- This topic has 552 replies, 9 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 8 months ago by
.
- Posts
Sandown 3.55 (my ratings priced to 100% with alongside Betfair 100% tissue for comparison)
A class 3 3yo+ hcap over 10f on going f/c GF. Proven faster runners are No’s 5, 2 and OR 1, 2, 3.
1. 4/1 (11/1) Bugaku, C&D* LTO tracked ridden weakened 9/12 -13L, moody and has to be on a going day.
2. 10/1 (16/1) Tinshu, filly versus males? Course? LTO steadied held up headway kept on under pressure no impression on leaders 3/6 -1.75L, could show
3. 28/1 (14/1)
4. 7/1 (6/1) Yorgunnabelucky, course? Class? LTO made most ridden asserted won 1/6 +2.5L, tougher today.
5. 7/1 (10/1) Resurge, class? LTO tracked carried left ridden chance not pace of leaders 3/6 -3.5L, has to see race out.
6. 20/1 (41/1), class?
7. 13/1 (8/1)
8. 16/1 (25/1), class?
9. 28/1 (33/1), course? Form? Class?
10. 28/1 (14/1), filly versus males?
11. 16/1 (9/1), course? Class?
12. 13/1 (14/1), filly versus malea?
13. 80/1 (25/1), course? G? Form? Class?
14. 28/1 (9/1), off track 280?Ascot 4.35 (my ratings priced to 100% with alongside Betfair 100% tissue for comparison)
A class 2 3yo+ hcap over 12f on going f/c G. Looks a decent race IMO. Proven best for speed No’s 5, 1, 4 and OR No’s 6, 1, 2, 3.
1. 20/1 (16/1), course? Form? Weight?
2. 13/2 (9/2) Times Up, LTO in touch headway every chance ridden to lead won 1/12 +2.25, trip suits.
3. 20/1 (8/1), C&D* Form? Class? Weight?
4. 80/1 (12/1), Course? D? Weight?
5. 11/2 (8/1) Record Breaker, C&D* LTO tracking led headed unable quicken 3/8 -2L, returning to form.
6. 10/3 (11/2) Bay Willow, Course? Class? LTO led ridden pressed headed by Times Up, a bit more needed.
7. 13/2 (8/1) Ouster, LTO led pushed ridden stayed on for 3rd behind Times Up 3/12 -3.5L, improving.
8. 11/1 (16/1), class?
9. 20/1 (12/1)
10. 16/1 (49/1), G?
11. 16/1 (12/1), class? Filly versus males?Betting: The question for me is can beaten favourite Bay Willow defeat Times up today and the improvers Record Breaker and Ouster?
Goodwood 2.45 (my ratings priced to 100% with alongside Betfair 100% tissue for comparison.)
A class all-aged sprint stakes over 5f on G. Sprints are difficult for punters IMO and this one is no exception with males, females, 3yo to 8yo. 3yo are just beginning to come into their own at this stage of the season against older horses. Proven fast runners are No’s 2, 6, 1, 8 and OR 2, 1, 8, 9.
1. 33/1 (49/1), G? Form?
2. 5/2 (8/1) Borderlescott, LTO tracked switched quickened ran on well just held 3/8 -.5L, contender
3. 18/1 (22/1)
4. 25/1 (18/1)
5. 16/1 (6/1)
6. 18/1 (64/1), C&D*
7. 16/1 (79/1), C&D*
8. 50/1 (25/1), course? Form?
9. 15/2 (5/1) Triple Aspect, pushed headway hung right driven stayed on won 1/6 +.5L, could be imprving
10. 13/1 (16/1), filly?
11. 25/1 (28/1), filly?
12. 13/1 (9/1),filly?
13. 100/1 (99/1), form?
14. 100/1 (33/1)
15. 10/1 (8/1) Astrophysical Jet, filly versus males? LTO tracked led ridden quickened ran on won 1/11 +2.5L, consisered.
16. Non-runner
17. 11/1 (14/1), fillyNassau Stakes (my ratings priced to 100% with alongside Betfair 100% tissue for comparison)
Proven fast runners No’s 3, 4, 2, 7 and OR No’s 3, 5, 1
1. 40/1 (12/1)
2. 22/1 (18/1), course?
3. 11/8 (5/2) Midday, C&D* LTO held up went 3rd pushed no impression no chance with winner 2/4 -1.75. Very smart filly won this last year.
4. 11/2 (7/2) Stacelita, LTO won at Longchamp 1/6 +1.5L, top class French filly.
5. 10/1 (7/1)
6. 14/1 (18/1)
7. 4/1 (4/1) Rosanara, LTO 2nd at Chantilly, respected French filly.Rip Aug 2
Ripon 3.45 (my ratings priced to 100% with alongside Betfair 100% tissue for comparison)
A class 3 3yo+ hcap sprint over 6f on GF. I made a chart for the race and it doesn’t look easy to me unless you dutch 2 or 3. There are fillies and a mare and 3yo’s and the weight-changes are confusing. Not only that the recent form generally leaves a lot to be desired. The speed also is out of sync with the OR. Proven fast runners are No’s 6, 12, 5 and OR No’s 2, 3.
1. non-runner
2. 13/2 (10/1) Kellys Eye, C&D* LTO held up headway hampered weakened 18/27 -6L, improver
3. 13/2 (8/1) Midnight Martini, filly versus males? LTO prominent soon lost place 17/20 -21L, progressive as a 2yo
4. 5/1 (10/1) Baldemar, C&D* LTO intouch ridden kept on finish no extra 8/20 -3.5L, could go close
5. 20/1 (16/1), off track 296? Form?
6. 10/1 (16/1), C&D* Class?
7. 5/1 (6/1) Red Cape, C&D* LTO with leaders ridden weakened 16/27 -6L, won this last year.
8. 80/1 (14/1), class?
9. 20/1 (25/1), form?
10. 10/1 (4/1), mare versus males?
11. ??? 20/1, off track 352 days? Filly versus males?
12. 15/2 (28/1), form? Class?Pontefract 3.30 (my ratings priced to 100% with alongside Betfair 100% tissue for comparison)
A class 2 4yo+ hcap over 12f on about GF. By speed No’s 2,4 and OR 1, 2, 3. Johnston has 3 runners in the field of 7.
1. 15/1 (8/1), weight?
2. 95/40 (9/1) Precision Break, LTO held up off the pace pushed soon beaten 11/13 -6L, could go better.
3. 6/1 (9/2) Red Cadeaux, off track 91? Draw? LTO hampered squeezed behind headway soon ridden one pace hampered checked 8/17 -7L, of interest.
4. 50/1 (11/2), off track 91? Mare versus males?
5. 5/1 (6/1) Spirit Is Needed, class? LTO tracked chased led stayed on under pressure won 1/9 +1L, will headgear work again?
6. 17/2 (14/1), course? Class?
7. 4/1 (3/1) Chilly Filly, filly versus males? LTO prominent led shaken up ran on won 1/5 +1.25L, somewhat quirky.Late today been busy
Brighton 4.00 (my ratings priced to 100% with Betfair 100% tissue in brackets)
1. 17/2 (9/2), weight?
2. 13/8 (11/2) Hand Painted, C&D* LTO chsed ridden no impression 4/7 -2.5L, considered
3. Non-runner
4. 17/2 (9/1), C&D*
5. 35/1 (8/1), weight? D?
6. 9/2 (15/2) Musical Script, LTO mid division ro on did not reach leaders 3/12 -3L, pace should suit
7. 9/2 (15/2) Starwatch, LTO made most ridden found extra when challenged won 1/6 +.75L, quite fanciedSal Aug 12
Salisbury 4.15 (my ratings priced to 100% with alongside Betfair odds at 1300hrs for comparison)
A class 1 stakes over 8f on going f/c G or firmer. Proven fast runners No’s 7, 2, 1 and OR 7, 2, 1
1. 11/2 (7/1) Pressing, LTO won at San Siro 1/10 +1, 7yr old but retains form
2. 13/2 (11/2) Dream Eater, draw? LTO steadied pushed outpaced no chance 5/7 -5L, thereabouts
3. 28/1 (33/1)
4. 11/1 (11/1), off track 188?
5. 60/1 (12/1), class?
6. 28/1 (39/1), D? Form? Class?
7. 11/4 (9/4) Hearts Of Fire, draw? 4/8 -6L Chantilly, contender
8. Non-runner
9. 18/1 (39/1)
10. 7/2 (7/2) Sea Lord, draw? Class? LTO made all ridden strongly pressed stayed on to assert won 1/19 +.75L, progressiveOn paper the best class race on mainland UK today. Each runner filtered through 11 factors that have proved critical in indicating winners historically. The form is then rated and the ratings converted into odds to provide a 100% tissue.
A lot of work when the only merit opposite commercially available rating services is that it is a view of past form independent of any vested interest, not forgetting the odds are priced too not available for other ratings.In comparison:
Timeform go Markaab, Starspangledbanner, Genki
Adrian Massey goes Starspangledbanner, Regal Parade, Kingsgate NativeHaydock 3.35
1. 33/1
2. 15/2 Borderlescott, C&D* Has to be right after setback.
3. 20/1, C&D*
4. Non-runner
5. 16/1, C&D* Class?
6. 15/2 Kingsgate Native, form? Moody type nowadays
7. 16/1
8. 16/1 C&D* Form?
9. 5/1 Regal Parade, C&D*, won this race 2009.
10. 100/1, form?
11. 11/2 Starspangledbanner, looks the one to beat.
12. 20/1, form?
13. 20/1
14. 20/1, filly versus males?
15. 33/1, filly versus males?
16. Non-runnerWorcester 4.40 (my ratings priced to 100%)
In comparison Timeform goes Mad Jack Duncan, Kirkhammerton, Mr Robert.
1. 60/1, off track 171?
2. 4/1 Postmaster, hcap mark? D? Form? Not been at best.
3. 17/2 Pilgrims Lane, course? Needs to improve today.
4. 10/1
5. Non -runner
6. 18/1, off track 94? Course? D?
7. 18/1, class?
8. 6/1 Kirkhammerton, class? Has to prove stamina.
9. 17/2 Bermuda Pointe, has been a weak finisher.
10. 60/1
11. 10/3 Mad Jack Duncan, class? Progressive.Newton Abbot 4.00 (my ratings priced to 100%)
1. 13/1, course? Class?
2. 16/1, off track 226? Weight?
3. 16/1, class?
4. 6/1 Tampa Boy, jumping has to improve
5. 16/1, off track 96?
6. 13/2 Courella, improver but D some concern.
7. 66/1, weight? Form?
8. 5/1 On You Go, class? Looks a contender
9. 15/2 Hereweareagain, has had breathing problems.
10. 5/1 Moulin De La Croix, mare versus males? D? Could bounceI’ve been struggling today to identify a worthwhile bet by my method of form analysis. The best class race at Goodwood the 3.45 is for juveniles, which I am not keen on. Timeform gives Titus Mills, Big Issue, Surrey Star. Massey goes Trace Storm, Surrey Star, Memen. Myself, for what it is worth Big Issue, Titus Mills, Surrey Star.
The Sedgefield 3.35 looks a hopeless cause from the point of view of punting. Three fancied runners have been withdrawn probably because of the going. Most of the others have never been chasing and those that have are not top-class.
Sedgefield 3.35 (my ratings priced to 100%)
1. 14/1, weight?
2. Non-runner
3. 13/2 Keoghs Bar, D? Form? Has changed yards
4. 10/3 Isle Of Inishmore, D? G? Chasing debut.
5. 14/1 , off track 278? Hcap mark? D? Form?
6. Non-runner
7. 11/1, D? G? Form? Class?
8. 11/2 Festival King, off track 508? Course? Had chasing wins 2008.
9. Non-runner
10. 60/1, D? G? Form?
11. 10/3 Stolen Light, course? D? Caution needed.Doncaster 3.10 (my ratings priced to 100%)
1. 8/1 Burning Thread, weight? Useful but needs to be today
2. 18/1. weight
3. 13/2 Group Therapy, weight? Thereabouts
4. 14/1, G? Form?
5. 7/1 Prohibit, could go well
6. Non-runner
7. 10/3 Tax Free, tough and consistent
8. 5/1 Rose Blossom, course? Filly versus males? Has a chance
9. 22/1, weight? Course?
10. Non-runner
11. 66/1, form? Class? Filly versus males?
12. 18/1, weight? Course? Form? Mare versus males?
13. Non-runnerBy the way, any feedback/comment regarding my posts would be welcome as I sometimes feel I am operating in limbo
Not often I venture on to the AW surface as my assessments seldom come up to scratch, they all seem to win in their turn. Timeform goes Fantastic Strike, Home Advantage, Lyric Poet so I am not quite in sync again.
Kempton 8.50 (my ratings priced to 100%)
1. 11/1 Jeer, weight? G? Form? Needs to revive on AW
2. 7/1 Rowan Tiger, C&D* Each-way cahnce
3. 40/1, hcap mark?
4. 15/2 Trachonitis, not going well lately.
5. 17/2 Cosimo De Medici, off track 236? Course? Yard is going well.
6. 13/2 Amazing King, course? G? Respected
7. 28/1
8. 14/1, weight? D? Class?
9. 20/1, C&D*
10.17/2 Home Advantage, improver in hcaps
11. 40/1, course, D? Form?
12. 40/1, D?
13. 80/1, hcap mark
14. 17/2 Fantastic Strike, class? Has run well on turf.‘By the way, any feedback/comment regarding my posts would be welcome as I sometimes feel I am operating in limbo
‘That made me smile Proprice
Yeah. that’s what happens on this particular forum-DLAP.
Without a decent blurb no-one will take you seriously. Results don’t matter. What matters is waffle.Regarding your posts and the methods employed. I too have VDW at the core of my selection method(s). I’ve found however, that a rating and a price, even an acceptable price, are often incompatable. I’ve come to the conclusion that the selection is all that matters. By taking bfsp I feel I’m geting a fair deal.
Good Luck!
Dnc 235 Sep 9
Doncaster 2.35 (my ratings priced to 100%)
1. 8/1 Sweet Lightning, travels strongly but can finish weakly
2. 80/1, hcap mark? Course? Form?
3. 12/1, course? G? Form?
4. 13/2 Kings Destiny, course? Form? Needs more today
5. 11/2 Sirvino, form? Was porogressive 2009
6. 7/1 Royal Destination, just beaten by Sweet Lightning LTO
7. 12/1, class?
8. 7/1 Spanish Duke, improver
9. 12/1, class?
10. 7/1 Ella, mare versus males? Goes OK on softer ground.emian,
Thank you for taking the trouble to post your comment. I agree that improving selection has to be the top priority and I am always striving to adjust the weighting of the variables I check to do that.
VDW is not so important now as rather than consistency I rate the last two outings together with the lifetime win and place percentages. Spanish Duke and Sweet Lightning come out top in that respect today.
I invariably compile my own tissue in order to get some idea of where the advantage lies but I have thought of adjusting it with a layer’s margin to obtain more realistic odds. Never mind, onwards and upwards
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.