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Yeah, Flying Tiger went from a speculative punt in the morning, to a more serious bet once Cause of Causes came in, and it was a very nice feeling. Surely Nietschze is worth a second go, that final flight didn’t help for sure, and it’ll be interesting how they target him in the future.
I really do fancy Rashaan, and think he is a smashing price here.
I’ve been doing a horse by horse guide for 25 years now for family, friends etc, but never bothered putting up on here. Was going to do stick it up on The National thread, but that’s Gingers domain, and his would be rather more detailed than mine. I’m hoping you get round to it Ginger if you read this.
My overall record in The National is poor over the years, and there’s been a few times, not least 2011 & 2015, where I couldn’t have got it more wrong, and my Previews were quickly put to the back of the drawer.
I’ve did ok a few times though, and was kicking myself last year when I didn’t post it here, I wanted to frame it lol.
Anyway, here goes, and just a bit of fun…….
1.The Last Samuri.
Admirable sort who ran the race of his life last year, and had the rain stayed away, he would probably have landed it. He also seemed to jump particularly well, and he looks sure to be involved at the business end this time around. Whether he’ll win it or not is another matter, and he has, not only a higher mark to defy, but also a run last time, where despite running on, he was just a little bit flat for me. I wouldn’t want to dwell too long on the negatives though, as he is nice sort, and his run in The Becher can only strengthen his claims here. Can see him running a big race, but just having to settle for minor honours.2.More of That
World Hurdle winner 3 years ago, comfortably dealing with Annie Power, and after a subdued start to the season, his last runs have been more like it. Fell in The Irish Gold Cup when holding every chance, and can also boast very respectable efforts in The Lexus, and Gold Cup. I bet him at 1000-1 for this, back in December, as I just couldn’t get that “best horse I’ve ever trained” comment by Jonjo, out of my head. It was a big shout, and one which had me scratching my head as to what race would see him justifying it. I came up with The National, and his runs since have all looked like steps in the right direction. I’m fairly confident of a big run, and worth noting that they’re concentrating on him here, rather than Minella Rocco. I think he’ll stay alright, and though high enough in the weights, I see no reason why his class can’t see him through. His bleeding is a concern, it certainly cost him The RSA last year, and if no repeat of that, then I think he is a major player. Can boast a decent topspeed figure over hurdles, which I think is a nice asset here, and I think he has the look of a horse who’s whole season has been geared around this. There’s always the chance that the bleeding will surface again, in which case he’ll obviously be pulled up, but if he manages to avoid a setback like that, I’m struggling to keep him out of the frame.3.Shantou Flyer
If you were told at the start of the season that Shantou Flyer would carry the number 3 cloth in The National, then you would probably be highly dubious, and rightly so. He is number 3 in the list though, and it’s difficult to see why, he just looks rather poorly handicapped on what he’s actually achieved. Nice enough winner at Cheltenham on New Years Day, but this’ll be a million miles from that. I think he’s a solid enough horse, but just doesn’t hasn’t done enough to justify that mark. I wouldn’t read too much into his second to Cue Card last time, as I don’t think that form amounts to too much. He does have a couple of positives though. I can see Rebecca Curtis having a decent spring, while his run in The Galway Plate was decent, and will have been invaluable in getting him accustomed to the hurly burly of this. I’ve seen his stamina questioned, but he certainly stays 3 miles at the least. I hope he runs a big race for his enthusiastic owner, but just struggling to enthuse about him too much, though he does look a pretty safe conveyance. He just looks too high.4.Perfect Candidate
Nice winner last time, but consequently, that might just have weighted him out of this, as that 6lb’s could make all the difference. Connections sensibly swerved The Gold Cup to concentrate here, and he has plenty of nice runs in the locker to consider him here, not least his agonising second to Theatre Guide at Cheltenham, but he still looks high. He was put in his place by Many Clouds and Co at Cheltenham in January, and always seems to come up just short in the bigger races, but I can easily see him making the frame, and at a price too.5.Saphir Du Rheu
After a spell in the doldrums, he had a bloodless win at Kelso, before a massive run in The Gold Cup. That run was no surprise to myself, I had a few pounds on him at a price, and despite (justified) concerns that this might be too much of a test for a horse with a hardly flawless record over fences, he just looks very well treated. He can certainly have his own ideas, which is hardly a ringing endoresement either, but a case can certainly be made for him. If he decides to take to it, then he should give supporters a run, at a price which is still looking generous, and I think the trip will see him in a better light. Every chance if his jumping holds up, but that is not a given. 6 lbs well in here.6.Roi Des Francs
He looked highly progressive last winter, but after a mediocre run in The 4 Miler at Cheltenham, he’s done little of note. He won last time out, but he was entitled to, as that was a weak affair. That win was off the back of a particularly lifeless display in The Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse, and that raises question marks. There’s certainly the chance that they’ve been bringing him along quietly with this race in mind, as if that run in The Bobbyjo was where he was really at, then surely he would have been scratched for this. I’d give him a big chance if he has been subject to a very careful, and long term, prep for this, but it’s a big call to make. Certainly in his favour is the booking of Jack Kennedy, and I’ve never had any concerns with jockeys making their debut round here. An interesting outsider for sure, but still a fair amount of guesswork involved.7.Wounded Warrior
Another horse who looked to have the world at his feet, a year, year and a half ago, but has ran some stinkers since. I’m not convinced the trainer is the best at getting them jumping well, and that would be a huge concern round here. He did though, produce him to run a decent race in The Thyestes behind Champagne West, who was one of the most impressive winners of the season that day. That run at Gowran Park puts him in the picture for this, and I have always had this in mind for him, but there’s just the niggles of those less than impressive displays. I actually have a few quid on him at treble figures, but it will be a welcome surprise should I collect, and I’m just struggling to see him complete looking at the bigger picture of his overall form.8.Wonderful Charm
Seems to have enjoyed himself in the Hunter sphere this season, and went very close to landing The Foxhunter at Cheltenham. It could be significant that Nicholls sends him here, rather than Thursdays Hunters Chase, but it’s probably more a case of the trainer wanting as many runners as possible, in his bid to retain the trainers title. This will easily be the most competitive race he’s faced all year, though he’ll have a more realistic chance this time around, than he did in last years National. He went in to that race as one of the worst handicapped horses in the country, it still defies belief the mark he was on, and considering the fact he then ran on the unfavourable soft ground, he actually did well go get to the 21st. Can’t see him getting to the winners, and there’s still the suspicion that he operates better at a shorter trip, but can see him running a sound race, with maybe a midfield finish the best he can hope for.9.Tenor Nivernais
Better than ever this season, and his romp at Ascot, was, visually, the best of his career. Had a few solid yardsticks behind him that day, and although there’s a very live chance that the majority of them didn’t perform, he still won it in style. He went very close, again at Ascot, in The Sodexo Silver Cup, and that was also a run that gives him claims here. Went down at short odds last time to Seldom Inn, but he can be forgiven that. He lost a shoe that day, and the winner was on home turf, and is a horse who is probably better than he’s given credit for when in the mood. The main doubt for me with Tenor would be the ground, but I don’t think it will be that prohibitive for him, and I wouldn’t share the concerns that the trip will be an issue. He’s shaped to me as if he will stay ok, and though he’s another who I can see having a midfield finish, I think he may just surprise a few.10.Blaklion
Admirable little horse, and for an RSA winner he doesn’t look too harshly treated off of 152, considering, bar his run in The Charlie Hall, he’s been pretty solid all season. It would obviously be better for supporters to have seen him getting his head in front, and there’s just the thought that he’s not been finishing his races off, but his run at Haydock, where he was just touched off by the current market leader, Vieux Lion Rouge, has a nice look to it. Has swerved Cheltenham to focus on this, and has a top man in the saddle. Plenty to like, and trainer had welcome winner on Day 1 of the meeting, but I can see him just out of the places.11.Drop Out Joe
I’m a big fan of Drop Out Joe, and have bet him on 2 or 3 occasions, including a good few quid on him at Sandown last year. He led the field for a good way, only to weaken out of things by the railway fences. I think he’s a Spring/Summer horse, is a very reliable jumper, and his win at Uttoxeter earlier in the season is very hard to crab. On that run, he is ridiculously overpriced, and having bet him before, I’ve been considering adding him, but there’s just a few things have put me off.
As impressive as that Uttoxeter win was, he’s really paid for it, and will be very high in the weights heading here, and also has to contend with this being his first run since picking up an injury after Uttoxeter. Trainer proved at Cheltenham that he can get them ready, but that mark worries me, and though he clearly stays the trip, as seen at Ayr, there’s just the worry that he doesn’t stay fast enough, and won’t have much up his sleeve at the end. If he can clear those first few then he could be some sight in the front rank. The cons just outweigh the pros for me, but no question, if ready to go, he is overpriced, and if I can’t have the winner myself, I’d love to see him do it.12.Le Mercurey
He caught the eye behind Many Clouds at Aintree, and seemed to further enhance his claims chasing Native River home at Newbury. The ability is clearly there, but his run at Kelso, behind Tenor Nivernais, saw him capitulate very tamely, and he was well beaten. There’s speculation that he’s not one for the big fields, and if any substance to that, then he’s hard to fancy. I’d tend to think he has his own ideas, and if in the mood, as seen earlier in the season, then he could make an impression. Hard to predict with any confidence, and he may run well for a large part of the race, before pulling up.13.The Young Master
One of my long term fancies for this race, and had a few quid on him last spring. I thought for a while he would be just short of Gold Cup Class a couple of years ago, but he’s became rather “in and out”. I’d planned to top up a few more quid on him through the winter, but his run in The Becher, where he appeared to hate it, has rather tempered my enthusiasm. I don’t give as much notice to previous course form round here as others, that angle is very overplayed, and nowhere near as much of a factor as people think, but if a horse doesn’t take too it, then I will attach a lot more importance to that. He really has to step up, but the ability is there, as seen at Sandown last year, and he could still be well treated, so has possibilities. He may be one for Sandown again, and I won’t be having any more on him, but he’d still be a welcome winner for myself at 33’s. Has a top Aintree Jockey in the saddle, and trainer had The Druids Nephew primed for this 2 years ago. I think it’ll be all or nothing for him. I can see him being a surprise early casualty, or conversely, getting nursed round by Waley-Cohen. If he can get him to take to the place, then I think he is banker place material. Who knows though?14.Cause of Causes
He was my first horse bet for this race last April at 40’s, and I’ve continued to top up through the season. Although you never want to be too confident about your selections in this, I’m just a little surprised he isn’t favourite, and he’s surely one you want to get on early. Although number 14 on the current list, I strongly suspect that at his peak, he’s the best horse in the race, along with More of That, and it’s testament to his connections that he comes here off of only 150. It doesn’t sit well with many, the way these horses are campaigned, and I get that, but Elliot has been pretty transparent the last few years with what he is doing with him, yet he’s still consistently underrated. It’s hard to forget that ride given to him in The 2015 National, when Carberry decided to make his move as Many Clouds was already crossing the line, and although I doubt he would have beaten Clouds that day, he should have made the frame with ease, and what it did show, was that a win over 4 Miles, 3 weeks earlier at Cheltenham, was no barrier to his chances at Aintree. That is significant, as his race at Cheltenham this year, is actually seen as a negative by many. It’s easier to forget though, that he should actually be coming here off of a 4 timer at The Cheltenham Festival, having got the last fence wrong in The 2014 Kim Muir, and going down narrowly to Spring Heeled. What a feat that would have been, and having went down by the narrowest margins in that seasons Paddy Power at Leapordstown as well, then it becomes clear that when they want him ready, they get him ready. He also has a best Topspeed over Hurdles of 132, and though I said I couldn’t claim to be an expert on such matters as those, a good TS figure looks as if it might just be becoming, more of an asset here.
Connections were caught out last year, when they had him too well handicapped, and they got stung by the absurdly low number of defectors. No such problems this time, and at this moment, I think one of the biggest stats against him is that he’s ran in the race before, as I always prefer to be with a horse who’s making it’s National debut, but for my favourite horse in training, I’ll gladly (and conveniently) overlook that stat. His preferred running style might not be ideal either, but it’s all about timing with these horses, and with the right jock on board, I wouldn’t be too worried, and it was encouraging to see him more prominent throughout The Cross Country. It might be the heart ruling the head, but I just love the horse to bits, and think he has a massive chance. Clutching at straws for any negatives, touch wood, he’s a very safe conveyance, and my idea of the winner.15.Regal Encore
Showed he was as good as ever last spring at Punchestown, and his win at Ascot in December was a pretty decent display. Surrounding those runs though, are a series of “P’s”, and his last run at Cheltenham was very disappointing. A very hard horse to second guess, and I thought he might have been more at home at Fairyhouse. He’s not been hammered for that Ascot win though, and on his day could easily get involved, and considering who owns him, would it be the biggest shock if Saturday was one of those “going days”. 66-1 to find out. I’m not saying he’ll win, but I’ll make a bold prediction, and suggest that he might just surprise a few people at a price.16.Vieux Lion Rouge
Currently vying for favouritism, and not difficult to see why. He ran very well for a long way in this last year, and followed this up with a hard fought win in The Becher, before winning the big trial at Haydock. Trainer can still get them spot on for the big handicaps, as seen at Cheltenham, and he has plenty going for him. As for the negatives, well, there’s just the chance the trip just stretches him a little, but other than that, he seems worthy of his position near the head of the market. I’ll be against him though, and maybe can see him first 6, rather than winning.17.Definitly Red
This progressive Brian Ellison runner is the other vying for favouritism, and this is well deserved after a fine season. He started this season off, as he finished the last, with a win, and the manner of that win, in a competitive enough hurdle at Carlisle, really caught the eye. He went the scenic route behind Otago Trail at Newcastle, but lost nothing in defeat that day, and subsequent wins in The Rowland Meyrick, and The Grimthorpe put him bang in the picture here. The one black mark is his run at Haydock when he was beaten when unseating, but I’d be happy to put a line through that run, as the whole field were put to the sword that day, by a winner who had everything his favour. He’ll come here with a few pounds in hand, and like his market rival, he deserves the support, and the money is continuing to come for him.18.Ucello Conti
My “on the day” bet last year, and he was really nursed round by Daryl Jacob, and he was given every chance. He’s since ran very creditable races in The Becher, The Paddy Power, The Thyestes, and The Leinster National. Indeed, that run behind Champagne West, was probably his best, as the winner that day was dynamite, and his proximity puts him in a good light. Clearly a reliable type then, and should be safe conveyance round here, but I just have the suspicion that he might be a “bridesmaid” horse, and it may be supporting role for him once again.19.Double Shuffle
Has a brace of nice runs to his name this season, including getting the better of the very decent Go Conquer at Kempton, before only finding Pilgrims Bay, under a peach of a ride, too good for him at the same track, in The Betbright. Despite that, I still found him, initially, as hard to assess, and just suspected that a test of this nature was just beyond him, but trainer and jockey have gelled well this year, and he is the pick of Heskin, of the two Tom George runners. Possibilities at a price, and supporters should surely get a run for their money. Gun to my head though, and I suspect that he’ll be weakening near the end.20.Houblon Des Obeaux
I’ve a real soft spot for this horse, and I like the path taken by the trainer en-route here. The ground could be softer for him, but his run behind Native River at Chepstow confirmed he’s as good as ever, and not long ago he was chasing Many Clouds home in The Hennessy. He has plenty of other runs in the locker which could bring him into this, and despite those concerns about the ground, he looks to have a solid profile to me, and 50’s is massive for this horse, who was considered good enough for The Gold Cup. Trainer has landed this before, and despite previous opportunities to send him here, they’ve decided to go for it this year. I think he has live claims at a big price.21.Pleasant Company
Marked him down as a future National horse well over a year ago on here, and seen nothing to change my mind since. Just short of top notch as a novice, he looked perfect for the top end handicaps, and his win at Punchestown last spring was very impressive. He was another to run well in that Thyestes, and he showed good battling qualities to land The Bobbyjo last time. Willie Mullins is sending a very small squad here, and Pleasant Company will be his only representative, which may be significant, considering the horses at his disposal. Has the assistance of Ruby Walsh in the saddle, and he looks nailed on for a big run.22.One For Arthur
Lucinda Russell has had some joy at this track, and Arthur looks to have plenty of credentials to add to her tally. Has been steadily progressive, but it was his eyecatching run in The Becher, followed by his very easy win in The Classic Chase at Warwick which really brought him to peoples attention. A decent jumper, and has stamina in spades, and although not a household name, I’d have no worries over the pilot, Derek Fox. I suppose, should the ground be on the good side, that he might not be able to lie up with them, but his stamina will be his forte here, and he’ll surely be picking a few off at the business end. Chance.23.Ballynagour
He was a dark horse of mine for The Grand National last year, and I only deserted him at the eleventh hour. I had a few nervy moments during the race, as despite the unsuitable ground, he really took to it, and was fairly lobbing along, before a relatively soft unseat at the big open ditch. He then went on to run a huge race at Uttoxeter in The Summer Cup off of 152 behind Drop Out Joe, finishing runner up, with a very competitive field behind him, before a similar fate awaited him, this time off of 157, in the equally competitive Summer Plate, behind Long House Hall. I’m a big fan of Long House Hall, and that form looks quite strong to me. His form since then though has tailed off dramatically, with 3 P’s to his name, but as a result, he is now on 148, and with Spring in the air I give him a big chance. He has reportedly bled, and I can only hope they have a handle on that, while I suspect that his disappointing runs this winter can be ignored, as I suspect this has been the plan all season. A 9lb drop is huge for a horse of his ability, and at 66’s, he looks worth the risk. Yes, there is a chance that there is no plan, and he is simply regressing, but I think he will run a big race. He looks an “all or nothing” horse to me, and if I’ve called it wrong, then he looks the sort to be pulled up as they go out into the country for the second time. I believe though, that those runs at Uttoxeter, and Market Rasen, last summer, are a true reflection of his ability.24.O’Faolains Boy
Another former RSA winner, but things haven’t went to plan since, and he’s not had his troubles to seek. Plenty of injuries recently, and he was a fancy of mine for this seasons Hennessy, before a late injury ruled him out. A lot of that confidence stemmed from his run in The Gold Cup last year, and he was my star horse in this seasons Ten To Follow, and I have a few quid on him here from earlier in the season. That confidence seems misplaced though, and I find him incredibly hard to fancy here, and he’s one of the easier horses to write off, as his comeback runs have been disappointing. I obviously won’t complain if I’m wrong, considering that bet, but I just can’t have him now, and another who I can easily see pulling up.25.Highland Lodge
Seen sparingly these days, but his victory in The 2015 Becher, and his, arguably, unlucky second in this years renewal, would appear to give him obvious claims. Would be a great story if Henry Brooke could win this, but I doubt his riders will be sharing that sentiment in the heat of battle. Looks sure to run his race, he’s a sound jumper, and the trip won’t be an issue, but I just worry though that he’s vulnerable off of his current, career high, mark, and that just might be enough to stop him. Can see him coming up short.26.Bishops Road
Just missed out on this race last year, and took his chance in The Topham, where he got no further than the first. Jumping issues resurfaced at Sandown in The Bet365 Gold Cup, and that’s got to be a concern here once again. He advertised his credentials for The National when winning in the mud at Haydock, but that seems a long time ago now, and conditions will be different proposition for him here. He was a bit more like it last time, again at Haydock, but he still comes here on a career high mark, despite that series of below par efforts. He certainly has the stamina, but probably lacks the speed required for this, and I can see the fences getting in the way before he gets a chance to use that stamina.27.Lord Windermere
2014 Gold Cup Winner, but that seems a lifetime ago, and he’s not really seen that much action since, and that win at Cheltenham was the last time he got his head in front. There’s a good a chance he has his own ideas now, though he will have some decent assistance from the saddle in the shape of dual winner Leighton Aspell. No concerns re: ground, and although not the safest looking jumper, he’s rarely been on the deck. It’s hard though to be too enthusiastic about his overall profile, and despite his encouraging comeback run this season, he seemed to hate The National Experience two years ago.28.Saint Are
Another regular round these parts, and has enjoyed some fine displays, most notably when runner up to Many Clouds, and placing in The Becher. Didn’t get very far in this seasons renewal of that race, but he can surely be forgiven that. His “pulled up” in this last year doesn’t really do him justice, as he was in the front rank for a long way, on ground which couldn’t have been less suitable. He should have things more to his liking this time around, and Davy Russell looks a good jockey booking. I see no reason why he shouldn’t run a race again, but overall his profile is not what I look for in the winner of the race.29.Vicente
Without parting with any cash on him, I’ve seen him as a real nice type for this all winter. Doesn’t look too badly treated at all, certainly not off the back of his win in last years Scottish National. Trained by the Champion Trainer, bought by Trevor Hemmings who has been very lucky round here, ridden by Brian Hughes, who has had a phenomenal season, and this is his time of year. Plenty to like then, but having bet him at Haydock last time, I was distinctly unimpressed with his jumping, he seemed to bulldoze a couple. This was the same race where Nicholls sent Neptune Collonges en-route to Aintree Glory. Neptune looked the part that day, while Vicente clearly didn’t. On that running, I’d be less than keen, and he also came down in The Hennessy. The ability is there for sure, but he really has to take a marked step up from Haydock.30.Just A Par
On his day, he is a very talented horse, as could be seen last time at Newbury, and also from his record in The Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown, which he both won, and finished runner up. Pulled up in The 2014 Becher, he didn’t really take to it, and was way down the field in this last year, though to be fair he would have hated the ground. Those runs at Sandown make him one of the best handicapped horses in the field in my opinion, but the question marks remain about the temperament, and despite that win at Newbury, his poor showing in The Edinburgh National, is also fresh in the memory. If Harry Cobden can keep him interested till the business end, then he could surprise, but he doesn’t look one to go overboard on.31.Measureofmydreams
Looked to have a real future last winter, topped off by his third in The 4 Miler at Cheltenham behind Minella Rocco, and Native River. Not much has went right since though, having fallen early at Ayr, before never landing a blow at Sandown. Didn’t impress on his seasonal re-appearance in The Thyestes, though his run in The Ultima last time was a slight step in the right direction. He sports first time headgear, and if that can spark some improvement then that piece of form from the 4 Miler could look obvious afterwards. It’s not enough for me to get involved though.32.Raz De Maree
Better than ever this season, after looking a light of yesteryear, and his run behind Native River at Chepstow really catches the eye. Ran a really good race in The Troytown as well, and he’ll come here with stamina assured. Whether or not he’ll be able to keep in contention though is debatable, and he soon found things happening too quickly for him in this 3 years ago, a round that was littered with errors. It was a run that didn’t scream “repeat bid”. That said, he does look as improved an animal as you can get for a 12yo, but a repeat of that 2014 run looks the most likely, in that he’ll stay on very well past beaten horses.33.Stellar Notion
Went agonisingly close in The Leapordstown Handicap in January, getting collared on the line by the very decent A Toi Phil. This followed an excellent fourth in The Paddy Power, and he only found Tiger Roll too good in The Munster National, and the winner that day was putting in what clearly one of the perfomances of this NH Season. Plenty to like about this horse, should be up front out of trouble, and though he’s not got many miles on the clock, he can still boast that he’s never hit the deck. It can be easy to mention “stamina doubts” when discussing horses for The National, but it can also be a bit lazy to do so (guilty of this myself), as there aren’t too many opportunities for horses to prove themselves before they try it. This is one horse though, who does seem to have genuine stamina doubts, not least from that run at Leapordstown. That would be the only negative for him that I can see, and that form in big handicaps does give him a live chance. A real player if he can indeed stay.34.Rogue Angel
Last years Irish National didn’t particularly impress when seen here in The Becher, but it wouldn’t surprise me if that was nothing other than a “sighter”. Connections have made no secret of the fact that his season would be geared around this race, and he’s first choice of retained rider Bryan Cooper. Trained by Mouse Morris who won the race last year. Ground coming for him, and he looks massively overpriced to me at 25’s. Usually a strong traveller, and has went particularly well in his races this term. Surely more to come, and can see a big run. For those who dabble in these sort of things, at the very least, he looks a great bet to lay in running.35.Cocktails At Dawn
Nicky Henderson has never had the winner of this, and it’s hard to see Coktails bucking that trend. Hit the deck in The Betbright, and then pulled up at Cheltenham. Ran here in December in the race won by Many Clouds, and he was firmly put in his place. His jumping continues to be a concern, and another with proper, genuine stamina concerns. Impossible to enthuse about, and should he win, then I suppose that is what The Grand National is all about.36.Thunder and Roses
Winner of The Irish National 2 years ago, but that seemed to have initially taken it’s toll, and hasn’t won since, and that lean spell included “pulled ups” in The Becher, and in his repeat bid in last seasons Fairyhouse showpiece. He then took in an ultra competitive handicap at The Punchestown Festival, a race won by Fletchers Flyer, and he looked more like his old self, travelling very sweetly throughout, and looked the winner for a fair way. That trend has continued throughout the season, showing glimpses that he’s still “got it”, without getting his head in front. The trip won’t be an issue, a decent enough jumper, and he looks to have realistic each way chances.37.Gas Line Boy
By reputation, a very dodgy jumper, and there were many people who weren’t surprised by his first fence exit here in 2015. His jumping again was his undoing in The Peter Marsh last season, when unseating with the race at his mercy. He’s looked more assured of late though, and his runs since are worth a second look. Now, if you actually watch how he was doing it in that Peter Marsh, he then he would be of interest here, and has several other runs since that give him a chance, not least his Kelso romp a couple of months back, and he also ran well in The Kerry National. He has the added benefit of the assistance of the very underrated Robbie Dunne in the saddle. It might be pushing it for win purposes, but anyone looking for a big priced runner to give a bit of excitement for a long way, then this could be the boy…….if he can stay on his feet.38.Goodtoknow
Won nicely at Hereford, two runs back, and this followed up a solid effort behind One For Arthur in The Classic Chase. He looked just the type for this then, but he flopped big time in The National Trial at Haydock, and on second reflection, he actually has a lot to do to take a hand here. On a career high mark, and doesn’t have too many runs in the locker that would put him in the picture.39.La Vaticane
Has ran adequately around here a couple of times before, but at the same time, didn’t look like a horse who’d be ideal for The National. Didn’t get too much luck in running in The Kim Muir, but she still ended up tailed off, eventually pulling up. Very hard to recommend.40.Doctor Harper
Has been a “talking horse” for a couple of seasons now, but overall, he hasn’t really delivered. He was a warm order for The Kim Muir last season, but never really fiugured, and although he travelled well enough in this seasons renewal, he once again, failed to land a blow. He’s not a complete lost cause though, and a couple of runs on unsuitably soft ground at Cheltenham this season give him a chance. He was going like the winner in the race won by Viconte Du Noyer, when he appeared to bottom out very quickly. It later transpired that he had lost a shoe, so happy to excuse him that run. On New Years Day, he ran a huge race, with only Tour Des Champs, who had everything in his favour, proving too good. Might be leap of faith time, but back on spring ground, I could see him outrunning his odds.*****RESERVES*****
41.Bless The Wings
Real shame that he looks like missing out. Plenty of miles on the clock, but his runs in The Irish National last year, not to mention his effort in this seasons Cross Country chase gave him every chance. His vast experience in competitive handicaps would have been an asset here, and I have him down as a rock solid each way prospect.42.Knock House
Overall profile isn’t good enough, but has shown some ability in snatches, and looked worth a try round here with the better ground.43.Sambremont
Hadn’t shown enough this season to have been considered a realistic candidate, but maybe worth noting that, despite his small team here, Willie Mullins was willing to send him across.44.Viva Steve
Looked the part earlier in the season, but had plenty to prove on subsequent runs.Excellent detailed guide VTC. I think you should copy it to the big race thread. I’ve put up a more concise one and hope Ginger posts one too. The more the merrier!
Thanks GM, appreciate that.
I’ll see how Ginger gets on first as he was fighting for time. His annual run down of the runners is usually a cracker, and wouldn’t want mine to get in the way lol
Fairly happy with how Day 1 went, and Flying Angel got things off to a great start, while in The Bowl, I was delighted when Smad Place got me the Ante-Post Place money at 20’s. Finally, in The Red Rum, Theinval went so close, and I was delighted with him, as I was with Yorkist, who also got me the place money for 20’s ew Ante-Post.
Bit of a relief to be ahead, and if I can keep that going, I’ll be more than happy.
I only had the two bets mentioned plus Cloudy Dream (‘free bet’ to come with Sky) but you should never turn your nose up at a 25/1 winner. That said the winnings were considerably less than the solicitor’s bill I got yesterday.
It was satisfying to get plenty of things right. In my opinion my assessment of Empire Of Dirt was the most accurate post on that race thread but people on here only like winners.
It could easily have been even better in the competition with Cloudy Dream and Balnaslow but it is a nice lead. Well aware it could easily go pear-shaped over the next two days.
Compared to yesterday I like the look of today’s card.
I have gone with Ice Cold Soul and Sumkindofking in the opener. Ice Cold Soul is bred to appreciate the trip being related to Western Whisper and Outlander but it is still a doubt. The doubt with the other one is the amount he produces off the bridle. Hopefully, Sky’s comfort blanket of 6 places will help my cause. No bet in the second race but I would be surprised if the winner doesn’t come from the front two. In my opinion there should be a greater market disparity. No bet in the next. I am not quite so taken with Might Bite as everyone else seems to be. The feature race looks competitive. I had a little bit on Traffic Fluide last night (Josh is a so much better than Jamie) but the one to beat is Fox Norton. The switch from Coleman to Power should be a plus. In the Topham I can see cases for Go Conquer and Gold Present but the former doesn’t win very often and the latter is a touch fragile. Yesterday I took a big price on Katnap but he seems weak in the market today. The staying novice looks a nice race. Plenty of realistic chances but I have backed Moulin A Vent and saved on Constantine Bay. The bumper looks much stronger than the mare’s version. I have backed King Of Realms, who did me a favour on debut, and Some Reign. Of the two I would prefer Some Reign but I wouldn’t be that hopeful of pulling off the miracle double.
Just a couple of final thoughts on yesterday. Rashaan was disappointing but I think the ground and trip were against him. The Racing Post analysis has got it totally wrong, he wanted it quicker, not slower. I am very anti-whip and would love to see it done away with. Unless my eyes are getting even worse it seemed Kelly definitely hit Tea For Two without giving the horse time to respond but the Stewards (and everyone else) turned a blind eye.
Good luck with yours today.
Not good stilvi, but I hope the winners made some sort of dent in that bill.
Yeah, you called Empire spot on, and it’s just been the biggest disappointment of the season, the way things have went for him. Shame.
As for the rest of the card, the bad news for you is that Katnap looks like being my third string in The Topham, while I wish you luck with Traffic Fluide. Smashing horse, and I hope he can bounce back, as he looked a lovely prospect last season.
Fox Norton makes plenty of appeal today at 13-2, and I’ve had a fair old swing at that. Crazy odds.
My other hopes today are Clarcam & Bright New Dawn in The Topham, and I’ll just try to enjoy the action.
Good luck today, and I hope you make another dent in that bill.
Only a very small profit today on what was a frustrating betting day. Sumkindofking found nothing (again) and if Cooper was trying to find the most trouble possible on Ice Cold Soul he definitely succeeded. I had seriously considered Pingshou at 25/1 but having looked back at Cheltenham discarded the idea. Perhaps Power made a difference but he was also helped by very little pace pressure and several of the opposition not turning up, most notable River Wylde who looked very awkward. I just missed the 9/2 on Fox Norton so left him alone as well. He ran out a very easy winner. Josh Moore did very well do get a place out of Traffic Fluide. I really thought that Katnap would run the leader down but it was not to be. The really bad blunder didn’t help his cause. It was a very strange ride from De Boinville on Constantine Bay. He scrubbed the horse along for most of the journey but when he appeared to get close enough to win the jock seemed to reduce rather than maximise his effort. The two bumper horses bombed, Some Reign took a bad bump early and pulled for most of the race and it appears King Of Realms has gone backwards.
Hopefully, I have done enough to maintain the competition lead. Tomorrow’s thoughts a bit later. You will be pleased to know I can’t find a bookmaker offering ‘not to finish’ odds. Disgraceful!
A few more bets tomorrow but several of the markets look a fairly accurate reflection of the chances.
I backed No Hassle Hoff at double figures earlier and he has been smashed up. If only it was that simple. Barney Dwan ran into a Graded horse at Cheltenham and a reproduction of that effort would give him every chance. The flat track and quick ground should be ideal for Brio Conti. He was massively impressive at Kempton and I will be disappointed if he gets beat. No bet in the next, it is just a question as to whether Charbel can reproduce his last run. I shall probably leave the next alone as well. Starchitect the most likely but too short for me; Our Kaempfer has the ability to win but needs everything to go his way. Yanworth might outclass the stayers but I have chanced Supasundae each-way at a bit bigger than current prices. Money about for Snow Falcon but he is a shocking jumper and I can envisage mistakes putting him out of contention. My National threesome all appear to be on the drift. I can understand One For Arthur but not so much the other two. They will probably all contract again tomorrow. Similarly to the opener the market leaders look the most obvious in the last. Wakea effectively wrecked the County Hurdle for many and it will be interesting to see if he blasts off again. Very few horses make all at these Festivals.
Completely wrote him off Moe, he couldn’t possibly place in a spring ground Topham :wacko:……………I just hope the jockey does even better tomorrow, he owes me from a couple of years back on Our Father, I don’t forget these things lol
Yeah stilvi, I thought that Sumkindofking looked nailed on, but he just went out like a light, I hate seeing that. I had it with Definite Ruby last weekend. I thought Fox Norton looked superb, and if he were mine, he’d be up in trip immediately, I was very impressed. I can’t believe Katnap didn’t get up, I wasn’t exactly screaming him home, not my biggest bet of the season, but it would have been nice, as my record in The Topham is atrocious.
In the 1425, it has to be Captain Forez. He’s more one for fences, and I think he’ll be dynamite over them, but I thought he’d be a lot, lot shorter, and can’t believe the 25’s. I can’t have him out the frame.
100% no bet in The Novice Chase, though I’ll be watching Charbel with interest, with a view to next season.
I love the look of The Betway Handicap, my type of race, and I’ve bet Sizing Codelco ew at 22’s. He was mentioned as The Tizzards “secret” good thing of the week at Cheltenham, but he flopped. I thought more would be made of it, but there were clearly problems in The Tizzard Camp at the time, and if over what was ailing him, that was too big a price to ignore. I’ve had a fairly big bet on him.
I had a laugh at your comment about not being able to find “a horse not to finish” market, I can’t possibly guess what horse you had in mind. If you do find that market, I do hope you won’t be collecting on it.
As for The National itself, I am still keen on Cause of Causes. I’ve been struggling to find a single negative for him, other than he’s already ran in it, but I just wonder, is there a problem in the Elliot yard??? As much as The Topham is my kind of race, it’s not one I really have bigger bets in, but I had a few more quid than usual on Clarcam of Elliots, and he was terrible. Might be nothing in it, but just an observation.
I’ve given my thoughts on all the runners on the last page, but I still have my “day of the race” bet to do, and I am torn between Drop Out Joe, and Rogue Angel, and as it’s a “what the hell” day, I might just do the pair of them.
Good luck with the Saturday bets, and I hope you win the competition.
Thanks, not so sure anyone else does.
My comments about the not to finish bet were a little tongue-in-cheek. Because I don’t use the exchanges it would be a once in a season lay bet. Presumably, although it always used to be available it is either considered ‘bad form’ or gives clued up punters too much chance of winning. To me it doesn’t make sense not to have it when they offer markets such as the not to be placed with odds of 1/500 and such like. Pointless. I would only have tried to cover the stake on my selections.
I won’t count any chickens on the competition front. It has been a good few years now and I can’t remember winning anything similar. Katnap might have effectively sewn things up and given me a chance to top the leaderboard on each day but it didn’t quite happen. The nature of the races still makes it uncertain. Quite possible I could have a blank day and someone lands a big one.
Two final thoughts for today. I hope they haven’t over-watered the main track – that would be a massive negative for Brio Conti – and the unseasonally hot weather doesn’t take a toll on the horses. Crowds might like hot weather but I am pretty sure it isn’t a plus for horses running 4m+.
Good luck.
Bob i like Henri Parri Morgan in 3m chase today any views on race
Finians Oscar in novice race
My bets in national are
THE YOUNG MASTER 33/1
MORE OF THAT 40/1
VICENTE 33/1
LORD WINDENMERE 50/1
MEASAUREOFMYDREAMS 50/1Any views on Scottish national and Bet 365 cup at Sandown to.
Darren, I’ve bet Sizing Codelco in that chase at 22’s
I’ve started a Scottish National thread already……….have you not seen it????I’ve put my early fancies up, and already bet Kruzhlinin, and Fine Rightly. I’ll stick a Bet365 Gold Cup thread up next week, and early fancies are Rock The Kasbah 33’s, and Pendra around 20’s.
Stilvi, I knew the comment was a bit of fun, I still hope you’re very wrong though haha.
I think they’re a cert to have overwatered, and I’ll be happy to be with outsiders today. As for the hot weather, I’ve put up here several times over the year, that we just don’t help ourselves running it when we do, it should be at the end of March for sure.
Good luck today
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