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I have visions of Thistlecrack getting pulled up here. He was feeble when he needed to start getting into the race last time and there was next to zero zest about him. If there is a horse in the race living on hype, it is Thistlecrack.
Last year’s King George is the sole run of real substance but it was a virtual match according to the betting and Cue Card only held on for second by a hair from a horse gone at the game in Silviniaco Conti, who has needed a telescope to be spotted in all his other races.
I am not buying that Tizzard was as far off with Thistlecrack’s fitness level estimate as some people seem willing to believe. If my trainer told me the horse was ready to rock and roll, only for it to run the way the horse did, I would be looking for a new trainer. You just can’t be as far off as that and I suspect Tizzard is unwilling to accept that the horse just ran badly and may not the horse he was.
It’s all about weighing up the evidence. Did the horse run disappointingly? Is there a reason why that might have happened? When the answers to those two questions are yes and you felt you had the horse fit enough to go out and win, then it comes down to whether you are kidding yourself on and using hope, when the facts should be driving where you go with the horse.
Maybe I will be wrong, but there remains the chance that the Thistlecrack of last year may not be good enough to win this race with better challengers involved. I wouldn’t take him but good luck to those who are keeping the faith.
It should be a very informative race and there will be smiles and frowns in equal measure. Let’s just hope that there are no tears.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If he stays on his feet Might Bite wins and it’s really about how far. Let’s hope they all come home safe and sound
Merry Xmas to all – MB will be paying for mine
If there is a horse in the race living on hype, it is Thistlecrack
Thistlecrack “living on hype”.
That’s unbelievably harsh. For sure it wasn’t an outstanding King George that he won last year, Steve. But is anyone saying it was?
We know Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti weren’t at their bests, but Tea For Two went on to frank the form at Aintree. Point is Thistlecrack won the King George by showing a remarkable level of form for a novice that early in his first season chasing. Winning with a bit more in hand than the 3 1/4 lengths margin… And the Cotswold Chase second was at least as good as his Kempton victory; coming 17 lengths clear of the field. Lot of people don’t realise how good Many Clouds was. MC put up a performance seldom seen in the Grand National, winning by 1 3/4 lengths off a mark of 160. Also 4 lengths 2nd to Don Poli in a listed 3m1f chase over conventional Aintree fences while giving the winner 5 lbs (coming out best at the weights). Don Poli won the Lexus on his next start and then third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. ie Many Clouds form is of a high enough standard to place in the Gold Cup. No disgrace for Thistlecrack to finish a close runner-up to the game and genuine Many Clouds.However, unfortunately Thistlecrack had a tendon injury after the Cotswold and remains to be seen how much ability he retains. There’s a possibility needed the Newbury race for his first start back after injury/reappearance, but that’s imo unlikely because connections thought him fit and well. Although they often said the same about Cue Card on reappearance in the Charlie Hall too – and were wrong every year – so connections have previous with that sort of thing… Or it could be something is still hurting Thistlecrack’s tendon in his faster paces. Or may be he just isn’t as he was before injury – plenty of horses aren’t. If it wasn’t for the injury could’ve seen some progression this season. Needs to be better than ever to beat an on song Might Bite or Bristol De Mai. Whatever the reason for Newbury, needs to show a massive amount of improvement on that form in the space of just three weeks. So if “pulled up” or runs poorly it won’t be because of hype, sadly it will be due to injury.
Value Is EverythingLast year’s renewal was bobbins. That’s my opinion. End of.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
From what I can make out Vautour, it’s good to soft at present with some heavy rain
forecast late tonight, but pretty dry tomorrow. I doubt it will bring about any
significant change. It should be decent racing ground, with no excuses from any
taking part.I’m over 400 miles north of the course, maybe someone down that way might have a better
take on things.Live in London about 30 mins from Kempton by train – we have had rain (not heavy) early this morning, it is currently not raining and there is a bit of a breeze as well.
As of yesterday it was Good to Soft (Soft in places) but as you can see from the track map http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=kempton there are even a few odd spots of good ground to.
Big question for me is what price would Thistlecrack be had he won or just been touched off at Newbury.
He’d be no bigger than 3/1 imo and that leads to the next question: do you believe the Newbury run was down to a lack of fitness?
He appears to be standing up to training. He travelled very sweetly for a long time at Newbury and doesn’t look like he’s fallen out of love with the game. His Cheltenham defeat by Many Clouds seems to have tarnished his image to an unforgivable degree with some; the only question it raised for me was, which is his weakness, stamina or lack of appetite for a battle? That question has still not been answered but might be tomorrow given the pace this is likely to be run at. Had I not gone all in on Bristol De Mai here, I’d make Thistlecrack the bet EW and will probably talk myself into backing him.
Many Clouds’ time figure was very good, @StopwatchRacing rated it as 175, and the handicappers on both sides of the sea rated him as the best staying chaser that season. Why are we meant to assume that it was Thistlecrack under-performing and not a case of him being beaten by a better performance on the day? Many Clouds was better than ever last year; I backed him at 50/1 for the Gold Cup and said all along that he’d be the horse to beat Thistlecrack, so I wouldn’t be making any excuses for the Tizzard horse. If he Clouds hadn’t passed that day, I honestly believe he would have won the Gold Cup.
I think Thistlecrack will be suited by the pace this race is going to be ran at, and I don’t think the ground would be any bother to him. The word about him is very positive from the trainers and jockey. I took a chance on him at 8/1 after his Newbury flop.
Yep, fair comment Degaussed. Also, that was just his second run in open company over fences – quite remarkable when you think about it.
This could easily be one of those races after which many think, how did he go off at that price?
Until we see otherwise, you would have to put Newbury down to a lack of fitness with the horse blowing up badly two out – we are so used to horses winning or running well 1st time after a long lay offs that we take it as a given that a horses fitness now shouldn’t be an issue.
Watching the race he travelled with his usual zest and was pretty much last off the bridle before falling into a hole but Steep I do think there is something to your comment about a lack of resolve once he comes off the bridle and has to battle – most of his successes have been as a result of him tanking through a race and drawing clear without him having to go toe to toe with a rival until the Many Clouds race, maybe he is a bridle horse?
Hopefully, I think this race could give us answers to several questions we all have with the likes of TC, MB, BDM, FN & Whisper.
I can’t have it that thistlecrack was “hyped”. He has (had?)a wonderful motor and a real head down determination. Any challenger that got close would have had a fight.
I was at newbury and only watched the race live but am I alone in thinking he just looked a bit uncomfotable and the end of the race
Anitra side may be that now tizzard has so many horses to look after he’s not quite on top of their fitness. A few of his seem to be not exactly schooled wonderfully for jumping too. I like the guy a lot but it’s been quite a leap forward for the yard
I was at Cheltenham that day for the Cotswold and my immediate post-race impression was that Thistlecrack didn’t so much lack resolve as experience in a tight finish, almost as though he did not know what to do rather than didn’t want to do it.
That could be the case.
As has been said, many questions will be answered tomorrow. Let’s hope everything stands up and runs its race.
A lot of winners have had their previous run in the Lancashire Chase. In this case preference would have to be for Bristol De Mai, but somehow I’m not quite convinced that this is his favourite track. Instead I’ll stick with Fox Norton in the hope that he’ll stay the trip.
For me it’s a case of do I follow what the seasonal is telling me?
If you do it’s BDM. Even when you correct for the ground he has beaten Outlander, Cue Card, Blaklion and Definitely Red. That is red hot form on two different occasions. If we go with form we have to rule Thistlecrack out; well beaten by 4 staying hurdlers; one of whom, UNWIMH, has gone on since to finish 3rd.
Might Bite is somewhere in between, beating a donkey like Frodon by 8L is hardly great form but then again it’s still a win and like Thistlecrack, it’s still a first run.If we don’t go by form and we try to make excuses like needing runs, lacking fitness etc then cases can be made for Mught Bite and Thistlecrack.
Whatever happens, it will be educational. Fox Norton, unexposed over 3 miles could also win. It’s gonna be a great race
We know Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti weren’t at their bests, but Tea For Two went on to frank the form at Aintree. Point is Thistlecrack won the King George by showing a remarkable level of form for a novice that early in his first season chasing. Winning with a bit more in hand than the 3 1/4 lengths margin… And the Cotswold Chase second was at least as good as his Kempton victory; coming 17 lengths clear of the field. Lot of people don’t realise how good Many Clouds was. MC put up a performance seldom seen in the Grand National, winning by 1 3/4 lengths off a mark of 160. Also 4 lengths 2nd to Don Poli in a listed 3m1f chase over conventional Aintree fences while giving the winner 5 lbs (coming out best at the weights). Don Poli won the Lexus on his next start and then third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. ie Many Clouds form is of a high enough standard to place in the Gold Cup. No disgrace for Thistlecrack to finish a close runner-up to the game and genuine Many Clouds.
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