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Ye of little faith. As I said on the thread I did exactly the same thing with Ballabriggs. Clearly I need to have a similar mindset every year.
Obviously, he saved the day. The opening winner made the rest of them look paceless. The favourite never looked likely to close the gap and Barney Dwan was struggling on the run to the first. Given my 25/1 Neptune bet Finian’s Oscar’s win was somewhat bittersweet. On this evidence I think he won have gone very close to winning at the Festival. Brio Conti travelled and jumped well but couldn’t find a change of gear at this level. Charbel turned in a woeful performance. You couldn’t say it was down to a hard season. Well done on Sizing Codelco. I thought Starchitect was going to give him a race but the mistake seemed to finish him off. I suppose I did well to find a Potts/Power loser but Supasundae ran very well despite sweating freely. He was just beaten by a stronger stayer. I think One For Arthur probably improved for the quicker ground. Blaklion may have gone too early but the way the winner picked up on the approach to the second last was impressive. I don’t think Highland Lodge ran his race. The jockey made a horlicks of The Chair but he was never travelling with any real zest. The Last Samuri was the second Bailey horse to turn in a very lack lustre performance. He was neaten way before the weight would have made a difference. The two in last never looked likely.
Three days of varying profit so can’t quibble at that. Didn’t get many competition points so no idea if I managed to hang on. If I didn’t the National win was a nice blow softener.
Well done Bob with Sizing Codelco nice price to.I had Finians Oscar only winner at Aintree.Any views on where you think Finians could end up next season going chasing he is
Thanks Darren, been a great meeting this year.
Finians was a nice winner to have, and probably overpriced too, well done. As each season passes I find it harder to second guess connections, and though I won’t get heavily involved with the Novices, I think it will be Arkle for a horse of his stature.
Stilvi……..don’t want to keep going in The National thread and congratulating people I missed, because I know further back I’ll miss someone else, but very well done with One For Arthur.
I’m out and about just now, but will reply to your post properly later.
I thought better of it!
Don’t know whether you noticed but that old rogue Katiymann landed a gamble yesterday 8/1-3/1. I didn’t even notice he was running. Obviously, the key to landing the gamble was me leaving it alone.
For me the start of the Flat is a bit of a joke betting wise with so much guesswork as to which horses have actually been prepared to win. It is the same guessing game every year with O’Brien. Most of them appear to need a run but some will have enough basic ability to out run a poor preparation. I did catch one of the French races today and Barzalona was as bad as ever. I don’t know how Fabre puts up with him. One things for sure for every bad ride over jumps there are ten times as many on the flat.
I knew Katyimann was running, but I just couldn’t get involved, not after his run behind Bainne. I’ve made a decision with him, and I’ll just have to swerve him.
As someone who grew up a 100% NH man, I really do like the flat, and over the last 15 years, my interest has really grown in it, and there are so many races I look forward to, and the likes of Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood etc I love, though in fairness the last 2 flat seasons have been absolutely desperate. I really hope that changes this year. I took a weeks holiday from work for Royal Ascot last year (no bad for a jumps man), and it was the worst Royal Ascot in living memory, I won’t be doing that again haha. I do hate the start of it though, and the main reason is the one you gave………..so much guesswork, and I don’t pay too much attention until Royal Ascot.
I suppose both Codes have their problems. NH has the continual problem of field sizes, the whole season being obsessed with Cheltenham, and of course the injuries, while The Flat has the problem of the rather drab start to proceedings, and more importantly, as you touched on, the level of jockeyship, it really is poor. I’m still struggling with that ride by Hanagan on Dolphin Vista lol.
Still, after May, I’ll be itching to get involved again, and my flat season kicks off with The Dash, though I may take a look at one or two of the big Saturday Handicaps.
Any Flat person reading this, all joking aside, I hope that comes across as balanced, as though a jumps man, I really do enjoy it, and I have 100 times more interest in The Ayr Gold Cup, Cesarewitch, Wokingham, or Cambridgeshire, than I do in likes of The Triumph Hurdle.
Well, we both predicted a hard slog, and both came out in profit, so hard to argue with that.
“Somewhat Bittersweet” would probably be an understatement I would imagine, and you must have been frustrated with that run. That said, nothing wrong with trying to plan a route for him next year, and as I said to Darren, I reckon Arkle.
Supasundae has been a revelation this lat month, and I think he’s worth treating seriously next year.
Funny you mention Blaklion going too early, I can discuss this all day without sounding like pocket talking for once. Big fan of Fehily, but he went far too early, it reminded me of Conor O’Farrell 2 years back on Our Father in The Becher, carbon copy, cost me a fair few quid (that one obviously is pocket talking haha).
As for the rest in The National, I stand by my original analysis of the field, and bar the odd one, very happy how I called it. By racetime, I had changed my tune on 4 of them. I thought I had cracked it with one of the two I warmed to on the day, as Rogue Angel blazed a trail, but not to be, while Drop Out Joe was terrible, and my suspicion that they were overplaying his (un)fitness, proved unfounded, as clearly he was unfit. I was dead against The Last Samuri on the day. I had said “minor honours” for him at best, but on the day, as I got a few call, messages etc about him, as people had heard of him, I told everyone to avoid him, as on second glance, he didn’t have a bit of form to justify his mark (or position in the market), and I got a few grateful calls afterwards. I was also dead against Lord Windermere as well, and confidently went for a PU, but he proved me wrong, and ran a screamer, I thought I was going to have egg on my face. They were the only 4 I amended from the list I did a couple of pages back.
As for the earlier races on Saturday, over the moon with Captain Forez, and Sizing was a jackpot winner for me.
Last word to my old pal Cause of Causes though. I said he was the best horse in the race, and he just bumped into a very impressive stayer on the day. I was so deflated afterwards, as it would have meant the world to me if my favourite horse had won my favourite race, but not to be. He still got me some significant ew money, and the horse has been an absolute star to me over the last few years, and it finally laid to rest the ghost of that car crash ride he got in 2015. Those who sought to have a squabble with me in 2015, when he got “Carberry-ed”, night want to have a look at the two rides and get back to me.
We both came out ahead at a very difficult meeting, and after 2 winning Aintrees in a row, I can see some proper losses next year, so I’ll enjoy it while I can.
I suppose both Codes have their problems. NH has the continual problem of field sizes, the whole season being obsessed with Cheltenham, and of course the injuries, while The Flat has the problem of the rather drab start to proceedings, and more importantly, as you touched on, the level of jockeyship, it really is poor. I’m still struggling with that ride by Hanagan on Dolphin Vista lol.
Any Flat person reading this, all joking aside, I hope that comes across as balanced, as though a jumps man, I really do enjoy it, and I have 100 times more interest in The Ayr Gold Cup, Cesarewitch, Wokingham, or Cambridgeshire, than I do in likes of The Triumph Hurdle.
I must admit I like the idea that the season is centred around the Cheltenham Festival. You know as a punter that the vast majority of above average horses (all being well) are going to target the Festival. It is great that we still have Aintree, Fairyhouse and Punchestown to round off the season. The Flat doesn’t have anything similar as Royal Ascot comes much too early in the season to make a valid comparison. Do you want a season that peaks in June?
I am increasingly biased where the Triumph Hurdle is concerned having backed four out of the last five winners (you can guess the odd one out) and before that the likes of Zaynar and Katchit. Rare Holiday and Upgrade were other big-priced winners and Pollardstown was one of my early favourites. If only I could do something similar with the Supreme, Arkle and Champion Hurdle. Every year I seem to be playing catch-up after those races.
Of course I can appreciate class acts such as Arrogate but for me the Flat is first and foremast a business and doesn’t have anything like the entertainment value of National Hunt. Sadly, I don’t view it much beyond a betting medium.
I think that’s why the Group stuff leaves me cold, but I just love those big handicaps.
I suppose putting another spin on Cheltenham being the focal point, is that you can get a handle on connections preferred methods, and from a punting point of view, that is an added bonus. I don’t mind it being the focal point of the season myself, and I just love it, it was more an acknowledgement to those who are not a fan of the way it kind of dominates.
Whether or not you’re a fan though, what can’t be argued with is that the season does end with a bang over the jumps, with Ayr, Fairyhouse, Perth, and Sandown still to come, not to mention The Punchestown Festival. Blood love April haha!
I have tried to embrace the handicaps but let’s face it there is little alternative as there are so many of them. Just had a look back at last year and I could only find five winners of any note – Librisa Breeze, Intisaab, Heartbreak City, Boom The Groom and Portage. The previous year was slightly better with the likes of Interception and a double strike from Rene Mathis. These would almost certainly have been day of race as I wouldn’t have had the confidence or ability to be going in ante-post.
I have given At Rainbows End another chance tonight. Maybe the better ground will do the trick but it is more in hope than judgement, particularly as the trainer has had a diabolical run. That said after Katiymann would be kicking myself if this went in unbacked.
That was woeful. Market told the story 8/1-16/1. Made worse by the fact that she looked different class to the opposition and was given the perfect ride but once asked she either couldn’t or wouldn’t go on. You wouldn’t touch her with free money on that evidence.
venture, many thanks for your horse by horse preview, it was a great read, it was a great piece of work, and there were a lot of good calls.
Very few bets this week and in hindsight should have been none.
Utmost was a horse that I flagged up on last year’s 2yo thread. He was backed from 7/1 to 100/30 and the run and ride was everything that stinks about early season Flat racing.
I don’t often bet on other sports but I now have a 100% record on women’s tennis this year – two out of two injury defaults with both players looking to have pretty good chances of winning the tournaments.
Plenty of money on offer for quite mediocre entries at Haydock. That isn’t to say the races are not competitive, anything but. I have gone with Ballybolley in the opener on the basis the only time he has looked useful over obstacles was over course and distance and Valhalla in the faint hope I didn’t miss the boat last time.
Hopefully, there will be some much better opportunities at Fairyhouse.
Yeah, pretty dismal stuff on offer this week, and not had a bet at all (bar a few Ante-Post additions). Sounds like the kind of ride that would drive me nuts, read a few negative comments about it and this is why I’m in no rush to look at the flat properly until The Dash.
I can honestly say, I’ve never had a bet on Tennis in my life………..but if you’re winning it doesn’t matter, well done. If I could get an angle on Ladies Pro-Am Peruvian Basketball I’d give it a go.
Yeah, not a big fan of this Haydock card normally, but Ballinvarrig & Rathlin Rose look worth a go, plus a few “system” horses of mine running, so enough to keep a bit of interest going. Ballinvarrig looks particularly overpriced around 20’s.
I’ve only had a quick look over the Fairyhouse cards, but there seems to be a few nice sorts running. On Sunday, I’ve got Baily Cloud in The Ryanair Gold Cup at 50’s, and I’d happy to have him placed. Strangely confident for a 50-1 shot. In the big handicap hurdle, I’ll probably side with Ivan Grozny & Joey Sasa.
As for the big one, General Principle is my biggest winner and my main fancy, though Fletchers Flyer has already put me comfortably ahead on the race.
Any early fancies for The Irish National yourself?
Nothing original I am afraid. I thought Abolitionist and Minella Foru were two obvious ones. Empire Of Dirt has hit reverse but I still think the form is solid. The only other race that I had an early look at was the bumper and I noticed that the Potts team had two very well-bred fillies in against the geldings. Need to check back later today to see who is still in.
I did have a scan through of one ore two early meetings on the Flat just to make sure I wasn’t completely out of touch. Only two horses stood out, Benbatl and Tocco D’Amore but I guess nobody will have missed those performances.
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