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Don’t bother Aidan O’Brien whilst he saddles up nearly half the field again.
Out of the sextet, I think the protagonist and my early selection is for Moonstone. She will benefit greatly from the Musidora run which the good-to-firm and pedestrian pace essentially ruled a line through her chances immediately but she looks the impressive sort to stay on at the finish.
Hard to turn around 7 lengths on Lush Lashes yes, but the added 2 furlongs could prove the difference.
If I am dedicated my alliance to Moonstone for this race then it would silly not to consider Chinese White as well, with similar pedigrees.
I have small doubts about Cape Amber having come on enough to challenge.
Rest of the field is wait and see.
Your thoughts?
Cape Amber will get much closer to Lush Lashes than she did… She was given a lot to do in the musidora and needed the run.
But I agree that chinese white looks the best filly in the race. She’s my bet with a saver on the Cape Amber.
For the record I think this looks like the best Oaks line up in a while, and there are plenty in there that a case could made for for an e/w punt, but still think Chinese White looks an easy enough winner.
Lush Lashes Im not sure will like the ground too much, thought she looked a nassau horse when she won the musdiora, she showed plenty of speed that day, and expect the Oaks to be a bit of a slog.
Chinese White on her Victor McAlmont run looked green as grass but just galloped them into the ground and has looked like a class act on both career starts, hard to believe she isnt a clear favorite with the ground as it is.
Cape Amber ran well in the musidora for a filly who had apparently had an interupted preperation, but then she would have to have got rid of that and progressed, am mnot sure she looked like a relentless galloper though, and that would be what I’d be after.
Clowance who had been quite well supported antepost prior to her debut and ran well enough for a montjeu filly at 1m2f on better ground than she will get tomorrow and she should be much better tomorrow, not sure if shes good enough to win though.
Sugar Mint could be worth a market check tomorrow as she looked well in the cheshire oaks and may like the extra stamina test tomorrow.
Bulwark, with respect, Chinese White is at this stage a filly of potential and nothing more. To say she’s a penalty kick is bordering on ridiculous. She has had only 2 starts, and is yet to race in Group company. The horse who finished behind her in her last race did anything but frank the form next time out.
Listening to hype can be a dangerous thing.
What reasons do you have to support your claim she is a ‘penalty kick’?
Watching her two starts to date, plain and simple, think she’ll be hard to stop with everything looking to be right up her street. Don’t think theres been much hype aboput the horse to be fair she’s always been a horse who punters have liked since her debut demolition job last year, and she has followed up with a green demolition job, when looking very backward at that time.
I don’t know about you salse, but when I look at that horse I just see a class act, in much the same way as lush lashes would look to be a class act for 1m2f or thereabouts on good ground.
I think Cape Amber is very good value at 20/21 currently on Betfair. Not fully wound up when second behing Lush Lashes, and perhaps that day Spencer gave her too much to do.
How can she bridge the gap to Lush Lashes? The different ground from the Musidora should suit her more as she needs to get her toe in, the extra distance may benefit her more than LL (imo) and when Chapple-Hyam says he is trialling a horse with a bigger race in mind, they tend to come on the proverbial bundle in the race that matters most (Dutch Art last year in the Guineas). I also get the impression Lush Lashes may have been at her optimum in the Musidora, and won’t find any further improvement.
I would agree with your assessment Salselon. Spencer did give her too much to do and whilst Lush Lashes probably accelerated quicker Cape Amber went past the rest of the field. All that on her seasonal debut and Chapple-hyam has been pretty clear in saying that she was not wound up. He’s even said he can’t see her out of the first three. With a handier position, 2 more furlongs and peak fitness I would not be surprised to see her beat Lush Lashes. Chinese white is the danger as she will improve massively from her debut as well. Possibly the greenest run i’ve seen from any of the major players.
Pace must have been sloppy in in the Musidora – Cape Amber was travelling lovely towards second place but the bird had flown very quickly.
Speed expectations on Friday?
My problem with Cape Amber is she is still something of a "talking horse". The raw form of her maiden win at 2 is fairly uninspiring, and she was well put in her place by Lush Lashes, a proven Group Class performer at York – finishing just ahead of a similarly unproven maiden winner in Dar Re Mi.
I take your point about Chapple-Hyam’s training methods, but that could equally apply to Authorised in the Dante who managed to win even though we were told he would come on for the run.
I honestly cannot see Cape Amber reversing from with Lush Lashes, but we shall see.
What was the ground like in the Musidora? Quite fast iirc?
Think Cape Amber needs to get her toe in, the fitness advantage LL enjoyed has me considering Cape Amber a much better value bet at 6 times Lush Lashes’ price.
I am not 100% convinced that Cape Amber really wants 1m4f on good-soft. I used to follow her night shift half sister Nyramba and she didnt even get 1mile. Cape Cross can knock up horses over further, but maramba only won over 1mile and am not convinced that what cape amber did at york at 1m2f on gd-fm suggests she want 1m4f on gd-sft, as much as some of the others.
One from that race who definitely didnt like that ground was moonstone, and it was interesting that the horse who beat her on her previous start Winchester was rated right up with Famous Name and Casual Conquest as a horse weld thinks will be holding his own group1s by the end of the season.
My horse is Chinese White with out a shadow of a doubt but there are a couple of long prices with potential in the race, especially as soem didnt handle the trial ground.
Lush Lashes did very little wrong in the Musidora. She’ll do for me.
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Cape Cross has a great record with horses at Epsom which should be in Cape Amber’s favour. I did work on this 2 years ago and the results were quite favourable. Maybe he imparts some sort of "well-balanced" trait to his offspring. I also expect Capable Guest to run well on Saturday.
Off the internet for a few days now, so good luck to everyone with the derby and oaks, my main fancies will be Chinese White (Backed Lush Lashes at 20-1 and would love her to pull it off but think shes up against it on this worse ground at what I think must be her maximum trip and cant believe shes still fav), Youmzain e/w (despite someone else saying that they were better off for not backing him I backed him three times last season and got good priced places 2 of those times, bettingwise he was a better price (place) than dylan thomas (win) in the arc (and probably the king george too).
Although I backed Curtain Call at the start of the season and still give him a good chance I will think about backing another in the race on saturday but havent decided (was thinking of new aproach before he shortened but cant have him at his price now).Good Luck folks…
Never say die Sanders – has Seb got a brother then?
Following her Musidora victory I was convinced that Lush Lashes need only turn up to take this race, but I find myself drastically reappraising the field in light of the ramblings of one Jim Bolger.
More than half of the intended sixteen runners can be dismissed with out a second thought, whether it be due to an insufficient level of form, uninspiring jockey booking (Sugar Mint could be rated 130 and Michael Hills would manage to finish second) or a thoroughly detestable trainer, so I’m left with Katiyra, Clowance, Cape Amber, Chinese White and Michita.Of the quintet I have backed Katiyra and Michita, in the belief that Clowance isn’t quite up to scratch, Cape Amber will be given far too much to do and Chinese White was only impressive in winning a soft ground Listed race, the runner-up from which has been beaten since.
I have a lot of time for Ralph Beckett and hope Look Here runs well, though that is dependent on Sanders being a little more awake this time around.
Never say die Sanders – has Seb got a brother then?
Following her Musidora victory I was convinced that Lush Lashes need only turn up to take this race, but I find myself drastically reappraising the field in light of the ramblings of one Jim Bolger.
More than half of the intended sixteen runners can be dismissed with out a second thought, whether it be due to an insufficient level of form, uninspiring jockey booking (Sugar Mint could be rated 130 and Michael Hills would manage to finish second) or a thoroughly detestable trainer, so I’m left with Katiyra, Clowance, Cape Amber, Chinese White and Michita.Of the quintet I have backed Katiyra and Michita, in the belief that Clowance isn’t quite up to scratch, Cape Amber will be given far too much to do and Chinese White was only impressive in winning a soft ground Listed race, the runner-up from which has been beaten since.
I have a lot of time for Ralph Beckett and hope Look Here runs well, though that is dependent on Sanders being a little more awake this time around.
I wouldn’t be so sure about that. If you listen to PCH on the Racing Post site audio thinghy he quite clearly states that they treated the Musidora as only a trial for Cape Amber. PCH thinks the horse has improved hugely, needs 12f and he expects a huge run from her.
Cape Amber wasn’t really put in the race in the Musidora I think she will be this time.
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