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Ascot 2.10 Nov 3
5/2 Hoo La Baloo, dependable but has to prove stamina
7/2 An Accordian, unbeaten pointer OK if fit and jumping holds up, 280 days off track? The market could be an indicator.
4/1 Full House, reliable and could run well, D?
4/1 Iron Man, appears vulnerable at the weights
15/2 Harris bay
10/1 Boychuk
20/1 Royal Auclair
80/1 Briery Fox
80/1 Without A DoubtLate today so just the short version – other prices on demand
Carlisle 2.25 Nov 4
4/1 Irish Raptor, capable but jumping has been suspect
11/2 Money Line, won 2/3 chses but up in weight
6/1 Two Miles West, looks yard 1st string with McCoy up
15/2 Underwriter, has chance with clear jumping round
17/2 Rakalackey, has chance on good goingExeter 3.50 Nov 6
11/4 Mister Apple’s, may be vulnerable at the weight
3/1 Jim Edwards, could benefit from a test of stamina
4/1 Kaldouas, a potential improver
4/1 Gumley Gale, fit with a light weight
13/2 Notanotherdonkey
11/1 Inaro
20/1 Zimbabwe
60/1 Harry Potter
60/1 Special ConquestJust to digress, these are a popular online compilers ratingspriced up to incude a sensible margin for the book. The horses listed are probables from forecasted restricted races. The intention being to support all those listed that at least make the price shown to the stakes shown but only up to a total of 70 points in any race, which will at least give a profit of 30. Hope you are with me so far
Taunton
1.10
Dunlea Dancer 3/1 25pts
Dicey Dancer 100/30 24 (Won)
Dumaran 7/2 23 bet lost1.40
Kyathos 9/2 19
Pips Assertive Way 11/2 16 bet lost
Five Two 11/2 16
Three Ships 11/2 16 (Won)2.10
Walsingham 40/95 70 (Won) +462.40
Golden Alchemist 15/8 35
Classic Gold 9/4 31 (Won)
Boot ‘N’ Toot 5/1 173.10
Swift Half 4/5 56 (Won) +67
Gaelic Present Evens 504.10
Flamehairtemptress 5/4 45 bet lost
Floradora Do 15/8 35 (Won)Overall result +113 – 84 = +29 (We live to fight another day
)Little time today so just the one race, as per yesterday, remembering runners must be available at the minimum odds to be a bet.
Cheltenham 3.05 Nov 16
Snap Tie 7/2 23pts
Zilcash 9/2 19pts bet lost
Spectait 5/1 16ptsOverall result -19pts
Hexham 2.10 Nov 21
On reflection I shouldn’t have considered this race for betting in view of the distance on the going and the dearth of recent good form. However, I spent time assessing the race so I will post where I got to with it.
Surprisingly the available odds indicate it as a restricted race winner to come from nos 2, 3, 4, 6, 11, 13. It looks a balanced hcap with 6 of 13 runners in the top half weight division. Not expected today on hcap/betting are nos 1 & 5. Nos 1 – 3 running below their hcap class, 4- 6 in their class, and 7 -13 above their class. The simple, quick assessment gives Full On, Classic Capers, Delray Beach.
A detailed assessment with each runner filtered through 11 factors that have proved critical in indicating winners in the past gives viable bets as:
Full On 85/40 stake 32pts ( I made an error in calculating the odds it was 4/1, not that it would have made any difference) [/color:qtydmw2i](my odds assessment and stake of course)
High Cotton 6/1 15pts
Getinbutonlyjust 15/2 12pts
Nirvana Swing 15/2 12ptsJust came down to an assessment exrcise in the end
Warwick 2.20 Nov 21
As my last post today was inconclusive I thought I would try something easier to assess, but is it? A smal novice chase with decent runners and yards in good form. The prices are my calculation on past performance so feel free to ignore them completely
Marodima 4/5, obvious selection, fit, has to jump well though
Pepsyrock 7/2, French visitor and will be trying
Hi Dancer 7/2, ultra consistent and merits consideration
Malakiya 9/1
Pur De Sivola 40/1 (King/R Thornton top combo at the track and going well too)Wincanton 3.00 Nov 22
Tom Sayers 5/6, C&D progressive obvious choice
Nykel 4/1, C winner on good mark for a yard in form. 264 days off track?
Geeveem 4/1, open to improvement if jumping better, 258 days off track?
All In The Stars 15/2
Zimbabwe 16/1
Korelo 35/1The odds shown are caculated from my ratings without recourse to the betting forecast or actual betting market and are therefore a completely independent, unbiased assessment, just my opinion of course
Taunton 2.20, Dec 13
5/4 Acambo, useful hurdler, won at Ascot on chasing debut
95/40 Pepporoni Pete, has ability and won chasing debut, longer D?
4/1 Dusky Warbler, quirky and has something to prove
6/1 Triggernometry, solid hurdler up in class and difficult today, D?
18/1 Russian Around, off track nearly 2 years?
50/1 Pitton Prince, little or no chance hereCheltenham 12.45 Dec 14
11/8 Joe Lively, improver but well beaten by Ornais
85/40 Imperial Commander, smart novice hurdler, promising but has to jump
95/40 Ornais, French import and good prospect, short on experience
40/1 Irish Wolf, strong stayer below par last time outCheltenham 3.10 Dec 15
5/2 Sublimity, the class contender if fit enough, 277 days off track?
3/1 Desert Quest, not to be underestimated here
4/1 Macs Joy, no excuses on fitness today
11/2 Katchit, competitor but looks vulnerable here
7/1 Afsoun, fit and has some chance to go close
17/2 Straw Bear, first time out winner over hurdles for 2 seasons, 277 days off track?
18/1 Osana, improver so worth having a run
60/1 Penzance, disappointing, 217 days off track?Catterick 1.50 Dec 18
5/4 Sparkling Taff, stamina is a concern
7/4 Polar Gale, jumping can be iffy
11/4 Carndale, good race here 2 weeks ago but needs to find more against the top two
22/1 Aston, disappointingNB: The odds listed are my calculation after assessing a runner’s chance against the opposition by filtering through 9 factors that have proved critical to indicating winners in the past, and have no merit other than that.
Newbury 3.10 Dec 19
13/8 Trust Fund, a weight carrier and could improve, the one to beat here
3/1 Harrycone Lewis, C&D last time out and should go well
3/1 King Harald, all out to win last time out
5/1 Mr Fluffy, has some chance on present hcap
9/1 Si Grand, French import has something to prove
60/1 Harry’s Dream, strugglingExeter 1.50 Dec 20
Evens Mister Quasimodo, the others will have to be up for it to see him off
9/4 Master Minded, classy french import, Nicholls/Thomas combo, 207 days off track?
5/2 Deep Quest, 2nd here 2 weeks ago but up in class today?
33/1 Gray Steel, has class but out of form?On concluding this assessment experience indicates it is not an easy betting proposition. Depends whether you are seek bets without regard to the odds or the best bet at the available prices, and I am in the latter camp.
Ascot 2.50 Dec 21
6/4 Lord Henry, jumping can be a let down
2/1 Allumee, another iffy jumper
5/1 Charlton Kings, may go better for Timmy Murphy but needs to
5/1 Bleu Superbe, 12-y-o and not a good jumper, not badly handicapped tho
16/1 Demi Beau, has been out of sorts this seasonAscot 1.40 Dec 22
13/8 Hardy Eustace, class entry and the one to beat, has to get the D on the G tho
11/4 Black Jack Ketchum, surgery in summer and seems to lack stamina nowadays
9/2 Sonnyanjoe, improving stayer but difficult today
11/2 Kasbah Bliss, stamina to prove but not completely ruled out
12/1 Special Envoy, has had misfortune but worth a run on the G
20/1 Chief Dan George
20/1 Hills Of Arran
33/1 Lyes Green
60/1 Lough Derg
??? Oscardeal
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