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Stilvi, Minella Foru did me a proper turn last year in The Paddy Power, he’s a decent horse, and it will be hard to take if he wins and I’m not on him, but you can’t bet em all. Abolitionist is solid as well, he did me the last time when I was on Folsom Blue, and I can’t see him having stopped progressing.
No other solid views yet, but looking forward to having a proper look tonight.
Just had a look at tomorrow’s card.
I won’t get involved in the first two races but it might be worth having a look at Wherehaveyoubeen for future reference. He is related to Get Me Out Of Here and Rock On The Moor.
Let’s Dance is going to be very tough to beat but far too short for me.
You can probably guess my bet of the day, Road To Respect.
I am probably going out on a limb but at the moment I view Yorkhill as the most overrated horse in training. I thought he fell over the line in a very poor Grade 1 at the Festival. I don’t buy into the idling excuses and I think a Gold Cup challenge is complete pie in the sky. I think that Sizing John is significantly better (and more reliable) whatever the trip. Consequently, for me he is an absolutely hideous price tomorrow. The question mark is whether Road To Respect can translate the big field handicap form. I would like to see Cooper let him bowl and make this a proper test, failing that to at least sit close enough and be ready to make an early move.
Lesley Dawn was one of fillies I was referring to (Sizing Stephanie is the one that doesn’t run) and she is a half sister to Shirley Casper, Oligarch Society, Thunder And Roses and Wrath Of Titans. It is a top family that also includes the likes of Bishops Island and Stopped. I couldn’t back her in this, particularly with Harrington on board, but clearly she is well worth a watch for the future. Red Jack’s form has been boosted and will no doubt be pretty short.
have gone with Ballybolley in the opener on the basis the only time he has looked useful over obstacles was over course and distance
Nice pick Stilvi
Yeah, well done stilvi.
I’m just in and haven’t seen the race yet, but from looking at the result on RP, looks as if he won nicely enough. Ballinvarrig was my main interest of the day, but with him being a non runner, I decided to swerve the racing today, as it was a good Saturday to miss. Checking the results, my systems horses have been poor as well, so looks like I picked a good day to miss, as I’d probably have had a few quid on Midnight Shot, who appears to have reverted to type at Haydock.
Popping out again, but will have a look at tomorrows cards later on (I’ll definitely be betting tomorrow), and reply to your earlier post when I’ve had a proper look.
Thanks both, you can never quibble with a 5/1 on a difficult day, particularly if it wins like a 1/5 shot. I wonder if he can disappoint enough times to get himself into the race again next year.
I added Limited Reserve to Valhalla in the other race for a small loss. Valhalla ran a strange race. Pretty sure the jock wanted to make the running but he has ended up last before finishing a never nearer sixth.
Irish National
I’m on Fletchers Flyer at 32’s, so won’t complain with that result, but I’ve laid off most of that to be in a nice green position now.I’m obviously touting Tiger Roll for greatness, but if I’ve got their MO right, this will not be his day. If I could stick my neck out, I’d go as far as saying he’ll pull up.
I’m going a bit nuts with General Principle here now. I’ve a few quid on, and I’ll definitely be looking to lay in running.
General Principle 40’s ew 5 places
Fletchers Flyer 32’s Laid 8’s
Bless The Wings 20’s ew 6 placesI’ll pass over the Let’s Dance race for the reasons you gave, but I thought you might be tempted by Colin’s Sister for a small each way??
I’ve been patiently waiting for Neverushacon to re-appear (don’t know if he had a setback) after a couple of runs that really caught the eye. I thought he showed plenty of promise behind Tiger Roll last summer, and I was very impressed with him at Limerick when he won. There’s the chance that tomorrow is not the day, and that the plan is Punchestown, but I have to have him onside tomorrow, and he’s a big price at 16’s.
I agree with you, and disagree with you on Yorkhill……..if that makes any sense at all. I think he’s a very very good horse, though quirky with it, and as a result of those quirks, he tends to, or certainly did for a while, get underrated. The problem I have with him though, is that a result of the large support he has now, he probably has a larger following, and bigger reputation, than he actually deserves on what he’s achieved so far. Apologies if that doesn’t make much sense, it does to me………..just.
I was pleased to see him win in The JLT though, as it was a race with no real financial interest for me, and always like to see the promising ones win, and I do believe he is very promising. Long road to go though before Gold Cups can be mentioned, but I don’t think it’s completely beyond him.
He is though, of course, an absurdly short price tomorrow, and despite my interest in Baily Cloud (on ew 3 places 50’s, and 2 places 66’s) the race is all about Road To Respect for me as well. I think he’ll handle the step up into this company with little difficulty, and 6’s is a smashing price. He looks a real player tomorrow, and he can’t be far away. I think we’ll be discussing him at length next season, he looks like his future surely belongs in Graded company. Nice race, and will be keeping an eye on Ball D’Arc as well, with an eye to the future.
Nothing of interest in the 1635, and won’t be having a bet in the last either, but you’re not normally far off the mark with these bumpers, and I like the relations of Lesley Dawn, so I will watch the race to see how she looks (a bit of support for her just now)
I like a few away from Fairyhouse tomorrow.
He always finds a couple too good, but I just can’t resist A Decent Excuse at 16’s each way in the 1720 at Cork. He’s paid his way for me over the years this boy, usually only for a place mind, and he looks good for it tomorrow. Less profitable for me has been Pairofbrowneyes, but he’s getting one more chance at 8’s win.
Away from Ireland, Aubusson looks interesting at Ffos Las. 6’s is not my kind of price normally, but I’ll make an exception tomorrow, and it’ll be a win bet.
Nice days racing, really looking forward to it, and can afford a wee bit more on, having sat things out today. Now just to spread that cash around “sensibly”…………….in other words, don’t put it all on the outsiders lol
Good luck.
I’ll pass over the Let’s Dance race for the reasons you gave, but I thought you might be tempted by Colin’s Sister for a small each way??
I am always looking first and foremost at each-way prices (I don’t have anything like the strike rate to back shorties on a regular basis) but if it is single figures I like to be more than hopeful of the win part of the bet and also in this race there are only two places. It is hard to see any negatives for Let’s Dance and I am not sure what I view as a speed track will suit Colin’s Sister. She might be taken out of her comfort zone and that could put undue pressure on her jumping which isn’t always fluent.
I should have said that the Potts filly that didn’t run today, Sizing Stephanie, is a half sister to Prince Of Scars and Folsom Blue. I think she was more expensive than Lesley Dawn.
Hopefully, we can get something between us today, although as I write all my eggs are still in one basket.
Stroke of good fortune today. I was disappointed that Road To Respect needed so much help from Yorkhill.
Let’s Dance ran perfectly well but confirmed the perils of backing short prices. I struggle to get David Mullins right. He seems to flit between inspired and inept.
Talking of inept the bumper horse carted the jock and will be much better judged with someone else on board.
I think I will leave them alone tomorrow as I couldn’t find a decent enough saver to cover the National horses. Ex Patriot ran very well at the Festival but given that he isn’t straightforward and represents an inexperienced trainer/jock combination 9/4 could hardly be considered value. Sutton Place is promising but despite the two course wins I am not sure this track plays to his strengths. I am a bit confused by the presence of Our Duke in the National. They said they wanted to mind him so kept him away from the RSA but he ends up running in one of the most competitive handicaps of the season? Given the complete disregard for punters I hope he doesn’t figure. One horse who will not be figuring is Bonny Kate who appears to have ‘gone’ this season. I backed Product Of Love when he won his bumper but that was a long time ago and it would be a surprise if Samcro isn’t able to concede a few pounds.
Very quick reply stilvi as away for an overnight.
I’ve only seen the Road To Respect finish, and though Yorkhill gave it away, I still think there is a lot to be taken from how he was finishing at the end. I don’t think you’ll necessarily agree with this, but I do think he might be worth stepping up next year, but regardless of how they target him, I think they’ve got a nice horse on their hands.
I missed all the other racing, but I’ll have a look, and give my thoughts tonight when I get a minute haha.
I’ll hopefully get on later for some Trifectas, but a bit rushed as I said, and the only 2 I’m definitely betting today, away from The Irish National, are Sonny B, and Folsom Blue.
As for Our Duke, totally agree. You can’t swerve Cheltenham to give your horse an easy time of it, and then run him in The Irish National. Fair enough if he wins it, and he’s good enough to do it, but why not just say this is the plan all along………….which I suspect it always was.
I think I made the right decision in leaving them alone, at best I would have about broken even.
It was one of the most uneventful Irish Nationals I can remember. Most years they go a million miles over the first few fences and there are a few casualties, even that didn’t happen. Once the small group broke away Our Duke was going to win if he stayed. I think Abolitionist was little unfortunate not to finish second. The win left a very sour taste but as a punter you have to move on. The same thing will happen again. Looking ahead I don’t think the winner is in the same league as Sizing John. He is clearly a strong stayer but his jumping is far from fluent and I would have my doubts about him coping with the trickier fences and undulations of Cheltenham.
I think I called the juvenile correct. It was always going to be more tactical than the Triumph and I think Blackmore was exposed against Townend and Gerraghty.
Tomorrow I have just backed the front two in the very modest handicap chase. I might leave it at that and just have a bash at the Forum competition.
Of the other races you could easily take six in the three mile novice and not get the winner. I would like to give Ice Cold Soul another chance but he was woeful at Aintree. Not sure how much that was the Cooper ride because he shouldn’t have had an issue with the trip. At least Meade is amongst the winners.
I wish I had left them alone, as just didn’t go to plan at all, and Folsom Blue and Sonny B were well beaten.
Yeah, very strange race today, and didn’t “feel” like an Irish National at all. I was very lucky to be in profit beforehand, and had my returns from General Principle and Bless The Wings as well. Always been a lucky race for me The Irish National, and had many decent returns from it, but it may just be the case that with the vastly increased prize money, new methods will have to be employed to nab the winner. I really do feel for those who backed him for Cheltenham, and as you said, it left a bad taste in the mouth. It was very disappointing to see Harrington get interviewed after the race, and she acted with a degree of rather contrived bemusement at the notion of him going to Cheltenham. Paraphrasing slightly “Oh he was never going to Cheltenham, and he didn’t even get an entry for The RSA” Hmmmm, yes, that’s not the point though, he was at the head of the market for The RSA for over a month, and it was only when the entries were revealed, that you decided to inform us that he wasn’t going. I’ve always followed the Harrington yard, and I didn’t have a penny on Our Duke, so not pocket talking, but the whole episode was disgusting.
Still not the horses fault, and I’d actually be quite keen on him for Cheltenham. I thought he was excellent, and can only see him improving, and think he could be a real star.
Good luck with your 2 in the novice chase. I should leave them alone, as been a disappointing meeting, but might as well have another go.
In the 1610, I’m torn between Woods Well & Sutton Manor, while in the 1640, I’ll definitely have to cover Ivan Grozny & Modem, along with my main fancy Joey Sasa. In the rest of the card, I will side with Cecil Corbett, B L Swagger, and Jetz.
Good luck
I did try and send you a pm last night but it said the box was full?
Sorry to say I have added Ivan Grozny (still thinking about Ice Cold Soul) so let’s hope Mullins is more inspired than inept this time!
I’ll sort out my inbox tonight, when I get in from work, been meaning to do it for a while.
I think Ivan Grozny has a great chance today. If he’s in the same mood as at Aintree last year, then top weight won’t make a difference. I’ve bet all 3 selections in that race ew as well, so hoping for a change of fortune after yesterday.
Good luck
I’ll sort out my inbox tonight, when I get in from work, been meaning to do it for a while.
I think Ivan Grozny has a great chance today. If he’s in the same mood as at Aintree last year, then top weight won’t make a difference. I’ve bet all 3 selections in that race ew as well, so hoping for a change of fortune after yesterday.
Good luck
Thanks.
Must have taken him out straight after I placed the bet. I will take the hint and leave the race alone, particularly as three places 1/4 is hardly in the punters favour.
I’ll sort out my inbox tonight, when I get in from work, been meaning to do it for a while.
I think Ivan Grozny has a great chance today. If he’s in the same mood as at Aintree last year, then top weight won’t make a difference. I’ve bet all 3 selections in that race ew as well, so hoping for a change of fortune after yesterday.
Good luck
Thanks.
Must have taken him out straight after I placed the bet. I will take the hint and leave the race alone, particularly as three places 1/4 is hardly in the punters favour.
In hindsight it should have been another total leave alone day.
You have too learn from your mistakes. Those two market leaders looked pretty obvious but were probably the first two beaten in a dire race. The casualties made the finishing positions look much better than they were. In truth the performances were putrid and it seems to happen too often in those circumstances. Another good advert for leaving the relative shorties alone.
Ice Cold Soul ran another shocker. In four starts he has done next to nothing for Cooper.
Thomond and Ice Cold Soul couldn’t have turned in worse performances but Meade has then gone on to have a first and second in the bumpers? Does he go in and out of form every half-an-hour?
A very difficult three punting days and I only turned a profit by restricting myself to three betsand even the winner was fortunate. Hopefully, Punchestown will be better.
Newmarket provided everything that is bad about the Flat season – split fields, horses not handling the track, horses pulling too hard, horses using the track as a schooling ground and of course that old favourite, mediocre rides. A pin would have been the most useful tool for the competition.
Fingers crossed for Benbatl on Thursday. At least Godolphin seem to have their team in reasonable shape.
Baily Cloud, just missing out on 3rd, would have made it better, but sometimes times you just have to take it on the chin. Same again today, with Cecil Corbett falling at the second last when looking like the winner, and Woods Well getting hampered when travelling like the winner.
I’ll be looking for Woods Well to make amends at Punchestown, and if Neverushacon turns back out there, I’ll be having a decent go on him as well.
I actually made a few quid today from various perms, and a nice each way on Sutton Manor, so I recovered well.
Well done on making a profit, not easy at that meeting. I thought Thomond was going to be a horse to follow 2 or 3 years back, but he’s clearly had his issues, and he’s not one I’d trust. I just can’t get Meade at all. Nothing against the man, but rarely get a winner from him, and as I mentioned before, everything I bet of his, seems to fall.
Roll on Punchestown.
I wouldn’t normally look at The Craven Meeting, for all the reasons you gave above, but as Nath was running a comp, I thought I might as well back a couple.
The Craven Meeting is everything that’s wrong with the Flat, and you can see people, including on here, living in the past, and trying to overdo the enthusiasm for it. It’s a damp squib these days.
It worked wonders though, as El Astronaute won at 12’s for me. Nathan, if you read this then many thanks, as I wouldn’t have backed it otherwise. The other one I bet was Lavetta, but he didn’t seem to have figured.
I’ll probably back a couple of them again tomorrow. I had a quick look at The Cheltenham Card, and Village Vic, Its’afreebee, Fourth Act, Iora Glas, and Solatentif all look interesting. I’ll have a few perms on the go tomorrow for sure.
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