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Wetherby 3.55 a class 3 chase over 20.5f on going given as G where 5/9 runners have been off track for some time. Will it be they or the recent form runners that prevail? Does speed matter chasing if so these are the proven quicker runners No’s 2, 3, 5? Those favoured by the weights appear to be No’s 6, 9, 3.
(My form ratings priced to 100% with a possible book tissue of 113% in brackets)
1. 10 40/1 (35/1), weight-change? G?
2. 24 7/4 (6/4) Nikos Extra, off track 157? Good record fresh
3. 14 15/2 (13/2) Fit To Drive, off track 178? Mare-v-males? Form? Willing.
4. 11 20/1 (18/1), off track 169? Form?
5. 12 13/1 (11/1), off track 159? Course?
6. 18 7/2 (3/1) General Hardi, off track 121? D? Jumping needs improvement
7. 10 40/1 (35/1)
8. 13 10/1 (17/2)
9. 11 20/1 (18/1), class?Nottingham 4.10 a 3yo+ hcap over 12f on going given as G where Psychic Ability ticks nearly all the boxes well ahead of the others. If you believe speed is a factor then the proven fast runners are No’s 1, 3, 8, 4.
(My form ratings priced to 100% with a possible book tissue of 124% in brackets)
1. 15 10/1 (15/2) Roman Republic, disappointing and now gelded
2. 12 14/1 (11/1)
3. 8 35/1 (28/1), hcap mark? Form?
4. 14 11/1 (17/2) Oratory, course? Has to get trip.
5. 10 20/1 (16/1), course? G? Form? Class?
6. 8 35/1 (28/1), G? Form?
7. 21 11/2 (9/2) Psychic Ability, hcap mark? Improver.
8. 10 20/1 (16/1), of track 301?
9. 11 16/1 (13/1)
10. 12 14/1 (11/1), mare-v-males?
11. 6 100/1 (80/1), off track 96? Weight-change? Form? Class?
12. 9 25/1 (20/1)
13. 10 20/1 (16/1), hcap? Course?
14. 15 10/1 (15/2) Reve De Nuit, form? Place claims.
15. 12 14/1 (11/1), form?
16. 10 20/1 (16/1), course? D?Newmarket 3.30 a Gp 3 Class 1 3yo+ stakes over 9f on G going and this is a race where speed has to be a factor. Proven fast runners to date are No’s 9, 11, 4, 3. Timeform seem to be of this opinion too and a sneaky look at Massey where on balance he goes for Steel Tango last years winner.
(My form ratings priced to 100% with a possible book tissue of 122% in brackets)
1. Non-runner
2. 4 80/1 (66/1), course? Form?
3. 5 40/1 (33/1)
4. 13 7/1 (11/2) Mastery, off track 202? D? Looks minimum trip.
5. Non-runner
6. 7 20/1 (16/1), course? D?
7. 6 25/1 (22/1)
8. 16 5/1 (4/1) Steel Tango, won this 2009 not much since.
9. 23 3/1 (95/40) Tazeez, on balance seems to have every chance
10. 4 80/1 (66/1), off track 104?
11. 17 5/1 (4/1) Vesuve, has improved
12. 4 80/1 (66/1)
13. 5 40/1 (33/1)
14. 8 15/1 (12/1)
15. 8 15/1 (12/1), filly-v-males?Newmarket 3.00 a really top-grade race G1 Class 1 3yo+ stakes over 10f on G where Twice Over is attempting to retain his crown. Speed again should come into its own and though there are no slowcoaches the proven best are No’s 10, 7, 8, 2.
(My form ratings priced to 100% with a possible book tissue of 100% in brackets)
1. 5 80/1 (80/1), form?
2. 14 15/2 (13/2) Debussy, needs more to win this.
3. 8 20/1 (16/1)
4. 9 16/1 (14/1)
5. 6 40/1 (35/1), off track 122?
6. 14 15/2 (13/2) Sri Putra, been under par now blinkered
7. 23 7/2 (3/1) Twice Over, won this last year and could again if on song.
8. 19 5/1 (4/1) Vision D’Etat, high-class French challenger
9. Non-runner
10. 20 9/2 (7/2) Poet’s Voice, quick and supplemented for this but D of some concern
11. 9 16/1 (14/1)(Had a quick look at the Nwm 2.25 where IMO speed will be king again and the proven best in order of merit are No’s 2, 1, 3)
Bath 4.25 a class 4 3yo+ hcap over 13f on going given as G. This is a low-grade race and just constitutes a pot-boiler to keep my hand in. There is a dearth of course and /or distance winners with the exception of Pelham Crescent. Their low percentage overall form profiles are reflected by the class they are competing in. Being a hcap weight counts IMO and the two best favoured are No’s 8 & 11, although going by the best proven OR these are the proven best No’s 1, 9, 2, 5.
(My form rating priced to 100% with a possible 116% book tissue in brackets)
1.17 3/1 (5/2) Oldrick, hcap mark? Has reasonable chance.
2. 9 11/1 (9/1), filly-v-males? Form?
3. 15 4/1 (3/1) Pelham Crescent, of interest after recent win and course record.
4. 7 22/1 (20/1), G?
5. 8 15/1 (13/1), G? Class?
6. 6 50/1 (40/1), off track 102? G? Form?
7. Non-runner
8. 12 6/1 (5/1) Zafranager, off track 197? Was fairly useful when in France
9. 10 17/2 (15/2) If I Were A Boy, filly-v-males? Upped in D so has to stay.
10. 8 15/1 (13/1)
11. 6 50/1 (40/1)Plumpton 4.50 a class 3 hcap hurdle over 25.5f on GF a kind of Monday miasma. In my experience hcap hurdle races are difficult to assess and you only have to check trainer’s records to see why. They have to carry the weight over the D today so that could be the key. The proven best OR are as given on the card No’s 1, 2, 3, 4 yet those favoured by the weights IMO are No’s 6, 7, 8, 9. Clifton Debut gets a fair write-up on Timeform, amongst others, but my assessment on past performance indicates otherwise. (My ‘fancy’ is that Cubism could make the frame with the going conditions but has no merit other than that)
(My form ratings priced to 100% with a possible 113% book tissue in brackets)
1. 22 11/4 (9/4) Winsley Hill, hcap mark? Mare-v-males? In form
2. 11 8/1 (7/1) Whenever, improver but stamina will be tried.
3. 7 16/1 (15/1), off track 241?
4. 8 13/1 (12/1), off track 158? Hcap mark? Class?
5. 8 13/1 (12/1), off track 183? Weight-change? Form?
6. 15 5/1 (4/1) Makena, mare-v-males? Needs more to beat Winsley Hill
7. 7 16/1 (15/1)
8. 4 66/1 (60/1)
9. 16 9/2 (4/1) Cubism, course? May not get trip.Ffos Las 4.45 a 3yo+ 6f sprint hcap over 6f on going given as GF. Sprint hcaps are not really my cup of tea because missing the break means your cooked and is speed or weight the critical factor? Proven faster runners are No’s 8, 1, 2, 6. Those favoured by the weights look to be the bottom half.
(My form ratings priced to 100% with a possible 116% book tissue in brackets)
1. 17 6/1 (5/1) Drwnfromthepast, D? Class? Impressive on AW
2. 9 33/1 (28/1), D? Form?
3. 8 66/1 (60/1), Form? Class?
4. 17 6/1 (5/1) Kuanyao, contender with his record
5. Non-runner
6. 16 13/2 (15/2) Below Zero, looks to need more today
7. 18 5/1 (9/2) We Have A Dream, could hold his own
8. 15 15/2 (13/2) Shifting Star, form? On a fair mark
9. 13 10/1 (9/1), off track 100?
10. 15 15/2 (13/2) Telelle, filly-v-males? G? Has not found under pressure
11. 10 22/1 (18/1)Carlisle 3.55 a class hcap hurdle over 16f on G given as GF. In my experience hcap hurdle races are the most difficult to assess and this one may be harder owing to the fact that more than half the field are not proven track fit. Only over the minimum trip so speed could be the key and Massey goes No’s 6, 11, 9. Nothing much in the weights so recent form could be a criticsl factor and that agin brings in No’s 11, 6.
(DAILY MAIL FORMCAST ratings priced to 100% with a possible 116% book tissue in brackets)
1. 60/1 (50/1), off track 187?
2. 15/2 (13/2) Skylancer, form? Has been disappointing fencing
3. 9/1 (8/1) Worth A King’s, off track 135? Class? May have an attitude problem
4. 14/1 (12/1), off track 187? Form? Class? Johnson/Hughes best combo
5. 28/1 (25/1),off track 273? D? G? Form? Smith/Byrne 2nd best combo
6. 15/2 (13/2) Trumpetoo, better going may help
7. 13/2 (11/2) Bocamix, off track 198? Form? Unproven on G
8. 15/2 (13/2) Papa Caruso, off track 201? Hcap mark? Class? Needs to improve
9. 11/1 (10/1)
10. 11/1 (10/1) course? D? Form Class?
11. 6/1 (5/1) Zahara Joy, mare-v-males? Course? Has potential to go wellPosted on the wrong topic, I must be losing it
No head full of magic today but back to basics
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Aintree 3.20 a class 3 hcap hurdle over 24.5f on going given as GS that is a race where our mentor would probably opine ‘the alarm bells should be ringing’. The chart platform indicates that the factors don’t support each other and with track fitness being in question for most a difficult race to assess. Will my rating factor do the job?Column Headings for X* – Betting forecast, class, consistency 1, consistency 2, one4racing, RPR
(My rating priced to 100% with a possible book tissue of 121% in brackets)
1. X00000 1* 1
2. X0X0X0 3* 8 9/2 (7/2) Solway Sam
3. X0000X 2* 4
4. X0000X 2* 1
5. 0XXX00 3* 7 11/2 (4/1) Markington
6. 00X0X0 2* 3
7. 00000X 1* 1
8. 0X00X0 2* 2
9. X00000 1* 3
10. Non-runner
11. 0X000X 2* 5
12. 000X0X 2* 3
13. 00000X 1* 1
14. X00X0X 3* 5 8/1 (13/2) Risk RunnerSome of the better races today where Leicester could be iffy for betting with heavy going.
The guide line prices shown are more an art than a science and reflect what could be considered realistic book odds. Therefore, allowing for any error it is necessary to consider the reason for any that are set to go a point or more shorter. Is it inspired money or mug money?
Leicester
3.00 8/11 Peligroso, 9/2 Dakiyah, 3/1 Via Galileo
3.30 7/1 Heddwyn, 16/1 Fastnet Storm, Zebrano 11/1
Kempton
4.10 10/1 Mustakmil, 3/1 Duplicity, 4/1 Willow Dancer
4.40 5/1 Jack Smudge, 3/1 Picabo, 9/1 None Shall Sleep
Southwell
4.20 5/1 Bivouac, 3/1 Taikoo, 7/2 Powerful MelodyThis is me just faffing about waiting for the jumps season to get established
I am going with my top-rated in each race employing the staking plan advised by VDW with a bank allowing for a losing run of 15 meaning 121 points at risk. To establish my current capability I will be checking my strike-rate for the last 10 bets before each race and only wagering if the price available is longer i.e., 25% strike-rate indicates minimum acceptable odds of 10/3. There were only 4 races to date from yesterday with a 50% strike-rate so will begin with acceptable odds of 21/20.Cat 2.20 Mujaadel (just for interest the guideline price is 12/1)
Tau 3.10 Woodland Island (7/2)
Cat 3.50 Cara’s Request (4/1)
Tau 4.10 Topless (4/1)I thought I might try this just to keep my hand in
Cat 3.50 a class 4 3yo+ hcap over 7f on going given as GS and not an inspiring contest but interesting in that half the remaining runners are C&D. There doesn’t appear to be much in the weight allocation and the proven faster runners are No’s 2, 1, 3, 7.
(My form ratings priced to 100%)
1. 15 8/1 Malcheek, G? Tougher task today
2. 10 18/1, hcap mark?
3. 16 7/1 Internationaldebut, conditions suit
4. 16 7/1 Snow Bay, form? Trip suits
5. 23 7/2 Cara’s Request, looks a contender
6. 17 6/1 Conry, form? Won this last year
7. 15 8/1 Last Sovereign, others appear better
8. Non-runner
9. Non-runner
10. 7 80/1, filly-v-males? D? G?
11. 9 25/1
12. 11 15/1, course? Form?Have we hit that killer losing run already? Only time will tell .
Just 2/9 next minimum odds required 4/1, stake 5 points, amount to recover 14 points.
Mus 3.15 Hoppy’s Flyer
Mus 3.50 Palomar
Hay 4.00 Marleybow
Nott 4.15 South CapeFormath brings home the bacon
wipes out the deficit and returns profit of 10.5 points .
Skims off profit and returns to bank of 121 points . 30% strike-rate from past 10 bets so minimum acceptable odds of 5/2 to recommence .Lin 2.40 Quick Wit
Lin 3.10 Aspectoflove
Str 3.20 Peut Etre Sivola
Lin 3.40 Baila MeYesterday gave 3/4 and the only bet was a loser owing to the poor odds of the winners, although it did bump the strike-rate up to 50%, so the first wager today only has to be 21/20 or longer.
Nwm 3.00 Ragsah
Wet 3.20 Mister McGoldrick
Wet 3.55 Domtaline
Nwm 4.10 Caltrava CapeI’m just coming out of hibernation as far as racing is concerned so may be rather rusty. I had an inquiry about compiling a tissue and that prompted me to attampt this race today
Musselburgh 3.20 the best class race on the UK mainland today. A class 3 hcap chase over 24f on going forecast the soft side of good. My odds tissue is arrived at after compiling a form rating by filtering each runner through 8 factors that have historically proved critical in selecting winners. This race appears fairly open IMO and anything out to 8/1 could be in with a shout.
1. 60/1, off track 187?
2. Non-runner
3. 15/2 Top Dressing, 1st time cheek-pieces need to make an improvement.
4. 15/2 Bally Wall, hcap mark? (RP believes it is fair)
5. 11/1
6. 11/2 New Shuil, C&D in Nov makes him a contender
7. 5/1 Ballabrook, has to have chance of a place on form IMO
8. 28/1
9. 13/2 Isla Pearl Fisher,in form fancied runner and a contender if confidence OK.
10. 11/2 Festival King, has big drop in weight in favour over the D on the G
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and returns profit of 10.5 points 
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