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If we don’t go by form and we try to make excuses like needing runs, lacking fitness etc then cases can be made for Mught Bite and Thistlecrack.
The King George is just too classy to be won by a horse with excuses. Wouldn’t back Thistlecrack at all.
Did Dessie, One Man, Best Mate, Kicking King, Kauto Star, Long Run have that many excuses before they won a KG? Might Bite would be a very exceptional horse if he’d win it and Thistlecrack just isn’t too good for it…..Let’s hope for Bristol De Mai and the Lancashire Chase form!
Last year’s renewal was bobbins. That’s my opinion. End of.
Merry Christmas to you, Steve. End of.
Value Is EverythingI think we are looking a gift horse in the mouth here; BDMs credentials are outstanding. Two wins, highly-rated opponents who have franked the form since. Appreciate the Might Bite could be anything, but afterwards we’ll be asking why we didn’t believe our eyes when we watched BDM’s Haydock stroll
For those who value official ratings: interesting to note that Might Bite is rated superior to just 2 of his rivals tomorrow and that were it a handicap he’d be getting 2lbs from Tea For Two.
Summat wrong somewhere.
On ORs, Bristol De Mai has close to a stone in hand of the fav.
Exactly. BDM’s form is exceptional and I believe it will take an exceptional horse to beat him but the reality is Might Bite could well be exceptional. If Might Bite wins this tomorrow then he’s the real deal and himself and the winner of the Lexus will take their place at the top of the market for March 16th.
11/8 or 5/4 is just way too short with the class in the field tomorrow.
In many ways the Lexus (or whatever they call it now) is a similar race. Sizing John has the form and is proven. Yorkhill is the Might Bite of Ireland. The Gold Cup market will be taking shape by this time next week
Big question for me is what price would Thistlecrack be had he won or just been touched off at Newbury.
He’d be no bigger than 3/1 imo and that leads to the next question: do you believe the Newbury run was down to a lack of fitness?
He appears to be standing up to training. He travelled very sweetly for a long time at Newbury and doesn’t look like he’s fallen out of love with the game. His Cheltenham defeat by Many Clouds seems to have tarnished his image to an unforgivable degree with some; the only question it raised for me was, which is his weakness, stamina or lack of appetite for a battle? That question has still not been answered but might be tomorrow given the pace this is likely to be run at. Had I not gone all in on Bristol De Mai here, I’d make Thistlecrack the bet EW and will probably talk myself into backing him.
I agree Joe, if Thistlecrack had run well at Newbury he’d be at least 3/1. Although I never feel the need to answer questions with a wholehearted yes or no. For me, the question of “do you believe the Newbury run was down to a lack of fitness”? Can only be answered by one of two words, not yes or no but “probably” or “possibly”… imo I have it as a probably not entirely down to fitness… And that is allowed for in the price am willing to take. As I say, the Many Clouds defeat at least as good as the King George victory. I wouldn’t say his “appetite for a battle” is poor as such… Travelled better than Many Clouds but we know MC always found a hell of a lot for pressure – more than the vast majority of racehorses. Rounding the home turn at Kempton, Thistlecrack looked as though he’d win the 2016 King George with greater ease than than he eventually did – although still quite easy. Wouldn’t say he’s ungenuine, just think it’s just a tendency to tank through his races where as others find more off the bridle. May be that’s because he’s found life effortless since stepping up in trip in his novice days.
As you say, had Thistlecrack run well he’d be 3/1. Or to put it another way: If connections (anyone that has anything to do with the horse and stable) if they knew he was back to last year’s form would Thistlecrack be allowed to be 7/1? For me, the price of 7/1 is in itself a negative. Strangely, if a positive market move shortening up to 5/1 that would be a sign of being back to his best – 5/1 would imo be “better value” at that point than 7/1 is now, because the liklihood right now is he’s not the horse of last year.
Value Is EverythingBDM has to prove he can replicate his soft/heavy ground form on a sounder surface (assuming it doesn’t get much soft than currently described) and whilst his Wetherby form has worked out he beat predominately long distance stayers in Blaklion & Definitly Red (Grand National candidates) who would both be nearer to Tea For Two’s price if running in this race.
Might Bite’s price is based on what he could be and not what he has actually done on the track (2 defeats of Whisper is not outstandingly brilliant form and a race where he was running a faster time than last year’s KG over the same course and distance before taking a x rated fall at the last) – Fox Norton comes into the race in somewhat similar circumstances as Dessie although I would liken him much more to Remittance Man.
Happy to steer clear of TC until he has shown me he is somewhere near the same horse he was before his injury (I will happily congratulate those who take a chance on him if he wins). Whisper would be interesting but Davy Russell seems to get a good tune out of him and while Coleman is a good jockey it wouldn’t be the ideal set of circumstances him being on for the first time.
For me the real interesting thing will be what happens up front – will MB, BDM & TC take each other on early and soften each other up for a closer late on like in Nupsala’s year.
For me Thistlecrack was always a tad overrated and the evidence of his last two runs and injury in between, I think he will be a lesser horse than he was in this last year, and for me, in what looks likely to be a true run race from start to finish, he’ll struggle…especially when the chips are down and he’s asked for an effort, can see a similar ending for him as last time out..
When we look at official ratings, especially with Might Bite you have to then look at Whisper..in all known evidence Whisper is NOT a 7lbs better horse like his rating suggests. That means either Might Bite is some way better than his current mark or Whisper is a little overrated…I know which I think..
You’ve also to factor in course form and conditions, surely? If it was at Haydock on boggy ground I’d fully expect BDM to run right up to his best…when there’s been good in the ground description what’s the best rating he has run to though?
It’s why I think Tea For Two is a cracking each way bet…yard in blistering form, ground shouldn’t be a problem and has excellent record round Kempton…I fully expect him to run right up to his mark and maybe a few pounds better…for me, there’s only Might Bite who could potentially be a fair bit better than that at this course with these conditions..
Am pretty sure Jacob will not be drawn into a battle up front. If they tear off he’ll sit until they begin to show signs of tiring. Can see him going on five out and pressing on at his strong one pace all the way to the line.
That said, Nico won’t want a battle either. It could turn out an interesting tactical race.
If BDM does sit tracking the pace be doing something he’s not done when winning impressively. I don’t think leading is important, but having a clear view of his fences might be.
May be not a duel, but am hoping they get racing from some way out for it to be a thorough test of stamina at the trip – having nothing left for when Whisper comes at them over the last.
Value Is EverythingMight Bite wins this, by a fair margin too I’d say. He carried my money at Cheltenham, and also when he fell here last year. He’s to short for me to punt tomorrow. He will cream it though, and be hailed as the new star (Cheltenham is not for him though).
I’ve had a few large wagers on Henderson’s Reigning Supreme in the earlier Novice Handicap chase, on his debut over fences. Good horse, a very nice chaser in the making. 11-2 was a steal IMO.
For me Thistlecrack was always a tad overrated and the evidence of his last two runs and injury in between, I think he will be a lesser horse than he was in this last year, and for me, in what looks likely to be a true run race from start to finish, he’ll struggle…especially when the chips are down and he’s asked for an effort, can see a similar ending for him as last time out..
When we look at official ratings, especially with Might Bite you have to then look at Whisper..in all known evidence Whisper is NOT a 7lbs better horse like his rating suggests. That means either Might Bite is some way better than his current mark or Whisper is a little overrated…I know which I think..
You’ve also to factor in course form and conditions, surely? If it was at Haydock on boggy ground I’d fully expect BDM to run right up to his best…when there’s been good in the ground description what’s the best rating he has run to though?
It’s why I think Tea For Two is a cracking each way bet…yard in blistering form, ground shouldn’t be a problem and has excellent record round Kempton…I fully expect him to run right up to his mark and maybe a few pounds better…for me, there’s only Might Bite who could potentially be a fair bit better than that at this course with these conditions..
Can see where you’re coming from here, Zammer. Trainer form is something I’ve had an interest in for some time. Where as Nick Williams is now in great form, Nigel Twister was in good form going in to the Betfair and (although not in bad form) not so good now. Track and time of year also positives for Tea For Two, having won the novice chase at this meeting and a then career best performance in this race last year. Travelled well for a long way at Haydock and will be better off at this course and back to a bare 3m… However, there’s nothing TFT has done that persuades me he’s in the class of BDM, MB and T… And even though the class difference may alone enable me to back him @ around 28/1… What I believe is more important is – no getting away from the fact finished out on his feet at Haydock; having an extremely hard race. Asking a lot to bounce back with just a month to recover. If he’d not run there then I’d be very interested. Wish you all the best with your wager. I’ve met the part owner Len Jakeman a few times on course and if Whisper doesn’t win will be cheering on Tea For Two.
Value Is EverythingI’ve had a few large wagers on Henderson’s Reigning Supreme in the earlier Novice Handicap chase, on his debut over fences. Good horse, a very nice chaser in the making. 11-2 was a steal IMO.
surely you can’t be that confident of a first timer over fences in a competitive race like this, whatever his potential
Most of his posts are about backing the jolly at a much higher price than it is right now.
Far from it Judge, I’d rather back the horse tomorrow @ 11-2, than next time out when he’s gone up 10lb at a fraction of the price. He’s a gorgeous horse, whom I had marked down as a novice chaser to follow this season. I’m told he’s schooled well, and the fact he’s running first time up in a handicap on Boxing day (Henderson loves this meeting)… Spells a good punt to me.
Most of his posts are about backing the jolly at a much higher price than it is right now.
??? Happy Christmas to you too
I backed it five times with 365 yesterday at 11-2. 5-1 is still freely available right now as I type this. Want a bet it goes off at 3-1 or less?
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