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Sir Michael’s on record stating so long as it’s not much worse than good-soft Ulysses will run. He has the form on such a surface albeit at lower level. The possibility that the distance is a tad beyond his best and that he is a better horse on a quicker level are the factors into his price I’d imagine.
Seems a weird decision not to declare Hawkbill given the likely conditions. If I can 20s and 1/4 odds the place on Saturday I’ll probably have an each-way dabble on Benbatl.
I think they realise the horse probably isn’t up to winning a race like this and when they have Jack Hobbs as a main contender, it probably makes sense to hold Hawkbill back especially when you consider how hard a season he’s had already.
He’s an Eclipse winner!
On his best performances, he’d be top 3 in this every day of the week.
I don’t believe many think Hawkbill could win this year’s King George. I like the horse, I backed him to win the Eclipse, but everything fell right for him that day, his main opponent wasn’t at his optimum over the trip and was factually an easier race to win than this is. His finishing positions in Group 1s since the Eclipse are 8-9-3-5-3-6. In my own opinion therefore, the horse is not up to winning a top-class renewal of The King George and connections have made the correct decision to bypass.
Sir Michael’s on record stating so long as it’s not much worse than good-soft Ulysses will run. He has the form on such a surface albeit at lower level. The possibility that the distance is a tad beyond his best and that he is a better horse on a quicker level are the factors into his price I’d imagine.
Ascot’s clerk stated this morning that if there were any more rain then the ground would likely turn ‘soft’ all over. There has been more rain and there’s going to be more before the race. Ulysses is now a stallion prospect so I can’t see that they’ll risk running him in sub-optimal conditions against a filly getting a lot of weight from him.
Sir Michael’s on record stating so long as it’s not much worse than good-soft Ulysses will run. He has the form on such a surface albeit at lower level. The possibility that the distance is a tad beyond his best and that he is a better horse on a quicker level are the factors into his price I’d imagine.
Ascot’s clerk stated this morning that if there were any more rain then the ground would likely turn ‘soft’ all over. There has been more rain and there’s going to be more before the race. Ulysses is now a stallion prospect so I can’t see that they’ll risk running him in sub-optimal conditions against a filly getting a lot of weight from him.
If they get that rain and it does indeed deteriorate the ground further then I agree that Ulysses participation would be unlikely. Hold him back for York.
My 100% book for Soft ground:
Enable 11/8, Jack Hobbs 5/1, Highland Reel 6/1, Idaho 17/2, Ulysses 14/1, Benbatl 16/1, My Dream Boat 50/1, Desert Encounter 50/1, Sixties Song 250/1, Maverick Wave 800/1.Already backed Enable @ 2/1, now had a couple of savers on Idaho 10/1 and Benbatl 18/1.
Value Is EverythingMy 100% book for Soft ground:
Enable 11/8, Jack Hobbs 5/1, Highland Reel 6/1, Idaho 17/2, Ulysses 14/1, Benbatl 16/1, My Dream Boat 50/1, Desert Encounter 50/1, Sixties Song 250/1, Maverick Wave 800/1.Already backed Enable @ 2/1, now had a couple of savers on Idaho 10/1 and Benbatl 18/1.
On soft ground you’d make My Dream Boat 50s and a completely unknown quantity (but one that’s been winning the big races it’s beeen in) at 250/1
If any bookies offer 250/1 tomorrow, I’ll have a play each way.
I plan to see if I can get 100/1 tomorrow anyway.
Enable in a multiple and Sixties Song each way for a small single for me. Good luck folks
My 100% book for Soft ground:
Enable 11/8, Jack Hobbs 5/1, Highland Reel 6/1, Idaho 17/2, Ulysses 14/1, Benbatl 16/1, My Dream Boat 50/1, Desert Encounter 50/1, Sixties Song 250/1, Maverick Wave 800/1.Already backed Enable @ 2/1, now had a couple of savers on Idaho 10/1 and Benbatl 18/1.
On soft ground you’d make My Dream Boat 50s and a completely unknown quantity (but one that’s been winning the big races it’s beeen in) at 250/1
If any bookies offer 250/1 tomorrow, I’ll have a play each way.
I plan to see if I can get 100/1 tomorrow anyway.
Enable in a multiple and Sixties Song each way for a small single for me. Good luck folks
You should remember MOM, those prices are not a betting forecast, they’re what I believe all horses fair chance is.
My Dream Boat goes on soft; but he’s also effective on good ground. Take a look at last year’s Champion Stakes on “Good”. MDB was 5 lengths 4th to the best racehorse of 2016 Almanzor. imo that’s as good as he’s ever done on any ground. Total of 3 lengths behind the (2nd) Arc winner Found. (I know he beat her a neck in the POW last year, but the O’Brien filly did not run to form that day, always far better towards the end of season… Just 1 1/4 lengths in front of MDB in the Champion in 3rd, was Derby second and Sheema Classic winner Jack Hobbs. So I think the “Soft ground” specialist thing is over-done. Not convinced the Cox horse is quite the horse he was last season. Over 2 lengths behind Zarak in France and 2 lengths behind Hawkbill at Newbury. That sort of form simply is not good enough to win this imo.
Sixties Song may be an “unknown quantity” to some, but he is no Orfevre. Hasn’t been that impressive in winning; form isn’t anything spectacular, there’s also a question mark about the ground and breeding. Best on a sounder surface? Sire Sixties Icon is well known in this country and it’s fair to say this Japanese horse has already outshone its pedigree. ie Judged by both form and breeding he’s unlikely to improve further from being an average group 1 winner – seems exposed. This is imo a better Group 1 and on probably softer ground than ideal.
However:
You may like to add a bookies mark up to my prices to get a comparisson.
If adding a bookies mark up to the 2% 50/1 odds, 2% + 1% = 3% = 33/1. My Dream Boat is freely available @ 28/1 (you may well get 33/1 in the morning) and 35/1 is currently on betfair. So my price is in line with what others think.
If adding a bookies mark up to the 0.4% 250/1. 0.4 + 0.4 = 0.8% = 125/1. Sixties Song is available @ 100/1 with bookies and currently 109/1 on betfair. So I’d say my workings out is roughly the same as most form analysts.
Value Is EverythingHaving thought about it and what you said about the rain etc., I’m going in each way on your soft ground choice BENBATL.
Just watched him winning the Hampton Court again from Orderofthegarter and feel that he could spring a surprise if running at that level again. He seems to have some knee action and has run a couple of times on the softer going.
Good luck to all..Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Good to soft, soft in places on the round course
Looks like a big chance of rain early afternoon also.
GL all
Having thought about it and what you said about the rain etc., I’m going in each way on your soft ground choice BENBATL.
Just watched him winning the Hampton Court again from Orderofthegarter and feel that he could spring a surprise if running at that level again. He seems to have some knee action and has run a couple of times on the softer going.
Good luck to all..JacYes Jac, Benbatl acts on a soft surface and stays a mile and a half, not conviced he’ll stay a mile and a half on a soft surface – stamina question. Not bred for this far either. But at the prices worth taking a chance as there’s probably more improvement in him.
Value Is EverythingGiven that further heavy rain is forecast and the going is likely to be Soft at best then JACK HOBBS has to be percentage call as one most favoured by the conditions and having sufficient class. For a place a fancy price try My Dream Boat, another favoured by cut in the ground and not all that far off the top level.
Went in on Idaho as my second bet in the end, I can’t get that image of him cantering through the Leger out of my mind and was half a length away from being an Irish Derby winner on soft ground.
My bets:
Jack Hobbs 10/1 (each-way) & Idaho 10/1 (win only)
Jack Hobbs EW is my small bet in this.Good luck whatever you bet.
If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
I have backed both AOB horses at 11/2 and 12/1. I think Highland Reel is a massive price and I know it supposedly won’t like the ground but could be different gear to these!!
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