of professionals for a punters book. The result for the the Racing Post Chase at Kempton today comes out as:

Kempton 3.00 (My odds calculated from charting 5 pundits ratings)

Fistral Beach 7/2 stake £30 (to win at least £100)
Nacarat 5/1 stake £20
Razor Royale 7/1 stake £15
Hey Big Spender 9/1 stake £12

Can it be as easy as this

[Formath]

Reverted back to doing my own assessment and rating today and almost wished I hadn’t, but negative info can be a good thing if it stops you losing money

Plumpton 3.50 a class 4 hcap chase over 19f on soft, and a hopeless contest for making a betting decision IMO. The overall form is not good and not much in the weights so perhaps speed might be critical over this shorter D? The proven speed performers are No’s 6, 1, 5, 3. My ratings priced to 100% with the forecast over-round given as 109%.

1. 7/1
2. 40/1, weight-change? Form?
3. 7/2 Owner Occupier, course? LTO led not fluent headed held -1.25L 2/7, jumped better last time out.
4. 9/2 Sumdancer, form? LTO hit 4th ridden outpaced weakened tailed off PU, won this last year.
5. 11/4 She’s Humble, mare v males? LTO pressed lead lost 2nd weakened struggling tailed off -28L 7/7, best effort was in January.
6. 9/2 The Hardy Boy, LTO chased lead lost place plugged on -25L 4/10, in decline for some time.

[randburger]

Hi Formath,

I have read alot of your posts and found them highly interesting and very informative. I have one question and really hope you dont mind me asking.

In one of your posts you quote ‘My odds tissue is arrived at after compiling a form rating by filtering each runner through 8 factors that have historically proved critical in selecting winners.’

Im keen to learn a lot more regarding creating tissue, and compiling form ratings. I was hoping you could explain to me what the 8 factors are that you consider and how the form rating is calculated and transformed into a tissue.

Im really trying to learn as much as I can in these areas and would be extremely grateful if you could explain these to me.

Kind regards,

Ian.

[Formath]

randburger,

The factors I use generally revolve around the list identified by Professor Frank George who wote, "the following factors are of influence in determining the winner."

(1) Class of horse.
(2) Weight.
(3) Time.
(4) Recent Form.
(5) Distance
(6) The Odds.
(7) The Going.
(8) The Jockey.
(9) The Draw.
(10) Stable strategy.

I tabulate every race that I am ineterested in into a chart with factors from the above in columns. I then score the columns by merit as I judge fit to obtain a final score as a past performance (form) rating for each runner.

Each individual rating is then converted into a percentage and on into fractional odds providing a ‘fair odds’ 100% tissue for the race. The difficulty in deciding ‘realistic’ odds comes from interpreting how the runners may mmet the new race requirements – course, trainer/jockey combo, going etc.

(PM me with an email address if you like and I will provide some detailed information for you to work on).

[randburger]

Formath,

Thank you for your reply.

Im really keen to learn and read as much as possible, so, if you could send me some info it will be much appreciated.

I have sent you a pm with my e-mail address.

Thanks again,

Ian.

[randburger]

Hi Formath,

Thank you for sending me the file.. very interesting.

I have sent you an e-mail with a question, hope you dont mind.

Cheers.

[Formath]

I’ve been slumming over in ‘systems’ faffing about with Van der Wheil but I am never comfortable with system rules so here I am back in my spiritual home .

Stratford 3.40 a class 3 hcap chase over 23f on good going and not a race to put your mortgage on. Any runner out to 6/1 may be considered IMO. My ratings priced to a ‘fair’ odds book of 100% and the RP forecast over-round is 110.5%:

1. 4 16/1, weight-change?
2. 2 50/1, off track 63? Hcap mark?
3. 18 2/1 Sultan Fontenaille, LTO mid division headway hit 4 out effort soon ridden kept on same pace no impression 115L 3/9, consistent, blinkered today
4. 7 15/2, off track 66?
5. 11 4/1 Tisfreetdream, LTO with leaders led blundered weakened -47L 8/9, of limited appeal
6. 8 6/1 Royal Kicks, LTO mid division ridden struggling no chance tailed off 5/18, struggling.
7. 7 15/2, weight-change? (many race readers indicate he is well in at the weights, but not in my book)

[Formath]

Cheltenham Tuesday
Not got as far as pricing but these ar in the frawme by form and current market:

13.30 11, 2, 13
14.05 4, 3, 1
14.40 8,11, 4
15.20 6, 4, 10
16.00 1, 6, 8
16.40 4, 3, 6
17.15 11, 4, 2

[Formath]

Cheltenham 3.20 The champion hurdle over 16.5f on GS. The fast runners usually prevail at this level and those proven are No’s 5, 9, 4, 10, 7. All runners out to 10/1 may be considered. My ratings converted to a 100% book with the RP forecast over-round 116.5%:

1. 6 60/1, course?
2. 7 33/1, off track 94? Class?
3. 11 9/1
4. 15 11/2 Hurricane Fly, LTO tracking challenged led ridden comfortably won +3.5L 1/5, looks a major player
5. 16 5/1 Khyber Kim, LTO held up headway soon ridden outpaced well held -13L 4/6, 9 now but was 2nd last year
6. 12 8/1 Menorah, off track 94? LTO held up headway quickened in command won +4.5L 1/9, progressive
7. 10 12/1
8. 10 12/1, class?
9. 12 8/1 Overturn, LTO led headed soon ridden weakened -48L 5/5, looks tough task today
10. 13 7/1 Peddlers Cross, tracked led went 2nd challenged led ridden stayed on well won +11L 1/9, may need some improvement.
11. 7 33/1, D?

[Formath]

Cheltenham Champion Chase
My ratings converted to a 100% book with the RP forecast over-round 116.5%. Faster runners should prevail and proven are No’s 8, 1, 11, 9.

1. 20 4/1 Big Zeb, won this last year
2. 10 12/1, off track 77
3. 8 18/1, course?
4. 9 14/1
5. 13 15/2 Golden Silver, course, has not run well here.
6. 5 80/1
7. 5 80/1, course?
8. 18 9/2 Master Minded, good form but drying ground may not suit.
9. 12 17/2
10. 7 25/1
11. 14 7/1 Woolcombe Folly, offtrack 95? Improver

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