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D-Day tomorrow Stilvi.
We’re both looking for a slightly different outcome, but let’s hope we’re both fairly happy this time tomorrow.
Not been able to post this week as old age finally took its toll on my computer.
Hopefully, I didn’t miss too much midweek. I was quite impressed with Pougne Bobbi at Ludlow. Not so impressed with Alan King suggesting Master Blueyes was likely to miss Cheltenham after his win on the same card. He isn’t a Grade 1 horse so, unless he needs a flat track, the Fred Winter should remain the logical target. Either way he needs to brush up his hurdling.
That was a fantastic performance by Altior. I think he is the best horse in training, probably by a margin. It probably isn’t going to happen anytime soon but I would love to see him take down Douvan.
Not at all surprised by Native River. As I strongly suggested at the time Bristol De Mai would never reproduce his lofty rating away from Haydock.
That was a tremendously game win by Tobefair. It would cap the story if he could win a Pertemps.
I was on Clyne and De Name Escapes Me in the Betfair. Clyne ran very well but his cause wasn’t helped by Ballyhill who removed any chance of an easy lead before dropping away to finish last. Job done. Coleman got the opposite of a tune out of De Name Escapes Me and you wouldn’t imagine that he would be on board again.
I think At Rainbow’s End is one to watch out for from the Naas card. She was returning after a long absence and despite racing too freely she again showed plenty of promise. A drop in trip and better ground should see her more competitive. Carter McKay was an easy winner of the bumper but unfortunately, Sarah O’Brien looked like a fish out of water on West Coast Time. That is almost certainly goodbye Cheltenham bumper.
D-Day tomorrow. I would have preferred better ground and more of a pace angle but fingers crossed he can overcome both of those difficulties. Even more resting on it now with a number of ante-post bets looking distinctly fragile. It would top the lot if they suddenly decided the Supreme was the better option for Finian’s Oscar.
I sympathise, my Laptop is on it’s last legs, and TRF isn’t I-Phone friendly, so if my laptop goes, I might disappear for a wee while.
Yeah, Pougne Bobbi looked a nice prospect the other day, and I’ll be keeping a close eye on him.
Altior was awesome yesterday, and gun to my head, I think he might just take Douvan if they met. Neither has been up against that much, but Altior just looks to have more to offer.
I was impressed by Bristol De Mai at Haydock, but thought that his price for The Gold Cup was a bit skinny off the back of it, and although I feared the worst for Native River yesterday, off the back of my bet on him, deep down I knew Native was the better horse. Trying to keep my feet on the ground with him, and keeping my thoughts about him to this thread, but I’m very very happy with him…………so far. Been stung before, and Gold Cup Day still a long way off.
Boite and Veinard, both Ante-Post were my only bets yesterday, and my current policy of not betting on Saturdays is paying it’s way, as I’d have had a few losers yesterday.
I love stories like the Tobefair one, and with me not having a Pertemps horse at the moment (slight fancy for Wotzizname) I might just side with him, and jump on the bandwagon.
I didn’t clock De Name Escapes me yesterday, but I bet him last time, and I think you could get your money back on him before the seasons out.
Good luck with Rainbows End at Naas today, and you make a good case, but I won’t jink you by joining you. A small Lucky 31 for me today, with Sword Fighter, Ballymalin, What’s Happening, Empire of Dirt, and Dandridge. I’m a big fan of What’s Happening, and a good run at Exeter today would bring him bang into contention for one of the staying handicaps at The Festival.
I’m slightly different today, with the pressure of Ante-Post, thanks to Champagne West, but a big run from Empire would be the icing on the cake, as would a respectable, but just out of the frame run from More of That, who I’ve got a few bets tied up with. I’ve also been on Minella Rocco since the start of the season, so todays race is of huge importance to me.
Obviously disappointed but he has come there cantering in a Grade 1. Absolutely no doubt in my mind that he would have won with a stronger pace and better ground. I still maintain he would have a favourite’s chance in the Ryanair and a chance to at least place in a Gold Cup.
I have always preferred a little bit of intuition to ratings but either way the Gold Cup looks up for grabs. Sadly, I think Gigginstown might be swayed by that thought.
Personally, I think a low 170’s will be good enough to go very close. There are probably quite a few horses in that 160-165 bracket. If I heard it correctly Sizing John was 164 before today’s race. He clearly hasn’t deteriorated for the step up in trip. It would seem reasonable to give him 166 which would put Empire Of Dirt on 165, another 5lbs improvement. The key for me is that improvement has come despite the two major negatives which I highlighted beforehand, namely ground and particularly the lack of pace. I don’t think it is inconceivable that had they gone a proper pace (I have suggested before that Gigginstown should employ a pacemaker) that Empire Of Dirt might well have won today’s race barely coming off the bridle. At least he showed he was well able to battle if needed. If they can freshen him up I feel pretty sure that he could find another 7lbs. As I have stated on other threads I would have Thistlecrack around 162. On bare form that is all he deserves. On that basis Empire Of Dirt, having now confirmed himself at Grade 1 level, remains a very big price for both the Ryanair and Gold Cup.
Checking to see if I’d had any bets today I realised I’d had a quick ew on Sizing John for the GC last night just in case it appeared that he did stay the trip. Doubt if I’ve got a nice priced GC winner on my hands but at least I’ve now got one fairly decent ante post bet to look forward to. VtC; as I’m so out of touch with racing at the moment I am depending on you having a working computer for Cheltenham!
Nice one with Sizing John Moe, and I don’t know so much, I reckon he’s a cert to go for Gold now.
My Laptop is hanging on in there moe, and with the Ten To Follow to do, as well as TRF vs Pricewise, I don’t think it would be a good idea for it to pack in between now and then, not to mention all the chat I would miss on this thread.
So close yet so far today. No complaints getting beaten by Sizing John, but as they crossed the line, I was a lot happier. I thought that run screamed Gold Cup to me, the way he was running on at the end, but was a bit surprised to hear afterwards, that Elliott prefers The Ryanair now. I agree with your pace angle completely, and I think on another day, Empire really would have won that comfortably.
He’s clearly a G1 Horse now, albeit at 10, and surely their priority now is Ryanair or Gold Cup, rather than Aintree. They can consider that later. I’ll settle for The Ryanair, but on a selfish and financial note, I still harbour hopes he’ll end up in The Gold Cup, and I thought it was a good trial for that race.
As I said yesterday, I hoped we’d both be fairly happy tonight, and I think that sums it up…….fairly happy, but not delighted.
Other than not securing a 9/2 winner (on a day when I had backed Whatmore without the favourite and Carraig Mor at Exeter) I was very pleased that the horse proved himself. You can very easily set yourself up for a fall. His jumping was again very good and it wasn’t his fault at the last. In fact he did pretty well to avoid an error. That loss of impetus probably cost him two lengths.
Dear old Ding Ding wins again at Plumpton; Sheena West, Mark Goldstein combo at Plumpton again; forget yer Mullins and Ruby stuff. Now hope that
Timmy can boot one in for me at Wolverhampton!Nice price for Ding Ding as well……..Fingers crossed for you at Wolves Moe
Any chance Graham Lee in the bumper tomorrow?
I’ve watched it again, and it still screams Gold Cup to me, but I suppose that may be my pocket talking. I agree with your point elsewhere though, and why he isn’t favourite now for Ryanair I do not know.
Very unlucky yesterday with Whatmore and Carraig Mor, both travelling nicely when the accidents happened.
I haven’t looked at tomorrow yet but I think the bubble has burst with Graham Lee’s bumper rides. They’re good races to check the last minute betting patterns with, though; something I can do now I’m retired!I only had bets today because Mike told me Adam was riding [one of his a NR though]. He is, I believe, related to Ridley Lamb and we follow his rides with great interest.
Oh to be retired moe. That’s a shame the bubble has burst with Lee, but that only means you’ll start getting a price again soon.
Noticed yesterday that Heron Heights who I mentioned in respect of the National Hunt Chase had his comeback run at Naas. No obvious promise but everything was against him. He did at least settle well and I still think he is worth a look upped in trip on much quicker ground.
Beginning to wish I had remained computerless for a bit longer as punting is very difficult at the moment. Nothing more on the ante-post front; Tobefair was 12/1 when I mentioned him but he now looks ridiculous at half the price for the Pertemps and Altior, Douvan and On The Fringe all look hard to oppose but are too short for me to be interested in.
I took Heron Heights in one of the comps at the weekend, and he was never in contention. Yeah, he is crying out for a step up in trip, and he looks the type who’ll be a staple in the big handicaps in Ireland for a few years now. Funny you mention him, I had meant to ask you if you caught his race.
Punting is hard going for me just now at the moment. Finishing off my Ante-Posts, and bar The Ultima, where I had decent bets on Cause of Causes (looks doubtful now) and Holywell, I’ve promised myself to take it easy until day of the race, and just a few quid here and there on the race. I’m sitting tight with what I’ve got in The National as well, so not much doing at all for me at the moment, barely had a non Ante-Post bet for the last few weeks, bar one here and there.
Yeah, those 3 are very short, too short for me, but very hard to oppose them.
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