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I backed Cape Amber a couple of weeks ago at a shrewd 8/1 with Ladbrokes (16/1 with them tonight
). Not a big fan of Spencer though, I would have preferred to see Kerrin McEvoy on board. I am amazed that he doesn’t have a ride in the big one tomorrow.Interesting (ish) that Michita is tipped by 5 different tipsters in the RP (incl Topspeed). You rarely see anything outside the first 3 in the betting get any more than 1 or max 2 tips. She’ll probably go off shorter than the 11/1 that totesport are offering as a result of that.
You can bet on it DB- take the 11/1 tonight if they’ll lay you. Chinese White is odds-against to handle Epsom and Lush Lashes is not certain to stay- Michita is the best value left in the race at a double-figure price.
4:05 Epsom Oaks
Lush Lashes has the best form and I would’ve been confident her winning had it been on the firm side. However, she ran poorly on reappearance (heavy) and her fluent action is probably best suited by a sound surface. At around 7/2 it is worth a saver (on good-firm she’d be 2/1). Although out of a mare by July Cup winner Anabaa, she should stay the trip.
Chinese White is from the cross (or should that be nick?) between Darshaan (by his son Dalakhani) and Saddlers Wells family so successful in 1 ½ mile classics. Impressive winner of a listed 9 ½f trial on soft, by 4 ½ lengths. But although she has improvement to come, her price (imo) is too short compared to her form.
Katiyra was second in a 1000 trial on reappearance, bred to be far better at 1 ½ miles. Raced on an easy surface. Is inexperienced but at the price is well worth backing.
Have seen Clowrance twice this year, she does not stand out on looks. Staying on well both times, will be suited by the increased test of stamina and acts well on soft. Her price has contracted only due to Frankie taking the ride.
Sail is capable of better but only just beat Sugar Mint who is not thought a serious threat here.
Cape Amber chased home Lush Lashes and was given a lot to do, but Lush Lashes won easily. Is a half sister to 7f winner Nyramba and from the family of sprinter Gayanne and is a doubtful stayer. Has a fluent action, unraced on a soft surface and doubt she will act on it.
Adored like Chinese White from that same cross. Has a high head carriage but is genuine enough. Can improve further and is the Murtagh chosen one. But the O’Brien team are yet to find a top filly this term.
Moonstone was staying on well after being badly outpaced in the Musidora (4th). Only had her first run this year (like Peeping Fawn). Can improve, especially given a far greater test of stamina. May be worth a saver if (as I expect) punters go against the third string.
Saw Micheta at both Newbury (sweated up) and Goodwood, when much more relaxed in the preliminaries. A big scopey filly who acted well on the undulations at the Sussex track. Did not beat much but stretched clear in the final furlong. Should stay 1 ½ miles and won her maiden on a soft surface. Looks over priced.
Savethisdanceforme is interesting, particularly if more rain falls at Epsom. Ran well on reappearance (heavy) and won a listed race by nine lengths (good-soft). Disappointed in two Guineas, outpaced at Newmarket and the firm surface against her in Ireland. Stoutly bred on the dam’s side of the family. Capable of better on a soft surface / over further. Last year I backed Peeping Fawn at forty something /1 (the only time I backed her). 74/1 looks more than double what it should be.My prices to beat on good-soft.
Lush Lashes 11/4, Katiyra 11/2, Chinese White 13/2, Micheta 8/1, Clowrance 11/1, Adored 15/1, Sail 20/1, Cape Amber 20/1, Moonstone 22/1, Savethisdanceforme 33/1, Look Here 125/1, Saphira’s Fire 125/1, Sugar Mint 200/1, Tiffany Diamond 200/1, Miracle Seeker 800/1, Ice Queen 1000/1.3:25 Epsom Coronation Cup
Getaway impressed as a top class horse in the Jockey Club Stakes, giving weight away, won easily. Race has worked out very well. Showed more speed than previously. A fine big colt, fourth in the Arc but before that thought of as a stayer. Acts well on a soft surface. Will take a lot of beating if acting on the course.
Soldier Of Fortune’s best form (by some way) is the Irish Derby win on soft. If that run does not flatter him has a chance here.
Youmzain is capable but is a stayer at the trip who is always held up. Needs things to go his way. Not the easiest to win with and possibly has a bit of temperament.
Red Rocks won on reappearance but had the form to. Versatile tactically but it is difficult to see him improve.
MacArther’s win at Chester promised more, producing a fine turn of foot to go clear. May well have gone close with a clear run in the St Leger. Probably has not reached his best yet.
Papal Bull is a dog, only consenting to put it all in when he feels like it.
Turbo Linn is interesting, progressive form last year. Promising reappearance, may be able to improve further. However, trainer not in great form and would be a little surprising if she beats an in form Getaway.
Multidimentional needs to improve dramatically for the step up in trip.
Anna Pavlova looks too exposed for this grade.My prices to beat on good-soft.
Getaway 5/4, Soldier Of Fortune 11/4, MacArther 12/1, Youmzain 14/1, Red Rocks 16/1, Papal Bull 33/1, Turbo Linn 50/1, Multidimentional 66/1, Anna Pavlova 66/1, Song Of Hiawatha 2000/1, Big Robert 2000/1,Value Is Everything"the O’Brien team are yet to find a top filly this term".Not entirely true.They won the Irish 1000 guineas beating two very good fillies from the Weld stable. One of which is used as a yard mark to rate the Oxx filly. They will have better no doubt but this was a sterling performance.Watch out.
- Total Posts 17716
GT
Papal Bull definitely is not a ‘dog’.
He is a horse that needs fast ground, but isn’t a speed horse so needs a proper pace.
Given such circumstances he has a near perfect record, the only blemish being the Derby, where he was badly hampered.
Fwiw, I consider Getaway a 4/6 shot for today’s race, and fully expect him to win like one.my ratings for the race are
Lush Lashes 132
savethisdanceforme 123
sail 122
adored 121
chinese white 118
michita 115
cape amber
sugar mint 106
tiffany diamond 106
katiyra 106
clowance 99
miracle seeker 96
saphiras fire 96
ice queen 94
looh here 84
moonstone 82will back Lush Lashes to win
and Savethisdanceforme each way"Papal Bull is a dog, only consenting to put it all in when he feels like it."
A good example of the lazy analysis that I love.
Filter out his runs on anything worse than good/firm and his lifetime record is 41110(mullered in the Derby)14130(btn 5l in the Japan Cup)I reckon Mr Stoute would like a few more dogs like him to train.
Aidan owns this one . Would the lads object if Aidan won for himself for a change? She showed a lot of progress when winning at the Curragh on Guineas week.I have a sneaking liking for her.Is Aidan keeping an ace up his sleeve ?
Now running in the coolmore colours…
"Papal Bull is a dog, only consenting to put it all in when he feels like it."
A good example of the lazy analysis that I love.
Filter out his runs on anything worse than good/firm and his lifetime record is 41110(mullered in the Derby)14130(btn 5l in the Japan Cup)I reckon Mr Stoute would like a few more dogs like him to train.
Lazy? That is a good way of describing Papal Bull.
Of the five jockeys who have ridden Papal Bull only Moore and Fallon have won on him. Prior to Newbury it did look asthough he was better on a sound surface. In the Geoffrey Freer (good-soft) last year he beat Shahin a lot easier than the Princess of Wales (on good-firm). In the latter race he wandered all over the place. A difficult ride. In the Arc Trial (on good-firm) he did not want to know until relenting late on, finishing too late when 3rd to the inferior Halicarnassus. So, he hangs, carries his head high, often slowly away, needs to be stoked up and sometimes does not want to go through with his effort.
Apart from the Princess of Wales Papal Bull had the form to win those races, sometimes had the form to win them easily.
And rated with a squiggle by Timeform, a squiggle means "unreliable, for temperament or other reasons".Who is being lazy Carvills? Anyone can see the form figures without looking deeper.
Mark
Value Is EverythingI don’t think Papal Bull is 100% straight forward, although he should like conditions and think it is very foolish to write him off completely, as stoute can usually get him up to as good level of form a few times in a season and he has proven a few times that he can hold his own in this sort of company. I learnt that lesson when he turned over Red Rocks when Red Rocks as my 2006 Royal Ascot banker.
"Papal Bull is a dog, only consenting to put it all in when he feels like it."
A good example of the lazy analysis that I love.
Filter out his runs on anything worse than good/firm and his lifetime record is 41110(mullered in the Derby)14130(btn 5l in the Japan Cup)I reckon Mr Stoute would like a few more dogs like him to train.
Lazy? That is a good way of describing Papal Bull.
Of the five jockeys who have ridden Papal Bull only Moore and Fallon have won on him. Prior to Newbury it did look asthough he was better on a sound surface. In the Geoffrey Freer (good-soft) last year he beat Shahin a lot easier than the Princess of Wales (on good-firm). In the latter race he wandered all over the place. A difficult ride. In the Arc Trial (on good-firm) he did not want to know until relenting late on, finishing too late when 3rd to the inferior Halicarnassus. So, he hangs, carries his head high, often slowly away, needs to be stoked up and sometimes does not want to go through with his effort.
Apart from the Princess of Wales Papal Bull had the form to win those races, sometimes had the form to win them easily.
And rated with a squiggle by Timeform, a squiggle means "unreliable, for temperament or other reasons".Who is being lazy Carvills? Anyone can see the form figures without looking deeper.
Mark
Ginge, this is the same papal bull who Stoute has convinced his new owners to keep in training, because he thinks he can win a G1, despite them buying him to go to stud? Does not sound like a dog to me – New Approach carries his head funny but everyone thinks he tries.
It is hard not to be impressed by Lush Lashes win last time. There was alot to like but Peter Chapple-Hyam said after the Musidora that he was delighted with Cape Amber and she would come on a ton for the run.
That worries me and I wonder just how good the form was. If Cape Amber badly needed the run then in affect Lush Lashes has beaten very little.
John Ox has a great record here and his Fillies form looks rock solid. Second to Carribean Sunset (Close 3rd in the Irish 1000 guineas), when no doubt not fully wound up, she should be cherry ripe for this.
John Ox has made no secret of the fact he thinks she will win today and that is reason enough for me to oppose Lush Lashes and back Katiyra EW.
Wouldn’t put anyone off backing the favourite but the 3/1-7/2 odds seem very skimpy for a filly who’s form may be suspect.
- Total Posts 17716
Gingertipster.
You really are hilarious!
A couple of days ago you gave us this pearl of wisdom:
“There are many punters who like to think themselves form students but few really are. Unless they buy form books (not just the Racing Post) and understand odds converted to percentages (sorry to mention that again), they have little chance of making a profit”
yet you are prepared to accept Timeform’s squiggle, and price a horse up on it, when you really haven’t a clue as to the horse’s true form.
For your (and Timeform’s ) edification I will list Papal Bull’s achievements under the criteria I highlighted earlier, namely: on faster ground and with a decent pace:Won cl4 maiden 2l
Won cl3 h’cap 1.5l
Won gp3 0.75l
u/p Derby (Badly hampered)
Won gp2 nk
Won gp2 2.5l
Won gp3 4l
btn 5l Japan CupHardly the record of a dog, is it?
I will repeat what I have said many times before, it is pointless drawing up – or pontificating about – tissues, when you have shown, time and time again, that you have little understanding of form.
.
Firefox,
The best filly of last year was beaten 9 lengths on her raccecourse debut, 2 lengths next time, then 3/4 length and then she managed to win. She was subsequently placed in a guineas and the english oaks and then won four G1’s in a row. Horses can improve, especially after only their second start.
If PCH says she was not wound up and will improve, she will improve. He is a trainer who I listen to.
I don’t remember Jim saying the same thing about LL and so I would be amazed if Cape Amber doesn’t make up some ground. Especially if given a better ride.
Lush Lashes already had 4-5 lengths on Cape Amber once Moonstone had peeled to the front in the Musidora – the margin didn’t really change too much from there. One could admit Cape Amber made some ground but once the bird had flown, that was it.
I think Lush Lashes looks like a fitting 10 furlong horse and what I am also worried about is if that barnstorming performance in the Musidora sets her up for Epsom, or took anything out of her.
I think today’s ground will be ideal for Cape Amber and she is by the same sire as Ouija Board out of a family that includes Oh So Sharp and Shantou. Think she may have more in the tank at the finish.
Still quite keen to see Moonstone run a much more improved race.
Three key factors I am taking into account:
– An element of proven class.
– An element of performance which indicates bundles of stamina in stock.
– A bonus element of some liking for the conditions.Hence the opening factor I cannot seem to go past the Musidora as the yardstick to finding the Oaks winner.
I definitely am interested in that American pedigree of Michita.
Gingertipster.
You really are hilarious!
A couple of days ago you gave us this pearl of wisdom:
“There are many punters who like to think themselves form students but few really are. Unless they buy form books (not just the Racing Post) and understand odds converted to percentages (sorry to mention that again), they have little chance of making a profit”
yet you are prepared to accept Timeform’s squiggle, and price a horse up on it, when you really haven’t a clue as to the horse’s true form.
For your (and Timeform’s ) edification I will list Papal Bull’s achievements under the criteria I highlighted earlier, namely: on faster ground and with a decent pace:Won cl4 maiden 2l
Won cl3 h’cap 1.5l
Won gp3 0.75l
u/p Derby (Badly hampered)
Won gp2 nk
Won gp2 2.5l
Won gp3 4l
btn 5l Japan CupHardly the record of a dog, is it?
I will repeat what I have said many times before, it is pointless drawing up – or pontificating about – tissues, when you have shown, time and time again, that you have little understanding of form.
.
Truely hilarious
does it look from what I have said, that I have accepted Timeform’s view without looking through his form? Yes he does run his best races when they are strongly run. But he is a difficult ride even when winning. If you look at his recent wins they have not been in strong races. Even the Pof W the form is not great. Laverock and Shahin have done little since, Lucarno below form in 4th after many races in a short space of time.
Form = one horse against the next, not what races it has won. Have you demonstrated that you know about form Reet?Bulwark,
I do not right off Papul Bulls chance, rated as a 3% chance. If I were a bookie I’d give a price of 22/1.Mark
Value Is EverythingAragorn,
Yes Stoute has convinced the owners to keep the horse in training, possibly in an atempt to get rid of the sqiggle. A sire with a squiggle will not attract good mares, something Coolmoore know well and is probably the reason they have got rid.
Firefox,
The time of the first race is encouraging, I’d say good, good-soft places. I agree Lush Lashes is a value price at anything better than 5/2 now.
Mark
Value Is Everything
). Not a big fan of Spencer though, I would have preferred to see Kerrin McEvoy on board. I am amazed that he doesn’t have a ride in the big one tomorrow.
) edification I will list Papal Bull’s achievements under the criteria I highlighted earlier, namely: on faster ground and with a decent pace:
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