Punters Price Guide

[Formath]

I have swerved the Kauto Star contest in view of the price and will leave him to run his race

Kempton 2.25 A class 1 hurdle over the minimum trip on going forecast the soft side of good. Speed should be critical over this trip IMO in which case the proven performers in order of merit are No’s 4, 1, 5. A 6 runner field so anything out to 5/1 ought to be considered IMO. I have listed my form rating from which the tissue is compiled:

1. 21 13/8 Binocular, C&D, LTO weakened -7L 3rd. Could win if wound up for this.
2. 4 50/1
3. 8 17/2 C&D, off track 98?
4. 18 9/4 Khyber Kim, off track 280? LTO drew clear +5L won. Goes well fresh. Said to have been laid out for this.
5. 14 10/3 Overturn, offtrack 180? LTO comfortably +6L won. A top handicapper.
6. 11 5/1 Starluck, C&D, LTO held -1.75L 2nd. Could certainly show.

[Formath]

Sunday stuff and not brilliant from the point of view of class. The race I opted for has plenty of negatives, heavy going, weight increase, time off track, no course form – all in all I should have stayed and watched the Brum/Villa match

Ffos Las 3.15 A class 3 hcap chase over 24f on heavyish going. They have to get the distance carrying the weight and looking at my chart those in the top half of the field may have a problem. Sweden will probably be a popular selection at the weights on his hcap debut but i have to say Sporting Rebel looks an each-way shot IMO being in form and enjoying the trip. However, all those out to 7/1 could be in with a shout.

1. 17/2, hcap mark?
2. 5/1 Tamadot, off track 700? LTO weakened -17L 4/5, market should be the indicator.
3. 66/1
4. 17/2
5. 11/4 Sporting Rebel, off track 61? LTO rallied -18L 3/7, was in form and D suits.
6. 8/1, off track 324?
7. Non-runner
8. 9/2 Sweden, off track 72? LTO one-paced -18L 5/8, has a weight advantage for his hcap debut.

[Formath]

Not a good day for punter’s like myself it would appear. More a case of just keeping my hand in at assessment

Southwell 3.00 A class 4 hcap hurdle over 24.5f on going forecst the soft side of good. Getting the D on the G at the weight looks to be critical and half the field ae up in weight. Hcap hurdle races are difficult to assess at the best of time and with the level of ability today is even harder in my opinion. Lackamon impressed last time but there are a couple of C&D winners at the bottom of the weights that could compete. In fact anything out to 10/1 could be in with a shout IMO.

1. 7/1 Master Eddy, off track 298? weight? LTO driven out +1L 1/17, wait for the spring with this one.
2. 10/1 Bring On The Judge, off track 71? Weight? LTO hung L mistakes 0ne-paced -4L 3/4, hcap debut.
3. 9/2 Lackamon, weight? LTO won very easily +14L 1/8. Did win well.
4. 20/1, hcap mark?
5. 15/1, off track 75? Weight?
6. 60/1
7. 12/1
8. 20/1, hcap mark?
9. 33/1, weight?
10. Non-runner
11. 11/2 Tora Bora, C&D, LTO weakened -36L 9/11, not without a chance
12. 6/1 Wor Rom, C&D, LTO one-paced -6L 3/15, shortlisted today

[Formath]

I am afraid I’m doing a cop out again today in that I seldom have any interest in races with strong favourites, note how i swerved Kauto Star

Newbury 3.50 A class 3 hcap chase over 24f on the heavy side of soft so like yesterday we are looking for D winners that can get the D carrying the weight. Bottom weight Sona Safta will be a warm order after an easy win 9 days ago. Swerving that one and looking for each-way chances those out to 10/1 ought to be considered IMO. No’s 6 & 10 fit by my assessment but one has weight and the other no form this season. I have not got a clue to be honest, perhaps something shortening in the market from No’s 2, 4, 5?

1. 18/1, weight?
2. 11/1
3. 13/1, off track 67? Weigfht?
4. 11/1, off track 78?
5. 11/1, weight? C&D*
6. 8/1 Quattrocento, weight? LTO chased no impression, 16L 2/13, possible show?
7. 18/1, (O’Neill/McCoy best combo)
8. 66/1, off track 198?
9. 13/1, off track 281? (King 3rd best)
10. 6/1 Bertie May, LTO weakened PU, was an improver last winter.
11. 10/3 Sona Sasta, LTO won very easily +18L 1/9, was a runaway winner (Pipe 2nd best)(not a fast horse, does it matter today?)

[Formath]

Taunton 3.30 A class 2 hcap hurdle over 17f on going the soft side of good. Looks a tight race on paper and a toss-up whether weight or speed is going to be critical. Anything going off at 6/1 or shorter should be considered IMO:

1. 13/2, C&D*, (Nicholls 2nd best)
2. 5/1 Tito Bustillo, C&D*, off track 75? Weight? LTO chased no impression -6L 2/10, could prevail if weight is not a problem (Nicholls best).
3. 35/1, off track 62?
4. 3/1 Dona, C&D,LTO led bumped kept on well won +1.25L 1/14, in form progressive (King/Thornton best combo).
5. 5/1 Karasenir, LTO weakened -9L 5/11, hcap debut was OK but more required.
6. 5/1 Ciceron, LTO outpaced no extra -16L 4/4, G may not suit.
7. 13/2, off track 75? Weight advantage*.

[Formath]

Just a potboiler for me today in view of all the turf cancellations

Wolverhampton 6.35 A class 4 3yo hcap over 7f on standard. Looks a tight hcap again. However, anyone who has read Jim Adams ‘Sprint Handicapping Explained’ may have an interest in Swimsuit, because he wrote even ounces matter . Any runner out to 5/1 can be considered IMO so a fairly open contest.

1. 14/1
2. 5/2 Ill Batista,LTO just kept on -.5L 2/6. D suits surface may not.
3. 5/1 Silver Turn, filly v males? LTO led won easily +2L 1/4, possible improver.
4. 4/1 Acclamazing, C&D*, LTO led close home +.5L 1/8, progressive.
5. 5/2 Swimsuit, filly v males? LTO weakened -3L 4/4, has a chance.
6. 28/1, filly v males?

[Formath]

My choice today looks a 2-horse contest on paper with one proven at the D and the other with a turn of foot.

Ascot 1.50 A class 1 mares hurdle over 24f on going the soft side of good. My tissue is priced to 100%.

1. 9/4 Carole’s Lgacy, LTO headed rallied headed -.75L 2/15, proven at the D and sets the standard here today.
2. 11/1
3. 9/1
4. 11/1, off tack 77?
5. 50/1
6. 3/1 L’accordioniste, LTO rdn led kept on won +1.75 1/17, unbeaten novice at 16f
7. 15/1
8. 9/1

[Formath]

Market Rasen 2.55 Aclass 4 hcap chase over 22.5f on going the soft side of good. Does not look an easy race for punters and the odds confirm that opinion. Anything out to 10/1 can be considered IMO.

1. 20/1
2. 9/1 Sotovik, LTO mistakes no impression -15L 4/9, vulnerable at weights
3. 25/1, off track 77? C&D* (T-Davies/T-Davies combo)
4. 40/1, weight? Mare v males?
5. 8/1 You Know Yourself, off track 71? LTO headed mistakes kept on well won +3.5L 1/6, unexposed won chasing debut.
6. 11/1, weight?
7. 9/1 Lorum Leader, hcap mark? LTO struggling tailed off -26L 3/9, out of sorts
8. 11/1
9. 40/1
10. 80/1, hcap mark? Mare v males?
11. 8/1 Darn Hot. mare v males? LTO badly hampered PU, could bounce.
12 8/1 Foxesbow, LTO headway hung R one-paced -4L 6/13, could go well (O’Neill/McCoy combo)
13. 11/1
14. 25/1
15. 20/1

[Formath]

Kempton 3.50 A class 4 4yo+ hcap over 8f on standard. Looks like an open contest on paper so anything out to 9/1 can be considered IMO. My ratings priced to a ‘fair odds’ 100% tissue:

1. 6/1 Jake The Snake, C&D* draw? LTO strong challenge just failed -ns 2/7, needs a good ride
2. 33/1, hcap mark? draw?
3. 66/1, weight-change? draw?
4. 7/1 Jordaura, LTO ridden soon eased -8L 7/10, not out of it
5. 8/1 Big Bay, C&D* draw? LTO every chance not the pace of leaders -2.5L 3/8, looks each-way chance.
6. Non-runner
7. 11/2 Young Dottie, mare v males? LTO under pressure headway never nearer -3.5L 7/10, good hcap mark today
8. Non-runner
9. 9/2 Chilli Green, filly v males? LTO led hard pressed headed -1.75L 2/8, improver
10. 66/1
11. 6/1 Global Village, LTO effort soon beaten -13L 8/8, out of form
12. Non-runner
13. 12/1

[Formath]

Leicester 3.40 A class 4 hcap chase over 23.5f on very soft going. Looks a poor contest on paper so just assessed on the basis that one of them has to win . A possible shaft of light is the fact that it is AP’s only ride. Any odds out to 9/1 can be consisdered IMO. My ratings priced to a ‘fair odds’ 100% tissue.

1. ? (McCain/Maguire 2nd best combo)
2. 11/1, off track 89? Hcap mark?
3. 11/1
4. 17/2
5. 9/2 Autumn Red, aged? LTO ridden held on won here +nk 1/10, could be thereabouts.
6. 9/2 Quazy De Joie, aged? LTO chased held no impression -13L 2/9, hcap mar OK. (O’Neill/McCoy best combo)
7. 50/1
8. 22/1, (Johnson up)
9. 10/3 Hever Royal, aged? C&D* LTO held up pushed weakened PU. Not raced often nowadays.
10. 15/1, off track 61?

[Formath]

Huntingdon 2.45 A class 2 hcap hurdle over 26f on GS, maybe softer, not my type of race but I have mentioned that before. Most of them look OK at the weight but can they get the D, which looks critical. Anything out to around 10/1 could be in with a shout IMO. My ratings priced to a ‘fair odds’ 100% tissue:

1. 13/1 hcap mark?
2. 9/1 Vgarant Emperor, LTO held up weakened PU, has it to do.
3. 9/1 I’ve Been Framed, LTO clear hit 2 out headway +hd 1/12, rahter more required
4. 25/1
5. 100/1 off track 71?
6. 11/1 Salpierre, LTO challenged led stayed on well +3L 1/13, improver (O’Neill McCoy best combo)
7. 35/1 off track 80?
8. 18/1 weight change?
9. 18/1 off track 65? (Henderson/Gerachty 2nd best combo)
10. 11/1 Stow, LTO held up chased no impression -15L 2/18, has some chance.
11. 15/1
12. 9/1 Firm Order, LTO led soon ridden weakened -25L 4/17, on a good mark
13. 15/1
14. 11/1 Go Amwell, C&D* LTO always in rear tailed off 11/12, needs to improve
15. 18/1

[Formath]

Doncaster 2.30 A class 3 novice hcap chase over 24f on GF. It’s critical that these novices get the D and that could phase some of them that are not track fit. Anything out to 10/1 may be considered IMO with the fancied runners being at the top and bottom of the card. My ratings converted to a ‘fair odds’ 100% tissue:

1. 9/2 Mostly Bob, weight change? LTO outpaced rallied chased stayed on well -1.25L 2/5, claims on form (Hobbs/Johnson best combo)
2. 66/1 off track 71? Hcap mark?
3. 10/1
4. 33/1
5. 10/1 off track 153?
6. 22/1 off track 69?
7. 16/1 (King/Hutchinson 2nd best combo)
8. 13/2 Ovthenight, off track 79? LTO led headed pressed stayed on well won +12L 1/5, harder task today
9. 17/2 Elzahaan, LTO led blundered mistakes weakened 5/5, well behind Mostly Bob (Lee up)
10. 10/1
11. 11/2 Douglas Julian, LTO chased challenged led held on well won +1.5L 1/9, on a good mark but has to get D

[Formath]

Cheltenham 3.05 A class 1 hurdle over 20.5f on GS. Any out to 10/1 may be considered IMO and speed is usually king in these top class events. My ratings converted to a ‘fair odds’ 100% book:

1. 12/1 (T-Davies/Brennan 3rd best combo)
2. 4/1 Backspin, LTO well clear won +8L 1/8, unbeaten (O’Neill/McCoy 2nd best combo)
3. 9/2 Bobs Worth, C&D* LTO led ridden kept on well won +2.25L 1/15, impressive hurdler (Henderson/Geraghty best combo)
4. 17/2 Champion Court, off track 76? Weight change? C&D* LTO led stayed on strongly driven out won +7L 1/8, won here on hurdling debut.
5. 12/1, weight change?
6. 20/1
7. 5/1 Herbie Simpson, LTO headway chased lost 2nd no extra -4L 3/15, has a chance at the weights.
8. 20/1
9. 20/1
10. 20/1
11 66/1

[Formath]

Fakenham 2.55 a class 3 hcap chase over 24.5 f on GS. Not a bad race to assess from the form point of view so hopefully the form horses will oblige, and those out to 6/1 are the one’s to consider IMO. My ratings converted to a ‘fair odds’ 100% tissue.

1. 40/1 weight change?
2. 20/1 weight change
3. 7/4 Ray Mond, C&D* LTO made all clear not fluent kept on gamely won here +10L 1/5, has proven form.
4. 10/1 (A King best trainer)
5. 9/2 Noun De La Thinte, weight change? Mare v males? LTO tracked lead ridden weakened -24L 5/15, consistent handicapper
6. Non-runner
7. 7/2 Three Chords, LTO headwaynchallenged led ridden kept on won +2.75L 1/10, looks progressive
8. 13/1

[Formath]

Ayr 2.50 a class 4 hcap chase over 21f on GS, SL has it as moderate and competitive and I concur. Almost half the field are not track fit so we are relying on the trainer’s expertise. Schindlers Society is the obvious choice having won here over shorter LTO and dropped in weight a little but not the quickest if that matters? My ratings converted to a ‘fair odds’ 100% tissue, where any out to 10/1 may be considered IMO:

1. 25/1 weight-change? (Goldie/McGrath 1st string – am I wrong about this one?)
2. 50/1 off track 96? Weight-change?
3. 11/2 Dallas Bell, weight-change? LTO headway chased soon ridden no impression stayed on -17L 3/9, possible show
4. 12/1 hcap mark?
5. 9/2 Schindlers Society, LTO held up headway ridden led kept on won here +2L 1/9, obvious form claims
6. 50/1 off track 303? (Goldie/Lee 2nd string?
7. 9/1 Lahib The Fifth, LTO headway under pressure stayed on no chance -17L 3/9, possible each-way shot
8. 11/2 Festival King, weight-change? LTO chased led hit 2 out headed weakened -5L 2/9, not out of it (Ms P Robson noted)
9. 16/1 off traqck 214?
10. 9/1 Coldwells, mare v males? LTO led headed outpaced weakened -16L 5/8, not reliable.
11. 25/1 off track 80?
12. 25/1 off track 80?

[Formath]

Taunton 3.50 a class 3 hcap hurdle over 17f on better than GS. This type of race has been my bete noir over the years and I never have much confidence in the results of my assessment. If speed and weight are the critical factors then those at the bottom of the card look best in IMO. My ratings converted to a ‘fair odds’ 100% tissue where any out to 10/1 could be considered:

1. 125/1 weight change?
2. 13/1 off track 184? (Pipe Scudamore best combo)
3. 12/1 C&D*
4. 60/1 (Hobbs/Johnson 2nd best combo)
5. 8/1 King’s Review, LTO chased stayed on under pressure no impression -1.5L 2/16, could go well
6. 18/1
7. 12/1 hcap mark?
8. 22/1 off track 235? Hcap mark? C&D*
9. 12/1
10. 18/1
11. 9/1 Ocean Transit, C&D* Mare v males? LTO led led again headed soon ridden no chance -16L 3/12, cheekpieces tried today
12. 13/1 C&D* Mare v males?
13. 4/1 Tenor Nivernais, LTO hampered went 3rd kept on flat -4L 3/16, 2 out of 2 in France
14. 18/1 (Nicholls noted)

[emian]

Name-my odds-bookies odds now.

Tenor Nivernais-9/2-10/3 (no bet)
My Shamwari-7/1-8/1 (B365 bog) (Got 11/1 VC bog early this morning)
Henry King-8/1-17/2 (VC bog)

[Author]

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