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Arc 2020

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Viewing 15 posts - 181 through 195 (of 297 total)
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  • #1504473
    SirHarryLewisSirHarryLewis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1208

    Actually here is a question.

    Which is the bigger achievement?
    1) Winning 3 arcs
    2) Winning an ascot gold cup and an arc

    Both seem as unlikely. If Stradivarius can win this arc, he would be the greatest stayer Ive ever seen.

    SHL

    #1504479
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2193

    The market is not saying 1) is unlikely. And neither am I.

    #1504482
    botchy1botchy1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3905

    Bit of a longshot but fancied Sovereign to run well in this for quite a while now if he turned up.

    AOB said that ” he needs more time ” after his Irish Derby win last year and duly upped stumps with him for the year. You can see why they thought that because he turned up looking like a different horse at the Curragh this year, what a size he is now! Anyway ran 3rd after he had been given the most considerate ride of the year, he turned up in the three runner King George.

    I watched the race a few times now and admit no way would he of beat Enable on the day, but he certainly never looked at ease on that fast ground. Enable just floated over it in comparison.

    Ran way below par in the St.Leger held up on good ground which probably explains why he is 100/1. If he came straight here he would be 20/1 now.

    I hope the ground will be the thing with him, looked very comfortable on heavy when he won his maiden at Galway and if he has been getting fit at the track and needs heavy ground they might just let him get away. My fate will be sealed in the first couple of furlongs i reckon if he is not a fair way ahead of Serpentine.

    #1504484
    botchy1botchy1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3905

    Update on the going.

    • HEAVY (4.6) at 56ft (Saturday rail).
    • VERY SOFT (4.4) at 0ft (Sunday rail.
    • Going this weekend should be HEAVY.

    #1504528
    wit
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2154

    with you botchy on Sovereign on basis of Urban Sea influence.

    lot of her progeny in this year:

    – Japan, Mogul, Serpentine, Sovereign (all APOB, all thru Galileo as sire)

    – Sottsass (Rouget, thru Galileo as damsire)

    – Raabihah (Rouget, thru Sea The Stars as sire)

    – Stradivarius (Gosden, thru Sea The Stars as sire)

    and current biggest price among them is Sovereign at around 100/1, under Barzalona.

    HKJC card for the simulcast is now up – 48 page pdf downloadable here by clicking Download Race Form (All Races) just above silks:

    https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/overseas/english/racecard.aspx?para=/20201004/S2/1

    #1504536
    Clints
    Participant
    • Total Posts 187
    #1504578
    Mike987654
    Participant
    • Total Posts 331

    With O’brien’s horses might miss the Arc I feel sorry for the ante post backer.

    #1504603
    TheTinMan87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 138

    I’ve taken 50/1 ew 4 places on Gold Trip. His price relative to In Swoop makes no sense whatsoever he beat him fairly comfortably in the Prix Greffulhe and then there was little between them behind Mogul in the Grand Prix De Paris, there is a big assumption because of the ground In Swoop’s going to improve massively but that is over-factored into their prices now considering it is far from certain who will handle ground this deep. He looks a big strong sort who I think will get through it okay.

    Considering that Sottsass and Japan appear to have gone backwards as 4 year olds and they both had ground to find with Enable anyway on last years Arc, as much as I don’t or didn’t rate the 3 year olds there is a chance the market is not taking them seriously enough considering the older challenge behind Enable is not that strong either. Persian King and Stradivarius obviously have very strong form claims but are both running over the wrong trip, I especially don’t like Persian Kings chances of staying in this ground and Stradivarius has been well enough found in the market. Its worth noting his two runs over 12F this season although both prep runs for other races would fall well short of his official rating so don’t take that literally as I highly doubt he will be reproducing that here, he probably wouldn’t need to in order to hit the frame.

    Arguably Mogul could be 2nd favourite depending on how strongly you view the Grand Prix De Paris run and how literally you take the form, he’s comfortably beaten the Greffulhe and German and English Derby winners although you’d expect Seperentine to take a massive step forward from his run, it is plausible Mogul has just taken a long time to show his best and his price I think is fair enough of those towards the head of the market. I may just back him as well if they end up running RE the contaminated feed issues. Only in 2020 could that happen!

    In summary wide open race, I expect Enable to win now but only in confidence levels to the degree the market has her at now and I’m not generally a player at those odds unless I’m certain they should be half that.

    #1504616
    botchy1botchy1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3905

    Following 32 mm’s of rain in the last 24 hrs. Going stick is 4.8

    #1504666
    All Jeff
    Participant
    • Total Posts 250

    I’ve went with three of the aob runners.

    Sovereign 100-1 ew, and win bets on Mogul 14-1, and Serpentine 16-1.

    Just watch Japan win now.

    #1504673
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2139

    nothing would sum up japan more than him winning by 5 lengths after being so dissapointing all season

    Him and mogul are both very talented but very unreliable

    #1504684
    wit
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2154

    simply getting Japan there has been half the plan:

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/emerging-owner-matsushima-buys-into-obrien-ace-japan-with-arc-the-main-target/421491

    winning with that name and Yutaka Take up would be legendary in Nihon.

    #1504701
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4629

    Not a race I ever have too much involvement in but ripe for a surprise in the conditions. If you were judging the race on this season’s form alone I’m not convinced Enable would be favourite.

    Of the main contenders SOTTSASS (8/1) is solid and hopefully won’t inconvenienced by the conditions. The other one that caught my eye is IN SWOOP (10/1 in a place or two), lightly raced, has won in soft, generally progressive and latest run off a break would have helped fitness.

    #1504722
    SirHarryLewisSirHarryLewis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1208

    Sotscass? Surely there is no form line that suggests he will finish in front of the mare? He didn’t last year. He hasn’t looked like an exceptionl French Derby winner :negative:

    SHL

    #1504759
    The Tatling Cheekily
    Participant
    • Total Posts 344

    What a Mare she is. An unbelievably meteoric rise from being rated 60 something.

    Is she entered at Ascot? Should get her ground in the stayers there, although I know the trainers keen to stay in France.

Viewing 15 posts - 181 through 195 (of 297 total)
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